IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC REFORM AND OPENING UP POLICIES ON LOCAL ETHNIC POPULATION LIVING STANDARDS IN CHINA: THE CASE IN TIBET Arthur Holcombe President of the Tibet Poverty Alleviation Fund and Associate at Harvard University’s John Fairbank Center for East Asian Research To be presented at the Conference on Financial Sector Reform in China September 11-13, 2001 Draft August 2001 THE IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC REFORM AND OPENING UP POLICIES ON LOCAL ETHNIC POPULATION LIVING STANDARDS IN CHINA: THE CASE OF TIBET Arthur N. Holcombe1 1. Summary In the early period (1965-1980), economic and social development policies for the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) focused on improving productivity in the traditional agricultural and nomadic livestock sectors as a way to promote economic growth and improved living standards for Tibetan families. With the introduction of Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms and opening up policies in the TAR after the mid-1980's, priority was also given to improving transport and urban infrastructure and services, and to encouraging migration of Han migrant entrepreneurs and semiskilled workers. The policy assumed that migrants from more developed areas of China could provide the range of skills needed for Tibet's rapid economic expansion and modernization processes--skills that were lacking in the local Tibetan population. The economic reform and opening up policies of the 1980s and 1990s led to rapid urban growth and modernization in the TAR, and improved living standards for Han migrant and Tibetan populations employed in urban areas. These policies also contributed to a rapidly increasing income disparity between people living in urban and rural areas, and between Han and Tibetan ethnic populations, as most Tibetans live in rural areas, dependent on traditional agriculture and livestock livelihoods. The reliance on migrant entrepreneurs and semiskilled workers to spearhead rapid growth and modernization in the TAR did help to compensate for the inability of the TAR's own formal and nonformal education system to provide local Tibetans with the skills needed to play these catalytic roles. During the 1980s and 1990s, the TAR government faced difficulties in upgrading and expanding Tibetan language education at the primary and secondary levels, and in implementing vocational and technical skills training to prepare Tibetans for available jobs in the modern sector. The inadequacies of the Tibetan education system frustrated TAR efforts to reduce poverty among Tibetans in rural and urban areas, and contributed to perceptions of the Tibetan culture being inferior and an obstacle to development. The recently introduced Western Development Strategy in the PRC has created new opportunity for the TAR and other Western Provinces to further boost their 1 Arthur N. Holcombe is President of the Tibet Poverty Alleviation Fund and an Associate at the Fairbank Center for East Asian Research at Harvard University. He served as Resident Coordinator of UN Operational Activities in China during 1992-1998. 2 economic growth and development efforts, and to reduce high levels of poverty among local populations. However, to date, priorities for Western Development Strategy investment in the TAR appear to favor transport needed for natural resources development. There are also indications that the major construction activities foreseen under the Western Development Strategy in the TAR will again rely on the skills of migrants, particularly Hans, and will not give priority to local skills training enabling Tibetans to participate substantially from the Western Development investment activities. The paper concludes that TAR development activities, including those associated with the Western Development Strategy, should give greater priority to Tibetan capacity building as an integral part of investments being made. The initial experience of a vocational training center in Nakchu Prefecture being transformed into a secondary level Tibetan "community college" suggests that training of Tibetans for employment in rural and urban semi-skilled jobs is practical and affordable. Such training would also help to stem the further increase of urban-rural and Han-Tibetan income disparities. 2. Early Efforts to Improve Rural Tibetan Living Standards Poverty was deeply rooted in rural Tibet long before the founding of the PRC in 1949. The persistence of poverty since 1965, when the Tibet Autonomous Region was established, is widely believed to be due to a combination of complex and relatively intractable factors, some of which are unique to the physical characteristics of the high Tibetan plateau. They include: 1. Geography and climate, and particularly high altitude and cold temperatures, contribute to frequent droughts, floods, heavy snows in pasture areas, landslides, hailstorms and windstorms that frequently reduce production and threaten family food and income security; 2. Widespread reliance on traditional agricultural and livestock production practices that limit outputs and therefore incomes to a subsistence level; 3. Lack of access to modern production technologies and practices, and to financing that might enable rural households to diversify production and expand small enterprises; 4. Low education levels and widespread illiteracy which exclude rural Tibetans from new ideas and opportunities that might improve productivity and output; 5. Poor quality of drinking water in many areas that in turn contributes to poor health; and 6. Relatively high rural population growth rates exceeding the ability of the local economy and fragile ecosystem to support, resulting in poor nutrition and slowed physical and mental development. (1) Efforts to improve rural living conditions in Tibet were given new impetus after Deng Xiaoping came into power in 1978. He was determined to "solve" the Tibet Question, and sent Hu Yaobang, then the China Communist Party General Secretary, on an inspection tour in 1980. Hu Yaobang was reportedly shocked by the backward economic and social conditions that he found, and instigated a series of social and 3 economic reforms. In particular, the central government decided to introduce a series of preferential measures it hoped would boost agricultural and livestock production and contribute to improved family incomes and living conditions. The more important measures included the following: 1. Abolition of the unpopular agricultural and nomadic livestock area communes, and distribution of land to individual households under the same "household responsibility system" being introduced elsewhere in China at the time; 2. Waiver of local taxes and other fees on agricultural and livestock production and on other rural commercial and industrial activities; 3. Waiver of local fees and other charges on basic rural education and health care services being made available to Tibetan households; 4. Continued substantial central government subsidy of TAR capital and recurrent budget costs (averaging up to 90 percent of the total budget revenues); 5. Requirement that 14 Chinese provincial and municipal governments in more developed areas finance about 250 rural and urban infrastructure, communications, energy, agricultural, irrigation, education and health projects; and 6. Financing of the replacement or restoration of monasteries destroyed during the cultural revolution period (but not other new monasteries). (2) TAR government policies during the 1965-94 period did contribute to the expansion of agricultural and livestock production, and to the reduction of the number of people living below the government's poverty threshold. According to Government data, grain production increased from about 291,000 metric tons in 1965 to 640,000 in 1994, while livestock increased from about 17 million in 1965 to about 22.9 million in 1994. Government data also indicate that the central government spent about 19.1 billion RMB (over $2.3 billion) on development in the TAR during the 1965-1994 period. This financing, which constituted about 87 percent of all financial income during this period, among other things established 113,000 hectares of irrigated farming, reclaimed 20,000 hectares of depleted farmland soils, and established 200,000 hectares of watered grassland for nomadic livestock. (3) Government data also indicate that by 1994, the number of people in poverty, defined as having average annual per capita family income under 500 RMB ($60), had dropped to about 480,000, or about 22 percent of the total population of about 2.2 million at the time. (4) In 1994, the TAR Government launched its first poverty alleviation program. The goal was to eradicate absolute poverty among 275,000 poor people living in 18 nationally and regionally designated poor counties, whose average family per capita annual income was less than 500 RMB. While limited information is available on the extent to which this program was successful in achieving its poverty alleviation goals, it is known that in the first three years, a total of about 700 million RMB was spent, mostly on about 100 poverty alleviation projects. These projects supported the development of rural infrastructure, and the provision of supplies and equipment such as fertilizer and fencing 4 intended to improve agricultural and livestock productivity and output and to promote county and township level enterprises. (5) The poverty alleviation activities did not include small loans targeting individual poor households to finance income generating activities, and in this respect missed an opportunity to reach poor rural households. The unusually heavy snowfalls of 1997-1998 contributed to substantial loss of livestock and income, and to recidivism in the poverty alleviation program. During this period, over 4 million livestock died as a result of being unable to forage for grasses on the snow-covered plains. The TAR government confirmed that the loss of livestock had the effect of doubling the numbers of rural Tibetans under the poverty threshold, particularly in the more northern and western nomad livestock areas. While the poverty alleviation program did not achieve its objectives, it did lay foundations for a more ambitious program now proposed to be carried out by the TAR government during the 10th five year development plan period (2000-2005). During this period, poverty alleviation efforts are to be expanded from the 18 officially designated poor counties to all 75 counties in Tibet, and funds provided by the central government are to be doubled to 6.46 billion RMB ($782 million) for 10 poverty alleviation initiatives. These include: 1. Improved drinking water for rural households to reduce health problems stemming from dependence on polluted drinking water sources; 2. Construction of rural roads to 1000 townships; 3. Construction of simple houses for all nomads lacking permanent dwellings in their winter village areas (as part of the policy of settling all nomads in their administrative village areas); 4. Introduction of electric power in all villages, with extensive use of photovoltaic energy where villages are not connected to power grids; 5. Organization of village people into work teams to undertake rural road construction, small irrigation, drinking water and other such schemes; 6. Resettlement of all nomads out of areas over 5000 meters, moving them to lower administrative village areas and providing them with housing; 7. Relocation of some rural youth to urban areas to be given manual labor jobs and experience in the market economy; 8. Expansion of rural vocational skills training to help build up rural skills; 9. Training of managers for special enterprises with particular promise (eg. cashmere production); and 10. Responsibility of each TAR government unit for getting one village or township out of poverty. (6) The highly ambitious rural poverty alleviation activities were largely based on policies and programs introduced or envisaged during the previous 9th five year development plan period. By mid 2001, funding for the program from the Central Government had just been agreed upon. 5 3. TAR Policies to Promote Investment and Economic Growth In 1992, senior-most leaders at the central government level made a critical decision to provide special incentives to encourage Han, Hui Muslim and other outside entrepreneurs and semi-skilled workers to migrate to the TAR and to play a leading role in its economic growth and development. At the meeting there were two schools of thought. One school advocated that Tibetans should be trained and encouraged to take leading roles in the TAR market economy and modernization process. The other school urged that preparing Tibetans for leading roles would take too long, and that Hans with experience with rapid growth and economic reforms should play the leading role, particularly in the early period. The view of the second school was adopted, and a series of further economic reforms were introduced to facilitate the migration of Han populations willing to seek their fortunes in the TAR. These included: 1. Simplified procedures for Han entrepreneurs and semi-skilled Han workers motivated by income opportunities in the TAR whereby they could become temporary residents of the TAR with only a license or permit which was renewable annually; 2. More flexible work arrangements for Han professionals enabling them to maintain their official residences in mainland China, while receiving the liberal food, housing, schooling, health and other benefits provided with a local residence in the TAR. The liberal residence benefits were often supplemented by generous leave benefits to allow them to visit their families in mainland China and seek alternative employment at the end of their assignments in the TAR; and 3. The declaration of central Tibetan towns to be an official PRC special economic zone with financial incentives to entrepreneurs such as access to credit and tax relief. (7) In Lhasa, the TAR Commercial and Industry Bureau has played an important role in monitoring and facilitating the Han migration process. The Bureau has had three important functions: 1. Registration of all enterprises. The obligatory registration process is designed to monitor enterprise investment activities in the TAR, but also to facilitate access to local benefits, such as space for enterprises to be located, access to local utilities and personal amenities such as housing and schooling for children. There are currently about 34,321 such enterprises formally registered with the Bureau in urban areas. There are reportedly many more that have been established without formal registry. 2. Political training. For Han migrants, this includes advice on policies in the TAR, and how best to take advantage of services available to outside migrants from the various TAR government bureau. For Tibetans, this includes advice on social welfare programs available to those getting poorer as a result of the growing Han predominance in urban employment and product markets. 6 3. Vocational Training. The incentives have had the effect of attracting large numbers of Han entrepreneurs and semi-skilled workers, but also substantial numbers of poor, unskilled and unemployed Han migrants who have been attracted to the TAR by the hope of new economic opportunities for themselves. The Bureau provides periodic training in such areas as: vehicle and bicycle repair, household appliance maintenance and repair; watch repair; cobbler and tailoring skills; and beautician services. Tibetans can also pay the 5-10 RMB fee and receive such training, but generally they are unaware of it, or do not participate for language or other reasons. (8) The incentives and supporting services proved successful in attracting steadily expanding numbers of small Han entrepreneurs, Hui Muslim semi-skilled workers and other trades people after 1992, coming to the TAR from Sichuan, Gansu, and from Eastern provinces. In many cases they have been unemployed or underemployed shopkeepers, laborers and farmers coming with and without families to make money and return to their native villages and cities. They were in effect a "private sector" phenomenon. By 2000, they completely dominated greenhouse vegetable production around Lhasa and other major towns on lands rented from Tibetans. They also dominated in the urban retail, trade, restaurant and increasingly the tourist sectors. There are no clear figures on the total number of non-Tibetan ethnic people in the TAR today. Official government figures suggest that the non-Tibetan population in the TAR was about 5 percent of the total TAR population of 2.44 million in 1998, or about 122,000 in that year.(9) Some observers believe that when taking into account the military presence, and particularly the non-registered Han migrants on temporary permits in the private sector, the number of non-Tibetans in the TAR by 2000 could have been about 15 percent of the total population. In any case, the Han migrant populations stimulated a dynamic urban economic growth process. 4. Income Disparities Resulting from Private Sector Led Growth Since 1994, outside migrants have been contributing decisively to some of the most rapid economic growth of any Province in China--between 9-10 percent per annum according to Government reports. By 1997, the TAR's GDP was about 7.35 billion RMB, or $885 million. The economic growth has been primarily an urban growth process, reflecting the predominantly urban location of the Han population and their investment activities. Data for Lhasa from the TAR Industrial and Commercial Bureau in Table 1 below indicates a predominant influence of Han-owned household enterprises in all main industrial sectors, including the "traditional" handicraft sector generally believed to be a main source of employment and income generation for Tibetan household enterprises. The dominance of Han over Tibetan enterprises in urban areas tends to be reinforced by Han enterprises generally having larger capitalization, better access to outside sources of supply, and more experienced and profit-oriented management. 7 Table 1: Private Industrial and Commercial Households --Lhasa Municipality (1999) Industrial Sector Tibetan "Outside" Household Household Enterprises Enterprises Commercial (Grocery, Electrical Appliances, hardware, 2,040 4,295 Construction Materials, Auto Parts, Grain, other) Services (Entertainment, Restaurants, Hair Dressing, 185 900 Hotels, Dry Cleaning, Photography, Seal Making, other) Handicrafts (Jewelry, Garments, Furniture, other) 28 340 Repair (Auto, Bicycle, Electronic, Watch, other) 12 314 Other 721 2,344 Total 2,986 8,193 Total sales (RMB) 146.4 million 606.6 million Source: Lhasa Industrial and Commercial Bureau There is some recent evidence that the rapidly expanding volume of Han investments has contributed to a growing saturation of urban sector demand for products and services, resulting in an increasing squeeze on profit margins. It may also indicate that the recent rapid growth rate of close to 10 percent per annum may not be sustainable in the longer run. (10) The predominantly urban nature of the growth process has contributed to a growing income disparity. According to government data, during the 1991-1996 period, average per capita annual incomes of urban families increased by 250 percent to 5,030 RMB ($606), while average per capita annual incomes of rural families increased by only 50 percent during this same period to 975 RMB ($117). (11) The continued rapid growth in urban areas suggest that these trends continue to widen income disparities. Because most Tibetan people live in rural areas, the data indicate not only a growing income disparity between urban and rural areas, but also an increasing income disparity between the ethnic Han and Tibetan communities in Tibet. 5. TAR Policy for Tibetan Education and Skills Training The TAR opening up to the outside during the 1990s included development of international tourism, but also opening up to "outside" Han entrepreneurs and workers who possessed experience and skills believed needed for rapid growth and development but not produced by the local TAR education system. (12) Prior to 1980, education for most rural Tibetans of primary school age was limited to 2-3 years in a village community financed school where Tibetan language, arithmetic and "patriotic study" were the main emphasis. These community schools were initially 8 promoted vigorously within the framework of rural communes, which covered the main costs involved. After 1980, education policy changed, giving emphasis to the abolishment of the community schools in favor of much improved six-year state primary schools, frequently planned with five-day boarding facilities to accommodate students from outlying villages. However, many of the ambitious plans for the construction of state schools in rural townships went unimplemented for lack of government funding. As a consequence, many village community schools were closed or consolidated without being replaced by state schools. This led to a precipitous (55 percent) reduction of primary school attendance. By 1980, the TAR Education Bureau had achieved about a 78 percent primary school enrolment rate. After the precipitous fall in enrolment, other factors continued to constrain adequate funding levels for rural education, and by 1995, the enrolment rate achieved in 1978 still not been regained. (13) The TAR Education Bureau is currently giving high priority to universal primary school education, and hopes to have all rural primary school aged children receiving six years of primary education by 2003. In urban areas, it hopes to have all primary school aged children receiving eight years of primary and middle school education by 2003. After 1980, the TAR Education Bureau continued to have problems securing the financing needed to establish a rural state education system providing Tibetan students with the opportunity to proceed upward to middle, secondary, vocational and tertiary schooling. Financing for rural education in Tibet was further complicated by the national education reforms introduced in 1985, which involved the decentralization of responsibility for the financing of basic education to local government (generally at the county level and below) and to households. At this level, available financial resources had to compete with other pressing demands, including support to income and tax generating activities and other social services. Likewise, as a result of central government policy decisions, households were waived of any responsibility to pay school tuition fees, and were to be provided modest schooling stipends to help enable them to pay for other education expenses such as books, clothing and food. A decision was also taken in 1980 to introduce the Tibetan language as the main language of the Tibetan school system at all levels in order to enable Tibetan youth without mastery of Chinese to attend through the secondary level. At the time, Tibetan was the language of instruction at the primary level. Chinese language was introduced at the middle school level, along with basic sciences, which were also taught in Chinese. The failure to implement the decision on Tibetan language tended to be an increasing barrier to Tibetan student advancement at the middle and secondary levels. In the urban areas it also put Tibetans at a disadvantage when competing for school places with Han students. A main reason for not implementing the 1980 decision was the growing number of Han students, particularly in urban areas, unable to function in a Tibetan school medium. The lack of government funding for rural education meant that TAR Education Bureau efforts to expand rural schooling had to depend largely on the maintenance and expansion of village community schools, which were considerably cheaper to build and operate than the envisaged state primary schools. The obvious disadvantage was that 9 most Tibetan youth would continue to receive only 2-3 years of rural community school education, and be ill prepared for employment in semiskilled positions in the modern sector. Table 2 below shows that most Tibetans (about 85 percent of the primary aged students) drop out during or after primary education. Table 2: Educational Statistics for the Tibet Autonomous Region in 1995* Item \ Level No. of Schools No. of Students entering in 1995 No. of Students graduated in 1995 No. of Students attending schools No. of School staff No. of Teaching staff No. of Students to one teacher * TAR Education Bureau Primary 3,950 59,963 14,412 258,651 14,090 13,349 19.38 Secondary 87 12,239 7,155 32,711 3,666 2,834 11.54 Vocational 19 1,707 1,196 5,575 1,463 746 7.47 Tertiary 4 1,175 525 3,878 1,818 782 4.96 A disproportionately large number of the students at the primary, secondary, vocational and tertiary levels are found in urban areas where schools tend to be better equipped, better staffed with teachers, and more likely to graduate students to higher levels. In this connection, while about 14 percent of primary schools were located in urban areas, about 25 percent of the general secondary schools were located in urban areas by 1995. (14) In addition, the TAR had 17 specialized secondary schools, or specialized training attached to general secondary schools, in such fields as agriculture and animal husbandry, finance and business, health care, teacher training, telecommunications and engineering, and art and sports. These specialized vocational and technical secondary schools were mostly located in Lhasa, and oriented toward meeting the specialized skill requirements of the public sector. (15) Particularly in urban areas, the failure to implement the decision on introducing Tibetan at all levels forced Tibetans to compete in their second language for secondary school positions against Han children using their mother tongue. Tibetans who are admitted to the secondary level are then faced with a system broken down into fast and slow streams, based on capacity to master subjects in the Chinese language. This has had the unfortunate effect of placing most Tibetans in the slow stream that tends to have poorer facilities and less qualified teachers. The stream system has become racially inequitable, and tending to reinforce prejudice and resentment between the nationalities. (16) The TAR Bureau of Education has not been able to secure funding for an overall strategy for the training of Tibetans in commercial skills required in the modern urban sector. Rather, focus has been on the training in basic rural skill requirements at four prefecture and county level middle and secondary schools. They include: in Lhasa 10 Municipality, the Dadze and Chushui Middle Schools; in Lhoka Prefecture, the Gongar Middle School; and in Nakchu, the Nakchu Vocational Secondary School. The basic vocational skills taught and current numbers of students, are shown in Table 3 below: Table 3: Trades Training at Four Tibetan Middle and Secondary Schools (2000) Item Chushui Dadze Gongar Nakchu Total Students/Female 1,550/650 361/175 408/147 143/79 Vocational Trainers 11 14 4 6 Veterinary Medicine/Female 89/52 Vegetable Growing/Female 45/35 21/5 96/32 Animal Production/Female 24/0 249/94 Traditional Painting/Female 35/0 36/0 28/0 Weaving Skills/Female 83/57 91/91 Sewing Skills/Female 50/50 75/75 62/62 Carpentry/Female 37/0 65/0 56/0 Automotive Mechanics/ Female 22/0 14/3 86/0 Haircutting Skills/Female 36/0 Horticulture Skills/Female 42/21 Electrician Skills/Female 42/0 Source: Tibet Poverty Alleviation Fund The types of rural vocational training activities conducted at these four schools have recently been extended to 22 other nearby primary and middle schools. With the help of an external donor (the Tibet Poverty Alleviation Fund), the Education Bureau is also currently developing teacher training capacity for the further introduction of such vocational skills curricula in 100 primary and middle schools participating in a 21 county pilot program. These programs are helpful in qualifying rural Tibetan youth for increased income opportunities in the rural sector. They are not oriented toward improving the qualifications of Tibetans for employment as semi-skilled workers in the modern sector. One TAR prefecture level institution, the Nakchu Vocational Training Center, is currently transforming itself into a secondary level "community college" able to respond to local community and employer needs for skilled Tibetan manpower. With external donor support, it is providing rural Tibetan youth who have drifted into Nakchu Municipality with the skills necessary to secure steady employment. The training has been in such skill areas as driving, veterinary medicine, road and building construction trades, tailoring of clothing and restaurant cooking. Starting in September 2001, the Center will also be providing additional training to Tibetan youth and adults in vehicle maintenance and repair skills. On a limited scale, the Center is demonstrating the usefulness of training Tibetans in the basic skills necessary to secure steady work in the modern sector. The TAR Education Bureau is hopeful that the Nakchu secondary level "community college" will serve as a useful model for the later establishment of skills training for Tibetans in other Prefectures. 11 The lack of upward continuity in education available to most Tibetans, together with the lack of readily available skills training qualifying them for semi-skilled jobs in the modern sector helps to ensure a continuing dependence of outside Han migrants to meet skilled manpower needs in the modern sector. At the same time, the presence in the TAR of large numbers of outside migrants tends to block the ability of Tibetans to secure better education, to qualify for better job opportunities, to raise themselves above the TAR's poverty threshold or to improve their sense of self worth as an ethnic community. 6. Tibet and the PRC Western Development Strategy China's campaign to develop the West was announced by Jiang Zemin in June 1999. At that time, the initiative was justified as an effort to reduce poverty among the peoples of the Western regions, and to reverse the growing income gap between Eastern and Western China in order to ensure national stability. A year later, it was being justified more in a national context: providing the minerals and other natural resources critical for the continued development of China's economy, but also helping to ensure the continued stability of local society while contributing to China's ethnic and national unity. (17) Central to the Western Development strategy is investment in "hard infrastructure" such as highways, railways, pipelines, mineral extraction, dams, power stations and irrigation facilities. Limited priority is given to "soft infrastructure" such as health, education and local human capacity building that would enable more local employment and participation in the modernization process. The Western Development strategy to date has also given limited priority to investment in local agriculture and livestock, although over 80 percent of the western population, including particularly the ethnic populations experiencing most acute poverty, are in these two main traditional sectors. While the TAR was not included in the first 10 official Western Development strategy projects in 2000, ongoing state investment in the Tibet's infrastructure indicates the likely nature and social impact of future infrastructure projects. One of the largest ongoing projects in 2001 has been the upgrading of the Yangbaijan-Lhasa segment of the Qinghai to Lhasa highway. This 80 kilometer section of the road passes through a river gorge and is being completely rebuilt with extensive stone abutments and lining work being carried out by very large numbers of migrant Han masons and other highway workers at an estimated cost of about 400 million RMB ($48 million). During June and July 2001, large numbers of Han road construction workers were also engaged in the upgrading of main roads in Lhasa itself. The construction work was consistent with a pattern seen in most Tibetan urban areas over the last decade with central or other provincial government financing. This pattern includes emphasis on the introduction of modern road and urban building construction designs, techniques and materials unfamiliar to local Tibetan workers, and the employment of migrant Han workers familiar with the techniques involved. The first major Western Development project in Tibet is likely to be the railway linking Lhasa (and the TAR) to the national railway system in Qinghai. This link would be a total of 1080 kilometers (with 564 km in Qinghai, and 516 km inside Tibet). During 12 2001, railway surveyors identified the line of the railway essentially parallel to the Qinghai to Lhasa highway, and construction is to start in 2002 and finish in six years at an estimated cost of about 20 billion RMB ($2.4 billion). The one railway station along the route is to be in Amdo County in Nakchu Prefecture close to current gold mining being carried out by Hui Muslim miners, and to a proven gas and oil field in the Lang Tang nature preserve area of northwest Nakchu Prefecture. A second project could be the relocation and consolidation of Tibet University at a new campus site in Lhasa. Important in central government thinking behind the Western Development strategy appears to be the conviction that Western areas lack local populations with required skills and experience in the implementation of major infrastructure development and natural resources exploitation projects. Because of this local skilled manpower deficiency, it is likely that Han migrants will be encouraged to go West and carry out the essential planning, management and skilled manpower roles. At the same time, the initial selection of priority infrastructure investment projects under the Western Development strategy does not appear to correspond with the priority needs of poorest populations in the traditional agricultural and livestock sectors. To the extent that the Western Development strategy is oriented toward the infrastructure needs of the modern sector, and is a source of additional employment for Han migrants, it could further exacerbate income disparities between Han migrants and local Tibetans. It could also further reinforce the rural education, rural poverty, rural opportunity and cultural inferiority traps referred to in the previous section. 7. Conclusions The economic reforms and opening up of the TAR during the 1990s have brought many benefits to Han and Tibetan populations living in urban areas and employed in the modern sector. The fundamental question for the TAR, and for policy makers at the central government level, is how best to spread the benefits of rapid growth and modernization to the relatively poor Tibetan populations depending on subsistence agriculture and nomadic livestock production. In answering the question, it is important to bear in mind the experience of economic reform and opening up policies in the TAR during the 1990s: 1. Urban-oriented rapid growth strategies, relying on economic reform and opening up to outside expertise and resources, have resulted in growing income disparities between urban and rural populations, but also between Han and other non-Tibetan migrants and local ethnic Tibetan populations who live predominantly in rural areas; 2. TAR policies relying on market forces and outside trained and experienced migrants to promote rapid economic growth have had other unintended impacts on Tibetans, including a lower priority for Tibetan skills training, and the effective exclusion of Tibetans from most skilled and semi-skilled job opportunities that offer higher wages and the possibility to rise above the poverty line; 13 3. Poverty alleviation programs directed to poor Tibetan communities in rural areas have lacked the financing and other resources needed to overcome the negative economic and social impacts of urban-oriented economic reform and opening up policies; 4. Education for most Tibetans is compromised by an effective barrier to higher general, vocational and technical education due to financial limitations and failure to implement a 1980 decision on the use of the Tibetan language above the primary school level; 5. On major transport and building construction projects in the TAR, Han and other non-Tibetan migrant laborers have been recruited to carry out the construction work because local Tibetans were not believed to have the requisite skills and experience. The initial Western Development strategy investment in the TAR is for railway construction facilitating mineral resources exploitation, and again is likely to be of main benefit to outside migrant workers with the needed skills. It is not clear to what extent the physical infrastructure and natural resource orientation of the Western Development strategy in Tibet will be accompanied by social investments developing local Tibetan skills and capacities in areas essential for transport and natural resources development. In the TAR, the Education Bureau has recognized the value of the Nakchu Vocational Secondary School being converted into a secondary level "community college" for Tibetans providing a broad range of employable skills training activities. In the future, such community colleges could provide skills training for local populations supporting Western Development strategy investments in all Western provinces. In the longer run, the Western Development strategy should adopt a more balanced and equitable distribution of investment and income generation between urban and rural sectors and ethnic groups. This will require further measures to increase the commercial value to rural producers of output in the agricultural, livestock and rural industry sectors. Such efforts would also have the advantage of promoting a more sustainable development process in Tibet which invests in local human resource capacity and is less reliant on outside capital, expertise and markets for its prosperity. 14 NOTES AND REFERENCES (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) Tibet Poverty Alleviation Fund, Poverty Alleviation in the Tibet Autonomous Region (1998). p. 7. TPAF commissioned the Tibet Academy of Social Sciences of the Tibet Autonomous Region Government to prepare this document to help in guiding its work in Tibet. A comprehensive statement on the contribution of the PRC to Tibet's development since 1950, including reference to the preferential policies introduced after 1979, is provided in "White Paper Gives Facts on Tibet", China Daily, Thursday, February 26, 1998. China's Tibet , Vol. 6, No. 4 1995 p. 2. This edition provides information on gains over 30 years since the TAR was founded. TPAF, op cit p. 6 Ibid. p. 20 Information gathered by the author in discussions with a senior official of the TAR government responsible for oversight of TAR poverty alleviation programs. The high level decisions taken by the senior leaders at the time, and the resulting population movement to Tibet, are summarized in Graham E. Clarke, "The Movement of Population to the West of China: Tibet and Qinghai" in Judith M. Brown and Rosemary Foot, Migration: The Asian Experience, New York: MacMillan/St. Martin's Press, 1994 Based on discussions of the author with an official of the TAR Bureau of Commerce and Industry China Daily, op cit Discussion with Hu Xiaojiang, Harvard doctoral student doing research on perspectives of Han entrepreneurs in Lhasa, Tibet. According to Hu, over investment by Han entrepreneurs in many industrial sectors has contributed to squeezed profits and slowing investment in new commercial enterprises. (July 2000) China Daily, op cit The section on TAR Policy for Tibetan Education and Skills Training draws heavily on the information and perspectives of Catriona Bass, Education in Tibet: Policy and Practice since 1950. Zed Books (London: 1998). Ibid. p. 39 Ibid. p. 141 Ibid. p. 162 Ibid. p. 149 This section draws on discussions the author has had with TAR officials, but also Zeng Peiyan, Minister in Charge of the State Development Planning Commission, "Report on the Implementation of the 1999 Plan for National Economic and Social Development and on the Draft 2000 Plan for National Economic and Social Development" (delivered at the Third Session of the Ninth National People's Congress on March 6, 2000) and "Western Development Strategy: One Strategy, Multiple Agendas" in chinabrief, Vol. III, No. 3, Autumn 2000. pp. 24-27 15
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