Habitat Regulations Assessment for the Southampton Local Plan – Issues and Options Consultation Paper Baseline Evidence Review Report – First Iteration, July 2015 i This page is intentionally blank ii Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Purpose and Structure of Document .................................................................. 1 1.2 Habitats Regulations Assessment Process and Methodology ............................ 2 1.3 Southampton Local Plan .................................................................................... 2 1.4 HRA of earlier plans ........................................................................................... 3 2 European Sites ........................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Introduction......................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Ecological Information about the European Sites ............................................... 5 2.3 Conservation Objectives ..................................................................................... 8 2.4 Key Environmental Conditions Supporting Site Integrity .................................... 8 2.5 Conservation Status ........................................................................................... 8 3 Atmospheric Pollution .......................................................................................... 18 3.1 Description of Impact......................................................................................... 18 3.2 Sites Potentially Affected................................................................................... 19 3.3 Extent of Impact at Present ............................................................................... 19 3.4 Potential impact of the Local Plan ..................................................................... 26 3.5 Data Gaps and Sources ................................................................................... 26 4 Flood Risk and Coastal Squeeze ......................................................................... 27 4.1 Description of Impact ........................................................................................ 27 4.2 Sites Potentially Affected .................................................................................. 28 4.3 Extent of Impact at Present and Potential Impact of CCAP .............................. 28 4.4 Surface water runoff ......................................................................................... 37 4.5 Data Gaps and Sources ................................................................................... 37 5 Effluent Discharge ................................................................................................ 39 5.1 Description of Impact ........................................................................................ 39 5.2 Sites Potentially Affected .................................................................................. 39 5.3 Extent of Impact at Present .............................................................................. 39 5.4 Potential impact of the Local Plan .................................................................... 39 5.5 Data Gaps and Sources ................................................................................... 41 6 Water Demand ....................................................................................................... 44 6.1 Description of Impact ........................................................................................ 44 6.2 Sites Potentially Affected .................................................................................. 44 6.3 Extent of Impact at Present .............................................................................. 44 6.4 Potential impact of the Local Plan .................................................................... 45 iii 6.5 Data Gaps and Sources ................................................................................... 47 7 Recreational Disturbance ..................................................................................... 49 7.1 Description of Impact ........................................................................................ 49 7.2 Sites Potentially Affected .................................................................................. 50 7.3 Extent of Impact at Present .............................................................................. 50 7.4 Potential Impact of Local Plan .......................................................................... 50 7.5 Data Gaps and Sources ................................................................................... 60 8 Site-specific Habitat Loss or Degradation .......................................................... 61 8.1 Description of Impact ........................................................................................ 61 8.2 Sites Potentially Affected .................................................................................. 62 8.3 Potential impact of Local Plan .......................................................................... 62 8.4 Data Gaps and Sources ................................................................................... 64 9 Location and Design of Buildings: Collision Risk, Light, Noise and Vibration65 9.1 Description of Impact ........................................................................................ 65 9.2 Sites Potentially Affected .................................................................................. 66 9.3 Extent of Impact at Present .............................................................................. 66 9.4 Potential impact of Local Plan .......................................................................... 67 9.5 Data Gaps and Sources ................................................................................... 71 10 Conclusion and next steps ................................................................................... 72 10.1 Overview of the Baseline Evidence Review ............................................... 72 10.2 HRA Screening Stage ................................................................................ 72 10.3 In combination effects ................................................................................ 72 Initial Habitats Regulations Screening ...................................................................... 74 References and Bibliography ..................................................................................... 76 iv 1 Introduction 1.1 Purpose and Structure of Document 1.1.1. This report presents an initial review and updating of the evidence base produced by UE Associates in support of the Habitats Regulations Assessment (HRA) of the City Centre Action Plan (CCAP) Development Plan Document (). This review takes into consideration the wider geographic scope of the citywide Local Plan and data that has become available since the CCAP baseline was completed. Text and maps from the following documents has been used where no significant changes to the baseline conditions have been identified: Southampton City Centre Action Plan Habitats Regulations Assessment Baseline Evidence Report, UE Associates for Southampton City Council, 2011 Southampton City Centre Action Plan Habitats Regulations Assessment Proposed Submission Stage, UE Associates for Southampton City Council, 2013 1.1.2 This document is not a screening report but a review of background information and evidence which will be used to inform the HRA. However, an initial screening has been included in Appendix 1. 1.1.3. The report is structured as follows: 1.1.4 Chapter One: introduces the document, outlines the HRA process, and provides the background to the Local Plan, with reference to the Southampton Core Strategy, the City Centre Action Plan (CCAP) and their respective HRAs; Chapter Two: identifies the European sites which are considered to be potential receptors of the likely significant effects of the plan, together with ecological information about these sites; Chapters Three to Nine: provide a review of the evidence in relation to each of seven identified impact types; Chapter Ten: concludes the report. At present, this initial iteration of the HRA baseline is very similar to the CCAP baseline and includes much of the text from that document. Following input from stakeholders this document will be revised to reflect the most up to date data and understanding of the various impacts affecting European sites. To assist with this process, responses to the following questions, plus any other comments, would be helpful: Are the correct European sites being considered? Are there any additional impacts, beyond those detailed in this baseline, which should be considered? 1 Is there any additional data available which should be considered? Are there any more recent reports which should be considered? 1.2 Habitats Regulations Assessment Process and Methodology 1.2.1 The application of HRA to land use plans is a requirement of the Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations 2010 (the Habitats Regulations), the UK’s transposition of European Union Directive 92/43/EEC on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora (the Habitats Directive). HRA must be applied to all Local Development Documents (LDD) in England and Wales and aims to assess the potential effects of a land use plan against the conservation objectives of any sites designated for their nature conservation importance as part of a system known collectively as the Natura 2000 network of European sites. 1.2.2 European sites provide ecological infrastructure for the protection of rare, endangered or vulnerable natural habitats and species of exceptional importance within the European Union. These sites consist of Special Areas of Conservation (SACs, designated under the Habitats Directive), Special Protection Areas (SPAs, designated under European Union Directive 2009/147/EC on the conservation of wild birds (the Birds Directive)) and potential SPAs (pSPA). Meanwhile, Government policy (PPS9 (ODPM, 2005a) and Circular 06/05 (ODPM, 2005b)) recommends that Ramsar sites (UNESCO, 1971) are treated as if they are fully designated European sites for the purposes of considering development proposals that may affect them. 1.2.3 Under regulation 102 of the Habitats Regulations, the assessment must determine whether or not a plan will adversely affect the integrity of the European site(s) concerned, either alone or in combination with other plans and projects. Where effects on ecological integrity are identified, plan makers must first consider alternative ways of achieving the plan’s objectives that avoid significant effects entirely. Where it is not possible to meet objectives through other means, mitigation measures that allow the plan to proceed by removing or reducing significant effects may be considered. If it is impossible to avoid or mitigate the adverse effect, the plan-makers must demonstrate, under the conditions of regulation 103 of the Habitats Regulations, that there are Imperative Reasons of Overriding Public Interest (IROPI) to continue with the proposal. This is widely perceived as an undesirable position and should be avoided if at all possible. 1.2.4 Further information on HRA methodology will be set out in full in the HRA Screening Report, which this Baseline Review precedes. 1.3 Southampton Local Plan Background 1.3.1 The new Local Plan will set out the planning framework for Southampton up to 2036. It will show how the city will grow and how the new homes, shops, businesses and infrastructure needed will be delivered. An Issues and Options paper detailing initial ideas about what will be included has been developed. 2 This paper, which is high level and takes a broad approach includes the following proposals: Attract more economic investment, including continued growth of the Port, the broader marine economy, a new city centre business district centred on the Royal Pier Waterfront and Station Quarter, and investment in industrial areas, for example in the Itchen Riverside Quarter; Plan for further growth and enhancement of the city centre as a major retail, leisure and cultural destination; Support the education and training of the city’s residents; Provide many new homes, and the right type of homes, to meet people’s needs, with major growth in the city centre, along the Itchen Riverside and on other major sites; Continue to regenerate the council’s housing estates to provide more homes and improve the environment and protect attractive residential areas; Support an efficient transport network which minimises congestion and pollution and improves air quality by encouraging more walking, cycling and use of public transport whilst retaining appropriate provision for cars; Protect and enhance the city’s rich heritage, Old Town and its network of green spaces, waterfront access and links, including the Central Parks, Southampton Common and many other valued spaces around the city; Manage and respond to climate change and air quality; Protect and enhance biodiversity and ecology. Development of the Local Plan 1.3.2 The Issues and Options Consultation paper is undergoing consultation from Wednesday 22 July 2015 until Friday 16 October, 2015. Following consideration of comments received, a draft plan will be developed by autumn 2016 with the final plan completed in 2018. 1.4 HRA of earlier plans The CCAP and Core Strategies 1.4.1 The Southampton Core Strategy Partial Review which was initially adopted in January 2010 and then underwent review in 2015 and the City Centre Action Plan which was adopted in March 2015 were both subjected to Habitats Regulations Assessment. 1.4.2 The Core Strategy contains strategic policies and development principles for the city, and provides broad locations for development and regeneration across the range of land uses, including housing, employment, retail, leisure, community facilities, public services and transport provision. It proposed major new development within the city (16,300 dwellings, approximately 130,000 sq m of 3 retailing, and a minimum of 322,000 sq m of offices). The CCAP provided specific policies for the city centre area primarily dealing with retail and office development and delivery of approximately 5,450 dwellings. It also addressed the leisure economy and set out a strategy for a greener centre dealing with green infrastructure, walking and cycling. CCAP Habitats Regulations Baseline Review 1.4.3 The impacts considered in the CCAP Habitats Regulations Baseline Review were carried forward from the Core Strategy Screening Report (Halcrow, 2008). The CCAP HRA set out a number of measures to deal with site specific impacts and proposed joint working initiatives and monitoring to address strategic issues. The final conclusion of the CCAP HRA, based on the identified mitigation, was that the CCAP would not result in significant effects on European sites. 1.4.4 This baseline report is undertaken on the assumption that the impacts identified previously, detailed in Table 1.1 below, are still relevant, however, as part of the consultation on the Local Plan Issues and Options Paper, views are sought on whether there are any additional impacts that should be considered. Table 1.1: List of impacts arising from the Southampton Core Strategy with potential to affect European sites (Source: Halcrow, 2009) European site name Solent and Southampton Water SPA and Ramsar Solent Maritime SAC River Itchen SAC The New Forest SAC, SPA and Ramsar Emer Bog 1.4.4 Nature of impact Recreational disturbance Coastal squeeze Water quality impacts Water resource availability Disturbed flight lines/ ecological connectivity Pollution (chemical, noise, light, air and dust) Recreational disturbance Coastal squeeze Water quality impacts Water resource availability Pollution (chemical, noise, light, air and dust) Water resource availability (flow levels) Water quality impacts Pollution (noise, light, air and dust) Recreational disturbance Air pollution Recreational disturbance Air pollution Hydrology In addition to the sites in Table 1.1, Portsmouth Harbour SPA and Ramsar and Chichester and Langstone Harbours SPA and Ramsar were also included within the scope of the Core Strategy HRA. However, the assessment did not find there to be a risk or likelihood of significant effects on these sites. 4 2 European Sites 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 Drawing on the scope of the Core Strategy HRA and City Centre Action Plan HRA, the sites that are considered in this report are: Chichester and Langstone Harbours SPA / Ramsar; Emer Bog SAC; New Forest SAC / SPA / Ramsar; Portsmouth Harbour SPA / Ramsar; River Itchen SAC; Solent Maritime SAC; and Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar 2.1.2 The European sites bulleted above are depicted in Figures 2.1 and 2.2. 2.2 Ecological Information about the European Sites Site descriptions 2.2.1 An ecological description of each European site is given in the separate appendices document (Appendix I). Qualifying features 2.2.2 The qualifying features of each site (that is, the reasons for which the sites were designated) are listed in Table 2.1 (see also Appendix II separate appendices document). 5 Centre in relation to European Sites, wide area Figure 2.1 City in relation to European sites 6 Figure 2.1: Location of City Centre in relation to European Sites, near area 7 2.3 Conservation Objectives 2.3.1 Natural England is in the process of setting out conservation objectives for all SACs and SPAs, and progress towards these objectives can be taken as an indicator of favourable conservation status at the site. Ramsar sites do not have agreed conservation objectives, but in most instances overlap with SPA site boundaries. However, it should be noted that Ramsar qualifying features can include a range of habitats and non-bird species common to SAC designations, as well as bird species and assemblages and their supporting habitats, which are common to SPAs. 2.3.2 The conservation objectives of the above sites are currently a work in progress and are provided in Appendix III. 2.4 Key Environmental Conditions Supporting Site Integrity 2.4.1 The distinctive characteristics of each European site are potentially vulnerable to a variety of impacts. The key environmental conditions that support the ecological integrity of each site are listed in Appendix IV. 2.5 Conservation Status 2.5.1 The conservation status of a habitat or species can be regarded to be favourable when the following criteria are met (based on the Habitats Directive, Article 1): The area of habitat is stable or increasing within its natural range; The structure and functions of the habitat necessary for its long-term maintenance continue to exist; The population of a species is maintaining itself as viable on a long-term basis; The natural range of a species is stable; and There is sufficient habitat to maintain the species population on a longterm basis. 8 Table 2.1: Qualifying features of European sites around Southampton Solent & Southampton Water SPA Solent & Southampton Water Ramsar Chichester & Langstone SPA Chichester & Langstone Ramsar Breeding Criterion 1 Breeding Criterion 1 - Little Tern Sterna albifrons - Several outstanding wetland habitat types, including unusual double tidal flow, a major sheltered channel, saline lagoons, saltmarshes, estuaries, intertidal flats, shallow coastal waters, grazing marshes, reedbeds, coastal woodland and rocky boulder reefs - Little Tern Sterna albifrons - Two outstanding estuarine basins, the site includes intertidal mudflats, saltmarsh, sand and shingle spits and sand dunes - Shoveler Anas clypeata - Winter assemblage of 76,480 waterfowl (5 year peak mean 1998/99 2002/03) Criterion 2 - Eurasian Teal Anas crecca Criterion 6 - Dark-bellied Brent Goose Branta bernicla - Nationally rare species assemblage - Wigeon Anas penelope Breeding - Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula - Turnstone Arenaria interpres Criterion 5 - Little Tern Sterna albifrons albifrons - Teal Anas crecca - Winter assemblage of 51,343 waterfowl (5 year peak mean 02/03) - Sandwich Tern Sterna sandvicensis - Common Tern Sterna hirundo - Mediterranean Gull Larus melanocephalus - Roseate Tern Sterna dougallii Overwintering - Black-tailed Godwit Limosa islandica Bird Assemblage - Over winter the area regularly supports 51,361 Criterion 6 - Common Tern Sterna hirundo - Sandwich Tern Sterna sandvicensis Overwintering - Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica - Pintail Anas acuta - Dark-bellied Brent Goose Branta bernicla bernicla - Sanderling Calidris alba - Dunlin Calidris alpina alpina Criterion 5 Overwintering - Dark-bellied Brent Goose Branta bernicla bernicla - Dunlin Calidris alpina alpina 9 individual waterfowl (5 year peak mean 1998) Breeding - Sandwich Tern Sterna sandvicensis - Common Tern Sterna hiruno - Little Tern Sterna albifrons - Roseate Tern Sterna dougallii Overwintering - Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa islandica - Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula - Grey Plover Pluvialis squatarola - Red-breasted Merganser Mergus serrator - Common Shelduck Tadorna tadorna - Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata On passage - Grey Plover Pluvialis squatarola - Shelduck Tadorna tadorna - Redshank Tringa totanus - Dark-bellied Brent Goose Bird Assemblage Branta bernicla bernicla - Over winter the area regularly - Teal Anas crecca supports 93,230 individual waterfowl On passage (5yr peak mean 1998) - Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula - Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula - Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa islandica - Common Redshank Tringa totanus totanus Portsmouth Harbour SPA Portsmouth Harbour Ramsar River Itchen SAC Solent Maritime SAC Overwintering Criterion 3 Annex I Habitat Annex I Habitat - Dark-bellied Brent Goose Branta bernicla bernicla - Species assemblage of importance to maintaining - Water courses of plain to montane levels with the Ranunculion fluitantis - Estuaries - Dunlin Calidris alpina alpina - Spartina swards (Spartinion maritimae) 10 - Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa islandica - Red-breasted Merganser Mergus serrator biogeographic biodiversity Criterion 6 and CallitrichoBatrachion vegetation Annex II Species Overwintering - White-clawed (or Atlantic stream) crayfish - Dark-bellied Brent Goose Austropotamobius Branta bernicla bernicla pallipes - Southern damselfly Coenagrion mercuriale - Bullhead Cottus gobio - Brook lamprey Lampetra planeri - Otter Lutra lutra - Atlantic salmon Salmo salar. - Atlantic salt meadows (Glauco-Puccinellietalia maritimae) - Sandbanks - slightly covered by sea water all the time - Mudflats and sandflats not submerged at low tide - Annual vegetation drift lines - Perennial vegetation of stony banks - Salicornia and other annuals colonising mud and sand - Shifting white dunes with Ammophila arenaria - Coastal lagoons Annex II Species - Desmoulin's whorl snail Vertigo moulinsiana 11 The New Forest SPA The New Forest Ramsar The New Forest SAC Emer Bog SAC Breeding Criterion 1 Annex I Habitat Annex I Habitat - Nightjar Caprimulgus europaeus Valley mires and wet heaths are found throughout the site and are of outstanding scientific interest. The mires and heaths are within catchments whose uncultivated and undeveloped state buffer the mires against adverse ecological change. This is the largest concentration of intact valley mires of their type in Britain - Oligotrophic waters containing very few minerals of sandy plains (Littorelletalia uniflorae) - Transition mires and quaking bogs. Criterion 2 - Molinia meadows on calcareous, peaty or clayey-silt-laden soils (Molinion caeruleae) - Woodlark Lullula arborea - Honey Buzzard Pernis apivorus - Dartford Warbler Sylvia undata Overwintering - Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus Diverse assemblage of wetland plants and animals including several nationally rare species. Seven species of nationally rare plant are found on the site, as are at least 65 British Red Data Book species of invertebrate - Oligotrophic to mesotrophic standing waters with vegetation of the Littorelletea uniflorae and/or of the IsoëtoNanojuncetea - Northern Atlantic wet heaths with Erica tetralix - European dry heaths - Depressions on peat substrates of the Rhynchosporion - Atlantic acidophilous beech forests with Ilex and sometimes also Taxus in the shrublayer 12 Criterion 3 The mire habitats are of high ecological quality and diversity and have undisturbed transition zones. The invertebrate fauna of the site is important due to the concentration of rare and scare wetland species. The whole site complex, with its examples of seminatural habitats is essential to the genetic and ecological diversity of southern England (Quercion roboripetraeae or IliciFagenion) - Asperulo-Fagetum beech forests - Old acidophilous oak woods with Quercus robur on sandy plains - Bog woodland * - Alluvial forests with Alnus glutinosa and Fraxinus excelsior (Alno-Padion, Alnion incanae, Salicion albae) - Transition mires and quaking bogs. 13 2.5.2 As an illustration of conservation status it can be helpful to examine the condition status of Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) which often coincide with European sites (Table 2.3). Although it should be noted that SSSIs are designated for national (as opposed to international) nature conservation interest, and so the condition of SSSIs cannot be fully relied upon as an indication of the conservation status of a European site, many of the ecological conditions that help to support site integrity are shared across the designations. Just over half of corresponding SSSI areas (50.34%) are in a favourable condition, while a further 43.38% are listed as unfavourable but recovering. However, a proportion of the total designated area (6.28%) is unfavourable without improvement, or declining or part destroyed. This information is helpfully supplemented by a summary of bird population trend data for the Solent provided in Stillman et al (2009), which states that: The population trends of most species wintering in the Solent reflect the trend in the respective national population. Several species, particularly wildfowl, have increased greatly in the Solent since the 1980s. By contrast, many waders (and shelduck) exhibit long-term declines. The Brent goose population has remained stable despite a recent national decline. There is evidence of local shifts in the location of some winter populations within the Solent, especially from Chichester and Langstone Harbours SPA to Solent and Southampton Water SPA (pintail, shoveler and black-tailed godwit). Furthermore, most species that have declined strongly in the Solent have done so primarily in Chichester and Langstone Harbours SPA (e.g. shelduck, ringed plover, dunlin, bar-tailed godwit), and those species that have increased strongly in the Solent (wigeon, teal, pintail, shoveler, black-tailed godwit) have done so primarily in Solent and Southampton Water SPA. Data on breeding birds is less systematic, but available for most years for the principal sites in the Solent. Tern populations are stable or increasing overall, and local increases are apparent in Langstone Harbour. (Stillman et al, 2009, p44). 14 Table 2.2: Status of SSSIs coinciding with the European sites (Source: Natural England, July 2015) Favourable European site name SSSI name: (%) Chichester and Langstone Harbours Portsmouth Harbour Solent Maritime; Solent & Southampt on Water Unfavourable recovering Unfavourable no change Unfavourable declining (%) (%) (%) Destroyed (%) (part) Chichester Harbour 22.98 77.67 0.24 1.1 0 Sinah Common 0 100 0 0 0 Langstone Harbour 8.96 91.04 0 0 0 Warblington Meadow 100 0 0 0 0 Portsmouth Harbour 11.72 87.75 0.02 0.15 0.35 Brading Marshes to St Helen’s Ledges 41.5 46.69 0 11.8 0 Bouldnor and Hamstead Cliffs 85.02 14.98 0 0 0 Eling and Bury Marshes 11.46 88.54 0 0 0 Hurst Castle & Lymington River Estuary 27.04 70.09 0 2.87 0 Hythe to Calshot Marshes 0 100 0 0 0 King's Quay Shore 95.11 4.68 0 0 0.21 Lee-on-the-Solent to Itchen Estuary 82.49 15.98 1.53 0 0 15 The New Forest Lincegrove and Hackett's Marshes 0 100 0 0 0 Lower Test Valley 100 0 0 0 0 Lymington River Reedbeds 35.5 64.5 0 0 0 Medina Estuary 100 0 0 0 0 Newtown Harbour 89.34 10.31 0 0.35 0 North Solent 63.21 34.94 0.93 0.91 0 Ryde Sands and Wootton Creek 71.92 28.08 0 0 0 Sowley Pond 100 0 0 0 0 Thorness Bay 28.35 0 0 71.65 0 Titchfield Haven 0 96.48 0 3.52 0 Upper Hamble Estuary and Woods 85.94 11.32 2.75 0 0 Whitecliff Bay and Bembridge Ledges 99.07 0 0.93 0 0 Yar Estuary 83.15 16.85 0 0 0 Landford Heath 0 51.97 0 48.03 0 River Avon System 3.48 36.96 56.76 2.8 0 Landford Bog 0 100 0 0 0 16 Langley Wood and Homan's Copse 0 0 98.88 1.12 0 Whiteparish Common 1.27 91.84 6.89 0 0 Loosehanger Copse and Meadows 0 100 0 0 0 The New Forest 53.02 45.74 35 0.88 0.01 Norley Copse and Meadow 58.67 41.33 0 0 0 Roydon Woods 100 0 0 0 0 Lymington River 0 100 0 0 0 North Solent 63.21 34.94 0.93 0.91 0 River Itchen River Itchen 6.89 59.21 27.99 5.51 0.39 Emer Bog Baddesley Common and Emer Bog 0 30.23 69.77 0 0 2011 50.34 43.38 4.26 2 0.02 2015 42.47 45.67 7.89 3.95 0.03 OVERVIEW SUMMARY 17 3 Atmospheric Pollution 3.1 Description of Impact 3.1.1 Air pollution associated with development can cause damage to sensitive habitats and species of European sites, primarily as a result of nitrogen emissions and associated ammonia from traffic generated by residential and commercial developments. The following brief descriptions draw on information presented through the Air Pollution Information System (APIS, 2009). 3.1.2 Eutrophication by nitrogen deposition: consists of the input of nitrogen from NOX (and also ammonia, NH3) emissions by deposition, and is caused primarily by road traffic, as well as energy generation, industrial combustion and agricultural practices. Nitrogen deposition can cause direct damage to heather, mosses, liverworts and lichens, as well as other plant species, because of their sensitivity to additional atmospheric nitrogen inputs, whilst deposition can also lead to long term compositional changes in vegetation and reduced diversity. For example a marked decline in heather and an increased dominance of grasses have been observed throughout the Netherlands and also in the East Anglian Brecklands (see for example Bobbink et al (1993) and Pitcairn et al (1991)). 3.1.3 Atmospheric concentrations of NOX: while plants are able to detoxify and assimilate low exposure to atmospheric NOx, high levels of uptake can lead to detrimental impacts including: Inhibition of pigment biosynthesis, leading to reduced rates of photosynthesis; Water soaking as NO2 molecules attach to lipids in membranes, causing plasmolysis (removal of water) and eventually necrosis; Inhibition of lipid biosynthesis, leading to reduced rates of regeneration and growth; Injury to mitochondria and plastids, essential to internal processing of energy and proteins; Decrease in stomatal conductance of air and water vapour; and Inhibition of CO2 fixation (at least under low light levels). 3.1.4 Over half of all emissions of nitrogen and nitrogen oxides in the UK are the result of vehicle exhausts, with an estimated 92% of those associated with residential development being contributed by road traffic (Dore et al, 2005). Nitrogen emissions and associated ammonia from traffic generated by residential and commercial developments will therefore be the focus of this part of the assessment. The scope can be further refined by concentrating on traffic growth on roads within 200m of European sites, as beyond 200m effects of emissions from this source diminish to the equivalent of background levels (Laxen & Wilson (2002), DfT (2005)). 18 3.2 Sites Potentially Affected 3.2.1 The generation of additional road traffic associated with development under the CCAP may result in significant effects on the ecological integrity of River Itchen SAC, Solent Maritime SAC, Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar, New Forest SAC / SPA / Ramsar and Emer Bog SAC. 3.2.2 It was felt that the development associated with the CCAP would be unlikely to result in sufficient changes in traffic flow to adversely affect Chichester and Langstone Harbour SPA/ Ramsar or Portsmouth Harbour SPA / Ramsar. However, the CCAP boundary excluded the majority of the Port of Southampton, a significant source of heavy goods vehicle journeys, unlike the Local Plan boundary which encompasses the whole port. Vehicles travelling to the port chiefly travel along the M25/M3 and A34/M3 corridors however, some traffic may use the M27/A27 and consequently be in close proximity to these sites. With the port expecting the volume of trade to increase additional vehicle movements can be expected; data suggests that HGV traffic along the M271 to Redbridge roundabout has increased by 61% over the last 14 years with the greatest increase in the last three years. In addition, consent has been granted for a distribution centre and residential development close to Junction 1 of the M271 which will generate further traffic. The potential for impacts on the Chichester and Langstone Harbour SPA/Ramsar and Portsmouth Harbour SPA Ramsar will therefore be considered. 3.2.3 The habitats most sensitive to air pollution present within these sites are, for coastal locations: grazing marsh, saltmarsh, shingle, sand dunes and other littoral and supralittoral rocks and sediments, while for inland areas they are: lowland heathland, beech, oak and bog woodland, mires and bogs, and acid, calcareous and neutral grasslands. 3.2.4 With the exception of Emer Bog SAC, each of the above sites is crossed by or lies within 200m one or more major roads (A roads or motorways) that link with Southampton’s strategic road network. The following sections therefore focus on these sites, and Emer Bog is not considered further. 3.3 Extent of Impact at Present 3.3.1 Critical levels for oxides of nitrogen and ammonia concentrations and critical loads for nitrogen and total acid deposition provide benchmarks for assessing the potential for harm from air pollution. Critical loads relate to the deposition of nitrogen from air to the ground ‘below which significant harmful effects on specified sensitive elements of the environment do not occur according to present knowledge’ and critical levels relate to the concentration of nitrogen in the atmosphere ‘above which direct adverse effects on receptors, such as human beings, plants, ecosystems or materials, may occur according to present knowledge’1. 3.3.2 The tables overleaf (Tables 3.1-3.4) provide data on background critical loads and levels for N and NOx at key locations where parts of the strategic 19 road network pass through or within 200 metres of the European sites under consideration. The figures are derived from the APIS database for N Deposition and NOx based on two 3-year average datasets from 2006-2008 and 2010 - 2012, mapped to a 5km grid resolution. One representative habitat type per site has been selected in order to interrogate APIS. 20 Table 3.1 Updated - Background critical loads and levels for N and NOx: New Forest SAC / SPA / Ramsar New Forest SAC / SPA / Ramsar Lowland Heath (Dwarf Shrub Heath) Location Point 1: M27/A31 passes through the Site (428900,113300 NGR) Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) 2011 2015 Critical Load / level Deposition / concentration Exceedance Deposition / concentration Exceedance 10-20 14.1 4.1 to -5.9 14.7 4.7 to -5.3 30 13.5 -16.5 10.97 -19.03 Change in Exceedance Location Point 2: A35 passes through the Site (433400,110100 NGR) Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) Critical Load / level 2011 Deposition / concentration Exceedance 2015 Deposition / concentration Exceedance 10-20 15.4 5.4 to -4.6 16.24 6.24 to -3.76 30 16.9 -13.1 13.51 -16.49 Change in Exceedance Location Point 3: A36 passes through the Site (428600,119100 NGR) Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) Critical Load / level 2011 Deposition / concentration Exceedance 2015 Deposition / concentration Exceedance Change in Exceedance 10-20 15.8 5.8 to -4.2 16.24 6.24 to -3.76 30 13.1 -16.9 9.88 -20.12 21 Location Point 4: A326 passes along boundary of Site (439700,107600 NGR) Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) 2011 2015 Critical Load / level Deposition / concentration Exceedance Deposition / concentration Exceedance 10-20 12.5 2.5 to -7.5 13.72 3.72 to -6.28 30 15.4 -14.6 14.59 -15.41 Change in Exceedance Table 3.2: Updated Background critical loads and levels for N and NOx: Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar and Solent Maritime SAC Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar and Solent Maritime SAC (Saltmarsh and Grazing marsh) 2 Location Point 5: M27 passes through the Sites (449800,110110 NGR) 2011 2015 Critical Load / Deposition / Deposition / Change in level concentration Exceedance concentration Exceedance Exceedance 16.2 -3.8 to -13.8 17.22 -2.78 to 12.78 20-30 30 27.4 -2.6 25 -5 22 Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) Location Point 6: A27 passes through the Sites (449270,109270 NGR) 2011 2015 Critical Load / Deposition / Deposition / level concentration Exceedance concentration Exceedance Change in Exceedance 20-30 14 -6 to -16 15.4 -4.6 to -14.6 30 32.5 2.5 27.55 -2.45 Location Point 7: A35/A36 passes through the Sites (NGR 436800,113400) Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) Critical Load / level 20-30 30 2011 Deposition / concentration Exceedance 15.1 26.8 -4.9 to -14.9 -3.2 2015 Deposition / concentration Exceedance 16.24 23.8 -3.76 to 13.76 -6.2 Change in Exceedance Location Point 8: M271 passes through the Sites (NGR 437165,114562) Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) Critical Load / level 20-30 30 2011 Deposition / concentration Exceedance 15.1 26.8 -4.9 to -14.9 -3.2 2015 Deposition / concentration Exceedance 16.24 23.8 -3.76 to 13.76 -6.2 Change in Exceedance 23 Table 3.3: Updated Background critical loads and levels for N and NOx: Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar (Saltmarsh and Grazing marsh) Location Point 9: A3024 passes through Site (NGR 443430,113150) 2011 2015 Critical Load / Deposition / Deposition / level concentration Exceedance concentration Exceedance 20-30 30 10.5 3.2 -9.5 to -19.5 -26.8 15.68 34.94 -4.32 to 14.32 4.94 Change in Exceedance Table 3.4: Updated Background critical loads and levels for N and NOx: River Itchen SAC Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) River Itchen SAC (Lowland wood pastures) 3 Location Point 10: M27/A27 passes through the Site (445200,115800 NGR) 2011 2015 Critical Load / Deposition / Deposition / level concentration Exceedance concentration Exceedance Change in Exceedance 10-20 30 30.2 30.1 20.2 to 10.2 0.1 30.8 21.47 20.8 to 10.8 -8.53 Location Point 11: M3 (south) passes through the Site (447900,126500 NGR) 2011 2015 Critical Load / Deposition / Deposition / level concentration Exceedance concentration Exceedance Change in Exceedance 10-20 33.7 23.7 to 13.7 34.02 24.02 to 14.02 24 NOx (µg m-3) Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) Year Pollutant N Deposition (kg N/ha/year) NOx (µg m-3) 30 25.7 -4.3 16.84 -13.16 Location Point 12: A34 passes through the Site (449400,131700 NGR) 2011 2015 Critical Load / Deposition / Deposition / level concentration Exceedance concentration Exceedance 10-20 30 34.3 22.1 24.3 to 14.3 -7.9 24.86 to 14.86 -15.51 34.86 14.49 Change in Exceedance Location Point 13: M3 (north) passes through the Site (445000,132600 NGR) 2011 2015 Critical Load / Deposition / Deposition / level concentration Exceedance concentration Exceedance Change in Exceedance 10-20 34.3 24.3 to 14.3 24.86 to 34.86 14.86 30 22.1 -7.9 14.49 -15.51 25 3.4 Potential impact of the Local Plan 3.4.1 The figures in the 2011 column illustrate the situation at the time the CCAP baseline was compiled whilst the 2015 provides an update. Looking at the two sets of figures it is clear that an increase in nitrogen deposition has occurred in the majority of locations. Additional development within the Local Plan, both residential and commercial, has the potential to further increase traffic volumes. 3.4.2 The emphasis within the Local Plan will be to support and prioritise a modal shift away from the private car to more sustainable modes and provide a link to the strategic transport policies and objectives of the Local Transport Plan (LTP). Work is starting on the fourth Local Transport Plan (LTP4) which will include an updated data from the Sub-Regional Transport Model (SRTM) and a City Centre Microsim model incorporating the development aspirations from the Local Plan that underpin the LTP. 3.4.3 The impact of poor air quality on human health is currently a major concern within Southampton; in May 2014 an update of the World Health Organisation (WHO) report on Ambient Air Pollution in Cities named Southampton as one of the worst cities in the UK to be breaching air pollution safety guidelines. In response an A Low Emissions Strategy, which will focus primarily on vehicle emissions is being developed. Although intended to improve air quality for human health, measures within the strategy will have beneficial effects for the European sites. 3.5 Data Gaps and Sources Data Gaps 3.5.1 Further data is required on the contribution to pollutant levels associated with traffic flow from the new development proposed by the Local Plan. Data Sources • Air Pollution Information System (APIS) website www.apis.ac.uk • Road transport emissions impacts on Nature Conservation Sites (AEA Technology, 2010, for the Partnership for Urban South Hampshire) • Southampton and Eastleigh LDF Core Strategies Transport Impact Assessment: Stage 1 and Stage 2 (Mott MacDonald, April 2009 and June 2009) • Review of Air Quality Mitigation Measures in Land Use and Spatial Planning in the UK (UE Associates, draft 2009, for the Environment Agency) • Citywide Local Plan: Issues and Options Consultation Paper, Southampton City Council, July 2015 26 4 Flood Risk and Coastal Squeeze 4.1 Description of Impact 4.1.1 Southampton has approximately 35km of tidal frontage including the River Test and River Itchen estuaries, which join to form Southampton Water (Atkins 2007). Land uses along this shoreline encompass marine and coastal industries, including the Port of Southampton, commercial, residential and transport infrastructure plus significant natural and historic assets. Although the risk of tidal flooding is relatively low at present, approximately 13% of the city is identified as currently at high or medium risk, sea level rise is expected to lead to a significant increase in flood risk. Some of the areas at greatest risk are key development sites within the city centre and along the River Itchen. Figure 4.1: Tidal flood risk to the City Centre in years 2010, 2055, 2070 and 2115. Map depicts areas in Flood Zone 3 in each of these years. (Source: Capita Symonds 2010) 4.1.2 The North Solent Shoreline Management Plan (SMP; NFDC, 2010) recommends a long term policy of ‘hold the line’ (HTL) for urban and industrial areas of the SMP shoreline, including the sections of frontage that fall within the City Centre area. A policy of HTL means the existing level of protection will be maintained and upgraded where it is economically viable to do so, in order to protect life and property along the extensively developed sections of the estuaries (NFDC, 2010). This policy however has potential impacts on designated sites via a process of ‘coastal squeeze’, whereby habitats are prevented from migrating landwards by fixed defences, as sea level rises. 27 4.1.3 Beneath the North Solent SMP there are two further strategies that focus on delivery of the Shoreline Management Plan (SMP), covering more localised stretches of shoreline in Southampton: Coastal Defence Strategy (CDS) for the River Itchen, Weston Shore, Netley & Hamble; The Southampton Coastal Erosion and Flood Risk Management Strategy (CEFRMS) (covering the coastline from Redbridge to Woodmill). 4.2 Sites Potentially Affected 4.2.1 The Local Plan area encompasses the entire city and consequently, designated habitats running along the coastline and Rivers Itchen and Test could be affected directly by new sea defences intended to protect existing and new development and indirectly through coastal squeeze. Indirect impacts including disturbance from noise, vibration, human presence, lighting and mobilisation of silt, arising from construction activities associated with installation of new sea defences, could also affect Atlantic salmon, a feature of interest of the River Itchen SAC. 4.2.2 Maintenance and improvement of flood defences may therefore have impacts on the River Itchen SAC, the Solent Maritime SAC Solent, Southampton Water SPA and Ramsar site. 4.3 Extent of Impact at Present and Potential Impact of CCAP 4.3.1 The Solent Maritime SAC, Solent and Southampton Water SPA and Ramsar sites and Solent Maritime SAC are already subject to the impacts of coastal squeeze (JNCC; English Nature 2001). Maintenance and upgrading of defences may therefore result in continued loss of inter-tidal habitats through coastal squeeze. The level of impact upon salmon is currently unknown. North Solent SMP 4.3.2 The SMP policy units covering Southampton are as follows: 5c10 Netley Castle to Weston Point 5c11 Weston Point to Woodmill Lane 5c12 Woodmill Lane to Redbridge 5c13 Lower Test Valley These policy units can be seen in see Figure 4.2 below. 28 Figure 4.2: Map of SMP Policy Units: Source NFDC 2010 4.3.3 The policies for Units 5c10 to 5c13 are shown in Table 4 below: Policy Units Epoch 1 0-20 yrs Epoch 2 20-50 yrs Epoch 3 50-100 yrs 5C10 Netley Castle Weston Point HTL HTL HTL 5C11 Weston Point Woodmill Lane HTL HTL NAI* * requirement for more detailed study for management for management of site that recognises coastal change and investigates property level defence options 5C12 Woodmill Lane Redbridge HTL HTL HTL 5C13 Lower Test Valley Lower Test Valley NAI NAI NAI Key - HTL = Hold the Line; MR = Managed Realignment NAI = No Active Intervention; NPFA = No Public Funding Available; RTE = Regulated Tidal Exchange 4.3.4 In order to assess the coastal squeeze risks associated with the ‘Hold the Line’ policy the SMP AA referred to the current defences for each policy unit, and assessed the likely habitat change that would result from its implementation. This was based on the Defence Assessment carried out to inform the SMP (NFDC 2010, Appendix C2), which set out details of the defences for each section of frontage across the SMP area. The coastal frontage of the City was at the time composed of seven units (TEST5b, TEST6, ITCH1 – ITCH4 and NET1): see Table 4.1 overleaf. 29 Table 4.1: Extract from SMP Defence Assessment, summarising type, residual life and condition of defences for management units corresponding to the City’s coastal frontage (Source: NFDC 2010, Appendix C2, p.32) Management Unit Start of Unit End of Unit Start Coordinates TEST5 TEST6 Redbridge Southampton Port Residual Life Defence Type End Coordinates Brief description of the type of defence present Unknown Years Condition Natural Features Based on NFCDD Grades Based on Future COAST (foreshore type, condition) 436641 112540 436673 113326 Sea wall/ Revetment/ Saltmarsh 436738 113462 437093 113587 Natural Embankment Unknown 436673 441529 113326 111180 441529 441767 111180 110961 Quay Sea Wall Revetment Unknown 10 0 3 0 Unknown Inter-tidal mudflats, eroding saltmarsh Dredged Channel Source Aerial Photography SCC SCC SCC ITCH1 Southampton Port Ocean Village 441767 110961 443012 110575 Quay Sea Wall 5 3 SCC ITCH2 Ocean Village Woodmill Lane Bridge 443012 110575 443186 111155 Quay Sea Wall 10 3 SCC 443186 111155 443182 111244 Revetment 10 2 443182 111237 443169 111376 Revetment 10 1 443169 111376 443011 111525 Sea wall 10 4 443011 111525 443468 112860 Sea wall 10 2 SCC 443466 112859 443180 112882 Revetment 5 2 SCC Inter-tidal mudflats, navigable channel SCC SCC SCC 30 443180 112882 442909 113150 Embankment 10 1 SCC 442909 113150 443088 113525 Embankment 10 3 SCC 443088 113525 443176 113631 Sea wall 10 4 SCC 443176 113631 443412 113661 Piling 10 3 SCC 443412 113661 443596 113784 Piling 10 3 SCC 443596 113784 443704 114080 Sea wall 10 3 SCC 443704 114080 443596 114344 Revetment 10 2 SCC 443596 114344 443571 114618 Embankment 10 4 SCC 443571 114618 443891 115276 Sea wall 10 2 SCC ITCH3 Woodmill Lane Bridge Cobden Bridge 443891 115276 443731 115002 Revetment 10 2 SCC ITCH4 Cobden Bridge Weston Point 443731 115002 443869 114050 Revetment 10 1 SCC 443869 114050 443303 113406 Sea Wall 10 4 SCC 443303 113406 443308 113084 Sea Wall 10 2 SCC 443309 113084 443397 113175 Sea Wall 5 3 SCC 443397 113175 443592 113129 Sea Wall 5 4 SCC 443593 113129 443838 113189 Revetment 5 4 SCC 443838 113189 444052 112374 Sea Wall 5 4 SCC 444051 112374 443536 111368 Revetment 5 4 SCC 443539 111367 443410 110736 Sea wall 10 4 SCC 443410 110736 443400 110497 Gabions 10 4 SCC 443400 110497 443419 110313 Sea wall 10 4 SCC 443420 110313 443488 110182 Embankment 5 4 NET1 Weston Point Netley Castle 443488 110182 445071 108854 Beach N/A 0 SCC Inter-tidal mudflats SCC 31 4.3.5 The defences for the City are represented visually in the Level 2 Strategic Flood Risk Assessment for Southampton in a ‘defence overview’ map, reproduced in Figure 4.3 below. Figure 4.3: Overview of flood defences in Southampton. (Source: Capita Symonds, 2010) 4.3.6 The Appropriate Assessment of the North Solent SMP (NFDC, 2010, Appendix J) assesses the likely significant impacts of the SMP policies. The findings indicate that ‘hold the line’ policies will have potential impacts on mudflat and saltmarsh habitats through coastal squeeze processes and potential sitespecific effects on coastal vegetated shingle and unvegetated shingle. HTL policies were not found to have likely significant effects on habitats located behind defences. 4.3.7 The Appropriate Assessment quantifies the extent of habitat losses anticipated as a result of implementing all SMP policies; Table 4.2 summarises the findings of the assessment in relation to estimated habitat loss within Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar over the next 100 years, which policies 5c10, 5c11 and 5c12 may contribute to. 32 Table 4.2: Habitat losses and gains in the Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar as a result of SMP policies (Source: NFDC, 2010, Appendix J, p.64) 4.3.8 The loss of saltmarsh habitat will be compensated through the Regional Habitat Creation Programme, which aims to provide strategic delivery of compensatory habitats as identified through the HRA of the SMP, as well as compensatory habitats required to offset coastal squeeze losses caused by the continued maintenance of existing third party defences (NFDC, 2010). 4.3.9 The following subsections look at the additional available evidence on the implications of flood defence policies that may be of assistance when assessing the likely effects of the Local Plan in relation to coastal squeeze. River Itchen, Weston Shore, Netley & Hamble Coastal Defence Strategy 4.3.10 A Coastal Defence Strategy (CDS) for the River Itchen, Weston Shore, Netley & Hamble was published in November 2011. This document provides a more detailed basis for decision making and action related to the management of these frontages, which form part of the area dealt with by the North Solent SMP within the jurisdictions of Southampton City Council, Eastleigh Borough Council and Fareham Borough Council. 4.3.11 The published document includes three management units, ITCH3, ITCH4 and NET1 whose defence policies will be of relevance to coastal squeeze impacts in combination with those associated with defences for the Local Plan. These are shown in Figure 4.4. 33 Figure 4.4: Overview map of the CDS study area showing its composite Policy Units (Source: Mouchel 2011b) 4.3.12 The recommended policy options for unit ITCH4 are to maintain the currently defended portions in the short and medium term (0-50 years), and then to apply a policy of no active intervention thereafter (Mouchel, 2012: p.10-4). The HRA for the CDS (Mouchel, 2011) found that the preferred policies (all units) would result in significant loss of designated habitat within Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar and although it also predicted that there would be negligible impacts on designated species. The extent of the losses are detailed in Table 4.3 below. These losses were also considered in-combination with the North Solent Shoreline Management Plan and concluded that although the losses were relatively small in the context of the whole site they were significant. An assessment of alternative options has been undertaken and compensatory recommendations made. These will be delivered through the Environment Agency’s Regional Habitat Creation Programme (Mouchel 2011a). 34 Table 4.3 Preferred Policy Calculation of Intertidal Designated Area Loss/Gain (Solent & Southampton Water SPA and Ramsar) from selected Policy Units Preferred Policies Relevant to the Solent & Southampton Water SPA and Ramsar 2106 2056 2026 2006 YEAR Designate d Areas (Official Desig. Area + Designated Area additional w ith no Intertidal gain Range w ithin im m ediate boundarie s) Potential Potential Gain of Gain of Designate Designate Intertidal Net d Area d Area Habitat Loss/Gain w ithin w ithin outside of im m ediate Intertidal immediate Designated Designate Range Designated Area d Area Area Boundarie Boundaries s SITE POLICY ITCH3 - 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.81 0.00 ITCH4 - 56.65 0.99 43.93 11.73 11.51 0.00 NET1 - 90 0.38 64.08 25.54 0.00 0.00 ITCH3 AI 0 0 0 0 2.84 0 ITCH4 AI 53.17 1.09 43.84 8.24 10.54 -3.48 NET1 AI 79.78 0.76 63.7 15.32 0 -10.22 ITCH3 AI 0 0 0 0 2.94 0 ITCH4 AI 52.53 1.12 43.8 7.61 10.42 -4.12 NET1 AI 78.47 0.8 63.66 14.01 0 -11.53 ITCH3 NAI 0 0 0 0 3.38 0 ITCH4 NAI 47.87 31.39 13.54 2.95 6.05 -8.78 NET1 AI 65.45 9.51 54.95 0.99 0 -24.55 The Southampton Coastal Strategy: Redbridge to Woodmill Lane 4.3.13 The Southampton Coastal Flood and Erosion Risk Management Strategy, which covers a 22km stretch of the coast from Redbridge to Woodmill Lane, was completed in 2013. This provides detailed assessment of future flood risk management options for the implementation of North Solent SMP policy unit 5c12, Redbridge to Woodmill Lane. 4.3.14 A Habitats Regulations Assessment was undertaken as part of the development of the strategy. Coastal squeeze was considered to be the principle impact arising from the strategy’s policies with the potential to affect designated intertidal habitats as well as bird species and salmon supported by these habitats. It was concluded that the preferred options will have no adverse effect on intertidal habitats and associated species, over and above those already identified and accounted for within the SMP, except for a potential local adverse effect on intertidal area at Redbridge beyond 2060. Project level HRAs will need to be completed where necessary to ensure no likely significant effects for individual schemes (URS 2013). 35 Level 2 Strategic Flood Risk Assessment for Southampton 4.3.15 A Level 2 Strategic Flood Risk Assessment (SFRA2), designed to demonstrate how development can remain ‘safe’ from tidal flooding for the lifetime of development, was undertaken in 2010 (Capita Symonds, 2010). This document is currently undergoing revision and an updated version is due to be published within the next twelve months. The current SFRA2 included within its scope a detailed assessment of eight key development sites, shown in Figure 4.5, within the city centre area, to inform the emerging City Centre Action Plan (CCAP) and Site Allocations DPD and facilitate the application of the Sequential and Exception Tests at the site level. For each site examined, it discusses flood risk management according to three broad management options (summarised from Capita Symonds, 2010, Volume 3, p.1-3): Strategic Precautionary Approach - refers to a city-wide solution that would positively benefit the development sites as well as Southampton as a whole. A broad assessment of this option and benefits to the development sites is considered, however the SFRA does not seek to replace the need to undertake the Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy for Southampton (Redbridge to Woodmill Lane) which is expected to detail how protection can be provided to the City Centre. Site-specific Flood Risk Management - refers to development of individual flood risk management measures at each of the development sites, as might be expected if development is brought forward in isolation. This could include measures such as land raising, raised floor levels, and restrictions on ground floor uses. Figure 4.5: Development Sites examined in SFRA2 (Source: Capita Symonds, 2010: Volume 3) 36 Managed Adaptive Approach - a more flexible approach, adapting as flood risk changes over the lifetime of development and may include a combination of strategic and site specific options. This approach looks at the potential implementation of a strategic flood risk management solution which would protect the development sites (but will not be constructed until some time into the future), and therefore, interim (site specific) measures are necessary (phasing of development, partial land raising, defence measures to protect against climate change etc.). 4.4 Surface water runoff 4.4.1 A related issue is that impacts on water quality can be caused by polluted surface water runoff. There is a potential pathway for this impact to occur either through contaminated runoff from roads and buildings or the mobilisation of historic contamination during construction works. Development brought forward under the Local Plan could result in pathways for surface water contamination to affect the integrity of the Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar, the Solent Maritime SAC and River Itchen SAC. 4.4.2 Details of the potential impacts are set out in relation to Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar and Solent Maritime SAC by English Nature (2001), whose detailed operations advice for these sites describes how such contaminants can impact on qualifying species. In the case of the Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar, contaminants can build up in the food chain, resulting in toxic effects on birds and their prey. In relation to the Solent Maritime SAC, toxic contamination impacts can have both lethal effects resulting in the loss of key predators, and ‘sub-lethal’ effects on the healthy functioning of organisms. In relation to the River Itchen SAC, there would be potential for contamination to affect Atlantic salmon as they migrate from their spawning ground in the SAC to Southampton Water (English Nature, 2001). 4.4.3 The SFRA2 notes that the highly urbanised nature of Southampton and its underlying geology mean large volumes of surface water runoff can be generated (Capita Symonds 2010: Volume 1). It also refers to the risk that ‘construction works involving earth movement and excavations and the use of plant adjacent to the river has the potential to generate contamination pathways if contamination is present in these areas’ (Capita Symonds 2010, Volume 3, p.A8). Such construction works could be associated with waterfront development, and / or flood defence works carried out to ensure protection of such development. Although the SMP notes that its HTL policies will provide protection from contaminants that may otherwise be released into coastal waters as a result of tidal flooding and erosion (NFDC, 2010), the risk that the flood defence works themselves could mobilise contaminants is an important issue for consideration at the site level. 4.5 Data Gaps and Sources Data Gaps 4.5.1 In relation to the risks associated with pollution from surface runoff, the SFRA2 highlights a lack of data on contaminated land from readily accessible sources, 37 but observes that current uses of the land next to the River Itchen suggests there may be potential for contamination (Capita Symonds data on historic contamination is therefore required. In addition, the findings of the forthcoming Surface Water Management Plan will be an important data source when it becomes available. 4.5.3 While the SFRA2’s assessment of actual tidal flood risk in Southampton has used the Tidal Itchen Flood Hazard Study scenarios, this does not cover the western parts of Southampton. Its risk assessment for these parts of the city is therefore based on the PUSH SFRA, but the Environment Agency has commissioned further hydraulic modelling to quantify the assessment of flood hazard on the River Test, which will provide a consistent detailed assessment of tidal flood hazard and should be used to update the SFRA once available (Capita Symonds, 2010). 4.5.4 Through the development of the SMP, informed by its HRA, the Environment Agency and Natural England have agreed that compensatory habitat will be provided via the Regional Habitat Creation Programme (RHCP). However, since 60% of defences along the SMP coastline in private ownership, ‘there is an element of risk to designated SPA and Ramsar sites situated behind third party defences. There is also an element of risk to designated SPA and Ramsar sites where the final SMP policy is HTL with further detailed studies required to consider whether MR [Managed Realignment] may occur’ (NFDC, 2010, Appendix J, p.59). Although these ‘at risk’ sites have been taken into consideration in the RHCP, it is not currently be known to what degree private landowners will deviate from SMP policies. Data Sources • North Solent Shoreline Management Plan and accompanying Appropriate Assessment (New Forest District Council, December 2010) • River Itchen, Weston Shore, Netley & Hamble Coastal Defence Strategy (Mouchel, 2011), and accompanying Appropriate Assessment (Mouchel, 2011) • The Southampton Coastal Flood and Erosion Risk Management Strategy and accompanying Habitats Regulations Assessment (URS 2013) • Level 2 Strategic Flood Risk Assessment for Southampton (Capita Symonds, 2010) • Solent Dynamic Coast Project (Channel Coast Observatory, 2008) • South Hampshire Integrated Water Management Strategy (Atkins, 2009, for the Partnership for Urban South Hampshire) 38 5 Effluent Discharge 5.1 Description of Impact 5.1.1 Water pollution associated with development can impact on the qualifying features of designated sites, through waste water discharges. Nutrient enrichment and in particular nitrogen (N) pollution can arise from waste water treatment required in support of planned residential development. The Environment Agency has identified the effects of nutrient enrichment in the form of dense macro algal mats which reduce dissolved oxygen content and impacts on food availability by depleting the numbers of invertebrates present in the intertidal areas. 5.1.2 The Core Strategy HRA identified potential impacts from wastewater discharges associated with planned growth in the city in relation to Solent and Southampton Water SPA and Ramsar, Solent Maritime SAC and River Itchen SAC. The HRA recommended (inter alia) that ‘When considering development proposals and future site allocations the Council should take into account existing sewage treatment capacity.’ (Halcrow 2009, p15). 5.1.3 It is therefore important to investigate whether growth associated with the Local Plan could result in sewage discharges or polluted surface water runoff (see Chapter 4) that could potentially threaten the above sites. 5.2 Sites Potentially Affected 5.2.1 The city is served by Southern Water’s Millbrook, Portswood and Woolston wastewater treatment works (WWTW), which discharge treated effluent into the Rivers Test and Itchen respectively (Atkins 2009; www.water-technology.net). There is therefore a potential pathway to the Solent and Southampton Water SPA and Ramsar, and the Solent Maritime SAC. 5.3 Extent of Impact at Present 5.3.1 Impacts from wastewater effluent / discharge are identified as a vulnerability for Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar and Solent Maritime SAC (Source: JNCC Data Forms for these sites). The Environment Agency Review of Consents (RoC) process under the Habitats Regulations for both Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar and Solent Maritime SAC identified that large discharges from WWTWs can contribute to high levels of nutrients in the system, with likely significant effects to site integrity. 5.4 Potential impact of the Local Plan 5.4.1 The Local Plan will provide for the delivery of additional dwellings in the city. A figure of 16,300 is included in the adopted Core Strategy Partial Review, with up to 5,450 of those in the City Centre, however, this is likely to increase. New development connections to waste water treatment infrastructure is the central driver of increasing wastewater effluent; in a strategic context, foul water from employment and retail land uses are generally considered to be minor by comparison to that from residential uses. Without suitable limits to the volume and pollutant load of consented discharges, adverse effects on European sites’ 39 ecological integrity are likely, particularly in the context of housing allocations across the city and the wider South Hampshire sub-region. 5.4.2 The Environment Agency’s Review of Consents (RoC) under the Habitats Directive, completed in late 2007, determined sustainable levels of waste water discharge that can be met without adverse effects on the ecological integrity of European sites, including the two sites that could potentially be affected by discharges from the Local Plan. 5.4.3 As a result of the RoC process, the Wastewater Treatment Works (WWTW) at Millbrook underwent a major upgrade to meet a fixed emission standard of 10 mg/l nitrogen which will ensure that there are no adverse effects on the ecological integrity of the Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar and Solent Maritime SAC. A similar upgrade is commencing at the Woolston WWTW. Future capacity of WWTWs across South Hampshire sub-region 5.4.4 A capacity assessment based on predicted population growth across the South Hampshire sub-region has been carried out for PUSH (Atkins, 2009). This evaluated a baseline and two forecast scenarios to establish whether predicted growth across the sub-region can be accommodated at the WWTWs serving the area: The baseline situation is taken as the treatment works’ certified Dry Weather Flow (DWF) in the period 2006/07. For each works the consented DWF, measured DWF and calculated levels of foul flow from current population estimates were assessed. Scenario 1 forecast growth at WWTWs using a standard methodology used in wastewater planning. The growth in DWF at each works is modelled taking the baseline situation and adding on flows associated with growth in resident, tourist, trade and cess flows. Scenario 2 links the forecast changes in water supply with the forecast return to sewer, since the former is the primary driver for the latter. This scenario therefore takes account of demand forecasts developed by Portsmouth Water and Southern Water in their WRMPs, which results in lower predicted discharge volumes due to the measures being introduced by the water companies to constrain growth in water consumption as population grows, and may therefore yield more realistic forecasts. 5.4.5 The findings for WWTWs across the sub-region are summarised by Atkins (2009, p.86) as: For Scenario 1: seven of the 13 works are forecast to exceed their current DWF consents by 2020, which includes Millbrook. For Scenario 2: None of the works is forecast to exceed its current DWF consent. 40 Future capacity at the Millbrook WWTW 5.4.6 This section draws on Atkins (2009, pp.97-98), which evaluates the Millbrook WWTW individually with regard to flow and quality consents, including revised consents following the Environment Agency’s RoC. The assessment for Millbrook WWTW found that under Scenario 1, the works would be exceeding its current DWF consent by 3%in 2025/26, as illustrated in Figure 5.1 overleaf. Where growth is forecast to exceed a consented DWF, the Environment Agency generally applies a ‘no deterioration’ policy. On this basis, it would be anticipated that quality consent conditions would be reduced on a pro-rata basis to ensure that total load concentrations are maintained. 5.4.7 Table 5.1 shows the predicted quality consent conditions on the basis of the 2025/26 flow consent. ‘On the basis of no deterioration it is predicted that an N consent concentration of 9.67mg/l would be applied. This is within the 9-10mg/l N concentration which… the works could reasonably be expected to achieve. As such this level is not considered to be a constraint to the planned growth allocated to Millbrook. Following the works to upgrade the treatment works greater confidence can be applied to this conclusion. The reductions in biological oxygen demand (BOD) and suspended solids (SS) concentrations are not considered significant.’ (Atkins, 2009, p.98). 5.4.8 Under scenario 2, the works is not expected to exceed its DWF consent; but given that there will be an increase in biological load to the works associated with the population growth the works will be working harder to stay within its consented N concentration. Future Capacity at the Portswood and Woolston WWTWs 5.4.9 The study found that under both scenarios the Portswood WWTWs would not exceed its DWF consent. The Woolston WWTWs were not assessed in their own right due to a proposal to transfer effluent to the Peel Common works in Fareham. However, this proposal has now been dropped and as mentioned above the Woolston works are now undergoing an upgrade. It is assumed that this upgrade will enable the works to remain within its DWF consent but this will need to be checked. 5.5 Data Gaps and Sources Data Gaps 5.5.1 It is possible that consents will be further tightened in response to the Water Framework Directive, which is introducing ‘Environmental Quality Standards’ in order to meet the objective for identified water bodies to meet at least good ecological status by 2015. Where a water body coincides with a Natura 2000 sites, these EQS will apply in addition to the requirement to maintain or restore the site to favourable conservation status, and will not necessarily match those required to protect site integrity under the Habitats Regulations (Environment Agency, 2009). It is therefore possible that discharge consents will be further tightened in the future to reflect EQS, which would necessitate a re-evaluation of the capacity of the sewerage system to deal with proposed growth. 41 Where: - 95%ile: 95% of those samples analysed have to be below the limit value - Upper tier: no samples should exceed this value - Annual average: the annual average should not exceed the value indicated - Max: no sample should exceed this concentration Figure 5.1: Forecast flow growth and quality consents at Millbrook Southampton (Source: Atkins, 2009) 42 Table 5.1: Predicted quality consents on the basis of scenario 1 2025/26 flows (Source: Atkins, 2009) Consent Folio No. A00016 Quality Parameter and Limit Type BOD (mg/l) SS (mg/l) 95%ile Upper tier 95%ile 24 39 Upper tier Total N (mg/l) Annual mean 9.67 Data Sources • Environment Agency • Southern Water • South Hampshire Integrated Water Management Strategy (Atkins, 2009, for the Partnership for Urban South Hampshire) • Southampton Strategic Flood Risk Assessment Level 2 (Capita Symonds, 2010) • South East River Basin Management Plan (Environment Agency, 2009) 43 6 Water Demand 6.1 Description of Impact 6.1.1 New homes require the development of new infrastructure, including the provision of fresh water supply. Water supply in Southampton is provided by Southern Water’s Hampshire South Water Resource Zone (WRZ), which draws surface water from abstractions at Testwood on the River Test and Otterbourne on the Itchen, and groundwater from the Chalk aquifer at a ratio of approximately 60% surface water to 40% groundwater (Southern Water, 2009). However, abstractions from these systems alter the surface water regime, in turn impacting on important ecological receptors. There is a further freshwater requirement in maintaining ecological integrity of the intertidal zones of coastal sites. Increased abstraction to serve additional housing therefore has potential to result in adverse effects on the ecological integrity of European sites, including the marine habitats of the Solent system and freshwater habitats of its rivers. 6.2 Sites Potentially Affected 6.2.1 The residential element of proposed growth under the Local Plan is likely to be the main driver of increased water consumption. Additional pressure for water abstraction could result in adverse effects on the ecological integrity of the River Itchen SAC both via direct abstractions from the river and indirectly through groundwater abstractions. The Environment Agency’s Review of Consents (RoC) for this site found need to modify the Otterbourne surface and groundwater licences ‘to meet the Environment Agency target flow regime for the river Itchen by imposing a hands off flow condition (i.e. a condition which stipulates that the abstraction must cease when the river flow drops to a certain point) and by applying monthly totals for June to September (inclusive) (i.e. a maximum volume of water that can be abstracted)’ (Environment Agency, undated). 6.2.2 There are also theoretical pathways for abstractions on the River Test to impact on Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar and Solent Maritime SAC. The Environment Agency has notified Southern Water that the Lower Test abstraction needs to be assessed under the Restoring Sustainable Abstraction (RSA) programme. This work will be completed by December 2015, at which point the Environment Agency will decide whether changes to the Lower Test abstraction licence are required (Southern Water, 2015). These sites will be considered further once the findings of the review are known. 6.3 Extent of Impact at Present 6.3.1 The south east region has been declared an area of serious water stress, and the relevant Catchment Abstraction Management Strategy (CAMS) lists all surface water and groundwater management units as over-licensed, while some management units are over-abstracted (Southern Water, 2009). 6.3.2 The Environment Agency’s Review of Consents (RoC) under the Habitats Directive, completed in late 2007, determined sustainable levels of water 44 abstraction that can be met without adverse effects on the ecological integrity of European sites, including the marine habitats of the Solent system and freshwater habitats of its rivers. The RoC process found that it was necessary to modify nine abstraction licenses in order to maintain minimum flows required to support populations of designated species in the river, thereby ensuring the integrity of the River Itchen SAC. 6.3.3 As a result of the RoC findings, Southern Water has accepted changes to its abstraction licences (known as sustainability reductions) on the River Itchen, in order to maintain the integrity of the SAC. These are due to commence in 2015 and be introduced progressively over the following five years in accordance with a Memorandum of Understanding between the two water companies, the Environment Agency and the regulator, Ofwat. 6.4 Potential impact of the Local Plan 6.4.1 Planning for the delivery of over 16,000 new dwellings in the city will require significant volumes of water supply, the impact of which is magnified when placed in the context of housing allocations across the South Hampshire subregion. When combined with sustainability reductions to licensed abstraction limits to protect European sites’ integrity, a combination of supply-side and demand-side measures will be required to address the resulting deficit. Demand management is primarily achieved through metering of supply and water efficiency measures, including leakage reduction, while new supplies can be developed by optimising abstraction and treatment infrastructure to make the most of available abstractions or constructing new storage reservoirs. 6.4.2 Southern Water's Water Resources Management Plan 2010 – 2035 (Southern Water, 2009) shows that the Hampshire South WRZ begins the planning period with a surplus of 3.76Ml/d, rising to 18.82Ml/d in 2014-15 for the peak deployable output condition (this increasing surplus is due to a steady reduction in demand driven by the introduction of household metering). However, this changes markedly as a result of full sustainability reductions on the River Itchen by 2019-20; see Figure 6.1. The effect of the reductions leads to a supply/demand deficit of 52.26Ml/d. Figure 6.1: Hampshire South Peak Deployable Output Baseline Supply Demand Balance (Source: Southern Water, 2009) 45 6.4.3 The company’s agreed strategy to resolve this deficit embraces both demand management and resource development options, and can be summarised as follows: During 2010 - 2015 A policy of universal metering throughout the area by 2015, which will give benefits in terms of demand savings and associated reductions in supply pipe leakage; The optimisation of inter-zonal transfers, from the Hampshire South WRZ to the Isle of Wight WRZ via the cross-Solent main; A series of groundwater source improvements, which could deliver over 9Ml/d for the average condition; The development of Testwood water supply works up to the current licence limit; and The development of the enabling Testwood to Otterbourne transfer. (The Testwood schemes need to be implemented during 2010-15 so that implementation of the sustainability reductions on the River Itchen can begin from 2015.) During 2015 - 2035 6.4.4 Transfer of the Candover/Alre river augmentation scheme to Southern Water from the Environment Agency, to enable the full yield benefits of the scheme to be realised, and satisfy any residual supply demand balance deficit arising from the sustainability reductions; The refurbishment of two small groundwater sources on the Isle of Wight; Refurbishment of three groundwater sources (e.g., R167) in the Hampshire South WRZ; Water efficiency kits being issued on the Isle of Wight; and A total further reduction in leakage of 8.9Ml/d. As a result of this strategy, the company states the following conclusions (see also Figure 6.2): ‘The proposed Sustainability Reductions have a significant impact on the baseline supply demand balance, and therefore the Water Resources Strategy for the area. Following submission of the draft WRMP the company has met with Ofwat, EA, Natural England and Portsmouth Water to explore alternative options for allowing the Sustainability Reductions to be implemented without compromising security of supply. The company prepared a draft Memorandum of Understanding that set out the roles and responsibilities of each party and the schemes that would need to be implemented before the Lower Itchen abstraction licences would be voluntarily changed. Investigations would also need to be undertaken during AMP5 to confirm or otherwise the assumptions for the proposed operation of the Candover and Alre groundwater augmentation 46 schemes which have been used for the supply demand balance of Hampshire South WRZ. The Memorandum of Understanding has been agreed and signed off by the relevant parties… ‘The company would not be able to confirm its commitment to implementation of the full Sustainability Reductions at the end of AMP6 unless the following options are implemented in the Hampshire South and Isle of Wight WRZs, so that the security of supplies is maintained throughout the planning period: Universal metering; Leakage reduction; Asset improvement schemes for groundwater sources; Increase of Testwood WSW to licence limit; Development of the enabling Testwood to Otterbourne transfer and associated distribution infrastructure; and Optimisation of inter-zonal transfers (cross-Solent main).’ (Southern Water, 2009, p10-35) Figure 6.2: Hampshire South Peak Deployable Output Preferred Regional Strategy, assuming Sustainability Reductions, Supply Demand Balance (Source: Southern Water, 2009) 6.5 Data Gaps and Sources Data Gaps 6.5.1 In light of the review of the abstraction licence limits on the River Test the measures detailed above may need to be revisited and potential impacts on the on Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar and Solent Maritime SAC assessed. Data Sources • Environment Agency 47 • Southern Water’s Water Resource Management Plan (Southern Water, 2009) • Southern Water Final Water Resources Management Plan – Technical Report (Southern Water, 2015) • South Hampshire Integrated Water Management Strategy (Atkins, 2009, for the Partnership for Urban South Hampshire) • Southampton Strategic Flood Risk Assessment Level 2 (Capita Symonds, 2010) • South East River Basin Management Plan (Environment Agency, 2009) 48 7 Recreational Disturbance 7.1 Description of Impact 7.1.1 Population growth associated with residential development brings with it the prospect of additional visitor pressure on European sites. There is particular concern over the capacity of existing open spaces adjacent to or within European sites to accommodate additional visitor pressure resulting from planned strategic residential development targets across South Hampshire, and development and promotion of tourism (particularly along the coast), without adverse effects on European site integrity, particularly those designated for an internationally important bird assemblage. 7.1.2 Impacts associated with disturbance from recreation differ at coastal and inland areas, and between seasons, species, and individuals. Birds’ responses to disturbance can be observed as behavioural or physiological, with possible effects on feeding, breeding and taking flight. Disturbance can be caused by a wide variety of activities and, generally, both distance from the source of disturbance and the scale of the event will influence the nature of the response. Factors such as habitat, food requirements, breeding behaviour, cold weather, variations in food availability and flock size, will influence birds’ abilities to respond to disturbance and hence the scale of the impact (Stillman et al, 2009). 7.1.3 On the other hand, birds can modify their behaviour to compensate for disturbance, for example by feeding for longer time periods. Some birds can become habituated to particular disturbance events or types of disturbance, and this habituation can develop over short time periods (Stillman et al, 2009). The New Forest SPA will therefore be experiencing different challenges as a result of recreational pressure than Solent and Southampton Water SPA/Ramsar, and those further afield at Portsmouth, Langstone and Chichester Harbours. 7.1.4 At the New Forest, it is the ground and near-ground nesting birds that are particular receptors of negative effects, such as Dartford warbler, nightjar and woodlark. Studies by Langston et al (2007), Liley and Clarke (2003), and Murison (2002) investigated the effect of disturbance on the nightjar on heaths in Dorset, finding that breeding success of nightjar is significantly lower close to paths, and that proximity to housing has a negative relationship with the size of the population (Langston et al, 2007). The most common cause of breeding failure for this ground nesting species was due to daytime predation of eggs when disturbance caused an incubating bird to leave the nest. Similarly, the study by Murison et al (2007) revealed that for Dartford warbler on Dorset heathland, disturbance also reduced breeding activity, particularly so in heatherdominated territories. Birds in heavily disturbed areas (e.g., close to access points and car parks) delayed the start of their breeding by up to six weeks, preventing multiple broods and so reducing annual productivity. Most of this disturbance was found to come from dogwalkers as a result of dogs being encouraged to run through the vegetation after sticks. 7.1.5 At the coastal areas, it can be helpful to divide impacts into the effects of disturbance on overwintering birds, or on breeding birds (Stillman et al, 2009). 49 Impacts to wintering birds are thought to be centred on interruption to foraging, and less so roosting, and individuals alter their threshold in response to shifts in the basic trade-off between increased perceived predation risk (tolerating disturbance) and the increased starvation risk of not feeding (avoiding disturbance) (Stillman et al, 2009). During the breeding season, impacts on shorebirds are akin to those on ground-nesting inland birds, in that predation of eggs, as well as trampling and increased thermal stress, when birds flush the nest in response to a disturbance event has a negative impact on breeding success (Stillman et al, 2009). 7.2 Sites Potentially Affected 7.2.1 In the sphere of potential influence of the Southampton CCAP area, the sites that may be affected by recreational pressure from new development are the New Forest SPA, and the coastal sites of the Solent: Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar, Portsmouth Harbour SPA / Ramsar and Chichester and Langstone Harbours SPA / Ramsar. 7.3 Extent of Impact at Present 7.3.1 Two studies have examined the sources and mechanisms of these impacts: Sharp et al (2008) analysed patterns of visiting activity at the New Forest, while the Solent Disturbance and Mitigation Project modelled the impacts of development and visitor pressure along the Solent coastline. 7.4 Potential Impact of Local Plan New Forest 7.4.1 Analysis of changing patterns of visitor behaviour in the New Forest informs this section (Sharp et al, 2008). The report shows that most day visitors to the Forest, and a large proportion of total visitors, come from within 20km of the National Park boundary, while between 78% and 95% of visits are made by car. The report states that the estimated number of current annual visits to the New Forest (over 13 million per year) is predicted to increase by 1.05 million visits annually by 2026 based on sub-regional development objectives at the time the work was carried out. 7.4.2 Sharp et al (2008) estimate that around three quarters (764,000) of this annual total increase will originate from within the first 10km from the Forest, which includes Southampton. Separating distances into individual 1km bands, between 50,000 and 95,000 additional visitors will originate from within each of the bands 2 to 7km from the Forest in any direction, including Southampton and any other location within that distance from the SPA boundary. See for example Figure 7.1 which depicts the estimated population density within each distance band by 2026. New residential development promoted by the Local Plan will therefore fall within the sphere of highest potential influence on the New Forest, albeit on the outer edge of that zone. 7.4.3 The Southampton Core Strategy recognises the likely recreational pressure associated with additional growth in the City (16,300 new dwellings in total), and Policy CS22 Promoting Biodiversity and Protecting Habitats is a high level 50 policy that seeks to address this. The policy provides for protection of designated local, national and international sites, together with other measures to protect and enhance biodiversity, including promoting wildlife corridors and measures to ensure development protects and enhances features of biological interest. In relation to European sites, the supporting text states: ‘The Council commits to working with partners in the sub region to develop and implement a strategic approach to protecting European Sites. This approach will consider a suite of mitigation measures, including adequate provision of alternative recreational space and support via developer contributions for access management measures within and around the European sites. Development proposals will be expected to contribute towards the conservation, enhancement and restoration of biodiversity as required by PPS9’ (SCC 2010, p.74). Figure 7.1: Estimate of 2026 population density in areas surrounding the New Forest (Source, Sharp et al, 2008) 7.4.4 Policy CS21 Protecting and Enhancing Open Space sets out the Council’s commitment to retain, enhance and supplement the City’s existing multifunctional open spaces, and refers to the Council’s joint-working with the landowner and Test Valley Borough Council to develop a new forest park at Lords Wood on the northern city boundary in order to relieve pressure on the New Forest. The Inspector endorsed the proposal in his report on the Core Strategy following Examination in Public. This is intended to provide residents with a nearby Suitable Alternative Natural Greenspace (SANG), to absorb additional recreational pressure resulting from residential development in the City. Test Valley Borough Council published a feasibility study for the project in March 2011, and plans are currently progressing to implement the proposal over the plan period for the borough. Within Southampton City Centre it will be 51 equally important to promote the use of existing and nearby alternatives to the New Forest, such as the central parks and the Southampton Common. 7.4.5 Despite these city centre initiatives and the planned provision of alternative sites such as Lords Wood, a residual number of visits to the New Forest are always likely to remain because of the very high quality experience it offers and difficulty in recreating this elsewhere. Furthermore Sharp et al (2008) demonstrate that it is not just Southampton and Test Valley developments that will lead to impacts at the New Forest, and it is probable that a strategic approach to managing access will be required. 7.4.6 The National Park’s Recreation Management Strategy (2010) seeks to reconcile visitor activity with nature conservation within the Forest and manage recreational access accordingly. It explores a range of recreation management tools, including: a survey and research programme to inform future decisions; provision of new areas of green infrastructure; selective locations for enhanced visitor facilities; and limitations on car parking provision. The Recreation Management Strategy also underwent HRA which concluded that, given the overall purpose of the strategy is to manage recreation and visitor pressures to avoid impacts on the European nature conservation interest, the document would not lead to adverse effects. Together, delivering SANGs and the Recreation Management Strategy constitute a series of projects to which development outside of the New Forest can contribute financially, providing a mechanism for ensuring the impacts of residential development can be mitigated. Coastal areas 7.4.7 The Solent disturbance and mitigation project was initiated in response to concerns over the impact of disturbance on coastal birds and their habitats. The research is now complete, and some of the key findings from the project are presented in this section. The focus of the project is on the likely effect of increased visitor pressure and recreational use arising from planned strategic development in the Solent area, in relation to disturbance impacts on overwintering birds within the SPAs and Ramsars. 7.4.8 The Solent provides locations for a wide range of recreational activities and the project shows that there are high levels of housing around the Solent shoreline, with particularly high densities in the urban areas of Southampton and Portsmouth. An estimated 1.44 million people live within a ten minute drive of a car park at the Solent coast (Stillman et al, 2009). Tourists make up a significant proportion of visitors at some sites, although sites vary in their attractiveness to tourists, suitability for particular kinds of access, and accessibility to the local population. 7.4.9 To the east of Southampton Water there are much higher densities of housing and at many sites local people are likely to account for a higher proportion of visitors. Sites such as Hayling Island have holiday accommodation and attract staying tourists. Future development is likely to result in a large increase in the residential population, particularly in the vicinity of Southampton, Portsmouth 52 and Fareham. But monitoring of recreational access had been limited prior to 2009, making it difficult to determine how patterns of access have changed over time and how they may change in the future. As the document states, ‘in order to determine how new housing might change visitor levels in the future it will be necessary to separate local visitors from tourists, categorise visitors according to the activities undertaken at sites and take into account the variation between sites in terms of attractiveness and suitability for different activities’ (Stillman et al, 2009, p36). Results from visitor surveys and bird observations 7.4.10 Phase 2 of the project ran from 2009 to 2012, and gathered data on bird numbers (including at two sites near Southampton City Centre; site 18 Eling and 24 Weston Shore) and their responses to various forms of recreational disturbance, while visitor surveys established visiting patterns at specific sites (including at the same two sites near Southampton). Household surveys explored which locations are most popular and why. Phase 2 culminated in a modelling exercise to predict the disturbance response effects on birds at hotspots of recreational visiting activity. Phase 3 combines the findings of earlier phases in order to determine how development planning can influence these responses, and explore ways in which impacts might be mitigated. 7.4.11 Local data from phase 2 reports provide some contextual information. The visitor surveys at Eling and Weston Shore (Fearnley et al, 2010) found that the majority of people visited the sites to go for a walk or walk the dog, and that the average distance people travelled in order to do this were 1km and 1.7km respectively. It should be noted, however, that Eling is approximately 4.4km from the nearest extent of the City Centre boundary, and Weston Shore is approximately 1.9km away. For both locations, there are significant geographical barriers to travel from the City Centre, Southampton Water for Eling and the River Itchen for Weston Shore, although closer sections of protected intertidal can be found at, and north and south of, Chessel Bay. Indeed, the report shows that none of the 20 survey locations recorded any visitors from within Southampton. 7.4.12 The phase 2 bird disturbance fieldwork (Liley et al, 2011) indicates that birds utilising areas around Eling and Weston Shore appear to be relatively well habituated to human activity. At Eling, of the 137 observations recorded, 80% were categorised as birds exhibiting ‘no response’; 20% resulted in a change of behaviour. At Weston Shore, of 212 observations 83% led to ‘no response’ and 17% resulted in a change of behaviour (there was also 1 observation that was uncategorised). The results across all categories of bird response for the two sites are summarised in Table 7.1. 53 Table 7.1: Number of observations (events within 200m of birds at each site) and the responses, by site (Source: Liley et al, 2010) Eling 137 Weston Shore 212 % Disturbed Major flight Short flight Short walk/swim Alert Total observations Uncategor -ised Response of birds No response Site 110 - 14 6 1 6 20 177 1 8 10 2 14 17 7.4.13 Inter-species variation in the response rate to disturbance events, as illustrated in Figure 7.2. Generally speaking, the most popular types of recreational activity (dog walking (with dog on lead), walking, cycling and jogging) showed very high levels of ‘no response’ in birds. It is the less frequent and more unusual activities such as rowing a boat, horse riding, surfing and kite playing which generated a greater degree of response. This is illustrated in Figure 7.3. Solentwide, while dog walkers with dogs off the lead account for only 2% of the total number of observations, this led to 27% of the occurrences of a ‘major’ response (birds taking flight and flying for 50m or more). If dogs on the foreshore are also included then a total of 47% of major flights are caused by dogs off their leads. Figure 7.2: Response to disturbance events by species. All species for which there were data from at least 50 events are included (Source: Liley et al, 2010) 54 7.4.14 The household survey (Fearnley et al, draft 2010) included estimates of visitor numbers and modes of transport to sections of Solent coastline most relevant to the CCAP. These include section 19 (Freemantle to Ocean Village, including the (inaccessible) Port), and section 20 (Ocean Village Marina to Itchen Bridge). Section 19 is thought to be receiving around 2.2 million visits annually, of which just over 1 million visit on foot (from within 10km) and just under 1 million arrive by car (from within 30km). The remaining 188,604 travel by other modes e.g. public transport. Section 20 is estimated to receive 763,172 visitors annually, 423,964 by foot and 274,272 by car. Section 19 is not adjacent to areas designated as SPA. 7.4.15 The household survey concluded that an estimated 52 million visits are made to the Solent coastline each year by households living within a 30km radius of the coastline between Hurst Castle and Chichester Harbour, including the north shore of the Isle of Wight. By incorporating planning data from Local Authorities in the area, they go on to estimate that this number will rise by 8 million visits annually to 60 million annual visits once all planned new residential development is occupied, an increase of 15%. Figure 7.3: Responses of birds (grouped across all sites and all species) according to activity (Source: Liley et al, 2010) Predicting the impact of human disturbance on overwintering birds 7.4.16 The final phase two report (Stillman et al, 2012) combines the data and modelling exercises from the earlier research activities to predict impacts on bird survival over the winter within different parts of the Solent. Bird survey fieldwork gave an indication of how birds respond to disturbance (e.g. taking 55 flight, stopping feeding or avoiding disturbed areas) and the distance over which these responses were elicited from different types of human activity. Models of Southampton Water and Chichester Harbour were prepared, within which the relationship between a number of factors was examined: intertidal invertebrate food supply, the exposure and re-covering of this food during the tidal cycle, disturbance from human activities, and the energy requirements and behaviour of birds as they avoid human activity and search for food. 7.4.17 The model incorporated the costs that birds incur when avoiding human activities (e.g. increased bird density in non-disturbed areas, reduced time for feeding and increased energy demands when flying way) as well as their abilities to compensate for these costs (e.g. by feeding for longer or avoiding more disturbed areas). The scope of the model included Dunlin, Ringed Plover, Redshank, Grey Plover, Black-tailed Godwit, Oystercatcher and Curlew, while a separate exercise addressed Dark-bellied Brent Goose; other overwintering species on the SPA/Ramsar citations were not examined, including Teal, Pintail, Shoveler, Wigeon, Turnstone, Sanderling, Red-breasted Merganser and Shelduck. 7.4.18 As the report says, in the absence of disturbance all wader species modelled in the Southampton Water model were predicted to have 100% survival through the winter. Disturbance resulting from current levels of housing was predicted to reduce the survival of Dunlin, Ringer Plover, Oystercatcher and Curlew to approximately 88%, 89%, 95% and 94% respectively. Anticipated future levels of housing were predicted to further reduce survival rates in Dunlin and Ringed Plover to 85% and 84% respectively. These results are explained as follows: “Dunlin, Ringed Plover, Oystercatcher and Curlew were predicted to be the species most vulnerable to disturbance due to their combination of disturbance distances, night-time feeding efficiency and vulnerability to food competition at high competitor densities. Redshank, Grey Plover and Black-tailed Godwit typically had the shortest disturbance distances and were able to feeding relatively efficiently at night. This meant that they were less affected by visitors than species with longer disturbance distances, and were better able to compensate at night for lost feeding time and increased energy expenditure during the day. In addition, Black-tailed Godwit were able to feed terrestrially to supplement intertidal feeding.” “The remaining species had longer disturbance distances and so were more affected by disturbance from visitors. Ringed Plover had the lowest night-time efficiency and so was the species least able to compensate for disturbance by feeding at night. Although Oystercatcher and Curlew could feed terrestrially, these species had the longest disturbance distances. Furthermore, Oystercatcher consume larger prey items than the other wading bird species, which take longer to consume, which means there is more fighting over prey (interference competition) in this species than in others.” (Stillman et al, 2012, p.32) 7.4.19 Results from the Chichester Harbour model were inconclusive due to difficulties with the food availability data. Test runs of the model showed that a greater 56 proportion of birds were predicted to die by the end of winter in an undisturbed scenario than is typically observed. Adjustments to parameters could not satisfactorily resolve the situation and further predictions were not made. 7.4.20 Additional scenarios were run inside the Southampton Water model to explore hypothetical situations regarding the available area of intertidal habitats (e.g. to account for sea level rise), variations in the energy requirements of the birds (such as might be the case during cold winters or particularly high energy expenditure while avoiding disturbance). The survival rates of Dunlin, Ringer Plover, Oystercatcher and Curlew were predicted to decrease when intertidal habitat area was reduced or energy requirements were increased. Conversely, if intertidal activities were moved to the shore, so reducing the area of intertidal that was subject to disturbance, wader survival rates increased. 7.4.21 The results for Southampton Water were assessed for suitability in scaling up to predictions of survival rates elsewhere in the Solent. The study determined that wader survival was predicted to decrease in Southampton Water when daily visitor rates to coastal sections were greater than 30 per hectare of intertidal habitat. Future visitor densities at other sections of Solent coastline were calculated and compared to this critical density of 30 daily visits per hectare of intertidal habitat. 7.4.22 There are several other sections of the Solent coastline where this threshold is predicted to be breached under the future housing scenario, and therefore where bird survival may be being reduced as a result of disturbance, including several where visitor densities are predicted to be several hundred daily visitors per hectare of intertidal habitat (visits/day/ha). Sections close to Southampton predicted to breach 30 visits/day/ha in future are: 19 Freemantle to Ocean Village: 391.9 visits/day/ha – this section is not immediately adjacent to European-protected areas; 22 Northam Bridge to St. Denys: 38.1 visits/day/ha; 23 St. Denys - Cobden Bridge to Swaythling: 298.3 visits/day/ha; and 24 Weston to Netley: 63.9 visits/day/ha. 7.4.23 In conclusion, the model provides some evidence for the hypothesis that survival rates among some species of waders are being negatively influenced by disturbance, particularly when visitor densities are greater than 30 visitors per hectare of intertidal per day, and that visitor numbers are expected to increase (and survival rates to further decrease) as a result of future housing development. However, it may be that residents in some parts of Southampton, the city centre for example, would have comparatively lower impacts than residents in other areas. For example, within the City Centre, around 40% of City Centre residents are students and there is a high proportion of flatted accommodation (80% in Bargate Ward). Consequently levels of dog ownership, which is an important factor in the scale of disturbance impacts, are likely to be relatively low. 57 7.4.24 It is also relevant to note that Southampton has lower levels of car ownership than the south east region or England according to Census data (ONS, 2011): 29.5% have no access to a car or van, compared to 18.6% (south east) or 25.8% (England). This may therefore suggest that many Southampton residents would use nearby areas of open space as their main recreational resource. Together with the findings of the SDMP so far, this may suggest a low contribution to recreational pressure on sites (since the nearest survey site in the Solent had zero visitors from Southampton). Dark-bellied Brent Goose 7.4.25 There were insufficient data to build predictive models of the impact of disturbance on the survival of Brent Goose because the available biomass of intertidal and terrestrial food sources was not known. However, some conclusions were drawn from similar studies elsewhere, and explored for their applicability in the Solent. Firstly, the response distance of Brent Goose to sources of disturbance is comparable with waders; the median distance within which there was no response to a potential disturbance event was 97m. In general, disturbance has not been shown to negatively affect Brent Goose survival so long as there is sufficient time and food availability to compensate for disturbance. Intertidal eelgrass beds, and terrestrial pasture, arable, grassland and saltmarsh habitats are all important food sources. 7.4.26 Terrestrial sites favoured by Brent Goose tend to be large, flat, open and lowlying, and close to the coast. The number of buildings surrounding a site is a less significant factor for Brent Goose than for waders. Conversely, important Brent Goose sites tend to be closer to one another whereas important wader sites tend to be more isolated from each other (King, 2010). The best sites are likely to be those where a high proportion of the site is greater than the response distance away from sources of disturbance such as visitor access routes. Loss of terrestrial habitat typically has the highest predicted effect on Brent Goose survival. Such habitat may become even more important for the birds in future when sea level rise is predicted to lead to the loss of areas of saltmarsh (Stillman et al, 2012). Mitigating the impacts of strategically planned development 7.4.27 The Phase 3 report (Liley & Tyldesley, 2013) considered the available options for avoiding and mitigating impacts to the overwintering bird assemblage of the Solent European sites, in the context of current planning policy and regulation. It outlined a strategy of projects including ‘quick wins’ and longer term behavioural change initiatives for reducing the overall adverse effect such that planned new developments can be accommodated. It concluded that the strategy, once implemented, would be sufficient to address the impacts of a multitude of smaller scale residential proposals, but that larger scale schemes and those very close to the designated coast will still require individual project-level HRA and site-specific mitigation. The main aspects of the strategy include: A delivery officer to coordinate implementation of the strategy; 58 A team of wardens or ranges to provide on-site presence and talk to visitors; A coastal dog project to provide information and promote suitable sites for dog walking; A review of parking and access points to provide a baseline from which future changes (additional/reduced parking in certain locations) can be planned and monitored; A review of watersports zones and access; -specific projects such as path re-routing, path creation, dedicated areas for dogs or watersports, enhanced facilities for watersports, changes to car parking and so on; Watersports permits and enforcement; and SANGs, green infrastructure projects and alternative roost sites. 7.4.28 Subsequently, a partnership of Local Planning Authorities and wildlife organisations, the Solent Recreation Mitigation Partnership, has developed an Interim Mitigation Strategy, based on the principles below: managing the coast for the benefit of both wildlife and the public; all development which creates net additional dwellings within 5.6 kilometres of the Solent SPAs is likely to have a significant effect on the SPAs and requires mitigation; provision of that mitigation through the preparation of a long term strategy on a sub-regional basis; mitigation funding from developer contributions secured by partner local authorities; a phased approach to strategy implementation; ongoing monitoring and regular reviews of the strategy. 7.4.29 Delivery of this strategy is being achieved through financial contributions from housing developments. The current sum of £174 per dwelling 1 April 2015 includes an element to fund immediate mitigation measures and an inperpetuity element which will be invested to achieve a long term revenue stream. 7.4.30 The first element of the interim Mitigation Strategy to be funded is the recruitment of a partnership project officer who is responsible for implementing other aspects of the strategy, for example setting up monitoring scheme, and delivering the definitive mitigation strategy which is due to be finalised by the end of 2017. 59 7.5 Data Gaps and Sources Data Gaps 7.5.1 Further data is required on the recreational pressure on the New Forest in order to understand more fully the implications of the Local Plan for recreational impacts upon the New Forest sites. Data Sources • Solent Disturbance and Mitigation Project (Stillman et al 2009, Fearnley et al 2010 and Liley et al 2011). • Changing Patterns of Visitor Numbers within the New Forest National Park (Sharp et al, 2008) • South Hampshire Green Infrastructure Strategy (UE Associates, 2010) • New Forest National Park Recreation Management Strategy 2010 – 2030 (New Forest National Park Authority, 2010) • Southampton Green Space Strategy (SCC, 2008) • Interim Solent Recreation Mitigation Strategy: An interim framework to mitigate the impact on the Solent Special Protection Areas of increased visitor pressure arising from housebuilding. 60 8 Site-specific Habitat Loss or Degradation 8.1 Description of Impact 8.1.1 Development may result in the actual or functional loss of areas outside European site boundaries which are nonetheless important to the integrity of the sites if the population stability of species for which the site was designated is shown to have a critical reliance on the use of such supporting areas. Such sites for example offer foraging areas for Brent geese, or roosting sites for wading birds, at high water when the intertidal areas within European sites are submerged. 8.1.2 Development can have a range of impacts on birds using offsite roosting and foraging sites. These impacts relate to increased perceived predation risk as a result of over-illumination, noise and disturbance from human activity, decreasing sight lines and overshadowing, as well as the risk of actual loss of off-site foraging or roosting habitat due to building footprints. 8.1.3 The updated 2010 Solent Waders and Brent Goose Strategy (Solent Wader and Brent Goose Project Steering Group, ‘SWBGPSG’, 2010) identifies the most important sites in this respect, which should be safeguarded from development wherever possible: ‘The underlying principle is to, wherever possible, conserve extant sites and to create new sites, enhancing the quality and extent of the feeding and roosting resource’ (SWBGPSG, 2010, p.7). Figure 8.1 provides a description of the main characteristics of foraging areas for Brent geese and roosting sites for wading birds, as described in the Strategy. In relation to Brent Geese, ‘the suitability of sites… depends on distance from the coast, the size of the grazing area, the type of grassland management, visibility and disturbance. Brent geese prefer large open sites where they have clear sight lines and short, lush grass for grazing. They use a great deal of energy travelling between feeding areas, so tend to preferentially select sites adjacent to the coast’. In relation to wading birds, ‘Natural roosting sites include saltmarsh areas, shingle banks and coastal grasslands. Waders are also known to roost on man-made structures such as boats, wharfs, jetties and piers. Roosting sites tend to be close the coast, perhaps no more than 100 metres from mean high water. They are usually situated away from sources of disturbance, such as housing and industry, and have good visibility. Like Brent geese, particular preferences for certain sites are not yet fully understood. Figure 8.1: Characteristics of off-site Brent Goose and Wader Sites (Source: SWBGPSG, 2010, pp.4-5) 8.1.4 The survey considered a study area comprising sites across the urban matrix and countryside surrounding the Solent. The methodology for the updated Strategy considered all Brent Goose and Wader sites known to be used in the past or considered potentially suitable, due to their location or habitat, based on the knowledge of local bird experts and ecologists. For Brent Geese, the Strategy identifies sites according to maximum count and frequency of use. For wading birds, sites are identified according to the maximum count of waders on a given day, the significance of the site for a particular species, and the number 61 of different species recorded on the site. The current sites are classified into those that are important, uncertain or with no recorded use. Further analysis of currently important sites identifies those that are vulnerable to loss as a result of development, sea level rise or coastal realignment. The Strategy further identifies sites that have potential to be important in the future, taking account of the site characterisation analysis carried out for the study. 8.2 Sites Potentially Affected 8.2.1 There is theoretically a pathway for the Local Plan to bring about loss or degradation of off-site foraging or roosting habitat relied upon by Brent Geese and wading birds of the Solent and Southampton Water, Portsmouth Harbour and Chichester and Langstone Harbours SPA and Ramsar sites. 8.3 Potential impact of Local Plan 8.3.1 A number of current and future used roost sites were identified within Southampton. These were primarily located on the River Itchen and comprised of inter-tidal mudflats, jetties and pontoons. Roosts were also identified along Weston Shore and the derelict Royal Pier. 8.3.2 The majority of these roost were categorised as ‘uncertain’ which means they fell below the benchmarks used for scoring confidence levels (based on regularity of survey and seasonal coverage by surveyors), and indicates that they warrant further investigation to inform its assessment. The HRA process will take account of the majority of the ‘uncertain’ wader sites when assessing the Local Plan proposals, in consultation with the Hampshire and Isle of Wight Wildlife Trust who led the preparation of the revised Strategy, to include determining whether any further survey findings are now available. The ‘uncertain’ wader roost site at Royal Pier will be assessed separately through a project level HRA for the proposed development which is expected to be submitted for planning consent before the Local Plan has been completed. 62 Figure 8.2: Current sites for Waders and Brent Geese – map capturing Southampton City Centre area (Source: SWBGPSG, 2010) Figure 8.3: Potential future sites for Waders and Brent Geese – map capturing Southampton City Centre area (Source: SWBGPSG, 2010) 63 8.4 Data Gaps and Sources Data Gaps 8.4.1 Further enquiries will need to be made in relation to the current ‘uncertain’ wader roost sites along the River Itchen and at Weston Shore. Data Sources • Solent Waders and Brent Goose Strategy 2010 and accompanying Mapping Files (Solent Wader and Brent Goose Project Steering Group) • Hampshire and Isle of Wight Wildlife Trust 64 9 Location and Design of Buildings: Collision Risk, Light, Noise and Vibration 9.1 Description of Impact 9.1.1 The impacts addressed in this chapter operate over relatively short distances. Building location, height and illumination 9.1.2 Tall buildings and other structures can result in disorientation and collision risk to birds in areas close to designated or supporting habitats, which can be exacerbated by lighting and glazed windows. At night, birds can be disoriented or ‘entrapped’ by lights, where a bird within a lighted zone can ‘become "trapped" and will not leave the lighted area. Large numbers of nocturnally migrating birds are therefore affected when meteorological conditions bring them close to lights, for instance, during inclement weather or late at night when they tend to fly lower. Within the sphere of lights, birds may collide with each other or a structure, become exhausted, or be taken by predators. Birds that are waylaid by buildings in urban areas at night often die in collisions with windows as they try to escape during the day.’ (Longcore and Rich, 2004, pp.193-4). 9.1.3 There are also potential impact mechanisms for waterfront development to cause overshadowing or over-illumination of habitats used for feeding (such as mudflats), resulting in reduced food availability through alteration of ecosystem interactions. With the Itchen waterfront being a focus for a significant quantum and range of development this will need further investigation. In the absence of specific data on the potential impacts of light pollution the precautionary principle will apply. Noise and vibration 9.1.4 Noise and vibration arising from construction of buildings, as well as noisegenerating land uses, can also have impacts on birds where sited in proximity to designated and off-site habitat. The potential impacts of such disturbance include increased energy costs associated with avoiding perceived predation risk, which reduces the proportion of time spent foraging / roosting. The statement to inform the HRA of the Centenary Quay development at Woolston refers to benchmarks for levels of disturbance to birds that may arise during site preparation and construction: ‘Very loud (defined as greater than 70 dB) and percussive noises have the potential to disturb birds, increasing time spent alert and in flight, reducing the available time to feed. Peak levels of sound are most likely to occur from the impact of pneumatic drilling and concrete breaking during site preparation and piling during construction. These activities can have an impact on bird species at a distance of up to 300 m. This figure has been used as a worst-case scenario and is based on published research and studies by the Environment Agency for the Humber Estuary Tidal Defences scheme… The Environmental Statement for the Humber Defences states that: ‘Sudden noise in the region of 80 dB appears to elicit a flight response in waders to 250 m from the source, with levels below this to approximately 70 dB causing flight or anxiety behaviour in some species.’’ (Biodiversity by Design, 2008, p.79, 65 quoting from the Environmental Statement for the Humber Estuary Tidal Defences: Urgent works, Paull to Kilnsea and Whitton to Pyewipe). 9.1.5 Impacts may extend to aquatic species in relation to waterfront development, particularly from percussive piling works. Information submitted in relation to the Centenary Quay development reported that levels of 90 dB or more (the measure used to assess sound levels in fish) were thought likely to ‘initiate avoidance behaviour which could lead to increased use of energy reserves and/or delays to migratory movements’ and that piling associated with several elements of the construction works would emit approximately 128 dB, which would ‘result in an average noise level of 100 dB at 10 metres, 88 dB at 20 metres, 82 dB at 80 metres and so on’ (Biodiversity By Design, 2008, p.110). 9.1.6 Collision risk and noise / vibration impacts may arise in relation to the Local Plan, and are therefore considered further in the following sections. 9.2 Sites Potentially Affected 9.2.1 Collision risk and noise impacts from construction and operation of development brought forward by the Local Plan could potentially affect qualifying bird species of the Solent and Southampton Water SPA/ Ramsar, both within and outside designated areas, on the water, on the intertidal areas and along the shoreline. 9.2.2 Construction along the waterfront has the potential to cause noise and vibration impacts on fish assemblages that support the Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar. Due to the nature of ground conditions present along the waterfront piling, a key source of noise and vibration, is likely to be a requirement for the majority of developments. 9.2.3 As stated in relation to the Solent European Marine Site, ‘Many of the intertidal areas of the estuaries within the European marine site are… important nursery grounds for fish including bass Dicentrarchus labrax, flatfish species and mullet Mugil spp’ (English Nature 2001, p.14). In addition, the statement to inform the HRA of the Centenary Quay development refers to the role of the fish assemblage opposite the foreshore in supporting the integrity of the Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar (Biodiversity by Design, 2008). 9.2.4 The potential impacts of construction noise and vibration may also affect migrating Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, which are a qualifying species of the adjoining River Itchen SAC, and could be affected by vibrations as they migrate from their spawning ground in the SAC to Southampton Water or vice versa (English Nature, 2001). 9.3 Extent of Impact at Present 9.3.1 There have been limited studies on the incidence of building strikes in the UK and Southampton (GeoData Institute, 2009) and it is not known to what extent qualifying species of the Solent and Southampton Water SPA/ Ramsar are currently being affected by collisions with buildings and other structures, whether as a result of their location, height or associated light pollution. However, in response to the risk of bird collisions with tall buildings raised by the HRA of the Core Strategy (Halcrow, 2008 and 2009), SCC commissioned a 66 study to research wetland bird flight paths around the city (GeoData Institute, 2009), whose results are considered further in Section 9.4 below. 9.3.2 Noise and vibration impacts are not recorded on Natura 2000 Data Forms as existing concerns in relation to the sites that could be affected by Local Plan development (River Itchen SAC or the Solent and Southampton Water SPA/ Ramsar). However, at the site level, there is potential for impacts during both construction and operation. This needs to be considered in combination with other existing uses and construction projects on both sides of the River Itchen. The issue will therefore be considered in the HRA of the Local Plan in the context of the detailed site proposals, and may necessitate policy wording to ensure that project-level HRA considers noise impacts and the potential need for site-level avoidance measures to be applied during construction and operation, as required. 9.4 Potential impact of Local Plan 9.4.1 This section considers the Local Plan’s potential contribution to collision risk and to noise and vibration impacts. Collision risk 9.4.2 The Southampton Wetland Bird Flight Paths Study (GeoData Institute, 2009) carried out surveys and analysis to help fill the data gap on the risk of collisions with tall buildings in relation to bird species of importance for the area’s European designated sites. After a pilot study to determine the number and positioning of observers and to establish the most efficient data recording methodology, the researchers conducted a series of surveys between December 2008 and March 2009 in three main survey areas around the city: River Test, River Itchen and the city centre, to track the movements of species comprising the waterfowl assemblage, listed below: Gadwall Anas strepera (Not observed) Teal Ringed Plover Black-tailed Godwit Little Grebe Tachybaptus ruficollis Great Crested Grebe Podiceps cristatus Cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo Dark-bellied Brent Goose Wigeon Redshank Pintail (Not observed) Shoveler (Not observed) 67 Red-breasted Merganser Grey Plover Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Dunlin Curlew Shelduck (Source: GeoData Institute, 2009) 9.4.3 The survey captured information on a number of ‘bird movement attributes’, including density of waterfowl movements along observed flight paths, direction of movements and flying heights. Gull Survey 9.4.4 A separate ‘Gull Survey’ was also carried out (using a different methodology in view of the large numbers observed), which captured flight path data in relation to the Mediterranean Gull, which is an Annex I qualifying species of the Solent and Southampton Water SPA and a Chichester and Langstone Harbours Ramsar species, as well as Black-headed Gull, a Chichester and Langstone Harbours Ramsar species. It also surveyed several other gull species of national importance. 9.4.5 A summary of the key findings pertinent to the CCAP HRA is provided below, drawn from the study report (GeoData Institute, 2009), starting with results for waterfowl followed by brief discussion of relevant findings on specific species, from both the Main Survey and the Gull Survey. Main focus and direction of waterfowl movements 9.4.6 Movements of waterfowl were found to be primarily focused on the estuarine river corridors, with movements overwhelmingly directed up and down the rivers, generally representing reciprocal movements associated with diurnal variations in the tides. 9.4.7 Flight paths over the city centre were limited, although there were some flight lines close to the area. Flying heights and proximity of waterfowl to existing buildings 9.4.8 The majority (91%) of waterfowl were observed to be flying close to or below the height of surrounding buildings, described as ‘within the building height zone’. This included 2180 (16%) that were found to be flying within the building height zone on a flight line that intersected with building outlines, as defined by Ordnance Survey MasterMap. 9.4.9 The birds’ distance from buildings was also measured, and it was found that 99.9% were flying within 500 metres, 65% within 200 metres, 55% within 100 metres and 32% within 50 metres of a building footprint. 68 Visual representation of waterfowl flight path results of key relevance to the Local Plan 9.4.10 The study report illustrates its findings in a series of maps for each measured attribute, and with specific results reported for individual species that were observed in sufficient numbers to enable an analysis. The reader is referred to the report to view the full illustrated results. However, the map reproduced in Figure 9.1 below provides a 3D plot showing the relative density of waterfowl movements in relation to buildings within the city centre. Figure 9.1: Waterfowl assemblage - birds in building height zone (Source: GeoData Institute, 2009) Results for specific species 9.4.11 Where sufficient observational data was gathered for individual species, Chapter Four of the GeoData Institute report (2009) provides species-specific analyses of its findings. Of particular relevance are the findings relating to species found to fly in close proximity to, or over, the city centre, which raises the potential for collisions to occur. The results for those species seen flying in closest proximity to the city centre are briefly summarised below: Dark-bellied Brent Geese were observed flying in close proximity to the City Centre, especially along the lower Itchen, and skirting the docks at Redbridge (mapped results in Section 4.4 of the report). The majority were flying within the building height zone. However, their flight paths were generally confined to movements up and down the river corridor. 69 Little Egret Egretta garzetta were observed flying close to the city centre along the Itchen and the dock estate at Redbridge. There was also a flight line that crossed over the city between Shamrock Quay and Northam. As numbers were very low, it is not thought likely that waterfront development would present a hazard. Mediterranean Gull were observed along flight lines close to the Itchen Bridge, along the eastern bank of the River Itchen and also at Hythe Marina and Redbridge (mapped results are presented in section 4.7 of the report). However, these movements were confined to the river channel and not considered close enough to be subject to the risk of collision with development associated with the Local Plan. Black-headed Gulls were numerous and 14% of the total (4962 birds) were observed flying over the city centre. There were also significant movements on flight lines along the Test and Itchen rivers, which related to evening movements of birds to roost (mapped results are presented in section 4.8 of the report). Regarding collision risks to gulls, the report notes, ‘it is difficult to determine whether these birds are actually at risk of colliding with buildings because they have increasingly adapted to the urban landscape, which closely resembles the cliffs of their natural habitats and urban locations are increasingly their chosen breeding grounds’ (GeoData Institute report, 2009, p.66). Construction noise and vibration 9.4.12 There is potential for Local Plan proposals to give rise to construction noise and vibration in relation to development on the Itchen and Test waterfronts, as well as noise during operation once sites are in use. Noise levels would vary depending on the proposed use. This may have adverse impacts on qualifying bird species of the Solent and Southampton Water SPA/ Ramsar site through disturbance leading to increased energy expenditure. Construction noise and vibration may also affect fish species of the Solent and Southampton Water SPA/ Ramsar and the River Itchen SAC. 9.4.13 The nature of the proposed uses also has implications for flood defence requirements. Proposals for the implementation of the SMP policy relating to the western bank of the River Itchen, from just south of the Itchen Bridge to Mount Pleasant Industrial Estate, are currently undergoing public consultation. Due to the cost and the complexity of land uses along the river frontage, two potential routes have been identified. The first route runs along the waterfront whilst the second is set back. Following the completion of the consultation exercise a preferred route will be selected. An HRA assessment of the two options has identified noise and vibration as the key impacts likely to arise, affecting both overwintering birds and migrating Atlantic salmon, and highlighted the need for further technical studies (AECOM, 2015). 70 9.5 Data Gaps and Sources Data Gaps 9.5.1 The Flight Paths Study (GeoData Institute, 2009) provides valuable information on which species may be vulnerable to collision risks, and the accompanying GIS database provides a tool for targeted analysis of risks associated with specific proposed sites, which will be used for the purposes of the HRA of the draft plan. It would appear that the species of the most potential concern is the Dark-bellied Brent Goose. However there is a data gap on actual collision mortality, as highlighted in the ‘limitations’ section of the report, which suggested further investigations could be carried out to obtain further information. If such further information is not currently available, the HRA will have to proceed in its absence, and precautionary avoidance and/or mitigation measures may be found necessary. 9.5.2 In relation to construction and operation noise, further data is required on the proposed uses. 9.5.3 Further data will also need to be gathered in relation to existing noise levels and proposed future construction projects and waterfront uses in order to consider in-combination effects. Data Sources • Southampton Wetland Bird Flight Paths Study and accompanying GIS database (GeoData Institute, 2009) • Local stakeholders and academic journals 71 10 Conclusion and next steps 10.1 Overview of the Baseline Evidence Review 10.1.1 This baseline review has identified a range of issues that need to be considered under the HRA screening process for the Local Plan. The evidence suggests that there are possible pathways for the Local Plan to contribute to the following impact types: Atmospheric Pollution Flood Risk and Coastal Squeeze Effluent Discharge Water Demand Recreational Disturbance Site-specific Habitat Loss or Degradation Collision risk, light, noise and vibration 10.1.2 A number of data gaps have been identified. Where further evidence can be obtained, this will assist the screening. Elsewhere, if data gaps remain, precautionary mitigation may be necessary. 10.2 HRA Screening Stage 10.2.1 The HRA Screening stage will examine and screen the Local Plan’s policies and candidate sites will be categorised according to those which are deemed to be: (1) unlikely to have any negative effects; (2) unlikely to have any significant effects; (3) likely to have an effect alone (and may also have in-combination effects); and (4) unlikely to have any effect alone, but which may have an incombination effect. 10.2.2 The findings will be presented in a Screening Report, comprising a screening assessment matrix, together with an interpretative commentary in terms of identified effects, and recommendations on avoiding significant effects if possible at this stage. If significant effects are identified or suspected, and require further consideration because it was not possible to remove the effect during screening in a straightforward manner, these will be screened in to Appropriate Assessment. 10.3 In combination effects 10.3.1 Other plans and projects being implemented or prepared in and around the City may have the potential to cause negative effects on the integrity of European sites. It is therefore vital to consider what effects the Local Plan could have in combination with other plans and projects, including plans of adjacent areas. 10.3.2 The following provides an initial indication of the plans and projects that will be taken into account for the purposes of ‘in-combination’ assessment if required: 72 Local Plans and emerging Local Development Framework Documents for Southampton and neighbouring Local Planning Authorities Hampshire Minerals and Waste Development Framework Local Transport Plans for Hampshire and Southampton Crest Nicholson Centenary Quay development, Woolston The Royal Pier proposed development 73 Initial Habitats Regulations Screening Chichester and Langstone Harbours SPA / Ramsar Stronger economic growth More economic investment Growth of retail, leisure and cultural economy New housing Attractive place to live Improve transport network Manage and respond to climate change Manage and respond to air quality Education Design Emer Bog SAC Portsmouth Harbour SPA / Ramsar River Itchen SAC Solent Maritime SAC Solent and Southampton Water SPA / Ramsar 1, 4 1, 1, 5 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 1, 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 1, 1, 3, 4, 5, 4 1, 5 1, 5 1, 5 1, 5 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 1, 3, 4, 5 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 1, 3, 4, 5, 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Heritage Standards Environmental Health Flood risk Protection for parks, open spaces and conservation areas Protect and enhance network of green spaces New Forest SAC / SPA / Ramsar 6, 7 2, 6, 7 2, 6, 7 Safeguard biodiversity Risk Categories Adverse effects possible 74 Adverse effects uncertain Adverse effects unlikely 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Impacts Atmospheric Pollution Flood Risk and Coastal Squeeze Effluent Discharge Water Demand Recreational Disturbance Site-specific Habitat Loss or Degradation Collision risk, light, noise and vibration 75 References and Bibliography AEA Technology (2010): Road transport emissions impacts on Nature Conservation Sites. 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