Group 4 IS 10 Final
Presentation
The Surprise Party
Presidential Elections
1980-2016
1980 Election
RESULT: Reagan (R)
def. Carter (D)
1980 - Moral Majority
New player in 1980 election: Conservative religious organization
Utilizing religion as a political information outlet
Founded by pastor Jerry Falwell
Infuriated by Carter’s administration enforcing taxations on schools with prayers
Compared to previous religious ethos in politics, the moral majority had great success
Believed to sway Reagan two-thirds of the christian evangelical vote.
Utilized Television advertisement successfully
About 10 Million in television advertisements against carter
Sources: Randall E King and Daniel K Williams
1984 Election
RESULT: Reagan (R)
def. Mondale (D)
1984 - Rise of Infomercials
“It’s morning again in America” by Reagan
Justification for “trickle down” and “Reaganomics”
His success in the past 4 years
“The bear in the Woods” by Reagan
Justification for the escalated military spending
Bear represents the Soviet threat
Mondale’s political ads
No edited scene and no background sound
Sources: The Miller Center for Public Affairs,
Museum of the Moving Image, and Andrew Van Alstyne
1988 Election
RESULT: Bush (R) def.
Dukakis (D)
1992 Election
RESULT: Clinton (D)
def. Bush (R)
1992 - Ross Perot’s Infomercials
Bush’s renomination was already a challenge against Pat Buchanan in the Republican
primary
He aired 30-minute infomercials detailing his economic plan, complete with detailed graphs
Perot portrayed himself as the “alternative” to those who supported Buchanan
Perot was the most successful third party candidate since Theodore Roosevelt in 1912
His running would cost Bush a second term
Sources: Associated Press, Steven A. Holmes, and PBS
1992 - Bush’s Disorganized Campaign
Success of Bush’s 1988 campaign was attributed to Lee Atwater, but he passed
away
Many expected Secretary of State James Baker to leave his position so he could
manage Bush’s 1992 campaign
Wanted to remain Secretary of State as long as possible
There was an absence in Bush’s campaign leadership
The team was very disorganized and could not even answer the question: “Why
should Bush be elected president?”
Sources: Encyclopedia Britannica and PBS
1996 Election
RESULT: Clinton (D)
def. Dole (R)
2000 Election
RESULT: Bush (R) def.
Gore (D)
2000 - Press Release
Al Gore projected winner of Florida by 6pm
Bush hosts press conference saying the race is too close
Numbers start shifting
2:16 a.m. Fox News calls the election
Source: CNN
2000 - Supreme Court Decision
Al Gore retracts election concession
Recounts are called in key areas of Florida.
Machines incorrectly counting winner, hanging chad, butterfly ballot,
undervoting, overvoting.
Supreme Court steps in: Recount by hand is not possible for entire state
by Dec. 14th
Supreme Court rules for the original winner
Sources: CNN and The American Prospect
2004 Election
RESULT: Bush (R) def.
Kerry (D)
2004 - Weapons of Mass Destruction
Stated Rationale in Iraq Resolution:
WMD -> no stockpiles found
Terrorist links -> Iraq not the greatest threat
Human rights -> violations had been going on for decades
Purported rationale:
Oil -> of obvious strategic importance
Sphere of influence -> similar to US base in Philippines
Religious -> not credible, but inflammatory
Key justification was WMD stockpiles, ultimately erroneous but widely believed by intelligence community
Genuine misinformation or deception?
Sources: Fact Check and The Wall Street Journal
2008 Election
RESULT: Obama (D)
def. McCain (R)
2012 Election
RESULT: Obama (D)
def. Romney (R)
2008 and 2012 - Social Media
Highest turnout ever - high percentage of turnout was youth
New information channels tapped into this segment of the population
10% used social networking sites, 37% aged 18-24 used social networking sites
46% uses internet to inform or organize
35% watched online video
Youtube campaign material watched 14.5 million hours, which would have cost 47 million to buy on a network
Obama enjoyed a substantial social media advantage over Clinton and McCain, attracting an online audience an order of
magnitude larger
Ron Paul raised 4.2 million in one day using anti-war viral marketing on Youtube and MySpace
Targeting over FB:
Obama spent all of 2011 strategizing: People more likely to listen to people they know
Operatives visited FB and spent budget in creating software that tracks information about voter info
The campaign could gain access to peoples’ Facebook friends (targeted sharing). Gathered data & handpicked
friend lists for people to personally encourage
Sources: Huffington Post, Matthew Fraser, Jay Samit, and Washington Post
2016 Election
RESULT: Trump (R)
def. Clinton (D)
2016 - Hillary’s Emails
First email scandal hurt Clinton in the polls. The law on whether officials can use personal email
accounts changed during the time Secretary Clinton was in office. A new regulation allowed private
emails if federal records were preserved in the appropriate archives.
“The FBI ruled in July that she had created a security risk as hackers could have accessed her state
secrets but they found there were no grounds for prosecution. That month Mr Trump held a 0.9
percent lead over Mrs Clinton” (his 1st lead)
Before the second email scandal broke, Clinton was ahead of Trump by 12 points. But after the news it
dropped to just one point, according to a Washington Post/ABC poll. This timing was problematic, as
this story gave life to the idea that Clinton was untrustworthy right before Election Day
Many disregarded negative coverage of Trump in the media (became “numb” or “forgot”) by the time
the election came around
Sources: Los Angeles Times and The Sun
2016 - Fake News
“Top fake election news stories generated more total engagement on Facebook
than 19 major news outlets combined”
It is difficult to distinguish between real and fake news stories on social media
because often times they’re published on websites that sound legitimate
Many consumers only read headlines, ignoring disclaimers
Paul Horner stated “false news stories may have put Trump in the White House”
Source: Wisconsin Public Radio
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