Campaign Media Analysis Group in the news 8/8/08-8/15/08
As the international community unites for the Olympic Games, Senator John McCain
decided to run negative ads attacking his opponent. COO Evan Tracey provided his
thoughts on this unexpected strategy as well as Senator Barack Obama’s Olympic ad
spending tactics in articles in USA Today, ABC News, the Chicago Tribune and UPI.com.
Also this week, Obama aired an infomercial early Sunday morning on ION television –
something that hasn’t been done since Ross Perot’s 1994 run for the White House.
Airing an ad at this time allowed the Obama campaign to inexpensively test the
usefulness of this strategy, Tracey told TVWeek.com and UPI.com.
A worsening economy has lowered the cost of advertising, allowing the presidential
candidates to buy more air time for a lower price. Tracey told TVWeek.com and
AdAge.com that air time will most likely increase closer to the election as the competition
becomes more intense.
From McCain’s lack of advertising in Florida to his heavily aired attack ads, the Arizona
senator’s spending habits has baffled some news analysts. Tracey discussed both
candidates spending habits and strategies with Politico, The Wall Street Journal and
Bloomberg.com.
Data from CMAG was used in articles by LegalNewsline.com and the St. Louis Dispatch
that examined ad spending by Missouri attorney general candidate Chris Koster, who
outspent both presidential candidates in the state.
Below are the featured articles.
Olympic-size ad war: McCain vs. Obama
McCain may have chosen just the right, or wrong, platform for critical words.
By Mark Silva
August 13, 2008
Anyone watching the Olympic Summer Games on TV probably has noticed a certain
sideline competition: Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama going for the gold back
home.
Yet, while McCain's national network ads challenge his Democratic rival for the
presidency as "not ready to lead,'' Obama's Olympic-sized ad buy offers what USA
Today's Jill Lawrence calls "a gauzy spot about new types of energy jobs.''
"Not ready to lead... that's the real Obama,'' says the female narrator of McCain's ad,
which closes with a bright, smiling image of the junior senator from Illinois and his
"painful taxes.''
"Barack Obama, a new vision,'' says the male announcer of Obama's ad, featuring powergenerating windmills and a promise of new jobs in the development of alternative energy
sources.
Lawrence taps a couple of seasoned ad analysts who, on the one hand, question the
tactics of negative political advertising during the Olympic games, and on the other hand,
suggest that McCain has found the perfect stage for his message.
Ken Goldstein, who runs the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of
Wisconsin, called it strange to see a McCain "attack ad" during the Olympics opening
ceremonies -- especially since the footage used to deride Obama's "celebrity" was that of
Obama being cheered in Germany during his European tour.
Given that the spectacle was all about "the world and fellowship and the parade of
nations," Goldstein told USA Today, "going after your opponent for being of the world
seemed a bit jarring, a bit odd."
The Obama campaign predictably suggests that McCain's move will backfire. "Their
campaign really seems pretty out of touch with what the American people want to see
and hear during the Olympics," Obama adviser Anita Dunn told Lawrence.
Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group suggests that McCain's strategy is
risky but could pay off.
"They're using a gigantic stage to make their national case against Obama," he told USA
Today. "It doesn't seem to be causing any uproar. They may have guessed right."
Tucker Bounds, a McCain spokesman, says McCain is "focused on ensuring that voters
have the best information possible to make an informed decision on Election Day."
McCain's Olympics attack ads debated
WASHINGTON, Aug. 13 (UPI) -- The wisdom of likely Republican U.S. presidential
nominee John McCain's move to run political attack ads during Olympics coverage is
debatable, analysts say.
McCain, a U.S. senator from Arizona, is running ads criticizing his probable Democratic
Party presidential opponent, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., during U.S. television
coverage of the Beijing Olympic Games. In one ad, he uses footage of Obama being
cheered by massive crowds in Germany as evidence of something bad, a move that one
analyst says plays against the Olympics' international spirit of goodwill, USA Today
reported Wednesday.
Given that the Olympics are about "the world and fellowship and the parade of nations,"
Ken Goldstein, head of the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin,
told the newspaper that "going after your opponent for being of the world (during the
Olympics) seemed a bit jarring, a bit odd."
He said McCain risks being perceived as a killjoy by launching attack ads during a "feelgood" event like the Olympics, but another analyst told USA Today the strategy might
pay off.
"They're using a gigantic stage to make their national case against Obama," said Evan
Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group. "It doesn't seem to be causing any
uproar. They may have guessed right."
Candidates' Olympics ads take different approaches
By Jill Lawrence, USA TODAY
August 12, 2008
WASHINGTON — Millions of TV viewers are seeing negative political ads during the
Olympics, a gamble by Republican John McCain that the sheer size of the audience
outweighs any potential backlash against sharp rhetoric during a feel-good event.
Democrat Barack Obama, the target of the two McCain ads running with the Olympics, is
taking a different tack. His Olympics offering is a gauzy spot about new types of energy
jobs. But he's getting tough on McCain in lower-profile settings such as national cable,
local radio and TV ads targeted to a single state.
Political advertising analysts say both candidates are doing what they need to do: McCain
raising questions about Obama's readiness to lead, Obama trying to preserve his positive
brand of "new politics."
Still, says Ken Goldstein, head of the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of
Wisconsin, it was strange to see a McCain "attack ad" during the Olympics opening
ceremonies — especially since the footage used to deride Obama's "celebrity" was of
Obama being cheered in Germany.
Given that the spectacle was all about "the world and fellowship and the parade of
nations," Goldstein said, "going after your opponent for being of the world seemed a bit
jarring, a bit odd."
The Obama campaign suggests McCain's move will backfire. "Their campaign really
seems pretty out of touch with what the American people want to see and hear during the
Olympics," says Obama adviser Anita Dunn.
Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group says McCain's strategy is risky but
could pay off. "They're using a gigantic stage to make their national case against Obama,"
he says. "It doesn't seem to be causing any uproar. They may have guessed right."
Tucker Bounds, a McCain spokesman, says McCain is "focused on ensuring that voters
have the best information possible to make an informed decision on Election Day."
The claims in both ads, that Obama voted to raise taxes on lower-income people and will
raise them as president, have been labeled false or misleading by PolitiFact.com and
FactCheck.org, non-partisan fact-checking groups that say Obama proposes tax cuts for
lower-income people.
There's no sign Obama will be responding in kind during the Olympics. Jim Margolis, his
media adviser, says his Olympics ad is "a lot more appropriate" than McCain's negative
ads.
Most of Obama's negative ads are responses to McCain and the Republican Party. The
local advertising offensive, Margolis says, is meant to show people how McCain's
policies would affect them in a "relevant and personal" way. Recent examples:
• A TV ad in Nevada cites McCain's support for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste
repository and shows him saying he would not be comfortable with waste moving
through Arizona, his home state. The McCain campaign says Obama, a Yucca opponent,
twice voted for a water bill that funded the project.
• A radio spot in Ohio says McCain "used his influence" in the Senate to help DHL, a
German firm, buy a U.S. company and says his campaign manager, Rick Davis, "was the
top lobbyist for the DHL deal." Now 8,000 jobs at DHL are "on the chopping block," it
says. Davis said on Fox News Sunday that without the takeover, "those jobs were
probably going to be lost" earlier. McCain has said he will do all he can to save the jobs.
• A radio spot running in Milwaukee and York, Pa., both identified with HarleyDavidson, concerns McCain's comment that "I will take the roar of 50,000 Harleys any
day" over the roar of Obama fans in Berlin. It cites McCain's opposition to requiring the
government to buy U.S. motorcycles and products and says "Harleys don't matter" to
him.
Bounds says McCain's economic plan would cut Harley's taxes more than $100 million,
allowing it to expand and add jobs, and McCain supports free-trade policies that have
created more than 170,000 jobs in Wisconsin. "Unlike Barack Obama, Harley owners
appreciate open roads and open markets," Bounds says.
The McCain campaign is not rebutting Obama's local ads with its own ads. It has agreed
to take public financing of about $84 million for the general-election campaign. That
means its spending after the convention Sept. 1 will be capped.
Democratic strategist Robert Shrum says localized ads in 2000 and 2004 were sharply
restricted because nominees Al Gore and John Kerry took public financing. "I would
have liked to have run ads to suppress Nader's vote in Florida in 2000 and more tailored
ads in 2004" in individual states, Shrum says. "Obama is very wise to get out of federal
funding."
Obama unveils late-night infomercial
CHICAGO, Aug. 13 (UPI) -- Sen. Barack Obama filmed a late-night infomercial to feed
the appetite of political junkies hungry for information about the U.S. presidential
hopeful.
The presumptive Democratic nominee's campaign became the first to use a long-form
information-commercial during the 2008 campaign, Advertising Age reported
Wednesday.
Missed it? Well, the nearly 30-minute spot aired Sunday at 1:30 a.m. on ION television.
"This was one more effective way for us to communicate with folks who may not
normally see other communications we have with voters who are paying closer attention
to the race.," the campaign said in a statement.
The mainly biographical program included scenes of the Illinois senator's keynote speech
at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, scenes from campaign appearances,
background information and call-in phone numbers.
"It is a first. I guess they are going after the insomniac vote," Evan Tracey, chief
operating officer of TNS Media Intelligence's Campaign Media Analysis Group, told
Advertising Age.
Tracey said the late-night air time seems to allow the campaign to test the effectiveness
of an infomercial without spending a lot of money.
Obama Floods Florida Airwaves
Campaign Spends About $6.5 Million; McCain Leads State
By AARON RUTKOFF
August 12, 2008; Page A4
In Florida's living rooms, the presidential contest so far has been a landslide -- Barack
Obama, 9,785; John McCain, zero.
That is the tally of local television commercials broadcast by each candidate in the state,
whose 27 electoral votes Sen. McCain almost certainly needs to win the White House.
Recent polls in Florida show Sen. McCain holding a small edge.
The Obama campaign has spent about $6.5 million on TV advertising in Florida,
according to the Campaign Media Analysis Group, a unit of media tracker TNS Media
Intelligence. In part, the spending can be attributed to the Democrat's late start there. He
refrained from campaigning in Florida during the primary season after the Democratic
Party penalized the state for holding its primary early.
A spokesman for Sen. McCain declined to discuss why the campaign hasn't run TV ads
in Florida, but said the Republican is investing heavily in the state and is doing well.
"We've got offices across the state and a very robust operation," said Jeff Sadosky.
"That's a state where we won a primary."
Sen. McCain does get some exposure to Florida television viewers through national buys
on NBC during the Olympics and on cable news channels.
By this time in 2004, President Bush's re-election campaign had spent $13.5 million on
television in Florida. The president went on to win the state in November.
Sen. Obama's ads have touched every media market in Florida, which is the most
expensive for advertising among the closely fought states. In total, Sen. Obama has spent
about $36.6 million on television ads across the country since the end of the Democratic
nomination fight, with Florida so far taking the biggest share of any single state.
Although Sen. Obama has a larger war chest overall, both candidates are spending similar
sums on TV on a national basis, according to Campaign Media Analysis Group, with
Sen. Obama devoting $4.5 million a week to Sen. McCain's $4.1 million. Sen. McCain
has spent $32 million overall during the general-election period, including $3 million
spent by the Republican National Committee.
The Obama campaign is alone on the airwaves in North Carolina, Indiana, Georgia and
southern Virginia. Republican presidential candidates have done well in those areas, but
the Obama campaign is hoping to turn them Democratic this year. Meanwhile in some
traditional battlegrounds, such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, Republicans have
outspent Democrats.
Sen. Obama's campaign says many voters don't know the Democratic candidate well, and
two of the four Obama spots now in rotation focus on his biography. "We had to start
from scratch," said Florida Obama spokeswoman Adrianne Marsh.
"They are coming in early when it's cheaper to be on TV," said John Sowinski, a
Republican strategist in Orlando, Fla. "And they are determining if it will be worth it to
push things in Florida later on."
Some observers note that the Obama ad push in the state doesn't seem to be damaging
Sen. McCain's standing in local polls. "It's been a totally one-sided affair but it hasn't bent
the needle much," said Mr. Sowinski.
Evan Tracey, head of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, said: "I think this is a case
where the McCain campaign is hoping that the state stays close and they can focus their
resources closer to the end."
Obama Tests Waters With Late-Night Informercial
By Ira Teinowitz
August 12, 2008
First Barack Obama’s campaign made political and broadcast history by buying $5
million of advertising in NBC Universal’s Olympics programming. Now it’s marking
another political first, running the first infomercial of the 2008 presidential campaign.
If you hadn’t noticed, that may be because the nearly 30-minute program aired at 1:30
a.m. Sunday, Aug. 10, on Ion Television.
The Obama campaign late Tuesday described the ad as an effort to reach voters who don't
see normal ads.
"This was one more effective way for us to communicate with folks who may not
normally see other communications we have with voters who are paying closer attention
to the race," the campaign said in a statement.
The mostly biographical, 28-minute, 30-second program included scenes of the Illinois
senator’s keynote speech to the 2004 Democratic National Convention, as well as scenes
from other campaign appearances, background about Sen. Obama and frequent call-in
numbers.
There was immediate speculation that the airing was a late-night test of whether the
infomercial format could successfully generate contributions and calls.
Republican candidate Sen. John McCain is accepting federal financing for the fall
campaign. Mr. Obama has declined the funding, leaving him unrestrained by spending
limits, but he must continue raising his own funds.
“It is a first. I guess they are going after the insomniac vote,” said Evan Tracey, chief
operating officer of TNS Media Intelligence’s Campaign Media Analysis Group. He said
the unusual time slot for the spot appears to allow the campaign to test the effectiveness
of the infomercial format without spending much.
Mr. Tracey said the infomercial is a first from any of the presidential campaigns this year,
and may be the first from any of the presidential campaigns in years.
In 1992 and 1994 Reform Party candidate Ross Perot used infomercials as a mainstay of
his advertising efforts.
In 1992, the Clinton campaign occasionally ran "A Man From Hope," a biographical film
originally produced for the Democratic National Convention, as an infomercial.
Koster outspent Obama, McCain in Missouri
By Chris Rizo
August 11, 2008
JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (Legal Newsline)-The Missouri Democratic nominee for state
attorney general spent more on television spots than any other candidate on the statewide
ballot, including presidential hopefuls Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John
McCain during the final week of the campaign, a report says.
State Sen. Chris Koster narrowly won his party's AG nomination, narrowly beating out
Democratic state Reps. Margaret Donnelly, D-Richmond Heights, and Jeff Harris, DColumbia.
Koster, who defeated Donnelly by less than 800 votes, spent at least $1.21 million over
the last month to run 2,722 TV spots, TNS Media Intelligence-Campaign Media Analysis
Group said.
The nonpartisan firm reported that Donnelly spent at least $138,796 on ads during the
final campaign push, while Harris spent at least $220,487 during the final week, the St.
Louis Post-Dispatch reported Monday.
The final week of the campaign also featured 275 anti-Koster ads paid for by Koster's exwife, Rebecca Bowman Nassikas, who donated nearly $200,000 to a political action
committee, Missourians for Honest Leadership, which opposed Koster's candidacy.
Although Koster spent the most of any statewide candidate in the last week, McCain, the
presumptive Republican nominee, aired 1,031 spots, the most of any candidate, but his
ads were less expensive because they ran in lower-cost markets.
Koster, D-Harrisonville, will square off against Republican state Senate President Pro
Tempore Michael Gibbons of Kirkwood in November's general election.
The candidates are vying to replace outgoing Attorney General Jay Nixon, a Democrat,
who is running for Missouri governor.
Hottest Deal of the (Election) Season: TV Ads
Spots at Some Stations Sell for up to 20% off Amid Marketer
Cutbacks
By Ira Teinowitz
August 11, 2008
WASHINGTON (AdAge.com) -- The unthinkable is happening to political ads on TV:
They're getting cheaper to buy.
Faced with a recession, as well as cutbacks by automakers and financial advertisers, TV
stations have sliced prices, according to political-ad buyers. In some markets, where
panicked stations are desperate to show they're moving ad units, the cuts may be as much
as 15% to 20% from two years ago.
It's not at every station or in every market, and whether the cuts will continue through
November isn't certain, but buyers say the cutting is widespread enough to be noticeable.
"When we plan well in advance, we don't look at trends or the economy. We plan for
inflation. What we have found in a lot of cities is that when we go to actually buy, we can
bring in the buys for less than we plan," said David Bienstock, president of Target
Enterprises, Los Angeles, a major West Coast buyer for Republican candidates, who
offered the 15%-to-20% estimate. "It's very rare for rates to go down, but we are seeing
in major East Coast, Midwest and West Coast markets instances where costs per [gross
ratings] point are going down."
A Democratic media buyer who didn't want to be identified called the lower rates "a
welcome surprise" but said she wasn't sure whether they would continue into the fall.
Another buyer said even the presidential candidates have benefited, finding they can buy
ads in battleground states for less than expected.
Buying in bulk
A media rep for a number of stations, who also declined to be identified, said the cuts
have been coming, because some stations, desperate to show advertising sales units in the
face of marketer cutbacks, have offered political advertisers big discounts for buying
advance packages of ads.
"We all know the economy is bad, and it's a natural thing to cut the rate to get more
units," said the rep. She said the Olympics are also making it harder for non-NBC stations
because some advertisers don't want to buy time on competitive programs during the two
weeks of the games.
"Some stations can't wait," she said. "They need money now."
She said the price cuts aren't happening everywhere, because not all stations are
"panicking," and some realize they will likely get the political-ad buys at higher prices if
they wait.
Still, she said, she understands some of the panic.
Dour forecast
"Every day the media trade [magazines] forecast the media to be down next year. We are
driving it down ourselves. The [media-rep] agencies are all listening to the same
preachers, and they get crazy. It's a vicious cycle," she said.
Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNS Media Intelligence's Campaign Media
Analysis Group, which tracks media buying in politics, said he can't confirm the cuts.
"My feeling is they are buying more for less and negotiating good prices now, but as they
get closer to Election Day, I suspect that trend will reverse itself," he said.
McCain "maverick" ad only aired six times
August 11, 2008
John McCain's ad touting his maverick credentials and proclaiming the country to be
worse off now than it was four years ago only aired six times on a single day last week,
according to the Campaign Media Analaysis Group (CMAG).
"Maverick" was broadcast in swing states on August 5th and has not been up again as of
Friday, said CMAG's Evan Tracey.
Instead, McCain had an attack ad against Obama up in heavy rotation, Tracey said.
"Family," released last week, continues with the theme of painting the Democrat as a
mere celebrity, flashing pictures of Obama at his Berlin rally before claiming he wants to
raise taxes and increase the size of government.
When McCain's campaign released the maverick ad, they declined to offer any details
about where it would air -- a hint that it was largely a play for free media coverage.
The disparity between the ad touting McCain as a populist who has taken on Washington
interests and that continuing their assault on Obama as celebrity offers a window onto the
campaign's priorities and preferred message. There are few indicators as unmistakable as
how a campaign chooses to spend its money on pricey media buys.
Obama Cash Funds Offices in Indiana, North Carolina
(Update1)
By Jonathan D. Salant and Timothy J. Burger
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama is opening
campaign offices in Indiana, North Carolina and Alaska, using his financial edge to
challenge John McCain in states previously written off by Democrats.
Obama, an Illinois senator, also is concentrating much of his campaign-ad spending since
clinching his party's nomination in June on states won by President George W. Bush in
2004, according to a study by the University of Wisconsin in Madison.
Obama's push in previous Republican strongholds includes 14 offices in Indiana, 11 in
North Carolina and four in Alaska, according to his campaign Web site. Only one of
those states, North Carolina, has backed a Democratic presidential candidate in the past
40 years.
``The number of offices that Obama will be able to open in states where we essentially
withdrew from the battlefields in previous campaigns is stunning,'' said former
Democratic National Committee National Chairman Steve Grossman, who is raising
money for Obama.
In highly competitive Missouri, for example, Obama has opened 29 offices, said Debbie
Mesloh, Obama's spokeswoman for the state, which has supported the Democratic
candidate in only three presidential elections since 1968. McCain's Web site lists seven
offices in the state.
In coming weeks, Obama may be outspent by Republican rival McCain, an Arizona
senator who has accepted federal campaign funding and is required to empty his treasury
before his party's Sept. 1-4 nominating convention in Minneapolis.
Federal Cap
Yet in the general-election season, which begins after the conventions, McCain will have
to limit his spending to the $84.1 million in federal funds. Obama has decided not to
accept those funds and may have two to three times more money to spend.
Obama spent almost $10 million on ads in Bush states where McCain had spent nothing
between June 3 and July 26: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana and
Alaska, the University of Wisconsin study showed.
Both campaigns are spending about $3 million a week on ads, though Obama is running
commercials in more states, according to Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNS
Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, an Arlington, Virginia-based
company that tracks political advertising.
Olympics Advertising
Obama made a $5 million ad buy in late July to run during NBC's Olympics coverage
and McCain made a $6 million buy this week at the same rates, according to NBC
Universal records in New York. Both span the two weeks of the Beijing games and will
appear on network and cable in various time slots, including primetime.
In addition, Obama is in a stronger financial position than McCain for the future. Obama,
47, can go back to many of his donors and ask them for more money and can use any
funds for the general election, even after his party's Aug. 25-28 convention in Denver. He
has raised 48 percent of his money in donations of $200 or less, according to the Center
for Responsive Politics, a Washington-based research group.
Neither campaign will discuss its fundraising tally for July. They file that data next week
with the Federal Election Commission.
McCain, 71, has relied much more on larger donors; 53 percent of his money has come
from contributors who have given the maximum $2,300, meaning they can't be tapped
again.
TV Spending
The Arizona senator spent $21 million on TV advertising between June 3 and July 26,
compared with $27 million for Obama, the Wisconsin study showed.
Tucker Bounds, a McCain spokesman, said the campaign would have enough resources.
``We are going to be competitive with the Obama campaign across the board, and that
will be reflected on the airwaves and in the ground game,'' he said.
McCain began advertising earlier than Obama and spent more in some important states,
according to the Wisconsin study. He began in Pennsylvania on May 28 and spent $4.6
million there, compared with Obama, whose ads went on the air June 21 and who spent
$3.9 million. In Missouri, McCain was on the air two weeks before Obama and outspent
him, $1.6 million to $1.3 million.
McCain's early spending sends a signal to his supporters that ```we're out here, we're
going to put on a campaign and we're also going to criticize Obama, or have fun with
him,''' said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta.
Funding Goals
Obama is trying to raise $300 million for his campaign and another $150 million for the
Democratic National Committee. That goal requires raising around $60 million a month.
McCain expects to have $350 million, including the federal funds.
The Obama campaign Web site listed 25 offices in Florida as of Aug. 8. Demonstrating
that McCain intends to fight hard in the state that decided the 2000 presidential election,
the Republican's campaign Web site listed 27 offices and promises nine ``coming soon.''
Obama's cash advantage may make it hard for McCain in even the most reliably
Republican states said Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of
Wisconsin in Madison.
``As long as Obama can continue to raise impressive sums of money in small donations,
thus allowing him to return to previous donors for more, he can hire all the staff he
wants,'' Burden said.
Political Spots Now a Bargain
Weak Economy Yields Lower Ad Prices
By Ira Teinowitz
August 10, 2008
In the annals of political advertising, the unthinkable is happening: TV spots are getting
cheaper as the November election approaches.
Faced with a recession as well as advertising cutbacks by automakers and financial
services providers, TV stations have sliced the price of political spots, political ad buyers
say. In some markets, prices are as much as 15% to 20% lower than two years ago.
Reductions aren’t hitting every station or every market, and it’s difficult to say whether
prices will rebound.
“What we have found in a lot of cities is that when we go to actually buy, we can bring in
the buys for less than we planned,” said David Bienstock, president of Target Enterprises,
Los Angeles, a major West Coast buyer for Republican candidates. “It’s very rare for
rates to go down, but we are seeing in major East Coast, Midwest and West Coast
markets instances where costs per [gross ratings] point are going down.”
Television stations are looking to the election to help reverse a sharp slide in revenue last
year. Thanks to political ads and Olympics advertising, TV station revenue may rise 8.8%
in 2008, compared with an 8.5% decline last year, according to numbers from SNL
Kagan.
Whether those predictions will prove true depends on factors including the economic
downturn. Nielsen in June said local spot TV spending in the first quarter was down 0.4%
in the top 100 markets and more in smaller markets.
A Democratic media buyer who didn’t want to be identified termed the lower rates “a
welcome surprise,” but said she wasn’t yet sure whether they will continue into the fall.
Another buyer said that beyond local candidates and initiatives, the presidential
campaigns have benefited, finding they can buy ads in battleground states for less than
expected.
A media representative for a number of stations, who also declined to be identified, said
some stations have cut prices to increase the number of advertising sales units they sell.
In the face of spending cutbacks by other marketers, stations have offered political
advertisers big discounts for buying advance packages of ads.
“We all know the economy is bad, and it’s a natural thing to cut the rate to get more
units,” the station representative said.
She said NBC Universal’s Olympics package is making it more difficult for non-NBC
stations because some advertisers don’t want to air commercials in other programs during
the two weeks of the Beijing Olympics.
Some stations are hanging back, realizing they likely will get the political ad money—at
higher prices—if they wait.
Evan Tracey, chief operating officer of TNS Media Intelligence’s Campaign Media
Analysis Group, which tracks political ad spending, said he can’t yet confirm the price
cuts.
Won’t Last Forever
“My feeling is they are buying more for less, and negotiating good prices now, but as
they get closer to Election Day, I suspect that trend will reverse itself,” Mr. Tracey said.
Mr. Bienstock predicted that even if the trend reverses, TV stations and politicians will at
best see pricing for this year equal to the level of two years ago.
Representatives of the Obama and McCain campaigns either declined to comment or
didn’t return calls seeking comment.
Koster outspends prez and gov hopefuls before Tuesday's
primary
By Jo Mannies
POST-DISPATCH POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
08/09/2008
State Sen. Chris Koster, a Democrat who barely won his party's nomination for attorney
general, spent more on TV ads in the state during the final week than any other candidate
on Tuesday's primary ballot.
In fact, Koster is the top spender on TV campaign ads during the last month — outpacing
even the two presumptive nominees for president, Republican John McCain and
Democrat Barack Obama.
Koster spent at least $1.21 million over the last month to run 2,722 ad spots, most of
them on TV stations in the state's three largest cities, according to TNSMI-Campaign
Media Analysis Group, a nonpartisan firm monitoring campaign ad spending for the
Post-Dispatch.
About a quarter of Koster's ad spending came in the final week. The ad getting the most
airtime during the finals days of his campaign was a spot that targeted his two chief
Democratic rivals: state Reps. Margaret Donnelly and Jeff Harris. Donnelly, of
Richmond Heights, trailed Koster by less than 800 votes statewide in the final unofficial
tally.
Donnelly spent at least $138,796 and Harris spent at least $220,487 on TV ads during the
final week. Both candidates concentrated most of their ad buys in St. Louis and Kansas
City.
Missourians for Honest Leadership, a campaign committee bankrolled largely by Koster's
ex-wife, spent $142,311 to run 275 anti-Koster ad spots during the final week of the
campaign.
McCain actually ran the most Missouri ad spots of any candidate during the last week —
1,031. But McCain spent less than Koster because more of McCain's ads aired in lowercost markets, including Columbia and Joplin, Mo.
Over the last month, Obama spent slightly more than McCain on TV ads, but Obama's
campaign spending dropped sharply during the last week. Even so, both presidential
contenders spent more than $1 million apiece in Missouri during the last month.
Meanwhile, Missouri's two Republican contenders for governor — U.S. Rep. Kenny
Hulshof, the victor, and state Treasurer Sarah Steelman — almost matched each other in
ad purchases during the final week and month of the campaign.
All told, over the last month, Steelman spent $928,135 to run 2,320 ad spots. Hulshof
spent $914,308 for 2,892 spots.
The Democratic victor for state treasurer, state Rep. Clint Zweifel, spent $375,650 on ads
running in the final two weeks of the campaign. According to the ad-monitoring firm,
Zweifel was the only Democratic candidate for the post to air TV ads on broadcast
stations.
McCain, Obama Compete in Olympic Ad Wars
Jennifer Parker
August 8, 2008
ABC News' Jennifer Parker reports: 2008 presidential candidates Sen. John McCain and
Sen. Barack Obama are going head to head during the Beijing Olympic Games,
competing against each other with multi-million dollar ad buys.
McCain, who must blow all of his campaign money before switching to public financing
during the convention, has gone for gold in the Olympic ad wars, buying $6 million in
advertising. That's a million more than Obama, who is spending $5 million.
McCain has made advertising history, purchasing the biggest national network buy ever
by a presidential candidate.
"John McCain is continuing an aggressive campaign schedule throughout the week next
week where he will discuss the contrast and the choice Americans have in the poll
particularly focusing on jobs and the economy," said McCain spokesperson Tucker
Bounds.
McCain's latest ad again accuses Obama of being a media sensation, and hits his
proposals to scrap President Bush's tax cut for families making over $250,000 a year.
"Life in the spotlight must be grand," the ad says over images of Obama on magazine
covers, "but for the rest of us times are tough…painful taxes, hard choices for your
budget. Not ready to lead. That's the real Obama."
Obama's ad, which airs on Saturday in all 50 states, touts the Democratic candidate's
proposal for green-energy jobs.
"The hands that built this nation can build a new economy," says Obama's new 30-second
ad.
Obama is on vacation in Hawaii through next week visiting his grandmother. His
campaign said the Obama ad is designed to remind voters about his energy plan.
“Though, like the rest of America, we’re all going to be focused on how many golds our
athletes bring home, we’ll be working just as hard to ensure that voters are hearing about
Senator Obama’s positive vision for our country and our new energy for America plan
that provides immediate relief and brings us closer to energy independence,” said Obama
spokesperson Nick Shapiro.
Media analysts say the unprecedented combined $11-million presidential candidates'
network ad buy is smart politics.
"This will be the highest amount of eyeballs that are available between now and election
day," said media analyst Evan Tracey, CEO of the TNS Campaign Media Analysis
Group.
Some 56 million viewers watched at least part of the opening ceremonies of the Athens
Games, according to Advertising Age, which first broke news of this year's 2008
presidential candidates network Olympic Games ad wars.
"This is special event programming," Tracey said, "watching will be all of the
demographics the candidates are fighting for -- young voter, older voters, blue-collar
workers."