Timmy Albertson
English 015, Section 10
Ms. Steding
5 November 2012
Technology and Severe Weather Forecasting
Over the course of the past few decades, the advancement of technology has led to drastic improvements
within the scientific community. No improvement can be better seen than in the realm of meteorology, where
forecasting accuracy has increased considerably since the original days. What started off as brief, simple and
vague forecasts have given way to precise and well developed forecasts as well as additional statements and
information to help a person make decisions about approaching storms. The high definition satellites and radar
images that a meteorologist shows on television are relatively new in respect to meteorology and were not
always as easily available. While people take for granted the forecasts provided by the Storm Prediction Center
and consistently state that meteorology is a game of guessing, most people do not realize how to the
advancement of technology has improved the forecasting of severe weather events.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC), formally known as the National Severe Storm Forecasting Center
(NSSFC) dates back to the 1950’s when severe weather forecasting began to increase. However, much like a
thunderstorm, the SPC has a longer history. The roots of the SPC can be traced back to the late 1880’s as a
spinoff of several attempts to forecast severe weather (Corfidi 507). There were previous attempts at producing
forecasts for severe weather events. Within the earliest investigations and studies conducted by the United
States Army Signal Corps meteorologists were pioneers in their field of study, and not much was known about
the storms they forecasted for. Today, what most meteorologists view as common sense, was not the case in the
early years of severe weather prediction. In fact, in May of 1884, the Army Signal Corps underwent an
investigation and study of a storm outbreak. The findings, albeit humorous by today’s standards, associated
thunderstorm activity with temperature, pressure, relative humidity, phases of the moon, and solar rotation
about its axis (Galway1 565).
The first notable attempts at forecasting severe weather came from the United States Army Signal Corps
in 1884 and 1885 when Sgt. John P. Finley issued a total of 57 experimental forecasts (Corfidi 508). Though his
forecasts were vague and remain the subject of much scrutiny by today’s researchers, it was the first time that a
person, primarily a meteorologist, was able to understand the climatology surrounding a tornado. Finley had
organized over four years’ worth of storm data and reports from around storms, and began to detail what the
conditions around a storm were like and what environment was necessary for a tornado to form. In the world of
today’s high speed radar, quick communications and readily available weather reports, Finley’s forecasts would
appear to be the work of a child. Yet in a time of no radars, very little observations and a long time lag between
station reports, the forecasts were a milestone achievement.
Such forecasts, however, did come with a level of uncertainty. Finley was not always correct, and fear
that issuing tornado alerts (the equivalent of a tornado warning in today’s world), would cause much fear and
panic among the citizens. In fact, it was believed that panic from a tornado alert would do more damage than the
actual tornado itself. In 1886, the United States Army Signal Corps would keep Finley’s forecasts away from
the public and ban the use of the word “tornado” within a forecast (Corfidi 508). The ban on the use of the word
“tornado” within public forecasting continued into 1905 when the United States Weather Bureau (precursor to
the National Weather Service) issued a statement “Forecasts of tornadoes are prohibited” (Galway2 585).
Meteorologists believed that the ability to forecast such storms was not yet possible as meteorologists did not
have a full understanding of the upper atmosphere (Corfidi 508). However, in the 1938, the ban was lifted but
tornado alert forecasts were only provided to officials for disaster planning.
When creating a severe weather forecast, two things are crucially important: time and information. No
meteorologist wants to be without his/her observations for the lower and upper atmospheres, and everybody
wants their observations at the moment they are taken. Today’s severe weather forecasters use weather balloons
which transmit data all the way back to the surface from the upper levels of the troposphere. With the advent of
high speed computers processing systems within the SPC have allowed forecasters to quickly get a detailed
summary of the current state of the atmosphere in all levels (Ostby 547), and the information has led to several
successful forecasts. Automated Surface Observation Stations (ASOS) litter airports around the United States
and Canada and send back nearly constant updates to forecasters ranging from temperature to wind speed and
surface pressure. If a meteorologists wanted to know the current weather in Toledo, Ohio at a moment’s notice,
all he/she must do is type in the four letter code (KTOL and/or KTDZ) and everything that is happening on the
surface will appear. As long as a city has an airport, then a meteorologist is able to quickly garner the
information they need. Yet, in the early years of severe weather forecasting, meteorologists did not have this
fortune. In fact, the process of gathering information for severe weather forecasting was much different, and
much slower. Today’s meteorologist have a high speed computer, the original meteorologists had nothing more
than a telegraph machine.
If a meteorologist wanted to know what the weather was doing at a current time of the day, the method
was gone about differently. Information needed when creating a severe weather forecast would be send to the
meteorologist through the telegraph machine. With the ASOS stations of today, we are quickly able to
determine whether or not a thunderstorm is approaching a certain location. However, in the early years of the
forecasting, this would have been a luxury. A meteorologist would have to hope that the location of the desired
information was close to a reporting station (which was normally a local weather bureau office). The
information would then be transmitted into code before being sent over the telegraph upon which the receiving
meteorologist would decipher it. There were no upper level atmosphere reports, nor were there the high speed,
rapid updated charts. This would also lead to issues upon carrying out severe weather alerts.
Despite the secrecy towards the public over the forecasting of severe weather, the popularity over
tornadoes was not common. In fact, the only place where people were fully concerned over tornadoes was those
in the Great Plains. During this time as well, the severe weather forecasting was transferred from the Army
Signal Corps to the public in June of 1886. Following the transfer to the public, on 1 October 1890, the
Department of Agriculture created the first Weather Bureau (which still maintained some of Finley’s findings).
It was during this time that the improvements of forecasting began to pick up pace.
The newly created Weather Bureau underwent one of its first investigations in the summer of 1892 when
trying to develop new ways of forecasting thunderstorms (Galway1 567). During this investigation a sharp curve
in the shape of a V in the temperatures around thunderstorms was noticed. With volunteer observers on the rise
as well, especially since the bureau had been placed in charge of the public, a steady amount of information
from the storms that were analyzed was received. This curve led meteorologists to realizing the importance it
had in generating thunderstorm forecasts. Indeed, the curve in the temperatures was that of a front, and with this
information being needed in the development of thunderstorm forecasts. None of those would have been noticed
had the surface chart not been implemented just a short time prior to the investigation. The surface chart is a
common application for meteorologists to use on a daily basis. In short, the chart displays a selected area with
the symbols of fronts, temperature and dew point readings as well as significant weather, pressure isobars and
wind direction (see Chart 1 for details). There were no guidelines or rules for forecasting severe weather
(Galway1 567), and most meteorologists did not know what they were looking for when examining data and
reports of thunderstorm development over the surface charts.
The surface chart had proved its ability, and with its use in the summer of 1892, meteorologists
discovered two classes of thunderstorms: storms which moved west to east in respect to a surface cyclonic
system, storms in the second class were heat thunderstorms and occurred over a large area without a definite
path (Galway1 567). Meteorologists also came to realize over the course of the investigation was that low
pressures to the west could produce thunderstorms, and were likely to happen in the late afternoon and/or
evening. Today, this seems to be common knowledge, yet in the early days of the severe weather forecasting, no
meteorologist would have guessed that a low pressure system could easily be the identifier to the origins of a
thunderstorm. In fact, unlike the Army Signal Corps who focused on severe weather predictions, the Weather
Bureau forecasted only forecasting regular thunderstorms as well. The surface charts helped the forecasters of
the Weather Bureau have an 86-percent forecast accuracy for June 1892 (Galway1 568). By the 1930’s, the
surface chart had made its first public appearance and has become a staple of weather updates ever since.
But as the years passed on, so did the advancement in the ability of the meteorologists to create a
forecast. The meteorologists were becoming more experienced with their ability to make judgments based on
past events and what to look for in upcoming weather events. Yet, there were still many areas that were left
greatly unsolved, primarily the tornado. Meteorologists were having a hard time ascertaining the potential
origins of a tornado, let alone creating a forecast for the tornadoes. The problem remained through the 1930’s
and up through most of the early 1940’s.
In the early 1940’s, there the central part of the United States experienced a high number of tornadoes,
and most of those tornadoes came with little to no warning at all. In the spring of following year, the Weather
Bureau began to form tornado alerts for the cities of Wichita, Kansas City and St. Louis. In the same year,
military bases which had air fields also began to request alerts for tornados from the Weather Bureau. What
resulted were 200 field observers which reported severe (and sometime tornadic) weather to the Weather
Bureau. The observers were local volunteers who were briefly trained on what to report and what to watch and
report (Galway1 569). The reports were called in to the Weather Bureau which relayed the information to the
nearby cities and military bases. Radar was still in its early years during this time, and the majority of weather
radars were actually fixed radars on planes that sat on the airport tarmacs. However, this did come with a
downside: warnings were only issued if a storm was in progress and reports were received from observers.
Tornado warnings and forecasts were still in their infancy in the Weather Bureau until a single event made one
of the most dramatic and technological advances in severe weather forecasting.
On the evening of March 20th, 1948, at the Tinker Air Field just outside of Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, a
tornado tore through the base with no warning. The tornado caused $10 million worth of damage, destroying
aircraft and shattering the windows of the air traffic control tower. Several injuries resulted, yet there were no
fatalities (Corfidi 509). The tornado resulted in the general commander of the airbase to establish a team of
meteorologists to investigate what caused the tornado and to determine a method of forecasting severe weather
events in the future. Major Fawbush and Captain Miller were two of the meteorologists credited with making
the most dramatic findings. Using reports collected from the evening that the storm struck, Fawbush and Miller
were able to recognize the indications of possible tornado events. Their results were quickly put to the test only
five days later when they forecasted a tornado event for Tinker Airfield. That evening, on March 25th, a tornado
tore through the base. Yet, the advanced warning from the forecasts at which Fawbush and Miller had created
resulted in the base taking preparations (Corfidi 509). Because of their resounding forecast and potentially
saving the lives of fellow soldiers at the base, the Severe Weather Warning Center (SWWC was established at
Tinker Airfield in February of 1951, however the SWWC was for Air Force basis and their personal, not the
general public.
Despite a ban on the forecasts being released to the public, in fear that it would insight panic, the media
and the civilian population quickly grew. Meteorologists began to develop new tactics in figuring out how
tornadoes formed and understanding their parent thunderstorms as well. As aircraft use became more common,
pilots began to fly their planes and measure conditions around airfields and airports. By 1950, the Weather
Bureau even had sixteen automated stations around Washington DC which recorded pressure, temperature,
humidity and precipitation (Galway1 572).
In June of 1950, popularity for tornado forecasting increased that the “Tornado Project” was developed.
The project was to investigate atmospheric pressure jumps around weather events (Galway1 572). Technology
developed with the project, and soon the project was using the latest high speed pressure sensors. Rawinsondes,
the precursor to today’s weather balloons, were developed and deployed at the stations involved in the report.
The Weather Bureau even provided automated weather station’s with radar. The technology that was developed
and deployed during the project would have been unheard only ten years prior. Though it is common for the
public to see today, and some people have weather stations in their own homes, at the turn of the 1950’s this
technology was both new and drastically important to understanding the weather they were forecasting.
As the project went on for its third time, the Weather Bureau was beginning to close the gap between the
lag in technology and the understanding of the meteorological events they were predicting. By 1953, the
Weather Bureau, Air Force, Civil Aerospace Administration and 128 cooperative observers were involved in
ten states at uncovering the mysteries of severe weather events. Weather balloons also provided to be a key
element in the early 1950’s as well.
The newly formed severe weather forecasting unit at the Weather Bureau noticed that on the morning of
March 17, 1952, a strong wave of low pressure in the upper atmosphere was heading into the Colorado. Only a
few years earlier, this would not have been known as the technology needed was not yet available and
meteorologists would not have known if that was of importance to severe weather forecasting. Nonetheless, the
severe weather unit issued the first ever public “Tornado bulletin” for eastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma,
southern Arkansas and Louisiana (Corfidi 511). However, no tornadoes formed, but unlike previous attempts at
forecasting severe weather events, this time meteorologists were able to decipher what had happened. With this
knowledge, they could now see which weather elements were key, and what they might do that could prohibit a
storm from producing a tornado.
Today, if a Tornado Watch was to be issued and nothing was to happen, the SPC would go under harsh
criticism and not preforming their jobs. Fortunately for the Weather Bureau at this time, the public knew that
tornado forecasting was still in infancy. Two more tornado bulletins were issued on March 21, 1952, the first
proved better results. Tornados did form within the bulletin, but the majority of the tornados developed outside
of the bulletin. The second watch of the day was successful in that all but one tornado formed within the
bulletin (Corfidi 513). There was still room for technology to improve in meteorology forecasting.
On July 30, 1953, the first criteria for a severe thunderstorm were established. The criteria still remains
nearly the same today as it did fifty years ago:
1. Surface Wind gusts from 50 to 75 mph.
2. Severe turbulence aloft.
3. Hail aloft and/or at the surface up to 1 inch diameter. (Galway2 588).
During the Space Race, the first successful weather satellite was launched on April 1, 1960. For
meteorologists, this was a dream come true. The weather satellite was able to take photographs of the cloud tops
from space, send them down to the forecast offices where they could be analyzed. Meteorologists were no
longer at the mercy of station and field observers, if they wanted to see a low pressure system in an area with no
reports, they could view it from a satellite. Satellite imagery would play a key role in detecting large areas of
low pressures over open waters, and eventually would play an even larger role in the forecasting of hurricanes,
such as Hurricane Camille in 1969.
Radar and technology would continue to advance through the 1960’s and into the years following.
Eventually, computer models were developed and used which gave meteorologists a longer lead time on severe
weather events. Every busted severe weather forecast that happened proved beneficial to the meteorologists as
they learned from their mistakes and every successful forecast lead to more applause from the public and the
meteorological society.
Today, the Storm Prediction Center forecasts for not just tornadoes, but for severe weather, blizzards,
droughts and high winds. Vague forecasts from the past have long given way to watches, warnings, convective
storm outlooks, hazardous weather outlooks, mesoscale discussions to name a few. Yet, meteorology still has a
downfall; understanding it. Despite all of the improved technology and information that is being discovered
every day at the weather offices across the nation, meteorologists still do not know everything. Like the early
pioneers of meteorology forecasting, meteorologists only look for things in what they know. Once in a while,
something new will be discovered, but the results always prove to be the same: meteorology is still a science
that is not yet perfected and despite the high definition radar images and station observations at the push of a
finger on the keyboard, meteorologists still have many mysteries to uncover. The advancement of technology
has played the most crucial role in forecasting severe weather and issuing watches and warnings which has led
to greater accuracy that most people take for granted.
Chart 1: An example of a Surface Chart used by forecasters, provided by the HPC with collaboration from both the OPC and NHC. The chart
indicates the positions of fronts and pressure centers. Charts are developed from surface observations which meteorologists analyze and
develop a chart based on the information they are provided with. Surface observations are added to the chart to give a meteorologist an
understanding of the weather around the selected area which assist the forecaster in predicting the weather. Pressure isobars are provided as
well to show the areas of pressure locations and their realm of influence. This chart was issued by NOAA on November 6, 2012 at 10:21UTC
(5:21 AM EST).
Works Cited
Corfidi, Stephen F. “The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center”. Weather and Forecasting 14.4
(1999): 507-25. Print.
Galway1, Joseph G. “The Evolution of Severe Thunderstorm Criteria within the Weather Service.” Weather and
Forecasting 4.4 (1989): 582-92. Print.
Galway2, Joseph G. “Early Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting and Research by the United States Weather
Bureau.” Weather and Forecasting 7.4 (1992): 564-87. Print.
Ostby, Frederick P. “Operations of the National Severe Storms Forecasting Center.” Weather and Forecasting
7.4 (1992): 546-63. Spc.noaa.gov/publications. SPC Publications. Web. 22 Oct. 2012.