The Bradford Labour
Market: Performance,
Dynamics and Challenges
Report by the Regional
Economic Intelligence Unit (REIU)
1
Introduction and Context ………………………………………………………......................3
Policy Context…………………………………………………………………………………..4
National and Local Economic Context………………………………………………………..6
Current and Projected Labour Demand …………………………………………………….11
Local Supply of Labour and Skills ………………………………………………………......29
Conclusions and Assessment of Alignment ………………………………………………..47
2
1. Introduction and context
This report sets out the findings of an in-depth analysis of the strengths and weaknesses
of the local labour market in Bradford and the wider Leeds City Region. In particular, it
focuses on the skills of the local residents and how these are changing over time. It also
examines recent trends and forecasts of the local and City Region economy and
examines whether there is a mismatch between the supply of and demand for labour
locally and within the City Region.
The report has been commissioned by Leeds City College (LCC) through the Local
Response Fund. This is a European Social Fund initiative managed by the college and
funded through the Skills Support for the Workforce programme. The project works
closely with small and medium employers (SMEs) and micro-businesses in the Leeds
City Region to facilitate free accredited training, support and bespoke interventions to
enhance skills and drive up productivity.
The brief set out that the quality of labour market analysis significantly affects the
ability of the Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) and local partners to engage effectively
with businesses and with the Skills Network in order to shape and align provision. It
noted that it is vital that employment and skills issues in the LCR are considered in the
context of the shifts in the composition of the LCR economy and upon the key growth
and employment sectors if the LEPs role as strategic influencer of skills provision is to
be enhanced.
It set out that making labour market information available at the local authority level is
also vital if the priorities of local areas are to be understood and acted upon. Local
partners (Colleges and Local Authorities) will be involved in determining local research
priorities and resulting action plans and so are key stakeholders in this research.
The brief set out that the analyses should contain:
•
A contextual analysis of the local economy.
•
An analysis of local skills supply.
•
An analysis of skills demand and an assessment of the alignment / mismatch
between the two.
3
It notes that the analysis should reflect the local priorities of each area and should draw
upon all relevant data sources and forecasts.
To respond to these requirements, this report assesses the local economic context and
the demand and supply side challenges facing the labour market. It uses a range of
indicators from a number of authoritative sources.
The report goes further than traditional profiling of the local labour market as it
analyses the changing nature of the local, City Region and national economies and what
the required occupations and skills levels are likely to be to meet these changes. It
makes use of both the Yorkshire and Humberside Regional Economic Model (REM) and
projections of future labour demand by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills
(UKCES). It also sets out employers views on current skills gaps in the City Region.
Finally, it assesses the extent that the local labour force in Bradford is currently
adapting to these changes, what its strengths and weaknesses are and what more is
likely to be needed in future to meet the demands of the changing economy. This will
provide messages for local providers as well as partners.
This report particularly focussing on Bradford, as well as the wider LCR is one of nine
local area reports produced for local authority areas within the City Region.
2. Policy context
Leeds City Region Enterprise Partnership’s (LEP) Strategic Economic Plan (SEP) was
submitted to central government in Spring 2014. This plan is founded on four strategic
pillars, which respond to identified key economic challenges and opportunities. These
priorities are:
1. Supporting growing businesses
2. Developing a skilled and flexible workforce
3. Building a resource smart City Region
4. Delivering the infrastructure for growth
Priority 1 aims to encourage and support City Region companies who want to grow,
export and to innovate in any industry, but particularly in six principle industries:
•
•
•
•
•
•
innovative manufacturing;
financial & professional services;
health & life sciences;
low carbon & environmental industries;
digital & creative industries;
food & drink
4
Over the long term under Priority 2, the ambition is to create a NEET-free City Region,
with more and better jobs, and the skilled and flexible local workforce to sustain them.
The SEP set out that the economy requires a skilled and flexible workforce to thrive and
grow. Improving skills by supporting businesses to unlock the potential of the existing
and future workforce is therefore vital to accelerate productivity, competitiveness and
economic prosperity across the City Region.
Considerable progress has already been made with the ‘NEET-free City Region’
ambition agreed in the 2012 City Deal, and LCR now has the aspiration to become a
higher-skilled, higher-wage economy by tackling persistent underemployment and
supporting people to gain the skills to help them get access to more and better jobs.
The current Skills Plan focuses on three central themes, each with a distinct response to
the challenges ahead and focused on delivering a better skilled, more productive and
more prosperous City Region:
•
building skills in education;
•
transition into work; and
•
raising demand and improving skills
On the basis of these plans, in the period ahead the LEP intends to focus on the
following priorities in terms of skills and the labour market:
•
a skills capital investment programme to ensure that key sectors and sources of
growth are supported by high quality skills and education facilities;
•
a pioneering Skills Hub and Skills Fund Programme to address the skills issues
of SMEs in sectors which present the greatest opportunities for economic and
employment growth;
•
initiatives to promote enterprise, entrepreneurship and innovation in young
people;
•
continued expansion of the City Region Apprenticeship Hub Plus Programme
that provides a central local point of contact for free, independent and better coordinated advice and support on the benefits of apprenticeships to SMEs;
•
labour market initiatives to extend the scope of the recently awarded Cabinet
Office Youth Contract 18-24 Head Start model and the proven Devolved Youth
Contract;
5
•
actively developing skills provision in readiness for high speed rail investment;
and
•
explore the opportunity for national centres of provision in the Advanced
Engineering and Software Engineering to address the significant shortages
experienced in these areas.
These priorities and key sectors need to be considered when considering the current
supply and demand for skills, locally and across the LCR.
3. National and local economic context
This section sets the context for the analysis to follow by analysing recent economic and
labour market changes nationally and in the LCR and Bradford over the past decade, as
well as the period since the end of the 2008/09 recession.
As demonstrated in the following graphics, the UK economy is undergoing an
unprecedented period of change. Recent economic trends, particularly since the
recession, are combining with longer term structural changes in the economy to
produce new and evolving challenges. At the same time, seeking to tackle the
entrenched spatial disparities in economic and social conditions within the UK remains
an ongoing policy concern.
The period of recovery in the UK since the recession has perplexed economists and
other commentators. A period of relatively low GDP growth followed the recession,
although this has since accelerated. The particularly noteworthy trend has been the
relatively low levels of unemployment which have continued to reduce, as
demonstrated in Figures 1 and 2 - in contrast to trends in previous recessions.
This is partly explained by a number of factors including stagnant and falling incomes
(Figure 3), together with increased part time work and self-employment (Figure 4). At
the same time, wider structural changes are taking place in the structure of both
national and regional economies in terms of changing sectors, occupations and
technologies. These are examined further in the sections below.
6
Figure 1: UK GDP and employment growth 1975-2014
14.0
5.0
12.0
4.0
3.0
10.0
2.0
8.0
1.0
6.0
0.0
4.0
-1.0
-2.0
0.0
-3.0
1975 Q1
1977 Q2
1979 Q3
1981 Q4
1984 Q1
1986 Q2
1988 Q3
1990 Q4
1993 Q1
1995 Q2
1997 Q3
1999 Q4
2002 Q1
2004 Q2
2006 Q3
2008 Q4
2011 Q1
2013 Q2
2.0
Source: ONS
Figure 2: UK Unemployment and JSA rates 1999-2014
7
% Unemployment
% Quarterly GDP growth
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
UK unemployment rate
3.0
UK JSA rate
2.0
1.0
August 1999
June 2000
April 2001
February 2002
December 2002
October 2003
August 2004
June 2005
April 2006
February 2007
December 2007
October 2008
August 2009
June 2010
April 2011
February 2012
December 2012
October 2013
0.0
Source: ONS
Figure 3: National median incomes growth 2000-2014
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: ONS
Figure 4: UK rates of part time work and self-employment
8
30.0
25.0
20.0
self employment
part time employment
15.0
10.0
5.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: ONS
These national trends help to explain the local trends that are shown in this report;
however local context is also likely to be a factor. What is clear is that the context for
both the supply of, and demand for skills is evolving. The challenge for local policy
makers and providers is to be cognisant of these changes and seek to shape provision
accordingly.
Table 1 below shows the headline local economic context in Bradford. The district has a
total working age population of over 329,000, a 9% increase over the last decade. The
total number of people who work in Bradford is over 188,000 employees, while the
most recent annual GVA estimate is almost £7.3bn.
Table 1: Summary of local economic context
Leeds City
Region
Bradford
Total working age
population
% change in working
age population 2003-13
GVA
GVA per FTE
employee
England
329000
1912200
34351400
9.4
6.5
6.9
7,269.25
57,087.44
1,372,121.00
42.88
49.15
54.13
9
Total employment
188,388
1,270,226
23,631,920
Source: ONS
A key point in understanding local economic geography is that the nature of local
residents of an area may be very different to the workforce of an area due to patterns of
commuting. The most recent release from the 2011 census shows that 70% of Bradford
residents also work in the district. Job density, the measure of employees as a
proportion of the resident working age population is 0.65, below the LCR average. Both
of these suggest that Bradford is one of the medium level employment nodes within the
City Region. The district has a small net outflow of commuters.
Table 2: Labour market geography
Bradford
Leeds City Region
Live work rate
0.70
0.92
Job density
0.65
0.75
Net commuting as
a % of people in
work
-2.7
0.1
England
0.79
Source: ONS
As well as locally, residents of Bradford principally work in Leeds (12.5%), Calderdale
(2.8%), Kirklees (2.3%) and Craven (1.9%) demonstrating the close links between the
Bradford and Leeds economies. The demand for labour in these, as well as other
surrounding areas, is also important for local residents.
The incomes of the workforce of Bradford are marginally higher than the resident
incomes in the area, suggesting a relatively slight importing of higher earners to the
district. Incomes in Bradford are however among the lowest in the LCR.
10
Figure 5: Median resident and workplace incomes 2014 compared (£)
560.0
540.0
520.0
500.0
480.0
Workplace incomes
460.0
Resident incomes
440.0
420.0
400.0
Source: ONS
11
4. Current and projected demand for labour
This section examines the potential demand for skills from the local and City Region
economy and its firms, and what this may mean for the local supply of labour described
in the previous section. It analyses projected demand across key sectors to understand
where future skills demand might be. It then sets out analysis of the UKCES Employer
Skills Survey to understand their views of current gaps in the labour market and
expectations about future demand for skills.
As shown in the previous section, the latest figures show that there are approximately
188,000 jobs in Bradford, with a job density of 0.65.
Figure 6 shows how this employment breaks down by sector. It confirms that the
principle private sectors in Bradford are manufacturing, motor trades and retail and
wholesale.
Figure 6: Breakdown of broad industrial sectors 2013
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Bradford
Leeds City Region
England
Source: BRES
12
This is confirmed by Table 3 below which sets out a set of Location Quotients which
gives an indication of levels of specialisation in the Bradford and LCR economy. This
method measures the extent of local concentration of employment in each sector
compared to national levels.
It sets out a detailed breakdown by sector. Firstly broad industrial sectors are analysed,
followed by a more detailed set of sub sectors. LQ values of over 1 suggest some degree
of specialisation, with over 1.5 traditionally considered to be particularly significant.
In terms of broad sectors, manufacturing, finance and insurance and business
administration are the principle specialisms in Bradford. Table 4 shows particular
specialisms in particular areas of manufacturing.
Table 3: Location Quotients for broad sectors 2013
Bradford
Leeds City Region
Primary industries
0.8
0.8
Manufacturing
1.5
1.2
Construction
0.7
0.9
Motor trades, retail & wholesale
1.0
1.0
Transport & storage
0.8
1.1
Accommodation & food
0.6
0.9
ICT
0.7
0.6
Finance & insurance
1.0
1.0
Property
1.0
1.0
Professional, scientific & technical
0.8
0.9
Business administration
0.7
1.0
13
Public services
1.3
1.1
Arts, entertainment & recreation
0.7
0.9
Source: BRES
Table 4: Location Quotients for detailed sectors 2013
Industry
Bradford
Leeds City
Region
Water collection, treatment and supply
8.0
2.5
Manufacture of textiles
3.5
3.1
Manufacture of paper and paper products
3.0
1.7
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products
3.0
1.4
Printing and reproduction of recorded media
2.9
1.8
Manufacture of beverages
2.6
2.4
Publishing activities
2.3
0.7
Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.
2.3
1.7
Manufacture of electrical equipment
2.0
2.0
Manufacture of furniture
1.9
1.9
Source: BRES
Future projections by sector
This section makes use of the Regional Economic Model (REM) to establish what is
likely to happen to GVA (output) and employment for the broad industrial sectors in
Bradford and the wider LCR.
The model shows that the sectors forecast to have the largest increase in output are
construction, ICT and finance and insurance, as well as transport and storage and
professional services.
14
Figure 7: Forecast % change in GVA by sector in Bradford and the LCR 2014-2031
100
80
60
40
20
Bradford
0
Wholesale & Retail
Utilities
Transport & storage
Public Services
Professional Services
Manufacturing
ICT
Finance & Insurance
Extraction & Mining
-60
Construction
-40
Agriculture, Forestry &
Fishing
Accommodation, Food &
Recreation
-20
LCR
Source: Experian
There is a different picture in terms of projected employment. Construction is again
projected to see a large increase, while accommodation and food, as well as ICT,
professional services and transport and storage are also projected to see increases.
Manufacturing and primary industries are forecast to see reductions in employment
over the coming decade.
Figure 8: Forecast % change in FTE employment by sector in Bradford and the LCR
2014-2031
15
50
40
30
20
10
Bradford
0
Wholesale & Retail
Utilities
Transport & storage
Public Services
Professional Services
Manufacturing
ICT
Finance & Insurance
-40
Extraction & Mining
-30
Construction
-20
Agriculture, Forestry &
Fishing
Accommodation, Food
& Recreation
-10
LCR
Source: Experian
These forecasts for GVA and employment are summarised for Bradford in Figure 9
below. They emphasise the contrast in which sectors growth in each is likely to come
from.
Figure 9: Forecast change in GVA and FTE employment by sector in Bradford 2014-2031
16
100
80
60
40
20
GVA
0
Wholesale & Retail
Utilities
Transport & storage
Public Services
Professional & Other Private
Services
Manufacturing
Information &
communication
Finance & Insurance
Extraction & Mining
Construction
-40
Agriculture, Forestry &
Fishing
Accommodation, Food
Services & Recreation
-20
FTE
Source: Experian
Employer demand for skills
The UK Commission for Employment and Skills (UKCES) conducts an Employer Skills
Survey every other year. The Commission believes that this is one of the largest and
“richest” surveys of employers in the world, interviewing over 91,000 employers in
every sector across the UK. It gives a comprehensive picture of skills needs and training
investment, including vacancies and skills shortages, employee skill gaps and the
recruitment of education leavers and young people. In the following section, the results
from the 2013 survey are presented, focusing on LCR-specific findings as this is the
lowest level of coverage.
The following definitions are useful in interpreting the results of the survey.
•
Hard-to-fill vacancies - vacancies which are proving difficult to fill, as defined
by the establishment
•
Skill shortage vacancies - vacancies which are proving difficult to fill due to the
establishment not being able to find applicants with the appropriate skills,
qualifications or experience.
•
Skills gap – this is where an employee is not fully proficient, i.e. is not able to do
their job to the required level.
17
The ESS estimated that there were almost 24,300 vacancies in the LCR. Of these over
5,000 were deemed to be hard-to-fill. 15% of firms had at least one vacancy of which 4%
had a vacancy that was hard to fill, and 3% had a skills shortage vacancy.
Table 5: Total job vacancies
LCR
Total number of vacancies
24275
Total number of hard to fill
vacancies
5323
Total number of skills shortage
vacancies
4063
Source: UKCES ESS
Table 6: % of firms with identified vacancies 2013
Have at least one vacancy
LCR
UK
14%
15%
Have at least one vacancy that is 4%
hard to fill
5%
Have a skills shortage vacancy
3%
4%
Average vacancies per
establishment with vacancies
2.3
2.6
Source: UKCES ESS
Of those employers who reported at least one vacancy in the LCR, 30% had a hard to fill
vacancy and 24% reported a skills shortage.
Figure 10: % of employers reporting at least one vacancy
18
40%
35%
30%
Have at least one
vacancy that is hard
to fill
25%
20%
Have a skills
shortage vacancy
15%
10%
5%
0%
LCR
Total
Source:
UKCES ESS
Figure 11 below shows that admin and clerical roles and sales and customer services
were the top two occupations identified as having vacancies, followed by caring and
leisure and skilled trades. The principle occupations identified were in skilled trades,
professionals and associate professionals. Other occupations identified included sales
and customer services and caring and leisure occupations.
19
Figure 11: job vacancies by occupation
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Leeds City Region
Source: UKCESS ESS
Figure 12: skills shortages by occupation
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Source: UKCESS ESS
Higher Level Skills Needs in the City Region
20
While the data in this national survey is at the Leeds City Region level, it provides a
useful proxy for employers’ views on the supply of skills coming on stream for local
firms. It possibly needs to be considered that employers are likely to answer these
against their ideal needs of new employees, but the reality is that they will take a more
pragmatic approach to the need to develop new staff.
As Table 7 shows, there are a range of skills that aren’t immediately available from local
applicants. The majority have concerns about practical, job specific skills, as might be
expected, but a range of wider skills and knowledge gaps were identified including
planning and organisation, communication and technical expertise.
Table 7: Skills found difficult to obtain from applicants
Skill
UK
Leeds City Region
Technical, practical or job specific skills
62%
62%
Planning and Organisation skills
45%
50%
Customer handling skills
43%
48%
Problem solving skills
41%
43%
Team working skills
34%
42%
Strategic Management skills
31%
42%
Oral communication skills
42%
41%
Written communication skills
39%
39%
Literacy skills
34%
32%
Numeracy skills
28%
23%
Advanced IT or software skills
23%
18%
Basic computer literacy / using IT
18%
18%
Foreign language skills
17%
13%
No particular skills difficulties
3%
5%
Experience/lack of product knowledge
3%
4%
Source: UKCES ESS
21
The drivers of some of these concerns are set out in the table below. Being new to the
role is understandable, however employers cite issues of training, skills, motivation, as
well as changing technologies and products. All of these point to challenges for the
wider provision of skills, as well as for apprenticeships.
Table 8: Causes of skills gaps
Leeds City
Region
Their training is currently only partially completed
62%
They are new to the role
61%
Staff lack motivation
33%
They have been on training but their performance has not
improved sufficiently
31%
They have not received the appropriate training
25%
The introduction of new working practices
24%
Unable to recruit staff with the required skills
24%
The development of new products and service
20%
The introduction of new technology
19%
Problems retaining staff
10%
Lack of other skills e.g. communication, interpersonal*
1%
Lack of aptitude to do job/reached maximum potential*
1%
Non-work related problems e.g. health or personal problems*
1%
Staff are too old to carry out the work required*
1%
Source: UKCES ESS
22
71% of firms have not recruited those leaving education – both nationally and in the
LCR. As might be expected, the majority of those recruited straight from education are
from universities and colleges, rather than from schools. This fits with the finding in the
following table about these establishments – and older leavers – being better prepared
for work.
Table 9: Recruited anyone to their first job on leaving school, college or university in the
last 2-3 years
UK
Leeds City
Region
Yes - 16 year olds recruited to first job from school
8%
10%
Yes - 17 or 18 year olds recruited to first job from school
11%
11%
Yes - 17 or 18 year olds recruited to first job from FE
College
12%
14%
Yes - Recruited to their first job from University or other 14%
Higher Education institution
14%
No, have not recruited education leavers
71%
71%
Any
27%
28%
Source: UKCES ESS
Table 10: Perspectives on levels of preparedness for work
Very Well/ Well
Prepared
Poor/ Very Poor
Prepared
LCR National
average
LCR National
Average
16 yrs
63%
59%
33%
36%
17-18 yrs (School)
66%
66%
30%
29%
17-18 yrs (College)
75%
74%
20%
22%
HE Graduate
87%
83%
10%
13%
Age
Source: UKCES ESS
23
These views were also reflected when asked about these groups of leaver’s readiness for
work. While there were issues cited with all groups, a greater proportion had concerns
about younger leavers with less educational attainment.
Table 11: Perspectives on first time employee’s skills gaps in LCR
Age
17-18 yrs
(School)
16 yrs
17-18 yrs
(College)
HE Graduate
LCR
National LCR
average
National LCR
average
National LCR
average
National
average
8%
10%
7%
9%
5%
7%
3%
5%
Poor
14%
attitude/personality &
motivation
18%
12%
15%
8%
11%
3%
5%
Lack of working world 21%
/ life experience or
maturity
23%
19%
18%
12%
14%
6%
8%
Poor Education,
numeracy, literacy
skills
10%
14%
9%
11%
6%
9%
3%
6%
None / recruits not
poorly prepared
67%
64%
70%
71%
80%
78%
90%
87%
Lack required skills
Source: UKCES ESS
Future demand
UKCES also model future the demands of the national economy, including providing
sub national breakdowns including for the LCR. The results are based on the use of a
multi-sectoral, regional macroeconomic model, combined with occupational,
replacement demand and qualification modules. The results are intended to provide a
statistical foundation for the deliberations of all those with an interest in the supply of
and demand for skills.
24
As shown in table 12 and figure 13 below, higher occupations are projected to increase
as a share of the total over the course of the coming decade. There is a significant
projected demand for higher level occupations such as managers and directors,
professional and technical occupations, as well as caring, leisure and other services.
Other occupations are projected to see a reduction in employment.
Table 12: Projected employment change by occupation - % change 2012-22
2012-2022
1. Managers, directors and senior officials
15.9
2. Professional occupations
17.5
3. Associate professional and technical
12.9
4. Administrative and secretarial
-10.2
5. Skilled trades occupations
-11.3
6. Caring, leisure and other service
22.2
7. Sales and customer service
-2.0
8. Process, plant and machine operatives
-13.1
9. Elementary occupations
-1.6
Total
4.2
Source: UKCESS Working Futures
25
Figure 13: Projected future occupations 2012 and 2022 percentages
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
2012
0.0
2022
Source: UKCESS Working Futures
When broken down by more detailed occupations, UKCES forecast that the main
changes will be in care services and health professionals, customer services, managers
and directors and other professional occupations. The principal reductions are in more
elementary occupations in manufacturing and administration.
Table 13: projected % change by detailed occupation levels 2012-22
2012-2022
Caring personal service occupations
28%
Health and social care associate professionals
27%
Health professionals
24%
Customer service occupations
23%
Corporate managers and directors
22%
Business, media and public service professionals
20%
26
Science, research, engineering and technology professionals
20%
Business and public service associate professionals
16%
Culture, media and sports occupations
15%
Science, engineering and technology associate professionals
10%
Teaching and educational professionals
6%
Other managers and proprietors
4%
All occupations
4%
Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations
4%
Skilled construction and building trades
2%
Elementary trades and related occupations
0%
Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives
-1%
Elementary administration and service occupations
-2%
Administrative occupations
-3%
Skilled agricultural and related trades
-8%
Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades
-9%
Sales occupations
-11%
Protective service occupations
-11%
Process, plant and machine operatives
-28%
Secretarial and related occupations
-32%
Textiles, printing and other skilled trades
-41%
Source: UKCESS Working Futures
The model also forecasts demand for skills. It projects a continuation of the up skilling
of the workforce seen in recent decades with greater proportions of degrees and higher
qualifications with a corresponding reduction in qualifications of levels of A Levels and
below.
27
Figure 14: Projected future skills requirements in the LCR 2012-22
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
2012
2017
5.0
2022
0.0
Source: UKCESS Working Futures
The model also projects future employment by key sector. While using a different
model to the REM, it largely agrees with most of the principal growth sectors, including
ICT, professional services, construction and health and social work. It also agrees on the
sectors most likely to see employment decline including manufacturing and primary
industries.
28
Table 14: Future demand by sector - % change 2012-22
Information technology
27.0
Electricity and gas
16.4
Professional services
13.7
Construction
11.8
Health and social work
11.2
Transport and storage
9.9
Real estate
9.7
Water and sewerage
8.4
Support services
7.5
Finance and insurance
7.3
Other services
6.9
Arts and entertainment
4.5
Engineering
4.2
Media
3.3
Wholesale and retail trade
2.9
Accommodation and food
2.6
Education
-2.7
Public admin. and defence
-9.4
Food drink and tobacco
-10.0
Rest of manufacturing
-15.1
Agriculture
-20.0
Mining and quarrying
-22.7
29
5. Local supply of labour and skills
This section of the report analyses the local supply of labour and skills of residents of
Bradford and the wider LCR and compares these to national trends. It firstly analyses
overall trends in employment and unemployment, followed by current and recent
trends in occupations. This is followed by an extensive analysis of trends in the supply
of skills, including recent trends in higher education and apprenticeships.
The skills section also considers the sectors, skills levels and occupations of those
currently becoming qualified in Bradford and the LCR.
Employment and unemployment
Local trends mirror the national trends in many ways, Figure 15 below shows that –
positively - the employment rate in the district has increased in recent years and at a
faster rate than both nationally and across the LCR. The latest figure is over 73.4%,
250,000 people in work.
Figure 15: Employment rate 2008-13 (3 year rolling average)
78.0
76.0
74.0
Bradford
72.0
LCR
England
70.0
68.0
66.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: ONS
At the same time, unemployment has reduced. While levels are higher than nationally
and the LCR average, the unemployment rate has reduced to below 10%.
30
Figure 16: Unemployment rate 2005-2014 (3 year rolling average)
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
Bradford
LCR
6.0
England
4.0
2.0
0.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: ONS modelled figures
Table 15 below shows the latest data on the number and proportion of young people
not in employment, education or training (NEET). The figures suggest that over 900
young people – almost 6%) were known to be NEET.
Table 15: Number and % 16-18 year olds NEET 2013
Estimated
number
Barnsley
440
Bradford
980
Calderdale
440
Kirklees
890
Leeds
1,530
North Yorkshire
810
Wakefield
620
York
240
England
92,240
Source: Department of Education
%
5.4%
5.4%
5.7%
5.7%
6.7%
4.3%
5.3%
4.2%
5%
31
In line with national trends, levels of self-employment have increased in Bradford since
2012. They have gone ahead of LCR levels to close the gap on national levels with
almost 9% of employees now self-employed in the district.
Figure 17: % self-employed 2007-14
11.0
10.0
9.0
Bradford
8.0
LCR
England
7.0
6.0
5.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: ONS
Figure 18 below shows how the proportion of part-time employment increased after the
recession to higher levels than the national and LCR average. 28% of those in
employment now work part time, compared to 23% in 2008.
32
Figure 18: % part time employment 2007-14
29.0
28.0
27.0
26.0
25.0
Bradford
24.0
LCR
23.0
England
22.0
21.0
20.0
19.0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: ONS
Occupations
Figure 19 shows the latest proportions of employees in particular occupations in
Bradford, compared to the LCR and nationally. It shows that the resident workforce of
Bradford has a smaller proportion of “higher end” occupations including managers and
directors, professional and technical, while relatively more workers involved in
elementary occupations, sales and customer services and caring and leisure.
33
Figure 19: Standard occupations 2014
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
Bradford
5.0
LCR
0.0
England
Source: ONS
These occupations have seen a notable pattern of change over the past five years. Figure
20 below shows how the proportion of associate professional and technical occupations
have increased nationally, but reduced in Bradford. Some occupations have changed
contrary to the national and LCR picture with sales and customer service, and
elementary occupations increasing in Bradford while the national figure decreased. A
number of other occupations including administrative, skilled trades, and process, plant
and machine operatives have seen a relative reduction over the past five years.
34
Figure 20: Standard occupations % change 2009-14
3.0
2.0
1.0
Bradford
0.0
LCR
England
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
Source: ONS
The local supply of skills
This section of the report analyses the local supply of skills of residents of LCR. It is
widely accepted that qualifications, acting as an imperfect proxy for skills, are a strong
predictor of labour market success: low skilled people are more likely to be
unemployed.
It considers a number of perspectives. Firstly it analyses overall qualifications levels in
the district, before examining them for both under 16s and adults to understand the
current levels of skills in the local labour market. Finally, it considers current levels of
the take-up of education and training opportunities including higher education, adult
education and apprenticeships.
Figure’s 21, 22 and 23 below demonstrate recent trends in qualifications and present a
largely positive picture. While on average below national levels, the proportion of the
economically active workforce gaining skills at different levels is increasing in Bradford,
as well as the wider LCR. Just over 24% of Bradford’s workforce are now qualified to
NVQ4 (degree) level or over above, up from 20% in 2006, while almost 62% are now
qualified to NVQ2 level (5 or more GCSEs at grades A-C), increased from 57% in 2006.
35
Adult – Economically active
Figure 21: % with NVQ4 and above 2006-13
35.0
33.0
31.0
29.0
27.0
Bradford
25.0
LCR
23.0
England
21.0
19.0
17.0
15.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source:
ONS
Figure 22: % with NVQ2 and above 2006-13
75.0
70.0
65.0
Bradford
LCR
60.0
England
55.0
50.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: ONS
At the same time – and again positively - the proportion of the workforce with no
qualifications has reduced in this period from 21% to approximately 15%.
36
Figure 23: % with no qualifications 2006-13
25.0
20.0
15.0
Bradford
LCR
10.0
England
5.0
0.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: ONS
Young people
The most recent statistics on GCSE performance levels also show a positive trend for
Bradford, with the proportion of local children at GCSE level showing a consistent year
on year increase in performance.
37
Figure 24: % 5+ A*- C Grades including English and Maths GCSE 2005-14
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
Bradford
30.0
England
20.0
10.0
0.0
Source: ONS
Education and Training
The most recent returns from the Data Service of the Skills Funding Agency there have
been a rise in the total number of learners in Bradford colleges since 2010/11. Levels of
enrolments, starts and achievements have all consistently risen over the past three
years, as demonstrated in Figure 25 below.
38
Figure 25: Enrolments, starts and achievements in further education in Bradford 20102013
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
2010 /
2011
2011 /
2012
Starts
2012 /
2013
2010 /
2011
2011 /
2012
Enrolments
2012 /
2013
2010 /
2011
2011 /
2012
2012 /
2013
Achievements
Source: SFA
While the numbers dipped in 2010, generally numbers of both youth and adult learners
have increased in recent years (Figure 26)
Figure 26: numbers of youth and adult starts in Bradford 2008-13
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
Youth
15000
Adult
10000
5000
0
2008 / 2009 2009 / 2010 2010 / 2011 2011 / 2012 2012 / 2013
Source: SFA
39
Tables 16 and 17 below shows the principle subjects taken in Bradford colleges and by
training providers in the last two years. High numbers in subjects such as Foundations
for Learning and Preparation for work, as well as health care, science and construction
are positive as they are subjects that policy makers are keen for young people to study
in order to make a positive contribution to the economy.
Table 16: principle under 19 starts in education and training by subject 2011-13
Bradford
2011/12
Foundations for Learning and Life
2012/13
10486
10471
Unknown
2945
3040
Preparation for Work
2947
2418
Not Applicable
1864
2073
Health and Social Care
1085
1547
Sport, Leisure and Recreation
1008
1009
Science
652
675
Service Enterprises
794
670
Building and Construction
628
655
Crafts, Creative Arts and Design
624
606
Languages, Literature and Culture of the British
Isles
714
599
ICT for Users
128
568
Hospitality and Catering
362
518
Mathematics and Statistics
546
485
Transportation Operations and Maintenance
368
452
Business Management
451
443
Source: SFA
40
For adult starts, Preparation for Life and Work accounted for a large proportion of the
total. Health and Social Care, Building and Construction and ICT for Users were also
popular.
Table 17: Principle 19+ starts in education and training by subject 2011-13
Bradford
2011/12
2012/13
Foundations for Learning and Life
9201
9704
Preparation for Life and Work
3532
4720
Preparation for Work
1925
3211
ICT for Users
2624
2842
Health and Social Care
1391
2674
Arts, Media and Publishing
1100
1386
Building and Construction
602
910
Service Enterprises
627
703
Hospitality and Catering
156
577
Business Management
644
559
Child Development and Well Being
572
551
Administration
235
533
Mathematics and Statistics
356
434
Sport, Leisure and Recreation
412
432
Crafts, Creative Arts and Design
246
383
Science
354
372
Languages, Literature and Culture of the British
Isles
392
358
Source: SFA
41
Apprenticeships in Bradford
The number of youth apprenticeship starts in Bradford has generally increased over the
past five years. As Figure 27 shows, it is particularly positive that increasing numbers of
apprenticeships at higher and advanced levels.
Figure 27: Apprenticeships starts by level 2008-13
6000
5000
4000
Advanced
3000
Higher
Intermediate
2000
1000
0
2008 / 2009 2009 / 2010 2010 / 2011 2011 / 2012 2012 / 2013
Source: SFA
When analysed by framework (or sector), a large proportion of all youth apprenticeship
starts in 2012/13 were in business administration (both intermediate and advanced
levels). This was the most popular framework and it confirms what the Apprenticeship
Vacancies Online System data reveals – that this framework/sector generated the most
vacancies and the most applications. Other popular sectors included hairdressing,
engineering, customer services and Children and Young People's Workforce
42
Table 18: Principle youth apprenticeship sectors, 2011-13
Bradford
2011/12
2012/13
Business and Administration - Intermediate Level
122
169
Children and Young People's Workforce - Intermediate Level
120
85
Customer Service - Intermediate Level
54
79
Hairdressing - Intermediate Level
76
72
Children and Young People's Workforce - Advanced Level
70
71
Engineering Manufacture Craft Technician - Advanced level
44
59
Vehicle Maintenance & Repair - Intermediate Level
37
43
Construction Building - Intermediate Level
41
37
Improving Operational Performance - Intermediate Level
28
37
Retail - Intermediate Level
53
32
Health and Social Care -
53
30
Business and Administration - Advanced Level
20
28
Electrotechnical - Advanced Level
32
26
Hairdressing - Advanced Level
37
25
IT, Software, Web & Telecoms Professional - Advanced Level
61
25
Accounting - Intermediate Level
15
24
Source: SFA Data Service
Adult apprenticeships on the other hand, were dominated by Health and Social Care.
Customer Service, Management, Business and Administration, and Children and
Young People’s Workforce were also popular.
43
Table 19: Principle adult apprenticeship sectors 2011-13
Bradford
2011/12
2012/13
Health and Social Care - Advanced Level
235
334
Health and Social Care -
292
311
Customer Service - Intermediate Level
262
303
Management - Advanced Level
149
257
Management - Intermediate Level
164
247
Improving Operational Performance - Intermediate Level
148
160
Business and Administration - Advanced Level
100
144
Business and Administration - Intermediate Level
90
142
Customer Service - Advanced Level
110
130
Children and Young People's Workforce - Advanced Level
110
127
Retail - Intermediate Level
292
127
Supporting Teaching and Learning in Schools - Advanced Level
77
104
Retail - Advanced Level
43
78
Hospitality and Catering - Intermediate Level
99
53
Contact Centre Operations - Intermediate Level
1
38
Hairdressing - Advanced Level
48
33
Health and Social Care - Advanced Level
235
334
Health and Social Care -
292
311
Source: SFA Data Cube
44
Higher Education
Data on higher education is generally held at the LCR, rather than district level.
Enrolment into universities in the LCR fell by 7% in the 2012/13 academic year to
116,400 students. In terms of subject areas, the biggest fall was in Education where
enrolment fell by more than 2,000 students. Business and Administrative Studies, Law,
Social Studies and subjects allied to Medicine also suffered falls. Biological Studies was
the only subject to record an increase in enrolment. Intake rose by more than 500
students, equivalent to a 5% increase on the previous year.
Table 20: Leeds City Region HE Enrolment 2011-13
Subject area
2011/12
2012/13
Absolute
Change
% Share
(2012/13)
Business & administrative
studies
17,863
16,665
-1,198
14%
Subjects allied to medicine
15,775
15,101
-674
13%
Social studies
12,293
11,655
-638
10%
9,695
10,210
515
9%
11,418
9,376
-2,041
8%
Creative arts & design
9,075
8,968
-107
8%
Languages
9,791
8,807
-984
8%
Engineering & technology
7,921
7,697
-224
7%
Historical & philosophical
studies
6,735
6,010
-725
5%
Physical sciences
5,635
5,216
-419
4%
Computer science
4,003
3,757
-246
3%
Law
3,587
3,106
-480
3%
Mass communications &
documentation
3,443
2,917
-526
3%
Medicine & dentistry
2,770
2,743
-27
2%
Biological sciences
Education
45
Architecture, building &
planning
2,526
2,161
-365
2%
Mathematical sciences
1,607
1,598
-9
1%
Agriculture & related subjects
306
230
-76
0%
Combined
476
192
-284
0%
116,409
-8,510
100%
Total
124,919
Source: HESA
The Destination of Leavers in Higher Education (DLHE) survey tracks students six
months after graduation. Only UK, full-time, 1st degree students are surveyed. The
latest data suggests that 68% of graduates who attended LCR universities had secured
employment six months after graduation. Of the total number of Higher Education
graduates from LCR universities, the proportion in employment ranged from 61% for
the University of York to 80% for Leeds Trinity University.
Table 21: Destination of leavers in the Leeds City Region
Institution
In
Employment*
Studying* Unemployed Other**
Leeds Trinity University
80%
6%
6%
7%
York St John University
74%
7%
5%
13%
Leeds College of Art
72%
17%
5%
6%
The University of Leeds
70%
14%
6%
10%
The University of
Huddersfield
69%
11%
5%
15%
The University of Bradford 66%
15%
11%
9%
Leeds Metropolitan
University
65%
20%
6%
9%
The University of York
61%
21%
4%
14%
Total
68%
15%
6%
11%
Source: HESA *- includes full and part-time; **includes (but not limited to) those
primarily working but also studying and those primarily studying but also working.
46
21% of University of York graduates surveyed had returned to studying six months
after completing their first degree, compared to only 6% for Leeds Trinity University
graduates. This is, in part, a reflection of the nature of degree being offered in these
institutions as some lend themselves more to further post graduate study than others.
Of those who had secured employment, 73% of the LCR cohort had secured
“professional” employment. This includes Managers, Directors and senior officials,
Professional occupations and Associate professional and technical occupations.
Bradford University led the way with 80% of their students in employment securing
professional jobs compared to 60% by Leeds College of Art students. Again this, at least
in part, reflects the nature of degrees offered by the institutions and the opportunities
available in the labour market.
Table 22: Profession of leavers securing employment in the LCR
Institution
NonProfessional Professional
Employment Employment
The University of Bradford
80%
20%
The University of
Huddersfield
76%
24%
The University of Leeds
74%
26%
The University of York
73%
27%
York St John University
69%
31%
Leeds Metropolitan
University
68%
32%
Leeds Trinity University
67%
33%
Leeds College of Art
60%
40%
Total
73%
27%
Source: HESA
47
Another way of analysing the data is to assess all graduates resident in LCR irrespective
of the university they attended – thus including those who graduated from universities
outside LCR. In all, there were 17,120 such graduates in this cohort. Of these, half
attended university in LCR and 43% studied outside Yorkshire and Humber entirely.
Table 23: Leeds City Region resident graduates in employment
LCR Resident Graduates in the
cohort
17,120
In employment
13,165
77%
Professional Employment
9,700
74%
Non-Professional employment
3,400
26%
Source: HESA
About 77% of the graduates (13,165) had secured employment within six months of
graduation. Of these 9,700 (74%) were in professional level employment broadly similar
to the previous year. Of those that had secured employment (13,165), 72% were
working in Yorkshire and Humber compared to 63% the previous year. Almost 7,000 of
the 2012/13 graduates (53%) had secured employment in West Yorkshire, compared to
45% in the 2011/12 cohort. This shows that the labour market for high level skills in
LCR has improved considerably since the recession.
Table 24: Occupations of LCR resident graduates in professional employment
Standard occupational classification
Total
%
Share
Teaching and educational professionals
2,033
21%
Health professionals
1,854
19%
Business and public service associate professionals
1,560
16%
Business, media and public service professionals
1,057
11%
Science, research, engineering and technology professionals
964
10%
Culture, media and sports occupations
640
7%
48
Health and social care associate professionals
625
6%
Corporate managers and directors
413
4%
Science, engineering and technology associate professionals
272
3%
Other managers and proprietors
244
3%
Protective service occupations
51
1%
Total
9,713
100%
Source: HESA
The table above shows that more than one in five of the LCR graduates in professional
employment in this cohort were employed as teaching and educational professionals.
Slightly less than that (19%) were health professionals and 16% were working as
business and public service associate professionals. Of those who were in no
professional employment (3,427) 23% were in sales occupations and another 19% were
in administrative occupations. A further 18% were employed in caring and personal
service occupations whiles 17% were working in elementary administration and service
occupations.
6. Conclusions and assessment of alignment
The final section of this review presents an analysis of the previous sections to establish
the extent of alignment between the supply of and demand for labour in Bradford and
the wider LCR economy. It also draws overall conclusions on the strengths and
weaknesses of the local labour market.
Overall conclusions
It is clear from this analysis that the local supply of labour, and particularly of skills, has
a number of strengths. The employment rate is increasing at a faster rate than
nationally, while unemployment is continuing to fall. Local earnings are among the
highest in the LCR, while the district has higher proportions of higher end occupation
groups who work in particular niche sectors.
At the same time, it shares many of the current national concerns of increasing selfemployment and part time work, as well as the hollowing out of middle level
occupations. The quality of work for many is likely to be an ongoing issue,
compounded by an above average increase in working age population in Bradford.
Positively, the proportion of the local resident workforce with higher skills is
continuing to increase, while the proportion with no qualifications is reducing, both in
line with national trends. The numbers of learners in Bradford colleges is increasing, as
49
is the number of apprenticeships. It is not all positive, however, Bradford generally lags
behind national levels across all skills levels.
Overall, however, the indications are that the district’s workforce is continuing to adapt
to the changing demands of the national and local economy which is positive.
When looking at the demand for skills, however, it is clear that there will continue to be
a range of evolving requirements from local employers. These provide a set of ongoing
challenges to those setting skills policies and designing provision.
These include some practical messages in terms of skills gaps and levels of
preparedness for work. They also include more structural issues in terms of helping to
ensure greater alignment between the demand for, and supply of skills. These are set
out below. There is also a question about whether local suppliers want to go with the
grain of current demand in the market or to supply skills to other sectors and in other
occupations.
Alignment and mismatch in skills demand the local economy and labour market
This section considers the extent of local alignment between the local supply of skills
and labour, compared to the demand from the local and City Region economies. It
considers current and future demand in terms of economic sectors, as well as
occupations, while also considers projected demand for skills themselves. It needs to be
remembered that it is not an exact science to match up supply and demand, however
some broad conclusions can be made that can inform local skills policy and provision.
Examples of alignment in key sectors
As set out in the policy section, the LCR SEP has identified a number of priority sectors
to support in future. The following section considers the extent of current local supply
and demand for a number of these. The general points made about the local economy
and labour market characteristics are relevant here, although there are a number of
specific points to make
Innovative manufacturing
Future projections suggest that manufacturing overall, both in the LCR and locally, will
see a continued increase in output, but a reduction in employment. Given that it is such
a significant industry for the LCR and locally, policy makers are keen to reverse this
trend if possible. Pursuing more innovative and advanced manufacturing to remain
competitive is key to this; although more advanced sectors can be less labour intensive.
50
The increasing skill levels in the local population is likely to be positive in this regard. It
may be of some concern, however, that there are relatively small numbers of both
higher education and further education and training in this area – although a number of
cross cutting subjects could help.
At the LCR level, only 7% of university enrolment in 2012/13 was in engineering and
other manufacturing related subjects. Among apprentices there were relatively small
numbers of take-up in engineering and other technical skills (less than 100), while these
skills saw relatively less demand in further education.
Occupations
The current projections for the LCR, as well as nationally, are for a continued hollowing
out of occupations. Both higher and lower level occupations are projected to increase,
while medium level occupations such as skilled occupations, administrative and
secretarial are likely to reduce. The trend in Bradford differs from this with higher level
occupations not consistently forecast to increase, and some lower level occupations
forecast to increase.
Some of the latter are occupations which were identified in the UKCES ESS as
occupations where employers feel there both current job vacancies and skills shortages.
There was also felt to be gaps in technical and practical skills
While all occupations may be felt useful to pursue, especially higher end occupations,
there is an identified challenge in producing both the jobs and occupations – and skills
to service these – in the middle of the labour market.
Skills
As noted, skills levels are increasing overall which is positive, although Bradford
generally lags behind national levels despite this. Future projections suggest that a
greater proportion of higher end qualifications are likely in future in order for the
economy to keep pace with national and international trends. Positively, this looks to be
the current direction of travel.
51