PRESIDENTIAL ’96 A CASE STUDY
In the election of 1996 President Bill Clinton, the Democratic nominee, won a
decisive victory over former Senator Bob Dole, his republican opponent, and Ross
Perot, the candidate of the Reform Party. Clinton carried thirty-two of the fifty states
and the District of Columbia, and won 379 electoral votes to 159 for Bob Dole.
Clinton’s victory marked the first time since 1936 that a Democratic president had
been reelected to a second full term. The results were:
Bill Clinton (D)
Bob Dole (R)
Ross Perot (RP)
Others
Popular
Vote1
Electoral
Vote
Popular
Vote
Percentage
45,628,667
37,869,435
7,874,283
1,435,025
379
159
0
0
49.2%
40.8%
8.5%
1.5%
_____________________
_______
___________
92,807,410
538
100.0%
The Democrats
As the 1986 presidential campaign approached, it was almost unanimously
assumed that President Clinton would, at age 50, seek reelection. But Clinton and his
Democratic supporters realized that three unknowns could have a powerful effect on
their party’s prospects.
First, how popular would the president and his administration be with the
voters in the summer and fall of 1996? The president and his party had suffered a
stunning defeat in the midterm election in November 1994, when the Republicans
captured majorities in both the House and the Senate for the first time in forty years.
But if Bill Clinton could rebound from that electoral disaster and attain high job
approval ratings by the time of the 1996 campaign, then a Clinton victory might be
possible. Otherwise, the 1996 contest for the presidency could result in another
humiliating defeat for the Democrats.
Second, would President Clinton face opposition from within his own party as
he sought re-nomination? If other Democrats entered the spring primaries, the
resulting battles could split the party and weaken its prospects in the general election.
Third, and perhaps most important of all, what would economic conditions be
like in the summer and fall of 1996? The economy had been generally healthy and
1
USA Today, November 8, 1996, p. 6A.
growing during the early years of the Clinton presidency. If economic expansion
continued in 1996, and inflation could be contained, the chances of a Democratic
victory would be much greater. But an economic downturn would make it difficult
for Clinton to persuade voters that they were better off than they had been four years
earlier.
Clinton had begun his presidency in January 1993 with the broad approval
that the American public usually gives a new president at the start of his first term.
After his first few days in office, the Gallup poll reported that 58 percent of the public
approved of the job he was doing as president, and only 20 percent disapproved. (See
Table 1.) Over the next nineteen months his popularity plummeted, however, so that
by September 1994—shortly after his major proposal for health-care reform
legislation had been rejected by Congress—only 39 percent of the public approved of
Clinton’s job performance; a full 54 percent disapproved. Two months later came the
Republican electoral landslide in the congressional elections of 1994.
The Democratic defeat that year was especially dramatic in the House of
Representatives, which the Democrats had controlled for forty consecutive years. No
other elected institution of the national government—not the presidency, not the
U.S. Senate—had ever been controlled that long by one party. Now the Republicans
and the new speaker of the House, the outspoken Newt Gingrich of Georgia, were
firmly in control.
Among Democrats, Clinton himself received much of the blame. During the
winter of 1994-1995 there was widespread speculation among politicians and in the
press that one or more prominent congressional Democrats might challenge Clinton
for the Democratic nomination in 1996. Public attention focused on the efforts of
Speaker Gingrich and the freshmen Republicans to push their ambitious and
conservative program, the Contract With America, through Congress. At one point
President Clinton even felt the need to remind journalists that he was still relevant:
“The Constitution gives me relevance, the power of our ideas gives me relevance.”2
Clinton also made key changes in his White House staff. In June 1994 he
announced that his lifelong friend Thomas F. (Mack) McLarty would be replaced as
the White House chief of staff by Leon E. Panetta, director of the Office of
Management and Budget and a former member of Congress from California. Panetta
had served in the House for sixteen years and—unlike McLarty—had broad
knowledge of the Washington political world.3 After Panetta took charge as chief of
staff appeared to improve. Clinton also brought in State Department spokesman
Michael McCurry to be his new White House press secretary, replacing Dee Dee
Myers.4 McCurry proved skillful in handling the daily White House press briefings
and in dealing with the news media.
2
Time, September 2, 1996, p. 33.
Facts on File, June 30, 1994, p. 457.
4
Facts on File, January 19, 1995, p. 31.
3
TABLE 1
President Clinton's Date of interviews
Job Rating,
1993-1996
Approve
Disapprove
No Opinion
Clinton Elected with 43% of the vote, November 1992
Clinton inaugurated, January 1993
January 24-26, 1993
58%
20%
22%
April 22-24, 1993
55
37
8
"Travelgate," "$200 haircut," several presidential nominations Difficulties with
Senate, Dave Gergen joins White House, May 1993
June 5-6, 1993
37
49
14
Sept. 13-15, 1993
46
43
11
Clinton announces health care proposal in speech to Congress, September
1993
Sept. 24-26, 1993
56
36
8
Nov. 19-21, 1993
48
43
9
Clinton's second State of the Union address, January 1994
January 28-30, 1994
58
35
7
April 22-24, 1994
48
44
8
Sept. 6-7, 1994
Health care reform dies, September 1994
39
54
7
Midterm elections--Republicans capture the House and Senate, November
1994
Dec. 28-30, 1994
40
52
8
Feb. 3-5, 1995
49
44
10
Midterm elections--Republicans capture the House and Senate, November
1994
April 21-24, 1995
51
39
10
Sept. 14-17, 1995
Nov. 17-18, 1995
January 5-7, 1995
44
53
42
44
38
49
12
9
9
Note: Responses were to the question: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill
Clinton is handling his jab as president?
Source: Data provided by the Gallup poll.
Slowly, the president’s job-approval ratings began to rise. When a federal
office building was bombed in Oklahoma City in April 1995, killing 169 people, the
nation was shocked and looked to Washington for reassurance. Clinton and the
CLINTON MOVES TO THE CENTER:
"Tonight I want to talk to you about what government can do, because I believe government must
do more."
--President Clinton, State of the Union Address, 1993
"The era of big government is over."
--President Clinton, State of the Union Address, 1993
federal government responded decisively to the tragedy. In the aftermath, Clinton’s
standing in the polls went up. Some of Clinton’s foreign-policy actions also seemed to
help his popularity. He also appeared to gain in popularity by taking more moderate
positions on a broad range of issues. The Democratic president was moving to “the
center.”
Much of the national political debate in 1995 focused on the attempts of
Republicans in Congress to pass their legislative program, and Clinton’s efforts to
block or modify the Republican proposals. During Clinton’s first two years in office,
when the Democrats controlled Congress, the president did not veto a single bill. In
Clinton’s second two years in office, with a Republican Congress, he exercised his
veto fifteen times.5
In December 1995, Republican leaders tried to force Clinton to approve their
budget bill by withholding funds to run the federal government agencies were closed
for days. It was a defining event in Clinton’s first term. The public appeared to blame
the president for the impasse; when the confrontation was over, the president’s jobapproval rating had increased to 52 percent in the Gallup poll taken at the end of
January. During the rest of the year, through the November election, President
Clinton’s job approval rating never dropped below 52 percent.
This surge in the president’s popularity had other effects on the 1996
campaign. Clinton was able to avoid a potentially divisive fight within his own party
for the nomination; he was the first incumbent Democrat president since Franklin
Roosevelt not to have a significant challenge for re-nomination. And by early 1996
Clinton had moved ahead of all his potential Republican opponents in the polls. It
was a lead that the president never relinquished.
The Democratic National Convention opened in Chicago on August 26.
Speakers praised Clinton’s first term and assailed the GOP-controlled Congress. The
Democrats experienced an embarrassing setback, however, on the final days of the
convention. Clinton’s top campaign strategist, Dick Morris, abruptly resigned in the
wake of a tabloid’s allegations that he had been seeing a $200-an-hour call girl and
had let her listen in on his private conversations with the president.
5
Time, September 2, 1996, p. 32.
On August 28, as the delegates cheered and stomped, Clinton was formally renominated by the convention. The next day, he accepted his nomination to chants of
“four more years” and promised that his administration and the Democratic party
would “build a bridge to the twenty-first century.”
The Republicans
Early in 1995 the Republican Party was in an enviable position. Republicans
had just won control of both the House and the Senate and their Contract With
America dominated the congressional agenda. In the confident view of many
Republican leaders, the question was not whether they would have a chance of
winning the 1996 presidential election, but rather, which Republican would become
the next president of the United States?
As Clinton’s job-approval ratings slowly
began to rise, however, a number of prominent
Republicans indicated that they would not seek
the nomination. These included former Vice
President Dan Quayle, former Representative
Jack Kemp, the speaker of the House, Newt
Gingrich, and the governor of Massachusetts,
William Weld. That fall, there was a great deal of
political speculation over a possible presidential
candidacy by General Colin L. Powell. A highly
respected, retired chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff and hero of the Persian Gulf War, Powell,
the son of Jamaican immigrants, created more
excitement than any other possible Republican
candidate. And there were signs that Powell
might have the best chance of defeating
President Clinton in 1996; a CNN poll in the
early fall of 1995 showed Powell ahead of
Clinton, 46 percent to 38 percent.6 Yet no one
knew for sure whether Powell was a Republican.
On November 8, 1995 Colin Powell answered the question: He announced that he
was a Republican but that he would not seek the party’s presidential nomination in
1996. President Clinton and the Republican presidential contenders gave a collective
sigh of relief.
6
Newsweek, Special Election Issue, November 18, 1996, p. 45.
The retired general did not rule out a presidential bid in another year—as
Powell himself said, “The future is the future.”7 But even without Powell in the
picture, the list of candidates was a long one. On April 10, 1995, from the steps of the
State Capitol in Topeka, Kansas, Bob Dole, the Senate majority leader, officially
entered the race for the Republican nomination. In time, a total of ten candidates
competed for the prize: Dole; former governor Lamar Alexander of Tennessee;
conservative columnist and former Nixon and Reagan administration official Pat
Buchanan; Steve Forbes, heir to a publishing empire; Senator Phil Gramm of Texas;
California Governor Pete Wilson; Senator Richard Lugar of Indiana; Senator Arlen
Specter of Pennsylvania; Representative Robert Dornan of California; Alan Keyes, a
black conservative radio talk-show host who had never held elective office; and
Illinois businessman Morry Taylor. Wilson withdrew from the race in September,
saying that he lacked campaign funds. Specter ended his campaign in November.
Although Dole had failed to capture the Republican nomination in 1980 and in
1988, in 1996 he appeared to be the early front-runner. However, Dole was
surprisingly slow out of the gate in the Iowa caucuses on February 12. Dole barely
edged out Pat Buchanan, 26 percent to 23 percent. It was clear that Dole would have
to battle for the nomination.8 Gramm, who finished fifth in Iowa with only 9 percent
of the vote, dropped out of the race on February 14.9
The first Republican primary in New Hampshire took place on February 20.
Over the years, the state had proved to be a key battleground in presidential
primaries. Since 1948, through twelve presidential elections, eleven candidates have
won in New Hampshire and gone on to the White House. President Clinton was the
sole exception, finishing second there in 1992.10
The 1996 contest was regarded as one of the most negative campaigns in New
Hampshire history—candidates spent less time shaking hands and talking with the
voters than they did attacking on another through television ads and sound bites on
the evening news. When the votes were counted, Buchanan shocked Republicans
across the country by beating the party’s front-runner, Dole. The final tally:
Buchanan 27 percent, Dole 26 percent, Alexander 23 percent, and Forbes 12 percent.
The result prompted Dole to portray himself as a centrist candidate in contrast to the
more conservative Buchanan. Dole told his fellow Republicans: “It’s a two-man race
from now on, and we know we’re now engaged in a fight for the heart and soul of the
Republican Party.”11
The Forbes effort appeared doomed after two straight fourth-place finishes in
Iowa and New Hampshire. How the primary campaigns moved south for an all7
New York Times, November 9, 1995, p. A1.
Washington Post, February 13, 1996, p. A1.
9
Washington Post, February 14, 1996, p. A1.
10
www.allpolitics.com, February 20, 1996.
11
Washington Post, February 21, 1996.
8
important clash on March 2 between Dole and Buchanan in South Carolina, a
conservative state that seemed ripe for another Buchanan victory. Dole, however,
regained front-runner status there with a big victory, garnering 45 percent of the vote
to Buchanan’s 29 percent.12 On March 5, Dole won all of the day’s eight primaries.
Then it was the turn of both Alexander and Lugar to bow out of the race.
On March 12, Super Tuesday, Dole swept all seven of the key primaries and
urged Buchanan and Forbes to support his inevitable nomination. “Our focus should
be on Bill Clinton, not Bob Dole or each other,” the Kansas senator declared.13 When
Dole won California on March 26 his delegate total surpassed the 996 needed to win
the nomination. After sixteen years of trying, Dole declared that, finally, he would be
the Republican nominee for president.
With Dole assured of the nomination, he was able to concentrate on the
coming campaign battle against President Clinton. But the opinion polls did not bode
well for the older man from Kansas; they showed Dole tailing Clinton by a sizeable
seventeen points. The unfavorable poll data prompted Dole to announce on May 15
that he would resign from the Senate. Dole’s resignation was a dramatic gesture that
he hoped would focus attention on his candidacy and allow him more time to
campaign. However, the polls did not respond the way that Dole hoped.
During June and July, Dole continued to lag behind Clinton—often by as
much as 15 percentage points—in most national polls. Dole also celebrated his
seventy-third birthday in July, prompting questions about whether he was too old to
12
13
www.allpolitics.com, March 2, 1996.
www.allpolitics.com, March 12, 1996.
be president; polls showed that 32 percent of respondents thought that he was. On
August 5, Dole sought to regain the initiative by unveiling his long-awaited economic
stimulus plan. His proposal, which he hoped would be the centerpiece of his
campaign, was a 15 percent across-the-board income tax cut. He also promised to
reform the Internal Revenue Service.
As the Republican National Convention approached, speculation mounted
about who would be Dole’s vice presidential running-mate. On August 10 Dole
announced his choice: Jack Kemp, a former member of Congress from New York,
former secretary of Housing and Urban Development, and a onetime professional
football player for the Buffalo Bills. In view of their past sparring matches over
economic policy, the choice was surprising; Dole had always advocated deficit
reduction rather than tax cuts, while Kemp championed tax cuts as a part of “supplyside” economics. But Dole’s choice of Kemp as his running mate was well received
both by the public and by Republican activists.
On August 12 the Republican National Convention opened in San Diego. In
contrast to the Republican convention in Houston four years earlier, there was very
little conflict over the policies and direction of the Republican Party. Instead there
were four days of made-for-TV programming, with speeches delivered by Colin
Powell, Representative Susan Molinari of New York, and Elizabeth Dole, the
candidate’s wife. The convention nominated the former senator from Russell, Kansas,
on August 14.
TABLE 2
Voter Support for
Clinton, Dole, and
Perot: The Gallup
Poll's Three-way
Trial Heats between
February 1995 and
Election Eve, 1996
Date of interviews
For Clinton
For Dole
For Perot
February 3-5, 1995
April 17-19, 1995
August 4-7, 1995
45%
40
39
51%
37
35
-18
23
Government shutdown ends, January 6
January 12-15, 1996
43
39
16
Clinton's fourth State of the Union address, January 23
January 26-29, 1996*
54
42
-March 8-10, 1996
47
34
17
Dole clinches Republican nomination, March
April 9-10, 1996
49
35
July 25-28, 1996
50
35
15
10
Republican Convention, August 12-15
August 16-18, 1996
48
41
7
Democratic Convention, August 26-29
Sept. 9-11, 1996
55
34
5
October 3-4, 1996
51
39
5
October 5-6, 1996
55
35
5
Presidential and vice-presidential debates, October 6-16
October 17-18, 1996
55
32
8
October 20-21, 1996
October 30-31, 1996
Final Poll
54
52
52
35
34
41
6
10
7
Election Results
49
41
8
*Perot's name not included in poll questions
Source: Data provided by the Gallup poll.
Although Buchanan was not allowed to speak at the 1996 convention, he
finally endorsed Dole. On the last day of the convention, Dole accepted the GOP
nomination and offered himself to the nation as a man “tested by adversity, made
sensitive by hardship, a fighter by principle, and the most optimistic man in
America.”14 The convention was generally considered to be a success for the
Republicans, and Clinton’s lead over Dole narrowed. (See Table 2.)
Ross Perot’s Reform Party, and Ralph Nader
As Clinton and Dole prepared to do battle in 1996, the Texas billionaire Ross Perot
entered the fray once more. Despite his off-again, on-again presidential bid four years
earlier, Perot had polled 19 percent of the vote in 1992—the best showing by a thirdparty candidate since Theodore Roosevelt ran on the Bull Moose ticket in 1912. In
1996, Perot, the founder of the Dallas-based Electronic Data Systems Corporation,
built his own political party, the Reform Party. He energized some 1.3 million voters,
all the while insisting that the effort “isn’t about me.”15 But as soon as the former
governor of Colorado, Richard Lamm, declared that he would seek the Reform Party
nomination, Perot announced that he, too, would run. On August 17, Perot easily
won his party’s nomination by a margin of two to one.”16
One other minor-party candidate received a fair amount of media attention—
Ralph Nader of the Green Party. In the spring of 1996, polls showed that about 5
percent of the public said that they would vote for Nader, a well-known consumer
advocate. Many Democratic political leaders initially worried about the Nader
14
www.allpolitics.com, March 15, 1996.
www.allpolitics.com, March 15, 1996.
16
www.allpolitics.com, March 17, 1996.
15
candidacy, because they feared that most of his support would come from Democratic
voters who would otherwise vote for Bill Clinton.
The General Election Campaign
Both the Democrats and the Republicans appeared to gain a surge in popular support
from their national conventions. After the Democratic, a new Gallup poll reported
that President Clinton and his running-mate, Vice President Al Gore, held at 55
percent to 34 percent advantage over Dole and Kemp going into the final two months
of the campaign.
As the last phase of the campaign got under way, it was clear that Clinton was
continuing to benefit from good news about the American economy. (See Table 3.) In
many voters’ minds, however, there were continuing questions about the Whitewater
affair and the controversy over Clinton’s business dealings in the 1990s in Arkansas.
TABLE 3
Annual Rates of
Inflation and
Unemployment in
the United States,
1980-1996
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Inflation
13.5%
10.4
6.1
3.2
4.3
3.6
1.9
3.6
4.4
4.6
5.4
4.2
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.8
Unemployment
7.1%
7.6
9.7
9.6
7.4
7.1
6.9
6.1
5.5
5.3
5.6
6.8
7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6
1996
3.0
5.4
*1996 figures are annualized for the first seven months of the year.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES, 1996
Clinton: We have reduced the size of the
federal government to is smallest size in 30
years. . . . Our government is smaller and less
bureaucratic and has given more authority to
the states than its two predecessors under
Republican presidents, but I do believe we
have to help our people get ready to succeed
in the 21st century.
Dole: I think the basic difference is--and I've
had some experience in this--. . . . I trust the
people. The president trusts the government. .
. . I guess I rely more on the individual. I carry
a little card around in my pocket called the
10th Amendment. Where possible, I want to
give power back to the states and back to the
people.
Clinton: With this risky $550 billion tax
scheme of Senator Dole's, even with his own
friends, his campaign co-chair, Senator
D'Amato, says that they can't possibly pay for
it without cutting Medicare more and cutting
Social Security as well. . . . Now, my balanced
budget plan adds 10 years to the life of the
Medicare trust fund, 10 years. And we'll have
time to deal with the long term problems of
the baby-boomers
Dole: I used to go home, and my mother
would tell me. . . . "Bob, all I've got's my Social
Security and my Medicare. Don't cut it." I
wouldn't violate anything my mother said. . . .
I am concerned about health care. I've had the
best health care in government hospitals,
Army hospitals, and I know its importance.
But we've got to fix it. . . . Stop scaring the
seniors, Mr. President. You've already spent
$45 million scaring seniors and tearing me
apart. I think it's time to have a truce.
Clinton: You know, this 'liberal' charge, that's
what their party always drags out when they
get in a tight race. It's sort of their 'golden
oldie,' you know. It's a record they think they
can just play that everybody loves to hear.
And I just don't think that dog will hunt this
time. . . . The American people can make up
their own mind about whether that's a liberal
record or a record that's good for America-liberal, conservative--you put whatever label
you want on it.
Dole: Well, I think it’s pretty liberal. I'll put
that label on it. I mean, you take a look at all
the programs you've advocated, Mr.
President--thank goodness we had a
Republican Congress there. . . . I've just
finished reading a book. . . . About all the
liberal influences in the administration,
whether it's the Hollywood elite, or whether
it's some of the media elite, or whether it's the
labor unions, or whatever.
--Excerpts from the first televised debate between
Bill Clinton and Bob Dole, October 6, 1996
There were questions as well about alleged improprieties in the Clinton
administration. Nevertheless, the main drama during September centered around
plans for the upcoming televised presidential and vice-presidential debates.
On September 10, Ross Perot selected the author and economist, Pat Choate,
as his vice-presidential running-mate. A week later, however, the bipartisan
Commission on Presidential Debates decided to exclude Perot and Choate from the
televised debates, on the grounds that only Clinton and Dole had a realistic chance of
THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES, 1996
Clinton: The question of what the federal
Dole: The president, in the election year,
government should do to limit the access to decided , "Well, I ought to do something. I
tobacco to young people is one of the biggest haven't done anything on drugs. I've been
differences between Senator Dole and me. . . . AWOL for 44 months. So let's take on
We started. . . .to look into whether cigarette smoking." But see, they haven't even done it.
companies to advertise, market and distribute They haven't said what's going to happen,
tobacco products to our kids. No president had whether they're going to have it declared
ever taken on the tobacco lobby before. I did. . addictive. . . . Once it's a drug, does it apply
. . On drugs, I have repeatedly said drugs were only to teenagers or to everybody in America?
wrong and illegal and can kill you.
Nobody should smoke, young or old. But,
particularly, young people should not smoke.
And my record is there. It's been there. I've
voted eight times, 10 times since 1965.
Clinton: I am against quotas. I'm against giving Dole: Well, we may not be there yet, but
anybody any kind of preference for something we're not going to get there by giving
they're not qualified for. But because I still
preferences and quotas. . . . It ought to be not
believe that there is some discrimination and based on gender or ethnicity or color or
that not everybody has an opportunity to
disability. I'm disabled. I shouldn't have a
prove
preference. I would like to have one in this
race, come to think of it. But I don't get one. . .
. This is America. No discrimination.
Discrimination ought to be punished, but
there ought to be equal opportunity.
Clinton: I hope we can talk about what we're Dole: When you have thirty-some in your
going to do in the future. No attack ever
administration or in jail or whatever, then
created a job or educated a child or helped a you've got an ethical problem. It's public
family make ends meet. No insult ever cleaned ethics--not talking about private, we're talking
up a toxic-waste dump or helped an elderly
about public ethics--when you have 900 [FBI]
person.
files gathered up by some guy who was a
bouncer in a bar and hired as a security officer
to collect files.
--Excerpts from the second televised debate between
Bill Clinton and Bob Dole, October 16, 1996
winning the election. Perot filed a federal lawsuit against the debates commission, but
one week later the court ruled against him.
The Clinton and Dole campaigns agreed to schedule two presidential debates,
without Perot, on October 6 and October 16, and one vice-presidential debate on
October 9. Millions of Americans watched the debates, although the audiences were
smaller than they had been four years earlier. In their first debate, in Hartford,
Connecticut, Clinton and Dole sparred over the economy, education, Medicare, and
tax cuts. Dole accused Clinton of being “a liberal,” but Clinton retorted, “That’s what
their party always drags out when they get in a tight race.”17 Polls indicated that
viewers preferred Clinton’s performance—51 percent thought that Clinton had “won”
the debate, compared with 32 percent who said that Dole had won.18
In another relatively low-key debate on October 9, the vice-presidential
candidates, Gore and Kemp, faced off. Once again the Democrats scored a debate
victory. Polls showed that the voters thought that Gore had “won” the debate, 57
percent to 28 percent.19
The days leading into the final presidential debate brought good news and bad
news for the Democratic camp. On October 13, the Dow Jones stock market index
broke the 6,000 barrier, an event that the Democratic party seized upon as another
sigh that the economy was doing well. But the Clinton administration’s moments of
success often seemed to be followed by troubles, and this time difficulty involved
campaign finance. The Republicans began to attack Clinton and the Democrats for
accepting contribution of $485,000 to the Democratic National Committee from the
members of an Indonesian banking family and for taking other contributions from
foreign sources.
The final presidential debate took place on October 16 in San Diego,
California; and this time Dole sharply attacked Clinton over what he said were the
administration’s ethical problems and “scandals.” For the most part Clinton ignored
his rival’s attacks. Once again, he led in the post-debate polls, 59 percent to 29
percent.20 Dole had been counting on the debates to enable him to catch up with
Clinton. But the debates had failed to narrow the gap.
There were now just nineteen days left before Election Day. On October 23,
Dole sent his campaign manager to Dallas to ask Ross Perot to drop his presidential
bid and endorse the GOP ticket. However, Perot declared that he was in the race to
the finish.
17
USA Today, October 7, 1996, p. A13.
USA Today, October 7, 1996, p. A1.
19
www.allpolitics.com, October 9, 1996.
20
USAToday, October 17, 1996, p. A1.
18
In the final days of the campaign, Clinton urged people to turn out and vote.
He also made campaign stops that he hoped would benefit Democratic congressional
candidates. Dole launched a dramatic last-minute push to mobilize support—a 17stop, 96-hour sprint during which he campaigned almost around the clock. Perot’s
campaign finale, on election eve, consisted of four 30-minute “infomercials” in which
he sharply attacked the Clinton presidency. Perot suggested that Clinton, if reelected,
would spend much of his second term answering charges of corruption and scandal in
his administration.
The final polls indicated that there had been some narrowing of Clinton’s lead.
But all of the major national polls still had Clinton ahead.
On Election Day, it was sunny or partly sunny over much of the nation, with
high temperatures that reached into the 60s as far north as Nebraska, Illinois, Ohio,
and Maryland. There were showers, however, in the states around the Great Lakes.
Despite the generally favorable weather, the turnout was low. For the first time in
seventy-two years, there were more nonvoters than voters in a presidential election.
When the votes were counted, Clinton had won by a margin of 8.4 percentage
points over Dole and by more than 7.75 million popular votes.
Several noteworthy features marked the voting patterns of 1996:
1. About 9538 million voters went to the polls. The number of people who
voted was down by more than eight million from 1992, and the turnout—
about 48.8 percent—was the nation’s lowest since 1924.21
2. President Clinton’s share of the total popular vote—49.2 percent—was
substantially higher than the 43 percent that he received in 1992. But he
remained one of eleven American presidents to be elected with less than
50 percent of the vote. He was also one of only three presidents to win two
terms while receiving less than half the vote each time. The other two
21
USA Today, November 7, 1996, p. A3.
THE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE, 1996
Gore: We are seeking to have vigorous
Kemp: Affirmative action should be
enforcement of the laws that bar
predicated upon need, not equality of reward,
discrimination. Now, I want to congratulate not equality of outcome. Quotas have always
Mr. Kemp for being a lonely voice in the
been against the American ideal. We should
Republican Party over the years on this
promote diversity, and we should do it the
question. It is with some sadness that I refer to way Bob Dole has been talking about, with a
the fact that the day after he joined Senator
new civil rights agenda based upon expanding
Dole's tickets, he announced that he was
access to credit and capital, job opportunities,
changing his position and was here--thereafter educational choice in our cities . . . and
going to adopt Senator Dole's position to end ultimately a type of ownership and
all affirmative action. That's not good for our entrepreneurship.
country.
Gore: The plan from Senator Dole and Mr.
Kemp: A $550 billion tax cut. . . . Has to be
Kemp is a risky, $550 billion tax scheme that viewed against the context of a $50 trillion
actually raises taxes on 9 million of the hardest U.S. economy output of goods and services
working families. . . . Again, Mr. Kemp
over the next six years. A $550 billion tax cut
opposed that and called it unconscionable.
in a $50 trillion economy over six years if 1.5
Now it is part of the plan that he is supporting. percent, and the only hole it would blow is a
Not only that, though, is would blow a hole in hole in the plans of the administration to try
the deficit. . . . I would also lead to much
to tinker with the tax code and defend the
deeper cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, education, indefensible. I would blow up the
and the environment.
bureaucracy, but it would expand the
economy. That's important for America.
Gore: The platform on which Mr. Kemp and
Senator Dole are running pledges a
constitutional amendment to take away a
woman's right to choose, and to have the
government come in and order that woman to
do what the government says no matter what
the circumstances. . . . We will never allow a
woman's right to choose be taken away.
Kemp: There is no consensus. A constitutional
amendment would not pass. We must use
persuasion, not intimidation. And Bob Dole
and Jack Kemp will try to remind the
American people of what a tremendous asset
our children are and why there should be
protection for innocent human life, including
that of the unborn.
Gore: [Dole and house speaker Newt
Gincrich]. . . . Invited the lobbyists for the
biggest polluters in America to come into the
Congress and literally rewrite the Clean Was
Act and the Clean Air Act. President Clinton
stopped them dead in their tracks. . . . We've
already cleaned up more [toxic waste sites] in
the last three years than the previous two
administrations.
Kemp: The only thing [Clinton and Gore]. . . .
Have to offer is fear: fear of the environment,
fear of children, fear of Medicare, fear of
Newt, fear of Republicans, fear of Bob. . . . We
recognize that this country has to live in
balance with our environment. . . . To call a
businessman of woman. . . . Who has a chance
to express his or her interest in how to make
these laws work, and call them a polluter, is
just outrageous.
--Excerpts from the first televised debate
Al GoreJack Kemp debate, October 9, 1996
3. presidents who won two terms without polling 50 percent of the vote were
Grover Cleveland and Woodrow Wilson.
4. Perot’s 8.5 percent (7.9 million votes) was the fifth largest percentage
received by a minor-party or independent candidate in the twentieth
century. Only Theodore Roosevelt, Robert La Folette, George Wallace, and
Perot himself in 1992 had won a larger share of the vote. But at 8.5
percent, Perot’s 1996 vote was far less than the 19.7 million votes (19
percent) that he received in 1992.
5. Perhaps the most striking feature of the 1996 election was the “gender
gap”—the tendency of women and men to vote differently in the
presidential race. Among male voters, Clinton and Dole polled an equal
share of the vote—there was no lead at all for Clinton. Among women
who voted, however, the president led Dole by sixteen percentage points.
(See Table 4.) If all the voters had voted the way that American women
cast their ballots in 1996, Clinton would probably have won the election
by close to 15 million votes, instead of 7.75 million.
6. The state of the economy was strongly reflected in the returns. One third
of the voters (33 percent) reported that their family’s financial situation
was better in 1996 than it had been in 1992. Among that large group of
voters, Clinton led Dole by 67 percent to 26 percent. There was a smaller
group of voters (20 percent), however, who said that their family’s
financial situation was worse in 1996 than in 1992. Those voters opted for
Dole over Clinton, 57 percent to 28 percent. (See Table 4.)
7. The Clinton tide ran strongly in the East, Midwest, and West. However,
there were important centers of Dole strength in four areas—most of the
Southeast, Indiana, a string of six states in the center of the country
running from Texas to the Canadian border, and five of the eight Rocky
Mountain states.
8. Based on unofficial returns, by the narrowest of margins—about 9.400
votes out of more than 24 million votes cast—the Democrats’ all-southern
ticket of Clinton and Gore apparently won the popular vote in the South. It
was the first time since 1976, when the Democratic nominated Jimmy
Carter of Georgia for president, that the Democrats had help their own or
ran ahead in the popular vote in the South. It also enabled the Democrats
to carry four states—Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, and Tennessee—of the
former Confederacy.
9. Nevertheless, the South remained a very important regional base for the
Republican Party in presidential voting. In the eleven states of the former
Confederacy, Dole won a solid majority of the electoral votes and, as noted,
ran almost even with Clinton in the popular vote—46 percent to 46
percent. In the rest of the country, Clinton led Dole by a sizable margin—
50.2 percent to 38.6 percent.
10. In the presidential race, the most Democratic region was the Northeast,
where Clinton outpolled Dole by 56 percent to 35 percent. In the Midwest
the outcome was closer. There, Clinton ran ahead of Dole 48 percent to 41
percent.22
11. Next to the Northeast, the Democrats’ most solid regional stronghold was
the group of Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington
with their seventy-two electoral votes. In the section of the country,
Clinton led Dole by a decisive margin, 53 percent to 39 percent.
12. In the Rocky Mountain states, a region Ronald Reagan carried most of the
states by landslide margins in the 1980s, Dole ran ahead of Clinton in
1996—by 47 percent to 43 percent. Perot, who in 1992 had polled nearly
TABLE 4
Who Voted in 1996
All (100%)
Clinton
Dole
Perot
50%
42%
8%
10
Men (48)
44
44
Women (52)
54
38
7
Whites (83)
44
45
9
Blacks (10)
84
12
4
Hispanics (5)
73
20
5
Didn't complete high school (6)
60
28
11
High school grad (23)
52
35
13
Some college (27)
49
39
10
College grad (26)
44
46
7
Postgrad (17)
Age
52
39
5
18-29 (17)
53
34
10
30-44 (33)
49
41
9
45-59 (26)
49
49
9
60 and up (26)
49
43
7
Family Income*:
Less than $15,000 (14)
22
60
27
11
$15,000-29,999 (11)
54
36
9
$30,000-49,999 (27)
49
40
10
$50,000-74,999 (21)
47
44
7
$75,000 or more (18)
42
50
7
Protestants (55)
43
47
9
Catholics (29)
54
37
9
The Midwest includes the five Great Lakes states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, and
Wisconsin, the Prairie states of Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota, along with
Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri.
TABLE 4 (continued)
Who Voted in 1996
Jews (3)
78
16
3
Better (33)
67
26
6
Worse (20)
28
57
13
Family financial situation
compared with 1988:
46
44
8
Democrats (40)
About the same (44)
84
10
5
Republicans (34)
13
80
6
Independents (26)
43
35
17
Liberals (20)
78
11
7
Moderates (47)
57
32
9
Conservatives (33)
20
71
8
Clinton (44)
85
9
4
Bush (34)
13
82
4
Perot (12)
22
44
32
1992 votes:
First-time voters (9)
54
34
11
Union households (24)
60
29
9
Nonunion households (76)
46
44
8
Religious Right (16)
26
65
8
Source: Voter News Service exit polls for 1996 in National Journal, November 9,
1996, p. 2407.
one vote in every four in the area (24.5 percent) saw his total drop to 9.6
percent. Nevertheless, among the eight states in the Rocky Mountain
region Clinton was the winner in three—New Mexico, Nevada, and
Arizona. No Democrat had carried Arizona since Harry Truman won there
in 1948.
13. As in 1992, Clinton ran well among some traditionally Democratic groups
among which Reagan had made heavy inroads in the 1980s. Among
members of union households, Clinton led 60 percent to 29 percent. Exit
polls also showed that Clinton did well among two groups that had
remained Democratic in the 1980s and in 1992: Clinton was backed by 84
percent of black voters and by 78 percent of Jewish voters. (See Table 4.)
14. Hispanic Americans, who voted 62 percent to 24 percent for Clinton in
1992, were even more pro-Clinton four years later as they backed Clinton
over Dole by more than three to one—73 percent to 20 percent. Hispanic
Americans were also one of the few major groups in the United States
whose voting turnout increased in 1996. Close to five million Hispanic
Americans went to the polls in 1996 (compared with four million in 1992);
and voting shifts toward Clinton in Hispanic American neighborhoods
were a key factor in President Clinton’s victories in Florida and Arizona.23
15. The eleven contests for governor in 1996 left Republican governors in
power in most states and the balance between the parties unchanged.
Republicans continued to control thirty-two governorships, and the
Democrats controlled seventeen. (One governor in 1996 was an
independent.)
16. Despite the Democratic presidential victory for Bill Clinton, the
Republicans won the important battle for control of the House of
Representatives. The Democrats made a modest net gain of seats to bring
the House membership to 206 Democratic and 226 Republicans, with two
House contests still to be decided. In addition, there was one independent
member of Congress from Vermont. The Republicans’ overall majority in
the House was the narrowest by wither party since 1954.
17. In the Senate, the Republicans gained two seats, increasing their margin of
control. The new Senate had fifty-five Republicans and forty-five
Democrats. The election left new Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott of
Mississippi, former Senator Dole’s successor, with the largest Republican
Senate majority since 1929.
18. The 1996 elections also left the Republicans and Democrats with an equal
number of seats to defend in the next battle for control of the Senate—the
midterm congressional elections of 1998. Thirty-four Senate seats were to
be filled in the midterm elections of 1998. Of these seventeen by
Democrats.24
19. Perhaps the most important point of all about the 1996 election was that
for two years, at least, there would continue to be divided government in
Washington. The Democratic Party was in control of the presidency; the
Republicans controlled both houses of Congress. How the Democratic
president and the Republican congressional leaders shared their power
would go a long way toward determining how their parties would fare in
future elections. It would also shape the quality and the effectiveness of the
government that the American people had elected.
23
24
New York Times, November 10, 1996, p. 1, 27.
National Journal, November 9, 1996, p. 2438.