Mesoamerica
Food Security Update
30 June 2006
Most of the Regional Continues to Receive Heavy Rains
WATER REQUIREMENT SATISFACTION INDEX:
CONDITION OF MAIZE CROP, AS OF 30 JUNE 2006
Heavy rains across much of the region continued in June. The southern highlands
of Guatemala, including areas affected by tropical storm Stan last year, were
exceptionally wet in June and experienced localized flooding, landslides and crop
damage. Additional rainfall will cause further localized problems. Heavy rains
along the Caribbean Coastal areas of Belize, Honduras and Nicaragua could cause
localized flooding, although widespread flooding is not expected.
The USGS Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) is a model that uses
satellite and ground data to estimate the current condition of the maize crop, based
primarily on crop requirements at different stages of the season, and actual
hydrological conditions. At the end of June 2006, this analysis shows that the
maize crop is in good to very good condition in most parts of Central America.
While the model only considers maize, this is generally a good proxy for other
cereals being grown. While the WRSI generally captures the effect on crops of
low rainfall, it does not capture the impact of heavy rains and saturated soils.
Heavy rains continue with a
threat of localized flooding
Condition of
Maize Crop as of
30 June 2006
N/A
Failed
Poor
Fair
Average
Good
Very Good
Heavy rains continue
causing localized flooding,
landslides and crop damage.
Dry conditions may
affect emerging crops
SOURCE: WRSI from USGS/FEWS NET. Climate threats
from NOAA/FEWS NET. July 2006
Cereal Balance Analysis – Understanding Food Requirements and Food Availability
One of the important determinates of food security is the availability of adequate food supplies to meet requirements. Looking at
national food balance provides an indication of whether supplies are adequate or whether there could be crucial food shortages within
a country. Using data from FAO Food Balance Sheets (http://faostat.fao.org/faostat) for the years 1999-2003, provides a consistent set
of data across countries, allowing for national level analysis and regional comparisons. All FAO data originate from national
governments, and usually reflect official figures. The analysis shows the importance of maintaining accurate and up-to-date data to
enable meaningful food security and early warning analysis and reporting.
The Importance of Cereal in the Diet
Determining national food requirements starts with the individual and nutritional requirements to maintain a healthy and active life.
While good nutrition requires adequate amounts of protein, fats, vitamins and micro-nutrients, food balance is typically analyzed in
terms of caloric intake. Figure x shows average food consumption patterns of individuals in selected countries. In these countries,
cereals provide approximately half of caloric requirements, showing their importance as a food source and for food security in Central
America. A closer look at the types of cereals consumed highlights the importance of maize in local diets, which provide on average
between 21 percent (Nicaragua) and 40 percent (Guatemala) of total caloric intake. In Nicaragua sorghum and beans contribute more
to local diets than in other countries. More diversified diets may help mitigate the possible impact of some food security shocks. For
example, sorghum is typically more tolerant to below-normal rains than is maize. In Guatemala, patterns of high overall cereal
consumption and low meat consumption are consistent with the high poverty levels. Poor people tend to eat a less varied diet with
more cereal.
These average consumption patterns obviously mask variation in different parts of a country, between urban and rural areas and
according to income levels. In urban areas, wheat and rice are typically also important sources of caloric intake. In Nicaragua, a
recent study will provide updated data on average consumption patterns.
FIGURE X: FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA, PERCENT CALORIC INTAKE, 2003
El Salvador
Sweeteners
& Sugar
13%
Animal
Products 13%
Cereal
51%
Other 12%
Vegetable
Oils 6% Beans 5%
Guatemala
Maize
32%
Wheat 9%
Sorghum 5%
Rice 4%
Sweeteners
& Sugar
15%
Animal
Products 9%
Other 13%
Vegetable
Oils 7%
Honduras
Maize
40%
Cereal
53%
Sweeteners
& Sugar
16%
Animal
Products 14%
Cereal
48%
Nicaragua
Maize
32%
Other 9%
Wheat 11%
Beans 3%
Rice 2%
Sorghum 0.2%
Wheat 10%
Vegetable
Oils 11%
Beans 3%
Rice 5%
Sorghum 1%
Sweeteners
& Sugar
16%
Animal
Products 11%
Other 6%
Vegetable
Oils 8%
SOURCE: FAO Food Balance Sheets, 2003. (http://faostat.fao.org/faostat)
MFEWS is part of the USAID-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)
www.mfews.net ♦ [email protected]
Maize
21%
Cereal
50%
Beans 10%
Wheat 6%
Rice 6%
Sorghum 16%
Food Security Depends on More than National Production
The graphs in Figure x show total cereal availability
in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua
for the five year period from 1999 to 2003. The
2,000
blue lines show how much cereal was produced
1,750
domestically, while the red lines show total national
1,500
cereal supplies, or cereal availability, which in1,250
cludes not only production but also the amount of
1,000
stocks held at the beginning of the year, plus cereal
750
imports, less cereal exports. This illustrates that
500
while production is a very important source of
250
national cereal supplies, international trade is also a
0
1999
crucial ingredient and must be factored into national
food security analysis. Any disruptions to such
trade could adversely affect a country’s food
2,000
security status.
Trends in Nicaragua over the past five years are
encouraging. Domestic cereal production has increased from 495,000 MT to 883,000 MT, (78
percent), while the proportion of net food imports
has actually decreased slightly. This contrasts with
other countries in the region, where production
levels have more or less stagnated, and the
quantities of net imports as a percent of total cereal
availability has increased from 29 to 40 percent in
El Salvador, 41 to 48 percent in Guatemala and 44
to 51 percent in Honduras.
FIGURE X: CEREAL AVAILABILITY IN EL SALVADOR,
GUATEMALA, HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA, 1999-2003
El Salvador
Guatemala
2,000
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
1999
2000
Honduras
2001
2002
2003
Nicaragua
2,000
1,750
1,750
1,500
1,500
1,250
1,250
1,000
1,000
750
750
500
500
250
250
0
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Production
Production + Opening Stocks + Imports - Exports
SOURCE: FAO Food Balance Sheets, 1999-2003. (http://faostat.fao.org/faostat)
Comparing Cereal Availability with Cereal Uses
To facilitate comparability and regional analysis across countries, the graph below shows cereal sources and uses on an annual per
capita basis, using FAO food balance data from 2003. This is important for food security analysis, since cereal is not used exclusively
for food. For example in Belize, Costa Rica and Panama, it is seen that less than half of total cereal available is actually used as food.
In these countries, more than half is used as livestock feed. In contrast to these three countries, in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras
and Nicaragua most available cereal is used as food, with relatively small amounts used as feed and for other purposes.
This analysis also shows that in the poorer Central America countries, only Nicaragua was able to meet its cereal consumption
requirements through domestic production in 2003. El Salvador met 85% of its cereal requirements, Guatemala 70% and Honduras
67%. Any decrease in domestic production, through for example excessively wet or dry conditions, will increase the percent of cereal
that needs to be imported in order to meet consumption requirements. Thus ensuring food security at the national level depends not
only on domestic production, but also on the capacity of countries to import food to make up any shortfalls. Based on a country’s
comparative advantages, food security strategies may focus on enhancing import capacity rather than trying to achieve food selfsufficiency.
FIGURE X: SOURCES AND USES OF NATIONAL CEREAL SUPPLIES IN CENTRAL AMERICA, (PER PERSON, PER YEAR), 2003
SOURCES OF CEREAL SUPPLIES
Kilograms per Person per year
350
Opening Stocks + Imports - Exports
Production
300
250
USES OF CEREAL SUPPLIES
Seed
Manufacturing
Waste
Other Uses
Feed
Food
200
150
100
50
0
Belize
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panama
SOURCE: FAO Food Balance Sheets, 2003. (http://faostat.fao.org/faostat)
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