Trends in Maryland College-­‐Bound Seniors’ SAT Scores Joseph Popovich March 2016 In 2015, SAT scores for Maryland’s college-­‐bound seniors dropped for the fifth consecutive year (Figure 1). Scores nationally also declined slightly after years of stability. Until 2005 the SAT scores of Maryland college-­‐bound seniors closely tracked national averages. However, over the past ten years the SAT scores of Maryland students increasingly have fallen below those of their national peers. In 2015, Maryland students scored 22 points lower than their national counterparts on the combined mathematics and verbal sections of the SAT. The prior year, Maryland test takers were 23 points below the national average, the largest difference on record.1 Figure 1: Trends in Maryland and National SAT Scores (Math +Verbal), 1998-­‐2015 1040 1030 1020 1010 1000 990 980 1028 1026 1026 1021 Na&onal 1019 1020 1020 1017 1016 1015 1014 1015 1026 1026 1013 1024 1011 1010 1010 1010 1020 1018 1006 1016 1014 1014 1012 1007 1002 1001 1002 1001 999 997 Maryland 987 984 970 960 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 What accounts for the declining SAT scores in Maryland and the growing disparities between the Maryland and national averages? In this brief we argue that the downward trend in SAT scores is related to the changing demographic composition of the college age population in Maryland. We begin by comparing the population of SAT test takers in Maryland to the national pool of test takers. We then discuss the impact of changing demographics in Maryland and the challenges this poses for meeting the state’s goal of increasing the number of college graduates. The Changing Demographic Profile of SAT Test Takers Table 1 shows that Maryland’s composition of test takers approximates the national profile for Asian and white students. On the other hand, Maryland has a much higher representation of African 1
National and Maryland SAT data are from a series of College Board reports on college going-­‐seniors. The reports for 2015 and prior years can be found at: http://research.collegeboard.org/programs/sat/data/cb-­‐seniors-­‐2015. 1 | C o l l e g e o f E d u c a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f M a r y l a n d Americans (32% in Maryland compared to 13% nationally) and a much lower representation of Hispanics (8% compared to 19%) than the national SAT pool. Table 1: Test Takers by Racial/Ethnic Group, 2015 National Maryland
Asian
12%
9%
Black
13%
32%
Hispanic
19%
8%
White
47%
45%
Other
5%
4%
No Response
4%
2%
Total
100%
100% As shown in Table 2, there are considerable differences in SAT scores among racial/ethnic groups. Asians out-­‐score all groups both nationally and in Maryland. On the other hand, African Americans, on average, score the lowest in the state as well as nationally and are the only racial group in Maryland to score below the national average Table 2: SAT Scores (Math +Verbal) by Racial/Ethnic Group, 2015 Difference
National Maryland MD -­‐ US
Asian
1123
1129
6
White
1063
1080
17
Hispanic
905
910
5
Black
859
842
-­‐17
Thus, Maryland scores below the national SAT average primarily because it has a much higher representation of African-­‐American test takers – the group with the lowest average SAT scores -­‐ AND because African Americans in Maryland, on average, score below their black counterparts nationally. Understanding the Implications of Changing Demographics on College Enrollment in Maryland Maryland has experienced a significant change in the composition of its K-­‐12 public school population over the past decade. There has been a sharp decline in the number of white students and a large increase in Hispanics. The already-­‐large African-­‐American student population has stabilized. These changes have been accompanied by a steady increase in the percentage of low-­‐income students eligible for the Federal Free and Reduced Lunch Program.2 This change has no doubt affected Maryland’s SAT scores as parental education and family income are closely correlated with test performance. The changing composition of public school enrollment in the state is now translating into changes in the composition of the college-­‐age population. The number of high school graduates in Maryland, following 2
Popovich, J. (2015). Why is the number of college freshmen declining in Maryland? College Park, MD: Maryland Equity Project, the University of Maryland. 2 | C o l l e g e o f E d u c a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f M a r y l a n d over a decade of strong growth, peaked in 2008 and has been stable since. Within this stable overall total, however, there has been a sharp decline in white high school graduates and a corresponding increase in Hispanic and multiracial graduates. Despite stability in the number of Maryland high school graduates overall, the number of students from Maryland enrolling as incoming freshmen at Maryland campuses has dropped by nearly 5,700, or 14% between 2009 and 2015.3 The changing nature of the college-­‐age population, with a shift toward more minority and lower income individuals, is most likely the cause. Maryland has established ambitious goals for increasing the number college graduates. This will require the state to successfully educate students through receipt of the degree at a higher rate than at present. With the number of students entering college declining, this will not be possible unless the freshman downturn is reversed. One of the outcomes of the strong growth in high school graduates that took place from the mid-­‐1990s until recently was the increasing selectivity on the part of many of Maryland’s public four-­‐year campuses. In light of the increasing proportion of lower-­‐scoring students graduating from high school it will be a challenge for some selective campuses to maintain their existing academic profiles for their entering freshmen classes. More generally, the state will have to determine how to better support those institutions which commit to enrolling increasing numbers of the emerging college-­‐age population if it is to maintain its current level of degree production. It is likely that the less selective campuses will have to assume most of this role because it is compatible with their missions and culture. Additional funding will be required for academic support and student financial aid. Table 3, using 2015 data on national test takers provided by the College Board, shows the percentages of specific racial/ethnic groups scoring in different ranges on the SAT.4 The data demonstrate the mathematical impossibility of significantly increasing overall black and Hispanic educational attainment by expecting relatively selective or highly selective institutions (i.e., those that require a combined SAT Verbal and Math score of 1100 or above) to have significant increases in minority enrollments without changing admission standards. Very few African-­‐American or Hispanic students have the pre-­‐college preparation, as measured by the SAT that approximates the admissions requirements at selective campuses.5 For example, only 6% of blacks and 9% of Hispanics score 600 or above on the verbal portion of the SAT. By comparison, 26% of whites and 29% of Asians score 600 or above (see Table 3). Because of the decline in whites, more selective institutions face a declining pool of students with the academic preparation they traditionally have required. There is already a great deal of competition for the relatively few high-­‐scoring minority students who are likely to be successful in college. Hence, campuses that recruit and enroll such students will not be adding to the size of the general pool of minorities holding degrees. They will just be trading among themselves within the small pool of higher-­‐scoring students. The payoff will have to come from 3
Popovich, J. (2015). Why is the number of college freshmen declining in Maryland? College Park, MD: Maryland Equity Project, The University of Maryland. 4
Exact percentiles are not available for Maryland but there is no reason to assume Maryland’s are much different from national data, which is quite stable from year to year. 5
The data for Table 3 can be found at the College Board website: https://securemedia.collegeboard.org/digitalServices/pdf/sat/sat-­‐percentile-­‐ranks-­‐gender-­‐ethnicity-­‐2015.pdf 3 | C o l l e g e o f E d u c a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f M a r y l a n d educating many more from within the ranks of those with less-­‐than-­‐adequate college preparation and significant financial need. Table 3: Students Scoring in Various Ranges on the SAT, 2015 National Results <400 400-­‐500 500-­‐600 600-­‐700 >700 Total Verbal Black 37% 38% 19% 5% 1% 100% Asian 15% 26% 29% 21% 9% 100% Latino 32% 36% 23% 8% 1% 100% White 9% 29% 36% 20% 6% 100% Math Black 39% 37% 18% 5% 1% 100% Asian 7% 15% 24% 29% 25% 100% Latino 29% 37% 23% 9% 2% 100% White 9% 27% 36% 22% 6% 100% Beyond the question of admission and enrollment is the issue of increasing, or even maintaining, degree production in STEM and other fields requiring a strong quantitative background. Only small percentages (11% for Hispanics and 6% for blacks) score over 600 on the math portion of the SAT (table 3). A score at this level would probably be considered the minimum for being successful in such major fields of study unless significant intervention takes place. Some campuses have demonstrated that this is possible, but it is a resource-­‐intensive effort. Conclusion As this policy brief shows, changes in pre-­‐college academic preparation and college enrollment are closely tied to changes in the demographic composition of college age population in Maryland. To reach the state goal of increasing the number of college graduates will require a multi-­‐pronged approach that includes addressing the academic preparation of students in the elementary and secondary school system. This will require building the capacity of schools and districts to meet the needs of a diverse student population as well as the implementation of programmatic interventions, such as providing extra tutoring and mentoring services, the expansion of early education programs, and the adoption of strategies designed to support students on the path to college enrollment.6 It may well require devoting extra attention to the needs of the lowest income students regardless of race or ethnicity. At the college level it will require addressing issues such as college affordability, the transition from remedial courses to credit bearing courses and from community college to four-­‐year institutions, and removing obstacles to college enrollment. 6
Klasik, D. (2013). The college application gauntlet: The obstacles presented by the steps to college enrollment. College Park, MD: Maryland Equity Project, The University of Maryland. 4 | C o l l e g e o f E d u c a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f M a r y l a n d