Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the United States Author(s): S. Karthick Ramakrishnan and Thomas J. Espenshade Source: International Migration Review, Vol. 35, No. 3 (Autumn, 2001), pp. 870-909 Published by: The Center for Migration Studies of New York, Inc. Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2675847 . Accessed: 21/03/2011 13:31 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at . http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=cmigrations. . Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. The Center for Migration Studies of New York, Inc. is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to International Migration Review. http://www.jstor.org and Incorporation Immigrant in Participation the United Political States1 S. Karthick Ramakrishnan Princeton University Thomas J. Espenshade Princeton University This article examines several factors related to immigrant incorporation that have been ignored in previous studies of voting participation. We add various immigrant-related variables to a model that controls for indi? vidual resources, social incorporation, institutional barriers and contexts of political mobilization. We find little support for straight-line assimilationist theories of immigrant adaptation. We also find that coming from a repressive regime has no significant effect on voting and that living in areas with Spanish-language ballots does not increase the likelihood of voting among first generation Latinos. Our results also suggest that antiimmigrant legislation has a positive effect on participation among first and second generation immigrants. Overall, the immigrant-related vari? ables introduced in our analysis add significantly to the existing theoret? ical knowledge on voting participation in the United States. In the past decade, there has been a substantial amount of research on the demographic, economic and social incorporation of immigrants in the Unit? ed States. In the demographic arena, researchers have investigated how migrants' patterns of fertility,health and mortality, and settlement compare with those of natives (Kahn, 1994; Guendelman et al, 1990; Frey, 1996; White and Omer, 1997). Studies of the economic and social incorporation of immigrants have analyzed immigrants' earnings and employment opportunities in relation to those of the native-born and how immigrants' education, occupational mobility, and English-language ability change with the passage of time in the 1Anearlierversionof thispaperwas presentedat the annual meetingof the PopulationAsso? ciation of America,Los Angeles,CA, March 23-25, 2000. We thankthe anonymousreview? ers fortheirvaluable suggestions.We also thankR. Douglas Arnold, LarryBartels,Jennifer Hochschild,JaneJunn,Tali Mendelberg,Debbie Schildkrautand Min Zhou fortheirfeed? back and criticisms.Finally,we thank Sipra Roy forher help with creatingthe graphsand tablesforthispaper,and the Officeof PopulationResearchCenterGrant#P30HD32030 for the use of facilitiesat the Officeof PopulationResearchat PrincetonUniversity. reserved. ? 2001 bytheCenterforMigration StudiesofNewYork.All rights 0198-9183/01/3503.0135 870 IMR Volume 35 Number 3 (Fall 2001): 870-909 Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. 871 United States (Borjas, 1999; Stevens, 1992; Portes and MacLeod, 1999; Espenshade and Fu, 1997; Lopez, 1999). Studies of political incorporation have focused primarily on the determi? nants of naturalization ferent nationalities and differences in citizenship acquisition across dif? (Portes and Mozo, 1985; Liang, 1994; Yang, 1994). Scholars of immigrant incorporation have paid considerably less attention to voting and other forms of political participation occur after naturalization. Although first and second generation constitute nearly 15 percent of eligible voters in the United States, there have been few systematic studies of voting participation across immigrant generations. Many of the studies have had a limited scope, applying either to particular ethnic populations or to particu? lar localities. Examples of early works on generational differences in partici? pation include articles by Lamar Kellstedt (1974) and James Lamare (1982). study of Buffalo, New York showed that second generation respondents have higher rates of voting participation than either immigrants or nonethnic first or higher generation respondents. Lamare noted in his Kellstedt's study of Chicano children in El Paso, Texas that third generation respondents had the highest levels of psychological identification and affect towards the political system.2 More recently, there have been a few cross-ethnic studies of immigrant political incorporation in particular states such as California and Texas (Uhlaner et al, 1989; Cho, 1999; Junn, 1999) or in metropolitan areas such as New York and Los Angeles (Mollenkopf et al, 1999; Wong, 2000). In their study of political participation in California, Uhlaner et al, note that voting among immigrants is influenced by the duration of their stay in the United States, as well as by their ability to speak English. Cho (1999) also finds such factors to be important and suggests that immigrants educated abroad are less likely to vote than those educated in the United States. Final? that immigrants may be less likely to participate in "system-directed" activities such as voting, but they are just as likely as the native born to participate in "direct" political activities such as protests. While these studies all offer important insights regarding immigrant political incor? ly, Junn (1999) concludes poration, they are limited by the fact that they examine only particular states or metropolitan areas. studies of generational status and voting During the past participation, but these, too, have had their limitations. decade, there have been three national-level studies on generational status and There are a few national-level voting participation, two of which have been restricted to Latino subpopula2Lamarerefersto childrenwhose parentswerebornin theUnitedStatesas 'secondgeneration.' 872 International Migration Review tions (Bass and Casper, 1999; DeSipio, 1996b; also see Hill and Moreno, 1996).3 None of these recent studies explicitly considers generational status in their analyses, as they focus solely on differences between native-born and foreign-born citizens. As we shall see, separating out the second generation offers some important insights on processes of political adaptation among immigrants. In addition, these studies are largely demographic in nature, paying little attention to how political contexts affect individuals' propensi? ties to vote. For example, this research fails to account for institutional bar? riers to registering and voting, as well as the intensity of electoral competition. Our goal in this paper is to build a more complete model of voting par? ticipation, drawing on some of the recent theoretical insights on the effects of political mobilization and macropolitical contexts on electoral participation (Rosenstone and Hansen, 1993; Shachar and Nalebuff, 1999). After review? ing the standard theoretical literature on voting participation, we introduce several factors related to immigrant incorporation that have not previously been considered in studies of voting participation. An analysis of voting par? ticipation is conducted using data from three recent Current Population Sur? vey Voter Supplements (CPS). Although we incorporate such factors as indi? vidual resources and contexts of political mobilization, our empirical analysis Finally, the theoreti? emphasizes factors related to immigrant incorporation. cal implications of the results of our model are discussed, especially as they relate to assimilationist accounts of immigrant adaptation immigrant legislation on political participation. TRADITIONAL MODELS OF VOTING and the impact of PARTICIPATION Theories of electoral turnout have tended to emphasize one or more of the characteristics and individual following sets of factors: 1) demographic resources related to socioeconomic status, 2) incorporation into social net? works, 3) institutional barriers to registering and voting, 4) strategic mobi? lization by political actors, and 5) attitudinal factors such as partisanship, political interest and political efficacy.4 Our theoretical model incorporates the first four sets of factors. Factors related to individual attitudes and orien3AlthoughHill and Moreno are interestedin the question of whethersecond-generation Cubans are more likelyto participatein politics,theydo not explicitlyinclude generational statusin theirmultivariatemodel. Instead,theyuse a continuousvariablethat measuresthe percentof one's lifethe respondenthas spentin the United States. refersto the 4In the standardtheoreticalliteratureon votingparticipation,"externalefficacy" extentto which respondentsbelieve that theirparticipationmattersand "internalefficacy" refersto the extentto which respondentsfeelthattheyunderstandgovernmentand politics. Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. 873 tations are set aside because the CPS does not provide any meaningful mea? sures for such variables. The issue of individual-level data on political atti? tudes is addressed later in the discussion of data sources. Individual Resources and Demographic Theorists have devoted considerable Characteristics attention to individual resources such as education and income on electoral participation. Studies both of the Current Population Survey and the National Election Study (NES) have shown that educational attainment has the strongest effects on voting, serving both as an indicator of political skills and the likelihood of being mobilized (Wolfinger and Rosenstone, 1980; Rosenstone and Hansen, 1993). Income has also been shown to be a significant predictor of voting participation, although its effects are generally weaker than those of education. In addition to resources, theorists have also drawn attention to the of individual importance demographic characteristics such as age and race. has a positive, curvilinear relationship to voter turnout; older citizens Age tend to have higher levels of political knowledge and partisan identification Racial gaps in voting have been shown to (Rosenstone and Hansen, 1993). be significant for Latinos and Asian-Americans, but not for African-Ameri? cans. Since the passage of the National Voting Rights Act in 1965, racial gaps in registration and voting between blacks and whites have narrowed consid? erably. Even as early as 1980, scholars began to note that, after controlling for other demographic factors, whites did not have a significant advantage in By contrast, participation over blacks (Wolfinger and Rosenstone, 1980). studies of Latino political participation have shown a persistent gap in voting (Calvo and Rosenstone, participation between Latinos and non-Latinos 1984; Hero and Campbell, 1996). There have been few national studies of voting participation among Asian-Americans; most studies have focused on particular states such as California or particular metropolitan areas such as Los Angeles (Lien, 1997; Uhlaner et al, 1989; Nakanishi, 1986). However, one recent analysis of CPS data reveals that Asian-Americans were the group least likely to vote in the 1992 general election (Lien, 1998). Social Incorporation In addition to individual-level factors, theorists have also paid attention to the incorporation of individuals into communities or social contexts that encour? age or discourage political participation. Chief among the social-contextual variables mentioned are employment status, residential stability and marital International Migration Review 874 unemployed are less likely to participate in politics, not only because they tend to have lower incomes, but also because they do not par? ticipate in social networks in the workplace that reward political participation status. The (Wolfinger and Rosenstone, 1980; Rosens tone and Hansen, 1993). People with low levels of residential stability are less likely to participate because they are less likely to be vested in their communities and are less likely to have sta? ble networks of friends and neighbors. These networks are considered to be important in fostering political participation because they subsidize the costs of obtaining political information. Furthermore, peer influences among spouses and social networks are believed to foster participation by applying selective sanctions for noncompliance and Hansen, (Rosenstone 1993). While peer influences can indeed operate in the opposite direction (towards political apathy and abstention from voting), past evidence from both the CPS and the NES indicate otherwise; those who are more embedded in social networks are indeed more likely to vote (Wolfinger and Rosenstone, Rosenstone and Hansen, 1993). Institutional 1980; Barriers While an individual's resources and degree of "social connectedness" have a strong influence on his or her likelihood to vote, macropolitical contexts also matter. Institutional barriers to voting can have a substantial impact on voter turnout, as witnessed by low levels of black turnout during the Jim Crow era of poll taxes and literacy tests. After the elimination of such restrictions dur? ing the 1960s, the most significant barriers that remain are state-level rules on registration and absentee voting. States with restrictive eligibility for absen? tee voting decrease the probability of voting among registered citizens (Oliv? er, 1996). Similarly, citizens who live in states with early closing dates for reg? istration are less likely to register in time for elections. Political Mobilization The level of political mobilization in a given state or congressional district can have a significant influence on voter turnout. From the early works of V.O. Key (1949) and E. E. Schattschneider (I960),5 political scientists have noted the importance of political mobilization and party competition in inducing 5ln his comparativestudyof Southernpolitics,Key (1949) noted thatstateswithhigherpar? tisan or factionalcompetitionhad higherlevelsof voterturnout.Indeed, Key attributedthe low turnoutamong poor Southernwhites,not as much to poll taxesor literacytests,but to the lack of two-partycompetitionin the South. Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. 875 higher levels of voter turnout. Recent studies of electoral turnout have revived in general concerns about party competition and political mobilization (Rosenstone and Hansen, 1993; Schachar and Nalebuff, 1999). They show that individuals who live in states where presidential contests are close are more likely to vote than those living in states where there is a clear favorite. This is due largely to differences in state-level mobilization by political actors. put it, "campaigns, interest groups, and the in inch every campaigns that stand to be decided by tenths of percentage points, and they tacitly concede campaigns that look to be blowouts" (179). Political mobilization also varies by the number of major electoral contests As Rosenstone and Hansen media...contest in a given election. States that have a governor's race or a senate race concurrent with presidential or house elections have higher levels of political mobilization and voter turnout. The effects can be especially strong during midterm elec? tions, when there is no presidential contest to generate interest among poten? tial voters (Rosenstone and Hansen: 184). Finally, the historical legacy of mobi? lization and participation in a particular state or region can have a significant influence on individuals' propensities to register and vote. Indeed, political sci? entists in the 1970s and 1980s noted a kind of regional "political culture" in the South, a vestige of one-party competition and racial disenfranchisement that led to lower turnout among Southern blacks and whites. IMMIGRANT VOTING INCORPORATION - AN EXPANDED MODEL OF PARTICIPATION When considering political participation, as well as other processes of immi? grant adaptation, it is useful to think of such processes as having at least two - across time within a particular immigrant generation temporal dimensions and across generations. For example, researchers have typically found that earnings and English-language ability improve the longer immigrants live in the United States. At the same time, there are also differences in language across generations. Foreign-born individuals frequently do not speak English as well as their native-born children, and second generation immigrants often retained some understanding of their parents' mother acquisition tongue. Those in the third generation or higher typically lose all proficiency in the original migrants' language unless they make some special effort to regain it (Fishman, 1972; Lopez, 1999). This study incorporates both these temporal dimensions and other new features as predictors of political participation. International Migration Review 876 Generational Status Traditional theories of immigrant adaptation considered assimilation to be a unilinear process, whereby the economic and social conditions of individuals and ethnic groups improve over each succeeding generation. Over the past decade, several studies have challenged the applicability of "straight-line" the? ories of immigrant adaptation to the "new" second generation (Gans, 1992; Portes and Zhou, 1993; Rumbaut, 1997; Zhou, 1997). Many of the revi? sionist perspectives present a model of "segmented assimilation," in which different group characteristics and modes of incorporation lead to diverse that can include second generation decline. In order to test the applicability of the straight-line and segmented assimilation models of immi? outcomes grant incorporation, we analyze generational patterns in participation across different racial/ethnic groups. We expect to find different generational pat? terns across racial groups because of stark differences in the historical recep? tion given to immigrants from Europe versus those from Asia and Latin America (Espiritu, 1992). While urban machines and mobilization under the New Deal ensured the political incorporation of immigrants from Europe, exclusionary laws and discriminatory practices prevented many Asian and immigrants from exercising their political voice until the 1970s (de la Garza, 1996; Espiritu, 1992) .6 Within each racial/ethnic group, we expect first generation citizens to be the least likely to vote because of linguistic and cultural barriers that make it Mexican more difficult for them to obtain political information or vote in areas with English-only ballots. First generation citizens are also more likely than those in higher generations to retain ties to political institutions in the home coun? try. On the other hand, there may indeed be selection effects whereby those who choose to naturalize have unusually high levels of commitment to polit? ical participation or high levels of political awareness after preparing for the citizenship exam. Even with these selection effects, however, we still expect participation to be lowest among first generation respondents because of the overriding importance of linguistic barriers, cultural barriers and immigrant political orientations. Duration of Stay in the United States For the foreign-born, duration of stay in the United States can be an impor? tant indicator of the extent to which immigrants are incorporated into were not able to naturalizeuntil 1952. 6Indeed,mostAsian immigrants Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. 877 domestic political institutions. Based on previous findings among Latino and Asian-American populations (Uhlaner et al, 1989, Hill and Moreno, 1996), we expect longer residence in the United States to lead to greater political par? ticipation among first generation citizens. Just as immigrants who have lived in the United States for a longer period of time are more fluent in English, they also tend to have greater contact with, and stronger commitments to, the mainstream political system. For example, Cain, Kiewiet and Uhlaner (1991) note in their study of California residents that partisan identification among Latinos, Chinese and Korean immigrants becomes stronger the longer they stay in the United States. Political Socialization For naturalized in the Home Country prior experience with repressive or democratic referred to as "prior political experience") can have a sig? regimes (hereafter nificant impact on the propensity to vote. Those fleeing regimes with long citizens, histories of political repression may be mistrustful of the political system and therefore be less likely to vote in elections. On the other hand, they may rel? ish the freedom of choosing among competing candidates for political office and therefore be more likely to vote. So far, only comparative studies of Cuban and Mexican immigrants have examined whether prior political expe? rience has a significant impact on subsequent participation. Based on precinct-level data from Miami, Portes and Mozo (1985) argue that CubanAmericans have higher levels of turnout than other Hispanic subgroups. Multivariate analyses of the Latino National Political Survey add further cre? dence to the prior political experience hypothesis - Cuban immigrants are more likely to vote than Mexican immigrants, even after controlling for age, income and length of stay in the United States (Arvizu and Gar? cia, 1996). However, given the small number of countries of origin in such studies (Cuba and Mexico), the effect of prior political experience on voting education, participation has not been systematically tested. It remains to be seen whether the voting participation of Cuban Americans is consistent with that of immi? grants from other communist or repressive regimes. Finally, just as prior political experience may influence voting participa? tion among foreign-born citizens, it may also influence participation among children of the first generation. Studies of political socialization have shown exposure to political activities or discussions by parents has a significant impact on subsequent adult participation (Jennings and Niemi, 1981; Verba, Schlozman and Brady, 1995). Thus, if an immigrant family's that childhood International Migration Review 878 "prior political experience" does indeed have a significant impact on political participation in the United States, we would expect the impact to be present among the second generation as well, albeit perhaps to a lesser degree. Linguistic Barriers to Participation The traditional literature on barriers to voting participation has focused the effects of absentee ballot restrictions, registration requirements and racial ger? rymandering on voter turnout. When considering the political incorporation of immigrants, linguistic barriers to participation can play just as important a role as some of the other barriers to participation. The presence or absence of multilingual ballots should have their greatest impact on individuals with the lowest levels of English proficiency. Thus, for example, living in a Span? ish-ballot area versus an English-only-ballot area should increase turnout among Latino immigrants, and the difference should be greater for the first generation than for higher generation Latinos. Ethnic Residential Concentration Those who live in states or metropolitan areas with high concentrations of coethnics are more likely to have contacts with, or exposure to, ethnic media and community organizations. Having higher concentrations of co-ethnics there? fore lowers the per-capita cost of ethnic mobilization by interest groups, party organizations and candidate organizations. At the same time, previous studies of Latino participation have shown that areas of high ethnic concentrations can also be areas of lower mobilization and participation (DeSipio, 1996a; de la Garza, 1996). This may be due to the effect of other social contextual factors associated with high Latino and immigrant concentrations: higher residential poverty, greater proportions of noncitizens, and peers with low English profi? ciency (Cho, 1999; Espenshade and Fu, 1997). If proximity to co-ethnics does indeed lead to higher electoral mobilization, we would expect such mobilization to have a stronger effect on the voting participation of those in the second gen? eration or higher. While firstgeneration citizens may have deeper ties to their co-ethnic communities, such ties may not lead to greater participation in the United States because firstgeneration ethnic organizations tend to orient them? selves more towards homeland politics than U.S. politics (Jones-Correa, 1998). Mobilization While over Anti-Immigrant mobilization Legislation among residential co-ethnics may have their strongest effects among those in higher generations, we expect anti-immigrant legislation Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. 879 to have a distinct mobilizing effect on firstand second generation immigrants. Those in the firstor second generation are more likely to mobilize against laws that threaten to cut off public benefits to immigrants because they are more like? ly to have relatives that stand to lose those benefits. Media reports of the 1996 election indicate that immigrant legislation in 1996 was indeed more salient for immigrants than for the rest of the population (Glastris et al, 1997; McDon? nell and Ramos, 1996). This article assesses the impact of anti-immigration leg? islation on turnout by examining whether mobilization over Proposition 187 in California led to a disproportionate increase in voting participation among first and second generation immigrants. To summarize, traditional theories of political participation have exam? ined the effects of individual resources, social incorporation and political mobilization on voter turnout. In this study, we introduce additional vari? ables related to immigrant incorporation that may influence voting partici? Some of these variables have been included in previous studies of pation. political participation that have been limited to particular ethnic groups or to particular regions. We examine the effects of these new immigrantrelated variables across racial/ethnic groups by using national data on voting by participation. DATA AND METHODS This analysis relies on the Current Population Survey November Voter Sup? plements (CPS) from 1994, 1996 and 1998. The CPS offers several advan? tages in the study of voting participation across immigrant generations. First, it is the only national survey since 1994 that includes questions on voting as well as questions on the nativity of respondents and their parents. Similar questions have been absent from the National Black Election Study and from the National Election Study (NES) since 1994. As for Latinos, a 1996 sur? the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute (TRPI) includes questions on the vey by generational status of respondents, but the sample is limited to three states (California, Florida and Texas). The last national survey of Latinos on voting participation that included generational status was the Latino National Polit? ical Survey in 1990. The CPS, then, remains the only source of information on voting that has consistently asked questions on the generational status of respondents in recent elections. There are several other advantages to using the CPS to analyze immigrant One is the size of the sample for each election year, voting participation. which yields large subsamples of immigrant generations across racial/ethnic 880 International Migration Review groups. In 1998, for instance, the sample of firstgeneration citizens included 1,817 whites, 263 blacks, 1,051 Asian-Americans and 1,046 Latinos.7 Anoth? er advantage to the CPS is the richness of the data on immigrant characteris? tics. For instance, the NES contains information on whether respondents and were in their parents born the United States or abroad, but it does not include country-of-origin information for firstand second generation immigrants. The lack of country-of-origin data prevents us from examining the effect of repres? sive-regime origins on voting participation. Furthermore, the national data in the CPS has greater variation than the three-state TRPI survey on factors such as state concentration of Latinos and access to Spanish-language ballots. Final? ly, neither the NES nor the TRPI datasets include information such as the dura? tion of stay in the United States for firstgeneration citizens. At the same time, there are two limitations to utilizing Current Population Survey data to analyze voting participation. First, the CPS does not include any individual-level information on political attitudes or party contact that have been known to lead to greater participation. It has been well documented that individual contact with party organizations, strong party identification, and feelings of political efficacy increase the likelihood that a person will vote (Rosenstone and Hansen, 1993; Miller and Shanks, 1996; Verba, Schlozman and Brady, 1995). Another limitation is that the CPS does not include vali? dated measures of voting that confirm whether or not an individual's reported vote matches public records of registration and voting. Although misreporting in the CPS is considerably lower than misreporting in other surveys such as the National Election Study (Presser et al, 1990), past studies have shown that lev? els of misreporting among blacks and Latinos are higher than those among whites (Abramson and Claggett, 1992; Shaw et al, 1999).8 We address the first limitation by including contextual measures of polit? ical mobilization and state legacies of voting participation, but we cannot find a similar solution for other attitudinal factors such as political efficacy and and 7These figuresare based on valid responsesamong adult U.S. citizensto the registration voting questions in the CPS Voter Supplement.Those who identifyas "AmericanIndian, Aleut, Eskimo" are dropped fromthe analysisbecause theirgenerationalsubsamplesare too small to providereliableestimates. 8Thereis some disagreementas to whetherthe higherlevelof mismatchbetweenreportedand validatedvotes among blacks is due to the higherpropensityof black to misreportor to the and of registrations factthatblacks are more likelyto live in areas with poor record-keeping in the qualityof votes.Abramsonand Claggett(1992) do not findany substantialdifferences Presseretal. (1990), based on by race,based on self-reports byvoterregistrars. record-keeping find that blacks in the NES are twice as likelyas requestsforinformationby investigators, whitesto come fromareaswithpoor record-keeping. Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. 881 party identification.9 Next, in order to address the problem of vote misreporting, we examined validated data in the TRPI and NES to determine whether there are any generational differences in the propensity to misreport the vote. There were no significant generational differences in vote misreporting among Latinos in the TRPI survey. We used the NES to examine vote misreporting only among white respondents because the size of the black, Asian- American and Latino subsamples were too small for our analysis. Second generation whites in the NES were less likely to misreport their votes than those in other immigrant generations. As we shall see, if a similar pattern of misreporting occurs for whites in the CPS as it does in the NES, then the true generational differences in voting participation would be even larger than the difference found in our analysis. On balance, then, we consider the Current Population Survey to be a valuable dataset with which to examine the various questions that we have raised related to immigrant incorporation. Our sample for the CPS is limited to U.S. citizens who are at least 18 years old. We designate those born outside the United States as "first gener? ation," those born in the United States with at least one foreign-born parent as "second generation," and those born in the United States with U.S.-born We fit a logistic regression model to the data parents as "3+ generation." because the dependent variable - voted or did not vote in the November elec? tions - is dichotomous. Our independent variables include not only indi? vidual-level data from the CPS, but also several contextual variables from information on registration requirements from the League of Women Voters and data on absentee ballot requirements from a recent study of voting participation (Oliver, 1996). We also use infor? other data sources. We obtained of senatorial, gubernatorial and presidential races surveys in Congressional Quarterly Weekly Reports and mation on the closeness from pre-election Associated Press Research (Cranford, 1994; Babson and Groppe, 1994; Greenblatt and Wells, 1996; Yoachum, 1996; Cassata, 1998; Foerstel, 1998). Finally, we obtained aggregate state-level data on voter turnout from the Federal Election Commission. Instead of using the dummy Greenblatt, 1996; variable "South" to capture the effect of historical legacies of voting partici? pation on contemporary turnout, we use an average of voter turnout from for each state. We find this measure of state political culture to 1972-1992 9Admittedly, contextualmeasuresof electoralmobilizationhave a muchweakereffecton indi? vidual votingthan individual-levelmeasuresof partycontact.Partof the reasonis the endogeneitybetweenindividual-levelcontactand participation.Partiesare more likelyto contact individualswho have participatedin the past, or who are pre-disposedto participatebecause of theirsocioeconomicstatus. 882 International Migration Review be superior for two reasons. First, it looks at contemporary political culture, taking into account changes in registration and turnout in the South after the Civil Rights era and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Furthermore, the mea? sure allows for state-level variation and does not limit the effect of "political culture" to one regional bloc - namely the Confederate South. We provide a more complete description of the variables and their sources in the Appendix. EMPIRICAL RESULTS There are considerable differences in voting participation, both within the first generation as well as across immigrant generations (Figure 1). Looking firstat the tabulated data on voter turnout within the first generation, we see a pro? gressive increase in voting participation as immigrants spend more of their lives in the United States. This pattern appears for all racial/ethnic groups. Across immigrant generations, however, there are considerable differences in voter turnout for members of different racial groups. Among whites, we do not find a linear increase in participation from the firstgeneration to higher generations. Instead, we see a pattern of "second generation advantage" - a progressive increase in participation within the first generation by duration of stay in the United States, a peak in participation among the second generation, followed by a decline among "3+ generation" respondents. Among blacks, we do not find a second generation advantage. Voting among blacks is highest among those first generation respondents who have lived in the United States for 20 years or more. Similar results hold true for Latinos, while for Asian- Americans turnout is highest among those in the third generation or higher. The bivariate results for generational status and voter turnout therefore indicate that the second generation advantage applies only to whites. Among Asian-Americans, a more straight-line pattern seems to hold, where there is a progressive increase in participation by immigrant generation. Blacks and Latinos experience a similar monotonic increase in participation, except that the highest level of turnout is among long-term immigrant citizens. Since there are many factors related to individual resources, social incor? poration, institutional barriers and political mobilization that may account for differences in turnout, we need to re-examine the issue of generational dif? ferences in a multivariate model that controls for such factors. In our multivariate analyses, we fit our model to the entire sample of adult citizens and then apply the same model to each immigrant generation separately. Many of the traditional variables mentioned in the background literature are signif? icant across all immigrant generations {see Appendix Tables A-l to A-3). Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. Figure 1 883 Generational Differencesin Voting Participation,Midterm Elections 1994-1998a 100% 90% 80% I I FirstGen, <10 years 70% 60% 50% 40% ? FirstGen, 10-19 years H FirstGen, >19 years H Second Generation 30% Thirdand Higher Generation 20% 10% 0% White Black Asian Latino Source: Current November 1994,1998. Survey, Population in thegeneral levelofturnout Note:^Tabulated results elections of1994and1998because areonlyforthemidterm allracial in inturnout arestillpresent elections is much Generational differences among presidential groups higher. forallgroups whites. thedifferences other thannon-Hispanic aresmaller 1996,although Regardless of generation, the likelihood of voting increases with age and reaches a peak among 70-79 year olds before decreasing among the very old. Education also has similar effects across all immigrant generations, with vot? ing highest among college graduates and those with graduate degrees.10 High? er income consistently leads to greater voting participation, except for first generation respondents for whom the effect is weaker and varies from year to year. Among factors related to social incorporation, marital status and resi? to voting participation across are consistently more likely to vote than those who are not married, while those who have lived three or more dential stability show a robust relationship immigrant generations. Married individuals 10Whilethe findingsforage and education are in line with the standardaccounts of voting participation,theyrun contraryto the findingby Cho (1999) that older Asian and Latino immigrantsare less likelyto vote thanyoungerones, and thathighereducationdecreasesthe thesampleto only Even whenwe restrict likelihoodofparticipationamongAsian immigrants. Asians and Latinos,the traditionalpatternshold - age and education increasethe likelihood is due to the factthat the datasetthatCho of participation.It is possible thatthe difference utilizesis fromthe mid 1980s and is limitedto California. International Migration Review 884 years in a given address are more likely to vote than recent movers. Employ? ment status has an inconsistent relationship to voting across generations and over time. The coefficients for the variable display inconsistent signs and are fre? quently statistically insignificant. Finally, contextual variables such as the close? ness of presidential races and eligibility for absentee ballots show weak and inconsistent relationships to voting. On the other hand, restrictive registration requirements are consistently associated with lower voting participation and the closeness of senate/governor races with higher participation in midterm elec? tions. In sum, our empirical results confirm findings from previous studies that age, education, marital status and residential stability all have a significant effect on voting participation that is consistent across immigrant generations. Con? textual factors such as registration requirements and the closeness of senate/gov? ernor races also have a significant impact on voting participation. On the other hand, factors such as employment status, absentee voting eligibility and the closeness of presidential races do not have a significant impact on voter turnout. Even after controlling for traditional factors related to voting participation, many of the new variables of immigrant incorporation prove to be significant in all three election years (see Figures 2-4 below). These new variables are also jointly significant. The null hypothesis that the newly-included variables are jointly insignificant was rejected based on chi-squared likelihood-ratio tests in both the full samples and in the generational subsamples.11 For the rest of our discussion, we shall focus on the new set of variables introduced in the analysis. We do so primarily because many of these variables have not received system? atic attention in studies of voting participation and because they shed new light on the political incorporation of different immigrant generations. IMPACTS Generational OF THE NEW EXPLANATORY Patterns across Racial/Ethnic VARIABLES Groups Even after controlling for individual resources, social incorporation and con? texts of political mobilization, generational differences in the likelihood of voting remain significant for all racial/ethnic groups. Looking across immi? grant generations, the full model reveals that the "second generation advan- 11We rejectthe null hypothesisby using the likelihood-ratiotest.For example,in 1996 the likelihood-ratiostatistic,-2*(log likelihood of traditionalmodel - log likelihood of full model), is 836.35. This is well beyond the .01 chi-squaredcriticalvalue of 49.59 for 29 statisticsforthegenerationalsub-samplesin 1996 are degreesof freedom.The likelihood-ratio 164.64 forthe firstgeneration(.01 chi-squared=4l.63 for23 d.f.), 85.20 forthe second gen? eration (.01 chi-squared=29.l4 for 14 d.f.) and 521.80 for the 3+ generation(.01 chisquared= 27.69 for 13 d.f). Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. Figure 2 885 ImmigrantIncorporation and Voting Participation in 1994 Estimates in FullSampleModel ofSelectedVariables LogisticRegression 1stGen<10ys 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Second Generation 1stGen<10ys Black, 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Generation Second Third andHigher Gen 1stGen<10ys Asian, 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Second Generation Third andHigher Gen 1stGen<10ys Latino, 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Second Generation andHigher Gen Third From Repressive Regime Parent from Repressive Regime InSpanish Ballot Area Latino xinSpanish Ballot Area State% Black Black xState% Black State% Asian xState% Asian Asian State% Latino Latino xState% Latino StateVoting History California White, -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 COEFFICIENT 0.50 *p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01 For full A-2 intheAppendix. seeTable model, tage" still holds among whites. Depending on the election year, second gen? eration whites are 22 percent to 34 percent more likely to vote than those in higher generations and 30 percent to 40 percent more likely to vote than long-term immigrant residents.12 The fact that second generation whites are 12A word about terminology.If p is the probabilityof voting, then p/(l-p) represents the "odds" of voting. If (j is a logistic regressioncoefficient,then the exponentiatedform [exp(P)-l]xl00 equals thepercentagechangein the odds (or,loosely,the "likelihood")ofvot? ing when the associatedexplanatoryvariableis increasedby one unit. For example,0.2217 is the coefficient on "White,Second Generation"in the fullmodel for 1994. Here the odds (or likelihood)ofvotingare expectedto be [exp(0.2217)-l]xl00=25 percenthigherthantheodds forwhitesin the 3+ generation. 886 Figure 3 International Migration Review ImmigrantIncorporation and Voting Participation in 1996 in FullSampleModel Estimates ofSelectedVariables LogisticRegression 1stGen<10ys 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Generation Second Black, 1stGen<10ys 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Generation Second andHigher Gen Third Asian, 1stGen<10ys 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Second Generation andHigher Gen Third Latino, 1stGen<10ys 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Second Generation andHigher Gen Third From Repressive Regime Parent from Repressive Regime Ballot Area InSpanish xinSpanish Ballot Area Latino State% Black xState% Black Black State% Asian xState% Asian Asian State% Latino xState% Latino Latino StateVoting History California White, -0.50 COEFFICIENT *p<0.1, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01 For full seeTable A-2intheAppendix. model, less likely to misreport the vote in the NES than whites in other immigrant generations does not diminish the significance of the second generation advantage. Indeed, if a similar generational pattern of misreporting occurred in the CPS, the magnitude of the second generation advantage would be even greater with validated data than with reported data.13 For blacks, voting participation increases in a stepwise manner from the first generation to higher generations. A similar straight-line pattern can be 13Sincethose in the second generationwould be less likelyto misreportthe vote, using vali? dated data would lead to an evenhigherlikelihoodofvotingamongsecond generationrespon? dentswhen comparedto those in the firstgenerationor the 3+ generation. Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. Figure 4 887 ImmigrantIncorporation and Voting Participation in 1998 ofSelectedVariables in FullSampleModel Estimates LogisticRegression 1stGen<10ys 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Second Generation 1stGen<10ys Black, 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Generation Second Third andHigher Gen 1stGen<10ys Asian, 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Second Generation Third andHigher Gen 1stGen<10ys Latino, 1stGen10-19 ys 1stGen19ys Second Generation Third andHigher Gen From Repressive Regime Parent from Repressive Regime InSpanish Ballot Area xinSpanish Latino Ballot Area State% Black xState% Black Black State% Asian Asian xState% Asian State% Latino xState% Latino Latino StateVoting History California White, -0.50 COEFFICIENT *p<0.1, ***p<0.01 **p<0.05, For full seeTable A-3intheAppendix. model, found among Asian-Americans, although the increase in participation seems to taper off after the second generation.14 This tapering off in participation means that racial gaps in participation persist for Asian-Americans in the third generation and higher. Even after being in the United States for three or more generations, Asian-Americans are considerably less likely to vote than their white, black and Latino counterparts. Finally, among Latinos, the high? of participation is among first generation citizens who have est likelihood 141998 was the only year in which the likelihood of participationamong Asian-Americans increasedfromthe second generationto the 3+ generation. 888 International Migration Review lived in the United States for 20 years or more.15 The likelihood of partici? pation actually decreases for second generation Latinos and remains low for those in the third generation and higher. So, we see that generational patterns vary across racial/ethnic groups highest participation among long-term immigrants for Latinos, a straight-line pattern among in participation blacks, a tapering off in participation for Asian-Americans, and a second gen? eration advantage among whites. What accounts for these different generational patterns in participation? Looking first at whites, we see that conventional assimilationist accounts of cultural and political adaptation may explain why participation among sec? ond generation citizens is higher than that among first generation citizens. Second generation respondents may be less likely to face societal discrimina? tion and linguistic barriers to participation and may be less likely than first generation citizens to be oriented towards homeland politics. However, "straight-line" assimilationist theories cannot account for why second gener? ation whites are consistently more likely to participate than those in higher generations. One plausible explanation for the second generation advantage among whites is that those in the "3+ generation" may be less attached to political institutions than their parents' generation.16 The second generation advantage may also be driven by a sense of relative deprivation based on dis? crimination against the first generation. In their book Immigrant America, Alejandro Portes and Ruben Rumbaut (1996) note that hostile reactions to first generation immigrants stir "ethnic militancy among subsequent genera? tions... descendants of the first immigrants have gained Voice' and have used 15Pantojaand Segura (2000) find,in theiranalysisof the 1996 TRPI survey,thatCalifornia residentswho recentlynaturalizedhad the highestratesof votingparticipationamong Lati? nos. Their findingsdo not necessarilycontradictours. First,even theTRPI surveyshowsthat immigrantsotherthan those recentlynaturalizedin Californiawere less likelyto vote than the date of naturalizationamong Latinos is not higher-generation respondents.Furthermore, stronglyrelated to the date of arrivalin the United States (Portes and Rumbaut, 1996). Indeed, duringthe mid-1990s, manyof thosewho naturalizedwere long-termresidentswho afterbeinglegalizedundertheImmigrationReformand ControlAct (IRCA) gained eligibility of 1986 (Immigrationand NaturalizationServices,1997). We cannot have an exact compar? ison betweenthe CPS and the TRPI surveysbecause the latterdo not ask questionson the durationof stayin the United States. 16Inhis pioneeringworkon immigrantadaptation,Marcus Lee Hansen (1938, 1987) suggests that second-generationenthusiasmforAmerican institutionsmay springfroma desire to escape fromthe immigrantgeneration'sculturalinfluences.Accordingto Hansen, thisdesire wanes by the thirdgeneration:"What theson wishesto forgetthe grandsonwishesto remem? ber" (1987, p. 15). It is unclear,however,whetherthis resurgencein ethnicityby the third generationleads to a decreasein attachmentto domesticpolitics. Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. 889 it to reaffirm identities attacked previously with so much impunity" (95). Whatever the reason, it is clear that straight-line assimilationist theories can? not account for the generational differences in participation among whites. Just as straight-line assimilationist theories are unable to account for the generational pattern in participation among whites, they are of limited value in accounting for the patterns among non-whites. First, it is important to note that, unlike their white counterparts, many blacks, Asian-Americans and Latinos in the third generation and higher confronted significant barriers to social incorporation and political participation until the 1970s. Despite this legacy of disenfranchisement, blacks in the third generation and higher have been able to reach parity in participation with whites, thanks largely to the mobilizing effects of the civil rights movement. Several studies have shown that, even though blacks faced enormous barriers to participation until the 1960s, the civil rights movement was a powerful mobilizer that enhanced cit? izens' sense of group consciousness and political efficacy (Verba and Nie, 1972; Rosenstone and Hansen, 1993). Asian-Americans and Latinos also faced several institutional barriers to participation until the 1970s, but they did not experience a social movement on the scale of the civil rights move? ment.17 As other scholars have noted, the absence of such broad-scale move? ments among third and higher generation Asian-Americans and Latinos may racial gap in participation for such groups (DeSiet al, 1989).18 The persistence of this racial gap thus challenges conventional assimilationist accounts of immigrant incorporation that would suggest convergence in participation by the third generation. account for the continued pio, 1996a; Duration Uhlaner of Stay in the United States For some racial/ethnic groups, longer stay in the United States among firstgen? eration citizens dramatically increases the likelihood of voting. Among firstgen? eration Latinos, those living in the United States for 20 years or more ("longterm residents") were 39 percent more likely to have voted in the 1996 election than those living in the United States for 10 to 19 years ("medium-term resi? dents"). The difference was even greater in the 1994 midterm election, where long-term Latino residents were twice as likely to have voted as medium-term residents. Similarly, among firstgeneration whites, long-term residents were 43 most of whom were not ^Institutionalbarrierswere especiallystrongforAsian immigrants, able to naturalizeuntil 1952 (Espiritu,1992). 18Indeed,Pantoja and Seguras studyof Latino participation(2000) suggeststhatimmigrants who naturalizedin Californiaduringthe 1990s weremore likelythan native-bornLatinos to be mobilizedin the 1996 election. International Migration Review 890 percent to 70 percent more likely to vote than medium-term residents, depend? ing on the election year.19 For black and Asian-American immigrants, however, there is no clear relationship between duration of stay in the United States and the likelihood of voting. So, even though duration of stay is associated with higher turnout for all racial/ethnic groups in the bivariate analysis (Figure 1), the relationship has a positive slope only for Latinos and whites when control? ling for the various other factors in our full model. Political Experiences in the Home Country Prior political experience with repressive regimes has no consistent effect on voting participation. Looking at the first generation subsamples within each election year, we see that those who emigrate from repressive states do not have higher rates of voting than those who come from democratic states. While some may argue that the experience of immigrants from communist countries is distinct from those that come from other repressive regimes, the results were almost identical when we ran a separate model using "Communist Regime Ori? gin" instead of "Repressive Regime Origin." Just as fleeing from communism may increase the motivation to participate among some groups such as CubanAmericans, it can also lower the likelihood of participation among groups such as Vietnamese-Americans, many of whom harbor a distrust of the political sys? tem (Collett, 2000). Thus, on balance, coming from a communist regime or repressive regime has no net significant effect on voting participation. Finally, given the weak effects of repressive regime origins on participation among first generation respondents, it is perhaps not surprising that such experiences have even weaker effects on the second generation. Linguistic Barriers to Participation As indicated earlier, studies have shown that first generation respondents have lower levels of English proficiency than those in higher generations. We would 19Itis possiblethatpartof thelow voterturnoutamong short-term immigrantresidentsis due to the misreportingof citizenshipstatus,especiallyby undocumentedmigrantswho may reportbeing citizenswhen in facttheyare not. However,our findingthatlongerdurationof as well as Latino immi? stayleads to greaterpoliticalparticipationholds forwhiteimmigrants grants(the formerare much less likelyto be undocumentedthan the latter).Finally,even among Latinos, the relationshipbetween longer duration and greaterparticipationholds across medium-termand long-termimmigrantsforall electionyears.This findingstrongly suggeststhat political socialization is occurringand that the differencein participation of cit? is not due solelyto the misreporting and medium-termimmigrants betweenshort-term izenshipstatusby recentarrivals. Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. 891 therefore expect Spanish-language ballots to increase turnout among first gen? eration Latinos. Our analysis reveals that the presence of Spanish ballots is not sufficient to ensure higher voting among first generation Latinos.20 Some may argue that the coefficient is insignificant because the CPS is conducted entirely in English and therefore does not include those who are most likely to benefit directly from Spanish-language ballots. While the CPS is conducted in Eng? lish, non-English speakers are still included in the survey because respondents who can speak English can report data for household members who do not speak English well. First generation respondents who have another household member report for them tend to have a lower level of English proficiency than those who responses are self-reported (Espenshade and Fu, 1997). We per? formed an alternative test of the effects of Spanish-language ballots by restrict? ing the sample to firstgeneration Latinos who had lower levels of English pro? ficiency by excluding self-reported responses. In results not reported here, we found that even in this restricted sample an individuals residence in areas with Spanish ballots does not increase the likelihood of voting. Our evidence there? fore casts doubt on the importance of Spanish language ballots in stimulating turnout among firstgeneration Latinos.21 Ethnic Residential Concentration Proximity to co-ethnics has weak effects on voting participation, both in the full sample and across immigrant generations. The only exception is among "3+ generation" Asian-Americans, who are consistently more likely to vote in states with high proportions of co-ethnics. It is possible that the proportion of co-ethnics in a respondent s metropolitan area is a better measure of ethnic mobilization than the proportion of co-ethnics in a respondents state.22 However, when we substitute metropolitan concentrations for state concen? trations of co-ethnics, we find the results to be similar. The lack of any sig? nificant effect of ethnic concentration on voting participation thus seems to support the findings of earlier studies among Latinos, in which factors such as residential poverty and in high proportions of noncitizens produce lower than expected mobilization states with high concentration of Latinos (DeSipio, 1996a). 20Evenwhen we modifiedthe interactiontermto account forthe percentof one s lifea Lati? no firstgenerationrespondenthad spent in the U.S., livingin Spanish-ballotareas had no effecton the likelihoodof voting. 21Thisis consistentwith tabulatedreportsfromthe Latino National PoliticalSurvey,which indicatethatthe presenceof Spanish-languageballotshas a modesteffecton turnoutamong Spanish-dominantspeakers(de la Garza et al, 1992). International Migration Review 892 State History of Voting Participation A state's political culture, as measured by its recent history of voting partici? pation, leads to a significant increase in an individuals likelihood to vote. Although the coefficients for the variable are relatively small, their impact is significant when one considers the wide variation in the legacy of voting par? across states. Depending on the election year, those living in a state one standard deviation above the mean level of participa? tion, were 49 percent to 58 percent more likely to have voted than those liv? ticipation Delaware, ing in Tennessee, whose history of voting participation is one standard devi? ation below the mean. What is significant for our study of immigrant voting participation is that this increase is similar across all immigrant generations.23 If, as traditional assimilation theories would suggest, first generation cit? izens are less likely to be incorporated into social and political institutions in the United States, then one would expect them to be the group least affected - even first by their state's political culture. Our results indicate otherwise generation citizens are influenced their state of residence. Mobilization over Anti-Immigrant by the legacy of voting participation in Legislation We hypothesized that anti-immigrant legislation would have a differential We do not impact on voting participation across immigrant generations. have individual-level data on whether respondents were aware of anti-immi? grant legislation or were motivated to vote because of it. However, we do know that anti-immigrant legislation emerged in California in 1994, two years before the passage of national legislation restricting immigrant access to 187, which sought to deny public benefits to a prominent election issue in 1994, and was immigrants, Governor Pete Wilson made it a major part of his re-election campaign. By welfare benefits. Proposition undocumented contrast, anti-immigrant legislation did not enter the national legislative agenda until after the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994 and did not become law until the summer of 1996. Thus, mobilization over anti-immi? grant legislation began in California months before the 1994 general election, 22Forstate-widecontestsand presidentialelections,we assume thatethnicgroups,partyorga? nizationsand candidateorganizationsattemptto mobilizeethnicvotersfromacrossthe state. However,it is likelythattheper-capitacost of ethnicmobilizationwill be lowerin citieswhere thereare higherconcentrationsof co-ethnics. 23Theonly exceptionis forfirstgenerationimmigrantsin 1994. Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. 893 whereas in the rest of the country mobilization did not occur until well after the election. Given this difference in the exposure to anti-immigrant legisla? tion, we would expect first and second generation immigrants in California to be much more likely to vote in 1994 than their generational peers else? where. Furthermore, since anti-immigration legislation was no longer con? fined to California by 1996, we would not expect California residence to have a unique impact on immigrant participation after the 1994 election.24 The evidence from 1994 through 1998 supports our hypothesis regard? ing anti-immigrant legislation and voting behavior. In 1994, first generation immigrants in California were twice as likely to have voted as their genera? tional counterparts in other states that did not have similar measures. Simi? larly, second generation immigrants in California were 83 percent more like? ly to have voted as their generational peers elsewhere. By contrast, "3+ gen? eration" citizens in California were only 32 percent more likely to have voted than their generational peers in other states. By 1996, the unique mobiliza? tion among first and second generation citizens in California seems to have dissipated. After the passage of national legislation in 1996, the enormous "California effect" for first and second generation immigrants disappeared, roughly the same for "3+ generation" respondents.25 whereas it remained Similar results held true for 1998, an election that had a governors race in California like in 1994, but that did not have a ballot initiative related to immigration.26 During that year, the "California effect" was significant only among first and 3+ generation respondents. Even among first generation respondents, the magnitude of the California advantage paled in comparison to that in 1994 - 33 percent in 1998 versus 105 percent in 1994. The results therefore suggest that anti-immigrant legislation in 1994 did indeed have a significant and selective impact on voting among first and second generation citizens in California. While a true test of our hypothesis would require indi? vidual-level data on political knowledge and opinions, these findings suggest a strong link between anti-immigrant legislation and immigrant participa? tion. 24In 1998, the initiativeon bilingualeducation in California(Proposition227) capturedthe attentionof many immigrantvoters,but the measurewas part of the Juneprimary,not the Novemberelection. 25Basedon theiranalysisof theTRPI survey,Pantoja and Segura (2000) arguethatanti-immi? grantlegislationcontinuedto have a positiveimpacton votingin 1996 among recently-nat? uralizedLatinos in California.Our evidence indicatesthat such an impact was not present among the restof the naturalizedpopulation. 26UnlikeProposition187, the 1998 initiativeon bilingualeducation (Proposition227) was held in theJuneprimaryand not the Novemberelection. 894 International Migration Review DISCUSSION This article has examined the influence of immigrant generational status on in U.S. elections. Adding to the accumulating evidence voting participation other recent from studies of immigrant incorporation, our analysis casts doubt on the applicability of straight-line assimilationist theories to contem? porary immigrant adaptation. Immigrant political incorporation proceeds in a different manner for members of different racial/ethnic groups. Blacks are the only group for whom participation increases in a linear manner from the first generation to higher generations. For whites, we find that voting partic? ipation is highest among second generation respondents. As we had suggest? ed earlier, this second generation advantage may be due to higher levels of cynicism among those in the third generation or higher or to a greater sense of relative deprivation among second generation respondents. Further exam? ination of surveys such as the National Election Study or historical studies of particular communities may shed additional light on the reasons why second For Asiangeneration whites have the highest rates of voting participation. is an in there increase after the first Americans, voting participation genera? tion, but it tapers off after the second generation. For Latinos, the likelihood of voting is lower among second and "3+ generation" respondents than The persistence of a racial gap in par? residents. among long-term immigrant challenges assimilationist ticipation among Latinos and Asian-Americans accounts of immigrant incorporation that would suggest a convergence in participation by the third generation. What we find instead is evidence of segmented assimilation, whereby different processes of political socialization produce different generational patterns in participation that do not lead to convergence by the third generation. The durability of racial differences in political participation is not the only limitation of straight-line assimilationist theories of immigrant incorpo? ration. We also find that first generation citizens are just as likely to be influ? enced by their state "political culture" as citizens from higher generations. Furthermore, linguistic barriers may not be the primary obstacles to voting ballots do not among first generation Latinos, because Spanish-language increase the likelihood of participation among first generation citizens. Final? ly, longer stay in the United States leads to greater participation for whites and Latinos of the first generation, but not for blacks or Asian-Americans. Thus, the evidence presented in this study raises serious doubts about the applicability of straight-line assimilationist theories across immigrant genera? tions and across racial/ethnic groups. Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U. S. 895 Our analysis also indicates that prior political experience is not as impor? tant to voting participation as has been previously suggested. Immigrants from communist states or other repressive regimes do not have higher rates of participation than immigrants from democratic countries. Furthermore, sec? ond generation citizens whose parents emigrated from repressive regimes are not more likely to vote than those whose parents came from democratic regimes. Thus, the high level of voting participation among first and second generation Cuban-Americans seems to be an exception that does not hold for immigrants from other repressive regimes. What does lead to higher voting participation among first and second generation immigrants is the presence of anti-immigrant legislation. Immi? grant legislation in 1994 had profound impacts on turnout among first and second generation immigrants in California. Some may argue that the loss of a "California effect" among first and second generation immigrants in 1996 is indicative of the generalized mobilization of a national election and not of immigration issues in particular. However, the fact that the California advan? "3+ generation" respondents through 1998 while it largely disappeared among first and second generation respondents suggests that anti-immigrant legislation in California did indeed have a selective tage persisted among impact on voting among first and second generation immigrants. Taken together, these findings add substantially to our knowledge of the determinants of voting participation and extend in important ways the lessons from more traditional models of voting behavior. Our findings also point to the need for more systematic research on immigrant incorporation and political participation. We need more studies of generational differences in political participation for activities other than voting - attending rallies, writing legislators, working for a campaign, and contributing money for political causes.27 There also needs to be more research on the attitudinal fac? tors and historical processes that have led to a higher level of participation among second generation whites. It remains to be seen whether the patterns and trends noted in this analysis will continue into the 2000 elections and beyond. With record numbers of immigrants applying for naturalization, with the "new" second generation reaching voting age, and with parties and interest groups attempting to mobilize ethnic voters, generational differences in voting participation may not remain the same in the next decade as they have during the 1990s. 27Louis Desipio (1999) providesa preliminaryanalysisof differencesin such activitiesas reflectedin the Latino National PoliticalSurveyand the Citizen ParticipationSurvey. International Migration Review 896 APPENDIX Data on individual characteristics and voting participation were obtained from the Voter Supplement to the November Current Population Survey in 1994, 1996 and 1998. Data sources for other variables are noted below. INDIVIDUAL RESOURCES Age. Series of dummy variables with "Age 18?29" as the omitted category. Income. Series of dummy variables with Family Income below $10,000 as the omitted category. Education. Less than High School as the omitted category. High School Grad: 1 if respondent graduated or obtained GED alent, 0 otherwise. or equiv? Some College. 1 if respondent received associate's degree or did not com? plete college, 0 otherwise. College Grad: 1 if respondent received a bachelor's degree, 0 otherwise. Post Graduate. 1 if respondent received a graduate degree, 0 otherwise. RACE/ETHNICITY AND OTHER DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES white as the omitted category. Race/Ethnicity: Non-Hispanic Black. 1 if black, non-Hispanic, 0 otherwise. Asian: 1 if Asian, non-Hispanic, 0 otherwise. Latino: 1 if respondent of Hispanic Female. 1 if female, 0 otherwise. Origin (any race), 0 otherwise. First Generation: 1 if born outside the United States or outlying territories, 0 otherwise. First Generation 0?9 ys. in the United States: First Generation United States less than ten years. and lived in the ys. in the United States: First Generation and lived in the United States 10 to 19 years. First Generation 20+ ys. in the United States-.First Generation, and lived in the First Generation 10-19 United States more than 20 years. Second Generation: 1 if born in the United States or outlying territories and either parent not born in the United States or outlying territories, 0 other? wise. 3+ generation: 1 if respondent born in the United States with U.S.-born ents, 0 otherwise. par? International Migration Review SOCIAL 897 INCORPORATION Long-Term Resident 1 if respondent has lived in the same address for five years or more, 0 otherwise. Married: 1 if married, 0 if unmarried, widowed, divorced or separated. Employed. 1 if currently employed, 0 otherwise. Self-Report 1 if response if self-reported, 0 otherwise. INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS Liberal Absentee Eligibility. 1 if Universal Eligibility (anyone can vote absen? tee) or Expanded Eligibility (automatic eligibility for citizens of a certain age or who live a certain distance from the polls), 0 otherwise. 1996. Source: Oliver, Early Registration Deadline. Individual lives in state where one has to register at least 21 days prior to election day. Data obtained from the League of Women Voters (www.lwv.org) MOBILIZATION CONTEXTS Presidential Toss-up: 1 if state ranked as "Clinton Slightly Favored," "Dole = 1, 0 otherwise. Source: Associated Press Slightly Favored," or "Toss-up" Research, as reported in the San Francisco Chronicle (Yoachum, 1996). Senate or Governor Toss-up: 1 if state ranked as Highly Vulnerable of Vulner? able by the Congressional Quarterly. During each election season, the Con? gressional Quarterly comes up with a survey of Senate and Governor Races based on opinion polls and surveys of candidate and party organizations (Sources: Babson and Groppe, 1994; Cassata, 1998; Cranford, 1994; Foerstel, 1998; Greenblatt, 1996; Greenblatt and Wells, 1996). OTHER VARIABLES From Repressive Regime. 1 if respondent came from a repressive regime at the time of entry to the United States, 0 otherwise. Regime coded as "repressive" if it was ranked as partly free' or not free' by Freedom House. Freedom rankings of countries began in 1972. For years prior to 1972, coun? tries were coded as repressive if they were communist countries or if they were ranked as repressive in 1972, and continued to be repressive for more than 75 House percent of the years since 1972. domhouse.org/ratings) Source: Freedom House (http://www.free- International Migration Review 898 Parents from Repressive Regime. 1 if one or both of respondent's parents are from Repressive Regime, 0 otherwise. In Spanish Ballot Area: 1 if respondent lives in a County, State or Metropoli? tan Area with Spanish language ballots. Source: United States General Accounting Office, 1997. % State Black, % State Asian, % State Latino: State ethnic proportions are reports that take into account the total state population. based on Census Bureau of the Census, "1990 to 1998 Annual Time Series of State Population Estimates By Race and Hispanic Origin." http://www.cenSource: U.S. sus.gov/population/www/estimates/st_srh.html State Voting History. Average of percent voting in each state from 1972-1992. Source: Federal Election Commission (http://www.fec.gov/ votregis/turn/ turn.htm) California: 1 if respondent is resident of California, 0 otherwise. APPENDIX on individual characteristics and voting participation were obtained from the V ber Current Population Survey in 1994, 1996 and 1998. Data sources for other vari Data 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ Income: $10,000-$25,000 $25,000-$50,000 $50,000-$75,000 $75,000+ Not Reported Education: HighSchoolGrad SomeCollege CollegeGrad PostGraduate Resident Long-Term Married Employed Female LiberalAbsentee Eligibility Deadline EarlyRegistration Senate/Governor Toss-up White, lstGen<10ys. 1stGen 10 - 19 ys. 1stGen > 19 ys. SecondGeneration Age: TABLE 1 Logistic RegressionEstimatesof Voting in the 1994 Election Secon FirstGeneration FullSample_ Beta Std.Err. Std.Err. Beta Beta 0.l446c -0.090 0.0254 0.1353 -0.3717c 0.0266 0.1628 0.4881c 0.1336 0.2543 0.1462 0.2344 0.5901 0.0310 0.7812c 0.1629 0.9391 0.9721c 1.3030c 0.0353 1.175 0.0395 1.0225c 0.1772 1.5333c 0.0486 0.1941 0.8923 1.0854c 0.9350c 0.1504 0.3376 0.2728c 0.0329 0.6837c 0.4261 0.1541 0.4079c 0.0337 0.6726c 0.6224c 0.6202c 0.1751 0.5591 0.0386 0.8394c 0.1785 0.4663 0.6243c 0.0423 0.0426 0.1809 0.3735 0.3928c 0.3499a 0.1174 0.5574 0.0274 0.4367c 0.7H7C 0.8426c 0.1283 1.004 1.2303c 0.0300 0.1456 1.364 1.2331c 1.7460c 0.0358 1.8116C 0.1779 2.0776c 0.0473 1.779 0.0848 0.0185 0.5917c 0.7131 0.7731c 0.0931 0.4988c 0.0191 0.3255c 0.5756 0.0222 0.1036 -0.136 0.2434b 0.0658c 0.0868 0.0817 0.0491c 0.0176 0.1709b 0.0214 0.1176 -0.1903 -0.051 0.0671c 0.1417 0.0292 0.0254 -0.0519b -0.0456 0.0188 0.1268 0.0996 0.1922c 0.3628 0.4074 -1.7606c 0.4137 -1.6857c 0.1706 -0.4320b -0.4292b 0.1717 -0.0346 0.0650 0.2217c 0.0370 Black, lstGen<10ys. 1stGen 10 - 19 ys. 1stGen > 19 ys. SecondGeneration ThirdandHigherGen Asian, lstGen<10ys. 1stGen 10-19 ys. lstGen>19ys. SecondGeneration ThirdandHigherGen Latino, lstGen<10ys. 1stGen 10 - 19 ys. lstGen>19ys. SecondGeneration ThirdandHigherGen FromRepressive Regime ParentfromRepressive Regime In SpanishBallotArea Latinox In SpanishBallotArea State% Black Blackx State% Black State% Asian Asianx State% Asian State% Latino Latinox State% Latino StateVotingHistory California Constant pseudoR2 ap< 0.1,bp< 0.05,cp<.01 TABLE 1 (Continued) Logistic RegressionEstimatesof Voting in the 1994 Election Secon FirstGeneration FullSample_ Beta Beta Std.Err. Beta Std.Err. 0.8448 0.8901 0.5536 0.1986 0.6860 0.2862 -0.1285 0.3423 -0.2248 0.6578 0.3226 0.2927 -0.348 0.0484 0.2590 0.0641 0.1621b 0.3654 0.3681 -1.5244c -1.5680c 0.1707 -1.1504c 0.1511 -1.1598c 0.1702 -0.9199c -0.854lc 0.1530 -0.938 0.1699 -0.7442c 0.1821 -0.7847c 0.4177 -1.4736c 0.3889 -1.3628c 0.2663 0.2129 -0.57353 -0.7452c 0.2249 0.1998 -0.0538 0.1565 -0.710 -0.4430c 0.1301 0.1001 -0.5037c 0.1728 -0.1092 -0.2447b 0.1147 -0.022 -0.1641 0.0640 0.1683 -0.0433 0.0268 -0.l429 0.1078 0.0213 -0.0485a 0.1426 0.2044 0.0858 0.2521c 0.0851 0.0096 0.0005 0.0023 -0.0360c 0.0015 0.0044 0.0175 0.0384 0.0032 -0.0305 0.0128 0.0038 0.0025 -0.0196 0.0056b 0.0241a 0.0132 0.0138 0.0133c 0.0038 0.0014 0.0017 0.0053c -0.0158b 0.0078 0.0104 0.0087 0.0039 -0.0093 0.0056 0.0022 0.0310 0.0130 -0.0436c 0.0267c 0.1821 0.6057 0.3303c 0.0473 0.7185c -3.846 0.8791 -4.1964c 0.1475 0.8698 0.1556 0.1488 3,952 87:596 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80 + Income: 30-39 $10,000-$25,000 $25,000450,000 $50,000-$75,000 $75,000+ Not Reported Education: HighSchoolGrad SomeCollege CollegeGrad PostGraduate Resident Long-Term Married Employed Female LiberalAbsentee Eligibility Deadline EarlyRegistration Presidential Toss-up Senate/Governor Toss-up 1stGen < 10 ys. White, 1stGen 10 - 19 ys. 1stGen > 19 ys. SecondGeneration 1stGen < 10 ys. Black, 1stGen 10- 19 ys. 1stGen > 19 ys. SecondGeneration ThirdandHigherGen TABLE 2 Logistic RegressionEstimatesof Voting in the 1996 Election FirstGeneration FullSample Secon Beta Beta s.e. Beta 0.1627 0.1219 -0.131 0.1023c 0.0267 0.0282 0.2005 0.1236 0.2743 0.3791c 0.6416 0.6897c 0.0328 0.2501a 0.1436 1.165 1.2274c 0.0393 0.7711c 0.1559 0.1820 1.402 0.0432 0.8897c 1.3438c 0.1993 0.7683 0.9179c 0.7212c 0.0532 0.1681C 0.1527 0.3409 0.0366 0.0357 0.1509 0.4653 0.3481c 0.0763 0.0364 0.1689 0.4834 0.0413 0.1754 0.5905c 0.1826 0.6986 0.4969c 0.7401c 0.0455 0.0440 0.1795 0.3101 -0.4115b 0.3918c 0.1150 0.5989 0.0283 0.3561c 0.6948c 0.1255 1.209 1.3348c 0.0314 0.9757c 0.1351 1.784 1.8946c 1.0749c 0.0383 0.1872 1.6098c 2.2131 2.3005c 0.0551 0.6064c 0.0854 0.3202c 0.7785 0.0199 0.0900 0.5070 0.0205 0.1194 0.4105C 0.0981 0.0382 0.0536b -0.0199 0.0236 0.0802 0.1620C 0.0188 0.0755 0.l670 0.0181 0.1230 0.0432a 0.1277 0.0237 0.0000 0.1496 -0.1417 0.0378 0.0278 0.1201 0.0411 -0.1604 0.1263 0.0245 0.1059 0.0971 -0.0330 0.0213 -0.1555 -1.5110c 0.2687 -1.4789c 0.2696 0.1542 -0.6278c -0.4998c 0.1557 0.0317 0.0769 0.0446 0.2906c 0.8005 -0.6928 0.6803 -1.3653a 0.46l2a 0.0431 0.4756 0.2859 0.5453 0.1131 -0.1367 0.2932 0.0668 0.3762 0.2470 0.3771c 0.0654 1stGen < 10 ys. 1stGen 10- 19 ys. 1stGen > 19 ys. SecondGeneration Thirdand HigherGen 1stGen < 10 ys. Latino, 1stGen 10- 19 ys. 1stGen > 19 ys. SecondGeneration Thirdand HigherGen FromRepressive Regime ParentfromRepressive Regime In SpanishBallotArea Latinox In SpanishBallotArea State% Black Blackx State% Black State% Asian Asianx State% Asian State% Latino Latinox State% Latino StateVotingHistory California Constant pseudoR2 Asian, : 0.05, :.01 TABLE 2 (Continued) Logistic RegressionEstimatesof Voting in the 1996 Election FullSample FirstGeneration Secon Beta Beta s.e. Beta 0.2800 -0.6707b -0.6250b 0.2965 0.1410 -0.9160C -0.8858c 0.1636 0.1642 -1.0908c -0.8672c 0.1762 -0.7747c 0.1547 -0.806 0.1890 -0.8257c -0.1983 0.2892 -0.3041 0.2968 0.1818 -0.0130 0.0357 0.2457 0.6156C 0.3157b 0.1613 0.2322 -0.1594 0.1245 0.4331 0.0947 -0.2159b -0.0078 0.1127 -0.1850 0.1584 0.0660 -0.1481 0.0081 -0.0051 0.1573 -0.0871 -0.0691b 0.0320 0.1205 -0.l643 0.1141 0.1065 0.0513 0.2296 -0.157 0.0020 0.0080 0.0046 0.0058c 0.0017 0.0040 -0.028 0.0032 0.0156 0.0295 -0.0042a 0.0140 0.0019 0.0025 -0.001 0.0114C 0.0001 0.0148 0.0002 0.0038 0.0028 0.0018 0.0102 0.0086 0.0103 0.0110 0.0003 -0.0230b 0.0045 0.0073 0.0124 0.0023 0.0267c 0.0295b 0.0255 0.1682 0.0493 0.0984 0.2987c 0.1954 -2.1104c -3.4555c 0.1530 0.7919 -3.278 0. 1435 0.1047 76,656 3,811 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80 + Income: $10,000-$25,000 $25,000-$50,000 $50,000-$75,000 $75,000+ Not Reported Educai HighSchoolGrad SomeCollege CollegeGrad PostGraduate Resident Long-Term Married Employed Female LiberalAbsentee Eligibility Deadline EarlyRegistration Senate/Governor Toss-up lstGen< lOys. White, 1stGen 10- 19 ys. 1stGen > 19 ys. SecondGeneration 1stGen < 10 ys. Black, 1stGen 10- 19 ys. 1stGen > 19 ys. SecondGeneration ThirdandHigherGen TABLE 3 Logistic RegressionEstimatesof Voting in the 1998 Election Secon FirstGeneration FullSample Beta Beta Beta s.e. 0.1282 -0.0004 -0.008 0.0279 0.1405C 0.2628b 0.2446 0.1209 0.0276 0.4687c 0.1324 0.3803 0.0308 0.7314C 0.7648c 0.1415 1.177 0.7824c 1.3428c 0.0371 0.0412 0.9869c 0.1653 1.292 1.5512c 0.2218 0.44l4b 1.096lc 0.0516 0.6925 0.0418 0.1728 0.3248 -0.29303 0.1805c 0.1661 0.3310c -0.1095 0.3865 0.0413 0.0448 0.1827 0.4714 -0.1273 0.4559c 0.1850 0.4974c 0.0436 0.4969 0.0463 0.1861 -0.2210 0.2217 0.336lc 0.0465 0.1141 0.6266c 0.4716 0.0300 0.5166C 0.1241 1.021 1.1819c 0.0321 0.7766c 1.1182c 0.1366 1.257 1.5780c 0.0369 0.0468 0.1674 1.727 1.9671c 1.4518c 0.0835 0.7284c 0.6709c 0.7185 0.0195 0.0202 0.0869 0.4894c 0.3377c 0.5156 -0.18183 0.0988 -0.202 -0.0047 0.0236 0.0110 0.0648 0.0784 0.0183 0.0522c 0.1120 0.0220 0.0496 0.0920c 0.1136 -0.050 0.0269 -0.1505 0.1516 -0.1158c 0.228l 0.0933 0.3204c 0.4235c 0.0194 -1.0001c 0.3043 0.3130 -0.9554c 0.1810 0.1838 -0.5186c -0.4355b -0.1581b 0.0692 0.2016c 0.0414 -0.3421 0.5766 -0.4889 0.4934 0.3674 -0.4487a -0.1585 0.2558 0.3451 0.0659 -0.2341 0.1970 -0.630 -0.1213 0.2015 0.2247c 0.0645 1stGen < 10 ys. 1stGen 10-19 ys. 1stGen > 19 ys. SecondGeneration Thirdand HigherGen 1stGen < 10 ys. Latino, 1stGen 10 - 19 ys. lstGen>19ys. SecondGeneration Thirdand HigherGen FromRepressive Regime ParentfromRepressive Regime In SpanishBallotArea Latinox In SpanishBallotArea State% Black Blackx State% Black State% Asian Asianx State% Asian State% Latino Latinox State% Latino StateVotingHistory California Constant pseudoR2 n_75,485 ap< 0.1,bp< 0.05,cp < .01 Asian, TABLE 3 (Continued) Logistic RegressionEstimatesof Voting in the 1998 Election Secon FirstGeneration FullSample Beta Beta s.e. Beta -1.1327c 0.3598 -1.3368c 0.3490 -1.2921c 0.1815 -1.546lc 0.1588 -1.2426c 0.1542 0.1291 -0.9528c -1.1016C -1.336 0.1569 -0.6367c 0.1795 -1.4179C -1.4966c 0.4005 0.3778 -0.4828b 0.2483 -0.5240b 0.1933 0.2062 -0.0913 -0.1132 0.1376 -0.618 -0.3978c 0.1253 -0.3060c 0.0903 0.1470 0.1020 0.2071 -0.0051 0.0618 -0.096 -0.3829c 0.1471 -0.1363b 0.1084 0.0406 0.1090 0.0584 0.0277 0.1742 0.2087 0.0543 0.1875a 0.0991 0.0l61b 0.0016 0.0022 0.0077 0.0053 0.0185 0.0297 0.0171c 0.0007 0.0031 0.0114 0.0282b 0.0098 0.0027 0.0037 0.0212c 0.0178 0.0025 0.0125 0.0038 -0.0028 0.0016 0.0077 0.0075 0.0038b 0.0046 0.0048 0.0092 0.0023 0.0039 0.0104 0.0021 0.0364c 0.0375 0.0325c 0.0486 0.1716 0.1711 0.2827a 0.1825c 0.1444 -3.8551c 0.7026 -4.215 -4.4790c 0.1375 0.1473 4,177 Immigrant Incorporation and Political Participation in the U.S. 905 REFERENCES Abramson,P. and W Claggett 1992 "The Qualityof RecordKeepingand Racial Differencesin ValidatedTurnout,"Journal ofPolitics,54(3):871-882. Arvizu,J. R. and F. C. 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