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Introduction
Brexit Brief, published by the IIEA’s UK Project Group,
covers developments in the on-going debate in the
United Kingdom – and between the UK and the other
EU Member States – on the UK’s negotiations over its
membership of the Union.
The Brief seeks to provide up-to-date information on
the progress and content of the UK re-negotiation and
on relevant statements and policy positions – of key
individual players, EU institutions, national governments,
political parties, business interests and civil society actors.
Particular attention is given to identification of references
– website coordinates, book titles, official publications,
media coverage etc.
The Brief is part of a wider communications programme
covering the work of the IIEA’s UK Project Group –
involving commentaries, speeches, texts and event reports
– which will be highlighted on the Institute website.
Section One: Brexit State of Play
The UK referendum campaign is underway – promising
four months of political wrangling, as the main campaign
groups on both sides of the argument attempt to sway the
UK electorate in their favour.
Prime Minister Cameron returned from the Brussels
European Council meeting on 18-19 February with
what he described as ‘Britain’s new settlement with the
European Union’. Two days of protracted negotiations –
in plenary and in bilateral encounters – resulted in
a complex set of documents, incorporating a formal
Decision and six Statements and Declarations which were
designed to address the four main areas of policy concern
for the UK.
David Cameron’s position
Presenting his new settlement to the House of Commons,
the Prime Minister took on many of the arguments of the
‘leave’ side, notably those of the Mayor of London, and
made it clear that he would campaign vigorously across
the country on the basis of the simple argument that
Britain would be safer and stronger by remaining inside a
reformed European Union.”
In particular, he dealt with the suggestion that if the UK
voted to leave there could be a second renegotiation and a
second referendum:
I want to spell out this point carefully because it is
important. If the British people vote to leave there is only
one way to bring that about, namely to trigger Article 50
of the Treaties and begin the process of exit and the British
people would expect that to start straight away. And we
should be clear that this process is not an invitation to rejoin; it is a process for leaving. I have known a number of
couples who have begun divorce proceedings but I do not
know any who have begun divorce proceedings in order to
renew their marriage vows.
The UK Government also published a policy paper, entitled
The best of both worlds: the United Kingdom’s special status
in a reformed European Union. This document, published
under the terms of the European Union Referendum Act
2015 to satisfy the duty to provide information, deals in
detail with the content and implications of the Brussels
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settlement but also puts forward arguments likely to
figure in the Prime Minister’s personal campaign, based
on the assertion that “leaving Europe would threaten our
economic and our national security.”
The UK Cabinet
The majority of the UK Cabinet subsequently endorsed
the Brussels package and agreed that the government’s
position was to recommend that Britain remains in a
reformed European Union and that the referendum will
be held on Thursday 23 June 2016. The Prime Minister
announced that, from that moment, individual Cabinet
Ministers would have the freedom to campaign, in
a personal capacity, for the UK to leave the EU. As he
was speaking, six Ministers left No.10 Downing Street
for the headquarters of the Vote Leave campaign group
where they began to make their case for leaving the EU.
They were to be joined within two days by the Mayor of
London, Boris Johnson, and then by the former Tory Party
Leader, Michael Howard and the former Labour Party
Foreign Secretary and founder of the Social Democrats,
David Owen.
Initial reactions
The final package of reforms received a less than
enthusiastic reception in the British media. The Europhile
Observer commented that “it does not represent a
fundamental shift in Britain’s relationship with the EU,
but that was never on the table” while the Eurosceptic
papers – Telegraph, Daily Mail – reflected the view of Vote
Leave that “David Cameron always wanted to campaign
to stay in the EU so he only asked for very minor changes.
He will now declare victory but it is an entirely hollow
one.”
The likely tone of the referendum campaign was set in a
dispute over the legal status of the Brussels settlement. The
Justice Secretary, Michael Gove, one of the six, claimed
that the deal could be overruled by the European Court of
Justice. He was backed by a number of lawyers, including
a Junior Minister, Dominic Raab, whose legal opinions
were released.
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The view from abroad was best summed up by the Polish
Institute of International Affairs, who commented that:
The agreement […] brings a certain comforting experience
to the EU. It proves that 28 very different states joined
by common interests are capable of conducting a
comprehensive, self-critical review of their co-existence
and agree on improvements, which, although not very
substantial – still constitute a refreshing facelift. And now
that the deal is sealed, all eyes are set on the British voters,
who soon will be making an assessment of not only the
credibility of the renegotiation but also the broader pros
and cons of EU membership.
Section Two: The Evolving Debate
In her first comprehensive statement on the referendum
debate, the newly appointed Labour Party Shadow Europe
Minister, Pat Glass MP, described herself as spokesperson
“for a political party that is absolutely united on this
issue.” She argued that Britain’s future safety and stability
lies in the country remaining at the heart of Europe and
pointed to the importance of working together with other
EU countries on complex global issues such as climate
change, international crime and terrorism and mass
migration. She called for a strong campaign to remain
in the EU, where the UK could “continue to build a
mutually beneficial future with our European partners.”
The final Communique of the G20 meeting of finance
ministers and central bank governors in Shanghai on 26
February 2016, warned about the downside risks and
vulnerabilities associated with the UK leaving the EU. The
US Treasury Secretary, Jacob Lew, remarked that “we see
a stronger UK, a stronger EU, a stronger global economy
and a more secure world with the UK in the EU.”
The General Secretary of the TUC, Frances O’Grady,
has warned that workers’ rights are being forgotten
in the Brexit debate: “The big question that the Brexit
campaign has to answer is what would happen to rights at
work, from maternity leave, to equal pay, to holidays, to
consultation on redundancies if we left the EU.”
Downing Street responded by lining out the opinions of
Attorney General, Jeremy Wright, and his predecessor,
Dominic Grieve. The Attorney General, in a most
unusual step, released the text of the legal opinion he had
provided for the Government, declaring the Brussels text
to be watertight in law.
As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
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The Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, who is
campaigning for Brexit, has rejected the suggestion that
UK withdrawal from the EU would require border checks
to be reinstated arguing that there was “every reason
to suggest” that the UK and Ireland could maintain
free movement under the Common Travel Area which
existed before the two countries entered the European
Community in 1973.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Charlie Flanagan TD,
welcomed the positive conclusion to the European
Council and indicated that, as the debate in the UK
intensifies Ireland will continue to play a positive and
constructive role where appropriate opportunities arise:
“The Irish Government is strongly of the view that that
the UK should remain in the Union and contributing to
that outcome was the Government’s overall objective in
the negotiations leading up to today’s agreement, and will
remain so in the months ahead.”
Opinion polls
A Survation/Mail on Sunday opinion poll, the first since
the Brussels deal, indicated that 48 percent of Britons did
not want to leave the EU, 33 percent did and 19 percent
were still undecided.
New data from the latest British Social Attitudes survey
shows that two thirds of the British public can be
considered Eurosceptic; 65% either want the UK to
leave the EU (22%) or for the EU’s powers to be reduced
(43%). This Euroscepticism is reflected in majority
support for radical changes to the way the EU works. Two
thirds (68%) favour reducing the ability of EU migrants
to access welfare benefits and a majority (60%) also favour
reducing the extent to which the EU regulates business.
However, in spite of this deep concern about Britain’s EU
membership, when given a straight choice, twice as many
think that Britain should ‘continue’ to be an EU member
(60%) as believe the country should ‘withdraw’ (30%).
For scepticism to translate into support for withdrawal,
voters need also to be convinced of the economic case for
leaving. And at present most are not.
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Section Three: Relevant Research and Events
IIEA Publications and Events
Britain and Europe: The Endgame - A Postscript
A new study updating the analysis in the Institute’s
March 2015 book. Edited by Brendan Keenan and
Andrew Gilmore, the study includes chapters by Brendan
Halligan, Blair Horan, Paul Gillespie, John Bradley, Tom
Arnold and Andrew Gilmore. The postscript can be
downloaded here.
An ongoing series of blogs on the topic of Brexit can be
found on the IIEA website.
Upcoming Events
The UK referendum and its consequences. Charles
Grant, Director of the Centre for European Reform
In this address to the IIEA, Charles Grant will outline
the factors which are helping and hindering both the
In and Out campaigns in Britain ahead of the UK’s EU
referendum on 23 June 2016. He will address the impact
of a British exit from the EU on the UK, the EU and on
the wider world. Finally, he will look at the politics of the
campaign as a whole, showing the multifaceted challenges
which confront David Cameron’s government.
Past Events
The British Business Vision for a Reformed EU. Paul
Drechsler, President of the Confederation of British
Industry.
Mr. Drechsler analysed the benefits and drawbacks of
EU membership for business, examine the alternatives
and set out a business vision for a reformed EU, which
works better for firms in the UK, Ireland and across the
continent. A transcript and audio from the event can be
found here.
As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
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The UK at the crossroads – Britain’s Brexit debate. Pat
McFadden, Labour MP and former Shadow Minister for
Europe
In this speech Pat McFadden, a campaigner for Britain
to stay in the EU, set out the background for the Brexit
debate, the implications of leaving and what this debate
will say about Britain’s role in the world. Video and audio
from the event can be found here.
Other Activities
IIEA Director General, Tom Arnold, and John McGrane
Director General of the British Irish Chamber of
Commerce, testified to the Northern Ireland Affairs
Committee of the House of Commons on 10 February
2016. A detailed written submission was also made to the
Committee on the implications of a Brexit for Northern
Ireland.
Recent Third Party Events and Publications
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Section Four:
Reading
Background Material and Further
Background Material
UK Government
Policy Paper. ‘The best of both
worlds: the United Kingdom’s special status in a reformed
European Union’. (https://www.gov.uk/government/
publications/the-best-of-both-worlds-the-unitedkingdoms-special-status-in-a-reformed-european-union)
House of Commons.
European Council. Hansard
Debates for 22 February 2016. (http://www.publications.
parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm160222/
debtext/160222-0001.htm)
Centre for European Reform. ‘Deal done: Now for the
hard work’. 20 February 2016.(http://www.publications.
parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/cm160222/
debtext/160222-0001.htm)
Open Europe. ‘What did the UK achieve in its EU
renegotiation?’ (http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/
what-did-the-uk-achieve-in-its-eu-renegotiation/)
The Final Brexit Question: The known Plan A to remain or
the unknown Plan B to leave
Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) A
Win-Win Situation? Strategic File No.3, February 2016.
(http://www.pism.pl/Publications/PISM-Strategic-Files/
PISM-Strategic-File-no-3-84)
Michael Emerson, Senior Associate Research Fellow
at CEPS, a Brussels-based think-tank, examines the
alternatives to EU membership, in the event that Britain
votes to leave. The publication can be downloaded from
the CEPS website.
Prime Minister David Cameron Statement following
Cabinet meeting on EU settlement, 20 February
2016 (https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pmsstatement-following-cabinet-meeting-on-eu-settlement20-february-2016)
Events
European Council
European Council meeting –
18 and 19 February 2016 – Conclusions. (http://
www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/europeancouncil/2016/02/18-19/)
Publications
European Movement Ireland held another in its series
of ‘Reform and Referendum’ conferences on 22 February
2016. Transcripts of presentations are available online.
The British-Irish Chamber of Commerce held its annual
conference in Dublin on 19 February 2016 focusing on
the Brexit question. A collection of media coverage of the
event can be found on the BIC website.
Prime Minister David Cameron Statement on UKEU renegotiation, House of Commons, 3 February
2016.
(https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/
prime-ministers-statement-on-eu-renegotiation-3february-2016)
House of Commons UK-EU Renegotiation. Hansard Debates
for 3 February 2016. (http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/
cm201516/cmhansrd/cm160203/debtext/160203-0001.htm )
House of Commons Parliamentary Sovereignty and EU
Renegotiations. Backbench Business, 4 February 2016. (http://
www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201516/cmhansrd/
cm160204/debtext/160204-0002.htm)
As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.
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John Springford ‘Brexit and EU Regulation: A bonfire
of the vanities?’ Centre for European Reform. (http://
www.cer.org.uk/publications/archive/policy-brief/2016/
brexit-and-eu-regulation-bonfire-vanities)
European Commission
Communication: Better
Regulation for better results – An EU agenda, May
2015.
COM(2015) 215 final
(http://ec.europa.
eu/smart-regulation/better_regulation/documents/
com_2015_215_en.pdf )
Philip Stephens ‘Hard interests battle potent emotion
over Britain and Europe’ Financial Times, 21 January
2016. (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/69b25512-bdf011e5-9fdb-87b8d15baec2.html)
Charles Moore ‘The PM’s tricks are almost over – now
the choice is ours, not his’ Daily Telegraph, 6 February
2016.
(http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/
eureferendum/12143491/I-feel-such-a-fool-for-givingDavid-Cameron-the-benefit-of-the-doubt-on-his-EUdeal.html)
Steve Peers EU Law Analysis. Article 50TEU: The uses
and abuses of the process of withdrawing from the EU.
(http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.ie/2014/12/article-50-teuuses-and-abuses-of.html)
Further Reading
Jean-Claude Piris
The Lisbon Treaty: A Legal and
Political Analysis. Cambridge University Press.
Neil MacCormick Questioning Sovereignty. Law, State
and Nation in the European Commonwealth. Oxford
University Press.
John Peet and Anton La Guardia Unhappy Union.
How the euro crisis – and Europe – can be fixed. The
Economist and Profile Books.
David Charter Europe: In or Out? Everything You
Need To Know. Biteback Publishing.
Official Journal of the European Union. Charter of
Fundamental Rights of the European Union. (www.eurlex.europa.eu)
As an independent forum, the Institute does not express any opinions of its own. The views expressed in the article are the sole
responsibility of the author.