Polytechnic University of Catalonia Department of Urban Management and Valuation
Proposal of master thesis
Research on Relationship Between Urban Expansion and
Migration of Shanghai
Student：Dou Xiao
Tutor： Blanca Arellano-Ramos
March 2014
Contents
- Introduction
- Hypothesis
- Objectives
- Literature Review
- Methodology
- Work Plan
- References
Introductio
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Hypothesis
Objectives
Literature
Review
Methodology Work Plan
References
With the development of the global economy,
urban growth considering the city center as
basic development point has expanded all
around the world, for example,New York
City and Los Angeles Metropolitan Areas,
London Metropolitan Area,Tokyo
metropolitan area, Beijing-tianjin-hebei
metropolitan area and so on.
The Nine World Regions and the 120 Cities in the Global Sample of
Cities, 1990-2000
Source: Lincon Institute of Land Policy. http://www.lincolninst.edu/
At the same time, population migration
has become more and more popular.
People try to move to other regions for
jobs and opportunities. Actually, migration
has become the most important reasons for
population increase.
the world population distribution
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population.
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Basic situation of Shanghai in the history
GDP
（100million）
2010
1514.52
23.0266
14875.8
2000
857.94
16.086
4098.64
1990
422.45
13.34
511.74
The expansion proportion of Shanghai city in 1994-2006
However, urban sprawl gradually controlled the
expansion and growth of the city, and traffic
congestion, environmental destruction and land
reduction have cuased more and more concerns;
growth rete
compared with 1997/
％
12.396
0.5
0.000
2002
24.583
12.187
12.187
2003
27.319
2.736
14.923
2006
35.015
7.696
22.619
proportion of the
total area/％
1994
11.895
1997
PROPORTION
PERCENTAGE AMONG TOTAL
Source: http://biz.163.com/special/c/00021ESL/chengshikuozh.html
2006
2004
2002
2000
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1994
PERCENTAGE(%)
Right now, governments and citizens began to
realize the importance of "Preservation" and
"Conservation" as well as utilization of
underground space.
growth rate/％
Year
1998
After that, governments and administrations
tried to expand the development areas of
Shanghai, mainly changed some counties nearby
into districts, constructed satellite towns;
population
（million）
1996
Prior to the reform and opening up policy of
China, main development of Shanghai was
restricted by the Concession;
Built-up area
（km2）
YEAR
The trend of Shanghai urban expansion’s proportion in different years
Introductio
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Sustainable, high-speed, ultra-conventional development of the social economy accelerated China's
urbanization, most of Chinese cities witnessed rapid development period with the characteristic of
urban expansion. Taking Shanghai for example, from 1950 to 1970s, the built-up areas expanded
3.96km2 anually; from 1970s to 1998, expansion areas was 5.02km2; this number reached to
21.89km2 anually during 1988 to 1993; and 37.79 km2 annually during 1993 to 1998.
As one of the largest city in China, Shanghai attracts millions of population from other areas for
jobs, opportunities and better life. The household population reached to 10.98 million in 1978 from
5.03 million in 1949, and this number increased 0.2 million in 15 years, and more than 14 million in
2010.
Generally, these guadually increased built-up areas offered spaces for migration and the
development of industries and offices. In turn, growth of the population and social economy
promoted the extension of the city areas. Researches and analysis on the relationship of urban
expansion and population migration can help to master the substance for the city development and
lay the fundation for the harmonious development of cities and population.
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Shanghai (2010)
Shanghai sits at the mouth of the Yangtze River in the middle portion
of the Chinese coast. The municipality borders the provinces of
Jiangsu and Zhejiang to the north, south and west, and is bounded to
the east by the East China Sea.
Shanghai is administratively equal to a province and is divided into
17 county-level divisions: 16 districts and one county.
Source: http://www.shanghai.gov.cn/shanghai/node27118/index.html.
References
Size:
6340 km2
Population:
22.65 million
Density:
6200 population/
km2
In-migration: 1.72 million
Out-migration: 0.5 million
Source: Demographia World Urban Areas (BuiltUp Urban Areas or World Agglomerations)
Introductio
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Source: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy. http://www.lincolninst.edu/
The urban expansion of Shanghai from 1810 to 2000 and land cover in 2010
References
Introductio
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1946
1986
Objectives
Literature
Review
1953
1999
Methodology Work Plan
1959
2011
References
Introductio
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Introductio
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When it comes to Shanghai‘s
population and migration, we can
easily see that the population
presents a linear growth from the
establishment of China, and this
tendency is steady since 1960.
The second graph shows the trends
of the in-migration, out-migration
and mechanical growth of
Shanghai since 1950.
Before 1978 (the reform and openingup of China), three of these elements
fluctuated, and there wasn't any
reguality; but from 1978 to now,
gradually decreased out-migration
and steadily increased in-migration
dominant the tendency, and the
mechanical growth was positive.
Source: State Statistical Bureau and Ministry of Labor and Social Security (SSB–MLSS) of China[J]. China labor statistical yearbook 1997-2010 .
Introductio
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On the surface, the migration is positively associated with urban expansion in Shanghai, when migration
increased, urban space expanded. As a result, we can confirm that they certainly have some relationship
inside.
Actually, population flow is one of the most important factors for the city development, and it is easy to
find out that urban spatial expansion is one form for urban development and growth, and migration is also
can be considered as population flow, so we can get the conclusion that population migration is essential
for urban expansion, they are in close contact with each other.
urban spatial
expansion
urbanization
and urban
growth
?
migration
population
flow
But what kind of relationship do they have
inside? The article is going to take Shanghai
as example to do some deep discussion on
these relationships.
Introductio
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general objective
Based on the rapid development we try to investigate the inside
relationship between population migration and urban expansion in order
to determine the right way for urbanization and try to find out some ideas
and suggestions for strenthening the managements of floating population
and help the governments for better population policies.
Introductio
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build some basic models to
explain the relationship
between population
migration and urban
expansion
References
using historical data to
identify the inside
connections between them
quantitively
tracing the historical evolution of the urban expansion
process of Shanghai as well as the changes of floating
population of different periods
analyzing the relationship between migration and urban
expansion based on the connections of population flow and
urban development, try to find out the rational size for the
urban expansion for a city and make some policies and
managements for the population migration.
special objectives
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Few articles and books have explained the relationship between migration and urban expansion
directly, since urban expansion is one of the most important elements for urban growth and
development, we can introduce the fommer connection to the connection between population flow
and urban development. According to the existing papers, two research aspects about the conncection
can be concluded: theories and models, as well as empirical researches.
(1) theories and models
The world is steadily becoming more urban, as people move to cities and towns in search of
employment, educational opportunities and higher standards of living. Some are driven away from
land that, for whatever reason, can no longer support them. By the year 2005, urban areas are
expected to be home to more than half of the world’s people.
Theories of urban expansion and urban growth
Inner city structure theory
Urban Development Theory
concentric zone theory
Growth pole theory
Fan theory
Core-peripheral structure
Multi-core theory
Pole-axis theory
Regional structure theory
Megalopolis theory
Source: Xu Dongyun, Zhang Lei, Lan Rongjuan. Theoretical Review of urban expansion[J]. 2009.
Introductio
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Theories of migration
The earliest model about the migration can be counted as the “laws of migration” from Ravenstein. In
1885, he published the article “The laws of migration”, and pointed out that most migrants travel short
distances and with increasing distance the numbers of migrants decrease;migration occurs in a series of
waves or steps; each significant migration stream produces, to a degree, a counterstream; urban dwellers
are lass migratory than rural dwellers; the major causes of migration are economy.(Ravenstein,1885)
Stouffer in 1940 put forwarded the theory that the volume of migration between two places is related not so
much to distance and population size, but to perceived opportunities that exist in those two places and
between them, and this is the famous “intervening opportunities”.(Samuel A. Stouffer, 1940)
After Zipf’s inverse distance law in 1949(Zipf, George Kingsley,1949) , Julian Wolpert in 1960s put
forwarded the the gravity model, which told the same ideas of the inverse distance law: the volume of
migration is inversely proportional to the distance traveled by migrants, and directly proportional to the
populations of the source and destination.(JULIAN WOLPERT, 1965)
D. J.Bague’s famous “push-pull”theory in 1950s believed that population movement is the result of two
forces acting in different directions, one is the power to promote population movements, the other is the
power of impeding the population flows. There are "push" factors for population mobility in the outflow
places, meanwhile, there are also "pull" factors, but compared to "pull" power, the “push” power dominants
the position.(D.J. Bague, 1956)
Introductio
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Lee in 1966 revised the simple "push-pull" model in two ways, the Lee model
introduced the idea of intervening obstacles that need to be overcome before migration
takes place; source and destination are seen as possessing a range of attributes; each would
be migrant perceives these attributes differently, depending on personal characteristics,
such as age, sex and marital status. (E.S. Lee, 1966)
Lee’s model of immigration
Source: E.S. Lee, a theory of migration,1966.
Introductio
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Under the background that facing the serious unemployment in developing countries, most
labours tried to go to urban areas for jobs, as a result the population migration has been
blocked the development of society and economy, Todaro proposed his own model to
explain the phenomenon: potential migrants weigh up both the costs and benefits of moving
before taking any action; migrants act in economic self-interest.(Todaro. M.P.,1969 )
After 1990s, the world population migration pattern has changed greatly, researches on
this issue was flourishing with the emergence of new theories. Scholars challenge the
assumptions of neoclassical theory of migration, and make breakthroughs based on
evidences, some new theory was born. For example, the new economic migration
theory , dual labor market theory(Piore, 1979) the world system theory(Wallerstein,
1991).
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(2) Empirical analysis
Yang Yanyun in 2004 took Wuhan for example analyzed the relationship between inter-migration
and urban spatial changes based on the data of 2000 population census, and summarized the types,
characteristics and general tendencies of the population flow in Wuhan.
Kevin Honglin ZHANG,Shunfeng SONG used time-series and cross-section analyses explained the
relations between rural–urban migration and urbanization.
Richard Waller analyzed the ecology, migration and urban expansion in east Africa, giving the
characteristics of both ecology and migration, as well as the limitations of the expansion and their relative
connections.
Wang Guixin, Mao Xinya and others compared three of the biggest metropolitan areas of China about the
relationships of the migration and the economic polarized growth.
Zhong Wen in 2010 published one article which did studies on the relationship between population
migration and urban developing spaces, and got the conclusion that urban development promotes migration,
at the same time, the floating population can react to the development and formation of urban space.
Above all, we can conclude that all these empirical analysis are qualitative analysis, no models and theories
were used inside, writers tried to find the inter relationship between migration and urban form according to
some low-level indicators, but there isn't any models can be found rationally.
Introductio
n
Hypothesis
under the background of
global economy, cities and
population have witnessed
rapid development: urban
expansion and increase of
migration, there are more
and more researches and
studies on their relationship
Objectives
Literature
Review
theories and
models analysis
about population
migration and
urbanisation, urban
development
Methodology Work Plan
References
historical evolution
of migration and
expansion process
in Shanghai
+
explore the
connections between
migration and urban
expansion
extended models
and theories for
relationships
between
migration and
urban expansion
analyzing
quantitively about
the relationships and
connections based on
the theories and
models above
put forward the
question
analyze the
question
solve the
problem
try to identify
rational size for the
urban expansion for
a city and make
some policies and
managements for
the population
migration
feedback
Introduction
Hypothesis
Objectives
Literature
Review
Methodology Work Plan
References
Part 1：Introduction. Part 1 tries to introduce the backgroud, purpose, contents,
methodology as well as the whole framework of the thesis.
Part 2：Literature Review. In the second part, I want to summarize and sort out the
theories and models about population flow and urban development as well as their possible
relationships so as to identify the connections between migration and expansion.
Part 3：General situation of Shanghai. This part takes Shanghai as example,
summarizing the evolution of population flows using historical data of about the migrations, as
well as changes of urban expansion spaces in Chinese history.
Part 4：Researches on the relationship. Based on the above analysis, we can find
some secondary indicators and summarized some models and theories to investigate the
relationship between migration and urban expansion.
Part 5：Conclusions. Making some conclusions about all the parts above
( characteristics of the evolutions of migration and urban extension, connections of between
them, and some special developments), and try to give some suggestions and comments for
formulating and identifying rational size for urban expansion and making policies and
managements for the population migration.
Introductio
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Objectives
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Methodology Work Plan
Review
References
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Introductio
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population migration
urban expansion
population increase rate
size of the built-up area
the proportion of in-migration in total
population
Sprawl Intensity Index：
Net variance of in-migration and outmigration
direction of the flow of the migration
level of urbanization
··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ··· ···
contribution rate model:
Cobb-Douglas function
Solow residual method
＋
References