SPECIAL SECTION FROM WORLD WATCH, MARCH/APRIL 2000 WORLD WATCH • Working For A Sustainable Future Vol. 13, No. 2 March/April 2000 Earth Day 2000 What Humanity Can Do Now to Turn the Tide ✦ Denis Hayes on Global Warming ✦ Chris Flavin on Energy for a New Century ✦ Major Global Trends, 1970 to 2000 ✦ 7 Key Moments That Helped Define the Trends of the Past 30 Years ✦ 7 Key Moments (Past and Future) That Could Help Define the World of the Next 30 Years © 2000 Worldwatch Institute E A R T H D A Y 2 0 0 0 Mobilizing to Combat Global Warming by Denis Hayes H omo sapiens has always altered its immediate environment. For example, ancient farmers converted the Fertile Crescent— the fabled Babylon—into the desert wastes of Iraq. But only in the last few decades have we had the capacity to literally change the entire planet. Only recently have we become a geophysical force. Jane Lubchenco, the former president of the prestigious American Association for the Advancement of Science, spoke forcefully about this new phenomenon in her farewell address to the AAAS. Looking out over a sea of the nation’s top scientists, Lubchenco warned: During the last few decades, humans have emerged as a new force of nature. We are modifying physical, chemical, and biological systems in new ways, at faster rates, and over larger spatial scales than ever recorded on Earth. Humans have unwittingly embarked upon a grand experiment with our planet. In 1992, 3,500 scientists from around the world signed a World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity that stated: Our massive tampering with the world’s interdependent web of life—coupled with the environmental damage inflicted by deforestation, species loss, and climate change—could trigger widespread adverse effects, including unpredictable collapses of critical biological systems whose interactions and dynamics we only imperfectly understand. These are not exhortations from overwrought extremists, but carefully phrased warnings from some of the world’s finest scientists. While the “news” is ✦ 6 WORLD•WATCH March/April 2000 dominated by sex scandals, celebrity athletes, and car wrecks, these scholars are trying to call public attention to the fact that the world has entered a dangerous new era. A few stark examples: • Most of the world’s great biological systems are in a state of collapse because we have logged, trawled, or cultivated them to maximize short-term production. Plant and animal species are going extinct at the fastest rate in 65 million years. • The world’s existing human population is already three times as great as the planet’s long-term carrying capacity if all people seek a level of affluence comparable to that currently enjoyed in, say, Sweden.* • Although the Cold War is over, little if any progress has been made in removing the single most imminent threat to the global environment—nuclear holocaust. A respectable body of opinion holds that a nuclear war is more likely today than it was under Brezhnev. • We have carved two giant holes in the ozone layer, increasing the exposure of people, plants, and animals to damaging radiation from the sun. • We have raised the temperature of the entire planet and set in motion a series of inexorable forces that will raise it a lot more before we can bring it *A thoughtful study of global human carrying capacity was released in early 1994 by David Pimentel, a professor of biology at Cornell University. The good news, as Professor Pimentel calculates it, is that if the most benign and efficient technologies were universally embraced, the world could permanently support a human population of two billion people at a lifestyle that resembles middle-class life in today’s Europe. The bad news is that the world’s population passed the six billion mark—three times that carrying capacity—in October, 1999. E A R T H back into equilibrium—no matter what we do. Solutions to these daunting problems have begun to emerge. They are opposed, however, by entrenched government bureaucrats and by private economic interests that are comfortable with the status quo and could be harmed by change. We have no institutional framework within which to address global environmental issues. The United Nations Environmental Programme is underfunded and lacks regulatory or enforcement power. The strongest international agency, the World Trade Organization, has proven to be aggressively antienvironmental in its goals and processes. Whenever progress has been made on a global environmental problem—such as ozone depletion— it has been due to a worldwide outpouring of public sentiment. Earth Day can be a central element in the campaign to mobilize an aroused citizenry. On April 22 of each year, people in most countries celebrate this informal, non-governmental holiday dedicated to the environmental health of our planet. Earth Day Network plans to focus each of these annual campaigns on a major global problem, and educate people around the world about common-sense solutions. Earth Day 2000 is focused on the peril of global warming and the need to accelerate the transition to the solar energy era. The aim is to create an informed global constituency for the super-efficient use of renewable energy sources as the best way to implement the Kyoto Protocol on Global Warming. The global coal industry and most of the world’s oil companies and electric utilities have sought to obfuscate, manipulate, spin, or crush past efforts to promote a renewable energy transition. But the science is now clear. Burning more and more carbon-based fuels into the future will produce a catastrophe. Avoiding irreversible planetary calamity—and instead guiding human development in positive directions that are healthy, diverse, and sustainable—is the primary moral obligation of our era. This profound mission is what makes the modern environmental movement more than “just one more special interest.” D A Y 2 0 0 0 The environmental movement, having enjoyed many successes at the city, state, and national levels, now needs to begin to address the global problems that threaten to undo all our progress elsewhere. Energy and climate change will be the first major test. Denis Hayes is the international chairman of Earth Day Network (EDN) and the author of The Official Earth Day Guide to Planet Repair (Washington, DC: Island Press, 2000). EDN has more than 4,000 affiliated organizations in 180 countries. To learn more about an Earth Day event near you, visit www.earth day.net or write to Earth Day, 91 Marion St., Seattle, WA 98104-1441. Denis Hayes: The future is in our hands. ILLUSTRATION BY LUCINDA LEVINE ✦ WORLD•WATCH March/April 2000 7 E A R T H D A Y 2 0 0 0 Energy for a New Century by Christopher Flavin The stone age did not end because the world ran out of stones, and the oil age will not end because we run out of oil. Don Huberts, Shell Hydrogen (Division of Royal Dutch Shell) T ✦ 8 he age of oil has so dominated social and economic trends for the last 100 years that most of us have a hard time imagining a world without it. Oil is cheap, abundant, and convenient—easy to carry halfway around the world in a supertanker or across town in the tank of a family sport utility vehicle. From Joe Sixpack to the PhD energy economists employed by governments and corporations, we tend to assume that we will burn fossil fuels until they’re gone, and that the eventual transition will be painful and expensive. But if you turn the problem around, our current energy situation looks rather different: from an ecological perspective, continuing to depend on fossil fuels for even another 50 years—let alone the century or two it might take to use them up—is preposterous. As the new century begins, the world’s 6 billion people already live with the dark legacy of the heavily polluting energy system that powered the last century. It is a legacy that includes impoverished lakes and estuaries, degraded forests, and millions of damaged human lungs. Fossil-fuel combustion is at the same time adding billions of tons of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere each year, an inexorable escalation that must end soon if we are not to disrupt virtually every ecosystem and economy on the planet. An energy transition in the new century is therefore ecologically necessary, but it is also economically logical. The same technological revolution that has created the Internet and so many other 21st century wonders can be used to efficiently harness and store the world’s vast supplies of wind, biomass, and other forms of solar energy—which is 6,000 WORLD•WATCH March/April 2000 times as abundant on an annual basis as the fuels we now use. A series of revolutionary technologies, including solar cells, wind turbines, and fuel cells can turn the enormously abundant but diffuse flows of renewable energy into concentrated electricity and hydrogen that can be used to power factories, homes, automobiles, and aircraft. These new energy conversion devices occupy about the same position in the economy today that the internal combustion engine and electromagnetic generator held in the 1890s. The key enabling technologies have already been developed and commercialized, but they only occupy small niche markets— and their potential future importance is not yet widely appreciated. As with the automobile and incandescent lightbulb before them, the solar cell and hydrogen-electric car are steadily gaining market share—and may soon be ready to contribute to a third energy revolution. They could foster a new generation of mass-produced machines that efficiently and cleanly provide energy needed to take a hot shower, sip a cold beer, or surf the Internet. Thanks to a potent combination of advancing technology and government incentives, motivated in large measure by environmental concerns, the once glacial energy markets are now shifting. During the 1990s, wind power has grown at a rate of 26 percent per year, while solar energy has grown at 17 percent per year. During the same period, the world’s dominant energy source—oil—has grown at just 1.4 percent per year. Wind and solar energy currently produce less than 1 percent of the world’s energy, but as the computer industry long ago discovered, double- E A R T H digit growth rates can rapidly turn a tiny sector into a giant. In the past two years, perhaps a dozen major companies have joined Royal Dutch Shell in announcing major new investments in giant wind farms, solar manufacturing plants, and fuel cell development. The “alternative” energy industry is beginning to take on the same kind of buzz that surrounded John D. Rockefeller’s feverish expansion of the oil industry in the 1880s—or Bill Gates’s early moves in the software business in the 1980s. This January, stocks of solar and fuel cell companies suddenly jumped several-fold in a month, following the pattern of Internet stocks. The 21st century may be as profoundly reshaped by the move away from fossil fuels as the 20th century was shaped by them. Energy markets, for example, could shift abruptly, drying up sales of conventional power plants and cars in a matter of years, and influencing the share prices of scores of companies. The economic health—and political power—of whole nations could be boosted, or in the case of the Middle East, sharply diminished. And our economies and lifestyles are likely to become more decentralized with the advent of new energy sources that provide their own transportation network—for example, the sunshine that already falls on our rooftops. How quickly the D A Y 2 0 0 0 world’s energy economy is transformed will depend in part on whether fossil-fuel prices remain low and whether the opposition of many oil and electric power companies to a new system can be overcome. The pace of change will be heavily influenced by the pace of international negotiations on climate change and of the national implementation plans that follow. In the 1980s, California provided tax incentives and access to the power grid for new energy sources, which enabled the state to dominate renewableenergy markets worldwide. Similar incentives and access have spurred rapid market growth in several European countries in the 1990s. Such measures have begun to overcome the momentum of a century’s investment in fossil fuels. Earth Day 2000—with its central theme, “Clean Energy Now!”—provides a timely opportunity for citizens to express their desire for a new energy system, and to insist that their elected officials implement the needed policy changes. If they do so, smokestacks and cars may soon look as antiquated as manual typewriters and horse drawn carriages do. Christopher Flavin is Senior Vice President at Worldwatch Institute, where he writes primarily on energy. He is co-author with Nicholas Lenssen of Power Surge: Guide to the Coming Energy Revolution. Twenty years ago, he was Denis Hayes’ research assistant. Christopher Flavin: The hope for a sustainable energy economy is no longer an idealistic tilting against windmills—it’s a chance to tilt with them. ✦ WORLD•WATCH March/April 2000 9 E A R T H D AY 2 0 0 0 A 30-YEAR REPORT CARD On the first Earth Day in 1970, experts warned that the planet’s natural systems were being dangerously destabilized by human industry. Here is how we have fared on some key fronts since then: As our growing population increased its burning of coal and oil to produce power, the carbon locked in millions of years worth of ancient plant growth was released into the air, laying a heat-retaining blanket of carbon dioxide over the planet. Earth’s temperature increased significantly. Climate scientists had predicted that this increase would disrupt weather. And indeed, annual damages from weather disasters have increased over 40-fold. Fossil Fuels CO2 Burned Concentration Million tons of oil equivalent 8,000 PPM Energy and the Climate 6,800 Degrees Celsius Billion Dollars 14.6 375 Fossil Fuels 7,600 7,200 Storm Global Temperature Damages 14.5 365 14.4 Temperature 14.3 355 6,400 6,000 5,600 80 60 14.2 345 14.1 Damages CO2 335 5,200 4,800 100 14.0 40 20 13.9 325 1970 1990 1980 13.8 2000 0 Solution: A faster shift to nonpolluting, renewable solar, wind, and hydrogen energy systems. World Production of Synthetic World Organic Pesticide Use Chemicals Million Tons 500 400 Million Kilograms 3.0 Chemicals and the Biological Boomerang PesticidePesticideResistant Resistant Weeds Crop Diseases Number 2.5 300 2.0 Synthetic Organic Chemicals 1.5 1.0 1970 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 1980 1990 0 0 2000 Solution: A large-scale shift to organic farming; a shift away from excessive consumption of synthetic chemical products; and application of the precautionary principle to the chemical industry. ✦ 10 200 Weeds 100 0 250 Crop Diseases Pesticides 200 250 Our consumption of chemicals has exploded, with about three new synthetic chemicals introduced each day. Almost nothing is known about the long-term health and environmental effects of new synthetics, so we have been ambushed again and again by belated discoveries. One of the most ominous chronic effects: as pesticide use has increased, so has the evolution of pesticideresistant pests. WORLD•WATCH March/April 2000 E A R T H Population has increased by as much in the past 30 years as it did in the 100,000 years prior to the mid-20th century. And as the number of people has grown, the amount of land used by each person— either directly or through economic demand—has also expanded. As a result of this double expansion, incursions of human activity into agricultural and forested land have accelerated. Population and the Land Population Autos Billions 6.0 Millions 510 D A Y 2 0 0 0 Grain Forest Cover Cropland Percent of Hectares per person original forest remaining 0.18 0.17 5.5 430 Population 5.0 0.16 61 59 0.14 4.5 Cropland 270 Forest Cover Autos 3.5 63 0.15 350 4.0 65 190 1970 1980 1990 0.13 57 0.12 55 0.11 2000 53 Solution: Stabilize population, especially by improving the economic and social status of women; design cities in ways that reduce distances traveled between home, work, shopping, and school; and in urban transit systems, shift emphasis from cars to public transportation, bicycling, and walking. Gross World Product Trillion Dollars 40 Total World Fishing Fleet Capacity Million Tons Commerce and the Oceans Total World Catch World Fish Catch Rate of Atlantic Perch Tons per ton of fleet capacity Million pounds 44 7 60 6 50 GWP 39 35 30 Fleet Capacity 34 5 29 4 24 3 40 30 25 19 20 15 Catch Rate 14 9 1970 1 Atlantic Perch 1980 2 1990 0 2000 20 10 0 The global economy has more than doubled in the past 30 years, putting pressure on most countries to increase export income. Many have tried to increase revenues by selling more ocean fish—for which there is growing demand, since the increase in crop yields no longer keeps pace with population growth. Result: overfishing is decimating one stock after another, and the catch is getting thinner and thinner. Solution: Stabilize population growth; stop subsidizing fishing fleets; and end the practice of feeding ocean-caught fish to farmed fish (it takes five pounds of ocean catch to produce one pound of farmed fish), which is still a very profitable and common practice. These two pages may be reproduced without written permission, provided that they are copied in their entirety including the WORLD WATCH attributions at the foot. ✦ WORLD•WATCH March/April 2000 11 E A R T H D A Y 2 0 0 0 7 moments that helped define the trends of the past 30 years . . . The Car: Mannheim, Germany, 1885 Karl Friedrich Benz takes the world’s first gasolinedriven automobile out for a test drive and reaches a speed of 9 miles per hour. It’s not yet faster than a horse, but the global infatuation with motorized speed is about to begin. Though petroleum has been around for decades, used mainly for lighting lamps, the advent of the internal combustion engine causes a surge in demand, and the fossil-fuel age begins. The Gusher: Masjid-I-Salaman, Persia, May 26, 1908 Drillers strike oil, and the rights are quickly acquired by the British government. The new enterprise, British Petroleum, turns out to be sitting atop the largest oil reservoir in the world, and thus is established a Western dominance of oil that will prevail throughout the 20th century. That dominance will be strengthened by the establishment of the U.S.-controlled Arab-American Oil Company (Aramco) in 1933 and the Iranian coup in 1953. The resulting flow of cheap oil allows the fossil-fuel economy to dominate global industrialization. The Golden Arch: Oak Park, Illinois, late 1950s McDonald’s decides to open franchises all over the world. In order to establish uniform standards of production for its French fries, the company requires suppliers in each country it enters to grow its global standard potato—the Idaho russet. Other varieties, often better adapted to local conditions of soil, rainfall, temperature, and growing seasons, are displaced. The French fries policy becomes a model for the “monoculturization” of agriculture on a global scale. It is an approach that eventually increases food supply for the expanding human population but also opens the way to increased erosion, soil depletion, dependence on fertilizers and pesticides, nitrogen pollution of rivers and bays, and the decline of genetic diversity in the world’s major food crops. The TV: Western Europe, 1952 The first international standard for transmission of TV images (in lines per frame and frames per second) is established, opening the way to mass-audience broadcasts. Appetites for consumption are stimulated first in the industrial countries where TVs catch on quickly, then in the developing world where subtitled ✦ 12 WORLD•WATCH March/April 2000 or dubbed American or European shows serve as implicit but vivid advertisements for first-world overconsumption. The Highway: Washington, DC, 1956 The U.S. Congress passes the Interstate Highway Act, authorizing construction of a national network of high-speed roads across the United States. The American penchant for traveling long distances, even in routine trips between home, work, shopping, and recreation, is greatly facilitated. Suburbanization is accelerated, natural areas are paved over, and pollution increases as major cities build beltways and open the way to “edge” cities. High mobility becomes a model for other countries, which develop their own highway systems—causing massive increases in deforestation, oil spills, air pollution, and carbon dioxide emissions. The Backlash: India, mid-1970s The Indian government, faced with surging population, adopts a policy of enforced birth control. Many men and women undergo compulsory sterilization. The policy triggers a great backlash, and the birthrate climbs instead of declining. Demographers project that by 2010, India will have passed China as the most populous country on Earth. The Flood: Yangtze River Basin, China, 1998 Chinese developers clear thousands of hectares of forest to make space for the country’s burgeoning population—thus setting the stage for one of the largest disasters in history. Stripping tree cover reduces the watershed’s capacity to slow the flow of surface water. Global warming increases evaporation—and thus increases rainfall. When the monsoon of 1998 comes, the heightened volume and velocity of the runoff—and unprecedented numbers of people living in the water’s path—drive over 100 million people from their homes. The following year, Hurricane Mitch inundates Honduras and Belize, where similar deforestation has taken place. The disruptive impacts of climate change appear to be well under way. E A R T H D A Y 2 0 0 0 7 And moments (past and future) that could be keys to the next 30 years . . . Civil Society: Uttarakhand, India, 1958 A popular movement arises to protest government mismanagement of Himalayan forest, and the operations of large timber companies engaged in what is widely regarded as a form of looting. Led mainly by women, the Chipko movement asserts the traditional rights of villagers to manage their local forests rather than submit to management by a distant bureaucracy. The Chipko movement raises the profile of nongovernmental environmental movements in India, as thousands of women stand in the way of tree-cutters. In the ensuing years, grass-roots groups proliferate, and become more numerous in India than in any other country. By the 1990s they have become a “third force” in human organization worldwide—a “civil society” that may soon be strong enough to begin to counterbalance unresponsive government and industry. Precautionary Principle: New York, 1962 Rachel Carson publishes a book, Silent Spring, calling attention to the rising burden of chemical pollutants on the environment. As the burden continues to worsen in the following decades, it provokes discussion of a new Precautionary Principle—the principle that the burden of proof of safety should be on those who wish to introduce a new chemical, not on those who claim to have been injured by it. In the 1990s, the principle will be invoked by members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a network of the world’s leading climate scientists, in their argument that “uncertainty” in climate science should not be a reason to avoid preventive action on climate change. Earth Summit: Stockholm, Sweden, 1972 The United Nations Conference on Human Development becomes the first global effort to place the protection of the biosphere on the official agenda of international policy and law. It will be followed by the UN Conference on Human Settlements (HABITAT) in 1976, the first World Climate Conference in 1979, and the UN Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit) in 1992—leading to what has become an essentially continuous process of international discussion on issues that concern transnational threats to human security. Micropower: Sri Lanka, about 1990 In 100 villages, solar panels are installed on rooftops to provide low-cost electricity to homes that are not on the electric grid. Similar installations are being made, around the same time, in the Domican Republic, Zimbabwe, and other developing countries. They form the first scatterings of a movement toward the use of decentralized electric power systems, based on nonpolluting solar or wind power, that will eventually revolutionize the energy industry worldwide. GMO-Free Food: Western Europe, 1998 European protesters compel transnational biotech companies to halt the rush to use genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in agriculture. Monsanto’s bullish advertising campaign is scrapped; major food producers and retailers change their food-processing formulas; Monsanto halts its program to force farmers to buy terminator seed. The Climatic Wake-Up Call: Somewhere on Earth, soon An extreme weather event strikes a major population center head-on, with cataclysmic results. The event may be a gigantic hurricane or storm surge striking a coastal city, or it may be an inland flood inundating a heavily populated river basin. This time the disaster achieves a perceptual critical mass in the global public—an undeniable recognition that the greatest threats to human security are not those of military invasion but of environmental degradation. As a result, large-scale campaigns are undertaken to gird for—and stabilize—the future impacts of climate change. Bioregionalism: U.S. and Canadian Pacific, early 21st century Along the northern Pacific coast, there is yet another clash between native peoples and the companies logging the region’s remaining old growth rainforest. But after decades of controversy over the management of coastal forests and waters, the native activists discover they have a constituency much broader than anything their predecessors enjoyed. From Oregon through British Columbia, they have awakened a latent bioregional awareness—a widely-shared view that the region is unique, both ecologically and culturally. This awareness begins to reshape local politics, to make it better reflect the long-term interests of the region itself. As the region thrives, people elsewhere come to believe— and act on—the principle that environmental progress often comes easier when natural regions are given precedence over political ones. ✦ WORLD•WATCH March/April 2000 13 WORLD WATCH On-Line Thank you for downloading this free pdf (special section) from the Worldwatch Institute’s award-winning magazine, WORLD WATCH. If you enjoyed this article, please consider using the form below to subscribe to WORLD WATCH. Your paid subscription will support Worldwatch’s cutting-edge research on a sustainable future for our planet. And your subscription will support our use of the Internet to increase the distribution of more of our publications for free in developing countries. 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