Climate, Microclimate and the
Distributions of Species
Chris Thomas
University of York
[email protected]
1. Changes that have already taken place
2. Incorporating microclimate in our thinking
3. Implications for pre/post-diction and conservation
British southern species – spreading northwards
British species over 25 years: + ubiquitous N shifts
(average for species in group)
N
S
Rachael Hickling, David Roy, Jane Hill, Richard Fox, Chris Thomas; GCB, 2006
368 species with distinct range boundaries in Britain
Change over 25 years
70
69 move south
60
50
297 move north
2 stay put
keeping up?
40
30
20
10
50
10
0
15
0
20
0
25
0
30
0
35
0
40
0
0
0
-4
00
-3
50
-3
00
-2
50
-2
00
-1
50
-1
00
-5
0
mammals
birds
reptiles
amphibian
freshwater fish
dragonflies
grasshoppers
lacewings
aquatic bugs
butterflies
ground beetles
longhorn beetles
cantharid beetles
harvestmen
spiders
woodlice
millipedes
Number of species
10
38
2
1
16
20
22
6
16
34
66
11
17
4
91
8
6
Range margin change (km)
data from Rachael Hickling, David Roy, Jane Hill, Richard Fox, Chris Thomas; GCB, 2006
1. Changes that have already taken place
2. Incorporating microclimate in our thinking
3. Implications for pre/post-diction and conservation
Climate projections delivered at coarse
resolution, but experienced locally
• most insects develop within a few metres of where
the egg was laid
• many sessile organisms, including plants
• KEY issues
– aspect, slope, elevation
– vegetation structure
– behavioural adjustment
Topography – Vyrnwy, NE Wales
What is the temperature of this landscape?
10 km resolution
Micromaker
output
Spatial
variation in
temperature
0˚C
Thanks to
Pippa
Gillingham
25.3˚C
April 2007
maximum
temperature:
25.3˚C
Average
across
landscape
1 km resolution
Spatial
variation in
temperature
5.9˚C
Thanks to
Pippa
Gillingham
Micromaker
output
April 2007
maximum
temperature:
22.3 - 28.2˚C
Averages per
square
100 m resolution
Spatial
variation in
temperature
8.4˚C
Thanks to
Pippa
Gillingham
Micromaker
output
April 2007
maximum
temperature:
19.9 - 28.3˚C
Averages per
square
5 m resolution
Spatial
variation in
temperature
11.2˚C
Thanks to
Pippa
Gillingham
Micromaker
output
April 2007
maximum
temperature:
19.1 - 30.3˚C
Averages per
square
Deciduous woodland
Habitats
Skipwith Common,
Yorkshire
Grassland
Heathland
Thanks to Andy Suggitt
Temperatures on Skipwith Common, Yorks
0.3 m ht, hourly records, 14th to 20th August 2008; foil-wrapped i-buttons
September 2008 Results - at 0.01m height
Temperatures ˚C
Thanks to
Andy Suggitt
mean
min
max
range
Grassland
13.56
-0.12
28.81
28.93
Heathland
13.06
0.58
25.88
25.30
Deciduous woodland
13.13
6.35
20.45
14.10
NS
p<0.0005
p=0.01
p<0.0005
ANOVA
hourly records;
foil-wrapped i-buttons
14.8˚C difference in near-ground level
temperature range between vegetation types
Thanks to
Andy Suggitt
September 2008 Results
Height above ground (m)
0.01
1.50
Grassland
28.93
18.52
Heathland
25.30
19.37
Deciduous woodland
14.10
14.66
p<0.0005
p=0.001
Temperature Range ˚C
ANOVA
hourly records;
foil-wrapped i-buttons
10.4˚C difference between 0.01 & 1.5m in grassland
0.56˚C diff. between 0.01 & 1.5m in woodland
Big numbers!
• 11.2˚C for spatial variation within 10 km square
• 14.8˚C temperature range difference between
grassland and woodland (at 0.01 m height)
• 10˚C temperature range difference between 0.01
&1.5m in grassland; 0.56˚C difference between
0.01 &1.5m in woodland
• 1.1˚C to 6.4˚C likely increase in global
temperatures from 1990s to 2090s (IPCC 2007)
1. Changes that have already taken place
2. Incorporating microclimate in our thinking
3. Implications for pre/post-diction and conservation
Egg-laying rate increases with temperature
Eggs laid per 30 min interval
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
18-20
20-22
22-24
24-26
26-28
28-30
30-32
Mean TA (oC)
Z. Davies et al., J Anim Ecol 2006
32-34
34-36
36-38
38-40
Changed habitat associations
Proportion of sites
Kuiper’s test, p < 0.001
0.25
0.25
0.2
0.2
0.15
0.15
0.1
0.1
0.05
0.05
0
0
0
90
180
270
Aspect
Populated 1982
0
90
180
270
Aspect
Colonised 2000
Thomas et al., Nature 2001
Traditional
silverspotted
skipper
habitat
o
Oviposition - ambient temp ( C)
Temperature-dependent choice of microhabitat
10
8
6
hot microsites chosen
at cool ambient
temperature
cool microsites
chosen at hot ambient
temperature
4
2
0
-2 22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
-4
-6
o
(
C)
T
A
Ambient temperature
Z. Davies et al., J Anim Ecol 2006
(°C)
40
Egg densities in 1982 and 2001
2
Egg density (no. eggs/m )
12
2001 max
1982 max
10
8
6
4
2
0
1-4
5-10
Z. Davies et al., J Anim Ecol 2006
11-25 26-33 34-50
Bare ground (%)
51-75
76-90
Reduced reliance on
warm, bare ground
Unimproved
calcareous
grassland
Distribution 1982 (2 x 2 km squares)
N
50 km
Surveys 1982, 1991 (N, S Downs), 2000…2009
Occupied
Vacant
Habitat availability: H. comma, South Downs 1982-2000
c
1982 habitat definition
DD
1982
refuge
d
2000 habitat definition
DD
0
5
10 km
Beachy Head
Simulated expansion of H. comma in the South Downs, 1982-2000
using Hanski (J Anim Ecol 1994) IFM metapopulation model
cafter 18 generations
1982 habitat definition
DD
1982
refuge
d
2000 habitat definition
DD
not colonised
<50% colonised (% runs) >50%
0
5
10 km
Beachy Head
d
Simulated expansion 1982-2000
in 2000 habitat network
DD
not colonised
<50% colonised (% runs) >50%
e
Observed expansion 1982-2000
DD
1982
not colonised
colonised by 2000
Scale (km) 0
5
10
N
170-220° networks – cold world
N
50 km
Area (ha)
>10
>5
>1
>0.1
<0.1
All aspects (2000) – hot world
N
50 km
Area (ha)
>10
>5
>1
>0.1
<0.1
Simulated % occupancy after 100 years - cold world
170-220°,
Start 2000
N
50 km
using Hanski (J Anim Ecol 1994) IFM metapopulation model
>90
>75
>50
>25
>0
0
Simulated % occupancy after 100 years - hot world
All aspects,
Start 1982
N
50 km
>90
>75
>50
>25
>0
0
using Hanski (J Anim Ecol 1994) IFM metapopulation model
Microclimate variation is large:
Acknowledgements
determines biodiversity responses
affects conservation adaptation
Acknowledgements
Pippa Gillingham, Andy Suggitt, Rob Wilson, Zoe Davies, Aldina Franco
NERC, UKPopNet, English Nature, RSPB