Climate, Microclimate and the Distributions of Species Chris Thomas University of York [email protected] 1. Changes that have already taken place 2. Incorporating microclimate in our thinking 3. Implications for pre/post-diction and conservation British southern species – spreading northwards British species over 25 years: + ubiquitous N shifts (average for species in group) N S Rachael Hickling, David Roy, Jane Hill, Richard Fox, Chris Thomas; GCB, 2006 368 species with distinct range boundaries in Britain Change over 25 years 70 69 move south 60 50 297 move north 2 stay put keeping up? 40 30 20 10 50 10 0 15 0 20 0 25 0 30 0 35 0 40 0 0 0 -4 00 -3 50 -3 00 -2 50 -2 00 -1 50 -1 00 -5 0 mammals birds reptiles amphibian freshwater fish dragonflies grasshoppers lacewings aquatic bugs butterflies ground beetles longhorn beetles cantharid beetles harvestmen spiders woodlice millipedes Number of species 10 38 2 1 16 20 22 6 16 34 66 11 17 4 91 8 6 Range margin change (km) data from Rachael Hickling, David Roy, Jane Hill, Richard Fox, Chris Thomas; GCB, 2006 1. Changes that have already taken place 2. Incorporating microclimate in our thinking 3. Implications for pre/post-diction and conservation Climate projections delivered at coarse resolution, but experienced locally • most insects develop within a few metres of where the egg was laid • many sessile organisms, including plants • KEY issues – aspect, slope, elevation – vegetation structure – behavioural adjustment Topography – Vyrnwy, NE Wales What is the temperature of this landscape? 10 km resolution Micromaker output Spatial variation in temperature 0˚C Thanks to Pippa Gillingham 25.3˚C April 2007 maximum temperature: 25.3˚C Average across landscape 1 km resolution Spatial variation in temperature 5.9˚C Thanks to Pippa Gillingham Micromaker output April 2007 maximum temperature: 22.3 - 28.2˚C Averages per square 100 m resolution Spatial variation in temperature 8.4˚C Thanks to Pippa Gillingham Micromaker output April 2007 maximum temperature: 19.9 - 28.3˚C Averages per square 5 m resolution Spatial variation in temperature 11.2˚C Thanks to Pippa Gillingham Micromaker output April 2007 maximum temperature: 19.1 - 30.3˚C Averages per square Deciduous woodland Habitats Skipwith Common, Yorkshire Grassland Heathland Thanks to Andy Suggitt Temperatures on Skipwith Common, Yorks 0.3 m ht, hourly records, 14th to 20th August 2008; foil-wrapped i-buttons September 2008 Results - at 0.01m height Temperatures ˚C Thanks to Andy Suggitt mean min max range Grassland 13.56 -0.12 28.81 28.93 Heathland 13.06 0.58 25.88 25.30 Deciduous woodland 13.13 6.35 20.45 14.10 NS p<0.0005 p=0.01 p<0.0005 ANOVA hourly records; foil-wrapped i-buttons 14.8˚C difference in near-ground level temperature range between vegetation types Thanks to Andy Suggitt September 2008 Results Height above ground (m) 0.01 1.50 Grassland 28.93 18.52 Heathland 25.30 19.37 Deciduous woodland 14.10 14.66 p<0.0005 p=0.001 Temperature Range ˚C ANOVA hourly records; foil-wrapped i-buttons 10.4˚C difference between 0.01 & 1.5m in grassland 0.56˚C diff. between 0.01 & 1.5m in woodland Big numbers! • 11.2˚C for spatial variation within 10 km square • 14.8˚C temperature range difference between grassland and woodland (at 0.01 m height) • 10˚C temperature range difference between 0.01 &1.5m in grassland; 0.56˚C difference between 0.01 &1.5m in woodland • 1.1˚C to 6.4˚C likely increase in global temperatures from 1990s to 2090s (IPCC 2007) 1. Changes that have already taken place 2. Incorporating microclimate in our thinking 3. Implications for pre/post-diction and conservation Egg-laying rate increases with temperature Eggs laid per 30 min interval 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 18-20 20-22 22-24 24-26 26-28 28-30 30-32 Mean TA (oC) Z. Davies et al., J Anim Ecol 2006 32-34 34-36 36-38 38-40 Changed habitat associations Proportion of sites Kuiper’s test, p < 0.001 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 0 0 0 90 180 270 Aspect Populated 1982 0 90 180 270 Aspect Colonised 2000 Thomas et al., Nature 2001 Traditional silverspotted skipper habitat o Oviposition - ambient temp ( C) Temperature-dependent choice of microhabitat 10 8 6 hot microsites chosen at cool ambient temperature cool microsites chosen at hot ambient temperature 4 2 0 -2 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 -4 -6 o ( C) T A Ambient temperature Z. Davies et al., J Anim Ecol 2006 (°C) 40 Egg densities in 1982 and 2001 2 Egg density (no. eggs/m ) 12 2001 max 1982 max 10 8 6 4 2 0 1-4 5-10 Z. Davies et al., J Anim Ecol 2006 11-25 26-33 34-50 Bare ground (%) 51-75 76-90 Reduced reliance on warm, bare ground Unimproved calcareous grassland Distribution 1982 (2 x 2 km squares) N 50 km Surveys 1982, 1991 (N, S Downs), 2000…2009 Occupied Vacant Habitat availability: H. comma, South Downs 1982-2000 c 1982 habitat definition DD 1982 refuge d 2000 habitat definition DD 0 5 10 km Beachy Head Simulated expansion of H. comma in the South Downs, 1982-2000 using Hanski (J Anim Ecol 1994) IFM metapopulation model cafter 18 generations 1982 habitat definition DD 1982 refuge d 2000 habitat definition DD not colonised <50% colonised (% runs) >50% 0 5 10 km Beachy Head d Simulated expansion 1982-2000 in 2000 habitat network DD not colonised <50% colonised (% runs) >50% e Observed expansion 1982-2000 DD 1982 not colonised colonised by 2000 Scale (km) 0 5 10 N 170-220° networks – cold world N 50 km Area (ha) >10 >5 >1 >0.1 <0.1 All aspects (2000) – hot world N 50 km Area (ha) >10 >5 >1 >0.1 <0.1 Simulated % occupancy after 100 years - cold world 170-220°, Start 2000 N 50 km using Hanski (J Anim Ecol 1994) IFM metapopulation model >90 >75 >50 >25 >0 0 Simulated % occupancy after 100 years - hot world All aspects, Start 1982 N 50 km >90 >75 >50 >25 >0 0 using Hanski (J Anim Ecol 1994) IFM metapopulation model Microclimate variation is large: Acknowledgements determines biodiversity responses affects conservation adaptation Acknowledgements Pippa Gillingham, Andy Suggitt, Rob Wilson, Zoe Davies, Aldina Franco NERC, UKPopNet, English Nature, RSPB
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