Briefly Noted
Copyright 1996 by
The Cerontological Society of America
The Cerontologist
Vol. 36, No. 5,681-685
Declining mortality over the Twentieth Century has altered the supply of older relatives in the
kin networks of persons at all stages of life. Mortality decline has also changed the supply of
kin for older persons. Using period life tables for selected years between 1900 and 2000,1
calculate the proportion of persons who, at various stages of the life course, would have
grandparents, parents, spouses, siblings and children still living. The results draw attention to
the unprecedented potential for kinship ties involving older persons afforded by
contemporary high survival rates.
Key Words: Mortality conditions, Kinship, Grandparents, Older siblings, Older parents
Mortality Decline in the Twentieth Century
and Supply of Kin Over the Life Course1
Peter Uhlenberg, PhD2
Mortality decline over the Twentieth Century has
drastically increased the chances that a newborn will
survive to experience old age. Under mortality conditions existing in 1900, only 39% of an initial birth
cohort would survive to age 65, and only 12% would
survive to age 80. By the end of the Twentieth Century, mortality rates had fallen to a level where 86%
would survive to 65 years of age and 58% would
survive to age 80. This remarkable increase in probability of surviving to older ages has implications for
the structure of family relationships which involve
older persons. An earlier article, "Death and the
Family" (Uhlenberg, 1980) explored some of the family consequences of declining death rates between
1900 and 1976. This article extends the earlier study in
two ways. First, data are updated to show the continuing effects of mortality decline on kinship structures in the last quarter of this century. Second,
greater attention is given to kinship implications of
changing gender differences in survival to old age.
The Twentieth Century mortality revolution has
altered potential connections with elderly relatives
for people at all stages of life. As death rates fall, it
becomes more likely that children and young adults
will have living grandparents. Delaying death to
older ages means that middle-aged persons increasingly will have older parents still living. And, lower
1
The author wishes to thank Vem Bengtson for suggesting that I update
my earlier article, "Death and the Family." Also thanks to reviewers of the
first draft for their constructive suggestions.
2
Address correspondence to Peter Uhlenberg, PhD, Department of Sociology, CB #3210 Hamilton Hall, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill,
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3210.
Vol.36, No. 5,1996
death rates increase the odds that those who survive
to old age will have elderly spouses and siblings still
living. With the concentration of deaths in old age, it
also becomes less likely that an older person will
have experienced the death of any of his or her own
1
children. The point of this study is to provide a
quantitative assessment of changes in the survival of
grandparents, parents, spouses, siblings, and children for persons at different stages of the life course.
This brief descriptive report focuses specifically on
implications of changing mortality and does not attempt to discuss other important factors that are
changing kinship relationships. For example, the effects of declining fertility and changes in marriage
patterns are not examined here. This analysis does
not explore consequences of changes in family structure (one-parent families, step-kin, fictive kin, etc.)
for kin relationships. And, finally, it does not speak
to the nature of kin relationships. Different types of
data from those utilized here are needed to gain
insight into the meaning of grandchild-grandparent,
child-parent, sib-sib, husband-wife, and parent-child
relationships at different historical time periods.
What is accomplished by focusing on mortality
levels as the independent variable? First it allows a
clear statement of the profound effects that mortality
changes over the past century have had on the potential for specific kin ties to exist. Second, it demonstrates that recent mortality declines continue to
significantly impact kinship structures. And third,
this study provides data that may be used in future
studies which develop a more complete picture of
how kin relationships involving older persons are
changing over time.
681
Assessing Implications of Mortality Levels
Period life tables are used to assess the implications of mortality conditions for the survival of various family and kin relationships. The life tables used
here, prepared by the actuaries for the Social Security Administration, cover the entire Twentieth Century (Social Security Administration, 1992). I have
selected life tables for 1900, 1920, 1940, 1960, 1980,
and 2000 to track the timing of change over the 100
years. These period life tables allow one to focus
specifically on the implications of mortality conditions that exist at particular historical time periods.
The probability of death disrupting particular relationships by the time a person reaches a particular
age are calculated for the situation where women
marry at age 22 and men at age 25, where children are
born to mothers aged 27 and fathers aged 30, and
where siblings are born 3 years apart. (While the
distribution of ages at which these events occur vary
over time, the ages used here are close to the median
ages over this century.) Several comments on interpreting the results reported below are in order.
First the survival patterns of grandparents, parents,
siblings, spouses, and children that are obtained
from period life tables do not reflect the experiences
of actual cohorts. Since death rates change over
time, no period table captures the experience of a
cohort that ages through time. The experience of
actual cohorts could be assessed using appropriate
cohort life tables for the experiences of members of
different generations. An analysis of this type would
be useful for answering some questions, but it would
not answer the question addressed here — what are
the implications of mortality conditions existing at
particular time periods?
Second, this analysis assumes that the risks of death
for various family members are independent. This is
not a particularly good assumption because family
members tend to share certain risk factors, such as
genetic makeup and social class. Unfortunately, adequate historical data for a more refined analysis,
which takes into account differential mortality risks
across family groups, are not available. The findings
produced by this study provide rough estimates of
change occurring over time, not precise and fully
nuanced statements of survival within kin groups.
Third, as noted above, changes in fertility are not
examined in this study. Changes in family size do not
affect the likelihood that individuals have grandparents, parents, or spouses still alive at various stages
of life. They do, however, affect the likelihood that
siblings or children have died. Thus, it is important to
note that the discussion of siblings refers to survival
of particular siblings (not all siblings) and the discussion of children refers to families with two children
(one son and one daughter). By keeping family size
constant over time, attention is directed to the consequences of mortality change.
Century. The steadily increasing prospects of having
grandparents alive at various stages of the life course
are shown by data in Table 1. These calculations were
made assuming that in each generation a child is
born when the mother is 27 years of age and the
father age 30. With these assumptions, mortality levels existing in 1900 imply that fewer than one fourth
of all children began life with all four of their grandparents alive, and by age 30, only 21% had any surviving grandparent. By the end of the century, on the
other hand, over two thirds will have begun life with
all grandparents still living and more than three
fourths will have at least one grandparent alive when
they reached age 30. In addition to this overall increase in supply of grandparents, several additional
interesting changes are revealed by data in Table 1.
First, having at least one grandparent alive during
early childhood was usual even in 1900 — only 6% did
not have a living grandparent at age 10. However, at
the beginning of the century, most persons no
longer had any living grandparents by the time they
reached their mid-twenties. About 80% of all persons
would experience the loss of their last grandparent
by the time they were likely to be rearing young
children (i.e., at age 30). By the end of the century,
not only will almost all children (97%) arrive at adulthood with at least one grandparent living, but 76%
will still have a living grandparent when they reach
age 30. The growing likelihood of having grandparents alive during one's childbearing years has implications for the great-grandparent role in kin groups.
In particular, it is only toward the end of the Twentieth Century that it was common for young children
to coexist with great-grandparents, thereby having
the potential for a relationship.
Second, throughout this century, it has been more
common to have grandmothers alive than grandfathers. But a growing gender gap in mortality rates
Table 1 . Percent of Persons at Various Ages
Who Have Grandparents Still Living,
Under Mortality Conditions Existing in Selected Years: 1 9 0 0 - 2 0 0 0 '
1 +Grandparent
All Grandparents Alive
at Age:
Year
0
10
20
30
0
10
20
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
23.8
31.0
41.3
54.8
62.7
67.8
6.4
9.8
14.0
22.6
31.0
38.9
0.4
0.7
1.2
3.2
6.1
9.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
99.2
99.6
99.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
94.2
96.4
98.1
99.4
99.7
99.9
69.6
75.5
82.5
92.0
95.8
97.4
1 +Grandmother
Alive
at Age:
30
20.6 1.0
24.6 1.6
32.5 2.3
51.3 6.5
68.3 15.4
75.8 21.0
1 +Grandfather
Alive
at Age:
40
Alive
at Age:
0
10
20
Supply of Grandparents
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
92.5
94.5
97.8
99.3
99.6
99.7
80.1
84.3
91.2
96.2
97.7
98.3
52.1
57.4
68.9
83.2
89.3
91.3
The supply of grandparents for children and young
adults has changed remarkably over the Twentieth
a
Assuming children are born in each generation to mothers age
27 and fathers age 30.
682
30
40
Year
15.4 0.8
17.9 1.3
25.8 2.0
43.2 5.7
60.2 14.1
66.9 19.1
0
10
89.4
92.6
94.2
96.4
97.7
98.3
71.1
77.3
78.6
83.5
88.5
92.2
20
30
36.5 6.2
42.4 8.1
44.0 9.0
52.3 14.1
60.8 20.4
69.7 26.8
40
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.8
1.6
2.4
The Gerontologist
over much of this time period led to an increasing
differential in survival of grandmothers compared to
grandfathers. More specifically, the excess of grandmothers compared to grandfathers increased. Consider, for example, the ratio of those with only a
grandmother alive to those with only a grandfather
alive. For those age 20, this ratio increased from 1.9 in
1900 to 4.5 in 2000, and for those age 30, the ratio
increased from 2.8 to 5.5. Among those age 30 in
2000, 67% will have a grandmother alive while only
27% will have a grandfather alive. And the contrast at
age 40 is even greater (19% vs 2%). Clearly, a large
majority of the great-grandparents in this country are
female. (Mortality conditions in 2000 imply that
about 75% of the living grandparents of 30-year-olds
will be grandmothers.)
A final observation concerns the timing of the
growth in supply of grandparents. The largest increase in life expectancy at birth occurred early in
this century (73% of the total increase that will occur
between 1900 and 2000 occurred before 1950). The
drop in death rates leading to the increase in life
expectancy before 1950 affected all age groups, but
was greater for infants and children than for adults.
More recent mortality declines have been greater
among the elderly. Over half of this century's gain in
average years lived past age 60 has occurred since
1960. Consequently, mortality declines in the last 40
years have been especially important in increasing
the supply of grandparents for persons in the postchildhood years of life. For example, the proportion
of 30-year-olds with a living grandparent will have
increased from 50% in 1960 to 76% in 2000 and the
proportion of 40-year-olds with a living grandparent
will have tripled (from 7% to 21%). If death rates at
older ages continue to fall in the future as expected,
the supply of grandparents for young adults will
continue to grow at a brisk pace.
Table 2. Percent of Persons at Various Ages
Who Have Parents Still Living,
Under Mortality Conditions Existing in Selected Years: 1 9 0 0 - 2 0 0 0 '
Both Parents Alive
at Age:
Year
40
50
60
70
40
50
60
70
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
22.1
26.6
33.4
48.5
51.4
58.5
4.4
6.0
8.1
14.4
20.7
26.7
0.1
0.2
0.3
1.0
2.5
4.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
27.6
23.3
16.5
8.3
6.5
4.6
61.0
55.8
48.2
33.5
24.5
19.8
92.5
90.7
87.0
76.4
63.3
56.2
99.8
99.7
99.5
98.2
95.0
92.9
Only Mother Alive
at Age:
Only Father Alive
at Age:
Year
40
50
60
70
40
50
60
70
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
30.0
28.2
33.8
29.6
31.4
26.7
22.3
24.2
31.1
40.1
42.9
40.4
5.6
6.6
10.0
18.5
28.8
33.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1.6
4.6
6.5
20.3
21.9
16.3
13.6
10.7
10.1
12.2
13.9
12.6
12.0
11.9
13.1
1.8
2.5
2.7
4.1
5.4
6.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.6
a
Assuming children are born when mothers are age 27 and
fathers age 30.
Survival of Old Parents
A decline in adult mortality rates obviously leads to
an increase in the typical ages at which individuals
experience the deaths of their parents. Information
in Table 2 shows that under 1900 mortality conditions, only 22% of those who survived to age 40
would still have two living parents, and few (4%) who
survived to 50 would not have lost at least one parent. By the end of the century, a majority of 40-yearolds will still have both parents alive and over one
fourth of 50-year-olds will. Nevertheless, it will still
remain uncommon to reach old age with both parents still alive.
The likelihood of arriving at midlife with at least
one parent still alive increased consistently throughout the Twentieth Century. The proportion who are
complete orphans by age 50 will drop from over 60%
in 1900 to under 20% by 2000. And by 2000, it will no
longer be uncommon to have an old parent alive as
one approaches old age — 44% will have a parent
alive when they reach age 60. The near-doubling
between 1960 and 2000 in proportion of 60-year-old
women who have a widowed parent alive (from
Vol.36, No. 5,1996
Neither Parent Alive
at Age:
683
23.6% to 43.8%) is clearly related to the growing
literature on the burden of caring for aging parents.
Throughout the Twentieth Century, it has been
more common for adults with only one living parent
to have a mother alive than a father. The odds of the
last parent to die being a mother, however, will be
higher at the end of the century than at the beginning. Between 1920 and 1980, death rates declined
much more rapidly for adult females than for males.
For example, the average years of life remaining at
age 30 grew by 11.7 for females over this time period
(from 37.5 to 49.2 years) compared to 5.9 for males
(from 36.8 to 42.7). Consequently, the ratio of those
having only a mother alive at midlife to those with
only a father alive rose steeply. Between 1920 and
1980, the proportion of 50-year-olds with only a
mother alive grew from 24% to 43%, while the proportion with a father only declined from 14% to 12%.
After 1980, adult death rates declined more for males
than for females, leading to a slight reversal of the
earlier trend of the gap growing larger. Nevertheless,
it is still about five times more likely that a 60-year-old
will have a widowed mother than a widowed father.
Survival of Spouses
The story of Twentieth Century changes in the
probability that surviving persons will experience
widowhood before they reach various stages of old
age is relatively simple. Data in Table 3 shows the
likelihood of having a first spouse still alive at ages
60, 70 and 80 for men and women who marry at ages
25 and 22, respectively. Under 1900 mortality conditions, only half of the men and a third of the women
who survive to age 70 would still have a living spouse.
By 2000, these proportions will increase to 85% and
61%, respectively. In 1900, only 26% of the men who
reached age 80 could expect their first spouse to be
alive, but by 2000 the proportion in this category will
Table 3. Percent of Persons at Various Ages
Whose First Spouse Is Still Living,
Under Mortality Conditions Existing in Selected Years: 1900-2000*
Wife Alive
for Husband at Age:
Table 4. Percent of Persons at Various Ages
Who Have a Particular Sibling Still Living,
Under Mortality Conditions Existing in Selected Years: 1 9 0 0 - 2 0 0 0 *
Husband Alive
for Woman at Age:
Older Brother Alive
at Age:
Older Sister Alive
at Age:
Year
60
70
80
60
70
80
Year
60
70
80
60
70
80
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
67.9
72.3
82.4
90.0
92.3
93.9
50.2
55.3
66.4
77.8
82.5
85.0
25.8
29.3
38.8
54.3
63.4
66.9
56.5
63.0
65.9
71.9
77.1
80.8
33.1
38.7
40.5
46.4
53.3
60.6
9.8
12.1
13.1
18.0
23.6
29.7
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
40.3
51.2
59.5
68.0
74.2
78.9
23.6
31.4
36.6
43.9
51.3
59.2
7.0
9.9
11.8
17.0
25.4
29.0
43.9
53.6
68.7
80.9
85.6
88.5
27.1
34.3
47.5
63.2
71.1
74.5
8.9
11.6
18.4
32.0
47.8
49.9
a
Younger Brother Alive
at Age:
Assuming that wife is age 22 and husband is age 25 at marriage.
increase to 67%. Similar increases in spouse survival
occurred for women who survived to very old ages,
although widowhood has always been a more common experience for women than men.
While decreasing death rates created large gains in
potential years that men and women could expect to
live in uninterrupted marriages, increasing divorce
rates have had an opposite effect. Divorce ended
approximately 10% of the marriages contracted at the
beginning of the Twentieth Century, compared to
50% of those contracted at the end of century. Because divorces are concentrated in the earlier years of
marriage, the rise in divorce rates increased the number of persons whose first marriage ended before
midlife. The major impact of decreasing death rates,
on the other hand, has been to decrease the rate of
marital disruption after midlife. The balancing point
of these opposing forces is about 70 years — i.e., the
prospects of 70-year-old men and women still living
with a first spouse are quite similar under conditions
in 1900 and 2000. (At both times, about 45% of the
men and 30% of the women would be living with their
first spouses.) At ages past 70 years, the prospects of
still living with a first spouse are greater now than in
the past. For example, the proportion of 80-year-old
men still living with their first wives will increase from
about 23% in 1900 to 33% in 2000.
Survival of Siblings
Although sibling relationships typically are less
intense than husband-wife and parent-child relationships, there is evidence that siblings frequently provide social and instrumental support for each other
throughout life. And sibling relationships are unique
in their potential longevity. Two siblings who are
born within a few years of each other and who both
survive into old age can maintain a relationship for 70
or more years. The odds of such long-lasting sibling
relationships actually occurring have, of course,
changed greatly as mortality has declined over the
past 100 years. Table 4 shows how prospects have
changed for a person with a brother or a sister who is
either three years older or three years younger than
him- or herself.
Given the preceding discussion of changes in
other relationships, the changing proportion who
have particular siblings still alive at various stages of
old age is not surprising (Table 4). First, the magni684
Younger Sister Alive
at Age:
Year
60
70
80
60
70
80
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
48.0
59.4
69.7
78.2
82.7
85.3
34.2
44.3
51.2
59.2
66.4
72.5
14.7
22.3
26.0
33.0
39.9
47.9
51.3
61.4
76.6
86.9
90.5
92.8
37.9
46.9
61.7
75.2
80.9
84.0
17.7
24.9
36.0
52.4
62.2
66.1
'Assuming a three-year age difference between person and his
or her sibling.
tude of the historical change is large. For example,
consider those who survive to 70 and who had a
sister born three years earlier than themselves. In
1990,27% of these individuals would have their sister
still living, but in 2000 the proportion was 75%. Second, because of gender differences in declining
mortality, differences in the prospects of a sister
surviving, compared to a brother, grew much larger
between 1920 and 1980. In 1920, the proportion of 80year-olds whose older sister would still be living
(12%) differed little from the proportion whose older
brother would still be living (10%). By 1980, however,
this contrast was marked (48% vs 25%). And third, at
older ages, where death rates are high, the difference in probability of an older sibling compared to a
younger one being alive are significant. In 2000, the
proportion of older brothers of 80-year-olds still living will be 29%, while the proportion of younger
brothers still living will be 48%. Combining gender
and birth order differentials leads to even larger
contrasts in sibling survival. At age 80 in 2000, only
29% could expect an older brother to be alive, while
66% could expect a younger sister to be alive. Under
contemporary mortality conditions, most persons
will not experience the death of any particular sibling
until they are well past 70 years of age.
Survival of Children
The final set of calculations (Table 5) illustrates the
changing likelihood over the Twentieth Century of
women at various stages of old age having their
children still living. The conditions shown in the
table refer to a situation where a woman has a daughter when she is 27 years old and a son when she is 30.
(The statistics would apply equally to men who were
these ages when their children were born.) What
proportion of these women would have both, neither or only one child alive as they reach ages 60, 70
The Gerontologist
Table 5. Percent of Women at Various Ages
Whose Children Are Still Living,
Under Mortality Conditions Existing in Selected Years: 1900-2000"
Both Children Alive
at Age:
Neither Child Alive
at Age:
Year
60
70
80
60
70
80
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
49.9
64.9
81.7
90.2
93.2
95.3
41.7
55.9
75.9
87.0
90.5
91.8
33.1
46.6
66.2
79.6
84.5
86.6
8.5
3.7
0.9
0.2
12.5
6.3
1.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
17.9
10.0
3.3
1.0
0.5
0.4
0.1
0.0
Son Only Alive
at Age:
Daughter Only Alive
at Age:
Year
60
70
80
60
70
80
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
22.9
17.3
10.1
6.0
4.5
3.3
25.2
20.4
13.2
27.2
23.6
18.4
12.9
10.5
9.7
18.6
14.1
7.3
3.5
2.2
1.4
20.7
17.4
9.3
4.5
2.8
2.2
21.8
19.8
12.0
6.4
4.4
3.3
8.1
6.5
6.0
Conclusion
Four rather startling examples illustrate the implications of Twentieth Century mortality decline for
the prevalence of kin relationships involving older
persons:
"Assuming two children are born, a daughter at age 27 and a son
at age 30.
or 80? Under contemporary circumstances, it is uncommon for women with this type of childbearing
history to experience the death of a child at any stage
of their later life. In other words, relatively few children now die before their parents. Mortality conditions in 2000 imply that 95% would still have both
children living when they reach age 60 and 87%
would have them still living when they reach age 80.
Only four out of 1,000 would have lost both children
before reaching age 80. As many have noted, with
low mortality, it is not necessary to bear more than a
couple of children in order to be relatively certain
that you will have a surviving child when you are old.
But loss of children was not exceptional for those
surviving to old age in past times. Under mortality
conditions of 1900, only half of all women surviving
to age 60 would have both the son and daughter still
alive, and two thirds would have experienced the
death of at least one of their two children before
reaching 80 years of age. It was more likely that an 80year-old mother of two in 1900 would have lost both
her children (18%) than that a similar 80-year-old in
2000 would have lost any child (13%). Over the last
century, it has become increasingly likely that when
only one child survives, that the child is a daughter.
The ratio of 70-year-old women with only a daughter
to those with only a son increased from 1.2 in 1900 to
2.7 in 2000. Thus, not only are daughters currently
more likely than sons to provide care for their aging
parents, but they are also less likely to drop out of the
relationship completely by dying.
Vol. 36, No. 5,1996
(a) It is more likely that 20-year-olds alive now have a
grandmother still living (91%) than that 20-yearolds alive in 1900 had a mother still living (83%).
(b) It is more likely that 70-year-olds today have a
younger sister (one born three years after they
were) still living (84%) than that 10-year-olds in
1910 had a younger sister still living (80%).
(c) Men age 80 today are about as likely to have their
first wives still living (67%) as were men age 60 in
1900 (68%). And more women were widowed by
age 45 in 1900 (21%) than by age 60 today (19%).
(d) Women who bear sons at age 25 now are more
likely to have those sons alive when they are 80
years old (87%) than women in 1900 were to have
their sons survive the first two years of life (82%).
And if the child is a daughter, a higher proportion
are now still living when their mothers reach age
90 (86%) than were surviving for just two years
around 1900 (85%).
Clearly, declining mortality has altered the structure of kin relationships involving older persons.
Children and young adults have more grandparents
living today than in the past. More middle-aged
adults have aging parents still living. Fewer persons
at all stages of old age are widowed. And more older
persons have their siblings still living. Demographic
forces have created an unprecedented potential for
persons at all stages of life to have kin relationships
involving older persons.
While low mortality makes relationships with older
kin increasingly possible, the nature of these relationships is primarily determined by social forces.
Grandparents may be valued resources, or they may
be irrelevant. Old parents may be loved ones, or they
may be burdens. Aging first spouses may be intimate
companions, or they may be ex-spouses. Elderly siblings may be close friends, or they may be distant
relatives. How kin relationships that link the elderly
to other persons actually develop is likely to have
significant consequences for the social-emotional
well-being of older persons.
References
Social Security Administration. (1992). Life tables forthe United States Social
Security Area, 1900-2080 (Actuarial Study No. 107). Washington, DC:
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Uhlenberg, P. (1980). Death and the family. Journal of Family History, 5,
313-320.
Received September 14, 1995
Accepted March 15, 1996
685