Afghanistan’s Uncertain Future
A review from Afghan Perspective
2
Table of content
Introduction
3
Background
4
The fall of the Taliban
4
The Post Taliban
5
Post-Taliban Transition
5
Politics, Governments and Elections
7
Socio-economic structure
9
Aid effectiveness
9
The Taliban upraising
10
Conclusion
11
References
12
3
Introduction
The current process of ongoing reconstruction and state-building in Afghanistan has been
seriously questioned by policy-makers, academics, and experts on Afghanistan. Ten years since
the International intervention, Afghanistan still remains one of the poorest countries in the world
1
and faces serious challenges in regard to insecurity, international terrorism and the drug
economy. According to a recent poll by the Asia Foundation, ordinary Afghans are losing hope
in their country’ future, (The Asia Foundation, 2010). In light of the current debate on the
withdrawal of NATO and its allies forces from Afghanistan serious challenges remain to be
overcome such as the weak and corrupt Afghan government, ranked according to Transparency
International in 2011 as the second most corrupt country in the world, ineffective Afghan
security forces that number almost 300000, dependent Afghan economy which relies heavily on
donor aid, and a growing insurgency that has proven difficult to defeat.
In this essay it can be argued that despite of significant level of efforts by the international
community in particular the United States still Karzai’s government performance is weak and to
a certain point of view it is unacceptable to Afghan people and every day the number of
problems are growing specially insecurity, unemployment and draught in recent years in various
parts of central Afghanistan.
With reference to, current issues in Afghanistan, it can be explained that there are significant
challenges towards state-building in Afghanistan such as: 1) Rule of law, 2) Deadline for
1
The UNDP human development index has ranked Afghanistan 155 among 169 countries which shows that despite
of huge level of international aids, still people suffer from poverty, insecurity and transparency by the Afghan
government.
4
withdrawal of the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan, 3) Drug economy, 4) corruption and
5) The Taliban insurgency are mostly important issues which will be mentioned in this essay.
Background
Historically, Afghanistan has proven to be the graveyard of empires, the Samanid (819-855)2 the
British, the Russian (Goodson, 2001) as well as the birth and cross-roads of the empires such as
the Ghaznavids (963-1187)3.
During its modern history, Afghans fought three times with the Great Britain known AngloAfghan wars: first in (1838-1842), second in (1878-1880) and finally were in 1919 that caused
the independence of Afghanistan. (Goodson, 2001) However, this was not the last war for the
Afghan people and in early 1980, the Soviet occupied Afghanistan (Olivier, 1991).and later the
Red army forced to leave Afghanistan on February 15, 1989. Consequently, the people paid a
huge cost to fight against the Soviet, but unfortunately war never ended until December 2001.
The fall of the Taliban
In September 1996 Taliban controlled south Afghanistan and then the capital city and major
provinces. According to, (Dorronsoro, 2005) the Taliban’s policy was based on single-ethnic
governing Afghanistan and during the fighting they massacred and cleansed most non-Pashtun
ethnics in different parts of the country in particular the Central and Northern Afghanistan. This
violence policy and close ties with Al-Qaeda a terrorist network limited the Taliban at the
2
The Samanids are known as Tajik states in Central Asia mainly Sunni-Muslim ruled from 819 until 999 AD, and its
founder named Saman Khuda.
3
The Ghaznavids dynasty was founded by Sebuktigin. And the Ghaznavids Empire mainly was Turk and the empire
existed between 963 to 1187 A D.
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international level and for this reason the Taliban recognised by its three supporting countries;
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates. (Dorronsoro, 2005).
Concerning the Taliban’s relationship with Osama Bin Laden4 the former leader and founder of
Al-Qaeda caused Taliban to step down by the United States of America few weeks after the
September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States soil.
The Post-Taliban
Post September 11 Afghanistan’s government founded through US direct policy expansion in
South and Central Asia. This policy counted good opportunity to live in quite peaceful situation
despite of many years of insecurity. (Ketzman, 2011) In other words, the Afghanistan
geopolitical location counted a key feature for world’s powerful and regional countries in recent
years. Even the Afghan people suffer almost for forth decades.5 Prior to the fall of the Taliban
regime the United Nation chaired the Bonn agreement to establish the interim and permanent
government institution in Afghanistan on December 2011.
The Post-Taliban Transition
Therefore, Afghanistan’s political situation changed after September 11, 2001 and people
welcomed the bright future. The Bonn process led four Afghan political groups to negotiate
4
Osama Bin Laden formed the Al-Qaeda and prior to this network he supported the Afghan Fighters against the
Soviet Army. By supporting Taliban militant Osama had this opportunity to train his worriers against the United
States before the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Moreover, the Taliban rejected NOT to support Osama after 9/11 terrorist
attacks and then, it cost them a huge casualties. Finally Osama Bin Laden assassinated by the US force at his
house in Islamabad, Pakistan on May 1, 2011.
5
After the withdrawal of Soviet on December 24, 1979 from Afghanistan, the Afghan worriers (mujahidin) turned into
internal conflict as a result the people suffered seriously. Most of the infrastructure destroyed in Kabul. People
witnessed of war against the Soviet, internal conflict, the Taliban regime and now the Taliban insurgency with mainly
with US, NATO and Afghan forces for the last seven years.
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under observation of UN re-appointed special representative Lakhdar Brahimi. Although all
parties could not participate in the Bonn process such as; women and minorities groups
including the Taliban and Hezb Islami a radical militant group. Consequently among four
groups the Northern Alliance in particular Shura-i-Nezar has dominated the key positions as the
Washington agreed (Sharan 2010). However, all Northern Alliance played important roles in the
ground but exceptionally this happened. The North Alliance consisted of three main nonPashtun ethnic groups; the Hazara, Tajik and Uzbek and among them Tajik dominated key
positions. In relation to this the Bonn process also created real winner and loser in the political
formation of Afghanistan.
Other non-Northern alliance’s groups were mainly representing Pashtun and consisted of
mujahidin and former King Zaher Shah Delegates.
The Bonn agreement laid out the powers for an interim government and then transitional
administration intended to shepherd the country through reconstruction and the unification of
key institutions which should control these decisions. The Agreement also provided for the
drafting of a new constitution to be approved by a Constitutional Loya Jirga within eighteen
months after the establishment of the Bonn Agreement and this agreement also attempted to
address the fractions security in Kabul and other areas where the UN sanctioned force was
deployed.(Thier, 2004). To a certain extent, during the first two years the government did not
face any serious challenge, except by Padsha Khan Zadran a Pashtun warlord in Paktia province
whom wanted key position in the government.
7
Politics, Governments, and Elections
According to Sharan (2011) the Afghanistan politics functions as a network that is based on
patronage policy of governing the country. In other words, prior selection to Hamed Karzai in
the Bonn Agreement most participants agreed to elect Abdul Sattar Sirat the Rome delegate
leader and an Uzbek ethnic. Then it become a significant challenge for the participants and the
Pashtun felt that we have ignored as they think that they deserve the post of the President in
Afghanistan. Considering such politics finally Hamed Karzai was appointed to lead the interim
administration. Consequently a similar policy used during transitional government that affected
the constitution of the country, there were gaps and ethnic debates about the formation of a
government. Then, most Pashtuns were supporting the presidential constitution rather than
prime-minister-ship. In contracts the non-Pashtun ethnics supported the Prime-minister-ships
with lack of coordination in side their group members. In relation to, these gaps the Pashtun won
as they had good international level support during in emergency traditional assembly in 2002.
This is to say, that on January 2004 the Constitution approved by Constitutional Loya Jirga.
Set up strong presidency, a rebuke to mainly Northern Alliance that wanted prime-ministership
to balance presidential power, but gave parliament significant powers to compensate. Perhaps
law gives equal rights for political parties as long as they are not un-Islamic (Afghanistan
constitution Chapter 7, Article 156).
Although, after the approval of the constitution the Afghan government and the international
community have put enough efforts to host the country’s first election in its modern history,
6
The Loya Jirga (Ground Council) approved the constitution on June 2004, cited: September 5, 2011: the
Afghanistan constitutions: http://moj.gov.af/en/page/1684
8
So, for the first time ground opened for wider election across the country and exceptionally the
Afghan citizens elected their president in October 2004 through a democratic election observed
by international and national observers. (Katzman, 2011). As stated earlier that the elite
networks and patron-client relations worked in Afghanistan during the presidential and
parliamentary elections in 2004 and 2005, and on the other hand, it has proved that the ethnoregional factions can play most important role in Afghanistan. However, the parliamentary
elections based on Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) system and candidate stood as
individuals not part of political parties. But the patron-client relations affected the election as the
ordinary Afghan believe that you won be pass unless someone in the government to support you
during the elections or even further appointments within the government.
Afghan Parliament consists of 249 seats in its lower house and 102 seats in upper house. Despite
a lack of security in certain areas, the women participations were remarkable. Moreover, the
provincial election was successful but, with unclear rules almost in all 34 provinces (Katzman,
2011). In addition it has stated in the constitution, that mayors should be elected but as today
both the Karzai administration and the international community in particular the donor agencies
avoid sponsoring the municipality elections so far. Karzai wants to influence key positions then
he offered these positions to his friends to control and strengthen team.
Socio-economic structure
The political structure of Afghan state has historically been dominated by one ethnic group, the
Pashtuns who have ruled the country since its modern formation in 1747. This has meant a
planned policy of marginalizing other ethnic groups such as Tajiks, Hazaras and others. As such,
the current post-2001 Afghanistan is not far from that policy. State structure has become a venue
for contestation over power by different ethnic factions who control different parts of the state.
9
This foundation was set up in the Bonn Agreeemnt of 2001 where the thirty main ministries
were allocated to different ethnic groups. This has proved the start of a long internal conflict
within the state by different factions which eventiually led to the consolidation for Karzai in
2009 presidential election (Sharan, 2011).
Afghanistan never experienced a centralized
democratic state in its modern history and the most common is the patronage system that within
this system many figures played in recent decades. However, such system will not let
Afghanistan towards state-building since the relations would influence the state-policy as well as
challenge the social-equality development in the country being home for multi-ethnic groups.
To summarize, the relations between patron-client and corruption and drug economy strongly
linked and most key positions holders challenges the country’s future.
Aid effectiveness
Despite of significantant amount of aids and grants contributions to Afghanistan for the last ten
years, it can be seen that the people suffer from poverty and unemployment in various parts of
the country. On the other hand there is gap in distribution of aids and most minorities could not
benefit out of it. (Goodson 2001) for example in most Pashtun areas formers cultivated opium as
a result the international community have requested to allocate fund for alternative livelihoods in
the past six years. However, this solution worked well various provinces but the Afghan
government never provided enough supports to free-opium areas and the Hazara rural area can
be a good example of which even people did not receive a minimum incentive package compare
to Pashtun in the south and east Afghanistan. According to Ketzman (2011) the current
development has been accomplished with foreign, particularly the United States’ help although
the west appears disinclined to continue aiding Afghanistan at existing level. The report claims
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that the United States has provided $ 51.5 billion in assistance to Afghanistan for the last ten
years, more than 50 percent of has spent on providing training and equipping Afghan forces.
Taliban Insurgency
The Bonn Conference excluded the Taliban insurgency in 2001, but the Taliban was not the only
group that could not contribute in the establishment process of permanent government institution
in Afghanistan. With reference to earlier statement about the Taliban and its relation with
world’s most fundamentalist network given a dynamic potential to act as guerrilla against the
International community and their Afghan partner government. Therefore, this group had
challenged the US and NATO forces in Kandahar a Pashtun province in southern Afghanistan
during winter 2002-3 by launching immediate fighting with US forces and Afghan allies.
(Dorronsoro, 2005) concerning to insecurity issues Taliban are the only extremist group that
disagreed with the presence of US troops in Afghanistan. Hekmatyar and Haqani are the two
Pashtun radical leaders created headache in recent years. For example, thousands of soldier
killed especially in August 2011 it has increased dramatically to 66 soldiers within a month.
(BBC 2011). The other major issues are drug economy and corruptions counted as non-Taliban
challenges, to say that the dynamic patron-client relations and some key position holders are
involved with both issues especially the corruption that exist within the government. In addition,
the withdrawal of the United States and the NATO forces by December 2014 put much more
stress on the Afghan since there is no room for hope. Even the Afghan force and governmental
institutions suffer from lack of capacity and capability.
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Conclusion
To conclude, democracy and stabilization of Afghanistan highly depends on the level of support
by the United States and the alliance. The donor agency should contribute in the development
and reconstruction process for long term. Meanwhile, the international community re-create a
benchmark for a partner government body in Afghanistan as the Karzai administration criticized
by its people and the world for weak performance and lack accountability and transparency. To
a certain extend currently the corruption is not an issue at domestic level and the blame can go to
the international level as well. The UN could play strict role to observe the governance
performance with better solutions.
Despite of the outlined relevant issues to Afghanistan, it is proved that the neighbouring
countries in particular Pakistan and Iran have difficulties with an independent governmental
body in Afghanistan, as they influences many ethnic groups in Afghanistan including the
Taliban, Hekmatyar and or many Shiite and Tajik by Iran.
Finally, policy-makers and academics suggest that stabilize Afghanistan needs a proactive
strategic treaty with the US for long-term and this would enable Afghanistan to strength its
institution in the future. They also say that regional partnership is most important and the best
alternative country in replacement of Pakistan and Iran would be India which has proved to
Afghans being a good regional partner and furthermore, India also need a strong Afghanistan for
its future relationship. To summarize that such cooperation within three countries the US, India
and Afghanistan may counted key for further achievement and development.
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References
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