© ITCILO/Valeria Morra
Early warning
and economic, social
and cultural rights
Early warning
and economic, social
and cultural rights
Summary
© UN Photo/Manuel Elias
In the present report, submitted pursuant to General Assembly
resolution 48/141, the United Nations High Commissioner for
Human Rights considers the links between violations of economic,
social and cultural rights and violence, social unrest and conflict,
and suggests that an analysis of the enjoyment of the said rights could
inform early warning efforts for effective preventive action.
Contents
paragraphs
page
I.Introduction
1–3
2
II. Links between economic, social and cultural rights violence,
social unrest and conflict
4–29
3
8–12
6
B. Youth unemployment
13–16
6
C. Health crisis 17–18
9
D. Water crisis
19–22
10
E. Displacement and forced evictions 23–29
10
30–46
12
A. Human Rights Up Front initiative and the Inter-Agency Standing Committee
30–35
12
B. Office of the Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide and
the Special Adviser on the Responsibility to Protect
36–41
14
C. Special procedures
42–46
14
47–60
16
A. Cross-cutting risk factors
51–55
16
B. Thematic risk factors 56–57
19
C. Challenges to effective early warning analysis 58–60
21
61–63
22
A. Food crisis
III. Conflict prevention and early warning mechanisms
IV. Risk factors and indicators
V.Conclusions
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
I. Introduction
1. In the modern-day context of intensifying
competition over and the depletion of natural
resources, water, land and other elements that
are crucial for an adequate standard of living, the
denial of economic and social rights is increasingly
at the heart of violence and social unrest.
2. Violations of economic, social and cultural
rights stem from a variety of factors, including
unequal power distribution, discrimination and
inequality; for example, the unrest in Tunisia in late
2010 and in 2011 that led to the “Arab spring”
was triggered by the suicide, in sign of protest,
of a street vendor. The underlying causes of the
turmoil that followed, however, included longstanding inequality, high unemployment, limited
and precarious access to livelihoods and a very
limited ability to redress the status quo.1 More
recently, in 2014, in Brazil, on the eve of the World
Cup, people protested against their lack of access
to economic and social rights, including water.2
Another example is provided by the recent riots
in Ferguson and Baltimore in the United States of
America. While in both cases the initial trigger was
the killing of young black men by the police or while
in police custody, many linked the subsequent riots
and unrest to frustration over systemic discrimination
and the lack of equal access to jobs, quality
education and health care for racial minorities.3
3. In the present thematic report, the United
Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights seeks
to illustrate the links between economic, social
and cultural rights and violence, social unrest and
conflict. The report highlights the crucial elements
of a human rights analysis that should inform early
warning and conflict prevention efforts in the United
Nations system and beyond. Lastly, it examines
the conclusions of expert meetings on economic,
social and cultural rights and early warning held by
the Office of the High Commissioner (OHCHR) in
Geneva and Bangkok in 2015.
Ryan Rifai, “Timeline: Tunisia’s uprising”, Al Jazeera, 23
January 2011.
1
Maria Tadeo, “Brazil hit by widespread protests in Rio de
Janeiro and Sao Paulo as authorities send troops to Recife
ahead of World Cup”, Independent, 16 May 2014.
2
2
3
Valerie Strauss, “From Ferguson to Baltimore: The consequences
of government-sponsored segregation”, 3 May 2015.
II. Links between economic,
social and cultural rights
violence, social unrest and
conflict
4. Economic, social and cultural rights are part
of the international human rights legal framework
in which all rights are universal, indivisible and
interdependent and interrelated.4 Like civil and
political rights, they aim to protect the human
dignity of rights-holders by establishing obligations
for States. Economic, social and cultural rights
reflect the minimum conditions required to ensure
freedom from fear and want, and the continuous
improvement of these conditions.5 These rights are
enshrined in various international instruments, such
as the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and
the International Covenant on Economic, Social
and Cultural Rights. Both the Declaration and the
Covenant provide for, inter alia, the rights to work,
to just and favourable conditions of work, to form
and join trade unions, to the protection of the
family, maternity and childhood, social security, an
adequate standard of living, to health and to take
part in cultural life. Various other binding universal
and regional human rights instruments also provide
for the promotion and protection of economic, social
and cultural rights.6
5. The work of truth commissions can provide
an insight into the relationship between violations
of economic, social and cultural rights and conflict.
Truth commissions are established as part of a
post-conflict reconstruction plan to assist war-torn
countries in their transition to peace, and reveal
the underlying causes of conflict and political
violence (an area of work commonly referred to
as “transitional justice”). The mandate of a truth
commission is usually of limited duration and
focuses on the investigation of past human rights
violations; truth commissions also often make
recommendations for redressing the harm caused by
these transgressions.
These instruments include the International Convention on
the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination, the
Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination
against Women, the Convention on the Rights of the Child,
the Convention on the Protection of the Rights of All Migrant
Workers and Members of Their Families and the Convention
on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities.
Vienna Declaration and Programme of
CONF.157/24 (Part I), chap. III), para. 5.
4
Action
(A/
See OHCHR Fact Sheet No. 33, Frequently Asked Questions
on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, December 2008.
5
© UN Photo/Martine Perret
6
3
4
© ILO/J.Maillard
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
6. Approximately 35 truth commissions have
been established around the world in recent
decades, and the cumulative knowledge derived
from their investigations offers a diagnosis of the
underlying causes of conflict.7 While most truth
commissions focus on systematic violations of civil
and political rights, they tend to include an analysis
of the historical context and the deeper causes of
these violations.
7. Most truth commissions find that the majority
of victims of civil and political rights violations
belong to marginalized populations that have
suffered from socioeconomic inequalities long
before the outbreak of violence. In their efforts to
re-establish justice and to rebuild the social fabric
after a conflict, truth commissions, such as the
Commission for Reception, Truth and Reconciliation
in Timor-Leste and the Truth and Reconciliation
Commission in Sierra Leone, often conclude that the
root causes of conflict are violations of economic,
social and cultural rights.8 The Commission in
Timor-Leste identified violations of the right to an
adequate standard of living, and the rights to health
and education as root causes. It considered that
Indonesia, as the occupying Power, discriminated
against the Timorese and failed “to provide for
certain basic needs, such as food, shelter, essential
medicines and basic education”.9 The Commission
in Sierra Leone found that the conflict had erupted
because of the “endemic greed, corruption and
nepotism that deprived the nation of its dignity and
reduced most people to a state of poverty”, thereby
violating their economic, social and cultural rights.10
A review of social science literature on violence and
conflict confirms that social unrest usually originates
from long-standing inequalities, marginalization,
unemployment, discrimination and a lack of
remedies.11
“Chega! The Report of the Commission for Reception, Truth
and Reconciliation in Timor-Leste” (CAVR, 2005), chap. 7.9,
para. 7.
9
“Witness to Truth: Report of the Sierra Leone Truth and
Reconciliation Commission”, vol. 2, chap. 2, para. 13.
10
See Steven C. Poe, Nicolas Rost and Sabine C. Carey,
“Assessing Risk and Opportunity in Conflict Studies: A Human
Rights Analysis”, Journal of Conflict Resolution, vol. 50, No.
4 (August 2006), pp. 484-507; Oskar N.T. Thoms and James
Ron, “Do Human Rights Violations Cause Internal Conflict?”,
Human Rights Quarterly, vol. 29, 2007, pp. 674-705; and
Paul Collier, “Economic Causes of Civil Conflict and their
Implications for Policy”, World Bank, 15 June 2000.
11
Priscilla B. Hayner, Unspeakable Truths: Transitional Justice
and the Challenge of Truth Commissions, 2nd ed. (New York,
Routledge, 2011).
7
OHCHR, Transitional Justice and Economic, Social and
Cultural Rights (Geneva and New York, 2014), p. 17.
© ILO/M.Crozet
8
5
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
A. FOOD CRISIS
8. In the periods 2007/08 and 2011/12,
violent riots broke out in protest at rising food
prices and costs of living in, inter alia, Bangladesh,
Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt,
Ethiopia, Guinea, India, Kenya, Madagascar,
Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal,
Somalia, Tunisia and Zimbabwe.12
9. Research also confirms that food crises trigger
conflict and social unrest.13 Several scholars have
identified a specific food price threshold above
which protests become likely, highlighting that the
timing of riots in 2008 and violent protests in North
Africa and the Middle East in 2011 coincided with
peaks in global food prices.14
10. Tensions among populations or communities
competing for control of natural resources required
for food production, such as land, water and seeds,
can lead to conflict. Social, political and economic
inequalities in access to food can also heighten
existing grievances and build momentum towards
conflict; for example, various authors have found
that, among the root causes of the civil war in the
Syrian Arab Republic, tensions caused by four
successive droughts in the predominantly Kurdish
north-eastern region of the country forced 2 million
small-scale farmers to migrate into the urban areas
of Aleppo and Damascus.15
Hossain, N. et al, “Them Belly Full (But We Hungry): Food Rights
Struggles in Bangladesh, India, Kenya and Mozambique”,
synthesis report from DFID-ESRC research project “Food Riots
and Food Rights”, Institute of Development Studies, Brighton,
2014.
12
See Julia Berazneva and David R. Lee, “Explaining the African
food riots of 2007-2008: An empirical analysis”, Food
Policy, vol. 39, April 2013, pp. 28-39; Henk-Jan Brinkman
and Cullen S. Hendrix, “Food Insecurity and Violent Conflict:
Causes, Consequences, and Addressing the Challenges”,
Occasional Paper No. 24, World Food Programme, July
2011; Hendrix, C.S and Brinkman, H-J, “Food insecurity and
conflict dynamics: causal linkages and complex feedbacks”,
High-Level Expert Forum, Rome, 13-14 September 2012; and
Mark Notaras, “Food Insecurity and the Conflict Trap”, Our
World, 31 August 2011.
13
Marco Lagi, Karla Z. Bertand and Yaneer Bar-Yam, “The Food
Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle
East”, New England Complex Systems Institute, 28 September
2011.
11. Similarly, the Special Rapporteur on the right
to food noted, during his mission to the Syrian Arab
Republic, that the impact of successive droughts
had been dramatic for both small-scale farmers and
herders, who witnessed a vertiginous fall in their
incomes. Many families had been forced to reduce
food intake, surviving mainly on bread and sugared
tea, and to sell productive assets, which further
reduced their ability to restore their livelihoods in
the future. As education had become unaffordable
and extra labour necessary to generate revenue,
children were removed from schools. Some had
resorted to seasonal work, for instance as waged
farm workers on cotton fields or in the textile
industry in the Damascus area, while others had
migrated more permanently to the western part
of the country in the hope of finding employment,
despite generally low levels of qualifications and
without any kind of assistance (A/HRC/16/49/
Add.2, para. 13). The absence of measures to
counter the devastating effects of the droughts in
terms of access to food for all groups had created
the conditions which, combined with other factors,
triggered the civil war.
12. In its findings, the commission of inquiry on the
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea expressed
concern that structural issues, including laws and
policies that violated the right to adequate food and
freedom from hunger, remained in place, which
could lead to the recurrence of mass starvation in the
country (A/HRC/25/63, para. 55).
B. YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT
13. Worldwide, the enduring effects of the
financial and economic crises have led to a steep
rise in youth unemployment (see E/2013/82).
Some 67 million jobs have been lost since the
economic crisis of 2007, leading to rising levels of
hunger and homelessness, discontinuities in access
to adequate health care and education, greater
income inequality, and significant cuts in social
protection. The crisis has been a major setback for
the enjoyment of economic and social rights.16
14
Peter H. Gleick, “Water, Drought, Climate Change, and
Conflict in Syria”, July 2014; and Sarah Johnstone and
Jeffrey Mazo, “Global Warming and the Arab Spring”,
Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, vol. 53, No. 2 (AprilMay 2011).
15
6
International Labour Organization (ILO), Global Employment
Trends 2016, Geneva 2016. According to ILO, in 2015 the
number of unemployed people reached 197.1 million, almost
1 million more than in the previous year and more than 27
million higher than pre-crisis levels. The surge in the number of
jobseekers in 2015 mainly affected emerging and developing
countries.
16
© ILO/R. Bikhazi
7
© ILO/M.Crozet
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
14. Globally, there are 1.8 billion young people
between the ages of 10 and 24, most of whom in
developing countries.17 Numerous studies link youth
unemployment with social unrest and, in certain
cases, extremism.18 ILO, for instance, has confirmed
the clear connection between unemployment and
social unrest. After several turbulent years in the
aftermath of the crisis of 2007, dissatisfaction with
the economic and social situation was expressed
less and less in many regions; as the economic
situation began to deteriorate again in 2013,
particularly in developing economies, however,
social unrest began to spread once again. By
contrast, the signs of recovery in developed
economies has gone hand-in-hand with improving
social stability, while emerging economies have
shown little change. Unemployment among young
males, which remains high in developed economies,
is often a key driver behind political and social
movements.19
15. In Africa, 70 per cent of the population is
younger than 30, while slightly more than 20 per
cent are between the ages of 15 and 24. Youth
unemployment is compounded by its sheer extent,
which is considerably greater than in other regions.
Weak national labour markets and persistently high
levels of poverty has exacerbated the problem.20
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), The Power of 1.8
Billion: Adolescents, Youth and the Transformation of the
Future, 2014 State of the World Population Report.
17
See for example Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, “Greed
and Grievance in African Civil Wars”, Oxford Economic
Papers 56 (2004), pp. 563-595; Jacopo Ponticelli and HansJoachim Voth, “Austerity And Anarchy: Budget Cuts And
Social Unrest In Europe, 1919-2009”, December 2011; and
Horace Campbell, “Boko Haram: ‘Economic Fundamentalism’
and Impoverishment Send Unemployed Youths into Religious
Militias”, Global Research, 4 June 2014.
18
8
ILO, Global Employment Trends 2016 (see footnote 16), p. 22.
19
See Therese F. Azeng and Thierry U. Yogo, Youth
Unemployment and Political Instability in Selected Developing
Countries, African Development Bank Group, Working Paper
No. 171, May 2013; and Kingsley Ighobor, “Africa’s youth: a
‘ticking time bomb’ or an opportunity?”, Africa Renewal, May
2013.
20
16. A human rights response to youth
unemployment that provides for accountability in
the public and private sector, social investment,
improved job training and job creation policies, and
sound social protection systems is likely to reduce
significantly the risk of social unrest and violence.
C. HEALTH CRISIS
© UN Photo/Ari Gaitanis
17. As at March 2016, 28,603 confirmed,
probable and suspected cases of Ebola virus
disease have been reported in Guinea, Liberia and
Sierra Leone; at least 11,301 deaths have been
reported since the outbreak of Ebola in March
2014. Reports of civil unrest following heavyhanded measures by national authorities were
received from Guinea. The Ebola outbreak showed,
above all, that a failure to respect human rights in
implementing public health responses can lead to
social upheaval which, if not rapidly addressed,
may rapidly degenerate. Besides exposing the
weaknesses in the health systems of the affected
countries, both the evolution of the outbreak and the
public health responses to Ebola demonstrated the
need to protect fully the human rights of patients,
vulnerable populations, affected communities,
health-care workers and emergency responders.21
18. In the context of health crises involving
epidemics, and with a view to avoiding social
unrest or disturbances, accurate and comprehensive
information available to the public is essential,
including as a confidence-building measure,
particularly where mistrust in health-care workers
and authorities is pervasive. Information on
prevention, early diagnosis and treatment, and the
status of efforts to address the outbreak should be
a priority. Restrictions on freedom of movement as
part of the response to Ebola included a nationwide
curfew and a lockdown in Liberia. At the height of
the epidemic, reports from Sierra Leone indicated
that some individuals held in quarantine were not
receiving food, water or health care. In Liberia,
excessive use of force, including lethal force, was
alleged as a result of the involvement of the military
in enforcing quarantine zones.
Alicia Ely Yamin, “Ebola, human rights, and poverty – making
the links”, Open Democracy, 23 October 2014.
21
9
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
D. WATER CRISIS
19. Water-related disputes can lead to social
unrest and violent protest. For instance, in December
2007, in the State of Orissa, in India, 30,000
farmers clashed with the police because the
Government had decided to allow a large number
of industries to draw water from the Hirakud dam,
depriving the farmers of their source of irrigation.22
Fifty protesters were injured in the confrontation with
police.
20. Social unrest can also be provoked by poor
or inequitable management of water services.
Disputes may arise over water connections for
suburban or rural areas, service liability and, in
particular, prices. Given that the State is responsible
for providing drinking water, in many countries,
disputes over water supply management often arise
between communities and State authorities. Protests
are particularly likely when the general public
suspects that water services are being managed in
a corrupt manner or that public resources are being
diverted for private gain.
21. Problems arising from water supply
management can lead to violent conflict, as
witnessed during the confrontations that erupted
in 2000 in Cochabamba, the third-largest city
in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, following
the privatization of the city’s water utility.
Cochabamba had long suffered from water
scarcity and the irregular provision of water
services. With the aim of securing improved
services and higher connection rates, the
Government signed a 40-year concession contract
in September 1999 with the international private
water consortium, Aguas del Tunari. By January
2000, drinking water tariffs had increased
sharply and some households had to devote
a significant share of their monthly income to
paying for water services. Consumers, feeling
that they were simply paying more for the same
poor-quality services, responded with strikes,
roadblocks and other forms of civil protest that
shut the city down for four days in February
2000.23
“30,000 farmers demand Hirakud dam water”, India
Environment Portal, 30 December 2007.
22. Farmers from surrounding municipalities
joined the protest in Cochabamba, which then
spread to other parts of the country. Months of civil
unrest culminated in the decision of the Government
to send the army into Cochabamba and to declare
a state of emergency throughout the country. Several
days of violence left more than 100 people injured
and one person dead. The protests eased only after
the Government agreed to revoke the consortium’s
concession and to return management of the utility
to the municipal authorities.
E. DISPLACEMENT AND FORCED EVICTIONS
23. Forced evictions and displacement from homes
and land are a major cause and consequence
of violence, social unrest and conflict around the
world.24 When conflict ends, unresolved disputes
over housing, land and property prevent durable
solutions for returning populations and threaten
peace and stability in the country.
24. According to the Office of the United Nations
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the
number of people forcibly displaced at the end
of 2014 had risen to 59.5 million, from 51.2
million in 2013.25 It is not unusual for displaced
persons to endure multiple forced displacements,
including from camps or informal settlements.
Tensions often arise between host communities and
displaced persons, who may face discrimination,
stigmatization and social exclusion.
25. Although forced evictions are often ordered
in the name of development and infrastructure
projects, to serve the “public good” or “public
interest”, protection or procedural guarantees and
due process are often not provided for the most
vulnerable; this is the case of many development
and infrastructure projects, such as large dams or
extractive industries, large-scale land acquisitions,
urban renewal, city beautification or major
international business or sporting events, such as
the Olympic Games. The temporary or permanent
removal of individuals, families and/or communities
from their homes and/or land that they occupy
against their will is often carried out without legal or
other forms of protection.
22
Annika Kramer et al, “The key to managing conflict and
cooperation over water”, A World of Science, vol. 11, No. 1
(January-March 2013),
23
10
See OHCHR, Forced Evictions, Fact Sheet No. 25/Rev.1, pp.
12-15.
24
UNHCR, Internally Displaced People Figures.
25
26. According to the basic principles and
guidelines on development-based evictions and
displacement, forced evictions intensify inequality,
social conflict, segregation and “ghettoization”,
and invariably affect the poorest, most socially and
economically vulnerable and marginalized sectors
of society, especially women, children, minorities
and indigenous peoples.26
27. Discrimination is frequently a factor in forced
evictions. Discrimination means any distinction,
exclusion or restriction, made on the basis of various
grounds, that has the effect or purpose of impairing
or nullifying the recognition, enjoyment or exercise
of human rights. It is linked to the marginalization
of specific population groups and is generally at the
root of fundamental structural inequalities in society.
Discrimination can exist in either the public or the
private sphere, and rights may be violated through
the direct or indirect action or omission by the State,
including through its institutions.
28. Land can be a major source of conflict
and disputes. Social unrest and conflict over
land sometimes break out when the rights of
A/HRC/4/18, annex I, para. 7.
© ILO/M.Crozet
26
indigenous peoples are not adequately protected or
recognized. Indigenous peoples are entitled to all
human rights, including those specifically applicable
to them, such as rights that recognize the distinctive
cultural relationship that indigenous peoples have
with their traditional lands and the protection
from displacement that they require. According
to the United Nations Declaration on the Rights
of Indigenous Peoples, indigenous peoples enjoy
special protections to ensure that actions that result
in dispossessing them of their lands are prevented
or remedied. In this context, indigenous peoples
cannot be forcibly removed from their lands without
free, prior and informed consent and after having
agreed on just and fair compensation.27
29. Where land grabbing and large-scale
development projects without meaningful
consultation or effective grievance mechanisms are
allowed, States fail to comply with their human
rights obligations and could contribute to future
unrest and potential conflict.
See general recommendation No. 23 of the Committee on the
Elimination of Racial Discrimination, and the Indigenous and
Tribal Peoples Convention, 1989 (No. 169) of the International
Labour Organization.
27
11
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Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
III.Conflict prevention and
early warning mechanisms
A. HUMAN RIGHTS UP FRONT INITIATIVE AND THE
INTER-AGENCY STANDING COMMITTEE
30. Early warning can be understood as the
process of collecting and analysing information in
relation to the causes of crisis for the purpose of
identifying and recommending strategic options
for preventive measures. Alerting the international
community to emerging issues is a critical part of
the prevention and management of violent conflicts,
humanitarian crises, natural disasters and other
situations of concern at the local, regional and
global levels.
31. Some voices within the United Nations have
played an early warning role. Already In 1994,
the Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary
or arbitrary executions warned of the impending
genocide in Rwanda (see E/CN.4/1994/7/
Add.1).28 In both the report of the independent
See Micah Zenko and Rebecca R. Friedman, “UN Early
Warning for Preventing Conflict”, International Peacekeeping,
vol. 18, No. 1 (February 2011), pp. 21-37; and Security
Council Report, “Human Rights and the Security Council – An
Evolving Role”, 25 January 2016.
28
12
inquiry into the actions of the United Nations during
the 1994 genocide in Rwanda (see S/1999/1257,
annex) and the report of the Secretary-General
on the fall of Srebrenica (A/54/549), it was
emphasized that the United Nations had failed
to pay due attention to warning signs and to take
appropriate steps in response. In 2012, the Internal
Review Panel of the Secretary-General on United
Nations Action in Sri Lanka highlighted in its
report, yet again, that the response of the United
Nations to the emerging crisis in Sri Lanka had
been inadequate, as it had failed to act upon early
warning signs.
32. The above-mentioned report on Sri Lanka, in
particular, led to the creation, in 2013, of the plan
of action for the Human Rights Up Front initiative,
which was designed to strengthen the response of
the United Nations to crisis situations at different
levels. The initiative requires the United Nations
system to be alert to deteriorating human rights
situations, and calls for effective early warning
channels and better coordination, including by
generating political support for early warning
and preventive action. At the country level,
United Nations country teams are expected to
undertake a periodic analysis of risk factors and
to remain attentive to the risk of serious human
rights violations. The risk analysis is supported by
a human rights analysis conducted by OHCHR. If
concerns are identified, a United Nations country
strategy is developed to mitigate risks, while
programming and advocacy activities are adapted
accordingly.29
33. Prevention is the fundamental premise of the
Human Rights Up Front initiative, which has the
objective of changing the way the United Nations
responds to its protection responsibilities under
the Charter of the United nations, promoting more
cohesive, cross-cutting and horizontal action in an
effort to engage collaboratively with regard to the
three pillars of United Nations action: peace and
security, development, and human rights.
34. During the interactive dialogue with the General
Assembly on the Human Rights Up Front initiative
at Headquarters in January 2016, the Deputy
Secretary-General explained how the initiative aimed
For example, the commission of inquiry on the Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea called upon the United Nations
to adopt and immediately apply a common Human Rights
Up Front strategy to ensure that all engagement with the
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea effectively took into
account and addressed human rights concerns, and to prevent
the recurrence or continuation of crimes against humanity (A/
HRC/25/63, para. 94 (g)).
© ILO/M.Crozet
29
to recognize how violations of economic, social and
cultural rights were at the root of crises and conflict,
adding that violations of the rights to property,
education and employment had often marginalized
entire communities, leading to failed development,
social and political crises and even to conflict.
35. Other early warning mechanisms include
those deployed in the humanitarian sphere through
the Inter-Agency Standing Committee. Every six
months, the Committee issues an early warning
report, prepared by a group of United Nations
analysts, of which OHCHR is an active member, in
which it examines the upcoming six-month period
to ensure readiness to respond. The process brings
together information from across the United Nations
humanitarian system and from international nongovernmental organizations, and shares individual
analysis and methodologies to address situations
of serious concern. In turn, it informs decisions on
where resources and attention should be focused. In
this way, the Committee seeks to deliver a detailed
but concise assessment of potential situations of
concern and the readiness of the United Nations
to respond accordingly, including by means of
updated contingency plans and relevant advanced
preparedness action.
13
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
B. OFFICE OF THE SPECIAL ADVISER ON THE
PREVENTION OF GENOCIDE AND THE SPECIAL
ADVISER ON THE RESPONSIBILITY TO PROTECT
36. The Special Adviser on the Prevention of
Genocide, appointed for the first time by the
Secretary-General in 2004 (see S/2004/567), has
a mandate to raise awareness of the causes and
dynamics of genocide, to alert relevant actors where
there is a risk of genocide, and to advocate and
mobilize for appropriate action.
37. The Special Adviser on the Responsibility to
Protect, appointed for the first time in 2007 by the
Secretary-General (see S/2007/721), plays the
lead role in the conceptual, political, institutional
and operational development of the responsibility to
protect.
38. The mandates of the two special advisers are
distinct but complementary. Their efforts include
alerting relevant actors to the risk of genocide,
war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against
humanity. They have the role of strengthening the
capacity of the United Nations to prevent these
crimes, including their incitement, and to work
with Member States, regional and subregional
mechanisms, and civil society bodies to develop
more effective responses to situations when they
arise.
39. The Office of the Special Adviser on the
Prevention of Genocide and the Special Adviser
on the Responsibility to Protect gathers information
from a variety of sources. The mandate given by the
Secretary-General focuses on the collection existing
information, in particular from within the United
Nations system. The Office has also developed
a network of external sources of information. All
sources are reviewed on a daily basis by the
Information Manager Officer, then distributed to
geographical focal points, who also search actively
for relevant information on situations of concern.
The methodology assumes that atrocity crimes are
not isolated or random events but rather complex
processes that involve time, planning, resources
and support, and a suitable environment. In this
way, throughout the process it is possible to identify
early warning signs or indicators that can trigger
preventive action by States and the international
community.
40. The Office collects information on situations
at risk of deterioration into genocide, war crimes,
ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity
14
on the basis of factors outlined in the Framework
of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes.30 Owing to the
sensitive nature of the mandate, much of the Office’s
work remains unseen by the general public. When
the special advisers deem, however, that making
their concerns public might reduce the risk of
atrocity crimes from being committed in a specific
situation, they may take the extraordinary step of
issuing public statements and, upon request, brief
the Security Council.
41. On the basis of the Framework, the
information-gathering system assesses a variety
of factors; some are related to the risk of armed
conflict, others to situations that place a State under
stress and create an environment conducive for
the commission of atrocities. Others pertain to the
state of respect and compliance with human rights
obligations, including economic, social and cultural
rights; to the strengths and weaknesses of key State
institutions; to gaps in societal resilience or sources
of mitigation; and to possible triggers of violence.
C. SPECIAL PROCEDURES
42. The special procedures of the Human Rights
Council, which include special rapporteurs,
special representatives of the secretary-general,
independent experts and working groups, monitor
and report publicly on thematic issues or human
rights situations in specific countries. When mandate
holders become aware of a situation that could lead
to an escalation of human rights violations, violence,
social unrest and conflict, they can draw attention to
the situation by means of regular reports, submitted
to the Human Rights Council and the General
Assembly, urgent appeals and letters of allegation.
43. Special procedure mechanisms can raise
concerns about allegations of violations of human
rights covered by their mandates directly with
Governments by means of urgent appeals and other
communications. Interventions can relate to human
rights violations that have already been committed,
are ongoing or that could be committed. The process
involves addressing a letter to the State concerned
that describes the facts of the allegation, applicable
international human rights norms and standards,
the concerns and questions of the mandate holder,
and a request for follow-up action. Communications
Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes: a tool for
prevention, United Nations, 2014.
30
© UN Photo/Arnold Felfer
may pertain to individual cases, general patterns of
human rights violations, cases affecting a particular
group or community, or the content of draft or
existing legislation, policy or practice considered not
to be fully compatible with international human rights
standards. In some cases, communications are also
sent to intergovernmental organizations or non-State
actors.
44. A number of examples demonstrate the actual
or potential role that the special procedures play
in early warning processes. In 2010, the Special
Rapporteur on the right to food identified food
insecurity in the Syrian Arab Republic as a possible
trigger of conflict (see para. 11 above). The Special
Rapporteur on adequate housing as a component
of the right to an adequate standard of living, and
on the right to non-discrimination in this context
warned against the exclusionary and inequitable
land tenure system in Indonesia (A/HRC/25/54/
Add.1, para. 55). In particular, the mandate
holder highlighted how the conversion of land use
had had a significant impact on the land rights of
forest-dependent communities; for example, palm oil
production was as a main factor in changes to forest
land use. Lack of consultation, failure to respond to
complaints and an ineffective judiciary had led to
public demonstrations and the blocking of roads in
protest at the acquisition of the land.31
45. In 2013, the Special Rapporteur on the
rights of indigenous peoples urged the authorities
of Honduras to protect indigenous human rights
defenders from reprisals (see A/HRC/27/52/
Add.4). In particular, he referred to the need to
protect Berta Cáceres, who opposed the Aqua
Zarca dam project on the Gualcarque River, which
is sacred to the indigenous Lenca people. After
years of threats, Ms. Cáceres was killed in March
2016.
46. Effective channels of communication and
institutionalized cooperation for preventive action
should be enhanced to ensure that institutions and
entities working on early warning in political, social,
economic and other relevant areas, and notably
in the peace and security field, take serious and
systematic note of the information provided by the
special procedures.32
See Marcus Colchester, Palm oil and indigenous peoples in
South East Asia, International Land Coalition, January 2011,
p. 12.
31
See OHCHR, “Round Table on Special Procedures: Early
Warning and Emerging Issues”, summary, 23 October 2009.
32
15
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
IV.Risk factors and indicators
47. Acts of violence, social unrest and conflict
may break out in countries with various levels of
development, political and governance systems,
and population demographics. No single universal
model can predict with certainty where and when
unrest and conflict will erupt in the absence of
preventive measures. Nevertheless, some core
elements regarding economic, social and cultural
rights, often at the heart of social unrest and conflict,
as outlined above, could effectively inform early
warning analysis and preventive efforts.
48. The expert meetings on human rights and
early warning, organized by OHCHR in 2015
and held in Geneva from 8 to 10 July and in
Bangkok from 16 to 18 November, were seminal
in identifying key risk factors for instability linked
to human rights, in particular economic, social
and cultural rights, although a comprehensive
methodology on the integration of human rights
into early warning analysis is yet to be developed.
In the section below, a number of risk factors and
indicators that could be taken into consideration are
highlighted.
49. OHCHR has established a conceptual
and methodological framework for developing
human rights indicators.33 It includes three types
of indicators (structural, process and outcome)34
used to assess tangible measures taken to redress
inequalities and to ensure the realization of human
rights for the entire population. The framework uses
different sources of data, and calls for human rights-
based approaches in data collection and monitoring
efforts.35
50. Certain risk factors are cross-cutting and
could be considered in any situation, while others
are specific to certain contexts. Cross-cutting
risk factors include severe inequality, lack of
access to effective grievance mechanisms, lack
of meaningful consultation, lack of democratic
space for an active civil society and lack of media
independence. Thematic risk factors include
unequal access to natural resources, in particular
land, and degradation in social services and
unemployment.
A. CROSS-CUTTING RISK FACTORS
1. Severe inequality
51. Severe inequality, particularly horizontal
inequality,36 between different groups is considered
a contributing factor to most modern-day conflicts.
It can be multi-dimensional, with economic,
political, social and cultural dimensions. Economic
inequality between ethnic groups, for example,
heightens the likelihood of internal conflict.
Given that, from a human rights perspective,
discrimination is a significant driver of inequality,
clear indicators could be developed to evaluate the
action of the State to redress it. In considering the
existence of this risk factor, certain indicators could
be particularly revealing, such as the proportion
of people living below 50 per cent of median
income, disaggregated on the basis of age, sex
and disability, or the percentage of the population
reporting within the past 12 months personal
experience of discrimination or harassment
prohibited under international human rights law
(see E/CN.3/2016/2/Rev.1, annex III, target
16.b).
OHCHR, Human Rights Indicators: A Guide to Measurement
and Implementation, United Nations, 2012.
33
Structural indicators reflect the stated commitment of the State
to the human rights issue through ratification of international
treaties, adoption of laws and policies, or the establishment of
relevant institutions or mechanisms; process indicators measure
how such commitments are translated into practice, for
example, through allocation of financial and human resources,
ensuring the proper functioning of institutions, coverage
of targeted population groups under public programmes,
addressing complaints, and awareness-raising of targeted
populations; while outcome indicators capture the results of
the measures taken in terms of the realization of human right
from the perspective of rights-holders, for example, in terms
of health outcomes, educational achievements, reported cases
of torture and miscarriage of justice, or redress provided to
victims of human rights abuses.
34
16
See OHCHR, “A Human Rights-Based Approach to Data”,
Guidance Note to Data Collection and Disaggregation,
February 2016.
35
See Frances Stewart, Graham Brown and Luca Mancini,
“Monitoring and measuring horizontal inequalities”,
Centre for Research on Inequality, Human Security and
Ethnicity Overview, No. 4, June 2010; Christopher Cramer,
“Does inequality cause conflict?”, Journal of International
Development, vol. 15, No. 4, 2003, pp. 397-412; and Stewart
et al, “Why Horizontal Inequalities Matter: Some Implications
for Measurement”, Centre for Research on Inequality, Human
Security and Ethnicity Overview, Working Paper No. 19, June
2005.
36
© ILO/K.Cassidy
17
17
© UNFPA/A. Cullen
© UN Photo/WFP/Amjad Jamal
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
2. Lack of access to effective grievance mechanisms
3. Lack of meaningful consultation
52. Grievance mechanisms, whether judicial and
non-judicial, are a key element of accountability,
providing redress to victims and holding those
responsible to account. Access to justice is
crucial in enabling persons to break the cycles
of discrimination and marginalization. Justice
delivery involves the ability of the State to ensure
the peaceful resolution of disputes, the prosecution
and punishment of crimes, and effective remedies
for violations of rights. The independence of the
judicial system, alongside its impartiality and
integrity, is a prerequisite for upholding the rule of
law and ensuring that there is no discrimination
in the administration of justice. Barriers to justice
mechanisms are still widespread, especially for
women, children, minorities, migrants, persons
with disabilities, older persons, the poor and
marginalized groups.37 In such cases, in order
to assess the existence of a risk factor, a process
indicator that considers the proportion of
complaints, disaggregated by group, could give
a very detailed description of those with limited,
negligible or no access to redress mechanisms.
53. The lack of effective and meaningful
consultation of persons in decision-making and
the failure to respect the right to free, prior and
informed consent of indigenous peoples could
create conditions for an escalation of human rights
violations, violence and social unrest. To assess
this risk factor, a process indicator could reveal
the number of public consultations held on specific
policies or projects and the number of agreements
reached with the community on specific projects.
Public consultations for indigenous peoples should
respect the standards of the United Nations
Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples:
consultation through representatives chosen by
themselves in accordance with their own procedures
(art. 18); and through their own representatives
institutions in order to obtain their free prior and
informed consent (art. 19).
See OHCHR, Opening the Door to Equality: Access to Justice
for Dalit Communities, December 2011.
37
18
4. Shrinking democratic space for civil society
54. An active and functioning civil society is the
foundation for ensuring the accountability of the
Government and its laws and policies. Civil society
can help to assess whether commitments have been
fulfilled, and whether the human rights obligations
of a State have been fully met. The criminalization
of the activity of human rights defenders could well
prepare the ground for violence against them and
social unrest. A useful indicator for such a risk factor
would be the number of verified cases of killing,
kidnapping, enforced disappearance, arbitrary
detention and torture of journalists, associated
media personnel, trade unionists and human rights
advocates in the previous 12 months (see E/
CN.3/2016/2/Rev.1, annex III, target 16.10.1).
in such cases could be the ranking of the country in
the World Press Freedom Index or the adoption of
constitutional, statutory and/or policy guarantees for
public access to information (see E/CN.3/2016/2/
Rev.1, annex III, target 16.10.2).
5. Freedom of the media
56. Issues relating to access to land and natural
resources can be at the core of violence and
conflict, especially in regions where people depend
on land as a source of livelihood and food. Unequal
access, control and ownership over land and natural
resources, and failure to distribute fairly the benefits
deriving from investment or development projects,
have in many situations led to violence, social unrest
and conflict. Growing inequality can be further
exacerbated by a lack of adequate compensation,
decent work opportunities or adequate alternatives
for resettlement for those affected or dispossessed of
land. The militarization or securitization of business
© UN Photo/JC.McIlwaine
55. Freedom of speech for the media is a key
factor in ensuring government accountability and
in making the views and situations of marginalized
populations visible. The media can also play a
powerful role in stigmatizing a particular group.
In some countries, for instance, indigenous
communities have been accused of opposing
progress when they protest against development
projects. In others, those receiving social security,
including persons with disabilities, have been
stigmatized by both the media and politicians,
resulting in attacks against them. Useful indicators
B. THEMATIC RISK FACTORS
1. Unequal access to natural resources
19
20
© UN Photo/Martine Perret
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
operations, including more frequent recourse to the
employment of security guards, creates conditions
that could lead to confrontations with the local
community. Revealing indicators could be the
number and quality of independent environmental
and social impact assessments of business activities,
especially those requiring land and water, and
the effective participation of persons affected by
land reform policies and programmes. Outcome
indicators could include the proportion of urban
population living in slums, informal settlements or
inadequate housing (E/CN.3/2016/2/Rev.1,
annex III, target 11.1); the number of subsistence
farmers; and the proportion of land being used by
the extractive industry.
2. Degradation in social services and
unemployment
57. The lack of or degradation in social services,
including in the event of austerity measures, and
the effects of privatization on the availability and
accessibility of essential services have in some
countries contributed to violence and instability,
as outlined above. The establishment of a social
protection floor could help to prevent unrest and
violence. Certain structural indicators could in
this regard evaluate the adoption of relevant
legislation to guarantee the rights to social security,
health and education; process indicators could
reveal the proportion of the budget allocated
to health, education and social security; while
outcome indicators could provide information on
the coverage of social security and the number
of persons entitled to benefits compared to those
in need. Outcome indicators could also comprise
unemployment rates, including long-term (a year or
more of unemployment), in particular of young men,
in the targeted population group and education
level.
and the Special Adviser on the Responsibility to
Protect begins its examination of situations as soon
as potential concerns emerge. In its Framework of
Analysis for Atrocity Crimes, the Office emphasizes
that “the earlier the risk factors are identified, the
greater the opportunities for early prevention”.
59. Sharing information and managing data are
also crucial in early warning efforts. While United
Nations agencies and other organizations share
data, no common information management system
currently exists. A number of factors complicate the
development of such a common system, including
the lack of a uniform methodology in extracting the
necessary data, the varying degree of credibility
of sources and the related protection risks. In this
regard, under the Human Rights Up Front initiative,
OHCHR has been tasked to lead an inter-agency
effort to promote regular, common analysis of
information at the field level, and to ensure that this
information is transmitted rapidly to decision-makers.
60. The complexity, interdependence and
interaction of different elements explain why some
situations result in an escalation of human rights
violations, violent unrest and/or conflict while others
do not. An early warning analysis would take this
complexity into consideration and factor in a margin
of error, as in all forecasts.
C. CHALLENGES TO EFFECTIVE EARLY WARNING
ANALYSIS
58. At the expert meetings held in Geneva
and Bangkok (see para. 48 above), participants
highlighted one challenge pertaining to early
warning analysis, namely, timing and, in particular,
the definition of and actual time denoted by “early”.
This challenge is especially pertinent, given the
circular nature of many conflicts and the number
of ongoing protracted crises. The Office of the
Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide
21
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
V. Conclusions
61. The examples given in the present report,
on rights relating to food and health, water crises,
displacement and forced evictions, illustrate how
violations of economic, social and cultural rights
are often the root cause of violence, social unrest
and conflict. The analysis of economic, social and
cultural rights should therefore be at the forefront of
any national or international early warning effort.
62. In an early warning analysis, special attention
should be paid to such risk factors as severe
inequality, lack of access to effective grievance
mechanisms, lack of meaningful consultation, lack
of democratic space for an active civil society, lack
of independence of the media, unequal access to
natural resources, in particular land, degradation in
social services and rising unemployment.
22
63. United Nations preventive action would
benefit from a system-wide early warning
mechanism that would build on the Human Rights
Up Front initiative, drawing from existing sources
of information, including the special procedures.
A methodological framework for early warning
analysis should include human rights indicators
based on the OHCHR framework, emphasizing
economic, social and cultural rights, to help to
predict an escalation of human rights violations,
violence, social unrest and conflict.
The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner
for Human Rights (OHCHR) represents the world’s
commitment to universal ideals of human dignity.
It has a unique mandate from the international community
to promote and protect all human rights. Created in
1993, OHCHR is mandated to promote and protect
the enjoyment and full realization of all human rights
by all people. The mandate includes preventing human
rights violations, securing respect for all human rights,
promoting international cooperation to protect human
rights, coordinating related activities throughout the United
Nations, and strengthening and streamlining United
Nations human rights work. OHCHR also functions as
the secretariat of the Human Rights Council, the special
procedures mandate holders, the treaty bodies and the
Universal Periodic Review.
www.ohchr.org
Early warning and economic, social and cultural rights
Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights
Palais des Nations
CH 1211 Geneva 10 – Switzerland
Telephone: +41 22 917 90 00
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