fn emr country* w h eot-io another tnain food
i t s o b e s id e s rie a #
In th e o itu o tio n o f agoing psricoa
i t a hoording eon p ro b a b ly tali® p la c e with th e hop© o f
steal loin?! g r e a t e r p r o f i t s l o t e r on*
flto rc fo ro
m nt
o n ly to Me© advances eg a 1rust wheat wore forcogbt under
con trol*
Separate dote on advonceo ogolnsi; wheat
p r io r t® th e fo u r th q u a r t e r o f *S?«*5Q a r e not a u e ii~
ab le* hence I t i s n o t p o s s ib l e t o analyses th e b e h av io u r
o f c r e d i t and r e l a t e it w ith sssfe e t a r r iv a l in th e
p e rio d *-51-♦52 to *S?-»*$G#
However prices of wheat ware foiling upto first
half of *53-*56s though oaosonsi fluctuations were
there#
It t»|? bo noted that seasonal fluctuations in
prices indicate o negative percentage phongo in
the second qoariaro of these yaare#
oil
this io because
oil the second quarters of those years chaw <s tnoxicuo
positive percentage change in saorfcofc arrival*
Regulations aero affected with ttaa view of
315
preventing hoarding with the h a l p o f bank
finance*
OBI ©hanged i t s r e g u l a ti o n s fcceplng i n view th e p r ic e
lev© ! and' l e v e l o f m arket a r r i v a l#
Sot to g e th e r w ith
above o b je c tiv e s th e o b j e c ti v e s of h e lp in g g e n u in e
tr a d in g a c t i v i t y * h e lp in g developm ent o f w arehousing*
p ra o o tin g b ran c h e x p an sio n o f eaitssereio l b a n k s» h e lp ­
in g fto llo s flop© tn iilo # h slp lfjg
c e « a p e ro tiv » o a re e f ­
in g s e e i o t i e a e tc * ware a ls o so u g h t to be achieved#
fo g this,* exem ptions t& ouch advances wore provided#
A f e o r 19S<? h e l p i n g p r o c u r e m e n t b e c a m e a m a j o r o b j e c t i v e .
C a llin g o v e r bent? fa advances o g a in o t wheat* c e i l i n ')
o v e r advances to en in d iv id u a l and snorgio o re th e soolo
©f&plojmd*
M ff© ran f i c t i o n in c e i l i n g and m argin io
c a r r i e d o u t .to o u i t to th e d i f f e r e n t o b j e c ti v e s and sh e
o itw o tlo n *
Ur 1 3 th Septem ber 19S6* Steeerv© Dank o f Indio
I h e r e a f t e r c e l l e d H B f l n o t e d shot e v e n t h o u g h p r o d u c t i o n
» a o lowers
advances were higher o» c o l o r e d
e a r l i e r year#
to the
The Bangs p o in te d o u t t h a t on Augurs 26#
,
i
19SS odvaneoc l o v e l wots 12*2 craroo w h ile on 1?th
August; S99€# i t wag 10#9 erases-*
P ric e l e v e l which wap
a t 88 0 2 - 3 3 #» ?005 An th e acoond qu arter o f *96-*9?
wo© r is in g and «oc 30*6? in th e th ir d quarter#
The
Bon?? was o f th e o p in ion th a t th e p r ic e r ic e was*,
“influenced partly by speculative hoarding of ©taeui*
ft)
f a c i l i t a t e d by th o h ig h e r l e v e l o f bonk c r e d i t 18*
*
flQl p r e scr ib e d to rasa© fcfto ®ax$±n by 10 t< and
se?
-iacfividuoS, c a llin g fo r advances o f fa#SO#OS!!/-*
5ho
bank o ia o seq tiostsd to rsbtsce dj? the end o f October
19B6 advances to a l e v e l
n o t s u b s t a n t i a l l y h ig h e r
them ttafc in fch© oorw bponding «eek o f leofc y e a s.
Deoohd 3©©u®a«t«aty b i l l s m t® oxotapsed*
I t i s eicoi?
fsG© t h i s ostisop t th a t E'loosiyvs Bonk lock ed fir c n sa o
m i t a s r e iy .resqoeai&d suthem than d ir e c te d •
14 ©loo
0®soo th-sS th e bank eooiel n o t d e c id e U%c d-aoixoeJ le v a l
of Gdwemeoa wa i t did -not p r o s c rib e d any -DOMinyp fcotol
c e i l i n g b u t l o f t it to t t e d i s c r e t i o n '» f iiio banbo and
gu id ed in a l&qoa way#
I t w»s on Ttti June 13ST t h a t the' o o c lio r
d A re e tiv s woe w®di#A«sd smd o fso o h ana ic o u o d .
The
bank p o in te d out t h a t a d v o n ao a ■incsnoand by 0 to 9
c so r e s in the f i r s t fo r tn ig h t o f f-tny 193?*
«o a r r e s t
t h i s Aoer-ooas* i% wss do cidod to eaio© th o ©origin on
advene m a g o i^ o t wheat by 5 S? w ith a ©In louts par?) An of &
In d iv id u a l c e ilin g a t &«SQ«062/«* was .c o n tin u a l and banks
w ere aobatf to b rin g down t h o i r odvenceo by J u ly 12 and
in e v ery fartaeb tfoax&aftes? a t ?5 $ o f the l e v e l i n th e
cassaepam Jiag wo&k i n 1936#
wore ©Keepted*
OosjumS Bcicuta«fita*y b i l l o
t h i s d ir e c t iv e in -on Anprovopefift over
th e previous? on© in tho a anon t h a t Kfloioura isargin and
b a ilin g over advances are provided* .
v
I t so y fee p o t fed t h a t so fcb® 13 th Oepteoboc 1956
317
diuaetiws ccmld not contain the level of advances©*
the 7th dun© ItS? diraetiv© was? neeesodtry*
ftowever
the I » a l ©? advances could not be brought to the
dosi&Qd levsl*
Thewfrn?© on 31ot July IPS? uovernor
wrofia* -s ,orsli©inos?y ©jmcimatian of the figures for
the 1Sfib July 199? received fspsa banks indicotoo that
'taking scheduled banka so a whale* not only b®ve fib©
dia?e©t&ve not bean carried o«tf bat there boo actually
fe©©« en inereas© in advances on that date over the
caseareofsonding figures of leet year*
I feel bound to
oajr that 1 take a grove view of this oi filiation end if
reoedAd oetion io not ioDsdlefioiy taken* will hovo fto
©oneider what ©tope tfso CIDI should toko ogoinot
defaulting bnnko.
I euot reqwsat you to ©ah© an
immediate emaoinoilan of yang adv©ncoa portfolio and
to lot the Bank Isnow what otepo you bay© token or
propose to toko to keep an oanfirisity with 6ho diroctivo'-’
The prieeo war© foiling in fib© third and fourth
quartern of *S?» *SS and to aecessoodat© car-hot arrival
of booy eoaaon* HSI liberalised ita oasiics clirestive
©n Iffcb Oecoobsr 195?*
Margin and individual eoilimj
wdro kept unchanged* while it wao preaeribnd that froo
damiory 1950 far oaeh cssnth* fish© average aggregate level
of credit ©boll not ossceod SO t! of the ovorcigo of
advert©®© In th© corresponding nonfiha in *55» *56 and
J
SIB
IS&UuS&*JE*l
.................................................................... h
m
i t
2m MjLJ2$X~M
(Dose *32-*53 » 100)
* * •* * < * • * i* * * « i» * S | * ( « •* -* £ » » # f > « » i8 » . <M*
w «**- ** m s * « * - m *
Period &
(4«3#tW
f4*a
m
, '•I
P
C*r
C*
***S » « ? -S £ * f . 'jt f . '
19$1-52
n
4 2 ,4 2
« .A .
18*79
- 5 S .7 0
IV
3 1 .3 2
1
1932-53
II
H*A.
9 4 ,0 7
**
IS
9 4.33
-.3 6
6 7 .7 5
a
a
9 4 .0
-.3 $
3 6 .5 2
23.21
'
J
a
9 2 ,6
-2 .1 3
3 1 .5 5
- 1 6 .0 7
c?
f?
9 6 .0
4 ,3 5
III
3 0 .2 1
—4 .2 0
a
rt
1C®. 33
4."i1
IV
3 7 .2 9
23.44
tt
?i
1 0 1 ,6 7
1.34
1
1533-54
II
4 1 ,9 5
1 2 .53
cs
c$
102.67
.9 0
0 2 ,0 7
9 7 .5
17
ki
9 2 .3 3
—10* u?
3 4 .6 9
- 5 0 .1 4
a
15
9 3 .3 3
*1« t'U
39*55
14.01
«F
O
9 2 .0
-3 .4 9
9 .4 0
<3
rs
9 0 .3 3
—
■1. 0
102.95
137.76
ft
if
77 .S 7
- 1 4 .6 2
4 3 ,5 0
-5 7 .6 7
a
4 4,64
1.06
e*
f t
7 3 .6 7
i;}
45*90
4 ,4 1
f>
»
7 0 .0 0
1.131
1955-55
II
142 ,0 9
210,7?
C*
6C.67
III
41*13
- 7 1 ,2 2
O
6 0 .0
1 3 .0 0
4 2 .0
4 .0 6
r i
7S.0
10.29
45.24
5 .7 0
in
It!
IV
1
1954-55
a
in
IV
i
IV
I
• m ^ m - + * « * (*»#*•>,>» « n * w * a i
43*3
.<P*
8 * « g « » .w W
7 3 .6 7
a
S »«» «p* -a» * : *
tK p *a
a
<ab c y
o
«*■»»*-•
- 0 1{j
.
1.1. 133
00,0
a
r\
4 » K > a rt
*
fi
Index Watabarn of t-lerkat aggjya 1, C redit & Pried of Wheat
S e a s o ^ a ^ ,
B
a t a
CQodb *S2-*33* 1Q0
-
«*•«*»»•
«k>«* 9Bii.40kiMM«>«sar«r m c « « M l M r
Period &
ftuartay
M m M M C c* ^
m
.^4
195 U S 2
II
f-3p.4'jp
e*.»A
Cr
W « - «S> fc** « * » < * »
i'J
»
****«c=- -* «#» «p> «* « w
P
C*»
C’*
<*fl»trf**8***** Ssf Mm «M O e» <£» *
*-> <»«?. fW «a-a-,
n*a .
»
}
<i(a*> w v k * «*«*,*»<*>
*»$
r>
«y • * *
'
A
V*
SV * ‘
ih
*
1s «
- *
III
a
'S
IV
V
a
*„•?
I
1952-53
II
0
St
■J
*5
ft
t*
o
J
-1
in
<*
ft
.-•
■
■
(r.1 •
SI
t*
«*
il
t*
100,76
IV
00*29
I?
£?
’
7
101.18
.50
i
1:9S3-S4
n
f&« -4$
7.77
»*
p**
162.0
.01
146.33
53.79
€7
it
PG•S6
-5,04
in
76.76
-57.53
£1
tv
99* SS
2.70
IV
77.78
1,39
n
w
101.51
1.97
i
19S4-S3
1
11
76.5!)
-1,40
o
?>
ICS,35
5.70
104.77
145.93
ts
a
92*C
*4
ft
97.6?
D.25
«
101,03
3.44
57
1-06.93
3 04
-13.69
in
O- 1 w
67*99
-63*2
IV
69.36
2.02
i
1953~S6
II
70.88
2.08
£3
194.S4
174*77
It
4-f
93.36
III
67*87
-65.11
v*
81
97*11
IV
6S.7S
-3,12
8
&
101.0?
I
66.70
w
0
106.Q4
a
1
. 4
4
^ ^ * ^ ^ * * * * * 1®* «•<•■*«■*» *»#■«(*«> *g» >«/-** s c - * * * « o '= » ■ & » « » < -« * » x » e > * < e r f 4« 4ca < w v j « w * 5 5 - • » « « » « » >.=. • » • « « * « » to*
-11*91
.
4
. 0
2
4,00
5.71
*-**3* ,< * # * # * . <•»
320
to*♦MtaasarnaBl>iaagerqsHca«er^J>»»g*'W»<aa>«tJVftur-g?»<»»»wfr^a»ia> ga»w aq» qg-g> p »
«*.**»«*•*“* «***•<£*«»*.. *£»
S m s © n d Q a a s ts s
****<*«»«>* **»«**»•
C re d it
aw *»«»<*» «««?***» •e^aWe*
Fgo©
race
T©
«»< c**a ts» o»i«ai«*^fex${ tffy -c #
1951-S2
«r**!0 »«.& **£> a w m
^ n O 1 •»*»«*«■ !» w -ssoe-a « * ,.* * # .!£a«s*'r> f E ^ t f a ^ s o « i i a a w n #s» *9s.*s» s-> iw -
$952-53
II
1 .4
-3 S .6
III
6 0 .7 8
n
6.38
IV
13.31
D
8 .1 6
I
8 .9 3
t5
11.6
II
M 2.5B
=3
- 3 . 02
fit
14.03
S?
—4*90
IV
6 .0 6
1
3*19
1932-53
1933-S4
1953-34
\ 'l
-9 .6 1
ft
-1 2 .0 2
Q
-1 9 .8 6
19S4-5S
II
24.23
III
25.63
IV
11.35
1
6 .1 9
19S4-S5
tv
ft
-2 2 .7 2
■ -1 9 .9 2
-1 6 .9 7
19SS-SS
II
38.79
O
■ III
- 5 .6 2
P
- 7 . TO
- 2 .0 2
o
1.0
IV '
1
-2 1 .0 9
Cl
-1 .6 1
13.33
*■>*?«#*»#***«wW
M
»<n?j«^^w»t«nwK4e»'M
pi•»»»•«»*&»’*»«#fc*«*«» (,&«?«a«®twl■
■Credit g iv e n to th® H o lie s f l e a s trJLllo * Deco ml
aacw H shtary b l l l o
Ci)B' fe illa i* © ra d lt ew tsndod fey now
s f f i e s s o f tfo® banks opened a f t e r 1 s t Jomsasry 195? were
■oseropiet? fas® fcho re g u la tio n *
This d i r e c t i v e enhances
tb s f i s l d ©f ©Hooptod c o te g o rie a * ©hanged th e c o ilin g
p srS sd fro® tsfooii to ©oath and th e © o ilin g l e v e l £a
©banged frera ?S £ to 80 % o f feho s a fs c a n c e perio d #
'A©
fax
a s © ra d ii l e v e l i© concerned* i t s inco*
nw'Kbsr woe S0» 62 in th e f o u r th q u a rts® o f f9?«*, 3l.) ond
■csoe to 36*94 l a tb© f i r s t q u a r t e r o f *0?- ’50 and was
8?#2 i n th e aaooad quests® o f
*B
&<**59 *»
’Sine® th e
a a r t l a r f i g e r a s o ra n e t ©v&il&fel© essspasioon ©snoot bo
o e r s te d out* boaavar* i t
roj/
bo n o te d th a t* t h i n So a
r e l o c a t i o n la tbs re g u la tio n *
I t ©>sy a ls o fee n o te d Shot
tbo 0«©itp6ioo 'given to advances a g a in o i wesshouoe
r e c e i p t s g ra n te d to ric® woo a ls o ta®d© a p p li c a b l e fco
o h sot*
Through i i o 1 1 th S eceober 195? d i r e c t i v e th e
fionk hod estproased th e d o o i r e ' t h a t th e bank© sh o u ld
ennuss Shut th e s e i s tm undue s l o e i n advancer? p a r t i *
e u l a t l y in s u r p lu s s t a t e s *
Advance© g r a n te d to
e a sp B m tiv a ' aasit © ting' and p ro c e s s in g s o c le tie r; wore
eaonspfeed an dune 3* i960.
R e g u la tio n s ia p e o e d on H t h Soeae&or 19S7 ©e#o
Please refer to Table fJo* 6*4 end 6*6
322
T able Co.
lMto*_H»iabT O .ef-.JLar.fest,.ag g j val^_
fgifo&Jg£fcd£l
Period &
Quarter
1956-37
n
m
m
r*4
#»* « » < * * « * * W
w
« * » » * * « & »& *#* <m<**> « k <
Cr
C 'r
(»** J*
131,00
191,45
5 6 .7
-6 4 ,5 9
Ci.A.
-
t;: r j
33
V l u o e
k
i-1
»
0 0 ,0
C6.67
-..34
XV
45*62
-2 ,3 1
c?
tj
9 1 ,0
*• *i
i
1957-58
II
4 6 ,9 2
2,85
fl
6*
95.33
4.70
136.91
234,42
n
It
m
34,52
- 7 8 .0
0
9 0 ,6 7
60.33
**•. • r.«>r*jj
IV
39.47
14,34
5 0 ,6 2
«
8 7 .0
- 1 .; 1
i
1950-59
n
43.25
9 ,5 0
36,94
-2 7 .0 3
0 4 ,6 7
-3.6C
102,91
136*32
51*52
-4 9 .5 9
IV
4 8 ,0 S
I
1939-60
II
54.85
0 0 .3
3 .0 0
8 3 .2 3
10.54
101.3
14.77
- 6 .7 4
22.04
-6 5 .1 4
111.67
If.-.t'iC
48,37
.6 7
33,75
62.21
121.3
0.30
176,51
267.03
39.67
1C.97
0 0 .3
-2 1 .5 0
54.69
-6 7 ,3 6
40,23
31.63
98,33
1.4
IV
4 9 .6S
- 9 ,2 2
22. S?
-3 3 .2 3
9 0 .3
3*16
1
1960-61
II
4 9 .3 2
-0*66
23.02
1.99
06,33
- 1 .?
192,76
290.84
56,31
144.10
06,33
—!:■♦3
6 0 .0 2
-6 0 ,6 0
59.31
5 .5 2
90,67
2.60
3 2 ,6
-1 3 ,8 9
70.SC
19.00
69.67
—1.113
m
t i l
m
IV
I
**
^a-«aa w m e * * * * * * .
57*2
5 1 .0 0
44« «$7 -3 6 .9 0
1,40
-2 ,0 9
9 1 .0
►
^¥'SV«‘*»*W
«*=9M
»»*f»aw4*s<«»**•«»
<*k«>•»*<?
w«**m *»<m ew«-*¥*-- »»*»w*.
323
* Ko. 6.S
ls s i4 1 ^ B £ U a is a ^ i«
S e a so n al .Data
wsriawiiw M'*niM»j^iin'ii»m»<« hbh. m n u w »
«*>t**-*»«•• w* ■ « m w < » m r <rv <a»
oo> « * a * w w? *
m
q u o rts r
** «a» «* « a
*. *» w* 4«» s » « s
*
mm
a * » * » « * £ * * * « » * } > ■ « •» » * :
PJA
ft
i Boots *52- *53 « 1»J)
e2>*S**ftK* •» * * •* * » » » « * .« * «s
Cs
€*r
«# *M «* m «»*» * * a& «w•<*** i « . « £ « • £ » « r « 3 « a ^
JH a« ^* * * an s» « ?> «
1956-31
II
209*76
3 1 4 ,4 0
W .A ;
III
39*83
V ? 1 ,4 ?
5?
f?
iv
S fi.10
7 .2 3
n
i
69*?S
0 ,6 3
«
n
106*69
io a ;o ?
i n
67*46
- 6 5 ,7 0
IV
6 4 .9 9
-3 .f> 6
I
6 6 .3 3
2.-37
II
203*13
203*32
III
6 6 »-41
- 6 7 .3 !
IV
6 S .G 6
-5 ,-0 4
IS
1
6 3 ,7 9
1 .1 6
«
w
;
.
9 4 ,7 2
- 1 1 .3 4
9 0 .2 7
3 .7 5
n
1 0 0 .5 0
2 .3 3
n
1 0 3 .0 1
2 .4 2
9 7 .0 8
-5 .7 6
9 9 . ‘6 8
2 ,6 0
a
1937-30
t*
«t
tf
-(5 -
13
.
S*
1 02, G
5 ,1 3
1 0 4 .5 7
1 .7 2
9 5 .0 9
—3 , ' 0 0
1930-S9
*1
.
si
.
9 6 ,7 3
3 .C 3
t*
.
1 0 2 .3 9
3 .7 1
1 0 3 .8 5
1 .4 5
9 3 ,7 2
- 9 ,7 5
1 1 .2 2
3 9 .3 1
5 .6 4
1 0 2 .5 1
3 .3 3
1 8 6 .0
3 .4 0
n
105 9 -6 0
II
■0
2 0 1 .3 0 '
2 1 9 ,5 ?
1 1 6 .0 0
72.-3$
-6 4 .0 4
1 2 9 ,1
IV
69.•« 9
-1 6 .1 6
7 5 ,3 3
-4 1 .1 0
1
36 • 95
-7 ,tfS
6 9 .5 1
- 0 .4 7
290.36
112.-19
61*40
34,69
-6 8 ,8 9
132,93
18.43
PC. 1C
3* u9
SS. 26
-33*10
103,96
2* OS
i n
1966-51'
II
n i
IV
?%
i>
«• 41/ i
-0#^ a
60.01
36»S2
. 33.96
«Jfi*=3<SJ-Ci^istiaw*#»«-»•**««<»'.«S0»»<*»«*
i'
GC..S4 -3 4 .3 7
-u .S 4
»i0»>^rW
C<«r.*C«»*,
»<u^etc»A«*5*tKf.tcM«■«]«•*«■*£«W
103.4
-1 U .6 7
3.40
«a» *st>-«*>-»•.
3
12 ‘I
«».«#.<«*-moh* « r
c*4***w « *««*«»•
Y@3« an d t l o a r t e r
f» S 3
To
*•» £ » mu ,*«>. »& Jan-„ * « v « » <bv<«« »i<a-wa.m*«»w*-ca
1 9 5 3 -5 6
i Mt> « » j« * W * * * !* * * * ^ -* * «.\»W wd-te* .«?• «y*
ftasfe&t,
&SViMQ%
CS'®d i e
**> «» *•«*«& ***>»*
« ■ » « * .if e a - 4 - v ^ ^ ^ e au
^
f » o v ■*» <=» i s »’*
P r ie s
h m k
^ b i u-n■**.*+*& *» »?-*»#-«■&
1 0 5 6 -5 ?
II
-7*7
3 1 .6 6
III
1 3 .5 4
2 7 ,4 6
IV
S .5 9
#
2 1 .3 3
1
1956-5? 1957-38
11
3 .7 1
tJ
1 2 .1 5
0
1 3 ,3 4
•
III
- 2 6 .0 0
*3
1 .9 ?
' IV
-1 3 * 4 8
13
- 4 ,3 9
I
- 7 .0 2
1?
-1 1 .1 0
II
-3 4 .6 6
CS
- 2 .9 4
III
4 9 .2 5
IV
2 1 .7 4
-5 6 .4 6
2 0 .3 6
1
11*04
- 3 .2 2
4 2 ,9 1
il
7 4 .6 5
- 3 0 . 6S
7 .9 9
III
6.15,
- 2 3 .6 f
- 4 .6 2
1 9 5 7 -5 8
1 9 S 8 -3 9
1938-59
14.3 4
1959-60
IV
J .3 3
1,
1 ,9 6
-3 5 .6 1
- 2 0 ,3 9
11
7 .9 0
4 1 .6 9
-7 .0 2
111
1 8 .6 6
2 2 , 92
-5 .0 8
tv
5*94
2 1 2 .7 2
- 8 .5
1
3 .S ?
9 3 .1 0
- 5 ,5 3
1989-60
« ■ » * & » « S » ««(• •
1 0 .9 0
2 .4
-1 2 ,2 4
1960-61
'f
h
3 1 J
325
tssiftioinod upio lQtf> Saptsabs® i960 with ainosr .eotfv*
ficatlono» bat in^fehe sseanfeine prices as wail ass level
o f advsoe&o wss?e rioing*
Price indax of wheat in She
third quartos- of *S6« *59 showed o growth rate of 14*34
over the psavloaa year ond it was ©till ricing*
Credit level which wuo 36.94 in the flrat quertar of
,0T»sSG cats© to S7.3 end S3*S3 in the second ond third
quartern of *SG~*39«
Thor®f©*e# 001 pr-steicihed a now
directivo on 10th September 1950,
It woo p s m e x ibnd
that fro© tletebsr 193(3,. for ©oeh aenth avsrag© aggregate
level of credit against wheat in Punjab ao well, oo for
the root ospasmtely not to ■exceed 66-8/3 '/ of'the
overage aggregate level of credit ogainet whaot in the
corresponding. oonth -of *3?* ,.Et cby-be noted that a
£«p3«ate csiiing for feedgroino other than poddy ond
eice. ond wheat woo eloa prescribed.
09 hiilc*
cooperatives; and advances 050*11®t warehouse rocoiptc,
advonceo of new offices of ben!?a -and advances to nailer
finer mllio were exaroted fsos the regulations*
This
tightening, it ©eo»s9 was effective end the credit level
coos dawn to .92.04 in .the. fourth quartos of *00- *39
showing © -65*14 percentage change over the previous
quartos as -56*46 annual growth rate*-
r-rlom however
continued to rise and the pries index was 111*6? in
th® fourth quarter of, -99£J»*S9 stowing a 20*36 growth
rote which■la highest
00
for*
for the aaoo period
growth rot© of ineorao i© 9*?4 and growth rate of wholesale
price ,i© 4*00®
3 LJv
t
32 o
In view of tho fact that price® of wfieat were
showing an upward trend, HD2 continued the controls*
Therefore on hecentber 29, 1993, through e directive,
aorgio woe continued .at 40 c.
j end the Dank also pros­
cribed a coiling from January 1959, for each rontb*
which should not exceed outstanding advances of bon>»
in the corresponding i&amth of *90, subject to the
condition that the average aggregate advancea in
r'onjob should not exceed their outstanding total in
the corresponding month in 1958,
Individual ceiling
of Rj,65#S00/«* was continued,
the exemption© provided
earlier were also continued.
Credit level coco to
35,?B in the first quarter of *50-*39 ©bowing o growth
rate of -3,22 while growth sate of oar feet arrival ftjr
the some period io 11*C4 and the growth rate of price
index of wheat ie 42,91, indicating that credit is
definitely under check and the higher level of pries
is duo to increased demand and such other factors.
Credit level coop to 39*6? in the second quarter of
*99-*60 indicating a -30,65 growth rate oo against
?4,65 growth rate in ****;«i arrival for the oame period.
Growth rat© of wheat price index for the opcond quarter
of *59-**60 is ?*5S*
It may be noted, however, that
price level wee 131 in the first quarter of *30* *3a and
was 95 in the second quarter of *59-*60, showing »
-21*49 percentage change and index number of norket
arrival wao <79,31 in the second quarter of *59**6"
S"/
127
showing « 267#05 plus percentage change over the
previous* qussre«r#
The c u r r e n t i spend o f darkest a r r i v a l
end t h e p r i e s needed some c o lo r a ti o n i n th e c r e d i t
r e g u l a ti o n s to ■secaesnodate h ig h e r l e v e l o f m arket
a r r i v a l#
■■m
soon uo th e rotate Governmenlo a d o p te d
procurem ent progruasaea* th e c r e d i t r e g u l a ti o n s were
m o d ified to em it th e method o f reitoburaeisool ad o p ted
b
y
a p a r tic u la r s ta te #
In view o f t h t a , a d i r e c t i v e
w»b io d o e J on iB tb J u ly 1985#
In d iv id u a l c o il i n g o f
ns*30*©09/« was w ithdraw n b u t ©begin woo m a in ta in e d a t
40 'It* w h ile p ro v id in g f o r
a
m argin o f 2S •" f o r a to r a g e
d e liv e r y c o n tr a c to r a o p e ra tin g on b e h a lf o f th e •, u n ja b
Ciovernesenfe#
Instead of all Indio ceiling now o two fold
classification was adapted#
'Hanbo were noted to
maintain in each month commencing from August 10f?!? an
average aggregate level of credit which ahall not
exceed for H I
Punjab* Himachal Pradesh* Delhi ond
Jarsou and Heehmitf 75 rS of the overage aggregate level
of credit maintained in the cores©pooding nonth in *5C#
for Punjab an additional average aggregate level of
credit equal to 25 7? of the ectuol maintained in the
corresponding month in 1958 wan permitted For storage
delivery contracture*
(21 for other ntaten* overage
328
@g§r©0 afee l&voi of credit ociyClly meintainad'by the
bonk in She corrsaponding nsonth of 19S8 «»a prescribed
ns exiling*
Ttiia dl»«etivs also prescribed aoparut#
esiiiftg© foe abbas footlgsoino*
givso enrlior war© continued*
All, tbo ©scrap$ion©
Two fold cionaificofelon
of th© atotoo and additional credit for Punjab arc tbo
noted fcafecraa ©f tblc regulation*
It is also worth
noting that Individual coiling ia now withdrawn and
feargln ia also tractad diffsrsntially*
Do the whole
there io &ora© tightening for wheat producing 0 totoo.
Credit lews! cates to 48.25 in the third quarter
of *5S>*tS8 with the growth rate of «*23«69*
Linking
this with growth rate of feast.®t arrival, ©f ?4,oS In
the aceond quarter o f ’S O - *60 it can fo© deduced that
the credit isolicy wo® highly stmts!etive*
Credit level
woo-23*S7 end 23*02 in the fourth and first quartern of
*59** *$0 ©hawing e growth rate of 2*04 and -35*C1
respectively*
Market arrival retained high®* in all
tho qtsoriers of *39«*iSG ever 'StV^Sg*
'Price level
retrained lower in oil tho quarters of ‘S S ^ C O es
cbfflperod to *S0«» *39 eweept during tho second quarter*
Ssotgih rats- of price index in *59-* *60 w©o -4U6J?,, **13.24,
**20*39 in tho third, fourth end first quortoro of *50*» ♦68*
It was also <*?*B2 in tho second quarter of 1‘50^,G1*
In fact It say b© daduead froia the above that
the directive of 10 th July 1929 was restrictive fr&n
320
bath i30j?fe©& arrival m
view®,
well os price level point of
farfeat arrival woo 19?*?6 in the second quorter
of *6Ck *61 # showing « 290*04
positive, percentage
change over the preview® quarter or 7*90 growth rate,
Level ©f credit coco to S6*21 in the oecond quarter
of *fi0«*61 showing a growth rote of 41*69.
The direct­
ive ©f 10th July 1959 bed provided none concession for
Punjab and certain exceptions• the advantage of which#
it eeemo# is now token*
of the
Lions®*
It also oaemo that the bulb
rice in credit must have gene;procurement opera-Price level at 00*33 in the oeeomt quarter
of *60-*61 showed a -0*3 11 change over the previous
quarter and seasonal indicia® also showed a high level
of market arrival and comparatively low level Of prices
for tho second quarter of *60*-*6 f*
R0I codified its regulations on 20th ^uguot 1960
which were to cats® in force from ueptetsber 1960.
She
Bank pointed out shot'the supply position was eaoforiobl©
end the import of PL 480 wheat was libaiy to case the
situation*
Margin was maintained at 40 0 with 25 -, for
storage delivery contractors*
It was prescribed that
fro© September 1960# for each month an overage aggregate
Sk.sul,{
lave! of credit eh#£i not exceed the average aggregate
level of credit actually
mainioiaed by a benfc in aha
corresponding month In 1050*
* Pleooe refer to Appeals Oo # 6 for figures of orceute»ont*
7
3 oO
TMe raison© separata ceiling iisito fct a totoo
up© now withdrawn.
Exemptions
for Roller flour ©Slid
end other ©sooptions war© continued.
It raoy be noted
that separate ceiling fer otaiso ware raainieisisd for
ofches foodgraineS.
In brief* the directive m
far os
eeiiiof io concerned sod® relaxations in tho a one a that
'
!
instead of TS $ pros bribed in the earlier directive for
Punjab etc© thie diractive provided the level ef *S0 os
the coiling fro® September i960*
Credit level woe
59.31 In the third quarter of ’60**61 which we© showing
a growth rate of 22,92,
Soon after the 20th im gu& i
i960 roloxaticn, credit level was T0.S8 in the fourth
quarter of *60**61. showing # 2 ?2 ,? 2 growth rate.,
Market arrive! was 65.52, 52.6 ond 61.00 in the
third,, fourth and first quarter© of *66*-*61 which in
higher then that of *39**60.
Price lav©! continued to
be lower In *6i«**61. as compared to *S9«*6i3 with *3.OS*
$*.05 ~S#S3 growth rate© in the third, fourth and fispnt
quarters.
Go the roiostotion was neceaeos*? esnoidcring
the oorfeet or#ivol and price trend and credit level
©orae to 44.4? in the first quarter of *60«**61 showing
o -36.S9 percentage ehonge over th® previous quarter
but 93,10 growth set®*
High level of credit in the
fourth and firei quarters of *60-*61 as compared a:
fourth end firot quarters of ?'S&»*60 In portly the
result of above raiaxsfelsBs end portly because of
higher workefe strive!#
It is also portly duo to ~cnt~up
demand for credit# which was not satisfied in *Gy«fG^»
Go the advantage of releretion wQo socso taken# however*
procurement m m t hove taken o lion*e ahero# considering
the nature of eKemptions#
395 thousand tonneo of wheat
woo procured in 1960#
Qn Oth February 1961# the regulations wore
m o d ifie d and m argin was torougbs down (is 3*3 TS*
Put
35 f.> m m provided for Punjab Government storage dolivor;;
contractors#
This relamtation woo necessary becouon of
the fall in the price© oe painted out by t;be Pouerve
Dank of Indio#
Ceiling period was. changed from one:
month to two months#
It m m provided tbet in each two
month# period from Search — April 1961# on overage aggregate
yLtl
level of credit
not ercood the nernivtod leva!
for the two months in the corresponding period in *6P#
here also# the eK«mpilona were continued and ca fns an
other foodgrains ore concerned# statewide soporsto
ceiling were also continued#
This finishes the period
opto the end of the second five year plan#
s*2*1
It has bean observed while diecuooing the
contents of the various directives that PJI hoe
pursued a number of other objectives boaidea the
objective of price stability and helping genuine
JJ
>9 9
IO 'V
tr e d ih g © e t i v i i y ,
fin ® o f o u ch o t h e r e b j e c t i v e o
tills q b j e s t i v e -s f h e lp in g
TM a ia
ia
d e v e lo p m e n t o f warehouse©-*
s o u g h t t o tea a c h ie v e d
fo?j ©*©®pt-£ng a d v a n c e o
given. agoinot .warehouse receipts«
Beta on this for
the estaplate period ore net available*,
towever, oora
dots which as© available# ora presented in fable £k>*6*?*
Ife can, bo ■seen f r a n
Table Wo* £♦?» that even
though advances given against warehouse receipts were
©xsEpied from the cents©! fra©© they have not sioen as
& p e r c e n ta g e o f t o t a l o d v s n s e s again® fc w h e a t*
<£2&itS*Jl2A«eM4X
**»««».#*<>
Last
Friday
of
&*■&* « k <IA *F k * -* # «*# e si« * > W * W *r* f f i t t » l t ! « « » r ^ i | » « » # i r | | s » { *
<}1»JW* s ^ o p .* } * * * ..* - * * #
'
1_
&a© «ni in '
la k h s o f
Use
2 *
$5 o f t o t a l
advnneGo ogolnot
wheat
2
3'
Ju n o 1060
2 0 ,6 0
D ece ia bsr 1960
t 0 * 08 .
J u n e 1961
3 1 *7 0
UocQBber 1961
5 *6
•
0 *3 3
* » - « > « » WIT**e>i«»»VaiG*##■<#»«*
S o u rc e #
4 *4
3 *4
A
04 a n d 1961* p« 74
rs
*#u
«*© *•« o < C * * W «*#*»*»!«»•*#***-*ca •w * * * '* ® *
T re n d s and f r e g r e s s o f H a n k in g i n
f9 6 0 # p *
33
I n d ia ,
333
The fluctuationo
are aeaoanel*
ip
the absolute »notw it, it dscct
It m y therefor®* bo concluded that
‘credit policy tea nst brought out changes* in thepattern sf taped© practises ate*
Tbio woo aX&o pointed
out while di©euod2*ig the oowo issue in Chapter S*
wbaro advflnesa against Mo© sjms anslj/aod*
■Pate ©i» ©orfcot a r r iv a l in d ic a te th a t aaxinurv
nejpfcet a r t lv o l io th ero in th e second q u oetcr i*eu
Ap,»ii«Jun©*
fliosc £s no coriaiatencj; ae fa r $3 oinioura
l e v e l o f ©ajefeot a r r iv a l io caneosnod in tho o o r lie r
-£-Vq"»^
p erio d *
However^ ?38"*91? i t ooeco th e e sn o in fconcy io
o»e®0 lo § out#
A fte r th e h ig h e s t l e v e l i n th© second
qtio&bar eer-feet a r r i v a l fe -1 i $ r a p i d l y i n t h i r d q e o r i s r
and
© 0000
a®
t o niniesu© in. f i r s t q u a rte r*
fa * 00 p r ic e s at?© ecmesrood, rdnieut# paries
l e v e l con fee ab©a*v®d
©aitisju© n a r k a t
pwiem
in
t h e second q u a r t e r whore
ngzimX io
s t a r t r is in g
omS
else? o b o a rv e d *
t h e r e o f Sms
th e p r i c e l e v e l o f t h i r d
q u a r t e r io h ig h e r th a n t h a t s f second q u a r t e r *
P r id e
- le v e l s f f o u r t h q u a r t e r i s h ig h e r th a n t h a t o f th e
t h i r d q u a r t e r an d th e p r i c e e f th e f i r s t q u a r t e r io
* Plsaoer* refer to table Wo* 5*2 and 6*5
tiifhaet*
Credit data for the earlier period ora not;
avcil£ifolea Bet during *S0>*fSC« and *6S« *61» foigheo *
level is in the third quarter#
bevel of second
■quests'# i© Bio© quite high*
izdJiMS, **•
(1)
first ntter.pt ff'3th Se-pterabes? tfS*61 woe e request
to reduce th e level of advances without opecifyinrj
the c e llin g *
Berates wars m ked to r o io o ilm Jewel
of ©ergln by 18 $ without specifying the ©inirust
tsaegin*
Free the beg inning the price level o-ectss
to fe® sb® target variable*
she d i m e si vs -could
net bring down the lave! of advene®®*■
12)
ftfo June 105? d ir e c tiv e e o p e e ifis d the- le v e l of
-eelling e t 73 £ o f the b ate p erio d ond fix ed the
o®*g4« e t 46 $*
.Thia was e isa d o t reducing the
is v s l o f advances but the d ire c tiv e w&o not
e ffe c tiv e *
13)
Qoverrior had to w it© & l e t t e r on' S lo t Ju ly 103?
aching bshkci to -bring down th e in v e l of edvoncea*
C4|
t!n 1 H h Becotnbos 103?, c e ilin g was changed to
80 ia with monthly fcssois in ste a d o f weekly 'bos4s
m
& m done h ith er to *
stetworb o f o x e e stia n s
iheseasod*
flergin wee n o t changed*
now referen ce
p a rle d we® eorroapondioQ taonih** average o f poot
tbreo yoaro £»o« *35, 856 cod *55?•
(SI On IQth Soptorabor 19S8' controls were tightened
®3
tjsieaso were rising i»w} a colling of GS~2/3 li
«3B presffiribed*
Tbs tig h te n in g w«q e ffe c tiv e anti
brought down tbo c r e d it Isuol*
However priced
. continued to s?»®©*
(6 1 On OoeNwabor 39, 19B8 regulation® were continued,
hoggin «.$a& continued at 40 5i and re fe re n c e periods
o u tstanding fere© p ro sc rib e d oo c e ilin g .
C redit
le v e l woa undo® check and y e t th e p ric e s continued
to r!&®«»
(?)
£m fOfeh duly 1909, ©anted© were csodifiod to
adjoitt eho psoeuceaon£ psorjsoooeo o f s t a t e Govern**
canto*
Two fo ld ' fc le a siflc o ilo n ©f o to te s wao node
I t a cacao th is d ire c tiv e was core r e s t r i c t i v e than
®i_ a W ^ > A t » W j
neeeaoary.
1©
v » 3 ,\ 5 >
C o ilin g over / in d iv id u a l lo withdrawn
end nargln >i4 tre a te d d iffero n tlssliv *
w°vS
(0 |
Go Aeg not 30* 1960 £}tot©wia& aepssoto l l d t c wore
withdrawn nod «as supply p o sitio n wes comfortable*
' ro la a e tio r^ u e re »ro©cs4teed.
ta in ed at <30 d*
But margin was eain*»
Tb® reslewatlan wee e ffe c tiv e in
®slsleg the level of credit*
-> >
33 G
(9)
Cn February 9, 1961 m tq in was lowered to 35 Ci
as pride# were felling*
Ceiling period was
changed froo one month to two month basis*
(10)
It sees® the use of warehousing facility t#ac
not increased by giving exemptions to sdvanc.es
against worebouse receipts*
6 .3 ,4
E izteM aS JB M lieM * *The period from *G1 to *35 is an uneonOcoilod
period* while the period between *56 to *61 is o
controlled one*
In
oil the quarters of the period
*51 to *36» prise index has shown a negative growth
rate* while growth rate a t market arrival 1* considerably
high In the oecond and third quarters and it is 7*3D
in the fourth fourth quarter while 4,1 in the first
quarter.
Growth rotes of market arrival for the period
*S6 to *61 ere 6.17# ©*B3, 4*21 and 2*46 in the second,
third, fourth and first quarters respectively.
Growth
rotes of price index for the above quarters ore 7.0,
5.92, 3*64 and 1*37 respectively*
Despite positive
growth rotas of oorfeet arrival, prices hove shown o
positive growth rate because of higher positive growth
* Please refer to Table tto* 6.14 and Appendix 9*
V
J
*5Q7*
O
kj
ret®. of ineottp.
>'»* the credit figures are available fee© the
Inter port of the second glen period, comparison of
this aspect ie not possible, however, it can he seen
that growth rate of credit in the second and third
quarters of *S9«*61 is negative, while for fourth and
first quarters of the period *S0-*61* it hue remained
positive, but is just near the growth rate of marlecs
arrival.
A ik _ m .v .
ho._cowclttdedL.*-ha-<L.sr.edlt_.is-.ttat
interesting to note that the growth ret® of
price
index for the period *5$-**61 it* very low end even
negative in the third quortcr.
C&
the lotor half of
oeeor»4 plan period woo o comfortable period as fur as
price® of wheat arc concerned mainly because of high
growth ret© of tasr&efc arrival taring thic period.
6*3
flOl continued to pursue the objectives af
rest reining price rise and helping genuine tending acti*»
vity*
It also continued fca help realisation of otf»rr
objeebiveo.
In the final yeor procurnrfsrtt hocooco
c
decisive factor In deciding the level of credit*
Conslatent with ito policy, an! removed conarcio u p
15th flay 1361 as supply and price position was aati:^
factory.
They were reimposed on ^Ist April 10 6 A
&q
suT-siy
33a
p o a it l e n woo c r i t i c a l ond p r i c e s « o ro r is in g #
I t i© noto'd d o if lie r t h a t o o rg in woo b ro u g h t
down to 38 Yi o n ' Oth F eb ru ary 1961#
In view o f fch*
disproves©© t i n th e su p p ly o f whect# anti th e d e c lin in g
tr e n d i n w heat p ric e s # R8I w ithdrew a l l th e r e s t r i c t *
io n s a g a i n s t advances on wheat f»or> f4©y 1S# 1061«
This was a r i g h t s t e p os m rkefc a r r i v e ! In th e seco n d
q u a rte r o f
o t '2tG»96 woo ste w in g a 328*66
p o s i t i v e p e rc e n ta g e change @y©» th e p re v io u s q u a r t e r
end c an o o q u e n ily p s i c s l e v e l 'a t QG»6? woo a ls o allowing
a -4*76 Yi cftpfsge o v e r 'th e p re v io u s q u a rte r#
In t e r e s
o f g row th ro te s # grow th r a t e e f rcsrkat- o w i v o l «*ao
I3#59 w h il# th a t o f p r is e wacr ■»t#QG^#
iiepause o f r e l a x a t i o n s p ro s c rib e d e a r l ie r #
c r e d i t l e v e l ixsoo to f8#S4 in th e seco n d q u a r t e r o f
*61- *62 chawing
0
121«S0 p o s i t i v e percentage- change
o v e r th e 'p re v io u s q uartos- ond a l s o showing a grow th
s o ts o f
g ro w th r a t e o f in eo o e was 3*25 w h ile
t h a t o f w h o le sa le p r i e s in d s * was 2#0S f o r th e ©see
q u a r t e r and y ear*
I t pay be n o te d t h a t r e g u l a ti o n s
on oth@ r foodg s a in s were c o n tin u e d w ith th e a tr u c tu c o
o f © xenpiions and o to te w is o be©is*
ft© g e la tio n s on
fpottgrains o th er than wheat# w ith s u ita b le c o d ific a tio n s *
wes® E satntoined d u rin g *62* *63 so d *64 a lso #
** Rises©© r e f e r to T ab le fco#' 6*0 ond 6*iG
330
Tables
Ha.. 6 . 0
n■
*»,i *.9 fS "I
Ind&x Miirate&ro o f
■iWJw'wav'Wi^nj ,t.■■frfetutvy.s,
C s srflt £ P r^ e o Q f o h e a i
Cyase *52—*33 ® 109)
OotpjcuJ &
f.-!\
fttfi
ilw astes«!«***»■»-•>*<**<»■»warn»»«w«»w# **
r»
Lzr
<*
1901-62
II
9 8 .5 4
12‘i .S S
69*85 -1 0 0 * 9 ?
1 4 8 ,7 2
Q 0.92
37*31
- 1 7 .9 S
6 6 .5 0
-41*78
5 3 .0 9
- 3 .9 7
26 0 .0 1
III
IV
9 « c - c j< 4 B > t t3 - ,¥ a
III
If
1 ’
1962-03
11
2 1 0 ,9 6
320. m
h
k
s
m
r*#>
L *
wwm
'. *
t>
w m t t ^ w M o o B s - 'W i e a
0 6 .6 7
»»«»«-.-^i«»*»s>
c 4 ,7 6
0 8 ,0
1*53
9 1 .6 7
4 .1 7
*5*33_V
__T£3*_'p£*
***•*^"■
9W 3
tfi-U
~ 1 3-> S'*)
6^4-7
^ 7 * 33
■0*17
2 8 3 ,9 7
133,4
191.63
09*33
- n ,2 3
S 0 .6 1
- 7 1 .5 3
2 5 6 ,4 2
9 2 .2 2
f 1.67
2 .6 2
5 1 .6 3
-11*91
1 9 9 ,2 2
-2 2 .3 1
9 0 ,3 3
*»t* 46
GCU0
- 2 .5 0
I
1963-64
II
50*3
- 2 .1 9
139,53
- 2 9 .9 6
2S1.1T
397*37
183.04
3 1 .1 6
OS *33
III
■ 7 ? .3 ?
- 6 9 .2 0 '
2 9 2 ,3 2
10*53
S1*d
3. as
IV
6 0 .? 0
- 2 1 .4 4
136.53
-3 2 .5 1
1 0 2 .0
12,99
i
1964-65
If
46*23
- 2 3 .9 4
103 .1 7
—2 4 .4 3
118.33
16.01
178.01
209 .'OS
U S , 10
113.33
- 4 .2 3
III
6 5 .0 ?
- 5 9 .9 6
116*39.
132*5
1C, 92
XV
4?* 42
- 2 8 ,0 0
4 3 ,6 8
-6 2 .1 1
139.0
5.91
1
t06S~gfi
II
4 7 .1 1
-•6 8
4 0 ,6 6
11,'4 '
1 4 6 .6 ?
5,1)2
2 2 3 .2 6
373.91
7-0.40
4 4 ,0 4
132.33
- 9 ,7 G
III
6 5 .2 5
- 7 0 ,7 7
228.91
224,79
142,6?
7*01
IV
S9.-S3
- 8 .6 1
2 9 2 ,3 8
2 7 ,7 3
1 3 8 .6 7
- 2 .0 0
6 7 .3 3
12.91
-2 9 * 0 7
138,33
gp «-a
—. 25
I
«*■*•*■©*** «pnd*
« » * * .* » -K»«fraw«»' **•*!* «w> a* « B « 6 * t3
1 1 .6 4 '
,1 0
2 0 7 .3 9
t o ,* . «* .* » • « S « » «
*
«
»
#
»
« s * « a <Hrr<p»TH*
«>■
.36
sB«M> « * * * ,« • - * »
■>&
340
O ooatiraal 2 a t o
y•a g j s d 196 1—6 6 ■
( 3 9 0 a * 3 2 - * 5 3 * 1035
• w w < M « t « » « i > < » « > w i D i i f l > W 0 « l « « i i < w — wt c a »<
P e r i o d 3.
3u&?hQ:?
«*A
t*.<\
* » « - ' * » » ' W i » a > l« i ; 0 | n » i a H i < H a « > v < y
Cp
i—
«*><=» « * m * v a « » < i |B « f t » n w n >
x»
■ C»x
■
»
*
»
*
*
<a »w> -&*>■*
'>«
P
* • « * • « * ’ «V.-C3- <•* <«»
«b»- o» « *< *■ iSw*** «npaa
1 9 S 1 -S 2
II
331*12
1 0 5 ,6 7
0 7 .2 3
9 6 ,5 0
--u , tj0
6 4 .4 9
- 7 1 .7
1 3 6 .3 4
20*02
99.49
3 .3 1
IV
53 * 6 2
-16,26
1 0 0 ,2 9
- 2 6 .4 4
tea .si
I
5 0 ,0 2
-6 * 7 1
6 1 .4 0
“ 3 8 .7 6
ffSP 3*
1,66
2 3 2 .10'
364*11
1 0 0 ,5 1
S 3 ,3 2
97 » OS
*4.C9
I'll
63,40
-71.93
1 4 2 .3 1
4 1 .7 3
9 7 .6 0
,
IV
54.9?
—1 0 * 9 2
9 3 ,7
-3 4 .1 0
1 0 0 ,0 4
a . 4?.
|
4 9 ,7 4
-9*35
S9.0
•«*&;*# f i
102,44
3. 6
2 2 ? .1 9
336*76
1(51,17
45.36
95.0
- '7 ,3 9
63*03
- 7 0 ,§ 6
135*26
33.70
9 9 .2 Q
3 ,6 3
si3
-2 0 , 1
8 3 ,4 3
-36,04
190,01
.91
T1
2 2 7 * DrJ
f
A A »
•
00
?96cȣi3
II
6u
1 9 6 3 -5 4
n
m
IV
C .jt
*•# *» S^4
W
aft «?c*
«*8,76
70*92
-1 6 .9 8
1 3 3 ,3 9
?.5C
232*39'
348'# 46
0 9 ,6 0
26*45
9 6 .0 3
“ 0 .0 ?
? 1 B2
,
-65,07
1 2 6 ,2 5
43,01
2 9 ,9
IV
5?.45
*19.11
9 4 ,2 6
-26. S
100*53
,6 3
I
3 6 .5 9
“ 1 ,3
73*42
*22* 1 1
103,43
2.90
- 0 ,3 0
i
19,64-” 60
I!
Ill
*7 ♦
t 0.
1965-5»
1i
2 1 3 ,3 2
S O S , 04
0 5 ,6 2
1 6 ,6 2
9 4 .0 6
III
6 7 .0 5
-S S .51
129,61
5 1 .3 0
100.47
r
- #
Iv
5 9 ,0 7
- 1 2 .9 4
9 6 ,0 6
-2 3 ,2 7
1 0 0 .3 3
* - «r ^
1
0 4* 3 2
**0.04
72,09
-23.57
1 0 2 .7
«a» • » « * • « « w » m * « w ie * «s«* iw « * »
w t « » ■»wi!»» <k m * ;**««au»#tea »a»«ig«a, w m ^
j | n» n
u r * i » « n i » w i » « » w & » a#i m fi« »
«*
« r » a ia i« . <*»
r? 4
V l
4
y
CO.
3 *&.
342
«&
«*•«!* 4**-<A 36r'« »Ja»»W W ff
•* *
t& a s a n d Quest®©
,fl*« & • » « *
Raaefcefc
A sr& v el
•H»S«»<«® <*..»«»•■«*• >*»•.JU S * * * « i ,£ » « » < » » * « « * * « > * »
Frora '
««*{;»
To
•**»**)» * * * r * « * '« v .« » ' » ^ W ^ « a > w « p < a
1960-61
« * * * » ; » « * «*<-«»o»s*»ifs**3«<?4 CS « * < »
C u o d it
P sie©
* » & * < « » Asa wsV-nw « £ « f c * * a » f e * «gft « * w « » * » *m*w- * ? » « * « «
1 9 6 1 -6 2 '
11
' 1 3 .3 0
' 73*31
- 1 .8 0
111
1 3 .4 2
1 9 0 .1 9
- 2 .9 4
vs
' 8 ,9 5
2 2 ,6 ?
2 .2 3
3 .9
4 0 .7 7
6 .9 6
11
I f . 11
3 5 .3 0
3 ,0 ?
111
- 1 6 .0 9
77
4 ,1 7
IV
* 9 .0 1
1 3 0 ,1
1
—6 29
1 1 0 .9
i
1961 -6 2 ' 1962-63
1 9 6 2 -6 3
«
-3 .?
- 9 .3 0
3 7 .2 1
- 1 .1 3
3 2 .8 1
- 2 1 .1
IV
1 7 .7 2
- 3 1 ,4 ?
1 2 ,9 3
« C ,4 5
- 2 6 ,0 6
3 4 ,4 ?
11
- 1 9 .1 3
- 3 ? .0 7
Jti
III
- 1 4 .0 5
-4 3 .C 2
4 S .6
- 2 1 .3 8
- 6 0 .0 1
3 6 .2 ?
1 .9
- 5 2 .0 4
1 3 .9 3
II
2 5 .4 2
- 3 0 ,0 1
1 6 .? ?
III
- .0 4
5 8 ,3 0
?.,se
IV
2S.TS
5 6 5 ,3 7
- .2 4
I
42*92
32-6,2
1 9 6 3 -6 4
„
* .7 3
1 f 64*63
IV
I
1 9 6 4 -6 8
«>»*
1 «j$6*
III
I
*s»
**■
1 9 5 3 -6 4
II
«t£ # 0 .« *
- ,A %
.
^
1965-66
***■«* c n 4 «
« • «!*-•&> «« « IV JW ia» «9»
W*» e » *ri» « » «=s<a»io« **»••*>*?* «s*K » * » * •* •* » « » « = ?
- 3 .6 9
J V
34 3
F0 g|.od between 13th Kay 1361 and 2 1 st A p ril
1964 is o p erio d o f no c o n tr o l oil ©dvoocoa ©gaiftct
wheat*
Thus fa r about o, p erio d o f throes ‘© e s a fthorse
woe no -c o n tr o l on advances a g a in st wh&ofc*
l e v e l during th ia p eriod
ffios&et «j?riv©X,
Credits
flu c tu a te d with th e l e v e l o f
i t always showed e .p o s itiv e percentage
change in fib© eooond end th ir d qu arters and n eg a tiv e
pesetniogej efsansyso in th e fou rth ood f i r s t Quart era*
P a ttern o f cork et a r r iv a l ah,owed ® very high p o s it iv e
percentag® change followed by throe iwgotivs percentage
Change© in o sequences*
Bec&oa© o f load sod lo g c r e d it
flu c tu a tio n s hove two p ssoitive cmd two n e g a tiv e ehanqeo
in otseceosiem*
F»ic® lo v e l c r o sse d th e hundred casts in tho
f o u r t h qoortox? o f , &3«4S4 o n d '90© 110*33 i n t h e f i r s t
q u arter o f *63®*(54f showing ® growth r a te o f 3 4 ,4 ? .
The high er end .growing le v e l. ©f p r ice s* i t «ae fea red ,
wight indue® hoarding w ith th e help o f bank finance*
fh ie i o why c o n tr o le wear®- Wirapooed on S lo t A p ril 1964*
Raaerv© 8©ok, o f In d ie p o in ted o u t shot controls) were
juxtaposed because
&f wheat*
at s-ise
In p sie e a sod abort aupply
Index nutaber .of csot%st a r r iv a l o f wheat in the
second q u arter o f *64®*65 was showing ®20*13 growth
rate* w h ile in th e f i r s t quarts©*' o f ,*63«*64, I t weo
a hewing o ®0*43 growth rate*
'Prices l® v sl woo 113.33
In th s secon d q u arter o f *64**§5*‘ ehowlng o growth ra te
J
j*41
34
o f 80*3*
Hofiso thss tsfe p o e itio n o f co n tro ls,
ttoygin
w»s picas eriberi at 35 & le v e l while psovidino for £5 '.1
for wfiagehooses other then- cooperative ©o-c! o-lso for
Roller flo o r 'Wilis*
Sfcotaw&s© cled o ificeiicm woe no£ttte„in©i*.
?v,
visa dirocted that 'fo r'o fficea eponed prior to 1st
%9$2t SD-fost-Ponjab* an average pgpregatc
SWoutc(
lo v e! o f cred it; fmtx J-kjy«*d«n© 1264, fefeeti not R»c©ed
SO fl o f the le v e l taaintalned during the fcorspaapondiog
two exmth p erio d o f f2<52#
(2) fo r o th er s&otoa, Of. -'?
£wc
o f the le v e l m to ta im ti during fcli© sorresponding leonth
jo^ahAisA ' o f 1262 w&& p ro scrib ed osj coilin g ,,
fo r now o ffice :
opened a f t e r l e t damsastf 1962# c e r ta in coneeaeiono were
given#
erropsratfv® oaskating and proeescing ©oaictsieo,
Rolls® flo o r w ills , ©dvoneeo given ogeinot wosohauar.
rec eip ts and dasaVid dtscuaerriary bill© were e*aoptod
fro® the purview o f regulation-.
tin the 1?tb August 1964, margin «eg relo a d to
SO l i
with
a c o n c e s s io n a l m a rgin o f- 40 |S f o r warehouses,
R o lle r f l o o r w i l l s
a te *., n e g o lo tib o a on o th e r
wesra s lo e tig h te n e d *
bed i t s
food-;}ra in ©
The. tig h t e n in g o f th© r e g u la tio n s
o f f s e t end th e c r e d it : le v e l w hich was « t 115*18 in
tb s ©©eond q u a r te r o f *64», 6B wtes, m a in ta in e d a t 115.23
i n th e t h i r d q u a r te r d e s p ite a 205*05 p o s it iv e p a rc ftn to g a
Chong© in- -ib© m x k o t a r r i v a l I n th o .o©cons' q u a rt® * o f
J 3
345
*
Csedjlt l e v e l
cftrsfn to 43*60 chewing a
«*62, 11 >’ change o v e r th e p re v io u s q u a r t e r css -(iG*'0't>
g row th sa te *
C re d it l e v e l was 40*65 in th e f i e a t
quests® ©f *64*-♦65 showing © «S2,84 grow th rot©*
P rie e e c o n tin u e d to s l o e d u rin g *6&~ *63 g iv in g growSto
so to® o f 20*8# 4 3 .6 , 36*2? end 13.93 in th e anaomS*
t h i r d , f o u r th a n d f i r s t q u e e to rs re s p e c tiv e ly *
#bi«
to te e a a u o o f *0*43 grow th s s t e o f wcarS:<sfc a r r i v a l in
th e f i s e t quests® o f *63-*54 cod -2 9 * 1 3 , *11*0G, - v'i*90
oncJ J u s t 1*0 grow th sQtiWJ o f © arh st a r r i v a l i n ocevricl,
t h i r d , fo u rth and f i r s t q u a r t e r s o f *64«»*65 rospeeu.ivoiy*
The n e g a tiv e grow th so too o f t-vsjehot o r r i v n l uau
Reeottpeniod by 19*40 grow th sa'so o f locoes© i n th e f i r o t
q u a r t e r o f *63-*64 &m 2 2 .8 2 , 21*10, 26,13 ond 16*12
grow th r a to o o f itmoraa i n th e oocond, t h i r d , f o u r t h and
f i r s t q u a r t e r s o f *64-*65 ro sp a c tiv o X y *'«
d o th thyao
foots*?© ©wssctsd o v ery h ig h grow th r o t s o f p r i c e o f
wh$st i n *64**63,
RBI ha© been s y e c s o o fu t in feoeplng th e c r e d i t
a t low X o w i d uring <64»*SS end th u s p re v e n tin g h o a rd in g
w ith th e h e lp o f bank fin an c e*
tially ■ loues? In
£r o d i t l e v e l i s substan­
*6<5*»*6S th a n in *63- *54,
Growth «a See
o f e r e r i l t i n *64-*68 b e in g -3 ? * ST, -4 3 ,0 2 , -6 8 ,0 1 and
-82*34 i© th e se co n d , t h i r d , fn ts rib one? f i r s t quarto*©
* Pieafi© refer to ^ppvndi* 4
34 U
S '*
respectively*
In b s i ® f t
the level o f credit woe
rooinioined a t l o w e r l e v e l ®9
a r r i v a l was a l o e lowe r ?
because of l a m p
growth rate of
t he l e v e l o f a s r h o t
e n d ihts p g i s o lout'l
l e v e l o f «&ar&e$ a r r i v a l
a
and h i g h e r
in c a m *
Ir» t h e s e c o n d q u a r t e r o f
*#S» *66 IrvJes* n u n b o r
of m r k o t arrival «t 223#26 Spc-fSceted o non itivo
p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e o f 3?3#!H
o v e r the psoviowts q v e r i e r
o r o g r o w t h jststo o f 2 3 , 4 2*
C r e d i t l e v e l o t 7©* 4 3
showed a growth p a ts a t
@09
-3©.81#
Price level be
h o w e v e r h i g h e r e n d shown-a) o g r o w t h r o t e c f
130.33
16*??,
3 u t it w e e l o w e r t h a n t h a t o f t h e first q u a r t o r o f
*64-*65#
Price lev e l in the se c o n d q u a r t e r o f
*£&» *33
s h o w e d a ~ 9 # ? 8 & c h o n g o o v e r t ho p r e v i o u s quartos?*
regulations wero therefore s mdifisd on Sth Augwot
f-lsrgifi
was
•The
1965*
ineintoined at S S 7' l o v e ! w i t h <13 3
f o r c e r t a i n c a t e g o r i e s o u c h so w a r e h o u s e arocelpto*
H o l l e r f l o u r isiils a n d c o o p e r a t i v e s *
A s f a r as c e i l i n g 4© o o n c © r n s d ,
opened before
lot .January*
1963
f a r e a c h to& esonfih
p e r i o d f r o ® Auguot-Septoinber 1963,
a g g r e g a t e l e vel o f credit,
for
far o f f i c e s
a ceiling' o f u v u s e g o
(®> f tinJo 6,
t h e c r e d i t o a l o t o i n e d d u r i n g the
100 3 o f
eorresponding
two
month period of 1064, ond (hi for other ©totes oleo
347
198 ft tsf th e corresponding; t « month p erio d of 1964 wos
p r 00 ©ribod*
In a d d itio n to the above., more c re d it woo
pea?»Itt©i! f»# new branches o f fconfea*
Cooperative
earkofeing, and proeesslng o o e id tis e , H olier flo o r H illo ,
and 'we»eljoaoe/ sftid 13f> b i i 1© were ©nefeatad*
I t waa on 12th flovaobar 1965, th a t o ix bo^rdosd is tric t© o f Punjab, wore allowed a corns ©colonel margin
o f 25 li fttr lic e n se d d a a le rs and t»HI©ro»
Throe
d i s t r i c t s were ©loo sallowed a d d itio n a l c r e d it fo r ;lo. 2 lacs
p ar offie© opto tho end o f A pril 1966,
Theau otepo were
to holp tb© war b i t boarder d i s t r ic t s *
On 3 1 st January
1966, W t» ab©ing s a tio f lo d thest i t 1© nocoooory in tb s
.r^i
pu b lic in te r e s t qo to do®
** proocribad a o-org in of
25 y f o r w holesale d so lera end f a i r p ric e ahopo authorised
by the fisveawaont o f §C®?ssIa*
They were e lse exempted from
the c e ilin g H o l t ,
The re la x a tio n o f 5th hugest 1965, woo followed
by a ri« # in the c re d it le v e l. In 3 rd , fo u rth end f i r s t
q u a rte rs o f *65^*66,
C redit le v s ! , which woo 78,40,
In th e second q u a rte r, goes® t© 220*91 in the th ir d
quart©!? chewing a 224,79 ?» change ©v«t th e previous
q u a rte r.
I t woo 201,33 in the fo u rth q u a rte r end 2G7.39
in the f i r s t q uestec o f *fiS«f66*
In to re s o f growth
r a t e s , during *60«**6C c re d it le v e l In d ic a te s 9 8 ,SS,
569*37 snd 326,2 In th e t h ir d , fo u rth and f i r s t q u arters
J fe V
348
raopoctivoly*
Thus* level of credit &q wall ©a ita
growth rate is definXiely far higher than the growth
rat© of aar!:«t arrival* which is 25*42* ~*94* 28.75
end 43*92 in tho second* third, fourth and 'first
quarter© of 9SS«*66 sfftspnetiveXy*
Hanover* the
positive and high growth eats of fts*kei arrival with
a loss than two per cent growth rate of intseme in
?6S« *66 radutnd the growth rote of prise of whoa a and
it s#o$ IS*??, in the second quarter* 7*60 in the third
quarter* **,24 in the fourth quarter and «9*S9 in the
first quarter of
The upsurge of credit can
he justified only on the ground of preferential treatspent given to certain sectors# advances to which were
®xe®pt»d fro© the regulation®*
higher level of ecadifc
ra»y ©las foe clue to renewed activity of procutenant
and operations of PCI*
in Hf5$B C%pend£* 61*
375 thousand tonnoa xm'sa procured
This e®opiates the period of
third five year plan*
•6*3«$
IScnog^ai flusteoMane. *>..t64«.*gg*
s-
Consistency. oboe-read in the fluctuotiom of
market arrive?! fro.© the year *S9-*60 is maintained
throughout the period 9£l~96£*
fins
Lock ef conaiatoncy in
period e®y Ho dso to trend fitting method
ua®«l to obtain the e©iic;oteo of csorfteb arrival of the
^Xi»«JSJ>*ssaC55fe
* Pices® r e fe r Tefol© fJo* 6*9
J
343
o o r l l e r -period*
H ig h est l e v e l o f c o rb e t a r r i v a l l a in
tb© seco n d q u a r t e r follow©?? by a a te e n f o i l and than
lo w e st l e v e l in th e f i r s t q u o tto r i& o bserved*
f-»ico
l e v e l follow© joat c o m p le te ly in v e r s e ©ov a c a n t being
lo w est an oessbnd q u artos ond -them r is in g end reaching
highest In -fete' first qaortsr®
C se d it ia v o l otef® h ig h e s t -in t h i r d q u a r t e r .
1% eh©w® p o s i t i v e p e rc e n to g s changes i n th e second and
t h i r d 1q u a rte r© smcJ n e g a tiv e p e c e e n ta g a ehengoa in It;a
f o u r th end f i r s t q u a rte r *
th e re la recurs* a b le e le g a n t
o f s t a b i l i t y in f l c c tu a tle r io o f c r e d i t l e v e l ©van In
the yqcontrolled period*
Evofe though It ooaco thou
thee© i s on© q u a r t o r ’a ia § betw een aorttcS a r r i v a l ■„«£}
c r e d i t le v e l* toot bseatsoa tsorhefc a y e lv e l c o n c e n tra te a
haev& ly i n th e second q u a rte r *
th e r e a p p ea ra p o s i t i v e
p e rc e n ta g e ehorngno i p c r e d i t in th e second and t h i r d
q u a r t ore*
I t isay e l so ha heesus® o f le a d and le g o r
hoectiso of trod© p ra c tic e ® a t e .
t t way be n o te d fchnt
t h i s &© n o t th e c a te w ith r£eu*
\
^*3* 2
t'lil
*-
On. 8ey IS , ?961 e l l r e s t r i c t i o n s on wheat were
w ithdraw n da® t o iisp ra v sc o n t in su p p ly and doe lin i n g ironc?
ip p r ic e s 0
Cf)
This wao a a to p i n the r i g h t d ir e c tio n *
th e p r i c e s w are r i s i n g i t wo© fo e ro d t h o t
EJ
]
350
hoarding sight bo uftderiotan with the help at bank
finance*
to prevent thls^ regulations were rriopv-tA
on 2tat ="*pjril 1964*
Margin of 33 '! wea fixed and tup
fold Classification of siotea weo cede with c ceiling
of 90
C3)
C
of advances of reference period.
6« 17th Auguot 1964# margin was raised to 3b ’•
Both the later regulations* wart? effective tnd tcr-Ait
level ease down*
however price? of wheat continued to
rioa#
(4)
HDI m o hue easeful in leaping credit ot o
lows* Xovsl £n *64-*6S os compared to ,63«' *64*
This
was nsceasaty a© level of sorbet arrival was also lower
in *S4„*«5,
ISI
A© prices were falling,, because ©f higher
level of oarlet arrival, the regulations were relaxed
on Sth August 1965 end was followed by rise in the
level of crediti ttoai of which going to public rfiotri*
button system end exempted categories.
(6)
On list January 19S&, wholooola dealer© and
fair price ohopo -in tesals wore oxenptod fron. coiling
and wore awarded lower ms$ln*
<T)
On 12th Noverahs* 1965 border diotrlcto of i-onj©b
were given additional quota of credit.
5/
351
£&jusbi&!l
6*« ,3
& W MM
***X9*»-aAt*»p
fil.
■ 1'
Sofore ifoo an©iyai£ io c a r r ie d o u t, i t ©ay be
noted th at coring th e th ir d plan p e r io d , between
Kay
to iip e il 1964 th ere wase no eo fttx o lo *
Secondly
th e erorj-it q&o&th eetcs in .the .third, fburfth and f i r n i
q u a rters o f the p erio d •,64*»*6S to *6S-**66 io very .high
whiafe to o poshed op t t e grewth s a t e o f the oatae quart-era
o f p eriod *61 to *S6*
Fhuo th e c r e d i t growth r a te o f
t h i r d si«tesstus o f th& p e rio d *61 to *6-5 io 31*01 because
o f 98,S3 growth r a te i n the p erio d *64^*65 to *65* *66,
i f t h i s ’ i s not eafieldosrod, growth rot© o f ' c r e d i t fesfcyatjn
*6t«#63 in the th ir d q«©rfcca? So 18*08*
‘iio ila s e ly growth
r a t a o f c r e d i t f o r tb s p erio d *61 to *65 in the fourth
quartos? i s * 1 1 ,3 , bet feoeauaa o f 869*3? growth r a te in
tb s l o s t year* th e grow th so it- f o r th e whole p e rio d ,
i*$« *61 to *66 eoiteo to 32,00*
f o r the f i r s t q u arter
growth r a te between *61*>’6S 4© 2* 20, but fo r tho p erio d
*61 to *66 th e srot' 0 ©f grow th io 3 6 ,0 6 ,
Thio 4c fcdcauoe
o f 320*2 growth r o te i n the f i r s t quartos? o f ‘64- *65 to
*G5-*66#
flcweuer grow th so to o f c r e d i t i n th e p e rio d
*60**61 to *63-*65 i® 4»G3*
’d ose tb s e a r l i e r p e r t i .e #
*61**68 ©how © growth r a ta o f 19*64 tffoeraoo *u3*«‘6C
g row th r o t e 4a *30*St*
new****
■* PlsO ae o a f o r t© T abic bo* G,1 4
j
35 o
-
Tho© th e grow th stats o f th e p e rio d ‘fiS-* *tid
has in flu e n c e d th a growth s'^im o f the wool© p e rio d
i.s .
* £ t* * & S © o f e a t o n t ie llj/*
Ane« th e h ig h e r
grow th
4r3ta &t credit in *6'5*>*CC £© because of highex l o v e i
of p
i?os«?csos»t in 1
9
5
B
» to
ss? appendix 6 ) ,
Growth r a ts o f p r is e id o i l th e q u a rters ie
MSB than 8 A &ocauoo o f low er growth so to a o f fcaete*
a r r iv a l and higho^ gsowth r o t s o f in-eosa*
For the
p erio d *§1~#£? f a i r l y h ig h growth_oa-feo o f . aaapfcct a r r iv a l
and ©y sh oot 3*0 growth g a la o f in co sa kept the iou
grow th sroto o f p r i c e i n a l l t h e quojrtesra*
growth r o ta o f p r ic e 4o ppgaoivo,
in f o o t tha
For th e p eriod !:Jo
t o s6fi h ig h grow th r a t e s o f iooooo w ith lew grow th so te a
o f rcasrkst a® rivoi hoo g e n e r a lly awarclod a h ig h growth
r o te fo r p rice*
6 to
»?l * •
S w in g th o p e rio d * 6 6 -f 7 t t t o e a r l i e r object-1 veo
®ro n o t o n ly m in v e in e d b a t a c o u p le o f o b j e c ti v e s a r e
added*-
Thus advance© a g a i n s t 'h y b r i d aaeda o re oxoppted*
A g a in ■d i r e c t le a n by banka to fas?»a»s is so u g h t to be
en co u rag ed by g iv in g emetaptioh to such lo o n s frem th e
c o n tro l*
fie fa le tio n © w ere r e la x e d ae su p p ly poo i t Ion
wso t e t t e r *
Mften proeusetsen.t asoaises a g r e a t e r so le*
advances l e v e l o io o r i s e s *
H iein g l e v e l o f advances*
in fee© o f t i g h t e r p o lic y w ith in e re s e e d l e v e l a t
r
/-
353
pgosiiSfereRt* £o the X&Qt two years, indicate that
traders aha»© is reduced to 0 minimum*
Regulation of 5th FiSy 9f6S which was liberal
in c®4&ih§ aspect waa ©ainfeoinod with 00m modifications
upto the end of third plan*
Seme ©oneeosionG In the
beginning of *66 was© given to Karels* ess noted aoriiar.
On 14th done IOSS coneeooSono given earlier t© $ix
border dlatrlet© of funjob ware allowed upto the end of
Sococsfeor 1966*
But the ©oneoaaiene war® withdrawn on
August 9 6 , 1966 00 00 »© hoarding woe found in i%njob*
On SSth January 196? advene®® against hybrid oeedo worn
exoopied fra© the regulations*
In tho ueerwhll© rogula®
tiorso on other foQ«$G3?hin» were maintained with oorao nodi**
fieatieo® according to requirosaente.
In vi m
of the comfortable supply position in
res poet of wheat in *68***@9 end canoequent fail in
prices* f?DI relaxed its controls on advance® ago in o ;;
wheat on ?feb August *60*
these reiaxQ&iono were mode
to facilitate the marketing ©# the bucsber crop*
no I,
however, odviced banks to tabs sufficient care to 0 0 a
that unduly largo credit m e not granted to 'their
customers for speculative purposes, which might later load
to an unhealthy rice in prices#
Margin was reduced from SO # to 39 ^ and conce­
ssional margins m m
reduced from 40 $ to 29 ^ for
37 V
35
'
advances against waruhcuoa receipt® and agorsts o f
Food Corporation of India.*
From Augcst-*5epterafaer
1968* 11C3 fS of the outstanding, level of 1f67 or
of ih© outstanding level in *64*<63 whichever man
higbop was prescribed ©a ceiling*
Sion was removed*
Stotowise closeifica-
For now offices opened after toft
January 1966 additional credit was permitted*
Advances
to cooperative marketing and procssoinf cocietiae,
R o lle r f l o o r © illa tf s t a t e g overflow to an d t h e i r a g e n ts ,
Food C o rp o ra tio n o f India* C e n tra l and U to ta w arehouses
and d e a le r s on b e h a lf o f Governc e n t In k e r e la wore
exempted.
So* the regulation of Sth August* 1963 with
minor codifications continued upto 7th August 1560*
index number of market arrives! at 404.04 in the second
quarter of *60** *69 shewed a 603.SS $ change over the
,
t
previous quarter or an annual growth set® of 151.09*
Index number ©# market arrival in the third quarter
■
of ’6S«*69 »t 1ST.36 show ad © growth rate of 9?.'04*
dosing tho fourth quarter of *&B* *691 market arrival
at OS.29 stowed a growth rate of 43.S&*
Fresi the above
it O80CH3* that there is a ramarkeble rise in tho casket
strivbl#
This was responded by pries level.
It eon bo
aeon that* price levs! ia 174.6? .In the oceand quarter
of *68- *69 show©
growth sate* price level in tho
third quarter of *68** *69, oft 163.6? baa the growth rota
355
o f •»14,04*
Price level In the fourth quorta? of
*60**69 at 109 show© o growth rote of ^6*20.
first quarter of
In the
*60-*69, price level at 197.67 above
the growth rate of »2*S4#
This situation of higher
tx o x k o t arrival oik ? foiling price© led 'tut no relax the
polley on August 7* I960*
However# ih© credit lovtrl
wne already high and rising aims© th© fourth Quarter
of
*6?«-*6D« ,. i t
e o n be ©een that during iho fourth
ond first quarter o f
*67-*60. credit level
mob
963*16
end 306.32 with growth rotes of 95*6 and 159*61
respectively*
In the ascend quarter ef
*69, credit level
ot 1346*97 showed a growth rote o f 632*17 and this was
far sere than the consideration, of the werfcet arrival
nod the requirements o f the trade*
However, ft01
relaxed further# which was u atap of doubtful wiuduo
viewing fro© the above criteria*
It can be Justified
only on the ground of providing ao much finance on the
public diotribution ©yafce© wanted*
Fast o f this
finance, hoc gone to Food Corporation of India and lie
ogonfeo ond state governcento and it© ugenta which were
exesspied from the purview of th© regulation*
a©
So
the case of paddy and rico oil the advances needed b;v
food Corporation of Indio end ©tote govern cento woreexempted ond conoequently the abar® of the private
* Please refer to fable floe* 5*11 and 6*13
350
T a b le Mo« 6 .1 1
XS s Sl £ £ j S is£S
<no»« *S2-*53
• WA * £ • & ; *t* « » Sfr W r« » # » i * * «
Prnriod &
r-m
*m#*
es«*«•*«* •
» « » 1« i « * «*•>** W «■-*■* ■<«»** toft #*» W *i» »«* «** « * ***« t* «U» « * a
tv
HO-«»«®awr «!!■«!»T
O
Z*t
W
-
P
<• t
*»«.•• *»«*'«**** *M <»«® CB i» ««<* «
1 9 6 6 -6 ?
II
2 0 2 ,6 3
2 0 O .f i
24G .6S
1 6 .0 4
1 3 9 .3 3
III
56*04
-7 7 * 3 3
3 1 0 .3 2
3 2 ,2 0
1 4 8 ,0
IV
S?*9f
2*02
2 3 3 .4
—2 6 .6 3
1 6 3 .6 ?
1G.59
1
4 0 .3 9
-3 0 * 3 5
1 6 0 ,3 4
- 2 7 .8 7
1 S 8 .3 3
1 5 .9 ?
II
192*16
3 7 3 .7 6
1 8 3 .IS
8 .8
1 9 1 .5
III
79*49
-5 0 * 6 3
2 7 6 ,2 5
5 0 ,8 3
' 3 1 3 .6 7
1 1 .5 0
IV
5 9 .4 1
-2 5 * 2 6
3 6 3 .1 6
3 1 .4 6
2 0 1 .6 7
-5 .6 2
1
6S .T 9
I S . 79
386*32
6 ,4 3
1 9 6 .6 ?
- 2 .4 0
1 5 6 6 -6 3
11
4 8 4 .0 4
603*63 1 3 4 0 .9 7
246*93
1 7 4 .6 7
.■11.19
III
137*26
-6 7 * 5 1 2 4 0 2 ,0 1
7 9 .1 2
103*67
5 .1 3
IV
8 5 .2 3
—4 S .7 6 1 9 4 4 ,4 1
- 1 9 .0 3
1 8 9 .0
2 . go
I
S 1 .7 9
—4* 10 1 2 9 3 .0 6
- 3 3 ,4 6
1 9 1 .6 7
1 .4 1
1 9 6 9 -7 0
II
531*01
5 4 9 ,2 4 1 6 6 1 .4 6
28*41
1 0 3 ,3 3
—4* 35
III
1 2 0 .0 3
- 7 7 .2 4 2 6 9 7 ,6 6
6 2 .3 7
1 9 6 ,3 3
7 .8 3
0 3 .3
- 3 1 .0 ? 1 1 4 7 .9 0
-5 7 * 4 5
1 9 2 .1 1
- 2 . IS
6 1 .6 ?
-2 5 * 9 7
6 2 5 .0 1
- 4 3 .4 9
210*02
*72
6 .2 2
1 9 6 7 -6 8
IV
1 .6 0
P
5
*/'S• *3
fei•*
«4
1
1970 -7 1
11
3 6 7 .6 9
8 2 0 ,5 3 1 0 7 9 .0 6
7 2 ,4 3
1 0 6 .6 9
III
2 1 4 .2 4
-6 2 * 2 6 2 0 0 2 .0 5
60*54
1 6 8 .2
IV
725*01
- 4 1 .2 8 1 1 4 4 .7 7
- 4 2 . 05
1 0 7 .2 9
-.4 0
1
91*04
fl.A .
1 9 0 .9 3
1 .9 4
«Mi»»iaayc»«SStfam u> »ma » mtnw*
- 2 7 .6 4
0 .4 .
e>
aw*a» w n^c ^
***»•■*» x^**» # - * » * . * »
- 1 1 .1 1
*01
}V
357
j o a ...
Indax Huiabocs o f Iterfraft .a rriv a l* C redit £ '-r ic e o f Q-hgafc
^ g i a f t . .,.1.96.6*.XX
Vame *52-<53 «* 1-J'^
fe S r ttt*
,U
' ' H‘
1966-57
II
2 1 5 .6 7
2 9 7 .0 3
73*75
5.0D
9 6 ,5 0
*»5« 96
III
6 9 .3 6
- 6 7 .0 4
119 .1 0
5 7 .3 3
101 ,9 6
3 .5 7
IV
56*07
-1 9 .1 6
104 .5 6
- 1 2 .2 7
99* 09
—~J» 3
I
1967-60
IS
5 8 .0 5
- ,9 6
■6 7 .7 4
- 3 5 .2 1
101.40
1 .5 3
221,66
3 3 0 ,5
9 1 .3 0
3 4 ,9
9 6 .1 4
- 5 ,9 6
III
,7 4 .0 4
**66,6
125.04
37.71
103,79
7««# o«•»
*J
tv
.*
1966-69
II
5 0 ,1 1
4 0 ,5 9
-3 2 ,3 2
- 1 9 ,0
9 6 ,7 6
6 3 .6 3
- 2 3 ,0 9
- 3 4 ,3 3
100.51
102.54
-0 * 2 0
2 .0 0
23G.18
4 6 6 ,7 2
9 0 ,9 6
4 2 ,9 0
5 6 .0 2
- 6 .3 6
III
73*60
- 6 9 ,1
1 3 0 .1 1
0 1 .0 7
102.50
IV
4 1 , {41
- 4 3 ,1 9
09*59
-3 5 .1 6
100.41
I
1969-78
II
3 4 ,9 2
—1 6 ,40
M ,n
-3 9 .4 0
103.72
2 4 0 ,6 8
6 1 2 .7 1
9 4 ,2 6
0 3 ,0 7
9 5 .2 5
■*r.i7
III
7 3 .1 5
-6 9 * 8
K.a,
0 .:» .
99.U1
•3.79
IV
4 1 ,0 4
- 4 4 .3 2
*3
13
9 9 .0 4
0 .0 3
1
t f 78-71
II
31*31
- 2 4 ,6 9
B
O'
103.79
n .3 £
2 3 3 .0 6
7CI3.11
«
n
9 6 .7 7
- 6 ,7 6
7 4 ,0 3
- 7 8 .7 5
T£
m
99*89
2,91
?*#'A «
n .o .
«
■9
9 9 ,3 4
- .0 5
*i
n
I*
104.31
4 .7 9
*«<$»*fci®
**.*l*
III
IV
1
*««»** «v
a
*. •**gf
«m»<&
«y jm f
^pM«ni a m
C*
**•
cs-.«*«*-
C*«
p
■»«*• «*»*»«*»-*»»**■•»•%»*•«*W^(wx»w■#«•<_•«-*-*■»*«*.-•*>»
«
a
-
*t*«w
».
<fe»«a»«fc
•*»'***«*«•»■«»
«»*£»
:i,n r
353
359
ifitt
flirty**, tertis A ,xU«
KlltfUl.iMfirTl
T»o*
oihS
4 u » rt» *
\rriv»i
Cwd It
II
- 9 .2 3
241*44
B.3n
n t
-1 2 .0 9
39.06
3.74
IV
-2 .7 9
-2 0 .1 7
10.03
X
1966-67 1967-60
XX
-40*01
-1 0 .0 3
36.10
-3*10
-23*09
37.44
39*69
-13*22
44.37
IV
2*49
5 9 .6
23» 2i~
i
70.31
129*61
4 .4 3
XI
191.09
6 3 2 .1 7
-6*79
tfl
97*64
769.31
-1 4 .0 4
IV
43*06
439.41
-6*20
X
1960*69 1969-70
II
‘1 6 .9 0
234*79
- 2 .3 4
9*7
? 3 .9
4 ,9 6
-2 3 .1 9
12.31
6 .0 9
- 2 .3 3
—40*96
1*64
-5 1 .6 3
9.37
6.91
-3 9 .0 6
1.83
7 7 .2 9
-2 9 .7 9
- 4 .1 4
XV
81*03
-.3 3
-2 .9 1
X
4 7 .6 2
Fni
To
1963-66
l^tico
1966-67
in
1967-66
1966-69
III
XV
X
1969-70 1970-71
XI
m
- 2 4 .6
«*n.
-9 .0 9
jr v r
360
Q o e U m In ths orfwww, it esses, is seduced*
Credit
lcvai xxma to 2402*81 in ths third quarto* of *6 a -*£ 9 ,
1944*41 in ths fourth quarts* of *6 8 -*6 0 4od was
1293*00 in ttm first quarts* of *SO-*00 showing
growth reteo of 709*91* 4 3 3 .4 1 end 834*79 respectively*
Proauroaant of wheat war 779 thousand tetrtss in 15(37,
2373 fthcMnsnd toms* in 1968* 2417 t h o u s a n d tonne* in
1969 tS*n tppendi* 57*
Thle bugo proowreoent brought
out uoffy high lewel nnd growth rots of ersdlt in
*6 7 -*4 e *nd *48«*60*
T b o r s g u l o t i o n a w e r e n o t 'o b a n g e d o p t o 21st'
J a n u a r y 1970*
i-o 631.01,
S o r b e t c r r l v e l d o s i n g t bs p e r i o d
1 2 8 *99,
B3.3 a n d *1.67 in tto oecond,
fourth a n d first quarts* respectively*
to
*8 9 - * 7 0
thir d ,
But so eoepored
*60-169, i t ’S h o w e d h i g h e r g r o w t h r a t * o n l y i n t h s
a a o o n d q u e t k e r w h i l e t h e g r o w t h re t e o i n t h s r e c o i n i n g
tiaras q u a r t e r s a r c n e g a t i v e a n d f a i r l y h i g h i n o c o u p l e
o f cocao,
P r i c e t r e n d a l s o e e w o r e e d e n d feho n e g e t l v *
growth,rata o f
rotoo e f
* 6 9 - * 6 9 w o e t u r n e d i n t o p o o i t ! vs g r o w t h
*60-*70.
os coon 0 0
H a t s h o u l d het/e a p p l i e d t h e tnrcio
ths credit l o u d
woo
1661,46 in t h s o o c a n d '
q u a r t e r o r 2 6 9 7 * 6 6 i n fcho t h i r d q u a r t e r o r 1 1 4 7 * 9 6 in
the fourth quarter of
*69- *70*
But it eeoas probably
SB! did n o t apply ths b e a t * for s pretty long
tine,
b s oouo* it oust b e s u r e that h i g h a r l e vel o f credit
w oe baoauos o f higher l e v e l o f advebceo for public
I
3d
d ie trtb titiv *
On S l i t de*e«ty 1f?0* a o i i f l c f l i i M »«tft m do in
th e c u rre n t d ire c tiv e *
ftorgin m
miniave r o te « t ie te r e e t o f 18
re ie e d do SO ' and
' \ wm
provided*
However*
th e egetrte o f food C orporation o f Indie were perm itred
o MUyin o f 29
In eeeh too month p o rted oocmmeinq
feon deeuasy-Fetumeay 19T0* u s o ilin g o f th e overage
eggregete le v e l o f c re d it* w bit* should n o t ir o o i d
00
t o f the c re d it n o in tu in ed during 196B* wee p reeerib o d .
Afonto o f th e e t e t e governments ood Food C osporttIon
o f Kndlo were exempted*
I t wee n e tie s d th e t th o B ailo r
f lo u t m iile were experiencing d l f f i e u l t i e e in noting
tie e l y payment in reepee* o f wheat purebeood fro e che
Food C orporation o f In d ie , honoo margin woo reduced to
29 S f w Roll** f lo u t m ill* in t w p t o i o f wheat pureheoet'
by thorn from th o Food C orporation o f India*
tho tig h te n in ') o f e o n tro l t o t e f f e c tiv e and tho
«*odit le v e l which voo o t 1147*98* in tho fo u rth q u a rte r
o f *6t-*?0 eame davn to 428*81 in tho f ir e * q u a rte r o f
*A9**Y0«
In te re e o f growth c a te o f c re d it* i t ia
-*40*96 end -91*43 fee tho Fourth end F le e t quooto* o f
*69-*70 resp e ctiv e ly *
Farther* io tho second q u a rte r o f *70-*71* c r e d it
le v e l wee 1079*04 showing e growth r o te o f -30*06*
It
wmo 2002*09 in th e th ird q u art* * o f *70-«71 o* o growth
362
*ato o f -25#TP*
In tb a fo u rth q u a rta * of *7D-*71
tho Lnda* noabor o f e a a d it w*» 1144*17, ab atin g •
ftow th f&to o f -♦33*
This «Howo th a t tba rofluAatlon
oould ro o tx ain th# e a o d it &cvai»
Proeufwaant during
1970 «oo 3103 thoueond tonmja and tow 8000 thouoand
fconnaa In 1971*
Thin 0 * 0 0 0 th a rnduoticm An o r a d it
lo u a i tiow v ir tu a l ly a littia a to d pjrivot* tra d a ra fro©
g e ttin g advaitaoa am p u b lic d is tr ib u tio n ajce# o g o t
o i l tb a c r e d it I t ucmtad*
paootireooiit 9900 a ,
And i t vented mam m
Houavcv* o ark et a r r iv a l a t 567*59
in tho ooctHnd quo r t a r o f *78-*f1 oboar o growth se t*
o f 6*91 and in th a th ir d quart* * a t 314*34 ohovr o
. gcoatb c«t» o f 77*28 and a t 139*01 in tfea fourth
q u o rta r bar a growth r o ta o f Sf*03 end in tb a f i r s t
q u a rte r o f 70-71* a o rk a t a r r iv a l o t 91*04 above o
growth » o ta o f 47*62*
Thia vary good p o o itio n on
©uppiy fro n t la r o fla e ta d in th e low ar la u o i o f prioaa
in f 70-*?1* 0 0 ooopororf to *69**70 ond i t eon 0a oaan
th a t tb a r o ta o f growth o f p r io r ia d a r in tho t h i r d ,
fo u rth and t i n t qoarfiooe a t *70-*71 io nagativo*
Thun*
2 ta t January 1970 d ir e c tiv e oould c o n tro l tho ia v a i o f
ndvrneoa*
Oat oa eaon o a r l i a r , i t aaeee p riu o te oactoro
•barm iu raducad (3ao fppondl* 7)*
In v ia* o f ttwk naeoooltjf o f f e a l i i t o t i o g c**»d*©i«i
bawbo to axtand d ir a c t c r e d it to fagraaaa eg o ln at abending
drop and to help l a o rd e rly e**k*tlng« *B1 relax ed th a
363
control c m
sueti
o f thr o w l i t
O n Po c c sb c r 1?,
Units
OTBt
lotion nod pointed out tbot
of U t
taodifisd i t * r s g o -
°i*» t b s n o n t e x t o f p r e s e n t
<md peoepootiwe supply position,
greloe,
otsntsd to
i n r t w p o c t o f feod--
t b s Ootrii b e a d e c i d e d t o o o d i f y t h e p r o v i s i o n *
controls o n odwenooe agoinot tho s e a o o o o d i t i g e 0 ^ *
M a r g i n w o e p r o s c r i b e d at 9 0 fS b u t f b * a g e n t s o f Food
Qorporetion o f
% otc*
40
a
Indio. 29
Control a n d o t oto serehmioeo
w o e p r o s c r i b e d f r o a Jenosry-fstHroery 1971,
soiling o f overage aggregate levol o f credit vhteb
s h o u l d n o t o u o o o d t h e l e v e l t w i n t o i n e d b y bantra i n t h o
correopcmdinfl t w o nontfc p e r i o d o f
1*370* w o o proocurlbed*
Comjdooiorw wars givon to n o w brenobeo eponod after
t o t d s n n a r y 1 9 7 0 a n d e s s apfritmo w e r e g i v e * t o f o o d
C o e p o r e t i o o o f Indi e ,
ing socletios*
d i r a e t s d v o w s o e to f o r t w r c , t o l l e r f l o u r
o o n o u osr ^
wee
C o o p e r s M w oerbrtieg a nd procsee-
c o o p e r a t i v e o t o t o s etc.
Tfiio d i r e c t i v e
aontiouod upto tba cod o f finsaelel yea r
u .4 .t
gaw anrt. M t t n a
H i m
T t*
■-
1. no ttaogo In tto e*^000* 1 P0* * " "
f o r s o w e s t s t e r r l v o l is o o n c e e n e d .
aentiimod.
*70-*71.
“
Csrliar pottosn io
T b r r r i s n o efeenge i n t b s o e e o o n e l p a t t o s n
o f credit also.
Hanover there Is a obenge i n tbs pattern
o f p r i c e f l e e t e s t lo b e .
Ins t e n d o f e v e r y s e c o n d q o e r t s r
* f l s o o s e e f e e t o f e b l e to. 9 . 1 2
364
shoving * nogotiwa pemantaga ohaage on d the m a t at
ih« tlufoa quo#ta*a ahawing poaitiwa pooeentag# ehaaga*,
now oacond and fct*cthqo**ta»« a m •hcmtno oagativa
posteotaga stwmgae and thisd and firnt quaa t a m as*
otwwintr positive peasootago ohangea fe* coat at the
yearn,
Thi* anti seaeonol toil in paieea in the foetth
iptfMriwr woy b« boeowae of supply oede mailable by
poblie dlatvibutloo option,
nf
t f t f ,a>g4oti,fg fig -T l • •
6 *^ *2
fllU T If
11}
On August 16, 1966* ccmcaaaioo* given to the
bin boede* dloiaiqto o f Punjab warn withdrawn, **
saooarding to 991, hCHWeding wos tak in g p ise * .
(2)
On 25tb Jeneosy 1967 sdvoneea sgalxtst hybeid
anode warn awaapted ferns tbw regulations,
(3)
in supply of wheat ineaseosd, and pries at wheat
woo falling, 681 mlsicad e o n t m l on 7th August I960,
Asset* woo reduced f*on 80 3 to J3 «,
fieotion aso seoswed,
StotewiSB olwetl-
Coiling woo seised*
Lettel of
advened* rose further*
(4)
net should Hove applied bsotse when credit level
woa very high in tho fat quarter of *69**69 or letast
by a m e n d quarter of *69»*T0*
365
(S)
On 2 ta t Janoct*y 19TO gootvola wnto tig h to n o d ,
Colling la v e l mm low****) to 00 &»
Roto o f in to a a o t
o« 10 St woo* fo» th e f l a t *1m prwI ot4bed.
woo eoiood to SO &#
ttexfin
Tbo an g u latio n mob H ffa e tiv a and
m i d m a ta o iti ftha 1av al o f odvoom *
fttiv e ta t*ad«ca
etioco au at hooa boon highly induced.
Palead eontim iad
td f o i l baoeoao o f vaay high la v o l o f mmmkot oaaiwQl*
j
i
«)
i i
Ob 17th Paoocbaa 1970 o o n tao ls waae aalaaad
o« aqppl? p o s itio n hod iaprovod onrfaoxe c a a d it mm
aeq o lte d fo a lo an s to fmgmexts at*#
(7),
I t mtmm th e ahaae o f th o p u b lic d la tc ib o tlo a
eye too, p a r tic u la r ly booout*© o f o g atatio n o o f food
Coapoaoticm o f Indio Ham incaoaood in tho t o t a l la v o l
o f advoneoa a g a in st abaat*
High la v a l o f o a a d tt to baeauaa
o f ofMnrfttlona o f r c i and S ta ta fioaeanBonta (S©»
'•apamtim 6 and 7 ).
ftf-flg a irilija iig a jtf.U ir.agJrtai..arTlyH >
o»iBBB„and lu f f l l o f ftaad it * poalod anali/aia*
i-
Baring tho p erio d *66-* *71 d aa p ita a good Bata o f
growth o f weahot o a ria a l* aot© o f growth o f p eiea la
obovB 9 St bBooooo o f aoco then 10 & gaowth xmtm o f InetnMu
Gaowth r a to o f o r o d lt d tttlsg th o p srio d io high a* in ly
* P la ts * n f t s to Table ho* 6*11
360
ifetts. jUfcawib. w tm A t
,.ttrlgR ii.. C ratt! A.lfrlgi
EariatfaUa
O u o rte?
f& rk e t
AjPliVBl
P e rio d
C re d it
P r ic e
„ r . r ri
i
r
muss
mus%
u
US*47
'i
-1 0 .5 3
6 .1 7
13.A.
•
1*97
19.64
6 .4 3
1999-61
1 7 .3 3
- .6 7
.19
1991- 9*
2*98
4 .6 3
8 .4 2
1996-71
2 0 .9 2
7 2 .8 8
7 .1 3
1991-91
16.32
tJ.A.
- .7 7
iim-st
4*99
tf
0.11
•
1959-60
11.81
3.03
6 .0 0
-
1961-71
1 1 .4
34,30
7 .7 7
r
3961-99
*
in
—
\
' ' * Jl
(
-
7 .8
1999-71
9*63
N.A.
7 .4 0
19I9-T1
19*39
27.73
6 .4 7
1931.71
14*93
3 ,9 4
19S1-M
21.93
S.A*
it
1996-61
0 .0 3
n
1999-61
6 .3 8
-3 .1 9
-$ •2 9
2 .1 4
18.08
9 .9 $
1961-66
1 .3 2
31.01
9 .4 9
1969-71
'28*04
9 4 .3
8 .7
1991-61
13.80
ti.A ,
- .4 4
- 7 .8 9
5 .9 2
Coti<d.
7
367
1
IV
1
1958*66
4.72
CM.
9 .5 0
1W W 8
1*43
20.10
3.08
1961-71
13.4?
42.16
7.56
1956-71
11.83
CM.
7.02
1959*71
12.81
33.3?
5.32
1951-71
13.8T
«.0.
3.70
193U M
7.99
O.A.
*5 .4 9
1956*61
4.21
1950*61
10. 05
1961-6$
*2 .8 8
2 .5 4
1966-71
1 W t -6 l
I
4
2*
18.1
5 .0 5
ft
11.72
*1 1 .3
™5
3.64
1.01
11.50
32.60
9.11
31.3?
6.19
fj.n.
*t& 2
n
8.04
1950*66
3.3?
m o -M
5.29
24*81
6 .0
m t-7 1
9.11
32.12
7.84
1956-71
7.48
CM.
6.29
1998-71
9.33
27. t1
6.07
1951-71
7.55
3.69
1951-86
4.1
CM*
tt
1030-61
3.48
•
1.3?
1998-81
5 .7
6 .3 8
2.43
1561-85
* 2 .0
12.20
2.67
0.74
1981*88
5 .8 8
38.06
1988-70
-2 .1 7
31.0
*1 .9 8
11.0
Contd
363
i
,i
,
5
4 T
9
1931-41
3.18
*i.A*
-*12
f9 9 M I
4*0«
»
4.99
1950-44
3*49
24.07
4*33
1911-70
a .n
34*19
9.74
1954-71
4*77
a**.
5.54
1950-70
3*00
24*39
7*84
1931-71
4*43
0*A .
3*92
369
baooota o f advene#* to p u b lic d la trlb u titm *yataa»
t t t i » p a rte d between *5t» *61 la e p erio d o f n eg ativ e
*Mi# o f growth o f p rie a o f uttoot# posted between
leJU q u a r te rs ) i • o p e rio d o f high r e t* o f
growth o f p*iao a e ittly bocouoo o f high r o te o f growth
o f i m o m tmd *i*o in g en e ra l p ric e lev el*
fo r t h * 'a m i r s posted
growth pofto o f
polo# la n early 3,S w hile th e growth pa to o f cecfcet
e c r iv a l ia sound about 10 4 .
B oaplts o good growth
rotso o f aaefcot o s riv e l in th e to n e cum o*o**h r a te
o f pat#*, 1* High bodaeee o f h igh growth veto m t in c a m
1
'"
ehicfc to eor© (than 6 H,
Stew* th a in o eo tio n o f food
C orperatioa o f In d io v growth r o te o f c r e d it to trc e e n deaat rodeoing p rlu e to o e e to r,o ehere in c r e d i t to a
n e g lig ib le proportion#
<*S ,f e c a l ilto tt M fU Sfll
•*
Avai l abi l i t y o f d o te ha# r e s tr ic te d th e a n a ly sis
to eon* extent* however* a few te o u lte th a t ar* obtained
aco ppemmtod below*
d#9*t Saeeaoel* *Kara r(* * t Pt ) to twaing n eg a tiv e oign end to
4 f l e e r s r e f e r to Table No* 6,15 and t t e w w iota
ou t ta b le * .
y?p
370
Mbits, j
itflgam»l.,B«*g,
Va*i*t>loa
*»
___________
P aclatl
Ab»oluti"~]
fiat
1
*#?3
-*?G
II ,
-# e i
-.03
.-* 9 3 '
,-*93
IV ,
.- • 8 4
-.0 0
V ,
«.A,
W *4 .
in
VI
■m
Jtofc. f.Crail*ttw.frg|girt^.^raxreA.,lfcU
M 3II <■■■■
■
v*riobiai
Patriot)
I
m t - i pt
Abaolut*
-.2 7
Fijpot Diffawwica
.007
* 13
II
IXf
*43
•S3
IV
.03
,26
V
(!• A.
*
n.A.
n
VII
*
*
*
JTT
371
JjlMl
Si 1.3J.2
m atgiic. Battoonel Data
V a ria b le *;
Period
1
. I iA
A b e o lu to
*03
F irst Diffaranoa
«S2
n
-#2M
Ill
-.66
-.ST
IV
-.44
-.4?
tt
yj
*
•
VII
*
°
v tw t- A .S to m in im
Variable*
Period
.jpfrrtfa..3,ifljrcnal.fiat*
Yfc~1
.1.. .11 111 1.
Absolut*
First Oifferaoea
1
-.49
II
III
-.40
,03
IV
—.44
V
».A.
1*
VI
VII
m
-.40
-.44
•00
-•ft
W.A.
•
•
372
.................... .SiWBwa,.Biiai
voriabioo
Paelcd
AtaaoJUiti*
ifsA
Fixot Differ****
wwt
rn im m -m k m w f** m m m m *
I
H.A.
H*A.
II
«#S4
-.40
III
.004
-.02
IV
-.3?
—*28
V
*.A.
•
«•*.
0
VI
VII
c
*
T«bl« Bb . g.lg.fi
fflwat, i
Variable*
Pwlod
cbwbI bMbi
>u^touJwfmHU
Run
^o-t pt
Abaolut*
Finst Biffnrfeoe*
I
».A.
H.A.
II
.34
.24
III
.94
.30
IV
.40
.2?
V
yj
o
VII
*»
B«A»
*
°
373
IgirfjLftbJSidSxZ
i fianr>ttJfeiOT,,ni7i&?u , Sternum
Vbsieblao
P**iod
Abooluta
Fixot Dlffaaanoa
n
l
1
*43
.10
II
.11
.04
III
-.009
•04
IV
•06
•09
V
*09
•03
V!
»*A.
*
».A*
VII
M
Itfeta.1*13*1
Wm%
va*iebl«o
P**lod
-...—......
'
Abaoltrla
«»»
fis o t Piffacanaa
I
*71
*74
II
•08
■*T8
III
*63
*76
IV
*84
*78
V
•6S
.77
VI
W.A*
»
n.A
*
VII
■ota
Btl<
t Fa* apaeifiaation of pattlodo and miatot*
of et»«*oaticmo plaafta ratot Tobia no* 6.17
lv t
37-1
a iifl hovlftf bid* voI m fo r h ath that types a t axaroioa**
n o t a a tia fa a to r y oo mam o f Um valuaa
*{RAtmf
%hova p lo t o ign and a r t low .
*(Tt f t ) and f C T ^| Pft)
both in d ic a te n ag ativ a sign*
r(C#4 Pft) and iM C r^j
r e o ttlia arm a ls o a iig h b ly poor oonaidaring th a oigo
and oognitude o f tbo c o r r e la tio n c o e ffic ie n ts *
ttoaavar
t t C P t ) to s o ito o f th ir d paaiad abev c o rre la tio n
co affio iatK a hosing ooiooa o f *34 amt *30 in tha
sfcoeJtato and f lo a t d if fa ra n e f exgroieao*
ooeolto « t» poor*
oitfc c o rre c t sign*
rlRft^ C*t )
*(***«{ £»$) r t a u i t e art* a a tie fo c to ry
ftp,
.,B g g f lf .tto l
ooofrtoiow to in d io a ta th a t r(Kftt
Jlmiaantf.ln
and
*
.thB.,ctat* ia tt Matt
m m iJ u a t*
<*-s.8 ftHanAtlten .anaArM*. T-flgtagl-Jfldwi nmfatit* »4
i
Uaro olao rtKA^ f ^ l com a to ha ao ra a a tia fa c to r y
thanvCIiA^i
P^Jhoc vary poor a i t a while
r i m ^ P^l in th o f l e e t d iffd ro o o a o x o rd o s haa c o rre c t
oign end f a i r l y good tir o *
*(Yt P^l lo th a th ird *
f i f t h and s ix th p arioda to h ig h ly o o tlc fa o to sy in tho
obaoluta ferae*
Bowavo* tho ra o u lto oas n o t accep tab le
in tho f i r s t d iffa re o o a c a s t) oa they oro v ary poor w ith
negativ e aign*
r ( f t<ir| P^i exoroiao i s a le e n o t giving
good rw u ltta in th a f i r s t diffoa-ooca caaa vhareaa* i n
* Pioaoa votxm to Tahia ho* S*!6 ond i t s various
oub tablaa.
«&
i'y
375
timt
t„ toiC TW iiffl w tf jju - f tg tttr t.
m§
M M TO
Vorloteia*
w *M.%
Period
Abooiuta
Firot Oiffoxonoo
X
— *38
••SB
II
— 39
— 39
III
-.20
• — 36
IV
— 16
-.63
V
.16
— 61
VI
VII
'
.2#
— 59
S.4.
0*A.
Iffi&U Jfli M & r t
fttaal„i.,fla«»A 9U gn. m ia * f t P lv iiJ t o t a
tf*rlobioo!
Period
***,«**
A boo Xu to
Firot Biffoxeirao
I
— 30
— 02
II
-.0?
•07
lit
-.09
• 16
IV
• 10
*22
V
• 24
*21
VI
•30
• 19
VII
•30
.19
_>'»
37G
TflfatuflBt fu1fl*3
MttWft i Comlf,U»n jfttafau
[ftta
.—
V ariable©
P e a le d
m g <11— 1 !■
j______ V Pt
]
AbeaAufee
f
f l e e t B iffeM m ee
*46
*19
II
***10
III
*94
— 02
IV
*06
-*06
V
*94
**•07
VI
• 94
***06
VII
<*•*#
0* A.
jjy tt.lx .J « n r a lfitio n ,, a i t t i f u
V a ria b le *
P e rio d
.
f ic lu iU , P i t t
Tt-i.N_________
A boolvt*
: fi**fc Biff*«*f>e*
I
• 43
- .0 4
It
»*1T
**1t
IIS
•OS
•08
IV
•9 8
*04
V
*93
*04
VI
.9 4
.0 2
VII
8 *4 •
8 .A *
■>v
377
* €U
■TiMi.te» nfiilfiiiiS
M to .tJ i-fe tn U tto a ja ts iH . AB tea B iU
V ariables
Kbwlutm
■ |
i*t
1
F ir e t Ellff em its •
sua .
8*4,
II
*.4«
-*26
III
*•0?
IV
.1 6
**12
V
*96
* .1 1
VI
•44
*•10
VII
H.A.
(M
*»
I
ft1
P eriod
^
,I
Itfrint.ltej..6*16*6
Iftm t. ,t. ftn iflla lto tt. w t t f iit Actual.Ifota
—
VerlebXee
Period
Z
..*•»»— -*■- **«■
=**-1 pt
. > Absolute
. *
Fimt
* »***—
Difference
R A
■ O .A .
II
•*17
* * !4
III .
- .0 6
*♦£0
*»
* .0 3
*s e
* .0 3
•64
- .0 2
tv
V
VI
VII
8 ,4 .
373
,ffiiffl-j,.Ci»«^?nBtt.,.if tet&fc. tetut L-Pasa
I
*91
• 90
II
♦TO
.45
fll
.9 7
*40
IV
• 86'
• 92
V
♦98
.51
VI
*90
.81
VII
» .A .
n .A .
WfflQt a f o m l a i l a a ftpt a l a . TA c tu tl Bat*
Vtoaia&Utt
P eriod
t
IZ
in
Cgt
AbMlutf r T '^ p i^ at D iffo w n « e
«*A*
#21
tt*A.
*25
-.12
-.19
IV
•ST
-#Q9
V
• 38
-*05
VI
.39
-•05
VII
N*A*
N*A*
IT }
379
Mutt x.togU ^ton.ifflrtJh. ^ttHBL-Sna
tferleblee
Period
" V i c»t
A bsolute
! F ir s t Sliffoxm ee
... -......—..
^rrr
I
m*a.
• « ; a.
IX
*37
*30
*46- .
*63
IV
*73
• 64
V
*67
#tt
VI
*60
.73
B,A.
b.A*
1X1
VII
pn»
Qotfit » For op ec i f lo o t! tun d f p erio d s end noabe*
o f oboormatione plooee * * t m to Table
do* i.16.
380
oece o f a b so lu te fo rn In th e t h i r d , fo u rth , f i f t h
am} siw tb p erio d e , th e r e s u l t s e re s a tis f a c to r y ,
rtC e^ P^) in th e f i f t h end siw th p erio d s ewQSfit f i r s t
d iffse e n o s typo ohm* f a i r l y good reu n ite*
rC C r^
two alo e o io ilo o r e s u lt s lifeo e(C rt f^J# r< p j,.| Pt )
boo o u tstan d in g vsluo i n o i l th e p a tio di in th e
• to o le te typo*
however, f i r s t d iffe re n c e r e s u lt* or*
chawing lower Magnitude*
While
r<f*^ Ce^l r e s u l t s sr* poor*
Crft) r e s u lt* o ra s a t i s fa c to ry in tho
f i r s t d tffo re a o e typo*
I t any ha obosrvsd t h a t
in th o f i s s t dtiffcroneo typo r<*t
in
th e lo o t fo u r p etiette oicoept f i r o t d iffe re n c e type*
t ( ^
Pt l end ooet o f th e r e s u lts o f rtP * ,^
o re
showing c o sre o t s ig n eed f a i r l y high value o f e e e ffi*
oient*
Crt ) i s e e tlo fs o to ry in th e f i r o t
d lffseeito e only*
Proe th e above* i* to y be concluded
th e t BAt end Tt a re having good c o r r e la tio n w ith
and P ^ | i s a lo e inpoetont*
C»%) i s s a tis f a c to r y
f r e e th e p o in t o f vim* o f s i s s and sign*
0 *6
*-
C o rrela tio n enoly&io e a r r is d o u t shove i s in
o way, o p relim in ary eoctcb f a r tho re le v a n t fu n c tio n s !
re la tio n sh ip *
In tho coos o f re g re ssio n a n a ly sis of
s h e e t, th e n e tte d o f a n a ly sis adopted
ooatlnwsd*
r
f e r r ie a i e
Hoj
381
i*
m ly fmm pssisds is snssstaksn*
Paolo* on* is
bstsssn •!$ -*!» » sssond psoiod ia bsts ssn *9 f**66v
ttW
pm im t bstsssn *6 1 -*TO so* tbs foustti ftsoisd
i s tbs sosfcinstion o f ssoond sod thiod psoiods.
M v U U N d a i disssaaj aw is passantad t e t w •
W%
t
is tbs m l ps ssrfu i saplanatoiry n o ls b la
•M » s tls « in a i l ths smnmiss w its saso— t sign and
IS sissy* highly s lg n lfis a n t*
I*
An ths f is a t peals* s ith
t*i
shotsst s itu so* Is highly s iq n lf l sas t* tn tbs iln ss s
n M i Of ths sssso* paoiedf I t is basing costs s t sign
but is s io n ifls s n i s i 10 £ Is s s l*
In ths f is s i
Siffsssnss sssss iss o f ths sssssi psoto*# i t is having
spssssi sign s i*h B
% ls v s l
o f s i g o i f i ssnsi*
tn ths
dosfcl* log nsi sl o f in s th is # psoisd* i t Is having
plus sign «n* is highly s ig n ifie s * t .
pssiod, in ths dosbis log
toon, ths
t o t ths fourth
n s s i t is not
sstlsfSstosy ss i t is having plus sign on* 10 f* ls v s i
o f s ig n if iotnss*
In ths flo a t p n i o l f 4 is s ig ttifio s s i s i 1 <
*
w ith sosassi sign* fas ths sssond psoisd i t ta^oo
T%
m
Jk
«
nroraaeris.
'Lixuttat
Uauble liog
24
X
1959-60
ijuurter
I'hird •
£2
F irs t
Difference
1952-53
firs t
n
62
X
l >ineo ?
2
Utafcer of
G&gervatio&e
1930-59
firs t
wtKrtwr
1965-66
Quarter
fire *
if
a
‘ ae^l
Type* of
exorela ®
196.54
.025
20*47
7.50
#♦
21*65
Mm)
2*54
( *000)
1.0O
( . 007)
6.21
-.7 6 5
5 .07
»*
17*74
##
-♦015
0.25
#»
( . 005)
(.006)
-.0 4 5
( . 114)
-.0 5 0 2
♦.102
0.14
##
10*0
( * 005)
( . 004)
, 24*5
##
C.0S6)
—.027
-.0 8 7
.TU
9.75
**
C*004)
(■*004)
**
(*093)
—*027
-.0 8 6
9
©2
-3 ^
l
T't. —1
(Bepexi&mt variable -2^. Beta eoeaoml)
vheat s featlm tsA c o e ffic ie n ts. o£....geiirje«ei<an. H'
Cr^-:
1.5
(. 02 -
-.0 5 5
K. A'*
04
wan
im tm f
ft*
Doti&s 1*96
F irs t
Difference
li n e a r
Benfele X#g
2?
IX
XX
13
IXS
12
III
£1
III
first
*
Second
q u a rte r
1966- 6?
fl
x«$xvrib
w tm
Difference
*
g$c«»4
q m r te r
1969-70
1963-66
5
’
3*m
-.0 7 6
109.8
9.214
ao*
4
*>
2.82
(#003)
4*72
(#004)/
12 .5 5
~*09
22*36
#■*
(*002)
—#045
14*27
##
( . 903)
-•0 3 4
2 .2 4
(#16-4)
*368
5 *0 0
2*66
6.77
#«
,
( . 012}
(# 309)
-*062
1.62
(♦@06)
3*9
■»#
)
(*02}
#
23
(
*#033
•*974
-#821
#015
'
*♦018
iw
m
w
m
h
p
m
m
I
t©
-.0 4 3
7*43
*#
•*043
9 .....
3*3
*
*
*
1
I,
moozdlug
a* 39i
of, th© e s tfe - to j? o m f t t o l m t * -
. After ooatoute*
voter
of %iwa*
»
2*469
1*04
M 2
*»
•*£*1
(.2 9 )
#*£'
9
(*0097)
.
-*7S6
&
(*006)
-.*047
«•#
9.0 1
C*004)
“■•A
&
©
a abbra^i&tioa©m& &
y&
bol& j
tfe# fig u ra ® t o t h © h m s M t & m t vaXaga* m h ln b a r a t o
tnraetoet to ftto a t© a ta a 4® r^ o r w
1969*70
*© sips giv<m fesl©*? each
'MXgtxrm M l w
fig u r e ® t o
40
if
1999-60
6$&G&d
quartos? qnedrt*v
(3) Far totor^retaiioia ©f ©yicbole p\mm
(Z }
Mol® » ( 1)
Doubto hog
F ir s t
© I f f #«?«?#
SC
**3
no
osgstive sign sod 5 n os 1 £> 2,©vel of significance in
all tt»8 thraa type© of racdpls,. In, the. double*lay third
period ©Komis©, it has oorroefc sign and 19 5s level of
oignlfieonooa
In the fisefe difference exercise of tb«
fourth period it hoe tehee
q
negative.sign sod lo
significant at 1 ?>*
fx «
s Vh* io pass or?% only in the d&«blo log oxereics
of the fourth period with negative sign end 5 4 level
of oignifipane®.
rf.
Cr^ is not included in feho first period for
s
want of data*
In th® ©oeond psriod it hop tot on
negative Qign with 20 £ level Qf slgnlficansc fo S
linear and firat difference exaselses nnd 1
-
level ffcr
/
double log ©xereiaoa*
In the linear and first difforenco
oxereioss of the fourth periods It hoo token negative
sign with 1 fi level of ©ignlfieencs.
£** *
a
CrA
UK,4"*«* is not ineiueted do the fira t p e rio d
fo r wont o f d a ta .
In th e oecond and th ir d periods*
I t boo takers neg ativ e olgr» with S \l and 1 i" level© n f
s ig n ific a n c e resp ectiv ely *
I t nay be reminded th a t
os in the eoae of paddy and rise, negative sign of Crft
and
,,ip because of the nature of a erica which is
sea so n a l and g ca to rly *
C r ^ j has o l s e taken n e g a tiv e
sign in the fourth period with 1
level of significance*
If i
!SG
*
h igh *
bh o w
f o r a i l t h e a n e x o i a m , fT i o v a r y
f r a t i o i o o lw a y s s i g n i f l e a n t a t $
S U
I n c o n c l u s i v e r e s u l t s f o r l i n e a r se c o n d p e r io d
and f o r rests o f t h e exes©!©©®* i t i o s i g n i f i c a n t o t
? f' Sf S § level*
and fittsXy establishes £&* a© the principal explanatory
ypri.Qfoi.fea
Though 00es o f the ex o rcises do not show
®hd In
&
couple o f eases.* th e sig n is not
ots
expected* yet: f-lAv
*»*»*1 i s a n o th e r Inspector* t explanatory
variable 'for ot least first and necand' periods *
Y*
Z ip
im p o r ta n t fo r t h e fir o ts p e r io d o
Anaida Is o f
Ga6 9 2
here* the nesber o f periods io eix* in ste a d
of
four because approximately* fo u r to s i x q u a rte rs data
QT-e
afolesh #® l o s t in the co n stru ctio n o f oeaoonoi indexes
oxa
c lso a v a ila b le here*
Secondly* tiio grouping has
ole© helped in in cre asin g the number o f periods*'
1
P«0QSf*t in oil the exercise© with
c o rre c t oign and io a ig h ific o o t ‘a t 1
eao©0 end 0
& in
$
in ao o t o f the
cans of first difference oocond period
« Piooo© r e f e r to Tebl® no*. fir l s
P erio d
,
724
*
'
-.779
I
Doable log
1937*58
1931-52
*>11*95
.2534
quarter
quarter
S?feiri
Fourth
F ir s t
D iffe r e n c e
h irnsur
B x e r o ie e
Baaiber of
Observations
g
V2
__ »
«»£
X
os
fyp© of
S
w
{Dependent wrteble
* « * * ^ * * * < * « • *» > *•
~*©§t
|*©10)
2*72
#
<**
( *0I6J)
5 ,2 1
Sr*
4*25
(* 0 2 )
2*32-
(* 0 1 8 )
4*59
(* 1 2 4 )
.544
■#
#*
-,0«Z
4*36
2*6?
4*3?
— 089t
<*©93>
C*02)
-*©54
,*4»
T%
*t*«l
Ssta Actuml Index Humber#)
(•0 2 1 )
—•©35
9•
-
381
«
10
C3?4
13
11
12
11
»>#«*■
HI
Pouble Itog
20
III
19
First
Mfferesoe
J»la©ar
Boabl« bog
Uifferauee
first
aamsiiK i¥ i.m w MMWM
C2
TIT
3 SS"
•
*
S#c
tiue
1961—62
8
First
quarter
1965—66
-.139
1930-61
1957-38
*2.
quarter -
First
quarter
First
♦
**16
1.03
#
**
013)
(.013)'
-*069
4*5©
(.
—.062
**©6t
<.011)
3.202
#«
*
<.033)
2.3 '
-.0 3 1 7
.
(.125)
#4799
*#
( * 073 )
2.47
4.32
<.027)
*1
(♦397)
-.1 1 7 6
Cur)
Z€
#
10
0OUb2.fi 2»og
S’t r e t
39
A
0£
A
Linoar
61
AI
81
AI
Boubifi bog
Q uart® *’
1981-82
$eeond
1370~?1
F o u rth
0 u ^ rfc * r
1970-71
tjp&rter
F o u rth
*
S fie ou t
q u a r te r
1968-6?
-.0 4 2 4
►31
§
P ir a t
(. 0084 )
5 .2 4 /
->.044
**
(.0 0 8 )
*ȣ
*♦
4 .3 ?
(.0 0 8 )
- .0 3 5
«»
5*5
(. 011 ?)
*#
4 .3 4
(*0078)
- .0 3 4
9
Mfforeac©
10
<•008)
**
3 .4 0 2
**•026
U M *)
¥f*Z
m *
1 9 £ °i
<0100°)
i70O, *“
m
n m%
(no*)
S6M T-
A
cr~~
&Q
CV)
«
-.2286
C*0091)
a*55
*
5*ia
- ---
.
, X'
For tabeypretaii«a of apsboi© please refer sheet oa abbreviations Mid sysfcols
■ ’&£tty contents*--
10
C.0093)
~~
m*
9
«*♦<
7 .1 ?
(#0058}
S
below tli« figures la •!&« bracket ©r@ t values which ere to bo interpreted
*»
1 9 7 0 -7 1
1 9 5 7 -5 0
according to &%®n, given below each of tbs©*
I
®%% uf sumsff# ft) * ©ton
(3 )
*rm
farepttw opsofpuf
double l e g
quarter
tuastar
-•042
first ■ Fourth
1 ‘
«•
II
Im m
First
Mffereae©
6
100*£
jqaj»
Ciso*5
>«ct»t9f??e0» w^anretas mi%. jo
101*
m »
3 °)o
XA
IS
2
b *g « » **i» a a N sg « i» M » w» e e * w
VI
iiia
W ll i n c c s a o f l i n e a r se co n d p e rio d *
r^t**1
*
^
i s p x m tm t in o i l th e o n m n ia m o f f i r s t
p e rio d w ith c o r r e c t s ig n end & ?.» l e v e l o f o lg n ific a n e e *
I t in a lo o p r e s e n t I n th e f l e e t d i f f e r e n c e t h i r d p e rio d
e x e r c i s e w ith c o r r e c t s ig n and f © £ l e v e l o f s i g n i ­
fic a n c e *
*¥*
i
I t io a b s e n t fee® th e e a s t o f th e e x e rc is e s *
VA i s ' p r e s e n t i n th e l i n e a r and d o u b le lo g
e x e r c is e s s f f i r s t p e rio d -with c o r r e c t s i g n and I •.',
le v a * - o f s ig n if ic a n c e *
I t io e l s e p r e s e n t in th e f i r s t
d if f e r e n c e e x o r c is e ©f the. t h i r d p e rio d t^ ith c o r r e c t s ig n
end & $ l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e *
I t io p r e s e n t in th e
l i n e a r cod double log t h i r d p e rio d e x e rc is e d w ith
'c o r r e c t s ig n and % % l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e *
Again
i t i s p r e s e n t in tb& d o u b le lo g f i f t h and s i x t h p e rio d s
w ith c o r r e c t s i g n end S £ and 1 Sj l e v e ls o f s i g n i f ic a n c e
respectively,
V* ^
<*3Q® n o t oppeor i n any o f th e o x e re io a s *
«aeiw5 rai8«es»»
Cr*
-t m tonw i
*
Cr^, i s n o t In c lu d e d in t h s f i t a t p e rio d f a r
"*
went o f d » to .
third periods#
It .in a ls o e a t p re s s e t in the se co n d and
Hcwevsrt it is .present in the double
lo g ©sercicm &f f o u r th p e rio d w ith wogaisiva s ig n end
20 ii l e v e l s f - s ig n if ic a n c e *
%a£m i t to p r e s e n t in th©
l i n e a r f i f t h n e rio d oxerciO o w ith tie g a tiv o s ig n and 10 •*
l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e ..
It i s prsoor.t in th e double lor;
'
3o o
f i f t h p eriod ©MersSo© w ith o sg etlv ® s ig n ootj I $ l a v s l
o f oi^RlfleonEQ*
In th e lin e a r and double I qq ssodeis
o f t h s s ix t h p erio d i t i a p r e se n t w ith n e g a tiv e oign
and ill U spd S % l e v e l s o f o ig n ific o n e e roop eetivn ly*
C»* «
t
Csr* , is not present in tho f i r s t period for
«WftiwSiaK*as»
**
*
wsnt o f dobs*
I t ia prpoenfc in th e th ir d period w ith
n e g a tiv e oign end 5 *5 or $ ¥“> l e v o l o f e &gn i fiti'anec.
In tho first diffsrone© f i f t h period © xereioe it io
p r esen t w ith n e g a tiv e s ig n and to 3 le v e l, o f o ig n ific a n c a *
f i n a l l y In the f i r s t difference} o x e r e io c o f the o ix th
p erio d it l o p r e sen t w ith ncyafc&va sig n and 5
%
le v e l
o f © ignifiesne® *
pt
* V l .s p r s s s n t1in a i l tho e x e r c is e s w ith
plea sig n end f !l 'le v e l o f © ig n ifiea n co ox cap 6 in coo®
.*. t —t
^nvttKCTMwnp
o f f&sot d iffe r e n c e e x o r c ise o f th ir d p erio d where tho
le v a ! o f o ig n iflc o n s a i s 10
>?. m F;. .and Ml
t
I t in worth n otin g th a t
*3
o f tho
fisret d i f f e r ©nea cxereia o a o f o i l th o period© show a
aacoskohld o t n b l l i & y ©o i t i s *66 for fix-at p eriod
.6 ? fo r OQcohd period*, *62 fo r th ir d period* .64 for
tho fo u rth period* #6S fo r f i f t h p eriod end .6 2 fo r
o i« th period*
*■/I
t
Linear
1561-62
306.42
*s
#*
F irst
quarter
5.36
4 .3 2
Second
{.962)
( . 072)
U)
C.721)
4.536
C.G26)
10.65
*#
•3*27
*2813
*3
•5.101
«*
#*
.3136
6*35
5 .7 2
I
(.718)
4*644}
5.247
*e
—4 .5 6
*235
7
6 .7 3
• 2 .7 2 1
526.37
6
H »1
i*%)
tottfeL* Log
1960*61
first
quarter
CD
(pepeM cat m r ia b le Cr^-* Data mmm®1)
( .0 3 6 )
(©2)
• 4.006
Second
4
•■e**
?0
?©r4s&
fmm
»e * * «y* » « * * » « * * » *
tl
. 245?
first
Difference
{&}
it)
t
Linear
1
type of
Exercise
^ » 0 A rm » -tm
*»■
%
£Sfuesber of
Observations
nt
t —1
fafrie.i
o ffloic ''fl t ^%areesi*. .aa&el
£
Boame Bog
F irs t
Bifferoisoe
L in m r
Doable Dog
B lfferene#
First
1
31 f
U%\
III
( 12 )
III
(13)
HI
(20)
■“
Second
qmvtm*
1966-67
*
$ecaad
quarter
1969-70
28*532
1*558
•377.97
21.757
1965-66
1951-62
19
II
First
-.929
quarter
Steoad
quartan
II
— W»*« 0 ♦ » « !> <« — .aB O MI
4
^
(1.32)
(.037)
7.68,
■#*
-5*614
5*32
#♦
(.083)
.4213
11.973
(2*248)
■
3.248
»*
5.75.
* »
(2.81)
9.15
(.096)
##
4.939
•4*06
*3283
8.91,
«#
**>
#
%*'
4.364
2.49
( . 037)
(1 .0 2 )
•4 .4 7 3
(.063)
.1594
)
mn
C0S6* i
2
A s
1 ^
jS‘
L ls e a r
Boul&e l»$g
f irs ls
.
(55)
IV
(52)
2
(Iff)
(IT?)
k
^
Quartan
1959-60
SeeoM
q u a rte r
1181-62
5
^
1989-70
(ju a y ta r
umm&
3«caa£
qparf#**
1969-70
4 ^
*1989
456*9,6
25.565"
***5455
^JS
( * 686 )
6.45$
*♦
( . 0501)
1 1 .9 2
-5*818
(*489)
7.79 2
#«
6*€g
(.0202 )
15.73
if#
15.21
7.94
**
15.08
.2779
( .465)
(.0195)
- 5 .7 W
—4 *,45
5*726
««
12*107
♦«
*56
(.604)
(.0 2 5 )
—5.46
^
1iJ
GO
P
for ether
^ is fairly,eatiafagtoty
ond in a nu«b®». ®f es»©s e®. h ig h m, .900,
alw ays h ig h ly a i g n i f i ^ n t l a
qJL!
f r a t i o in
th e ©eoea«
Sorbin**
Motsoft s t a t i s t i c giv eo in c o n c lu s iv e r e s u l t o f o r l i n e a r
or-id double lo g e s e r c ic o s o f f i r s t p e r i o d , l i n e a r and
daubl® le g •aaereietttJ o f f o u r th end f i f t h p e rio d s o i a s .
Zti ie not a&gftifieant fas linear sixth period and for
double Is tj ©nereis® o f ciseth p e rio d i t io inccmelunive.
Hence f s s s th e p o in t s f view o f Hi o n ly first diffsrener
sx G re ia e s as® a o tio fa e ts -ry #
I f &V i© tfin tn fjerd a d all
ths ms$$ciao.o g iv e v ery good r#=t^
Or t h e tafrol© i t a©®¥®
en d
ttofffinatio0 &oat r e i s v o n t v a r ia b le s *
io iopertont for th e first perio d #
o r e t h e few©
co » e» n e w t.
Cr^ and
Car*. * reeulte or© n o t fsccspto&l® on tb s ground at
perverse oignj detailed dioeuosien of which io prejimted
in ths osetior* on correlation © nsl^/sis o f Chapter 5.
►$« 3
issssfi&U.*
?’©scf ©Ins for want o f data there nro o n ly f i v e
•pss’ioils#
s
J&i
doc^s n ot appear in any o f th e or or d o e s ,
P!A. ,| oppeoss in ®I4 tfto cstssfcioes end i s
a t 1 5 l i w i o f s ig n if ic a n c e in .t» a t a f the c»oa«# w h ile
* P leasa r e f e r to Tefelo "o, 5*19
lb
in o f tm ease© i t ia a l g o i f i a a n t a t 5 & le v e l*
p
P^ a p p e a rs in f i r s t and second p e rio d s w i th
negative sign and 1 SS levs!
double log third aes-iad it
of
significance,!, In the
op pm rs
and 1 5 l e v e l o f a A g n ifle o n e s .
wish negative oign
In th© root o f th e
onor&i&c& i t 4e pssoent ®4tb n e g a tiv e o ig n and t I’>
level o f aignificonea* The main season f o r t h i s io
the nature of the ties aesiea «bieh is explained in
d e t a i l in fcb© ©nsiyoi© o f poddy end s i c e .
I t <aoy he
n o te d t h a t %f t h l e *© atase o f th e o e sie o * uygmnonfe o r
O t a t l s t i e a l ergom ent f o r th e n e g a tiv e ©Ago i c n o t
©coopted* i t ©an bo deduced t h o t f!BI has been a b le to
c o n tr o l c r e d i t l e v e l in such ® «3y t h a t p rie o « c r© d it
has n e g o tiv o relofc Acme h ip i»e* c r e d i t le n o t allo w ed
to grow d is p r o p o r tio n a te ly *
s
i s p r e s e n t i n f i r s t d if f e r e n c e seco n d
p e rio d e se rc -is e w i t h n e g a tiv e s i g n -and 20
s ig n if ic a n c e #
le v e l o f
I t Ha ©gain p r e s e n t In l i n e a r and f i r e t
tSiffsjfonc© QKQgG&om o f tlx? t h i r d p e rio d w ith pits®
o ig n and t £ l e v e l o f s ig n if ic a n c e *
d u rin g tbi© p e rio d **%<*%
7hio i n d ic a t e s th a t
0 P o s i ti v e in f lu e n c e on Cr^
I t I s a b s e n t in tb » r e s t o f tb s e x o rc ise s*
S ^ » X ja O S
s a t is fa c to r y *
a t i SL
«
i# slway© above *80 and q u it©
f r a t io in o i l tbs caooo I s s i g n if i c a n t
fife? ©bow ©©^§©1 e a r r a la tio n in coo© o f double
c,-ev |
*/! y -'
393
log axorciaa of tha first period*
*
for ttso raot of
th® exorcises* there to no auto*eorraletIon*
result® conclusively eotobliahad
Tfte
a© th© coin
m s.ilm sm ssM variable. _for.credit . ...far...ell. Jha m m s t e m . .
However, f h a s
ole-a pieced o role in the third
period*
$*S* 4
^BeAaaifl^.^gflrilt.Mfet.ya.il* sWe have undertakers. analysis of five periods.
t
ie present in the first difference oxerdice
of the first period with correct sign and 20 G love! of
significance*
It ia also present in the first difference
exercise^ of the ascend period with correct sign one
I $ level of significance*
'Out in the double log exercise
of the second period it ho® correct aign and ft) G level o f
significance#
In the third period# it 4o present with
plus sign and f G level of significance far linear and
first difference exercises# while* 5 G level for double
log exercise^*
It ia present in ftha rest of th©
axarciaes with correct aigrv and is highly significant*
^At-f
*
It is present in the first period first differ*
ence exercise with plus sign ond S G level of significance*
It is also prasont in the first difference exorcise of
a * w s a « e « S u trt J 5. 4 :vm ?* *2a4fflsa*»»
* Please refer to Table flss* 6.29
Ixerbis©
type of
him m v
Doable le g
D ifference
flrot
Mnessr
14
Observation*
P-Oi^cdi,. JL
lumber of
II
14
I
l%
35 ^
quarter
1965-66
1961-62
F irs t
«
q u a rte r
1960-61
quarter
Second
1957-5©
euarter
fo u rth
fo
162*74
12.93
132.62
t* 7 8 |
►
1622
1*72
(1.16)
—
'2*008
(Dependent variable 0r^# Bata Actual Index Humber*}
P eriod
from
/
Mhe.mt.„*....latimted coefficientis off..ro^reaaion model
te b ie Be* 6.2Q ,
9**2
(8060*)
t
I
1*645 |
( *539)i
-*8©6!
liiaear
&©n%Xe I»og
first
Oifferene©
I»in©ar
20
17
38
if
1961-62
Second
quarter
fhird
— 1071.91
quarter
1970-71
• 1850.59
•15.388
970-71
$&ird
3.5
6*52$
40*525
B&mn€
quarter
1965-66
quarter
if&ret
111
m
Loubl* Leg
1961*62
quarter
U@q©ii4
Xtl
m
m
First
8*867
2.836
(.514)
1.056
(.493)
1*715
(.If)
*
.317
(.184)
.347
*♦
(SS*)
z n mt ■
»#
89*£
Car)
061*)
I9C*
61
II
Btefereaee
1§*£
n r rr --1-rrtTirmii w u e w n a - i i >» *
ten
CSU*)
>*
#*
(601*)
?$
f
(POf
7.915
(1*595)
«
2*88
( 1 *22 )
3*438
1.53
(6 .4 1 )
9*632
2*05
<1235*09)
2537.82
10
X?
¥
' 52 '
-11*54
-*972*24
*9.313
24*903
Scuba.® i>0^
' **
quarter
1970-71
ffetol
1570-71
f M »4
%uart#r
T ”
12.773
n
1,937-50
tuiirter
Womth'
1961-62
porter
£6cfend
4~
fir s t
Soufcla XiQ$
57
(t t? )
2S
Mff#r©»e#
*~™ 3 ’
/
.4170
(.1400)
2 .Si
.5919
(.147)
4.009
0*625
##
(.272)
2*349
6*064
*# ,
(•4414)
2*677
*#
4*02
(.147)
*593
*•
7.49
( * 5313)
2,AQ2
6
zz^z-
(6 I t * )
ifo
%
S io n
i
/
/
-f
4 ( )2
the oacand period with plus aign end 16
significance,
level of
In the double log exorcise of the
third period' it is present with plus oign end 20 U level
ef significance*
In the linens and double loss exescieeo
of the fourth period, it hoe correct sign with 3 1? level
of aigoificenee.
It is also p»o®it in the 11poor and
double lag oxexciees of tha fifth period with plua sign
and S ¥■> and 1 fl l&v%An © f s i g n i f i c a n c e 1 r e s p e c t i v e l y .
®
appsors in doable leg exercise of first
period with negative sign end SCI S* l e v e l o f e i g n i f i c o n e s i
Elsewhere* it lo not present*
pt» 1
s
P* *
p r e s e n t i n th e lin e s® e x o r c is e o f th e
f i r s t p e rio d w ith n e g a tiv e s ig n and SO 3 l e v e l o f
s ig n if ic a n c e *
la th e I l n e o r owl double la g m deic.
o f th e t h i r d p e rio d i t has p le a s ig n and 26 # / and £5 fs
l e v e l o f o ig n ific o h c ® r o e p s c tlv s ly *
In th e l i n e a r
end
doufela lo g e x o rc ia o s e f th s f o u r t h p e rio d ee w e ll e® o f
th a f i f t h p e r io d , i t has p lu s s ig n and 1 £ l e v e l o f
s ig n if ic a n c e *
I t s appearshe® in th a fo u r th and f i f t h
p e rio d s i s b e c a u se o f i t s proa ones I n th a t h i r d p e rio d
which i s in c lu d e d i n th e f o u r th ond f i f t h p e r lo d e .
*
«iaai£»
P* I© p r e s e n t i n th e l i n e a r e x e r c is e in th e
**
seco nd p e rio d w ith n e g a tiv e o lg n and 5 ^ l e v e l o f
s ig n if ic a n c e *
w ith p lu s s ig n £o p re e a n t i n th e
f i r s t d if f e r e n c e «xe»c£o«o
*'
y
'
r
t h e t h i r d , f o u r th arid
j
-
'
/
Z
J ..
4( o
fifth periods with pits© sign end 10 ?>* S J
/> and 1 \l
Isvsls of significance rsopeettvely.
It coy be
©bs esved shot sispeetad prices becar?© i e-portent deicr-
©inent during periods of high inflation.
It is
because of gssupfeg of periods which include periotic
o f high inflation* thot this variable la significant
in long period-analysis*
ft indicate® that in the
tengoc period the -trjrreftfe rots o f inflation beeosae
tii® isportsot explanatory variable in deciding the
level of credit#
«?‘"indice too o very poor fIt for oil
the ©stere&ass of first one! aocond carlo da*
however
«*****}
first d&ffoffsn.ee'•esereioe of the third period show R '*7&
w h ic h i s q u i t e o s t i a f o e t e r y *
pwsroSeae
U
f o r th e s e c t o f th e
1© fairly satisfactory*
f ratio gives
p o o r r e s u l t s f a r ' f i r s t a n d s e c o n d p o r ib d a b u t i s s i g n i ­
f i c a n t a t 1 fi f o r t h e r e s t o f th® e x s r e i o e o .
ns a e r ia l e o r s o lo tio n fo r f i r s t parted*
Ofc! show s
It ia a lso
o i g n l f leant, fo r -f i r s t dlffaranssa srareisoa o f second
and third p®»lo4ai sjhiic it io fiat significant 'for linear
and double log•©rasclooo o f oaeamJ period and gives
insonclusiue rooolto fasr linear and double log oxorciooo
o f th ir d period#
Those i® o e r i o l corrcilotion in bfoa
lin e a r sod d o u b le 1la s
also*
okp r a ise s
o f fourth ©rsd fifth periods
llewever i t i s s i g n i f i c a n t 1 fo r f i s e t d iffe r e n c e
exoreloso © f .fourth sac? fifth pariads.
4C 'iA
On tho whole* regression exercioes of actual
index number ©©rise. of credit equation indicate that
in the main consistent explanatory variabla*
‘
|
ia> onother variable present in one or the other type
of exascios of oil the periods*
feococtee important
in the thirds fourth and fifth pariotSu
s-’t
V is
Important an tha first difference exorcises of third*
fourth and fifth pertodo* level of sign!fieones rising
with the length of the period*
the performance of
exercise® In fourth and fifth periods is baiter than
that of first, second end third periods because of
loan number of observations in the first three periods *
' Wherever
hove appeared,
P.*°
Dut
is nbovo *?0 both [tv* and ?v\.
4
oics of the coefficient and t value
of V.$t aa higher than that of
conducted' that both
end fthen fa
However it ©ay bo
^ arc important;
explanatory variables*
6* ?
»*
flagulations on advancoo against wheat were
imposed prleerily with the objective of preventing
hoarding with the help.of benh finance*
turn would help price etobilioation.
Hilt in
However as genuine
trading activity should not suffer DC billo were exemt&d
fro® control frame,
The list of objectives soon started
405
I-Iolpinfj davelopiaent of warafrcooea, branch
banking, • eoepeco-tive © arreting end p ro cessin g a o c ie tie ®
e t c , appeared
00
o b j e c tiv e s to lie sroalicod.
t o i l e r 'flo o r t a ills were e l s e t s be h elp ed .
Farther*
5®«j6 ovatoo
feeing cpecis! 'prcblea© such as Punjab and U-eroXa More
0X00 helped*.
•
■
for th© purpose© ®f contraX ceiling over advances
by a bank, ceiling over individual borrowing and nsigin
war© taonipulsfcod*
for tbs purposes* a f anctsurageracnt
osaesptiono fro® feba above controls ©ore prey id ad.
By and large 8-8f Isaa been ooeesoa ful in booking
the leva! o f -credit un der cheek and prevent boor ding*
t o g u l c M o n s oea tightened or coles®d according tu the
prise situation end level of supply.
Out in- the lotos-
fjort* porticulocly after 1967 the procurement of fC!
etc. assumed a geesier. proportion as can be oaon f votsi
Append!*
60
operations*
High levs! of credit ia faocauos o f tbeoa
Private trader4# ohasre
in the tofaft
advances ogainot wheat m s t be quit© negligible.
)l-n
idea e f this ©sn bd- obtained free appendix 7 olao.
Prices are daeessifjocj mainly by. copket arrival*
C redit l e v e l la els© determined' by market a r r iv a l.
It
aeoBJC th e o b je c tiv e o f h e lp in g davolopocnt o f waspfujucoa
h if
providing exsop tioh a ia n ot reoXisecj*
I t 00,y l>a
concluded th a t euoh s tr u c tu r a l t arena f or m t ion cannot be
40 G
a c h ie v e d by cusssfSt p o l i c y .
1*
3,
Be®er*tf© Banli o f In d ia D u llo tin , yoptstebor il) 58*
p. 9?6.
Osserves
o f In d ia U a l ie ii n , btxly 135?*
8 0 6 Oo. Gch S 9 4 4 /C 310«S?*
3*
4*
Hoanrwo Oor Ij of India Colie tin, «Januas^ l'9C>G*
Oeadcva. Oonfe o f In d ia B u l le t in , Januusy t 9 ? t #
P* 60 ,