HORSE RACING NATION’S KENTUCKY DERBY SUPER SCREENER
INTRODUCTION
There are countless ways to dissect the probable Kentucky Derby field in search of the
ultimate winner. Dosage Index, Dual Qualifier status, Speed Ratings, prep race quality,
Graded Stakes wins, workouts days before the Derby and trainer’s Derby record are just
a few of the criteria that people use when assessing the probable Derby contenders.
These types of factors fall in and out of favor over the years and each has had its share
of success in helping track down a Kentucky Derby winner.
Each year, we are reminded of other important, proven screening criteria we
should keep in mind as we handicap the Kentucky Derby. Examples would include
the following:
•
•
•
•
•
Don’t bet to win on Derby entrants that have never run as a 2 year-old
Only one horse (Regret) has ever won the Derby off only 3 lifetime starts (make
that only two horses now that Big Brown achieved this feat in 2008)
Post position 20 has never produced a winner (Big Brown busted that one as
well)
Must have a final prep race run at the mile and eighth distance (Charismatic was
able to break that barrier in winning the 1999 Kentucky Derby and several
second place Derby finishers as well)
Must have a prep race in April (Yep, Big Brown defied that rule, too!)
It’s not to say that these criteria aren’t useful, but if followed blindly, it would have lead to
eliminating Big Brown from the win spot two years ago and potentially several long shot
second place finishers in past runnings of the Kentucky Derby.
NEW DERBY SUPER SCREENER
A few years ago, we went on a search for more reliable, yet flexible, screening criteria by
which we could identify (and eliminate), with greater confidence, Kentucky Derby win
and in-the-money contenders. We at Horse Racing Nation believe we have found a
superior screening methodology that we are excited to share with you as we enter
the final days before the Derby. We’re calling it the Horse Racing Nation
Kentucky Derby Super Screener.
All past performances services providers offer great products and we at Horse Racing
Nation use several of these productive information sources. For the sake of
consistency, we have used BRIS past performances data as the data source from which
our Super Screener criteria was built. Over the years, we began to see consistent
patterns emerge in the pace and speed rating values and configurations
generated by Derby winners (and in-the-money finishers) in their final prep races.
BRISNET provides access to the PP’s of any horse in their database, so we decided to
go back and examine the BRIS PP’s for every Derby winner over the past 16 years.
We quickly assessed that you only need (and should look at) the final two prep
races run prior to the Derby to draw solid win contender conclusions. Let’s take a
look at a summary of the past 16 Derby winners and the pace lines and speed ratings of
their final two prep races.
PAST 16 KENTUCKY DERBY WINNERS
PACE LINES AND SPEED RATINGS OF TWO PRIOR PREP RACES
(data source: BRISNET)
YEAR
DERBY WINNER
1994
Go For Gin
1995
Thunder Gulch
1996
Grindstone
1997
Silver Charm
1998
Real Quiet
1999
Charismatic
2000
Fusaichi Pegasus
2001
Monarchos
2002
War Emblem
2003
Funny Cide
2004
Smarty Jones
2005
Giacomo
2006
Barbaro
2007
Street Sense
2008
Big Brown
2009
Mine That Bird
PREP
RACE
DISTANCE
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 1/16
1 1/8
1 1/16
1 1/8
1 1/16
1 1/16
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 1/16
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 mile
1 1/8
1 1/16
1 1/8
1 1/16
1 1/8
1 1/16
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 1/16
1 1/8
1 mile
1 1/8
1 1/16
TWO PRIOR PREP RACES PACE/FINAL TIME
RUNNING LINES
1st Call
2nd Call
90
91
73
86
76
94
108
92
88
87
83
85
98
100
93
87
95
107
97
98
94
84
83
85
89
108
72
76
107
96
81
82
103
103
84
97
90
95
115
98
103
99
95
93
108
106
107
107
105
115
110
116
101
96
96
96
101
117
78
90
117
105
89
82
Late Pace Speed Rating
101
102
109
103
103
106
84
94
105
102
109
92
106
96
103
103
107
91
106
86
104
116
101
93
103
87
113
116
98
96
79
86
The Late Pace number may require some explanation for those of you not familiar with
BRIS figures. Late Pace represents the time run from the second call to the finish of the
race. In a 1 1/8 mile race, that would be the final quarter time. Higher the number, the
faster the horse was closing in the final stage of the race.
The first Super Screener pattern that emerges is something we all know. The Derby is
won primarily by horses that have stamina in the final stages of the race. This is
indicated by the pattern of increasing values observed in the prep race pace lines of
most Derby winners. We’ll get to the exceptions shortly, especially, Mine That Bird.
104
105
98
103
101
102
102
98
107
103
104
94
110
103
108
108
109
105
111
103
105
109
100
96
104
104
98
105
110
102
88
87
Next, in looking at the final speed rating of the two prep races, we can quickly draw
another Super Screener conclusion that holds for just about every Derby winner over
the past 16 years. To be considered a win contender, the horse must have posted
a final BRIS speed rating of 102 in one of the final two prep races. Also, the
difference in the final speed rating of the two prep races cannot exceed 10 points.
In just about every year, this screen alone can eliminate many win contenders from
consideration. There are two exceptions to this rule. The first is Giacomo. Best he
could do in the final preps was a 100 BRIS speed rating. So, in a race in which we
anticipate a pace meltdown as we had in 2005, 2001 and 1996 (and likely to have in
2010) drop the win contender Super Screener BRIS speed rating to 100 for closers
only.
The other exception to this screener, and most all other screening criteria known to
mankind, is Mine That Bird’s 2010 Kentucky Derby victory. I can still see my self looking
up at a track monitor and eyeing Mine That Bird’s odds at 50-1 and asking myself why is
he ONLY 50-1. All I can say about that outcome is the following:
1. How much did track conditions that day (slippery, soaked, track with strong rail
bias) play in the outcome? While Mine that Bird made a good showing in the
Preakness, the rest of his races in 2009 were mediocre at best.
2. Last year’s 3 year-old male crop was arguably one of the weakest in recent
history. Just a handful of the starters are still in training.
3. Only three horses solidly passed our Super Screener criteria last year, I Want
Revenge, Dunkirk and Musket Man. Papa Clem came close and West Side
Bernie qualified on one prep race but the difference between his final two prep
races speed ratings exceeded 10 points and made him a toss. I Want Revenge
was scratched, Dunkirk ran a troubled mid-pack finish though rebounded nicely
in the Belmont Stakes, Musket Man finished 3rd and Papa Clem finished 4th.
4. Pioneerof the Nile, finished second but did not pass the Super Screener criteria.
After the Derby, he never fired a good race.
So, we need to put an asterisk on the 2009 Derby and chalk it up to a field in which the
only horse that solidly met our criteria was scratched from the race.
Another pattern that seems to really hold up well is when the late pace number
and the final speed rating BOTH exceed 100. Thirteen of the sixteen past Derby
winners qualify on this rule and it does a good job of eliminating more of the field.
The exception to this rule is when you have super horses like Silver Charm and Big
Brown that are committed front runners. While these are the only two examples from the
past 16 years (we’ll get to War Emblem in a minute), we can tentatively conclude that a
front runner can qualify for the win spot if it meets the following prep race pace line
pattern:
1st Call
2nd Call
Late Pace
105
115
84
Final Speed
Rating
102
In the most recent runnings of the Derby, front running second place finishers such as
Hard Spun and Lion Heart either met or came close to meeting this criteria to offer
additional evidence of its validity.
All horses but Mine That Bird qualify on this next Super Screener criteria. All Derby
win contenders must post a 2nd call pace figure of at least 90 in one of their final
two prep races. Even the come-from-the clouds type closers that have won the Derby
meet this criteria. You can eliminate many deep closers from the win spot using this rule
despite lofty numbers being generated in the late pace number. Just too much to
overcome too late in the race which is why so many deep closers finish third or fourth in
the Kentucky Derby and other races for that matter.
Let’s isolate a few individual Derby winners that produced some interesting results. First
up is Thunder Gulch. If you were to have rated Thunder Gulch off his final prep
race at the quirky Keeneland Race Course, he would have been an automatic
throw out based on the Super Screener criteria we have presented. This is why
considering the two final prep races run at a distance of at least a 1 1/16th (we
never use a prep race run at less than 1 1/16 miles) is so important.
Based on Thunder Gulch’s prior prep race, the Florida Derby, he becomes a strong
qualifier especially with posting both a BRIS late pace and speed rating of 103.
Charismatic presented an interesting dilemma in handicapping the 1999 Kentucky
Derby. His Santa Anita Derby prep was at the 1 1/8 distance but the numbers did not
meet our Super Screener criteria. Charismatic’s final prep was run at the 1 1/16
distance at Keeneland and that pace line did meet our criteria. Even then, I failed to
put Charismatic in the win spot since I so rigidly required a 1 1/8 final prep race despite
Lucas’s extraordinary Derby success. Had we had the benefit of our “Super
Screener” criteria, Charismatic would have been an automatic win contender.
Street Sense was another horse in which we were forced to use the 1 1/16th prep race
due to the freaky nature in which his final prep race was run at, where
else?...Keeneland! The Bluegrass Stakes that year featured the slowest early and mid
pace numbers ever run in a Derby prep. This was essentially a 2-furlong race from the
top of the stretch to the finish line as indicated by Street Sense’s huge late pace figure of
113. Going back to his 1 1/16th prep race, this was also run in slow early fractions but it
was clear from this race (and his Breeders Cup win) that Street Sense had an incredible
turn of foot and could overcome these slow paces (something he would not encounter in
the Derby having closed from back of the pack along the rail against a strong early
pace). That 1 1/16th prep race not only met all our Super Screener criteria but that
pairing of the Late Pace figure of 116 and the Final Speed Rating of 105 was all we
needed to put Street Sense on top.
If you must use a 1 1/16th prep race, insist on at least a BRIS 106 late pace figure
to be considered a win contender (assuming all other criteria are met).
Lastly, we wanted to point out something about the committed wire-to-wire
specialist, War Emblem. His final prep race was run at Hawthorne Racecourse in the
Illinois Derby. He crushed that field gate to wire, yet his pace line looks more like that of
a presser. He certainly qualified as a win contender on that pace line and Final Speed
Rating, but it was a clear indication that he had everything going his way at Hawthorne
that day. Big wins like that are tough to figure given we tend to see inflated pace and
speed rating numbers that can’t be reproduced. Given Bob Baffert was the last
minute trainer, we didn’t question War Emblem’s final prep race pace line and
speed rating and used it to include him as a strong contender for the win spot
despite his long odds at post time.
SUPER SCREENER EXAMPLE ANALYSIS – 2008 DERBY
Given that the 2009 Derby results seemed so fluky due to track conditions, let’s go back
and take a look at the 2008 Kentucky Derby field and apply our Super Screener criteria
against the pace lines and final speed rating of their final two prep races to see how this
played out.
2008 DERBY FIELD
(in Post Position
order)
Cool Coal Man
Tale of Ekati
Anak Nakal
Court Vision
Eight Belles
Z Fortune
THE 2008 KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD
FINAL TWO PREP RACE SUPER SCREENER ANALYSIS
(data source: BRISNET)
PREP RACE
TWO PRIOR PREP RACES
DISTANCE
PACE LINE/FINAL SPEED RATINGS
st
nd
1 Call
2 Call Late Pace Speed Rating
91
101
67
85
1 1/8 syn
80
98
97
100
1 1/8
117
118
77
100
1 1/8
72
82
101
92
1 1/16
99
107
82
96
1 1/8
91
103
75
80
1 1/16
85
103
89
98
1 1/8
64
81
101
93
1 1/8
77
96
106
103
1 1/16
74
89
106
99
1 1/16
84
93
103
100
1 1/8
90
103
80
92
1 1/16
1 1/8 syn
1 1/16
1 1/8 syn
1 1/16
1 1/8 syn
1 1/16
1 1/8 syn
1 1/8 syn
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 1/16
1 1/8 syn
1 1/16 syn
1 1/8 syn
1 1/8
1 1/8 syn
1 1/8
1 1/8
1 mile
85
87
74
Fog
81
80
72
58
75
74
96
76
79
87
91
77
84
75
70
76
91
101
84
Fog
88
86
73
62
85
89
111
83
85
90
103
84
94
85
81
94
78
110
118
115
100
88
94
105
106
89
86
31
99
75
106
101
83
99
90
100
84
100
98
90
99
90
105
95
97
93
97
55
101
81
95
99
Cowboy Cal
1 1/8
1 1/16
94
106
105
112
84
74
96
94
Recapture the Glory
1 1/8
1 1/16 turf
80
88
88
85
116
87
104
86
Gayego
1 1/8
1 1/16 syn
1 1/8
1 mile
95
86
107
96
104
90
117
105
94
91
98
96
101
94
110
102
Big Truck
Visionaire
Pyro
Colonel John
Z Humor
Smooth Air
Bob Black Jack
Monba
Adriano
Denis of Cork
Big Brown
74
93
92
COMMENTS
Not close to qualifying
Marginal with those very strong
pace figs but an in the $ spot only
Not even close
Not a win contender and
questionable for in $ spot
Strong win contender. Meets all
criteria. Would prefer 1 1/8 preps
Marginal but doesn’t meet final fig
criteria and no pace meltdown
here
Didn’t belong in this race. Owner
had Derby fever.
Way too slow…doesn’t come
close to any criteria
Doesn’t come close and last was
the big clue
Late pace times were huge but
needed more to contend for win
Not even close
Doesn’t meet front runner pace
minimums.
Another who didn’t belong here
Showed nothing close to meeting
the Super Screener
Good play against…not up to the
test. 20 point gap in final preps
Does not meet super screener
criteria. Did pair strong late pace
figs
Front runner had no
chance…pace criteria not even
close
Just missed on the mid pace
requirement of 90…in $
contender
Front runner pace figs too weak
especially in the 19 hole
Absolutely dominant in meeting
all stress criteria. 20 post no
problem
In applying Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener criteria, our top horses for the 2008
Derby were as follows, along with their actual finish in the race:
WIN CONTENDERS
#1 Big Brown
#2 Eight Belles
ACTUAL DERBY FINISH
First
Second
2nd Place to 4th Place
Contenders
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
Tale of Ekati
Recapture the Glory
Z Fortune
Colonel John
Denis of Cork
Fourth
Fifth
Tenth
Sixth
Third
The exacta was picked cold and the Trifecta and Superfecta bottom horses were
all selected. None of top seven horses selected finished in the back half of the field
though Z Fortune made it close!
One more interesting observation and potential Super Screener criteria is the pairing of
triple digit BRIS Late Pace figures in the final two prep races. This type of stamina
consistency is critical in identifying the most likely in-the-money contenders of all the
closers entered in the field.
As a side note, none of the horses that prepped on synthetic race surfaces came close
to hitting the board. Now, none of these horses met the Super Screener criteria either,
which may have contributed more to their failure than the surface they prepped on. We’ll
need to keep an eye on this in Derby races to come.
SUMMARY OF THE SUPER SCREENER CRITERIA
No tool or set of rules can replace great creative handicapping (e.g. Denis of Cork was
cutting up the CD surface in the mornings leading up to the 2008 Derby and he paired
two triple digit BRIS Late Pace figs. in his final preps making him a stronger “hit-theboard” contender) but, versus some of the old stand bys, it appears we have
developed a “Super Screener” that focuses on the most critical differentiators that
best identify the winner and the in-the-money contenders of the most difficult race
in the sport to win.
We believe the primary reason our Super Screener has proven to be so useful
over the years is because in this particular race, young horses are being asked to
do something they will never have to do again… run a 1 ¼ for the first time, do so
in a huge field and against fortitude-testing pace lines.
Let’s summarize the key Super Screener criteria for picking the Kentucky Derby winner:
1. Use the two most recent prep races in applying the Super Screener
2. Discount or ignore prep races that were run loose on the lead especially on
sloppy track surfaces
3. Derby win contenders must post a BRIS speed rating of at least 102 in one
of their final two prep races. Exception: In a race with an anticipated pace
meltdown, closers can qualify with a 100 BRIS speed rating (1 1/8 miles
distance) posted in one of the final prep races.
4. The difference between final speed ratings of the two prep races cannot
exceed 10 points.
5. For closer types, demand a BRIS 2nd call pace figure of at least 90 and for
both the late pace figure and speed rating, you must see at least a
minimum rating of 100.
6. For committed front runners, require a 1st call pace number of 105 or
higher, a 2nd call pace number of at least 115, and a final speed rating of at
least 102 (caution: this screener criteria is still developing due to the
limited sample size)
7. If you must use a 1 1/16th mile race, demand at least a 106 BRIS late pace
number. A higher number, would be preferred.
8. Never apply the Derby Super Screener on any prep race run at less than a 1
1/16th.
9. If a horse shows triple-digit BRIS late pace figures in both of his/her final
two prep races but falls short on meeting other Super Screener criteria,
consider that horse to be a serious bottom-of-exotics threat.
10. Apply the Derby Super Screener with caution if none of the horses solidly
meet the screening criteria (and the 2010 qualifies on this point) or the
track condition at Churchill Downs comes up any condition other than fast.
This Super Screener criteria has identified the Derby winner and contenders in
each of the past 16 years (exception being 2009) and it eliminates non contenders
from the win spot. Use it with confidence to pick your 2010 Kentucky Derby
winner and Trifecta/Superfecta contenders!
Next, a complete analysis of the 2010 Kentucky Derby probable field using the Horse
Racing Nation’s Derby Super Screener.
PUTTING THE 2010 DERBY FIELD THROUGH THE HORSE RACING NATION
SUPER SCREENER
In our introduction to the Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby Super Screener, we
explored time-proven clues found in the running line of each Derby entrant that can help
us more confidently separate the true win contenders from the win pretenders.
Never in the career of these 3 year-olds will they be asked to repeat the tremendously
stressful feat of, for the first time, running a mile and a quarter while tackling a field of 19
other horses. It requires a special animal with tremendous fitness and a little racing luck
to overcome the huge obstacles on the way to the winner’s circle.
Horse Racing Nation’s Derby Super Screener does more than just ask where a horse
finished in his prep races and what was his final time. It puts scrutiny on how the horse
ran those prep races by submitting the entire running line against the time-tested Super
Screener criteria in which every winner but one (Mine That Bird) of the past 16 runnings
of the Kentucky Derby has met (even Giacomo, Thunder Gultch, War Emblem,
Monarchos and other big-priced winners!). Some years, several horses meet the Super
Screener criteria and in other years, such as in 2008, only two horses met the Super
Screener criteria. This year, only one horse meets the Super Screener criteria (barely)
Regardless, it is most useful at separating win contenders from win pretenders.
Remember, nothing replaces good, creative and comprehensive handicapping. But use
the Super Screener to validate your convictions, make decisions on “it could go either
way” horses and slim down your Derby exotics wagering tickets.
Now, the moment we have all been waiting for. Let’s apply the HRN Derby Super
Screener to the 2010 Kentucky Derby field listed in Post Position order.
THE 2010 KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD
FINAL TWO PREP RACE HORSE RACING NATION
SUPER SCREENER ANALYSIS
(pace and speed rating source: BRISNET)
2010 KY DERBY
FIELD
(Listed in Post Position
Order)
PREP RACE
TWO PRIOR PREP RACES
PACE LINE/FINAL SPEED RATINGS
st
nd
1 Call 2 Call Late Pace Speed Rating
COMMENTS
Morning Line Odds
1 Lookin At Lucky
1 1/8 syn SA Derby
1 1/16
Rebel
67
78
75
92
106
108
92
102
1 1/8
1 1/8
78
66
90
80
108
97
101
90
80
81
91
96
94
104
94
102
89
97
97
103
96
92
99
99
3-1
2 Ice Box
FL Derby
Ftn Youth
10-1
3 Noble’s Promise
1 1/8
1 1/16
Ark Derby
Rebel
12-1
4 Super Saver
1 1/8
1 1/16
Ark Derby
TB Derby
15-1
5 Line of David
1 1/8
Ark Derby
1 Mile T
Alw
96
95
103
98
91
87
99
93
1 1/8 syn Bluegrass
1 1/16 Turf ALW
88
75
99
74
94
96
99
85
30-1
6 Stately Victor
30-1
Big trouble in last. Qualifies (narrowly) off
Rebel prep in which he passed the “dirt”
test. Clearly one of the classiest of the
bunch. Nice pairing of triple-digit late
pace #’s. Inherits top win contender role
with Eskendereya out. Get’s the dreaded
1 Post. Will take back along the rail. He’s
beatable.
Qualifies as a win contender on the last
race but speed rating difference between
two preps exceeds the 10-point limit
(barely). FL Derby prep must be
discounted. Will be over bet. Bottom of
exotics contender.
Does not meet Super Screener criteria.
Had big trouble at the start in Ark Derby.
Came close in Rebel start but does not
meet Late Pace 106 minimum. Was
doubtful but works have been strong.
Distance? Bottom of exotics contender at
most.
A front runner with some decent stamina
and consistency. Early pace figures fall
short, however. Raced very well at CD
before. Only chance is if Borel can take
him back and get a dream trip on the rail
which is possible with the 4 post draw.
Like him but only wins came when he had
the lone lead early.
Another need-to-lead type that just
doesn’t have the superior pace figures to
pass the Super Screener criteria. Loose
on the lead prep wins should be highly
discounted unless pace numbers were
ferocious. A factor early and then fades.
Misses on 10-point speed rating variance
maximum and does not meet other Super
Screener criteria. Will run better than his
odds indicate and dirt surface poses no
problems. Mild bottom of exotics player.
7 American Lion
1 1/8
ILL Derby
1 1/16 syn San Felipe
80
86
95
89
102
81
101
88
1 1/8 syn LanesEnd
1 1/8 Trf Palm Beach
85
91
94
95
99
91
101
95
1 1/8 Bluegrass
1 Mile Trf Pasadena
88
86
97
91
1 1/8 syn Bluegrass
1 1/8 Trf Palm Beach
101
96
109
101
76
90
94
98
1 1/8
1 1/16
BonnMiss
SilverBullet
84
91
100
107
97
48
101
76
1 1/8
1 Mile
Sunland Dby
Southwest
89
100
98
111
94
89
95
102
1 1/8
1 1/8
Wood
Ftn Youth
79
79
90
87
1 1/8
1 Mile
La Derby
Southwest
88
97
90
105
100
87
97
96
30-1
8 Dean’s Kitten
50-1
9 Make Music For Me
80
96
90
93
50-1
10 Paddy O’Prado
20-1
11 Devil May Care
10-1
12 Conveyance
12-1
13 Jackson Bend
91
97
92
94
15-1
14 Mission Impazible
20-1
15 Discreetly Mine
1 1/8
1 1/16
La Derby
Risen Star
91
83
97
93
90
99
95
97
1 1/8
1 1/16
Wood
Gotham
75
95
87
102
94
99
91
102
1 1/8
1 1/16
Ark Derby
Rebel
84
80
94
96
99
98
98
98
30-1
16 Awesome Act
10-1
17 Dublin
12-1
If he could rate, last race qualifies for win
contender but he’s a committed front
runner, in a field of many, that does not
meet the Super Screener pace criteria for
speed types. Had things all his way in the
ILL Derby on a speed-favoring rail. But he
is head strong and difficult to rate. Note:
like others, figs moved up going from SA
to dirt.
Assuming a pace melt down, this one
nearly misses the Super Screener win
criteria. (needs one more point in both the
Late Pace and Speed Ratings), Would
much prefer to see paired Late Pace figs.
Big question is ability on dirt. Lone try was
a disaster against Eskendereya. Works
tell us nothing. Jockeys aren’t excited
about him. Looking less desirable but
Super Screener says don’t dismiss.
Was better at sprints. Ran close with
Lookin At Lucky last year. Nice bottom of
Superfecta bomber but fails on Super
Screener. Just gets into the field. Jock
chooses over Dean’s Kitten.
Strong early pace figures in last come
close to Super Screener front-runner
criteria but late pace numbers are pretty
anemic in both preps. Will out run his
long odds, but looks like a fader.
Last was strong and stacks up well
against a weak bunch of boys. Don’t like
the huge difference in speed ratings
between the two final preps. She’s no
Eight Belles but she’s a contender with
these. Tells you what connections feel
about this field.
While the Southwest race was his best,
the Super Screener does not consider
races less than 1 1/16 miles. Sunland
Derby numbers are not close to Screener
requirements. Is THE speed of the speed.
Has the honor of finishing second to
Eskendereya twice but never closer that 8
½ lengths back. Numbers don’t come
close to passing Super Screener criteria.
Would have passed criteria with a final
speed rating 3 points higher in last. Has
the feel of a wise guy horse. Is this
Pletcher’s Invisible Ink or Bluegrass Cat?
Likes CD surface. Is one of the few that
posted a 100+ Late Pace # at the 1 1/8
mile distance. With this field, a mild win
contender. Definitely a strong on-theboard contender. Strategy must be keep
this horse mid pack.
One of eight other front runners in the field
but like most of the others, his pace
figures don’t come close to the Super
Screener criteria. Only hope is to take
him way back and make one run.
Lost shoe in last and is better than that.
Gotham numbers make him a marginal
win contender (needed seven more points
in his Late Pace figure). LP’s are too
weak to be considered a strong win
contender. Overrated?
Barely misses passing the Super
Screener criteria on both preps. Needs a
few more points in the late pace and
18 Backtalk
1 1/8
Ill Derby
1 Mile Handicap
71
66
84
74
85
105
85
89
1 Mile
1 Mile
67
89
76
101
116
77
97
88
50-1
19 Homeboykris
Allowance
Hollybull
50-1
20 Sidney’s Candy
1 1/8 syn SA Derby
1 1/16 syn San Felipe
71
88
78
91
114
88
99
93
5-1
speed ratings. Not putting in encouraging
works. Is the most consistent of the
bunch. If they try to use him from the 17
hole, forget it. Needs to relax early and
then just try to pick up as many tired
horses, late, as possible.
Other than going 2 for 2 on the CD
surface, there is not much to like about
this one. Doesn’t come close to meeting
our Super Screener criteria. Connections
are doing a rain dance. If track comes up
sloppy, consider as a mega long shot on
your tickets.
Does not qualify without prep races at
longer than a mile. Even if we used these
races, he doesn’t pass the Super
Screener criteria. Looks like a one-turn
specialist. The 116 LP number achieved
against Radiohead does draw attention.
But Radiohead’s flop in FL Derby does not
encourage. Will run better than his long
odds would indicate against this weak
field. Dutrow confirms he’ll be held to the
back and then try to pass as many tired
horses as possible to pick up a check.
Shocker pick on the bottom, especially
with these.
Well, coming from the 20 post, he will
definitely be outside other speed horses.
Confirmed front runner does not meet the
early pace Super Screener criteria. The
last running line looks nearly identical to
Street Sense’s Bluegrass prep race
configuration, however. The 114 late pace
figure IS impressive. Caution: horses that
run at SA and then on dirt post higher
pace and speed ratings (7 to 9 points
higher). Making this one a bottom-ofexotics contender. Works have been
very strong but that post position is just
awful, especially for a confirmed front
runner.
Now let’s take a look at the projected order of finish for the 2010 Kentucky Derby
using the Horse Racing Nation Kentucky Derby Super Screener.
HORSE RACING NATION’S SUPER SCREENER 2010 KENTUCKY DERBY PROJECTED
ORDER OF FINISH
STRONGEST WIN
CONTENDER
1
Lookin At Lucky
Here by default
ACTUAL DERBY FINISH
3-1
OTHER WIN CONTENDERS
8
Dean’s Kitten
50-1
(misses by one point, would
DIFFERENTIAL
be a huge surprise)
14
2
17
11
4
16
TOP 2ND PLACE
CONTENDERS
(in order of preference)
Mission Impazible 20-1
Ice Box
10-1
Dublin
12-1
Devil May Care
10-1
Super Saver
15-1
Awesome Act
10-1
6
3
20
19
7
9
BEST BOTTOM OF
TRIFECTA AND
SUPERFECTA
CONTENDERS
(in order of preference)
Stately Victor
30-1
Noble’s Promise 12-1
Sidney’s Candy
5-1
Homeboykris
50-1
American Lion
30-1
Make Music For Me 50-1
10
5
12
13
18
15
TOSS OUTS
Paddy O’Prado
Line of David
Conveyance
Jackson Bend
Backtalk
Discreetly Mine
20-1
30-1
12-1
15-1
50-1
30-1
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