Dagebüll, Northern Frisia, 28 October, 14:00
The violent mid latitude storm hitting
Northern Germany and Denmark,
28 October 2013
(with F. Feser, C. Lefebvre and M.
Stendel as coauthors)
H. von Storch, F. Feser, C. Lefebvre and M. Stendel
(Institut für Küstenforschung, HZG; Seewetteramt,
DWD, Danmarks Meteorologiske Institut DMI)
Conference "Climate Change - the environmental and socio-economic response in the Southern Baltic Region -II", Szczecin, Poland
Storm Christian / Allan
Based on
•
•
•
von Storch, H., F. Feser, S.
Haeseler, C. Lefebvre and M.
Stendel: A violent midlatitude storm in Northern
Germany and Denmark, 28
October 2013, submitted
Woetmann Nielsen, N., 2014:
To ”efterårsstorme” i 2013.
Vejret 138, 2-13
Haeseler, S., and C. Lefebvre,
2013: Orkantief CHRISTIAN
am 28. Oktober 2013,
Deutscher Wetterdienst, 13.
November 2013
•
•
German name: Christian
Danish name: Allan
Surface pressure map oof FU Berlin, 28 October 2013, 12 UTC
Satellite
imagery
28 October
2013, 14:02
UTC.
Woetmann Nielsen, 2013
Strucklahnungshörn
Brocken
Hallig Hooge
Büsum
List auf Sylt
Spiekeroog (SWN)
Borkum-Süderstraße
Helgoland
Schönhagen (Ostseebad)
Norderney
Flensburg (Schäferhaus)
165,96
162,36
162
7
158,76
26
14
11,6
4
2
11
41
157,32
157,32
148,32
147,24
143,64
136,44
131,76
37
15
7
3
43
553
1489,6
2,3
4
11
921
5
42
1
12
131,4
129,24
129,24
128,88
128,16
127,08
126,72
120,96
120,6
120,24
118,8
117,36
116,28
115,92
114,48
27
51
2964
5
1
21
59
34
5,7
1213
26,3
10
0
39,5
111,24
109,08
108,72
108,72
108,72
106,92
106,92
106,56
106,56
106,2
105,12
104,76
104,04
Verlauf von Windgeschwindigkeit und Luftdruck in
Hamburg St. Pauli am 28.10.2013
1005
Luftdruck NN
1-Min-Mittelwind (kn)
1000
995
990
985
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Uhrzeit (UTC)
Windspeed (in kn; 1 minute mean: dark-red;
maxima: green) and air pressure (light blue) in
Hambuirg St-Pauli on 28 October 2013
Windgeschwindigkeit (kn)
7
1142
4
Kiel-Holtenau111,6
Bastorf-Kägsdorf (SWN)
Zugspitze
Putlos
Brake
Itzehoe
Schwerin
Groß Lüsewitz
Friesoythe-Altenoythe
Fichtelberg
Dörnick
Bremervörde
Emden
Putbus
)
Berlin-Alexanderplatz
Boltenhagen
Bremerhaven
Elpersbüttel
Schleswig
Weinbiet
Feldberg/Schwarzwald
Travemünde
Darßer Ort (SWN)
Hamburg-Fuhlsbüttel
Wasserkuppe
Cuxhaven
Arkona
Pelzerhaken
Greifswalder Oie
Höhe (m) max. Böe (Km/h)
5
171,72
0
168,48
Luftdruck (hPa)
Station
Sankt Peter-Ording
UFS Deutsche Bucht
How extraordinary was
Christian/Allan?
Assessment
• with observed data (possibly inhomogeneous)
• with RCM downscaled data CoastDat (possibly
inaccurate)
Using station data of DWD and DMI
Germany: Christian No. 4
1. 1999 List-Sylt 183,6 km/h
2. 1997 Pelzerhaken 177,8 km/h
3. 1994 Helgoland 176,4 km/h
4. 2013 St. Peter Ording, 171,2 km/h
5. 1993 Kap Arkona 164,9 km/h
6. 1990 Cuxhaven 160,9 km/h
7. 1995 Kap Arkona 159,1 km/h
8. 2002 Glücksburg 147,6 km/h
Denmark: Allan No. 1
Strongest wind gusts at German stations „Hamburg
Fuhlsbüttel“ and „List/Sylt“
Hamburg-Fuhlsbüttel
Datum
Höchste Windspitze (km/h)
25./26.01.1990
140,8
30.03.1950
129,6
23.12.1954
128,9
17.10.1967
127,8
26.05.1953
122,4
26.02.1990
122,4
13./14.01.1993
122,4
28.10.2013
120,2
List / Sylt
Datum
Höchste Windspitze (km/h)
03.12.1999
183,6
03.01.1976
163,08
17.01.1967
159,48
16.02.1962
158,4
07.10.1981
158,04
28.10.2013
157,32
• Dynamically downscaled weather stream description 19482013
• Using CCLM regional atmospheric model; grid resolution
about 45 km.
• Using NCEP-2 re-analysis as (spectrally nudged) forcing
• Data set used for various applications, in particular with
respect to wind conditions.
• This re-analysis seems mostly homogeneous since 1956,
describing the right statistics even if the accuracy of the
description of individual events is limited.
• Geyer, B., 2013: High resolution atmospheric reconstruction
for Europe 1948–2012: coastDat2. Earth System Science
Data (ESSD), doi:10.5194/essdd-6-779-2013
Tracks of heavy winter storms (950 hPa core pressure and less once along the track;
October to March 1956-2012) crossing greater Jutland in the CoastDat-II data set.
Track of the Christian/Allan storm according to an analysis by DWD (German
National Meteorological Service (red, dashed) and to the reconstruction in CoastDat
(blue, continuous). The box, showing the mentioned stations with measured peak
gusts, marks the area for the storm statistics.
120
Mean storm travel speed
Mean travel / max wind
for greater (+200 km) Jutland region
80
Christian
40
Xaver
0
20
24
28
Maximum wind speed
32
Number of heavy storms
(with minimum pressure less
than 970 hPa) crossing the
Jutland area during winter
(ONDJFM) seasons according
to the CoastDat data set
Left: Storms with maximum
wind speeds smaller than
Christian/Allan (26.7 m/s);
Right: storms with larger
maximum wind speeds.
Conclusions
• Christian/Allan was a severe storm
• Allan created largest wind gusts recorded in Denmark (but
inhomogeneities possible)
• Christian was 4th strongest event in terms of recorded wind
gusts in Germany
• When compared to reanalysis CoastDat-II, Christian/Allan
appears as strong “normal” rare event.
• A recent tendency towards stronger storms can not be
detected.