Leadership of Data
30 September 2014
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Leadership of Data Conference
General Update
Duncan Baldwin
Deputy Director, ASCL
@duncan_baldwin
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Leadership of Data Conference
“It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking
thirteen.”
Covering
KS2
• Relevant issues
KS4
• Statement of intent
• RAISE
• Ofsted data dashboard
• Progress 8
• Widgets
General updates
(16-18 handout only)
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KS2
•
•
No changes to performance tables in 2014
Future developments
– More challenging tests (from 2016)
– Performance descriptors to inform teacher assessment (2016)
– Improved moderation regime (2015)
– 85% of children to achieve new expected standard
– Floor based on progress and expected standard (must be above
one or the other)
– Reporting by scaled score from 2016; expected standard = 100
•
KS2 tests and RAISE
– KS2 item level analysis for level 6 and GPS
– Can send pdf to secondary school
– 2015 everything will marked at item level
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Question Level Analyses
Statement of Intent – KS4
• Published July 2014
• No new measures but methodology changes
• Wolf implementation – eligible qualifications are:
– Full course GCSE
– Established iGCSE - 1984
– AS levels
– Level 3 Asset Language Ladder
– Level 3 Free-standing Maths Qualifications
– Graded music examinations at grade 6 and above (count
them!)
– Approved level 1, level 2 and level 1/2 qualifications
– All qualifications count as one, regardless of size
• Capping of approved level 1/2 qualifications to two in each
measure - 1984
• Reporting of first entry rather than best
• Intention to publish destination measures earlier
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iGCSE doublethink
“The government has today lifted the restrictions that stopped
state schools offering iGCSE qualifications in key subjects. It
has also announced its intention to include iGCSE results in
school performance tables as soon as possible.”
“The announcement means that state-funded schools will be
free to teach from September a wide range of these respected
and valued qualifications, putting them on a level playing field
with independent schools who have offered them for some
time.”
Department for Education press release 7 June 2010
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Statement of Intent – KS4
• Published July 2014
• No new measures but methodology changes
• Wolf implementation – eligible qualifications are:
– Full course GCSE
– Established iGCSE – see DfE press release1984
– AS levels
– Level 3 Asset Language Ladder
– Level 3 Free-standing Maths Qualifications
– Graded music examinations at grade 6 and above
– Approved level 1, level 2 and level 1/2 qualifications
– All qualifications count as one, regardless of size
• Capping of approved level 1/2 qualifications to two in each
measure - 1984
• Reporting of first entry rather than best
• Intention to publish destination measures earlier
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RAISE changes
• Implications of Wolf
– Time series are broken to reflect significant changes in
2014
– No “GCSE only” references – everything is “high value”
– A single “non-performance tables” report
• First entry rather than best (except in one case)
• Continued slimming down
• Combining reports where it makes sense
• Destinations data included
• “Educational importance” for disadvantaged pupils
• Reminder of data management tool and interactive RAISE
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2013 Report
Performance Tables Approved Qualifications
National figures will be added for 2014
Performance Tables Approved Qualifications
Basics have been combined with English Baccalaureate for 2014
*For 2014 only performance tables approved qualifications will be
counted
Performance Tables Approved Qualifications
The break in time
series for 2014 is
applied to all trend
reports.
Note the heading
makes no
reference to GCSE
or all qualifications
Performance Tables Approved Qualifications
As with
thresholds,
and point
scores overall
best 8 value
added
measures have
a break in time
series
KS4 First Entry/Best Entry
All RAISEonline reports for 2014 reflect first entry except this one where both can
be compared.
Data management will allow schools to make amendments to their own data.
Closing the gap
• The terminology FSM/CLA and non FSM/CLA will be replaced by
“Disadvantaged” and “Other”
• Additional shading will be applied to some 2014 tables to highlight
“educational importance”
• Statistical testing will not be used
• The educationally significant difference will only be shown for
2014 data
• At Key Stage 4 the shading is only shown in expected and more
than expected progress tables
– This ensures that pupils starting points are controlled for
– Differences of more than 3 pupils are shaded
– Red is used when the disadvantaged pupils are below their
peers
– Yellow is used when disadvantaged pupils are above their
peers
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Destinations
•
•
•
•
A single report showing the destinations of Key Stage 4 pupils
Aligned with performance tables reporting
Historic in that it uses 2010/11 years year 11
Validated data will display 2011/12 year 11 data
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Basic information with some pupil
group breakdown
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TA as a proxy for test results
•
•
•
•
•
Current Y11 missing KS2 test data due to boycott
TA will be used as a proxy for tests.
DfE will use halfway point (e.g. 3 -> 3.5, 4-> 4.5, 5-> 5.5)
Some schools greatly affected, some hardly at all
Mean fine grade for L3 is 3.7 and for L5 is 5.3, so use of midpoint underestimates L3 and overestimates L5
• Important to know that about your data.
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Ofsted data dashboard – KS4
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Similar schools methodology change 1984
Now matches DfE model
Break in series because of Wolf (cf RAISE)
Added governors section – points to RAISE online
Under discussion
– Best entry v first entry
– Science – how to display meaningfully
• Developing a parallel dashboard with “more detail” for
school/governors view
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Your Progress 8 opt in status
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A. Already have
B. Probably will
C. Probably won’t
D. Definitely won’t
E. More info needed
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Progress 8
• Schools can opt in for 2015.
– Don’t - Yet! Have until June 2015 to decide
• Becomes headline measure in 2016
• Provisional P8 and A8 data in early 2015, probably on data
checking site
• FFT and ASCL working on how best to support schools
• Eligibility creep – eg statistics, FSMQs
• Someone needs to understand the discounting rules on
your team
• Data providers well ahead – don’t construct your own
spreadsheets!
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Different schools fall beneath the floor - secondary
100%
90%
80%
70%
5A*-C
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
-2
-1.5
-1
0%
-0.5
0
0.5
Progress 8 score (grades)
1
1.5
2
“Widgets”
Purpose
• easy access to the data of individual schools and colleges
through a requirement to publish headline measures on
their websites
• standard presentation of the headline data across all forms
of publication to give a rounded snapshot of a provider’s
overall performance which also allows parents and
students to compare providers against the same measures
• visual presentation of the data so that parents and students
can easily understand how their local school or college
compares to others nationally
• testing our assumptions that parents and students do not
know where to find school and college performance
information
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Widget graphic
Confidence intervals? Are these really 4 separate measures?
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Other items
• Transition matrices have been published for 2013 data –
1984
– Should also be published for 2014
• Change in discounting rules Dance/Drama,
Art/Photography- 1984
– New appeals process in place
• School performance website and data transformation
project -1984
• Grading consultation out
• Possible change to persistent absence
• Fundamental data changes – EAL, Gender
• Alternative performance tables
www.schoolperformancetables.org.uk
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Whilst the information provided at this event was correct to
the best of the knowledge of the presenters and
organisers, neither ASCL nor Professional Development
can accept liability if at a later date this should prove not to
be the case. Nor can they be held responsible for any
errors or any consequences resulting from its use.
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For further support:
Contact ASCL Professional Development
for more information, including details of
our bespoke consultancy services
- email [email protected]
DVDs – email [email protected]
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team, including business managers and senior support staff are
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16-18
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Accountability consultation
Statement of intent
Level 3 VA
Data dashboard for sixth forms
Destinations
PANDA – note that validated PANDA withdrawn
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16-18 accountability consultation
Headline performance measures
• progress (and a combined attainment/completion measure)
• attainment
• English and maths GCSE (for students without at least a
grade C at age 16)
• retention
• destinations.
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16-18 Statement of intent
• A new “add back” rule
– Any students deferred from 2013 will be “added back” in
2014
– Analogous to KS4 tables
– Designed for students following eg 1 year level 2 followed
by 2 year level 3
• AAB in two facilitating subjects only 1984
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Level 3 value added
• Independent schools included for the first time with data included
in the modelling.
It makes no difference!
Includes AS and Applied A levels this year (rather than just A levels)
No changes in presentation or methodology
No links to MIS to help with ready reckoner
TMs are available and very useful, but hidden!
Future:
Shadow data for 2016 changes available in Spring 2015 addressing:
• New piecewise modelling
• New allocation rules
• Prior attainment based on average GCSE grade
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School sixth form data
dashboard
• Expect Spring 2015
• Quintile approach to C in maths and English – comparator
will be SFC and GFEs
• % with 3 or more A level – of entry
• AAB in 2 or more facilitating subjects
• Level 3 VA by quintile
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Destinations
• Legislation to allow data exchange between DfE/BIS and
HMRC to track employment
• Still not robust enough for publication
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