November 6, 2016
Hillary Clinton maintains a narrow lead over Donald Trump despite renewed e-mail
related controversy.
By:
R. Kelly Myers
Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University
603.433.3982
Portsmouth, NH. – Democrat Hillary Clinton maintains her slim lead over Republican Donald
Trump with just days remaining in the presidential campaign. In our most recent nationwide poll,
Clinton leads Trump 48-to-44 percent (due to rounding) among likely voters, compared to 46-to41 percent in mid-October. (The actual difference between Clinton’s 47.6 percent is closer to
Trump’s 44.4 percent). Clinton’s support has inched up 2-points, and Trump’s 3-points.
The FBI’s recent decision to review new e-mails that went through Clinton’s server appears to
be having a modest impact on the vote choice of self-identified political Democrats and
Independents.
These results are based on a recent Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald Poll conducted
by RKM Research, November 1 – 5, 2016. The survey is based on responses from 1,009
randomly selected likely voters. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone.
The maximum sampling margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.
Favorability ratings of presidential candidates:
(November 6, 2016)
Favorability Ratings of presidential candidates (Nov. 6, 2016):
Hillary Clinton
56
42
Donald Trump
55
44
Gary Johnson
37
Jill Stein
16
29 12
Percent
Unfavorable
Favorable
Our polls continue to show that the two presidential candidates remain very unpopular, with
more than one-half of voters holding unfavorable views toward both candidates. Donald Trump
has made small improvements in his rating compared to small declines in Clinton’s ratings.
Donald Trump receives a favorable rating of 44 percent, and an unfavorable rating of 55
percent. Likewise, Hillary Clinton receives a favorable rating of 42 percent, and an unfavorable
rating of 56 percent. Trump’s net favorability ratings, the percentage who view him favorably
minus the percentage who view him unfavorably, has improved to -11, a positive decrease from
-19 percent in our previous poll.
Favorability ratings of Donald Trump compared over time
Favorability ratings of Donald Trump compared over time:
Donald Trump
100
58
57
56
58
55
38
40
41
39
44
7/19/16
9/4/16
9/25/16
10/16/16
11/6/16
Unfavorable
Favorable
0
Nov. 6, 2016
No opinion
1%
Very
favorable
27%
Very
Unfavorable
47%
Somewhat
favorable
17%
Somewhat
unfavorable
8%
The unpopularity of the two leading presidential candidates continues to be exacerbated by the
intensity of voter sentiment. Less than one-half of voters (47%) hold a very unfavorable view of
Donald Trump. Forty-four percent of voters hold a very (27%) or somewhat (17%) favorable
view toward Trump. The percent of voters holding a favorable opinion of Trump is at the highest
since mid-Summer.
Favorability ratings of Hillary Clinton compared over time
Favorability Ratings of Hillary Clinton compared over time:
Hillary Clinton
100
53
55
54
52
56
42
42
43
45
42
7/19/16
9/4/16
9/25/16
10/16/16
11/6/16
Unfavorable
Favorable
0
Nov. 6, 2016
No opinion
2%
Very
Unfavorable
47%
Very
favorable
25%
Somewhat
favorable
17%
Somewhat
unfavorable
9%
Hillary Clinton also has similar favorability problems. Less than one-half of voters (47%) hold a
very unfavorable view of her. Forty-two percent of voters hold very (25%) or somewhat (17%)
favorable view toward Clinton. These results have remained essentially unchanged over time
since July.
Who do you plan to vote for in the election for US President next
Who do
you plan
to vote for
Tuesday,
November
8thin
? the election for US President next Tuesday,
November 8th?
100
0
48
44
44
45
46
41
41
43
41
7
8
2
3
6
2
6
2
4
2
7/19/16
9/4/16
9/25/16
10/16/16
11/6/16
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
44
Stein
Among: All voters (includes “forced choice” responses)
In the election for US President next Tuesday, November 8th, voters are more likely to be
planning vote for Hillary Clinton (48%) than Donald Trump (44%). Few voters said that they plan
to vote for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson (4%), Green Party candidate Jill Stein (2%) or
some other candidate (1%). Only one percent of voters remain unsure who they will vote for
going into Tuesday’s election. Clinton has held a four-point lead over Trump, compared to midOctober when the gap was 5-points.
Presidential Vote Choice Compared by Selected Characteristics
Presidential vote choice compared by selected characteristics
Clinton
Trump
48
Overall
44
14
Republicans
29
Independents
Democrats
Males
Females
79
82
54
12
43
53
48
41
Percent
As expected, presidential vote choice is strongly linked with party identification. Eighty-two
percent of self-identified Democrats said that they plan to vote for Hillary Clinton, and 79 percent
of self-identified Republicans said that they plan to vote for Donald Trump. More Independents
continued to say they will vote for Trump (54%) over Clinton (29%). Trump appears to have
regained support among Independents since mid-October, where he lead Clinton 39 percent to
30 percent.
Trump continues to hold just a 5-point lead over Clinton among male voters, unchanged since
mid-October, while Clinton holds a 12-point lead among female voters (down from 15-points).
Regardless of who you are voting for, who do you think will end up winning
Regardless
of who you are voting for, who do you think will end-up
the presidential
election?
winning the presidential election?
10/16/16
Donald
Trump
11/6/16
Donald
Trump
26
Hillary
Clinton
33
Hillary
Clinton
61
57
Gary
Johnson
<1
Gary
Johnson
<1
Jill Stein
<1
Jill Stein
<1
Other
<1
Other
<1
Unsure
Unsure
12
0
100
10
0
100
More than half of likely voters nationwide currently expect Hillary Clinton to win the presidential
election. When asked who they think will end up winning the presidential election, regardless of
their vote preference, 57 percent predicted Hillary Clinton, 33 percent said Donald Trump, and
10 percent are unsure.
When did
you did
decide
who you
going
to vote
for for
in the
presidential
When
you decide
whowere
you were
going
to vote
in the
presidential election?
election?
Overall
6
Republicans
6
Independents
12
15
9
Democrats
5
19
22
21
7
60 4
54 4
19
47 4
16
0
69 3
Percent
100
Within the last week
Within the last month
Within the last three months
More than three months ago
Still haven't decided
Voters were asked when they decided who they were going to vote for in the presidential
election. A majority of voters (60%) reported that they had made up their minds more than three
months ago, while lesser percentages reported it was within the last three months (19%), within
the last month (12%) or within the last week (6%). Democrats were most likely to have said they
made their vote choice more than three months ago (69%) while self-identified Independents
were more likely to have made their choice more recently (9% within the last week and 21%
within the last month).
In the election for U.S. House of Representatives, do you plan to vote for the
In the
election or
forthe
U.S.Democratic
House of Representatives,
Republican
candidate
candidate? do you plan to
vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate?
Will Vote for
Democrat
45
Overall
46
7
Republicans
85
23
Independents
Democrats
Will Vote for
Republican
83
56
11
Percent
In a generic ballot for the US House of Representatives, the race is currently in a near-dead
heat. When asked if they planned on voting for the Republican or Democratic candidates in their
local House elections, 46 percent of likely voters said the Republican candidate and 45 percent
said the Democratic candidate. As with the race for the Presidency, vote preference is tied
strongly to party identification. Eighty-five percent of Republicans and 83 percent of Democrats
plan to vote within their own party. Self-identified Independents are more likely to vote for the
Republican candidate (56%) than the Democratic candidate (23%).
Are youAre
confident
that your
president
will be
counted
and and
treated
you confident
thatvote
yourfor
vote
for president
will
be counted
treated accurately?
accurately?
Overall
Republicans
Independents
16
80
18
79
27
Democrats
67
11
84
Percent
No – vote will NOT be
counted and treated
accurately
Yes – vote will be
counted and treated
accurately
A strong majority of likely voters believe their votes will be counted accurately. When voters
were asked if they are confident that their vote for president will be counted and treated
accurately, eighty percent said yes while only 16 percent said no. Majorities of Democrats
(84%), Republicans (79%) and self-identified Independents (67%) all said they believe their vote
will be counted accurately.
Do youDo
believe
that the
2016
election
and political
system
are rigged
and
you believe
that
the 2016
election
and political
system
are
rigged and biased?
biased?
Overall
Republicans
Independents
39
55
56
36
44
Democrats
47
22
74
Percent
Yes – rigged and
biased
No – NOT rigged and
biased
Despite strong majorities reporting they believe their votes will be counted accurately, only a
slight majority (55%) said they do not believe the 2016 election and political system are rigged
and biased, while 39 percent believe it is rigged and biased. Republicans (56%) are more likely
to have reported they think the election and system are biased while Democrats (74%) largely
do not believe widespread rigging or biases exist.
Do you have any reservations at all about voting for [Hillary Clinton | Donald
Do you have any reservations at all about voting for …
Trump]?
[Hillary Clinton | Donald Trump]?
Trump Voters
Unsure
1%
Yes
34%
No
65%
Clinton Voters
Unsure
2%
Yes
33%
No
65%
Voters were asked if they had any reservations about voting for their presidential candidate.
Approximately one-third of both Trump voters (33%) and Clinton voters (37%) reported some
reservations about voting for their preferred candidate.
Are you prepared to accept the outcome of the election if …
Are you prepared to accept the outcome of the election if…
Trump Wins?
Unsure
5%
No
22%
Yes
73%
Among Clinton Voters
Clinton Wins?
Unsure
10%
No
20%
Yes
70%
Among Trump Voters
Both Trump and Clinton voters were asked if they are prepared to accept the outcome of the
election if the opposing candidate were to win. Strong majorities of both Trump voters (70%)
and Clinton voters (82%) said they are prepared to accept the results of the election if the other
candidate should win.
Aremore
you more
or less
likely
to vote
Hillary
Clinton
followingthe
theFBI’s
Are you
or less
likely
to vote
for for
Hillary
Clinton
following
FBI’s recent decision to review new e-mails that went through
recent decision to review new e-mails that went through Clinton’s server, or
Clinton’s server, or does this have no effect on who you plan to vote
does this
for? have no effect on who you plan to vote for?
Overall
3
72
Republicans 1
60
Independents 2
Democrats
38 1
69
6
0
24 1
28 2
84
100
Percent
More likely to vote for Clinton
Less likely to vote for Clinton
10 1
No effect
Unsure
Voters were asked whether the FBI’s recent activity involving Clinton’s e-mails has impacted
their likelihood to vote for her. Nearly three-quarters of likely voters (72%) said the FBI’s
decision has no effect on their vote, 24 percent reported it made them less likely to vote for
Clinton and only 3 percent said it made them more likely to do so. With 28 percent of
Independents reporting the issues makes them less likely to vote for Clinton, it is possible the
issue has played a part in Clinton losing ground among Independents. Trump currently leads
Clinton 54-29 among Independents, up from 39-30 in mid-October.
Methodology
The results outlined in this report are based on a survey conducted by RKM Research
on behalf of Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald. All interviews were
conducted by paid, trained and professionally supervised interviewers.
The survey is based on a probabilistic sample of 1,009 likely voters in the United States.
Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone, November 1 – 5, 2016.
The sampling margin of error is +/- 3.1 percent.
The data are weighted to adjust for probability of selection, respondent gender,
respondent age and region of the US. The four regions of the country as reported in this
poll are:
East: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island,
Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, West
Virginia and District of Columbia.
Mid-West: Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa,
Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas.
South: Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky,
Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas
West: Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New
Mexico, California, Oregon, Alaska, Hawaii and Washington.
In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of non-sampling
error including question wording effects, question order effects and non-response.
Any figures shown in the graphics that do not add up to precisely 100 percent are the
result of rounding error.
More information available at www.rkm-research.com (603.433.3982).