Malaysian 6Powerhouses That Returned 13% to 38% Brought to you by CONTENT Introduction................................................. 04 7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings.................... 05 Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia................... 07 Dutch Lady Milk Industries..................... 09 Hartalega Holdings.................................... 11 Karex.............................................................. 13 OldTown........................................................ 15 Disclaimer Bursa Malaysia Berhad (“Bursa Malaysia”) has engaged Pioneers & Leaders (Publishers) Pte Ltd (“Pioneers & Leaders”) to produce this report. The research in this report was conducted independently by Pioneers & Leaders and the views and opinions expressed in this report are Pioneers & Leaders’ own and do not represent the views and opinions of Bursa Malaysia. 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There are no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or results obtained from any information set forth herein. Pioneers & Leaders and Bursa Malaysia, its related and affiliate companies and/or their employees shall in no event be held liable to any party for any direct, indirect, punitive, special, incidental, or consequential damages arising directly or indirectly from the use of any of this material. All content and materials on this report are the exclusive property of Pioneers & Leaders or its content suppliers, and may be downloaded or printed for your own personal and non-commercial use only. Any content may not be copied, reproduced, distributed, republished, reposted, modified, transmitted, made available to the public, adapted, created into a derivative work or otherwise used or exploited for any purpose. 3 Introduction Turbulence. No one likes it, regardless whether you are flying or investing in the equity markets. But we know for a fact that volatility is not going away. Not now, not ever. So, where does one seek shelter when the going gets tough? Companies with market leadership and solid track records typically weather the storm better. In this report, you will find six powerhouses that not only have an established presence in the segments they are serving, they have also attracted a lot of investors’ attention. Buying activities on these counters have boosted share prices by some 13 percent to 38 percent. Read on to find out who they are and if their operational and financial performances are keeping up with their valuations. 11 May 2015 •Shares Investment Equities Research Team •Shares Investment Translation Team [email protected] Visit Shares Investment for more investment research material at : http://www.sharesinv.com 4 7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings: Growing With The Market Giant BY: LOUIS KENT LEE 7-Eleven New Logo Tag Line Listed in May 2014, 7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings (7-11) made a strong debut when it rose more than 6 percent in its first day’s trade. Operating within the standalone convenience store segment of the broader retail sector, 7-11 commands more than 80 percent market share with an approximate store count of some 1,677 within Malaysia. On an estimated breakdown basis, about 10 percent of the total number of stores are run by franchisees, while the remaining 90 percent is run by 7-11. 7-11’s revenue comes from two main segments. • Merchandise sales, which refers to sale of store items from convenience food to tobacco products • Commission sales ; this refers to mobile phone reload services and gaming reload done through 7-11 outlets 600 Stores In The Next 3 Years Comparing the store count between May and end September 2014, a total of 120 new stores were added. The company had mentioned plans of driving growth from opening new stores, and was working towards its established target of 200 stores by end 2014. In the next three years, the company is expecting to open a total of some 600 stores. This strategy hinges on the network effect from the outreach of more stores. The refurbished stores will enhance the store experience and is one of the catalyst to raise same store sales growth and Basic Version Stock Short Name: SEM Code: 5250 YTD Return (as at 15 April): 14.4% Year-To-Date Gains 7-Eleven 14.4% KLCI 5.1% 5 increase the penetration rate of its stores. Do note however that new stores do take a while before consistent and matured top line contribution is generated. Growth From Item Sales With Higher Gross Margins In FY13, 7-11 saw a change in gross profit margin as it rose 1 percentage point to 27.9 percent, compared to that in FY12 of 26.9 percent. Commissions Revenue (RM’000) 70,000 57,403 60,000 50,442 50,000 40,000 43,110 36,629 20,000 10,000 FY10 Investment Merits • Largest player in the convenience retail store segment (>80% market share) • Sound strategy of ramping up stores to increase penetration rate • Underpenetrated sector compared to Asian geographical peers • Shift in product mix to items with higher gross margin could be positive to overall gross profit margins Investment Risks 30,000 0 only 30. Thailand, Hong Kong, and Singapore all boasts convenience store per capita ratio of above 100, with Thailand (176), Hong Kong (170) and Singapore (107). FY11 FY12 FY13 Source: Company Prospectus This was largely attributed to the shift in its product mix towards non-tobacco products, for instance, in-store services’ commissions’ revenue. Now, this segment itself currently has a gross profit margin of 100 percent, and as you can see, it has grown steadily from RM36.6 million in FY10 to RM57.4 million in FY13. The main reason why this segment can command a gross profit margin of 100 percent is primarily due to it bearing negligible cost of sales. Also, on a wider overview, Malaysia is currently the least penetrated within the convenience store industry in the region, with a convenience store per capita ratio of • Slowdown in consumer spending • Expansion complications pertaining its refurbishment plans • Disruption in supply chain pertaining products and services; especially services with 100% gross margin component • Inability to obtain licenses and permits to operate its stores Shares Investment Takeaway Coupling the underpenetrated sector scene compared to geographical peers in the Asian region, there definitely looks like there’s more room for expansionary growth. 7-11’s plans of expanding 600 stores in the next three years might seem aggressive, but depending on how new stores perform, this could actually be a sound strategy that can grow alongside the sector. That said, the key thing to track right now would be execution on 7-11’s part, we’d be tracking, and if you’re interested, you should too. 6 Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia: Is 20.9X PE Expensive? BY: PETER NG For most of us, Carlsberg would likely be a common name among a plethora of alcoholic beverages available in most distribution channels such as supermarkets and convenience stores in Malaysia. According to Maybank IB Research, the maker of Carlsberg in Malaysia, Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia (CBM) has an estimated market share of more than 40 percent of the entire Malaysian beer market as at 9M14. CBM’s primary business operations are in the production and marketing of alcoholic beverages that are for distribution in Malaysia as well as export to other countries. Almost Uninterrupted Growth CBM registered a 19.5 percent growth in revenue between the five years of FY10 and FY14. The company’s revenue accelerated in four out of five times in the same period except FY13 where it fell 1.9 percent to RM1,555.1 million. The underlying reason for the slippage in revenue performance was mainly due to a one-off stock rationalisation exercise conducted by Carlsberg Singapore to reduce its inventory cover days, so as to allow its products to maintain its fresh quality. In addition, the presence of contraband alcohol has not only affected the group but also the entire industry’s performance. Contrabands have also posed threats to all stakeholders including the government in terms of losses in tax revenue collection. Although there are no guarantees as to when or would the Malaysian government even step up its measures Stock Short Name: CARLSBG Code: 2836 YTD Return (as at 15 April): 23.3% Year-To-Date Gains Carlsberg 23.3% KLCI 5.1% 7 5 Years Revenue And Dividend Per Share 1,700.0 0.80 1,600.0 0.60 1,500.0 0.40 1,400.0 0.20 1,300.0 1,200.0 FY10 FY11 Revenue (RM’m) FY12 FY13 FY14 0.00 Dividend Per Share (RM) Source: FactSet to control the presence of contraband alcohol, however, given the aforementioned inefficiencies, I am inclined to think that it is just a matter of time before something materialises. Nonetheless, regardless of the two reasons, the effect imposed on the consumption of alcoholic beverages and ultimately the revenue performance of CBM is likely to be short term and a reversal can be expected in the near future. After all alcohol is consumed despite the ups and downs. Rock Solid Fundamentals Beyond the earnings frontier, CBM holds a rock-solid balance sheet that leverages on merely RM51.9 million in loans and borrowings, representing less than 8 percent of its total assets. Granted that it has RM87.7 million in its cash hoard, this amount is more than enough to offset its borrowings. As CBM is in its mature stage, the need to re-invest earnings to propel growth is relatively lesser, where capital expenditure to net operating cash flow ranged from 4.9 to 18.1 percent in the five-year period between FY10 and FY14. The non-capital intensive nature of the group’s business is definitely an advantage for income investors, as this implies that there will be a larger residual free cash flow amount that can be paid out as dividends after capital expenditure is subtracted from net operating cash flow. Next, CBM recorded a close to seven-fold gain in dividend payments in the same fiveyear period where the latest payout amount in FY14 was recorded at RM0.71. Noting a trend where the company has made several dividend payments that are significantly higher than the free cash flow amounts generated per year, this may lead some to question on the group’s dividend sustainability. However, the gesture of returning excess cash amounts from a company’s balance sheet may not necessarily be a deal breaker, and that is, if the company has no plans to invest the cash amounts, it is a positive sign for the management to return them to shareholders instead. Valuations Based on CBM’s FY14 earnings per share of RM0.692 and closing price on 15 April of RM14.48, CBM’s PE ratio is 20.9, which puts the group’s valuations in the rich territory in the five-year period between FY10 and FY14. When compared to its rival, Guinness Anchor, which is currently trading at 22.7 times its PE ratio, on a relative scale, both companies’ valuations appear to be fair. While the current rich valuations may be a taboo for investors, however, given the current weak consumer sentiments for discretionary spending which is a category that alcohol falls under, this could potentially create entry opportunities for investors as earnings adjust downwards. At the end of the day, this does not represent a permanent change in consumption patterns unless people begin to visit bars for Coca Cola. 8 Dutch Lady Milk Industries: Milking The RM3b Cash Cow BY: CHOO HAO XIANG Milk forms an important portion of a balanced diet. Taking care of Malaysians’ nutritional needs via the supply of quality dairy products for the past 40 years is Dutch Lady Milk Industries. How Does Dutch Lady Make Money? Dutch Lady makes money via sales of dairy products that are for the local and overseas market. The company’s products that are marketed under Dutch Lady and Friso have a strong following as indicated in its revenue growth. Since 1991 when data was made available, revenue has increased at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9 percent to reach a record RM1,000.2 million in FY14. The growth came on the back of the company’s extensive product range, which has widened considerably since its incorporation in 1963, thereby allowing it to capture a farreaching customer base. From infant formula and growing up milk to fruit juice and yoghurt snacks, the company’s products are catered to children and adults. On the supply side, to ensure reliable raw material supplies that goes into its production facility at Petaling Jaya, Dutch Lady initiated its Dairy Development Programme in 2008. The programme is designed to help local farmers produce better quality milk in higher volumes and helps to ensure sustainability of milk supply to the company. Dutch Lady is the largest purchaser of local fresh milk from the Department of Veterinary Services. Stock Short Name: DLADY Code: 3026 YTD Return (as at 15 April): 13.6% Year-To-Date Gains Dutch Lady 13.6% KLCI 5.1% 9 Established Market Presence Dutch Lady is the local market leader in key milk categories such as ultra heat treated milk, sterilised milk and growing-up milk. The company is also one of the accredited suppliers appointed by the Ministry of Education. Under the Program Sekolah Susu 1Malaysia, Dutch Lady supplies milk to more than 200,000 school children in Kelantan and Terengganu. This can go a long way in fortifying the company’s brand value. Consistent Solid Results The beauty of selling a daily necessity is that it provides stability. For the past decade, earnings had been rising at a CAGR of 16.8 percent to RM109.8 million in FY14. Behind the hike were increasing revenue and good cost controls. The company has been keeping its costs in check as its profitability metrics have been improving. Of course, high earnings quantity means nothing without earnings quality. Measured by the ratio of operating cash flow to net profit, Dutch Lady has a 10-year average of 1.2. This essentially means that the company’s earnings quality is superior as it is not dependent on non-cash sources that are one-time in nature such as mark-to-market valuations. Going back to profitability measures, the company’s ROE ballooned to 63.7 percent in FY14 from 14.1 percent 10 years ago. For prudent investors, they will be glad to find out that the surge was achieved with zero debt on its balance sheet. This translates to the company’s ability to grow without debt funding. To reward its shareholders, Dutch Lady has been dishing out dividends regularly, apportioning a third of its earnings on Free Cash Flow And Dividends (Figures In RM) 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 Free Cash Flow per Share FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Dividends per Share Source: FactSet average for the past five years and paying them out as dividends. More interestingly, a look at free cash flow per share and dividend per share figures, reveals that since FY02, free cash flow generated has been larger than dividend paid. This shows that the company still has sufficient residual cash even after setting aside the money required to maintain or expand its asset base, to pay it out as dividends. Valuation Dutch Lady is currently trading at 28.1 times its FY14 earnings. This is on the high side considering its most recent five-year range of 13.9 to 24.7 times. While the company is not likely to run into any issue in sustaining its dividends payout in the foreseeable future, with its valuation near historic high, investors might turn cautious and want to learn about how Dutch Lady intends to defend its market position and ensure that its growth trajectory is sustainable amidst intensifying competition before committing. 10 Hartalega Holdings: 44.6% Rebound From 1-Year Low, What’s Next? BY: TAN JIA HUI Malaysia is the world’s largest supplier of natural rubber and nitrile rubber gloves and is estimated to supply over 60 percent of the global glove demand. While there are many players in Malaysia’s glove industry, Hartalega Holdings stands out as the indisputable market leader, particularly in the nitrile glove segment. Industry And Company Background The rubber glove market can be separated into two major components – natural rubber gloves and nitrile rubber gloves. The former is produced using natural rubber while the latter is manufactured using synthetic latex rubber. While natural rubber gloves have accounted for the largest portion of the global rubber glove demand, global nitrile gloves demand has been increasing steadily in the past years, surpassing natural rubber glove in 2013 with a demand ratio of 51 percent to 49 percent, as noted by the company. The growing demand for nitrile gloves can be attributed to the rising awareness of latex allergies, high puncture resistance property of nitrile gloves and an increase in healthcare spending worldwide. Hartalega is a pioneer in the rubber glove industry, introducing the world’s first soft nitrile glove in 2002, starting the demand shift from latex to nitrile gloves all over the globe. Today, Hartalega prides itself as the world’s largest nitrile glove producer, with annual production capacity of 13.6 billion gloves. As of FY14 (financial year ended 31 March 2014), nitrile gloves sales account for more than 90 percent of the group’s total sales. Stock Short Name: HARTA Code: 5168 YTD Return (as at 15 April): 17.8% Year-To-Date Gains Hartalega 17.8% KLCI 5.1% 11 Operating Margin 35% 30.9% 32.1% 30% 27.7% 29.0% X X 27.0% 25% 20% 15% X 10% X 5% 0% FY09 /10 Hartalega^ FY10/11 FY11/12 Supermax* X FY12/13 Kossan* X FY13/14 TopGlove^ Source: FactSet */^: Company’s latest ended fiscal year is FY13/FY14. Superior Margins As a pioneer in the nitrile glove segment, Hartalega has been able to enjoy supernormal operating margin above 27 percent in the last five years, well above the operating margins of its competitors (below 19 percent). According to the company, the superior margins are achieved through product innovation and quality enhancement, with the firm spearheading the automation technology in manufacturing processes since 1994. Today, Hartalega has 55 production lines that are fully interchangeable between nitrile and natural rubber gloves production, which allows the group to cater quickly to changes in demand trends. The firm also boasts the fastest production line speed of 45,000 pieces/hour/line in its latest Plant 6. With increasing competition from other players who are also raising emphasis and capacity on nitrile glove production, increment in efficiency is needed for Hartalega to stay at the top of its game. Positive Catalyst: NGC Plant With an estimated total investment value of RM2.2 billion, Hartalega’s next generation glove manufacturing complex (NGC) is poised to be a growth driver for the group. According to the firm, the mega complex will house six manufacturing plants and 72 production lines, which is expected to increase production capacity by 15 percent annually until 2020. Upon completion, the group’s production capacity will expand substantially to over 42 billion pieces per annum. Management has stated that the first phase of the NGC will begin operations in November. Under phase one, 2 plants with 12 production lines will be commissioned and completed by 4Q15 (quarter ending 31 March 2015), boosting installed capacity to 22 billion by FY16. The development of its NGC plant highlights the group’s focus on productivity. Streamlined plants and warehouses as well as automation and technologically advanced production lines installation, may help sustain the firm’s supernormal margins amidst competition. Targets And Ratings Out of the 12 research houses that cover the stock, three have issued a ‘Buy’ rating; five have given a ‘Hold’ rating, while three have ‘Sell’ ratings with an average target price of RM8.01. The company closed at RM8.25 on 15 April, after rebounding some 44.6 percent from its one-year low in May 2014. Furthermore, based on data from FactSet, Hartalega is currently trading near its 5-year high trailing twelve month price to earnings of 30.9 as of 15 April, the highest amongst its peers, something which investors should also be taking into consideration. 12 47.5% Upside Potential For Karex Not Impossible BY: LOUIS KENT LEE Karex is the world’s largest condom manufacturer with a market share of some 10 percent globally. Yes. Globally. Apart from manufacturing its own brands of condoms under the brand names “Carex” and “INNO”, Karex manufactures for renowned brands like Durex, Lifestyle, Trustex, and One. It has sales points spreading across more than 110 countries. Further Penetration In Market Share It is estimated that by 2018, the global consumption for condoms will reach 38.2 billion, registering some compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of some 9 percent. Karex upped its production capacity from 3 billion pieces per annum to 4 billion pieces per annum for FY14. Guidance from the company revealed that Karex is on a steadfast expansion plan to push its manufacturing capacity to reach 6 billion pieces per annum throughout 2015 and 2016. This would mean a probable increase of market share to some 16 percent instead of the current 10 percent. Stock Short Name: KAREX Code: 5247 YTD Return (as at 15 April): 37.9% Year-To-Date Gains Hands Down Competition Looking across the manufacturing capacity of the World’s 10 largest condom manufacturers (shown in table 1), it is noted that Karex’s capacity then already exceeds that of its closest competitor by some 50 percent. This trend is very likely to continue, and it is not surprising if the capacity gap widens based on the production goals set by Karex (6 billion pieces). As of 1Q15, Karex reported that its manufacturing capacity has increased from 3.5 billion pieces for FY14 to 4 billion in 1Q15. Karex 37.9% KLCI 5.1% 13 In addition to that, there is also minimal industry competition as Karex’s competitors are more focused on branding and selling their own condoms. Table 1: World Largest Condom Manufacturers Company Annual Geography Capacity 1 Karex 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Malaysia, Thailand TTK-LIG Ltd India Thai Nippon Rubber Industry Co Ltd Thailand HLL Lifecard Ltd India Suretex Ltd Thailand Qingdao London Durex Co Ltd China Guillin Latex Factory China Unidus Corp China Guangzhou Guangxiang China Enterprises Group Co. Ltd Doubleon Latex Factory Pleasure Latex Products S/B Malaysia Profitability Margins (%) 70 7.38 30 20 1.5 - 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0 This is the complete opposite of Karex’s business model as sales from its own brand of condoms only make up less than 5 percent of its total revenue, while more than approximately 60 percent of its revenue is from the manufacturing and supply of condoms to brand owners such as Durex, Trustex and ONE. Superior Margins, Profitability Likely To Ensue We note that Karex has reflected stready growth in its profitability ratios. Specifically, gross margins, net margins, operating margins have all been constantly rising. With further traction expected from higher economies of scale, and the reduced price of its raw materials such as rubber, we think it is not difficult to see further increase in its gross margins. It is noteworthy that current performance on its sheets have not even taken consideration of the full effect of its 55 percent purchase of 15.73 12.55 40 10 Source: Company, Infobusiness Research 15.78 50 3.0 0.7 18.86 60 29.09 6.37 4.36 3.84 25.89 17.41 13.69 FY11 FY12 Gross Margin FY13 Net Margin FY14 Operating Margin Source: Company, FactSet Global Protection Corp (GPC), the company behind ONE brand condoms. The acquisition, which effectively enables Karex to diversify its target market and expand its list of distribution countries will see Karex having access to some 25,000 stores in the US and Canada that GPC owns. Consolidating the expected increase in reach and contributions flowing in from GPC, Karex’s performance for 2015 is worthwhile to look forward to. Dividend Policy, Valuation Room Consensus With effect from FY14, Karex also declared its minimum 25 percent dividend payout to shareholders. We feel that the dividend policy is sustainable and it is not difficult for the company to reward its shareholders on a constant basis, and not impossible for it to grow. The mean target price on the street attributes a 47.5 percent upside for Karex’s current price (pre-adjusted close on 16 December) of RM3.20. The target range lies from RM4.57 to RM5.10 for Karex. 14 More Than 35% Market Share In Malaysia; Revealing The OldTown Magic BY: LOUIS KENT LEE OldTown, who was one of the pioneers for the commercialisation of large-scale white coffee processing, boasts more than 35 percent market share in the white coffee sub-segment in Malaysia. Similarly, it also boasts about 12 percent market share in the coffee mix segment. Now, let’s take a look at some few key anchor investment merits of OldTown. The Dual Sword Strategy That Works Its two key operations; Café Chain (F&B) and the beverage manufacturing (FMCG) business complement each other very well as a single brand strategy approach. It has enabled the efficient cross-selling and brand building strategies of the group where the F&B segment expounds its footprints by opening café outlets, and the FMCG segment spearhead market penetration into new markets via modern trade channels. Market Leader In Café/Coffeehouse Industry In Malaysia Currently OldTown has a total chain of 246 café outlets in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and China. OldTown leads the café industry in Malaysia with Starbucks, Papparich and Coffee Bean trailing behind. As of 9M15, sales of the F&B segment contributes approximately 53 percent of the group’s total revenue. Mass Market And Halal Certified OldTown’s café targets the mass market audience with an Stock Short Name: OLDTOWN Code: 5201 YTD Return (as at 15 April): 18.7% Year-To-Date Gains OldTown 18.7% KLCI 5.1% 15 obvious product differential pricing model that’s apparent when compared to its peers. (e.g. less than RM5 for a cup of OldTown white coffee versus a cup of Americano in Starbucks at more than RM5 easily) The selection of its locations at high traffic outlets, targeted set meals offerings in the breakfast, lunch, teabreak, dinner, and late night supper clusters gels the stickiness of repeat customers. In Malaysia, more than 66 percent of the population is made up of Malays, and currently 20 to 25 percent of OldTown’s customer base is Malays. All food and beverages sold at OldTown’s café outlets is Halal. This effectively allows the group to tap effectively on multi-pronged promotional activities that include Hari Raya, the fasting month, and importantly, cater to multiple target consumer clusters. Ramped Production Meets Strong Distribution The group added a new beverage manufacturing facility that commenced operation in mid-2013, with enough unutilised capacity to enable the group to cope with rising demand for future growth in the next five years. Increased capacity can only be viewed in good light with corresponding strength in distribution. The group’s distribution network spans across the ASEAN region with prominent light seen in Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and Taiwan. Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Growth (FY11-FY14) 33.9% 21.8% 63.2% 73.4% Source: Company, Factset, Bloomberg FY14 Reported Numbers RM382.2m RM48.94m RM67.5m RM50.13m Strong Numbers As a testament to its growing presence and ability to capitalise on store growth and its products from its FMCG sector, revenue has been steadily increasing over the past 3 years. This is followed with steady year on year increases in its net income. Notably, what caught my attention was the steady increases seen in its operating cash flow and free cash flow, where operating cash flow for FY14 actually eclipsed net income, endorsing the strength of OldTown’s operations generating cash. As it was on an expansionary route to increase its store counts and production capacity over the past three years, the fact that free cash flow also sung the same steady increases over the three year period shows that OldTown’s expansionary measures are well contained. Its operating margin (FY14) is also in the high teens (currently at 17.4 percent), which is higher than that of its close domestic peer such as Berjaya Food (16.3 percent). Return on equity of 15.26 percent also ranks it higher than that of Berjaya Food (14.82 percent). Its current cash hoard is huge and makes up approximately 40 percent of its total assets. This is more than enough to pare off total liabilities of RM89.7 million for FY14. Valuation OldTown’s Price Earnings (PE) is currently at 16.2x, which is considered not overtly expensive when decked to its 52-week PE range of 13.4x to 21.2x. OldTown also boasts a dividend yield of some 3.7 percent, with a payout ratio of 50 percent. 16
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