UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS
P.O Box 7186, Kampala, Tel: 0414-706000, Email: [email protected], Website: www.ubos.org
PRESS RELEASE
QUARTERLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 1STQUARTER 2015/16
HIGHLIGHTS
QGDP Constant Prices.
Seasonally Adjusted Estimates
The real Quarterly Gross Domestic Product (QGDP) is
estimated to have grown by 0.3 percent in the first
Quarter of 2015/16 compared to a growth of 1.7 percent
(revised) in the fourth Quarter of 2014/15.
Graph 1
Sectoral Performance
Agriculture sector is estimated to have declined by 0.3
percent in the first Quarter of 2015/16 compared to a
growth of 3.3 percent (revised) in the previous Quarter.
The main contributors to this decline were Food Crops
and Forestry growing activities. Cash crops growing
activities, however, registered a 12.2 percent growth in
Value Added during this quarter.
On the other hand, the Industry Sector is estimated to
have recorded a growth of 1.6 percent in the first Quarter
of 2015/16 from a growth of 1.8 percent (revised) in the
fourth Quarter of 2014/15. The main contributors to the
growth were manufacturing, electricity supply and
construction activities. However, value added for mining
and quarrying activities declined by 5.4 percent.
In addition, the Services sector is estimated to have
grown by1.4 percent in the first Quarter of 2015/16 as
compared to a growth of 0.6 in the fourth Quarter of
2014/15.The main drivers to the sector growth were
Accommodation and Food services, Financial and
Insurance, Information and communication as well as
Public Administration services.
A decline in value added, however, was registered in
Trade and repairs, Professional, Scientific and Technical,
Administration and Support as well as Arts,
Entertainment and Recreation services in the first quarter
of 2015/16.
Trend Cycle Estimates
Gross Domestic Product in the first Quarter of 2015/16
grew by 0.5 percent compared to a growth of 0.8 percent
in the fourth Quarter of 2014/15.
Seasonally Adjusted QGDP at Current Prices
QGDP in current prices for the first Quarter of 2015/16 is
estimated to have grown to 20,511 billion Shillings from
19,810 billion Shillings in fourth Quarter of 2014/15.
Gross Value Added share for Industry and services grew
to 21.5 percent and 47.3 percent from the 20.0 percent
and 47.2 percent respectively, registered in the fourth
quarter of 2014/15.
However, the Gross Value Added share for Agriculture
declined to 23.2 percent in the first Quarter from the 24.5
percent in the fourth Quarter of 2014/15.
Ben Paul Mungyereza
Executive Director
January 28, 2016
Graph 2
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) FOR QUARTER ONE 2015/16
1.
Introduction
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant 2009/10 prices for first Quarter of 2015/16 is estimated to have
grown by 0.3 percent to 13,932 billion shillings from 13,895 billion (revised) in Q4 2014/15.
Explanations for the changes
1.1.
Agriculture, fishing and forestry
Value Added for the Agriculture sector, with a contribution of 23.2 percent to Quarter One GDP, grew by 0.3
percent from 3,294 to 3,283 billion Uganda Shillings. Food crop growing registered a decline in value added
from a growth of 1.3 percent in Quarter four 2014/15 to a decline of 2.2 in Quarter One of 2015/16.This was
due low productivity of major food crop growing activities such as maize, beans, cassava and bananas mainly
attributed to the delay in rains.
Cash crop growing increased by 12.2 percent in Q1 2015/16 as compared to a growth of 2.5 percent in Q4
2014/15.Growth in Value added for cash crop growing activities was as a result of increase in productivity of
coffee and cotton. Agriculture support services registered a decline of 2.6 percent in Q1 2015/16 compared to a
growth of 6.6 in Q4 2014/15.
1.2.
Industry
Value added for the industry sector, with a share of 21.5 percent of overall QGDP, grew by 1.6 percent from
2,560 billion shillings in Q4 2014/15 (revised) to 2,602 billion shillings in Q1 2015/16.The main drivers of this
growth were Manufacturing, Water, Electricity and Construction activities which registered a growth in value
added of 1.2 percent, 1.8 percent, 3.2 percent and 3.6 percent respectively. This was as a result of increase in
production of bricks and cement, and chemicals, paint, soap and foam activities and a reduction in tariffs on
domestic goods, electricity, fuel and utilities thus boosting the manufacturing sector.
On the other hand, value added for mining and quarrying activities declined in Q1 2015/16.
1.3. Services
The services sector, with a share of 47.3 percent of total value added increased by1.4 percent in Q1 2015/16
compared to a growth of 0.6 in Q4 2014/15. There was a decline in the value added for Trade and Repairs in
Q1 2015/16 by 0.3 percent as compared to a 1.0 decline in Q4 2014/15. This was as a result of increased
tariffs on import goods such as oil and petroleum products and the persistent increase in the dollar value which
made goods and services more expensive. The negative performance in Arts, Entertainment & Recreation from
a growth of 1.3 percent in Q4 2014/15 to a decline of 2.8 percent Q1 2015/16 is attributed to a slack in
recreational activities as a result of prolonged heavy rains. Also, Value Added for Administration and Support
Services went from a growth of15.5 percent to a decline of43.0 percent in Q1 2015/16.
There was an increase in Value added for Public Administration by 5.2 percent in Q1 2015/16 as compared to
a decline of 3.2 percent in Q4 2015/16.
1.4. Taxes on products and subsidies
Value added for taxes on products and subsidies with a share of 8.0 percent of QGDP declined by 7.6 percent
from 1,172 billion shillings in Q4 2014/15 to 1,082 billion shillings in Q1 2015/16.
1.5. Data revisions
Due to availability of actual data and additional information, revisions to previous estimates were made for
General Government, Hotel and Accommodation, Manufacturing and ICT activities.
,
ii