PERSPECTIVES
What can Trump do
with the Republicans
controlling both Houses?
Will the Republicans’ clean sweep that brought them control of the
House of Representatives, the Senate and the presidency give them
free rein, allowing incoming President Donald Trump to pass more
legislation than his predecessors? Not quite – as our historical analysis
shows. Few laws make it through the bureaucratic process and major
laws require a larger majority than Trump will enjoy.
It would seem obvious an aligned Congress would make it easier for any president to
pass laws, compared to facing an opposed or split Congress, as was the challenge for
President Barack Obama’s last six years in office.
In reality, however, a very small proportion of proposed bills become law in any
scenario.
IN REALITY A VERY SMALL PROPORTION OF BILLS ARE PASSED
30,000
Bills enacted
Bills not enacted
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Legislation enacted as a percentage of legislation introduced per congressional term
Not only that, but enacted bills have also generally been a shrinking fraction of all bills
proposed in the last 30 years. In fact, the current congressional term looks on course to
record the lowest number of bills ever passed.
THE PROPORTION OF BILLS BEING PASSED IS IN DECLINE
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Percentage of legislation enacted per congressional term
Surprisingly, there is no clear positive link between the number of enacted bills and the
degree of party congressional control. In Obama’s first (two-year) congressional term the
Democrats controlled both houses, yet significantly fewer laws were passed in this term
than in the preceding one under George W Bush, who had to contend with an unaligned
Congress.
CONGRESSIONAL CONTROL NOT CORRELATED WITH NUMBER OF LAWS PASSED
1,000
Democrat clean sweep
Republican clean sweep
800
600
*
400
200
0
HT
DDE
1950
JFK LBJ
RN
1960
GF JC
1970
RR
GB
1980
BC
1990
GWB
BO
2000
2010
Legislation enacted per congressional term
Ultimately, presidencies are defined by a few major pieces of legislation, such as
Obamacare or the Civil Rights Act, rather than the volume of bills enacted. Just a cursory
look at the signed bills record for the current Congressional term shows that an
overwhelming majority of the hundreds of bills passed are uncontroversial (and often
procedural).
Passing any polarising legislation typically requires a senate ‘supermajority’. A simply
majority (> 50%) gets a bill through the House of Representatives, but to avoid an
opposition ‘filibuster’, a supermajority of 60 votes is needed in the Senate. The graphic
below shows that such instances of presidential alignment with both houses and a
Senate supermajority are rare.
LAWS PASSED IN SENATE SUPERMAJORITY PERIODS
1000
Democrat clean sweep
with a supermajority
800
600
*
400
200
0
HT
DDE
1950
JFK LBJ
RN
1960
GF JC
1970
RR
1980
GB
BC
1990
GWB
BO
2000
2010
Legislation enacted per congressional term
Remarkably, Obamacare is the only major law to be passed in the face of 100%
opposition from opposing party members in both houses. What made this highly divisive
legislation possible was not just a simple majority in both houses (something Trump also
has) but, crucially, an effective senate ‘supermajority’ (something Trump does not have),
thanks to the support of two independent senators and a Republican senator’s decision
to switch parties mid-session.
CHANGES IN COMPOSITION FOR INCOMING 115TH US CONGRESS
undecided
independent
1
51
1
2
Incoming Senate
54
240
46
Incoming Congress
247
44
194
188
2
Outgoing Senate
Outgoing Congress
With just 51 Republicans (or 52 if they win the Louisiana run-off in December), the
incoming Senate majority is slim. It’s also worth bearing in mind that Trump has failed to
earn the full support of the entire party. Political commentator Nate Silver estimates there
could be 5–10 Republican Senators who defect, blocking him from confirming his
cabinet, making successful Supreme Court appointments, or passing new pieces of
legislation.
HT: H Truman, DDR: DD Eisenhower, JFK: JF Kennedy, LBJ: LB Johnson, RN: R Nixon, GF: G Ford, JC: J Carter,
RR: R Reagan, GB: GHW Bush, BC: B Clinton, GWB: GW Bush, BO: B Obama
* In the 2001/02 term, the House was controlled by the Republicans but the Senate saw three changes in
majorities during this term. The Democrats did not technically have a Supermajority in the 2009/2010 term, but
were helped to magic number by two independent senators and a Republican defection.
Sources: Govtrack.us, November 2016; FiveThirtyEight, Which Republican Senators Are Most Likely To Fight
Trump? 21 November 2016
IC16-128