Bernard Hickey 's Opinion
BernardisaneconomicscolumnistfortheNZHerald
Bernard Hickey: Tech revolution
threatens millions of jobs
Technologyistakingevermorejobs.
Thisweek'sreportonTheFutureofJobsfortheDavoseconomic
talkfestinSwitzerlandhasrefocusedattentiononwhetherthe
waveoftechnologychangesweepingaroundtheglobewill
actuallymakemostpeoplericher.
Theunsettlingconclusionfromthereportisthatafourth
IndustrialRevolutionwilldestroymillionsofwhite-andblue-collar
jobsoverthenextfouryearsalone,butcreatefarfewerjobs.It
willalsoputdownwardpressureonwagesformanyofthe
remaininglower-skilledworkerswhohavethejobsrobotscan't
do-yet.
Itposesdeepquestionsabouthowweeducate,trainandretrain
ouryoungandold,howwetaxthewinnerswhotakeall,andhow
wesupportthosewhocan'tgetjobsinthisbravenewworld.
Italsoforcedmetolookmoreintothehistoryofaninsult.
Ihavebeencalleda"Luddite"atvarioustimesoverthepast
coupleofdecadesbymygeekierfriendswhosawmeasalate
adopter.NooneisquitesurewhotheLudditemovementwas
namedafter,butlegendhasitthatayoungunemployedweaver
fromthenorthofEnglandcalledNedLuddsmashedamechanical
knittingmachinein1779inafitofrageafterbeingwhippedfor
idleness.
Artisansandskilledcraftsmenadoptedthelegendof"Captain
Ludd"toinspirethemintheirprotestsagainsttheriseof
mechanisationfrom1811to1817.Theyorganisedthemselves
intogroupstobreakintofactoriestosmashthemachinesthat
hadcostthemtheirjobs.Astheindustrialrevolutionprogressed
overthefollowing200years,hundredsofmillionsofnewjobs
werecreatedinareasthatnoonehadthoughtpossible.Someof
thoseartisanschangedjobsandtheirchildren,onceeducated,
wentintonewskilledjobsthatmadethemricher.
Someneverrecoveredandsankintopovertyandthefirst
industrialrevolution'sprogresstowardsprosperityformostwas
nosmoothprocess.Eventuallytheindustrialisedworldsettledon
amixedeconomymodel,wherethestateprovidededucationand
othersocialsafetynetstomakesurethesonsanddaughtersof
thoseweaversweretrainedandhealthyandabletoparticipatein
(andvoteon)thetechno-future.
Thedebateoverwhethernewtechnologyisanetcreatoror
destroyerofwealthandjobsappearedtobeover.
Fastforwardto2016andnowthequestionisbeingaskedagain:
doesallthistechnologicalchangemakeusricher?Itisnotabout
whethertotrytostoptheprogress,butabouthowtoadjustour
educationsystems,trainingregimes,taxandbenefitsystems.
TheFutureofJobsreportconcludedthatthisFourthIndustrial
Revolutionwoulddestroy7.1millionjobsby2020andonlycreate
2.1millionjobs.Thereport'sauthorsrecommendnewtraining
andeducationregimes,butstopshortoflookingattaxratesor
benefits.
Thesewillbethedebatesofourage.Howdoweincludeallour
citizensinthisbravenewworldandensuretheyhaveadecent
wagetosupportthemselvesorthattheyareprovidedforfrom
taxespaidbythehyper-wealthy?Theotherreporttodominate
thedebateatDavoswasfromOxfam,whichshowedtheworld's
richest62peoplehavethesameamountofwealthastheworld's
poorest50percent.TheLudditesmaybeaswrongin2016as
theywerein1811,butthisnewwinner-takes-allglobaleconomy
coulddowithafewtweaks.
-HeraldonSunday