Prospects for U.S. Agribusiness in Cuba Key Points American agribusiness continues to lose market share to the EU, Brazil, Argentina, and Vietnam due to current U.S. policies. The U.S. now ranks 5th in agricultural exports to Cuba. Cuba’s agricultural imports are expected to grow as increased tourism fuels demand for food products, especially those of higher quality, and as remittances flow more freely due to U.S. policy revisions—all within the context of stagnant Cuban production. If Congress were to change U.S. policy on agricultural exports to Cuba, U.S. exports would be more competitive and able to recapture lost market share. Table of Contents U.S.-Cuba Overview………2 Alabama.……………………3 Arkansas…..……………….4 Georgia…...…………………5 Illinois…..……………….…..6 Iowa…..……………………...7 Indiana...…………………….8 Kansas...…………………….9 Louisiana...……..…………10 Minnesota..….…………….11 Mississippi….…………..…12 Missouri...………...………..13 Nebraska...………...……….14 North Dakota……...…….....15 Ohio………………...…….....16 Tennessee...………...………17 Texas……....………...………18 Report produced by Engage Cuba, in coordination with Brian D. Healy, [email protected] (202) 720-8322, USDA-FAS, Office of Global Analysis, Global Policy Analysis Division. Alternate contact: [email protected] Key Points • American agribusiness continues to lose market share to the EU, Brazil, Argentina, and Vietnam due to current U.S. policies. The U.S. now ranks 5th in agricultural exports to Cuba. • Cuba’s agricultural imports are expected to grow as increased tourism fuels demand for food products, especially those of higher quality, and as remittances flow more freely due to U.S. policy revisions—all within the context of stagnant Cuban production. • If Congress were to change U.S. policy on agricultural exports to Cuba, U.S. exports would be more competitive and able to recapture lost market share. U.S.-Cuba Overview Cuba imports up to 80% of its food. In 2015, Cuban agricultural imports totaled almost $2 billion, nearly doubling since 2004. Cuba’s main imports include rice (14%), poultry (13%), dairy (12%), soy products (12%), wheat (12%), and corn (9%). The top U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba are poultry, soybean meal, and corn. As a result of U.S. policies, American agribusiness is losing ground to countries who are able to offer financing. The Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act (TSRA) of 2000 prohibits U.S. exporters from extending credit to Cuba’s agricultural importers. Consequently, the U.S. fell from its position as the #1 or #2 supplier of agricultural products from 2003 to 2012; the U.S. is now Cuba’s #5 supplier after the EU, Brazil, Argentina, and Vietnam. Significant opportunities exist for American agribusiness in Cuba, from exporters of agricultural commodities and food products to associated industries that will benefit from greater market access. Demand for high quality U.S. agricultural products is driven not only by the increasing purchasing power of 11 million Cubans, but also by remittances and tourism, which are expected to rise dramatically. In order to capitalize, we must change U.S. policy. Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports to Cuba Million USD U.S. Losing Market Share in Cuba 500 450 400 Sugar & Tropical Products 350 Cotton, Linters & Waste 300 Horticultural Products 250 Livestock & Meats 200 Dairy & Products 150 Grains & Feeds 100 Oilseeds & Products Poultry & Products 50 0 2010 Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS), Global Trade Atlas 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: USDA FAS, Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS) *Updated as of May 10, 2016 2 Opportunity Outlook: Alabama Alabama exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in 2015, U.S. agricultural exports totaled $149 million, a 48% drop from 2014. The U.S. share of total exports fell to less than 9% in 2015, down from 40% in 2009. Alabama is the #2 U.S. exporter of poultry, reaching $478 million in broiler meat exports in 2014—almost one-third of the state’s total agricultural export value. In 2015, the U.S. exported $78 million in poultry meat to Cuba—comprising 36% of the market. This represents a significant loss in market share to Brazil, as the U.S. had held an average of 75% poultry market share in Cuba over the last decade. Cuba is consistently a significant export market for U.S. poultry: in 2015, Cuba was the 9th largest market for U.S. poultry exports. As a top poultry exporter, Alabama stands to gain from the increasing trend in Cuba’s poultry imports and recapturing market share from Brazil. Alabama’s other top exports, such as soybeans, wheat, feed and feed grains, will be increasingly important for Cuba’s agricultural imports as its livestock sector develops. In 2015, 12% of Cuba’s agricultural imports were soybean products (meal plus soybean oil), 12% wheat, and 4% feed and fodder. The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost soybean product market share to Argentina and Brazil. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, 2015 Alabama’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rice 14% Other 24% Poultry Meat & Products 13% Feed & Fodder 4% Soybean Oil 4% Wheat 12% Soybean Meal 8% Corn 9% Dairy Products 12% Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Commodity Broiler Meat (Chicken) Cotton Other Plant Products Other Oilseeds & Products Soybeans Other Livestock Products Wheat Other Poultry Products Beef and Veal Feeds & Feed Grains Source: USDA ERS Top U.S. Broiler Chicken Exporters in 2014 Cuba’s Broiler Meat Imports 600 250 500 200 1000 MT 400 300 200 150 100 50 100 Source: USDA ERS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2011 2012 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 Delaware 2005 Texas 2004 North Arkansas Mississippi Carolina 2003 Alabama 2002 Georgia 2001 0 0 2000 Million $ Value (millions) $478.0 $182.0 $170.3 $117.5 $117.2 $71.2 $69.1 $66.0 $58.8 $39.8 Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 3 Opportunity Outlook: Arkansas Arkansas exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to offer credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Arkansas is the #1 U.S. rice exporter. Cuba has the highest per capita rice consumption in the Western Hemisphere: about 177lbs per person, compared to 26lbs in the U.S. Prior to the embargo, Cuba was typically the largest market for U.S. long-grain rice exports. Since FY2009, Cuba has not imported any significant quantity of rice from the U.S. The U.S. held nearly 40% of market share in FY2004, but it has been lost to Vietnam and Brazil, who offer credit to Cuba. Arkansas is the #4 U.S. exporter of poultry, reaching $475 million in 2014. Approximately 10% of Cuba’s agricultural imports are poultry meat and poultry products. In spite of the embargo, Cuba is consistently a significant export market for U.S. poultry; in FY2015, Cuba was the 8th largest market for U.S. poultry exports. In 2014, the U.S. exported $148 million in poultry meat to Cuba—comprising 77% of the market—but fell to 52% market share at $96 million in 2015. As a top exporter, Arkansas stands to gain from growth in Cuba’s poultry imports and recapturing market share from Brazil, which owns 43% of the market as of FY2015. Soybeans and corn, Arkansas’s #1 and #7 exports, will be increasingly important as Cuba’s livestock sector develops in the longer term. Already, of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports, 13% are soybean products (meal plus soybean oil) and 11% corn. The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost market share to Argentina and Brazil. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, FY2014 Arkansas’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dairy Products 14% Other 24% Wheat 13% Feed & Fodder 5% Soybean Oil 5% Soybean Meal 8% Corn 11% Poultry Rice 10% 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas Commodity Soybeans Rice Broiler Meat Cotton Soybean Meal Other Poultry Products Corn Feeds & Feed Grains Vegetable Oils Processed Grain Source: USDA ERS Cuban Rice Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share Cuba’s Broiler Meat Imports 250 800 700 200 1000 MT 600 500 400 300 150 100 50 200 100 Source: USDA ERS Imports from U.S. *Updated as of May 10, 2016 Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database 4 2016 2015 2014 2013 2011 2012 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2014/15 2013/14 2012/13 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10 2008/09 2007/08 2006/07 2005/06 2004/05 2003/04 2002/03 2001/02 Total Imports 2000 0 0 2000/01 1000 MT Value (millions) $995.5 $809.3 $475.0 $245.8 $229.0 $146.3 $127.7 $127.6 $127.0 $110.2 Opportunity Outlook: Georgia Georgia exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in FY2014, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba totaled $300 million—representing 16% market share. However, one area where the U.S. has a dominant role is in the poultry market: in 2014, the U.S. exported $148 million in poultry meat to Cuba—comprising 77% of the market. Georgia is the top U.S. exporter of poultry, reaching almost $600 million in 2014. Approximately 10% of Cuba’s agricultural imports are poultry meat and poultry products. In spite of the embargo, Cuba is consistently a significant export market for U.S. poultry; in FY2014, Cuba was the 8th largest market for U.S. poultry exports. As the top exporter, Georgia stands to gain from the increasing trend in Cuba’s poultry imports and recapturing the market from Brazil. Soybeans and corn, some of Georgia’s top exports, will be increasingly important for Cuba’s agricultural imports as its livestock sector develops. In FY2014, 13% of Cuba’s agricultural imports were soybean products (meal plus soybean oil) and 11% corn. The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost soybean product market share to Argentina and Brazil. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, FY2014 Other 24% Georgia’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dairy Products 14% Wheat 13% Feed & Fodder 5% Soybean Oil 5% Soybean Meal 8% Corn 11% Poultry Rice 10% 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas Commodity Cotton Broiler Meat (Chicken) Other Oilseeds Other Plant Products Tree Nuts Other Poultry Products Processed Vegetables Soybeans Corn Dairy Products Value (millions) $688.6 $596.3 $517.8 $228.5 $142.1 $107.1 $89.5 $67.3 $67.1 $63.7 Source: USDA ERS Top U.S. Broiler Chicken Exporters in 2014 Cuba’s Broiler Meat Imports 600 250 500 200 1000 MT 300 200 150 100 50 Source: USDA ERS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2011 2012 2010 2009 2008 0 2007 Delaware 2006 Texas 2005 North Arkansas Mississippi Carolina 2004 Alabama 2003 Georgia 2002 0 2001 100 2000 Million $ 400 Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 5 Opportunity Outlook: Illinois Illinois exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in FY2014, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba totaled $300 million— representing only 16% market share. The U.S. share of total exports fell to 10% in FY2015. As the #3 exporter of U.S. agricultural products, Illinois stands to gain from a change in U.S. policy toward Cuba. Illinois is the top U.S. soybean exporter, nearing $3.4 billion in FY2014. Soybeans and soybean meal will be increasingly important for Cuba’s agricultural imports as its livestock sector develops in the longer term. Already, in FY2014, 13% of Cuba’s agricultural imports were soybean products (meal plus soybean oil). The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost soybean product market share to Argentina and Brazil. Corn, Illinois’s #2 export, presents significant export opportunity. Approximately 11% of Cuba’s agricultural imports are corn. The U.S. was Cuba’s largest corn supplier between 2002 and 2012, with U.S. market share up to 64% in FY2012. However, U.S. exports to Cuba have declined precipitously, outweighed by Argentina and Brazil. In FY2014, U.S. corn exports to Cuba were valued at $28 million, falling to $4.9 million in FY2015. Changes to U.S. policy on agricultural exports to Cuba would allow Illinois exporters to recapture lost market share. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, FY2014 Illinois’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dairy Products 14% Other 24% Wheat 13% Corn 11% Poultry Rice 10% 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas CA IA Source: USDA ERS IL MN NE TX IN OH Corn Total Imports Corn Imports from U.S. Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 6 2015/16 ND 2014/15 KS 0 2013/14 4.5 2012/13 4.5 2011/12 4.7 2010/11 5.7 2009/10 6.4 5 2008/09 7.3 2007/08 7.3 2006/07 9.3 10 2005/06 11.3 2004/05 15 2003/04 Billion USD 20 1000 MT Illinios Rankings for Agricultural Exports: Soybeans & Meal - #1 Corn - #1 Feed - #1 Pork - #4 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002/03 23.6 Cuban Corn Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 2001/02 Top U.S. Agricultural Exporters in 2014 25 Value (millions) $3,393.0 $1,709.5 $1,382.5 $780.4 $438.5 $433.0 $413.2 $292.9 $149.7 $71.1 Source: USDA ERS 2000/01 Feed & Fodder 5% Soybean Oil 5% Soybean Meal 8% Commodity Soybeans Corn Feeds & Feed Grains Soybean Meal Pork Vegetable Oils Processed Grains Other Plant Products Wheat Beef & Veal Opportunity Outlook: Iowa Iowa exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in 2015, U.S. agricultural exports totaled $149 million, a 48% drop from 2014. The U.S. share of total exports fell to less than 9% in 2015, down from 40% in 2009. As the #2 exporter of U.S. agricultural products, Iowa stands to gain from a change in U.S. policy toward Cuba. Iowa is a top U.S. exporter of soybeans, soybean meal, and feed grains, all of which will be increasingly important agricultural imports as Cuba’s livestock sector develops in the longer term. Already, in 2015, 12% of Cuba’s agricultural imports were soybean products. The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost soybean product market share to Argentina and Brazil. Opportunities for Iowa to export meat products like pork and beef to Cuba will increase as tourism and remittance growth are expected to fuel demand. Corn, Iowa’s #3 export, presents significant export opportunity. Approximately 9% of Cuba’s agricultural imports are corn. The U.S. was Cuba’s largest corn supplier between 2002 and 2012, with U.S. market share nearly 60% in 2012. However, U.S. corn exports to Cuba have declined precipitously, outweighed by Argentina and Brazil. Changes to U.S. policy on agricultural exports to Cuba would allow Iowa exporters to recapture lost market share. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, 2015 Iowa’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rice 14% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poultry Meat & Products 13% Feed & Fodder 4% Soybean Oil 4% Wheat 12% Dairy Products 12% 4.5 KS ND OH 0 CA IA Source: USDA ERS IL MN NE TX IN Corn Total Imports Corn Imports from U.S. Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 7 2015/16 4.5 2014/15 4.7 2013/14 5.7 5 2012/13 6.4 2011/12 7.3 2010/11 7.3 2009/10 9.3 10 2008/09 11.3 2007/08 15 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006/07 Billion USD 20 1000 MT Iowa Rankings for Agricultural Exports: Soybeans & Meal - #2 Corn - #2 Feed - #2 Pork - #1 Beef - #4 2005/06 23.6 Cuban Corn Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 2004/05 Top U.S. Agricultural Exporters in 2014 25 Value (millions) $3,088.6 $2,325.1 $1,662.1 $1,354.3 $710.4 $409.7 $394.5 $394.1 $377.1 $266.0 Source: USDA ERS 2003/04 Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System 2002/03 Corn 9% Commodity Soybeans Pork Corn Feeds & Feed Grains Soybean Meal Beef & Veal Processed Grains Vegetable Oils Hides & Skins Other Poultry Products 2001/02 Soybean Meal 8% 2000/01 Other 24% Opportunity Outlook: Indiana Indiana exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in 2015, U.S. agricultural exports totaled $149 million, a 48% drop from 2014. The U.S. share of total exports fell to less than 9% in 2015, down from 40% in 2009. As the #7 exporter of U.S. agricultural products, Indiana stands to gain from a change in U.S. policy toward Cuba. Indiana ranks as the 3rd largest U.S. soybean exporter, totaling more than $2 billion in 2014—35% of the state’s agricultural exports. Soybeans and soybean meal will be increasingly important for Cuba’s agricultural imports as its livestock sector develops in the longer term. Already, in 2015, 12% of Cuba’s agricultural imports were soybean products. The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost market share to Argentina and Brazil. Corn, Indiana’s #2 export, presents significant export opportunity as well. Approximately 9% of Cuba’s agricultural imports are corn. The U.S. was Cuba’s largest corn supplier between 2002 and 2012, with U.S. market share nearly 60% in 2012. However, U.S. corn exports to Cuba have declined precipitously, outweighed by Argentina and Brazil. Changes to U.S. policy on agricultural exports to Cuba would allow Indiana exporters to recapture lost market share. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, 2015 Indiana’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rice 14% Other 24% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poultry Meat & Products 13% Feed & Fodder 4% Soybean Oil 4% Wheat 12% Soybean Meal 8% Dairy Products 12% Corn 9% Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System Cuban Corn Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 23.6 TX IN ND OH Corn Total Imports Source: USDA ERS Corn Imports from U.S. Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 8 2015/16 NE 2014/15 MN 2013/14 IL 2012/13 IA 2011/12 CA 2010/11 KS 0 2009/10 4.5 2008/09 4.5 2007/08 4.7 2006/07 5.7 5 2005/06 6.4 2004/05 7.3 2003/04 7.3 2002/03 9.3 2001/02 11.3 10 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000/01 15 1000 MT Indiana Rankings for Agricultural Exports: Soybeans & Meal - #3 Corn - #5 Feed - #5 Pork - #5 20 Billion USD Value (millions) $2,009.8 $859.6 $702.3 $462.3 $340.0 $256.5 $211.0 $202.0 $189.7 $135.1 Source: USDA ERS Top U.S. Agricultural Exporters in 2014 25 Commodity Soybeans Corn Feeds & Feed Grains Soybean Meal Pork Vegetable Oils Processed Grains Other Plant Products Other Poultry Products Dairy Products Opportunity Outlook: Kansas Kansas exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to offer credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Kansas is the #2 exporter of U.S. wheat. Wheat is Kansas’s primary agricultural export, accounting for 21% of the state total in 2014 at nearly $990 million. In FY2014, of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports, 13% was wheat. Prior to the U.S. embargo on Cuba, wheat was one of the top four agricultural exports from the U.S. to Cuba. The U.S. had 43% market share in FY2009 but has not shipped wheat to Cuba since FY2011. The U.S. has been supplanted by other suppliers, namely the EU and Canada. Changes to U.S. policies would allow Kansas wheat exporters to recapture lost market share. Soybeans, feed grains, and corn—Kansas’s #3, #5, and #6 exports, respectively—will be increasingly important as Cuba’s livestock sector develops in the longer term. Already, 13% of Cuba’s agricultural imports are soybean products (meal plus soybean oil), 11% corn, and 5% feed. Like with wheat, the U.S. used to be a major supplier of soybeans and corn, but has lost market share to Argentina and Brazil. Significant opportunities also exist for Kansas to export meat products to Cuba as tourism and remittance growth are expected to fuel demand. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, FY2014 Kansas’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dairy Products 14% Other 24% Wheat 13% Feed & Fodder 5% Soybean Oil 5% Soybean Meal 8% Corn 11% Poultry Rice 10% 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas Commodity Wheat Beef & Veal Soybeans Other oilseeds Feeds & Feed Grains Corn Hides & Skins Processed Grain Pork Soybean Meal Value (millions) $988.8 $787.8 $556.8 $519.9 $432.9 $361.1 $260.7 $196.5 $127.0 $110.2 Source: USDA ERS Top U.S. Agricultural Exporters Cuban Wheat Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 1200 Kansas Rankings for Agricultural Exports: Wheat - #2 Beef & Veal - #3 Corn - #9 15.0 11.3 600 400 9.3 CA IA IL Source: USDA ERS MN NE TX IN Wheat Total Imports 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 2012/13 OH 2011/12 ND 0.0 2010/11 KS 0 2009/10 4.5 2008/09 4.5 2000/01 5.0 200 4.7 2007/08 5.7 2006/07 6.4 2005/06 7.3 2004/05 7.3 2003/04 10.0 800 2002/03 Billion USD 20.0 1000 2001/02 23.6 1000 MT 25.0 Wheat Imports from U.S. Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 9 Opportunity Outlook: Louisiana Louisiana exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade. Louisiana’s top agricultural exports include soybeans and rice, accounting for nearly $500 million and $260 million, respectively, in export value in 2014. Poultry was the 4th most valuable export in 2013. All are major import products for Cuba. Soybeans, Louisiana’s top export, will be increasingly important as Cuba’s livestock sector develops in the longer term. Already, of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports, 13% are soybean products (meal plus soybean oil). The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost soybean product market share to Argentina and Brazil, which could be recaptured. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, FY2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dairy Products 14% Other 24% Feed & Fodder 5% Soybean Oil 5% Soybean Meal 8% Louisiana’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Wheat 13% Corn 11% Poultry Rice 10% 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas Commodity Soybeans Other Plant Products Rice Other Livestock Soybean Meal Cotton Corn Feeds & Feed Grains Broiler Meat Vegetable Oils Value (millions) $499.4 $314.7 $258.9 $142.1 $114.9 $100.9 $92.7 $85.7 $71.1 $63.7 Source: USDA ERS Louisiana ranks 3rd in U.S. state rice exports. Cuba has the highest per capita rice consumption of any country in the Western Hemisphere: about 177lbs per person, compared to 26lbs in the U.S. Prior to the embargo, Cuba was typically the largest market for U.S. long-grain rice exports. As recently as FY2008, Cuba was an important export market for U.S. rice, and held nearly 40% of market share in FY2004. Market share has been lost to Vietnam and Brazil, who offer credit to Cuban importers. Louisiana stands to gain even more from increased exports to Cuba on account of its port system: the Port of New Orleans is about two sailing days away from Havana’s Port of Mariel, compared with more than 30 days for the Vietnamese port of Ho Chi Minh City. Top U.S. Rice Exporters in 2014 Cuban Rice Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 900 800 1000 MT 800 700 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 2014/15 2012/13 Imports from U.S. 2013/14 2011/12 2010/11 2009/10 2008/09 10 Total Imports 2007/08 *Updated as of May 10, 2016 2006/07 2005/06 2004/05 Mississippi 2003/04 Texas 2002/03 Arkansas California Louisiana Missouri Source: USDA ERS 2001/02 0 0 2000/01 Million $ 600 700 Opportunity Outlook: Minnesota Minnesota exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in FY2014, U.S. represented only 16% market share. As a top agricultural exporter, Minnesota stands to gain from a change in U.S. policy toward Cuba. Minnesota ranks 4th in the U.S. in terms of agricultural exports, with soybeans and corn accounting for nearly 40% of the state’s total export value. Minnesota’s soy exports reached more than $1.9 billion in 2014. Soybeans and soybean meal, Minnesota’s #1 and #6 top exports, respectively, will be increasingly important for Cuba’s agricultural imports as its livestock sector develops in the longer term. Already, in FY2014, 13% of Cuba’s agricultural imports were soybean products (meal plus soybean oil). The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost soybean product market share to Argentina and Brazil. Corn, Minnesota’s #2 export, presents significant export opportunity. Approximately 11% of Cuba’s agricultural imports are corn. The U.S. was Cuba’s largest corn supplier between 2002 and 2012, with U.S. market share up to 64% in FY2012. However, U.S. exports to Cuba have declined precipitously, outweighed by Argentina and Brazil. In FY2014, U.S. corn exports to Cuba were valued at $28 million, falling to $4.9 million in FY2015. Significant opportunities also exist for Minnesota to export meat and dairy products to Cuba as tourism and remittance growth are expected to fuel demand. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, FY2014 Minnesota’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dairy Products 14% Other 24% Wheat 13% Corn 11% Poultry Rice 10% 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas CA IA IL MN NE TX IN OH Corn Total Imports Corn Imports from U.S. *Updated as of May 10, 2016 Source: USDA ERS Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database 11 2015/16 ND 2014/15 KS 0 2013/14 4.5 2012/13 4.5 2011/12 4.7 2010/11 5.7 5 2009/10 6.4 2008/09 7.3 2007/08 7.3 2006/07 9.3 2005/06 11.3 10 2004/05 15 2003/04 Billion USD 20 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002/03 Minnesota Rankings for Agricultural Exports: Pork- #2 Corn - #4 Soybeans & Meal - #4 Dairy- #8 2001/02 23.6 Cuban Corn Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 1000 MT Top U.S. Agricultural Exporters in 2014 25 Value (millions) $1,950.2 $938.9 $797.7 $781.4 $543.1 $448.6 $321.9 $264.9 $250.6 $246.6 Source: USDA ERS 2000/01 Feed & Fodder 5% Soybean Oil 5% Soybean Meal 8% Commodity Soybeans Corn Pork Feeds & Feed Grains Other Plant Products Soybean Meal Dairy Products Wheat Vegetable Oils Processed Grains Opportunity Outlook: Mississippi Mississippi exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in 2015, U.S. agricultural exports totaled $149 million, a 48% drop from 2014. The U.S. share of total exports fell to less than 9% in 2015, down from 40% in 2009. Mississippi is the #5 U.S. exporter of poultry, reaching over $730 million in 2014. In 2015, Cuba was the 9th largest market for U.S. poultry exports, as the U.S. exported $78 million in poultry meat to Cuba—comprising 36% of the market. This represents a significant loss in market share to Brazil, as the U.S. had held an average of 75% poultry market share in Cuba over the last decade. As a top exporter, Mississippi stands to gain from the increasing trend in Cuba’s poultry imports and recapturing the market from Brazil. Mississippi is also the #6 U.S. exporter of rice. Cuba has the highest per capita rice consumption of any country in the Western Hemisphere: about 177lbs per person, compared to 26lbs in the U.S. As recently as 2008, Cuba was an important export market for U.S. rice, but market share has been lost to Vietnam and Brazil, who offer credit to Cuban importers. Some of Mississippi’s other top exports like soybeans, soybean meal, and corn will be increasingly important for Cuba as its livestock sector develops. In 2015, 12% of Cuba’s agricultural imports were soybean products (meal plus soybean oil) and 9% corn. The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost soybean product market share to Argentina and Brazil. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, 2015 Mississippi’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rice 14% Other 24% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poultry Meat & Products 13% Feed & Fodder 4% Soybean Oil 4% Soybean Meal 8% Wheat 12% Corn 9% Dairy Products 12% Source: Global Trade Atlas Commodity Soybeans Broiler Meat (Chicken) Cotton Soybean Meal Corn Other Livestock Products Feeds & Feed Grains Vegetable Oils Rice Wheat Value (millions) $733.5 $356.2 $300.6 $168.7 $116.6 $108.1 $102.9 $95.4 $92.4 $62.1 Source: USDA ERS Top U.S. Broiler Chicken Exporters in 2014 Cuba’s Broiler Meat Imports 600 250 500 200 1000 MT 300 200 150 100 50 Source: USDA ERS 2016 2015 2014 2013 2011 2012 2010 2009 2008 0 2007 Delaware 2006 Texas 2005 North Arkansas Mississippi Carolina 2004 Alabama 2003 Georgia 2002 0 2001 100 2000 Million $ 400 Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 12 Opportunity Outlook: Missouri Missouri exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in 2015, U.S. agricultural exports totaled $149 million, a 48% drop from 2014. The U.S. share of total exports fell to less than 9% in 2015, down from 40% in 2009. Soybeans, Missouri’s top export at over $1.5 billion in 2014—35% of the state’s agricultural exports—will be increasingly important as Cuba’s livestock sector develops in the longer term. Already, of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports, 12% are soybean products (meal plus soybean oil). The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost soybean product market share to Argentina and Brazil. Missouri ranks 4th in U.S. state rice exports and 8th for corn exports. Cuba has the highest per capita rice consumption of any country in the Western Hemisphere: about 177lbs per person, compared to 26lbs in the U.S. As recently as 2008, Cuba was an important export market for U.S. rice, but market share has been lost to Vietnam and Brazil, who offer credit to Cuban importers. Corn, Missouri’s #2 export, presents significant export opportunity as well. The U.S. was Cuba’s largest corn supplier between 2002 and 2012, but U.S. exports to Cuba have declined precipitously, outweighed by Argentina and Brazil. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, 2015 Missouri’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Rice 14% Other 24% Poultry Meat & Products 13% Feed & Fodder 4% Soybean Oil 4% Soybean Meal 8% Wheat 12% Corn 9% Dairy Products 12% Source: FAS Global Agricultural Trade System Value (millions) $1,518.7 $371.2 $349.3 $330.7 $311.5 $193.8 $179.8 $158.3 $151.4 $150.5 Source: USDA ERS Top U.S. Rice Exporters in 2014 Cuban Rice Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 900 13 Imports from U.S. Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database 2014/15 *Updated as of May 10, 2016 Total Imports Source: USDA ERS 2013/14 2012/13 Mississippi 2011/12 Texas 2010/11 Arkansas California Louisiana Missouri 2009/10 0 0 2008/09 100 100 2007/08 200 200 2006/07 300 300 2005/06 400 2004/05 400 2000/01 500 500 2003/04 600 600 2002/03 700 700 2001/02 1000 MT 800 800 Million $ Commodity Soybeans Corn Soybean Meal Feeds & Feed Grains Pork Vegetable Oils Beef & Veal Other Plant Products Cotton Wheat Opportunity Outlook: Nebraska Nebraska exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in FY2014, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba totaled $300 million—representing only 16% market share. The U.S. share of exports fell to 10% in FY2015. As the #3 U.S. exporter of corn, Nebraska stands to gain from a change in U.S. policy toward Cuba. Nebraska’s corn exports reached more than $1.2 billion in 2014. Approximately 11% of Cuba’s agricultural imports are corn. The U.S. was Cuba’s largest corn supplier between 2002 and 2012, with U.S. market share up to 64% in FY2012. However, U.S. exports to Cuba have declined precipitously, outweighed by Argentina and Brazil. In FY2014, U.S. corn exports to Cuba were valued at $28 million but fell to $4.9 million in FY2015. Soybeans and soybean meal, Nebraska’s #1 and #5 top exports, respectively, will be increasingly important for Cuba’s agricultural imports as its livestock sector develops in the longer term. In FY2014, 13% of Cuba’s agricultural imports were soybean products (meal plus soybean oil). As with corn, the U.S. has lost soybean product market share to Brazil and Argentina, who are able to offer credit to Cuba. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, FY2014 Nebraska’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dairy Products 14% Other 24% Wheat 13% Corn 11% Poultry Rice 10% 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas CA IA IL Source: USDA ERS MN NE TX IN OH Corn Total Imports Corn Imports from U.S. Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 14 2015/16 ND 2014/15 KS 0 2013/14 4.5 2012/13 4.5 2011/12 4.7 2010/11 5.7 2009/10 6.4 5 2008/09 7.3 2007/08 7.3 2006/07 9.3 2005/06 11.3 10 2004/05 15 2000/01 Billion USD 20 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2003/04 Nebraska Rankings for Agricultural Exports: Beef & Veal - #1 Corn - #3 Feed - #3 Soybeans & Meal - #5 2002/03 23.6 Cuban Corn Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 1000 MT Top U.S. Agricultural Exporters in 2014 25 Value (millions) $1,728.6 $1,212.4 $1,128.7 $1,007.7 $397.6 $377.2 $310.5 $260.2 $239.2 $221.3 Source: USDA ERS 2001/02 Feed & Fodder 5% Soybean Oil 5% Soybean Meal 8% Commodity Soybeans Corn Beef & Veal Feeds & Feed Grains Soybean Meal Hides & Skins Processed Grains Pork Wheat Vegetable Oils Opportunity Outlook: North Dakota North Dakota exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in 2015, U.S. agricultural exports totaled $149 million, a 48% drop from 2014. The U.S. share of total exports fell to less than 9% in 2015, down from 40% in 2009. North Dakota is the #1 exporter of U.S. wheat as of 2014. Wheat is North Dakota’s primary agricultural export, accounting for 26% of the state total in 2014 at over $1.1 billion. In 2015, of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports, 12% was wheat. Prior to the U.S. embargo on Cuba, wheat was a major U.S. agricultural export to Cuba. The U.S. had 43% market share in 2009 but has not shipped wheat to Cuba since 2011, having been surpassed by the EU and Canada. Changing U.S. policies would allow North Dakota exporters to recapture market share. Soybeans, feed grains, corn, and soybean meal—North Dakota’s #2, #4, #5 and #6 exports, respectively—will be increasingly important as Cuba’s livestock sector develops in the longer term. Already, 12% of Cuba’s agricultural imports are soybean products (meal plus soybean oil), 9% corn, and 4% feed. As with wheat, the U.S. used to be a major supplier of soybeans and corn, but has lost market share to Argentina and Brazil. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, 2015 North Dakota’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rice 14% Other 24% Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poultry Meat & Products 13% Feed & Fodder 4% Soybean Oil 4% Wheat 12% Soybean Meal 8% Dairy Products 12% Corn 9% Source: Global Trade Atlas Commodity Wheat Soybeans Other oilseeds Feeds & Feed Grains Corn Soybean Meal Vegetable Oils Other Plant Products Processed Grains Processed Vegetables Value (millions) $1,151.4 $1,070.3 $581.5 $258.4 $249.5 $246.2 $175.3 $172.4 $157.3 $129.0 Source: USDA ERS Top U.S. Agricultural Exporters Cuban Wheat Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 1200 23.6 1000 North Dakota Rankings for Agricultural Exports: Wheat - #1 Soybeans - #9 Soybean Meal - #9 15 11.3 800 600 400 9.3 200 CA IA Source: USDA ERS IL MN NE TX IN Wheat Total Imports 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 2012/13 OH 2011/12 ND 0 2010/11 KS 0 2009/10 4.5 2008/09 4.5 2007/08 4.7 2006/07 5 2005/06 5.7 2004/05 6.4 2003/04 7.3 2002/03 7.3 2001/02 10 2000/01 Billion USD 20 1000 MT 25 Wheat Imports from U.S. Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 15 Opportunity Outlook: Ohio Ohio exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in FY2014, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba totaled $300 million— representing only 16% market share. The U.S. share of total exports fell to 10% in FY2015. Ohio ranks 10th in the U.S. in terms of agricultural exports, with soybeans representing the state’s largest export product at 36%. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports, 13% are soybean products (soybean meal plus soybean oil). Soy products will be increasingly important for Cuba’s agricultural imports as its livestock sector develops in the longer term. In FY2014, 13% of Cuba’s agricultural imports were soybean products (meal plus soybean oil). The U.S. has lost soybean product market share to Brazil and Argentina, who offer credit to Cuba. Ohio’s second-largest agricultural export is corn. Approximately 11% of Cuba’s agricultural imports are corn. The U.S. was Cuba’s largest corn supplier between 2002 and 2012, with U.S. market share up to 64% in FY2012. However, as with soybeans and soybean products, U.S. exports to Cuba have declined precipitously, outweighed by Argentina and Brazil. In FY2014, U.S. corn exports to Cuba were valued at $28 million but fell to $4.9 million in FY2015. Ohio exports—especially soybeans, corn, dairy, and wheat—all stand to benefit from a change in U.S. policy. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, FY2014 Ohio’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dairy Products 14% Other 24% Wheat 13% Corn 11% Poultry Rice 10% 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas IA IL MN NE TX IN ND OH Corn Total Imports Source: USDA ERS Corn Imports from U.S. Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 16 2015/16 CA 2014/15 KS 0 2013/14 4.5 2012/13 4.5 2011/12 4.7 2010/11 5.7 2009/10 6.4 5 2008/09 7.3 2007/08 7.3 2006/07 9.3 10 2005/06 11.3 2004/05 15 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2003/04 Billion USD 20 1000 MT Ohio Rankings for Agricultural Exports: Soybeans & Meal - #6 Corn - #7 Feed - #8 2002/03 23.6 Cuban Corn Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 2001/02 Top U.S. Agricultural Exporters in 2014 25 Value (millions) $1,610.5 $465.9 $393.4 $370.4 $321.6 $206.2 $205.5 $191.2 $146.5 $138.7 Source: USDA ERS 2000/01 Feed & Fodder 5% Soybean Oil 5% Soybean Meal 8% Commodity Soybeans Corn Feeds & Feed Grains Soybean Meal Other plant products Pork Vegetable Oils Dairy Products Wheat Other poultry products Opportunity Outlook: Tennessee Tennessee exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth if changes in U.S. policies open opportunities for agricultural trade with Cuba and allow U.S. exporters to extend credit, export and technical assistance, and market development programs. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports in FY2014, U.S. agricultural exports to Cuba totaled $300 million— representing only 16% market share. The U.S. share of exports fell to 10% in FY2015. Tennessee’s top agricultural export is soybeans. Soybeans and soybean meal will be increasingly important for Cuba’s agricultural imports as its livestock sector develops in the longer term. Already, in FY2014, 13% of Cuba’s agricultural imports were soybean products (meal plus soybean oil). Tennessee’s #4 export, wheat, is a top Cuban import. The U.S. used to be a major supplier, but has lost soybean product market share to Argentina and Brazil and wheat market share to the EU and Canada. Tennessee exports to Cuba have mimicked those of the U.S. overall. Since 2009, Tennessee has not exported any bulk commodities to Cuba; current exports are predominantly frozen chicken leg quarters. In spite of the embargo, Cuba is a significant export market for U.S. poultry; in FY2015, Cuba was the 8th largest market for U.S. poultry exports. In FY2014, the U.S. exported $148 million in poultry meat to Cuba—comprising 77% of the market—but fell to 52% market share at $96 million in FY2015. Tennessee stands to gain from growth in Cuba’s poultry imports and recapturing market share. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports, FY2014 Tennessee’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dairy Products 14% Other 24% Wheat 13% Feed & Fodder 5% Soybean Oil 5% Soybean Meal 8% Corn 11% Poultry Rice 10% 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas Commodity Soybeans Other Plant Products Cotton Wheat Soybean Meal Feeds & Feed Grains Corn Broiler Meat Tobacco Beef & Veal Source: USDA ERS Cuba’s Wheat Imports: Lost Market Share Cuba’s Broiler Meat Imports 250 1200 1000 200 1000 MT 800 600 400 200 150 100 50 Source: USDA ERS Source: USDA FAS, PSD Database *Updated as of May 10, 2016 17 2016 2015 2014 2013 2011 2012 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2015/16 2014/15 2013/14 2011/12 2012/13 2010/11 2009/10 2008/09 Wheat Imports from U.S. 0 2000 Wheat Total Imports 2007/08 2006/07 2005/06 2004/05 2003/04 2002/03 2001/02 0 2000/01 1000 MT Value (millions) $468.1 $212.3 $144.7 $137.5 $107.7 $93.8 $93.6 $74.2 $73.1 $72.4 Opportunity Outlook: Texas Texas exports to Cuba have considerable room for growth. Texas ranks 6th in the U.S. in terms of agricultural exports, with beef and veal representing the largest edible export product, valued at nearly $1 billion in 2014. Texas agricultural exports line up with Cuba’s imports: with the exception of soybean products, all of Cuba’s major import products are also major agricultural export products for Texas. Changes to U.S. policy regarding Cuba would open opportunities for Texas exports. Of Cuba’s nearly $2 billion in agricultural imports, 14% are dairy products, 13% wheat, 11% corn, and 10% each for rice and poultry. In spite of the embargo, Cuba is consistently a significant export market for U.S. poultry; in FY2014, Cuba was the 8th largest market for U.S. poultry exports. As of now, Texas exports mostly frozen chicken (legs and thighs) and corn to Cuba. Significant opportunities exist for Texas to export meat products as tourism and remittance growth fuel demand, in addition to feeds and feed grains as Cuba’s livestock industry is expected to grow in the longer term. With policy changes, Texas exports could recapture some of the lost market share for dairy, wheat, corn, and rice. Prior to the embargo, Cuba was typically the largest market for U.S. long-grain rice exports. Texas ranks 5th in state rice exports, totaling $92.8 million in 2014. According to the International Trade Administration, Texas exported $131,327 in goods to Cuba in 2014, down from $96.2 million in 2008. Cuba’s Agricultural Imports FY2014 Texas’s Top Agricultural Exports, 2014 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Dairy Products 14% Other 24% Wheat 13% Feed & Fodder 5% Soybean Oil 5% Soybean Meal 8% Corn 11% Poultry Rice 10% 10% Source: Global Trade Atlas Cuban Rice Imports: Lost U.S. Market Share 800 1000 MT 23.6 Texas Rankings for Agricultural Exports: Rice - #5 Dairy - #6 Chicken - #6 Wheat - #7 20.0 Billion USD Value (millions) $1,375.5 $1,157.2 $966.9 $368.2 $363.9 $306.0 $280.5 $268.0 $248.4 $191.3 Source: USDA ERS Top U.S. Agricultural Exporters 15.0 600 500 400 11.3 300 9.3 10.0 700 7.3 7.3 6.4 200 5.7 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.5 100 IL Source: USDA ERS MN NE TX IN KS ND OH Total Imports Imports from U.S. Source: USDA ERS 2014/15 2013/14 2012/13 2009/10 2008/09 2007/08 18 2006/07 *Updated as of May 10, 2016 2005/06 2004/05 2011/12 IA 2010/11 CA 2003/04 0.0 2002/03 2000/01 0 2001/02 25.0 Commodity Cotton Other Plant Products Beef & Veal Feeds & Feed Grains Dairy Products Hides & Skins Broiler Meat Wheat Corn Other livestock
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