Ecological Modelling 193 (2006) 787–795 Birth functions in stage structured two-sex models Andreas Sundelöf ∗ , Per Åberg Department of Marine Ecology, Marine Botany, Göteborg University, P.O. Box 461, SE-405 30 Göteborg, Sweden Received 13 January 2005; received in revised form 8 July 2005; accepted 1 August 2005 Available online 24 October 2005 Abstract The most commonly used birth function in two-sex demographic models is the harmonic mean birth function. This function treats all individuals of one sex as identical, i.e., stage specific fecundity is not taken into account. In the analysis presented here, the harmonic mean birth function is developed to incorporate size and sex specific fecundities. This structured birth function is compared with the harmonic mean birth function using both a hypothetical population and data for populations of the limpet Patella vulgata. A general expression to calculate the threshold value where the unstructured and the structured birth functions coincide is also provided. Using the structured birth function resulted in changes in population dynamics, growth rate, proportion of males and reproductive output. In conclusion, the choice of birth function is important due to its effects on the deterministic population characteristics, which in turn may have consequences for the managements of endangered or vulnerable species. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Keywords: Two-sex model; Harmonic mean; Birth functions; Patella vulgata 1. Introduction Most demographic models are one-sex models where it is assumed that both sexes have identical vital rates or that the dynamics of the population are determined by only one sex (Caswell, 2001). However, there are many examples of sexual dimorphism in vital rates such as juvenile mortality (Clutton-Brock et al., 1985) and fecundity (Clutton-Brock, 1988), which indicate the need for two-sex models. Male or female domi∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +46 31 773 27 08; fax: +46 31 773 27 27. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (A. Sundelöf), [email protected] (P. Åberg). 0304-3800/$ – see front matter © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.08.040 nance may on the other hand be large so that there always are enough individuals of the subordinate sex and thus sexual dimorphism in survival rates will not influence the asymptotic population growth, although it will give rise to skewed sex ratios. There are populations where dominance is weak, i.e., where the abundance of both sexes is important for the reproductive output, e.g., polygamous populations. Several birth functions have been used in population modelling and the harmonic mean function is regarded the least flawed in human demography (Caswell, 2001). The fertility functions derived from the harmonic birth function are fixed clutch sizes times the proportion of males (for female fertility) or females (for male fertility) and the maximum per capita (p.c.) birth rate of the popula- 788 A. Sundelöf, P. Åberg / Ecological Modelling 193 (2006) 787–795 tion occur at the 1:1 sex ratio (cf., Caswell, 2001). The harmonic birth function has been applied in several non-human demographic studies (e.g., Lindström and Kokko, 1998; Ranta and Kaitala, 1999; Ranta et al., 1999; Engel et al., 2001) and has further been modified and applied in polygamous systems (Ranta and Kaitala, 1999), where the maximum reproduction of a population occurs at a skewed sex ratio. However, a limitation of the harmonic birth function is that the age or stage structure within each sex is ignored. Human demographers have developed age structured birth functions and one approach has been to use separate functions for male and female growth. The problem with these models has been that the separate sexes may develop different growth rates leading to extinction of the sex with the lowest growth rate (Martcheva, 1999). There are examples of age or stage structured birth functions that do not have this problem like the discrete Birth Matrix-Mating Rule model (BMMR; Pollak, 1986) and the continuous analogue of that (Martcheva, 1999), which can be applied to monogamous populations. Many marine organisms and wind pollinated terrestrial plants are polygamous in the sense that they release their gametes (or only male gametes) in the water column or in the air and as a result of mixing of gametes many pairs of parents are possible. Often these organisms also have indeterminate growth and size-dependent fecundity and it can be argued that large individuals with larger fecundity will have a larger clutch size than smaller individuals. However, fertilisation success will also depend on other factors such as the synchrony of the spawning event and the spatial distribution of individuals (Levitan et al., 1992; Yund, 2000). The birth functions mentioned above cannot directly be applied to spawning organism with size-dependent fecundity and in this paper we modify the harmonic birth function, so it can be applied to such organisms. The aim here is to describe a birth function for reproduction in demographically structured two-sex populations, compare this function with the harmonic birth function and illustrate its dynamics when applied in a matrix population model. It is common to include size specific fecundity or fertility in one-sex matrix population models (for examples, see Caswell, 2001). There are also examples of two-sex models where differential fertility between sexes and other stages are taken into account (Heide-Jorgensen et al., 1992). There are other models that include age structured fecundity, but in an implicit way (Pollard, 1997; Hsu Schmitz and Castillo-Chavez, 2000). However, in this paper, we develop and analyse a model that can be adopted to either size, age or sex structured populations, or any combination thereof. We compare it with the harmonic birth function as well as the harmonic function modified for a harem scenario and this has to our knowledge not been done before. The motivation for this work came from our attempt in developing a demographic model for the limpet Patella vulgata. This species is a sequential hermaphrodite, where all individuals are born as neuter, they nearly all mature as males and at an age of about three years they change sex and become females (Ballantine, 1961; Salerna de Mendonca Corte-Real, 1992). This free-spawning and sedentary species has indeterminate growth and size-dependent fecundity, and the modified birth function is expected to capture the main features of the reproduction in P. vulgata as well as other size and sex structured organisms. 2. Methods The basic harmonic birth function is given by Caswell (2001) to be: B(n) = 2knm nf nm + n f (1) where k is the clutch size and nm and nf are the densities of reproductive males and females, respectively. This model assumes monogamy and an equal clutch size of each male and female regardless of its size or other stage category. Both the model in Eq. (1) and the modified function described below has the important assumption that each offspring has one male and one female parent, thus the fertility functions become (cf., Caswell, 2001): for males: Fm (n) = knf nf + n m (2) and for females: Ff (n) = knm nf + n m (3) A. Sundelöf, P. Åberg / Ecological Modelling 193 (2006) 787–795 We modify the basic harmonic function by adding m and f stage classes to each sex, respectively, each with a stage specific clutch size, ki and kj , respectively. The resulting structured birth function written in vector format has the general expression: B(n) = 2 × km nm × kf nf km nm + kf nf (4) where km , kf are the row vectors of stage specific clutch sizes and nm and nf are the column vectors of the number of individuals in each stage class for males and females, respectively. Again from the assumption of one parent of each sex for each offspring the resulting fertility functions for each sex and stage class become: Fmi = kmi × kf nf km nm + kf nf (5) Ffj = kfj × km nm km nm + kf nf (6) where the notation is the same as in Eq. (4) except for i which indicates the specific class of males or females the fertility function belongs to. In the unstructured birth function (Eq. (1)), the clutch size is easily biologically interpreted and this clutch size times half the effective population size equals the reproductive output from that model. In the structured birth function, k is stage specific and can be viewed as the mean number of offspring of both sexes an individual in a given stage class can have. It can also be viewed as the effective number of gametes produced by an individual in a given stage class. Hence, since female and male gametes join to form zygotes, and subsequent larvae, Eqs. (4)–(6) must be divided by 2 in order to interpret B(n) as the effective number of produced larvae. Theper capita output from each function, i.e., B(n)/( nm + nf ) was used to compare the different models. In this manner, population size will not be a confounding agent in the comparisons between the two functions. To test the model with true values, two male and two female classes were used with the arbitrary possible sizes n = ]0 10[. A few different combinations of k-values were investigated to reveal different behaviours of the structured birth function depending on the relation between male and female fecundity. In the first case, km = [1 4] and kf = [1 4] for males and females, respectively. This corresponds to a uniform development of males and females and 789 where fecundity increases by size. In the second case, km = [4 7] and kf = [1 1]. This combination of clutch sizes exemplifies a situation where females are limiting, males have higher fecundity and male fecundity increases with size. This is qualitatively equivalent to the biology of P. vulgata, where males produce a larger number of gametes than females. In the third case, km and kf were as in case two but population size was constant while population structure varied. Finally, an idealized case of the sequential hermaphrodite P. vulgata was simulated, where sex- and size-dependent fecundity was contrasted with a situation, which was only sex-dependent. To fully analyse the structured birth function it was also subjected to a comparison with a harem model. To construct the simplest harem model the nf -term in the denominator of Eq. (1) is divided by a factor, h, which is the number of females in a harem. In the case of h > 1, the population is polygamous and for h < 1 the population is polyandrous (Caswell, 2001). A matrix population model based on field data for P. vulgata was used to investigate how the use of different birth functions may affect the dynamics of a population. Firstly, the unstructured birth function was used in the matrix model, implying equal fecundity for both sexes and individuals of all sizes. Secondly, the structured birth function was used assuming a reproductive system with both size- and sex-dependent fecundity. The matrix population model had four fertile stage classes, small and large males and small and large females. Due to the sex change and that nearly all individuals start as males, males are on average smaller than females. However, the sizes of the different sexes do overlap since the sex change is gradual through a cohort spanning 3–6 years (Ballantine, 1961). The model was parameterised with data for P. vulgata from two locations in Ireland and two locations on the Isle of Man (Sundelöf, Jenkins, Delany, Hawkins and Åberg, unpublished data). Tagged individuals were followed for 1 year and from these data size specific survival rates and growth curves of individuals were calculated for each population and further used to calculate transition probabilities between stage classes. Growth curves were also used to calculate the size at sex change (Ballantine, 1961) and clutch sizes. Female clutch sizes (k-values) were calculated from the number of recruits in each population and scaled to each size and sex class by its specific volume. However, male fecundity was 790 A. Sundelöf, P. Åberg / Ecological Modelling 193 (2006) 787–795 treated as limiting only in extreme circumstances and the male clutch sizes (k-values) are set to 108 and 109 , respectively, for small and large males (S.J. Hawkins, personal communication). The matrix model is closed (only local reproduction and recruitment) and deterministic and these somewhat unrealistic but simplifying properties were chosen to accentuate the effect of population structure on deterministic dynamics. Consequently, the P. vulgata example should thus be seen as an application of the structured two-sex model to real data and not as a good model of the true dynamics of these P. vulgata populations. The asymptotic population growth rate (λ), sex ratio (proportion male) and the elasticities of population growth rate to changes in the projection matrix were calculated for the two birth functions in each population and were the population variables used to compare the outcome of the two birth functions. The elasticity is a measure of the proportional change in λ of a potential proportional disturbance in the matrix element aij (Caswell, 2001). To visualize potential differences the elasticity values were summed over specific matrix regions (1) elasticity of λ when elements of individual growth were perturbed (G) (2) elasticity of λ when stasis elements were perturbed (L, loops in the life cycle) (3) elasticity of λ when fertility elements were perturbed (F). The summed values were then used in a triangular ordination (for method, see Silvertown et al., 1996). 3. Results The harmonic birth function given by Eq. (1) has two dependencies, population density and the sex ratio, i.e., the proportion of one of the sexes (the p.c. case is shown in Eq. (10) below). Following our reasoning of size-dependent fecundity and the resulting differential clutch sizes, the modified harmonic birth function becomes dependent on the population structure, as well as on the sex ratio and population size (Eq. (4)). Fig. 1A shows the p.c. birth function for different population structures and sizes, plotted over the resulting proportion of males. In the birth function for Fig. 1A, k-values are such that larger (older) individuals have larger fecundity but there is no difference between the sexes. Assuming that increasingly larger males have increasingly larger k-values and that females have lower fecundity than males, and do not experience size-dependent fecundity, and plotting the p.c. birth function for different structures and sizes, the proportion of males resulting in the maximum p.c. reproduction is skewed from 0.5 (Fig. 1B). Also, the different possible p.c. fertilities for a given proportion of males is due to the different population structures, which is shown in Fig. 1C, where the same kx -values are used but now plotted for a fixed population size (N = 40). The only characteristic producing variation in p.c. births for a given proportion of males in Fig. 1C is the population structure. The resulting variation in p.c. reproductive output is up to 30% for this particular mode of reproduction. 3.1. Model comparisons By ignoring population structure, the unstructured birth function may either overestimate or underestimate reproductive output compared to a structured birth function. In Fig. 1D, the p.c. reproduction is plotted for an unstructured model, the harem model and the structured model. From Fig. 1D, it is clear that for different proportion males in the population the different models give different predictions of reproductive output. Setting the structured birth function equal to an unstructured birth function for a given set of clutch sizes solves for the sex ratio where the unstructured model changes from overestimating reproduction to underestimating it, compared to the structured birth function in Eq. (4). The top boundary of the p.c. graph of the birth function, Eq. (4), is given by the case when all individuals are in the largest class for the respective sex, and Eq. (4) thus reduces to scalars: 1 k m n m kf n f B(n) (7) = ntot (km nm + kf nf )(nm + nf ) or p m km k f n f 1 = (8) B(n) ntot k m nm + k f nf where ntot = nm + nf . The unstructured p.c. birth function in our case has the expression: B(n) knm nf 1 = ntot (nm + nf )2 which becomes: 1 = kpm (1 − pm ) B(n) ntot (9) (10) A. Sundelöf, P. Åberg / Ecological Modelling 193 (2006) 787–795 791 Fig. 1. (A) The per capita birth function for a set of two male and two female classes with a random population size between 0 and 10 in each size class. km = kf = [1 4] such that there is a size dependence on fecundity but no difference between sexes. (B) The per capita birth function for a set of two male and two female classes with a random population size between 0 and 10 in each size class. km = [4 7] and kf = [1 1] such that there is size- and sex-dependent fecundity. (C) The per capita birth function for a set of two male and two female classes with a random population size between 0 and 40 in each size class but fixed at a total of N = 40. km = [4 7] and kf = [1 1] such that there is size- and sex-dependent fecundity. For a given proportion of males the only variation in the model is the population structure. (D) Comparison between a structured and an unstructured birth function. The solid top curve shows the p.c. births for the unstructured harmonic birth function for a clutch size of 3.25 (k = 3.25). The scatter is the corresponding p.c. births for the structured harmonic birth function, where km = [4 7] and kf = [1 1]. The horizontal line shows the threshold value of proportion males at which the unstructured model (Eq. (9)) goes from underestimating to overestimating the structured birth function. Plotted in the middle of the scatter of the structured birth function is the corresponding “harem” model with km = 5.5 and kf = 1. where pm ≡ nm /(nm + nf ) and (1 − pm ) ≡ nf /(nm + nf ). The solution of the two birth functions, p∗m , is given by setting Eq. (8) equal to Eq. (10) and solving for pm giving two solutions of which p∗m = 1 is trivial but an intermediate solution is: p∗m = kf (k − km ) k(kf − km ) (11) If kf = km the equation does not have any solutions. This is rather trivial since the birth functions reduce to being the same. If, on the other hand, k = km the solutions are p∗m = 0 and 1. Also, if k = kf then p∗m = 1. For any other combination, there will be a solution between 0 and 1. There are several ways of calculating the threshold pm -value. It is important to sort out each sex’s contribution of gametes or clutch sizes before comparing the two birth functions since the p∗m -value will depend strongly on the k, km and kf . Eq. (11) states which part of the parameter space either of the functions will predict the larger value. The relation between p∗m and the effect on the dynamics is not straight forward since it will depend on several other variables (the skewness of the p.c. B-function, the variation around the mean and also how the sex ratio is changed deterministically in the populations). However, in general the effect on population dynamics will be greater the further p∗m is from 0.5. In Fig. 1D, k = 3.25, km = 7 and kf = 1, which means that the k in Eq. (10) is the mean clutch size of the whole population. Thus, k = (kf + km )/4. A. Sundelöf, P. Åberg / Ecological Modelling 193 (2006) 787–795 792 Table 1 Deterministic growth rate (λ), proportion male (pm ) and calculated threshold proportion of males (p∗m ) for four different populations of P. vulgata calculated using matrix population models with either an unstructured or a structured birth function Bullens Bay Garrettstown Port Saint Mary Derbyhaven λ unstructured λ structured pm unstructured pm structured p∗m 1.318 1.868 0.786 0.9 1.199 1.452 0.870 0.983 0.599 0.750 0.093 6.1E-05 0.535 0.663 0.220 0.188 0.3012 0.2599 0.0016 0.1041 For details see text. Observed mean proportion of males were in all populations around 0.5–0.6. 3.2. P. vulgata case study The population structures of P. vulgata found in the field samplings were all male dominated which is expected for a long-lived sequentially hermaphroditic organism. The estimated mortalities showed a dependence on size of the individual, where larger individuals had lower mortality. Growth rates of the populations in Garrettstown and Bullens Bay were more sensitive to changes in fertility and stasis when the structured birth function was used but for the populations in Port Saint Mary and Derbyhaven the response was the opposite (Fig. 2). For both birth functions, the population growth rate was larger than 1 in the two Irish populations but smaller than 1 in the two populations in the Isle of Man (Table 1). In all populations, the growth rate was closer to unity when the structured birth function was used. In all populations, a similar trend was seen for the proportion of males where it was closer to a 1:1 sex ratio in the case of the structured birth function (Table 1). Moreover, the calculated p∗m -values (Table 1) were smaller than the equilibrium proportion of males in the simulated populations. The only exception is in the case of the Derbyhaven population simulated with the unstructured birth function. The extremely small p∗m -value for PSM is an effect of the low recruitment rate, which is the only determinant of the unstructured birth function. The unstructured birth function will thus underestimate fertility drastically for all proportions of male down to 0.0016, compared to the structured birth function, and hence lead to a lower growth rate of this population. The p∗m for Derbyhaven falls between the equilibrium proportion of males for the unstructured and structured birth functions simulations. 4. Discussion Fig. 2. Elasticity of population growth rate summed over matrix regions of individual growth (G) stasis (L) and fertility (F). Two symbols represent each population, a filled symbol for the results with the structured birth function and an open symbol for the results with the unstructured birth function. (, ) Bullens Bay, (䊉, ) Garrettstown, (♦, ) Port Saint Mary, (, ) Derbyhaven. Note that the contribution of fertility to lambda in the Derbyhaven case with the unstructured birth function is zero. The equilibrium population structure of this population lacks males, and is totally dominated by survival of large females, hence the lack of contribution from reproduction. Surprisingly large changes to the deterministic dynamic characteristics of a closed population were found by replacing an unstructured birth function with a more realistic structured birth function. Although we have not fitted the structured model to time series data, the more realistic structured reproductive model demonstrates that the choice of birth functions has large effects on the intrinsic dynamics. The stable skewed sex ratios in the studied limpet populations are a result of the demographic rates and the fertility A. Sundelöf, P. Åberg / Ecological Modelling 193 (2006) 787–795 function resulting in a stable size structure. The structured birth function produced population growth rates and sex ratios, which were closer to unity than those produced by the unstructured model. Observed mean proportion of males are for all populations approximately 0.5–0.6. The results from the simulations of the different birth functions show that the structured birth function performs better than the unstructured one. The fact that proportions of males in the field are strictly larger than any of the calculated p∗m -values again suggests that the structured birth function is to prefer over the unstructured birth function for this species. Similarly, for every pair being compared (structured versus unstructured model), the elasticity of population growth rate to changes in stasis was higher in the population with the lower rate of population growth. The two populations in Isle of Man were dominated by large females and these populations expressed low growth rates which were sensitive to changes in stasis. As observed by Silvertown et al. (1996) to manage a rapidly declining trend in such a population the elasticity analysis alone is misleading since the need for recruitment is most likely greater than an increase in stasis. For a sequential hermaphrodite, this is even more crucial since new recruits will be of the opposite sex, thus constituting a prerequisite for reproduction. However, the main conclusion from the elasticity analysis is that the elasticity can change substantially depending on which birth function is used. Since elasticity analyses often are used as an aid in management of species the choice of birth function could thus have large effects on management plans. We show that the use of a structured birth function strongly influences the dynamics of populations and the elasticity of population characters. Current literature suggests that the common practice today to calculate production from populations in two-sex models is either dominance models or unstructured birth functions (Lindström and Kokko, 1998; Ranta and Kaitala, 1999; Ranta et al., 1999; Armsworth, 2001; Engel et al., 2001). The current work highlights the need for knowing whether an organism expresses size-dependent fecundity or not when using a two-sex model. A harem situation, for example, is mimicked in the structured birth function, although in a more general manner. In Fig. 1D, the line within the scatter is the p.c. births from the unstructured model, modified for the harem situation. Although the harem function could be viewed 793 as a good approximation for reproduction of a system like this, none of the variation in reproduction due to potential size-dependent fecundity in individuals is accounted for. This variation may be great and is dependent on the difference in clutch sizes between sizes and sexes. The greater the difference in clutch sizes, the greater the variation in calculated reproductive output depending on the population structure. If, for example, the clutch sizes differ as in the example in Fig. 1D (km = [4 7] and kf = [1 1]) the harem function will perform fairly well at high proportions of male. However, if proportion of males is low the harem function will be decent at best. Again, if the clutch sizes differ even more (for example, km = [2 9] and kf = [1 1]) the situation is even worse. We suggest a change of focus on the issue of production where size-dependent fecundity should be central. A structured birth function should be applied whenever a pronounced size-dependent fecundity is observed and the reproductive output of the population is of particular interest. Several studies have recently investigated the population dynamic properties of monogamous two-sex population models (Martcheva, 1999) and differences between monogamous and polygamous two-sex population models (Lindström and Kokko, 1998; Ranta and Kaitala, 1999; Ranta et al., 1999). Ranta and Kaitala (1999) conclude from a model using harmonic birth functions that polygamous and monogamous individuals can co-exist only if the polygamous individuals are less fecund or have lower survival than the monogamous individuals. The framework they use is an unstructured harmonic birth function where the clutch size of females is scaled for polygamy. Other studies confirm the differences in population dynamics between polygamous and monogamous models (e.g., Legendre et al., 1999). However, they all use unstructured birth functions, although many of the studies would be applicable to structured populations with size, age or sex specific life-history characters that potentially could change the outcome of the simulated models. In the structured harmonic birth function polygamy and monogamy turn up as special cases. Populations of organisms that express sizedependent fecundity have earlier been modelled mainly with one-sex models or unstructured two-sex models (Åberg, 1992; Lindström and Kokko, 1998; Ranta and Kaitala, 1999; Ranta et al., 1999; Engel et al., 2001). However, the fertility of individuals in populations of 794 A. Sundelöf, P. Åberg / Ecological Modelling 193 (2006) 787–795 organisms that express size-dependent fecundity (many aquatic and terrestrial invertebrates, aquatic algae and terrestrial plants) will evidently depend on population structure. Size-dependent fertility is often included in one-sex matrix models but under the assumption that one sex is limiting (e.g., Åberg, 1992). Reproductive output becomes increasingly more dependent on population structure the larger the difference in fecundity between sexes and sizes of individuals. Thus, the need for a structured birth function is greater for models of species expressing great sexual dimorphism and sizedependent fecundity. Studies of stage structured populations of species with complex life cycles, where fecundity is typically size-dependent (Engel et al., 2001), could gain from using a stage structured birth function. For many species it may, however, be difficult to get the data needed for a detailed demographic population model, but still one should be aware of the possibility of either under- or overestimating the total reproduction in a population when using an unstructured birth function compared to a structured one. The importance of modelling the correct birth function for a population may have important implications for conservation biology and formulation of population viability analysis (PVA) as stated by studies concerning mating systems other than stage structured systems (Legendre et al., 1999). The calculation of p∗m states at which point the unstructured birth function predicts lower number of p.c. births compared to the structured one. The calculation of p∗m also determines how skewed the birth function is without doing any of the numerical simulations. Thus, it may also help in evaluating past and present PVA’s. The model presented here is parameterised for P. vulgata and becomes specific to this particular lifehistory but it can easily be adapted to fit different life histories by changing primary sex ratio or size specific fecundity. It was not necessary to include the primary sex ratio in the present model since all recruits of P. vulgata are born neuter, turn male at about 1 year of age and at about three years of age individuals turn female (Ballantine, 1961). However, for other organisms where the sex determining system is known the primary sex ratios can typically be modelled by the random meeting of X and Y reproductive cells in zygote formation with the addition of a recruit mortality term. In earlier models of reproduction, the primary sex ratio has been assumed to be 1:1 or close to it (e.g., from observed primary sex ratios in human populations (Pollak, 1986; Martcheva, 1999). However, the modelling of primary sex ratios different from 1:1 can easily be incorporated as a constant, or function, into Eq. (7) and has no implications on the generality of the function described here. Acknowledgements We wish to thank Jane Delaney and Stuart Jenkins for providing us the field data. 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