1 The Four Horsemen of Terrorism – It’s not Waves, it’s Strains TomParker(BardGlobalizationandInternationalAffairsProgram,BardCollege, NewYork,USA) NickSitter(CentralEuropeanUniversityandBINorwegianBusinessSchool) TomParker,wasformerlyPolicyDirectorforTerrorism,Counter‐Terrorismand HumanRightsatAmnestyInternationalUSA,andAdviseronHumanRightsand Counter‐TerrorismtotheUnitedNationsCounter‐TerrorismImplementationTask Force(CTITF). Heiscurrentlyworkingonabookexamininghumanrights‐ compliantcounter‐terrorismstrategies,entitledWhyRightisMight,forImperial CollegePress. NickSitterisProfessorofPublicPolicyandCentralEuropeanUniversity(Schoolof PublicPolicy)andProfessorofPoliticalEconomyatBINorwegianBusinessSchool (DepartmentofLaw). TheauthorsgratefullyacknowledgethesupportoftheEUFP7large‐scaleintegrated researchprojectGR:EENGlobalRe‐ordering:EvolutionthroughEuropean Networks,EuropeanCommissionProjectNumber:266809 ThisisanAcceptedManuscriptversionofanarticlepublishedbyTaylor&Francis inTerrorismandPoliticalViolence,availableonline: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09546553.2015.1112277 2 The Four Horsemen of Terrorism – It’s not Waves, it’s Strains DavidRapoport’sconceptoffourwavesofterrorism,fromanarchistterrorism in the 1880s, through nationalist and Marxist waves in the early and mid‐ TwentiethCentury,tothepresentreligiouswave,isoneofthemostinfluential conceptsinterrorismstudies.However,thisarticlearguesthatthinkingabout differenttypesofterrorismasstrainsratherthanwavesbetterreflectsboth theempiricalrealityandtheideathatterroristslearnfromandemulateeach other. Whereas the notion of waves suggests distinct iterations of terrorist violencedrivenbysuccessivebroadhistoricaltrends,theconceptofstrains andcontagionemphasizeshowterroristgroupsdrawonbothcontemporary andhistoricallessonsinthedevelopmentoftheirtactics,strategies,andgoals. The authors identify four distinct strains in total – socialist, nationalist, religious,andexclusionist‐andcontendthatitispossibletotraceeachstrain backtoa‘patientzero’activeinthe1850s. AfterAlQaeda’sattacksontheWorldTradeCenterandthePentagononSeptember 11th,2001,DavidRapoportpublishedoneofthemostinfluentialarticleseverwritten in the field of terrorism studies. 1 The article has since been republished and referenced in numerous volumes. 2 To this day, it provides the basic conceptual framework for many academic courses taught around the world on this subject. Rapoport’spremisewascleanandsimple:muchasSamuelHuntingtonarguedthat democratizationcameinwaves,3Rapoportidentifiedfourbroadlyconsecutivewaves of terrorism. The first – which he dubbed the anarchist wave ‐ started with the Russian populist group Narodnaya Volya (the People’s Will) in the 1880s and continuedintotheearlydecadesofthetwentiethcentury.Itwasfollowedbyananti‐ colonialwavefromthe1920stothe1960s,aNewLeftwavefromthe1960stothe endoftheTwentiethCentury,andareligiouswavebeginningin1979thatisstillwith ustoday.4Rapoportusedthiswavetheorytopredictthatthereligiouswave,which hadgivenbirthtoAlQaedaandtheso‐calledIslamicState,coulddissipateby2025 andthatanewwavemightthenemerge.5 3 InfairnesstoRapoport,henotedthattherewereothergroups,forexampletheKu KluxKlanbetween1865and1876,whichemployedterroristviolenceandyetdidnot fit neatly into his template. However, he essentially dismissed such examples as statistical outliers that had little impact of the development of terrorism as a phenomenonovertime.6Healsoobservedthatsomegroupswithineachwavehad non‐dominant characteristics in common with groups in the other waves. For example, the Provisional IRA of the 1970s and 1980s was both nationalist and Marxist.ButthedeeperoneexploresRapoport’stheory,themoredifficultitbecomes toescapethesuspicionthathetooktheanalogyofthewavetoofar.Hedescribeseach wave as having an international character “driven by a predominant energy that shapes the participating groups’ characteristics and mutual relationships.” 7 This resultsin“acycleofactivityinagiventimeperiod…characterizedbyexpansionand contraction phases.” 8 But is this really what happens? We find particularly problematic Rapoport’s assertion that “when a wave’s energy cannot inspire new organizations, the wave disappears”. 9 Indeed, there is very little evidence that the activitiesassociatedwithanyofhisfourwaveshaveactuallydisappeared,andthere isagreatdealofevidencetosuggestthateachtypeofterrorismhasdeeperhistorical rootsthanhiswavetheorysuggests. Itisourcontentionthatthestrategicandtacticalchoicesterroristorganizationsmake play an important role in the evolution of terrorism. Even isolated outbreaks of terroristviolencecaninfluencethechoicesmadebylaterterroristgroups.Tobesure, like other political organizations, terrorists learn first and foremost from their immediaterivalsandotherlikemindedgroups.10However,thereisalsoconsiderable evidenceofconsistentanddynamicexchangeofideasbetweenterroristgroupsof markedly different character that stretches back several decades further than Rapoportsuggests,tothemiddleoftheNineteenthCentury.WhileRapoport’stheory providesasimpleandconceptuallycleannarrativetohelpstudentsandresearchers alike to organize their thoughts, there are simply too many anomalies. More significantly,someoftheseoutlyingcaseshavebeenveryinfluentialinthesensethat theyprovidedimportantlessonsorinspirationforlaterterroristgroups(including 4 themaingroupsineachofRapoport’swaves)andthusplayedanintegralroleinthe evolutionofterrorismoverthepast150years. Wethereforeproposeanalternativeframeworkforanalysis,basedontheideathat terrorismcomesinfourdifferentstrainsandthatthereisanimportantelementof “contagion”bothwithinandbetweentheseseparatestrains.Webelievethatitmay evenbepossibletoidentifya‘patientzero’foreachstrain–anindividualwhoeither through advocacy or example first promoted the innovative adoption of terrorist methodstoadvanceaparticularpoliticalcause.Theconceptoffourstrainsfitsthe historical record better, and more plausibly explains how terrorism spreads and evolvesfromoneconflicttothenext. Thefourstrainswehaveidentifiedalldatefromthesameperiod,andalthoughthey havemostlydevelopedseparatelysince,theydooccasionallycombineandmutate. Thesefourstrains–thesefourhorsemenofterrorism–arenationalism,socialism, religiousextremismandsocialexclusion.UsingBoazGanor’sdefinitionofterrorism‐ “theintentionaluseoforthreattouseviolenceagainstciviliansoragainstcivilian targets, in order to attain political aims” ‐ as our criteria, we have compared both theoriesagainstthehistoricalrecordtodeterminewhichultimatelyoffersthegreater theoreticalleverageoverrecordedevents. TerroristGroupsasLearningOrganizations Thereisarichsociologicalliteratureonhowandunderwhatcontextorganizations learnfromtheirpeersandrivals,associatedwithscholarssuchasBarbaraLevittand James G. March. 11 Non‐state organizations learn both from direct experience and from the stories they develop to make sense of that experience, as well as from experiences and stories generated by peers. Organizations that interact regularly with directcompetitors learn from both their own and their rivals’ successes. The fieldsofanthropology andcommunicationstudieshavegeneratedsimilartheories 5 about the contagiousness of ideas to explain the diffusion of innovative practices across societies.12Analyzing how West European conservative parties had learned fromthesuccessfulpost‐warinitiativesofSocialDemocratstorevitalizetheirown electoral programs, party organizations and electoral strategy, Maurice Duverger labeledthis“contagionfromtheleft”.13Afewdecadeslater,itwouldbethecentre‐ leftpartiesthat“modernized”throughaprocessof“contagionfromtheright”.14 TheGermanterrorismexpertPeterWaldmannwasoneofthefirsttoreferencethis kindof“contagioneffect”forterroristgroups,arguingthattheapparentsuccessof somegroupsattractedotherstoemulateaspectsoftheirapproach,andperhapsalso theirideology.15Indeed,severalearlymodernterroristsactuallyexpressedthehope thattheywouldsetanexampleforotherstoemulate.AstheRussianpopulistNikolai MorozovobservedinTheTerroristStruggle:“Whenahandfulofpeopleappearsto representthestruggleofawholenationandistriumphantovermillionsofenemies, thentheideaofterroristicstrugglewillnotdieonceitisclarifiedforthepeopleand provenitcanbepractical.”16Propagandabythedeed–theverynotionthatactsof terrorismwouldbeabetterwaytospreadideasthanmerewrittenpropaganda–was basedonthehopethatterrorismwouldproveacontagiousidea.17 The main causal mechanism in Rapoport’s work, as in Huntington’s, is historical context. The first, anarchist, wave emerged with new technological developments thatmadetravelandcommunicationeasier,andinturnmadeiteasierforideasand doctrines to be transmitted across boundaries. In Rapoport’s words: “A wave by definition is a historical event”, sparked or shaped by international wars or peace agreements. 18 Huntington was more explicit about the causes for waves of democratization: global economic growth, economic and military failure in dictatorships,changesinthepoliciesofexternalactors(suchasthesuperpowers), anda“snowballingeffect”whereearlyeventsprovidedmodelsandinspirationfor latereventsinthesamewave.19Inbothcasesradicalmovementsandorganizations learnfromtheircontemporaries,butthespreadofbothideologyandtacticsislimited to a given time and space. A simple extension of this idea is that each wave of 6 terrorismischaracterizedbyacommonnarrativeabouttheenemy–authoritarian monarchies, empires, capitalist democracies and secular states – and a common internationallegalandpoliticalregime–theconcertofEurope,theageofempire,the ColdWar,andthepost‐coldwar“globalization”era.Indeed,thewavemetaphorcan evenbeextendedtocounter‐terrorismstrategies.20 Thecentralpointaboutcontagionororganizationallearningisthatitassignsmore weighttotheactiverolethatterroristsandtheirorganizationsplayintheprocess whereby ideas and practices “travel” across boundaries: much like Huntington’s dictators, terrorist groups sometimes cooperate with each other, and much more frequently learn from or imitate each other. The sociologists Paul DiMaggio and WalterPowellexaminedaseriesofwaysorganizationscancometoresembleeach other (the process of isomorphism), including responding to similar conditions, learning from and imitating each other, and interacting with each other and establishing common norms. 21 Although terrorist organizations are usually autonomousandisolated(evenmoresothandictators),andthereforelesssubjectto pressurefromsocietyandcompetitorsthanmanyotherorganizations,itisclearthat learning and copying has been an important factor in shaping similarities across organizationsbothintermsofstrategyandtactics. Thereisagreatdealofqualitativeevidenceinthehistoricalrecordofthediffusionor transferofideasbetweendifferentterroristandinsurgentactors,oftenacrosswide temporal and geographic distances. For example, the Irish revolutionary Michael Collins, who is often seen as one of the key architects of modern urban terrorism although he personally eschewed acts of indiscriminative violence, 22 wrote an appreciativelettertotheBoercommanderChristiaandeWetthankinghimforbeing his “earliest inspiration”. 23 Collins also spoke of his admiration for the Finnish nationalist Eugen Schauman who assassinated the Russian Governor General of Finland, Nicholai Bobrikov, in 1904. 24 We also know from the Irish nationalist O’DonovanRossa’sprivatecorrespondencethathewaswellawareoftheattemptby NarodnayaVolyatoassassinateTsarAlexanderIIbybombingtheWinterPalacein 7 February 1880. 25 President McKinley’s assassin, Leon Czolgosz, slept with a newspapercuttingabouttheassassinationofKingUmbertoofItalyunderhispillow, and even purchased the same model of Iver Johnson .32 revolver used by the anarchistGaetanoBrescifortheassassination.26TheMarxistWeatherUnderground Organization, which operated in the United States from 1969 to 1973, publicly declaredthedebtitowedtocomradeselsewhere:“Nowweareadaptingtheclassic guerrillastrategyoftheVietCongandtheurbanguerrillastrategyoftheTupamaros toourownsituationhereinthemosttechnicallyadvancedcountryintheworld.”27 TheGermanMarxistHorstMahlerchosethenameRoteArmeeFraktioninconscious homage to the Japanese Red Army (Rengo Sekigun). 28 Dimitris Koufodinas, OperationsChiefoftheGreekterrorgroupNovember17,taughthimselfSpanishin hisprisoncellsohecouldtranslatetheprisonmemoirsoftwoTupamarosleaders, MauricioRosencofandEleuterioFernándezHuidobro.29Cuttingdeeplyacrosstime, Eldridge Cleaver, one of the leaders of the Black Panther Party in the late 1960s, adoptedSergeiNechaev’sNineteenthCenturyCatechismoftheRevolutionaryashis “revolutionarybible”.30 Terroristshaveemulatedbothgroupstheyadmireandtheirfiercestadversaries.The IndiannationalistBarinGhose,jailedforhisroleina1909conspiracytoassassinate amemberoftheBritishgovernmentadministrationinBengal,wrotethathis“cultof violence”was“learntfromtheIrishSeinfeinners[sic]andRussiansecretsocieties.”31 HocineAïtAhmet,theheadoftheAlgerianMouvementpourleTriomphedesLibertés Démocratiques (Movement for the Triumph of Democratic Liberties), analyzed the Irishstruggleforindependence,aswellasthetriumphofcommunisminChinaand the tactics of the Viet Minh in Indochina. 32 Yasser Arafat’s Intelligence chief Salah Khalaf, better known to posterity by his nom de guerre Abu Iyad, noted in his memoirs: “The guerrilla war in Algeria, launched five years before the creation of Fatah,hadaprofoundinfluenceonus…[It]symbolizedthesuccesswedreamedof.”33 TheAlQaedaideologueMustafaSetmarianNasar‐perhapsbestknownbyhisalias AbuMus’abal‐Suri‐employedthenomdeplume‘Castro’.34Althoughhemournedthe creation of the State of Israel, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood ideologue Sayyid 8 Qutb urged his fellow Islamists to learn from the success that the Jewish terrorist groupsLEHIandIrgunZviLeumihadenjoyedinfluencingBritishpolicyinPalestine.35 ArafatcitedtherelationshipbetweentheHaganahandIrgunasamodelforthePLO – Fatah structure. 36 The French Organization of the Secret Army (OAS) formed in 1961bydisgruntledmilitaryveteransoftheAlgerianconflictwasmodeledonthe imageofitsmainadversary,theAlgerianNationalLiberationFront(FLN).37 Thiskindofpolicytransfercanalsotakeplacedirectly,intheshapeoftraining,even betweenwhatmightseematfirstsighttobeill‐matchedgroups,suchastheJapanese Red Army and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) who cooperated in the Bekaa Valley in the early 1970s. 38 . Mia Bloom describes a “demonstrationeffect”,wherebyterroristtacticsspreadfromoneconflicttoanother because perceived success attracts imitation. Bloom shows how the adoption of suicidebombingbythePalestinianterroristgroupHamascanbetracedbacktothe December 1992 expulsion of 415 senior Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) activists from the Occupied Territories, to Marj al Zahour in Southern Lebanon. 39 DespiteHamasandPIJbothbeingSunniorganizations,theactivistsweretakeninby theShiaLebaneseterroristgroupHezbollahandprovidedwithaidandoperational training (including the use of explosives). Although many of those expelled from Israeli‐controlled territory had been intellectuals and ideologues rather than frontline fighters, on their return to the Occupied Territories in September 1993 many took a more active part in hostilities and several were linked to suicide bombingsbytheIsraeliauthorities‐atacticthathadnotpreviouslybeenusedby Palestiniangroups.40On19October1994Salehal‐SouwiboardedabusinTelAviv carryingabombconcealedinabrownbagthathethendetonated,takingtwenty‐two civilianlivesalongwithhisownandinjuringfiftyothers,makingittheworstbomb attackinIsraelihistoryupuntilthatpoint.Thefollowingdayapublicannouncement wasreadoutinmosquesacrosstheGazainwhichHamasboastedthattheattackhad beencarriedoutusingknowledgeandtechniqueslearneddirectlyfromHezbollah.41 9 Inshort,weknowfrombothterroristsandanalyststhatterroristgroupsactivelyand deliberatelylearnfromeachother.Notonlyideology,butalsostrategy(elaboration ofwhatagroup’sgoalshouldbeandhowitisbestpursued)andtactics(howtoturn strategyintopractice)areoftenshapedbyotherterroristsgroups’experience.While direct learning, in the shape of training and support, might be limited to contemporarygroups,itisclearthananumberofterroristshavefoundinspirationin oldergroupsorevenadoptedmodelsfromrivaloropposingorganizations.Thenext section proceeds to analyze the origins of modern terrorism, which go somewhat furtherbackthanRapoport’sfirstwave,andargues,asLindsayClutterbuckpointed outinhisinfluential2004critiqueofRapoport’sarticle,42thatterrorisminthelate NineteenthCenturyhadasmuchtodowithnationalismaswithanarchism. TheNineteenthCenturyOriginsofModernTerrorism Terrorism has its origins in a series of technological developments that occurred almost simultaneously in the mid‐Nineteenth Century. These have something in commonwiththecommunicationsrevolutionattheendofthecenturythatRapoport emphasized,butanumberofimportantdevelopmentsprecededthisbyabouthalfa century. The first was a revolution in military technology that concentrated the destructive power previously associated with mass military formations into the hands of a few individuals. Gunpowder had been the primary explosive in use for about1000yearswhenin1847anItalianchemistcalledAscanioSobrenocreated nitroglycerine–aliquidcompoundthatiseighttimesmorepowerfulbyweightthan gunpowder.Initsliquidformnitroglycerineprovedimmenselyunstableanddifficult to transport, but, after his brother Emil was killed in an industrial accident while working with nitroglycerine, Alfred Nobel began to experiment with methods of stabilizingtheexplosiveandthisledtohisinventionofdynamite,whichhepatented in1867.Otherkeydevelopmentsinweaponstechnologyweretheintroductionofthe revolverbySamuelColtin1835,theOrsinibomb(ahand‐throwncontactgrenade) designed and used by Felice Orsini for an assassination attempt on Emperor 10 NapoleonIIIin1858,therepeatingriflefirstmanufacturedbyChristopherSpencer in1860,andtheso‐called“horologicaltorpedo”,atimedelaybombfirstdeployedby the Confederate Secret Service in an attack on the Headquarters of Union General UlyssesS.GrantinCityPoint,Virginia,whichkilledmorethanfiftypeopleinAugust 1864. 43 The sudden availability of powerful, affordable, portable and concealable weapons‐whichcouldalsobeeasilyacquiredormanufacturedbyprivatecitizens‐ wouldprovetobesignificantforcemultiplierforstatesandnon‐stateactorsalike. The second development was the development of new mass communication technologies that allowed knowledge of ideas and events to be rapidly distributed acrossthousandsofmiles,andenabledindividualstotraveleasilyacrossborders,and evenacrossoceans,inlargernumbersthaneverbeforeopeningupaneraofmass migration and commensurate dislocation. The first working telegraph was built betweenWashingtonDCandBaltimorebySamuelMorse(whoalsodevelopedMorse codetoaidthetransmissionofmessages)becomingoperationalin1844.Thelaying ofthefirsttransatlantictelegraphcablewascompletedin185844andtheuseofthe telegraphbytheprintmediareallytookoffinthe1860swhennewspaperofficeslike the Scotsman and the London Times began to install telegraph lines in their newsrooms so that they could receive news rapidly from national capitals and overseascorrespondents.45Thesteampoweredrotaryprintingpressinventedinthe UnitedStatesin1843allowedforthereproductionofmillionsofcopiesofpageoftext in a single day. 46 On land, the world’s first commercial railway, the Stockton and Darlington Railway in England, began operation in 1825, the first railway in continentalEuropeopenedinBelgiumin1835,andRussiagotitsfirstrailwaylinein 1837,butthegreatexpansionofrailwaynetworksoccurredinthe1850sand1860s astheindividualnationalrailwaynetworksbegantolinkupofferingpassengersthe possibility of traveling across Europe by rail. On sea, the construction of the iron‐ hulledSSGreatWesternbyIsambardKingdomBrunelin1838inauguratedtheageof thetrans‐Atlanticpassengersteamer,butittooktheintroductionofscrewpropeller, iron hulls, and compound and triple expansion engines, which all combined to increase the size, fuel efficiency and range of commercial vessels, to make trans‐ 11 oceanicshippingeconomicallyviableonalargescaleby1870.GermanandItalian radicals like Johan Most and Luigi Galleani emigrated to the USA; Irish‐Americans basedinurbancentreslikeNewYork,ChicagoandBostonwereabletofundterrorist activityontheBritishMainland.Accordingly,someoftheearliestmodernterrorists – European anarchists and Irish nationalists – can be said to have posed a transnationalthreatalmostfromtheirinception. Thethirdandfinalrevolutiontookplaceintherealmofideas.PriortotheNineteenth Centurypoliticalactivityhadbeentoallintentsandpurposestheexclusiveprovince of social elites. New technologies brought access to educational opportunities that hadnotpreviouslyexisted,agriculturallaborersandartisansflockedtourbancenters attracted by new employment opportunities and creating a new social class – the industrial proletariat. Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels, Mikhail Bakunin, Pierre‐Joseph Proudhonandahostofothersdevelopedpoliticaltheoriesthatputthecommonman at the center of societal progress and created a language of working class empowerment.TheGermanrevolutionaryKarlHeinzenwasthefirsttoarticulatethe use of violence, even mass murder, by individuals to effect political change in his influential1853pamphlet,MordundFreiheit,coiningthetermfreiheits‐kämpferor freedomfighterintheprocess.47TheEuropean‐widepopularunrestof1848andthe example set by the short‐lived Paris Commune of 1871 held out hope to the disenfranchisedthatpopulargovernmentbythemasseswasnotbeyondreachand thatmeaningfulsocialchangewaspossible.ThemutinyoftheParisNationalGuard inMarch1871andthedecisionbythemutineerstoholdanelection,whichledtothe creationofasocialistgovernmentthatruledParisforthreemonthsimplementinga radicalpoliticalagenda,wouldbecomeabeaconofpromiseforsocialrevolutionaries. ThefactthattheParisCommuneendedinareactionarybloodbaththatclaimedmore thantwenty‐fivethousandlivesastheFrenchgovernmentreassertedcontrolonly strengthenedtheirresolve,drawingthebattlelinesevenmoreclearly.AstheSwiss anarchist Paul Brousse observed in an article in the radical journal Bulletin de la FédérationJurassienne:“PriortotheParisCommune,whoinFrancewasconversant 12 withtheprincipleofcommunalautonomy?Noone.”48Afterwardsitwasanideathat resonatedwiththedispossessedandmarginalizedacrossthewesternworld. The revolutionary ideals of the late Nineteenth Century were rooted as much in nationalismasinrevolutionaryradicalism.HeinzendedicatedMordundFreiheitto theHungariannationalistLibényiJánoswhoattemptedtoassassinatetheAustrian Emperor Franz Joseph I in February 1853. A few years earlier, in 1848, Mikhail BakuninhadpennedanAppealtotheSlavstoriseupagainsttheAustro‐Hungarian empire. In the Balkans the “national sympathies” to which he appealed would eventually give rise to one of the most active and enduring early terrorist organizations,theInternalMacedonianRevolutionaryOrganization(IMRO),aswell asoneofthemostconsequentialterroristattacksofalltime–theassassinationin Sarajevo of the Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand by the Bosnian Serb Gavrilo PrincipinJune1914,whichprecipitatedtheoutbreakofWorldWarI.Principwas explicit about his motivation, declaring at his trial: “I am a Yugoslav nationalist, aimingfortheunificationofallYugoslavs,andIdonotcarewhatformofstate,butit must be freed from Austria.” 49 The cause of Italian reunification was also the motivatingforcebehindFeliceOrsini’sassassinationattemptonNapoleonIII,andthe pivotal role played by Giuseppi Garibaldi and his 1,000 redshirts in the Italian Risorgimento was hugely influential on other revolutionary movements, as it demonstrated that a small group of determined men and women could have a decisiveimpactontheaffairsofgreatpowers.TheleadingItaliananarchistErrico Malatesta acknowledged the debt he and his followers owed to the heroes of the Risorgimento,notingthattheFirstInternationaltaughtitsmembersnothingthathad not already been learned from Orsini, Mazzini and Garibaldi. 50 This was certainly Orsini’sintention,hepublishedtwovolumesofmemoirsandanumberofpolitical pamphletsbasedonhiscareerasarevolutionaryduringhislifetime,includingone withanappendixentitledHowtoConspire.51 InEurope,therevolutionsof1848‐49andtheParisCommuneraisedthehopesofa rangeofradicalgroupsthatsocialchangemightbeachieved,butsomeindividuals 13 andgroupsconcludedfromtheseevents(togetherwiththefailedeffortsofRussian populists to educate and mobilize the rural population in the 1870s) that more dramaticaction–terrorism–wouldberequired.IntheUSAthetensionssurrounding theCivilWarplayedasimilarrole.InEurope,radicalsthatwereonthelosingsidein 1848‐49and1871turnedtoterrorism;intheUSAitwastheopponentsofslavery before the outbreak of the Civil War (John Brown), and many on the losing side afterwards(theKuKluxKlan).InEuropethisgaverisetoanarchistandnationalist terrorism in the second half of the Nineteenth Century; in the USA it gave rise to religiousandexclusivistterrorism. TheNineteenthCenturybroughttogetherthemeans,themotiveandtheopportunity forsmallbandsofcommittedradicalstotakethefighttotheestablishedorderand men of all political stripes were quick to realize the game‐changing tools that the marchofsciencehadplacedinthehandsoftheirfollowers.Rapoportdateshisfirst waveofterrorismasbeginninginthe1880sbutasearlyasthe1850sand1860swe can see nationalists, populists (perhaps a more accurately inclusive label for the disparate‘oldleft’groupsofRapoport’s“firstwave”thananarchism),exclusionists, andreligiousextremistsbegintoexplorethepossibilitiesthatthesenewtoolshadto offer.The‘patientszero’ofthisviralmetaphor,asbestwehavebeenabletoestablish, aretheItaliannationalistFeliceOrsini,theGermanpopulistKarlHeinzen,theformer Confederate general Nathan Bedford Forrest and the American abolitionist John Brown. NationalistTerrorism–fromFeliceOrsinitotheTamilTigers Felice Orsini was an associate of the Italian statesman Giuseppe Mazzini and a supporterofItalianunification,towhichNapoleonIIIwasperceivedasanobstacle. Inatransnationalconspiracy,whichsawOrsinibuildandtestacontactbombofhis own devising in England before traveling to Paris, Orsini and his Italian co‐ conspiratorsplannedtobombtheEmperor’scoachashedrovetotheoperaonthe 14 eveningof14January1858.Three‘Orsini’bombs,employingfulminateofmercury asanexplosive,detonatedkillingandinjuringanumberofonlookersinthecrowd butleavingNapoleonandhisentourageessentiallyunharmed.Injuredintheblasts, Orsiniwasdetainedbeforehecouldmakegoodhisescapeandwasultimatelysentto theguillotine.52 Intheend,Italy’spathtounificationwouldbedriveninlargepartbytheactionsof regular and irregular forces, rather than clandestine groups, and the torch of nationalist terrorism would be taken up by Irish nationalists based in the United StateswholaunchedaviolentassaultonthemajorcitiesoftheBritishmainlandin the1880s.Thecampaignwaseightyearsinthemaking.Intheautumnof1875Patrick Ford, the editor of the Brooklyn‐based newspaper Irish World, and his brother Augustine,bothpassionatesupportersofIrishindependence,hadfirstdevelopedthe idea of dispatching what they termed “skirmishers” from the United States to undermineBritishruleinIreland.53PatrickexplainedhisplaninthepagesofIrish World:“TheIrishcauserequiresskirmishers.Itrequiresalittlebandofheroeswho willinitiateandkeepupwithoutintermissionaguerillawarfare–menwhowillfly overthelandandsealikeinvisiblebeings–nowstrikingtheenemyinIreland,now inIndia,nowinEnglanditself,asoccasionmaypresent.”54Theuseofskirmishershad attractedsignificantattentionduringtheAmericanCivilWarasaresultofaseriesof influential articles written by General John Watts de Peyster under the title New AmericanTactics.Usingtheirnewspaperasaplatform,theFordsjoinedwiththeIrish nationalist leader Jeremiah O’Donovan Rossa to establish a “Skirmishing Fund” to raise money for their plan, and it was the revenue from this fund (renamed the National Fund in 1878) that would be used to fund operations of the Irish secret society Clan Na Gael (Family of Gaels) operations, as well as additional attacks by “skirmishers” working directly for Rossa. Between 1881 and 1887 the so‐called “DynamiteCampaign”sawhigh‐profiletargetsinLondonlikeTowerBridge,Scotland Yard,thePalaceofWestminsterandthenewUndergroundrailsystemcomeunder attack ‐ one bomb that detonated on the Metropolitan line injured seventy‐two 15 people,mostlythirdclasspassengers.55TherewerefurtherbombingsinManchester, LiverpoolandGlasgow. Irish nationalist terrorist groups would come and go over the next 130 years. As President of the Irish Republican Brotherhood, Adjutant‐General of the Irish Volunteers and Director of Information of the shadow nationalist government MichaelCollinsledanurbanguerrillacampaignthatplayedacrucialroleinsecuring theindependenceofthesoutherntwenty‐sixcountiesofIrelandin1921.Thesuccess ofCollinsandhistacticsinspirednationalliberationmovementsaroundtheworld. As the leader of Jewish terrorist group LEHI, future Israeli Prime Minster Yitzhak Shamiradopted‘Michael’ashisnomdeguerreinexplicithomagetoMichaelCollins.56 Further outbreaks of Irish nationalist violence – focused on securing a British withdrawalfromtheremainingsixcountiesofNorthernIreland‐wouldoccurduring theSecondWorldWar,thelate1950sandearly1960s,andforthreedecadesfrom the1970stothe1990s,featuringsuchgroupsastheIrishRepublicanArmy(IRA),the ProvisionalIRAandtheIrishNationalLiberationArmy.57Fringenationalistgroups liketheRealIRAandtheContinuityArmyCouncilcontinuetorejecttheNorthern Ireland Peace Process to this day, with the most recent fatal attack at the time of writing,themurderofPrisonOfficerDavidBlack,occurringasrecentlyasNovember 2012. Thenationaliststrainoftheterroristviruscanbetrackedspreadingacrosstheglobe farbeyondIreland.Ashortlistofotherprominentnationalistterroristgroupswould includetheIndianBarinGhoseandtheManiktalagroupfightingBritishruleinthe first decades of the Twentieth Century, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization(IMRO)activeinthesameperiod,ZionistextremistgroupslikeIrgun and LEHI fighting the British Mandate or their Arab counterparts, the Black Hand foundedbySheikhIzzal‐Dinal‐Qassam,theAlgerianFrontdeLibérationNationale (FLN)activeagainstFrenchcolonialrulefrom1954to1962,theGreekCypriotgroup Ethniki Organosis Kyprion Agoniston (EOKA – the National Organization of Cypriot Struggle)whofoughttheBritishfrom1955to1959,theLiberationTigersofTamil 16 Eelam(LTTE)activeinSriLankafrom1976to2009,andfinallythePalestiniangroup Fatehfoundedinthelate1950sandstillactivetoday.58Itisimportanttonotethat manyofthesegroups,ifnotdirectlyresponsibleforsecuringindependencefortheir people,havebecomeanimportant,ifnotcrucial,partoftheirnations’independence narratives–inspiringfurtheremulation.Thechainofnationalistterrorismstretches unbrokenfromthe1880stothepresentday. SocialistTerrorism–fromKarlHeinzentoETA While Karl Heinzen did not himself convert words into deeds, he helped inspire a generation of populists, socialists and anarchists that would put his program into action. His influence was such that two days after Leon Czolgosz assassinated US PresidentWilliamMcKinleyinSeptember1901,JohanMostreprintedKarlHeinzen’s essayDerMord,writtenalmostfiftyyearsearlier,toprovidepoliticalcontexttothe incident–agesturethatearnedhimaconvictionintheNewYorkcourtsforwillfully and wrongfully endangering the public peace. 59 Marx and Engels were also well acquaintedwithHeinzen’swork–withEngelsinparticulargoingoutofhiswayto disparageHeinzenintheBritishpress.60 It was another associate of Marx and Engels, the Russian anarchist philosopher MikhailBakunin,whoworkingwitharadicalRussianstudentSergeiNechaev,helped tolaythefoundationforoneofthefirstleftistterrorgroups,Nechaev’sNarodnaya Rasprava (The People’s Retribution), briefly active in 1869. Narodnaya Rasprava would partially inspire the creation of a far better organized clandestine populist group, Narodnaya Volya in 1879. 61 It was Narodnaya Volya that succeeded in assassinatingTsarAlexanderIIin1881.LeftistterrorismwouldcontinueinRussia untilthetriumphoftheBolshevikRevolution,anditisworthrecallingthatLenin’s elder brother, Aleksander, was executed in 1887 because of his association with NarodnayaVolyaplottokillTsarAlexanderIII.Anarchistterrorismwouldbecomea worldwidephenomenon.InSeptember1883aringofconspirators,ledbytheself‐ 17 describedanarchist‐communistKameradReinsdorf,onlynarrowlyfailedtoblowup KaiserWilhelmIandthe‘IronChancellor’OttovonBismarck.62AsRapoportnotes, the1890swouldseetheassassinationoftheKingofItaly,thePrimeMinisterofSpain, the President of France, and Empress Elizabeth of Austria. Anarchist groups detonatedbombsacrossWesternEuropeandtheUnitedStates,withmajorattacks taking place as far afield as Paris (1892 and 1894), Barcelona (1893 and 1896), London (1894), Milwaukee (1917), New York (1920) and Milan (1921). As late as 1928,BhagatSinghoftheHindustanSocialistRepublicanAssociation(HSRA),who washeavilyinfluencedbythethinkingofMikhailBakunin,63gunneddownAssistant Superintendent John Saundersasa reprisalfor the violent suppression of a public demonstrationinLahorebycolonialpolice.IndeliberateemulationoftheNineteenth CenturyFrenchanarchistAugusteValliant,SinghfollowedtheattackonSaundersby hurlingtwosmallbombsontotheflooroftheCentralLegislativeAssemblyinNew Delhiwhilethechamberwasinsession.64 ToallintentsandpurposesRapoport’sthirdwaveof‘newleft’terrorismisreallyjust the uninterrupted evolution of the ‘old left’ activity he groups together as his first wave.InRussia,theSocialRevolutionaryPartypickedupthethreadfromNarodnaya Volyaaftertherepressionofstudentrebellionsattheturnofthecentury,andagain aftertheabortedrevolutionof1905‐06,65andmanyofthepractitionersofterrorism ontheleftlenttheirskillstothenewregime’s“redterror”afterthe1917revolution.66 The Communist International (or Comintern) became at the same time the instrument and the victim of Stalin’s terror outside Russia.67 The lessons Mao Tse Tung derived from fighting both the invading Imperial Japanese Army and the ChineseNationalistarmyofChiangKai‐shekinthelate1930sledtotheformulation ofhisdoctrineofPeople’sWarthatwoulddeeplyinformtheactivitiesofgroupslike theRedArmyFaction,ShiningPath,andtheRedBrigades,aswellasshapingthework ofotherkeytheoristsofirregularwarfareandurbanguerrillacombatsuchasRégius Debray, Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara and Carlos Marighella. The concept of armed propagandadevelopedbytheTupamaroswasreallyjustarestatementoftheideaof propagandaofthedeedfirstarticulatedbyBakunin,andpopularizedbyPaulBrousse, 18 inthe1870s.Theheydayofnew‐leftterrorismmayhavebeeninthe1970sand1980s butsomeofthesamegroupsstillremainactiveandtheirexamplecontinuestoexert influence to this day. Michael Ryan, author of Decoding Al Qaeda’s Strategy, even wrylynotes:“AlQaeda’sstrategicwritingsmaybeginandendwithIslamicreferences andprayersbuttheircoreargumentshavelesstodowithIslamthanwiththetexts of communist insurgents and idealogues.” 68 People’s War theory also heavily influencednationalistgroupsliketheProvisionalIRA,theArmenianSecretArmyfor theLiberationofArmenia(ASALA),thePopularFrontfortheLiberationofPalestine, and the Basque separatist group Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA), which all shared a Marxistsensibility.69 ReligiousTerrorism–fromJohnBrowntoAlQaeda InMay1856theAmericanabolitionistJohnBrown,amilitantopponentofslaveryin thesouthernUnitedStatesrodeintothepro‐slaveryKansassettlementPottawatomie withhissmallgroupoffollowersandpulledfivemembersoftheproslaveryLawand OrderPartyfromtheirbedsandbrutallyexecutedthem.Motivatedbyhisprofound Christianfaith,Brown’savowedintentwasto“makeanexample,andsostriketerror” inthehopesofstampedingproslaveryciviliansintoleavingtheKansasterritory.70 WhenBrownledhisraidonthefederalarmoryinHarpersFerryinOctober1859he hoped–likesomanyofthemenandwomenofviolencethatwouldcomeafterhim‐ hissmallbandwouldinspireotherstoriseupbytheirexampleandtakebacktheir freedomusingtheweaponsfromthearmory.Brownandhismenseizedthearmory and took thirty‐five local inhabitants hostage. The hoped‐for uprising did not transpire and a federal force – ironically enough led by the future Confederate Commander‐in‐ChiefRobertE.Lee–capturedBrown,killedtenofhismen,including twoofhissons,andfreedtheirhostages.Brownwasswiftlyputontrial,whichhe usedasplatformtoproclaimhisviews,andthenexecuted.Asbefittedamanwhohad admonished his followers “to take more care to end life well than to live long”, 71 Brown went to scaffold quite cheerfully, embracing martyrdom. Max Boot has 19 described Brown as “one of the more consequential terrorists in history” quoting FrederickDouglass’epitaph:“IfJohnBrowndidnotendthewarthatendedslavery, hedidatleastbeginthewarthatendedslavery.”72HenryDavidThoreausaidofhis execution: “Some eighteen hundred years ago, Christ was crucified; This morning, perchance,CaptainBrownwashung....HeisnotOldBrownanylonger;heisanangel oflight.”73 Thereligiousstrainlaydormantformorethanhalfacenturybeforeemergingonce more,butintheinterimreligiousbeliefcertainlyimpactedotherstrains.Forexample, WalterLaqueurtracesmanyoftheimportantideasaboutjustifiabletyrannicidein anarchistandearlynationalistterrorismtoChristianthought,eventhoughterrorists likeHeinzenemphasizedthedistinctionbetweenthetwodoctrines.74Religionwas animportantfactorinIrishnationalism‐withtheEasterUprisingin1916Padraig Pearseandhisconfederatesexplicitlysetouttoestablishwhathetermed“atheology ofinsurrection”andthechoiceofEasterMondayfortherisingwasalsodeliberatein this regard, with its connotations of sacrifice and resurrection.75 The action of the British authorities only served to amplify this effect. As the Provisional IRA intelligenceofficerEamonCollinswouldwritemorethaneightyyearslater:“Inmy mind,Pearseand[James]Connollywerealllinkedtogether.Theyweremartyrsfor ourCatholicfaith,thetruereligion:religionandpoliticsfusedtogetherbytheblood of the martyrs. I was prepared to be martyr, to die for this Catholic faith.” 76 The AmericanMarxistterrorgrouptheWeatherUndergroundwouldalsolaternameone ofitspublicationsOsawatomie,afteratowninKansasthatJohnBrownhadtriedto defendagainstpro‐Slaveryraidersin1856.77 ThefirstmodernIslamistrevivalmovement,theSocietyoftheMuslimBrothersor Muslim Brotherhood, would reactivate the strain and putting faith at the heart of politics. Founded in Egypt in March 1928, the central virtues of the Muslim Brotherhood’s philosophy were militancy (within the context of jihad) and martyrdom. 78 The group’s semi‐autonomous military wing, known as the Secret Apparatus (al‐jihaz), carried out terrorist attacks against Egyptian government 20 figures, British military targets in the Suez Canal Zone, and businesses considered emblematicofunwelcomewesterninfluencesuchascinemasandnightclubs.79The BrotherhoodevensentvolunteerstofightintheArab‐IsraeliWarof1948.Forthe Society’s founder, a former school teacher called Hasan al‐Banna, martyrdom was apogeeofpoliticalstruggle:“Thesuprememartyrdomisonlyconferredonthosewho slayorareslaininthewayofGod.Asdeathisinevitableandcanhappenonlyonce, partakinginjihadisprofitableinthisworldandthenext.”80TheSocietyofMuslim Brothers was forcibly disbanded by the Egyptian Prime Minister Mahmoud an‐ NukrashiPashainearlyDecember1948.Whenan‐Nukrashiwasassassinatedbya student member of the Brotherhood just three weeks later, Hasan al‐Banna was gunneddownonastreetinCairobytheEgyptianSecretPoliceinretaliation.81 Hasanal‐Banna’splacewastakenbyaformerschoolinspectorandpublicintellectual, Sayyid Qutb, who joined the Muslim Brotherhood in 1953. Qutb’s most successful work,Milestones,mapsoutanuncompromisingprogramforadvancingtheIslamist cause:“PreachingaloneisnotenoughtoestablishthedominionofAllahonearth… ThosewhohaveusurpedtheauthorityofAllahandareoppressingAllah’screatures arenotgoingtogiveuptheirpowermerelythroughpreaching.”82WhentheEgyptian government became aware of Qutb’s role in helping to reestablish the Muslim Brotherhoodonaclandestinebasis,hewasarrested,sentencedtodeathandexecuted inAugust1966.HisbiographerJohnCalvertcomparesMilestonestoLenin’ssimilarly influential What is to be Done? 83 Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who led the political movementHizb‐iIslamiagainsttheSovietoccupationofAfghanistaninthelate1970s and1980s,andShaykhSalamatHashim,formerleaderoftheMoroIslamicLiberation Front(MILF)inthePhilippines,publiclycreditedQutbastheirinspiration.84Osama bin Laden attended public lectures given by Qutb’s brother, Muhammad, at King Abdul‐AzizUniversityinJeddah,andhissuccessorasleaderofAlQaeda,AymanAl Zawahiri,wasraisedontalesofQutb’spietyandvisionbyhisuncleMahfouzAzzam, Qutb’spersonallawyerandtheexecutorofhiswill.85 21 TheMuslimBrotherhoodwouldbecometheinspirationforanumberofmorerecent Islamistterroristorganizations.AymanAlZawahiripublishedastudyoftheMuslim Brotherhood in 1991 entitled The Bitter Harvest, which, though critical, also illustrates the conceptual debt Al Qaeda owes the Brotherhood. 86 The Muslim Brotherhood’suniquecombinationofmilitancyandsocialserviceprovisionhasalso been widely copied, including by terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Service provision creates its own dynamic strengthening bonds between armed groupsandtheirconstituents,butalsocreatesobligations.AstheDeputySecretary‐ GeneralofHezbollah,NaimQassem,explainedinhismemoirs:“Socialworkservesto enrichsupporters’confidenceintheviabilityoftheParty’scausesandcourse,asit cooperates, collaborates and joins forces to remain strong and tenacious in its politicalandresistanceroles.”87 Rapoport dates the beginning of his fourth, religious, wave to the upheavals that grippedtheMuslimworldin1979–apivotalyearcertainly,whichashenotessaw theIslamicrevolutioninIran,theSovietinvasionofAfghanistanandthesiegeofthe GrandMosqueinMeccabyradicalfollowersofMohammedAbdullahal‐Qahtani–but itisclearthattheseedsoftheIslamicrevivalgobackmuch,muchfurther.Ofcourse it should be stressed that religious terrorism is not an exclusively Islamic phenomenon.RapoportnotestheviolenceoftheChristianIdentitymovementinthe UnitedStatesinthe1990s,JewishterrorismagainsttheIsraeliseculargovernment, and Sikh terrorism in the 1980s; to which one could also add the rising tide of BuddhistviolencedirectedattheMuslimpopulationofBurmaandtheroletheJewish faithplayedinthelegitimizingnarrativesofbothIrgunandLEHIinthe1930sand 1940s.88 SocialExclusionTerrorism–fromNathanForresttoAndersBehringBreivik TheConfederateStatesofAmericahadbeenoneofthefirstgovernmentstograspthe potentialthattheNineteenthCenturyrevolutioninmilitarycapabilitiesrepresented. 22 In 1863 Bernard Janin Sage published a pamphlet titled Organization of Private Warfare promoting the use of irregular bands of “destructionists”, which he conceived as operating under loose official direction on land much as privateers operatedatsea,insuchawaythattheConfederacycould“dothemostharmwiththe least expense to ourselves.” 89 The pamphlet influenced the creation of the Confederate Bureau of Special and Secret Service, which was behind the attack on Grant’s headquarters. Confederate ‘bush‐whackers’ like William Quantrill engaged UnionisttroopsalongtheMissouri‐Kansasborderinhighlymobileirregularwarfare and later morphed into criminal incarnations such as the James‐Younger Gang (of JesseJamesfame).ThereisevidenceofcollusionbetweenveteransofbothQuantrill’s raidersandtheJames‐Youngergang,andoneofthemostactiveearlyKuKluxKlan ‘dens’inAlamanceCounty,NorthCarolina.Althoughhewasnotafoundingmember oftheKlan–thatdubioushonorfelltosixyoungConfederate veteransinPulaski, Tennessee‐theConfederatecavalrygeneralNathanBedfordForrestwouldbethe first leader of the Klan in its mature political and activist form. 90 The racism that underpinned the institution of slavery, and thus inevitably the Confederate cause, gaverisetotheKuKluxKlanaroundwhichoppositionandresistancetotheUnionist reconstructionofthesouthcoalesced.Duringtheelevenyearsofreconstructionfrom 1865‐1876 the Klan killed an estimated 3,000 freed former slaves and brutally intimidatedblackcommunitiesfromrealizinganysemblanceofequality.Thefailure ofthefederalgovernmenttointervenetosecurethe1875electioninMississippiwith predictable consequences for black voters led its Republican Governor, Adelbert Ames,toproclaimindisgust:“Arevolutionhastakenplace(byforceofarms)anda racearedisenfranchised–theyaretobereturnedtoaconditionofserfdom.”91The Ku Klux Klan had snatched no small measure of victory from the jaws of defeat. Although reconstruction was abandoned in 1876 the Klan’s racially motivated violence would continue more than a century spawning beatings, lynchings, bombings and assassinations. This violence attracted little attention outside the southern United States until the 1960s, and as such it exerted little influence on politicaldevelopmentsfurtherafield,buttheKlanmightneverthelessbereasonably describedasthefirstmodernterroristorganization. 23 However,theKlanisfarfromtheonlyexclusionistterroristorganizationtoplyits tradearoundtheworld.InRussiatheantisemiticundergroundmovementknownas theBlackHundredsassassinatedtwoJewishmembersoftheRussianDumain1906 andlaunchedaseriesofpogromsagainstJewishcommunitiesintheUkraineinthe yearsbeforetheoutbreakofWorldWarI.Inthe1920sGermanysawtheemergence of the Nazi party’s Sturmabteilung (the SA, or Stormtoopers), a paramilitary organization that used terrorism in support the political party (which included its owninternalbodyresponsibleforterrorintheshapeoftheShutzstaffel‐theSS)and merits its inclusion in books on terrorism. 92 Walter Laqueur includes the German Freikorps,andHungarianandRomanianfascistsamongrightwingterroristgroups thatattackedpoliticalleaders:theIronGuardkilledtwoRomanianprimeministers inthe1930s.93FrenchsettlerviolencewasanimportantfactorintheAlgerianwarof independence.On10August1956aformerFrenchintelligenceofficerAndréAchiary, supportedbymembersoftheUnionFrançaiseNord‐Africaine,plantedalargebomb in Rue de Thèbes, Algiers, which killed 73 local Muslim residents and helped precipitatetheBattleofAlgiers.ThedisaffectedFrenchmilitarypersonneloftheOAS evenattemptedamilitarycoup,andtriedtoassassinatePresidentCharlesdeGaulle onseveraloccasions.94AsMichaelBurleighnotes,theOASwasactuallyresponsible for more deaths than the entire Northern Ireland conflict. 95 The activities of the Italian RedBrigades in the 1970swere met by a strongcounter‐reactionfromthe ItalianextremerightandgroupslikeBlackOrder,RevolutionaryFascistNuclei,and NewOrder:6peoplewerekilledwhenabombexplodedin1970ontheFrecciadel SudexpresstrainconnectingMilanwithPalermo;8werekilledbyabombplantedin aunionmeetingatthePiazzadellaLoggiainBresciaand12inatrainbombingin Italicus near Bologna in 1974. 96 Neo‐fascist terrorism reached a climax in August 1980when84peoplewerekilledand200woundedinabombblastatBolognatrain station. The right‐wing backlash in Italy was also echoed in Germany with the bombing of the Munich Oktoberfest in September 1980 by the neo‐Nazi Gundolf Köhler,inwhich13peoplewerekilled(includingKöhler)and211injured.Theright‐ wingbacklashinItalywasalsoechoedinGermanywiththebombingoftheMunich 24 OktoberfestinSeptember1980bytheneo‐NaziGundolfKöhler,inwhich13people werekilled(includingKöhler)and211injured.97 In2011theSouthernPovertyLawCenterpublishedalistofmorethan100“plots, conspiraciesandracistrampages”thathadoccurredintheUnitedStatessincethe 1995 Oklahoma City bombing committed by white supremacist Timothy McVeigh, whichitselfclaimed168lives.98InDecember2008policeinvestigatingthemurderof JamesG.CummingsinBelfast,Maine,discoveredthathehadbeenintheprocessof assemblingahomemadedirtybomb.Cummings,awhitesupremacistandanardent admirerofAdolfHitler,wasreportedly“veryupset”abouttheelectionofPresident BarackObama.99AsimilarlydisturbingincidentoccurredinApril2003whenfederal investigators stumbled across an arms cache assembled by 63‐year‐old white supremacistWilliamKrar,whichincluded800gramsofsodiumcyanide–enoughto kill 1000s of people. 100 As recently as June 2015 twenty‐one‐year‐old white supremacistDylannRoofwalkedintoachurchinCharleston,SouthCarolina,andshot dead nine African‐American worshippers telling one of his victims: “You rape our womenandyou’retakingoverourcountry.Andyouhavetogo.”101 OthercontemporaryexamplesofthisstrainwouldincludetheBritishneo‐NaziDavid Copeland,whodetonatedthreenailbombstargetingimmigrantandgaycommunities in London over a thirteen‐day period in April 1999, claiming 3 lives and maiming dozensmore.ThereisalsoofcoursetheNorwegianracistAndersBehringBreivik, whoon22July2011detonateda950Kilogramnitratefertilizerbombconcealedina whiteVolkswagenvanparkedoutsidegovernmentbuildingsinOslo,killing8people andinjuring9seriously.HethentraveledtoaLabourPartyyouthcampontheisland ofUtøyawhereheshotdead69campersandwounded33.102Breiviklaterstatedthat oneofthereasonshehadspecificallychosentheislandasatargetwasthattheformer Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland had been scheduled to speak there,butshehadalreadyleftUtøyabythetimehearrived.Heclaimedtobeacting onbehalfofafictitious“KnightsTemplar”organizationandpublishedamanifesto setting out his anti‐socialist and xenophobic beliefs online before the attacks. This 25 was the worst violent incident in Norway since the Second World War and commentatorsestimatedthat1in4Norwegiansknewsomeonepersonallyaffected bytheattacks.Overtortacitracismisalsoanimportantaspectofdelegitimizingand dehumanizingnarrativesinconflictsdrivenbyreligiousornationalistsentiments. Conclusion–TheFourHorsemenRide Rapoport’s Four Waves of Modern Terrorism is the field of terrorism studies’ equivalent of Francis Fukuyama’s essay on The End of History. It is thought‐ provokingandconceptuallyuseful.However,whileatfirstglanceitseemstofitthe facts,therealityismessierandmoreprosaic.Therearenowavesofmodernterrorism –therearesimplynumeroussituationsaroundtheworldwherethemeans,motive andopportunitytoseekpoliticalchangethroughviolencehavegivenrisetoterrorist actorsmotivatedbyoneormoreofthefourstrainsoutlinedabove. Thetruthisthatwearelivinginanageofterrorism,andhavebeenforacenturyand ahalf.Modernterrorismisaproductofthedramaticchangesinweaponstechnology andmasscommunicationsintheNineteenthCenturyandthedevelopmentofradical ideologies that inspired revolutionary groups to experiment with new forms of political violence. The four strainsof modern terrorism all have their roots in this confluenceofmeansandmotive.Technologicalandideationaldevelopmentsmade modernterrorism,technologicalandideologicalchangedrovedevelopmentsinthe fourstrainsduringtheTwentiethCentury,andtechnologicalandideologicalchange islikelytoshapetheirfuturetrajectories. Terroristgroupscomeinmanyshapesandsizes,andtheyevolveandmutate.Jessica Sterncoinedthephrase‘theProteanenemy’–aftertheshape‐shiftingGreekseagod featuredinHomer’sOdyssey‐todescribethechallengeposedbyterrorismbecause oftheconstantlychangingnatureofthegroupsinvolvedandthechangingnatureof threat itself.103 Terrorism is not, and will never be, a conceptually clean label. As 26 Rapoporthasnoted,terroristsarecomplexactorsthatmaysimultaneouslyinhabit multiple identities 104 ‐ terrorist and drug trafficker, terrorist and freedom fighter, terroristandrevolutionary,Marxistandnationalist–butattheircoreallthegroups featured in this article all have one thing in common: they are prepared to indiscriminatelyandviolentlytargetciviliansforpoliticalgain. Thefourstrainsdifferfundamentallyinideology.Someoftheorganizationscitedin thisarticleusedterrorismasoneofseveraltactics,butformany,terrorismbecame theircentral,definingcharacteristic:astrategythatdefinedwhattheirgoalswereand howtheseweretobeachieved.Thereisampleevidencethattheyhavelearnedfrom eachother.Judgingbywhattheterroriststhemselvesclaim,contagion(orlearning) seemstohavebeensomewhatstrongerwithineachstrainthanacrossstrains.Butit mustalsobeacknowledgedthatinmanycasesideasjumpedacrossbothgenerations andideologies. All four strains have proven resilient, despite the ideological and technological revolutionsoftheTwentiethandTwenty‐FirstCenturies.Today,insomerespects, thesocialandpoliticalspaceinwhichtooperateasaterroristactorisshrinking.For example, emerging technologies like facial recognition, social media, robotics, predictivealgorithms,artificialintelligence,andgeneticmarkingwillmakeitharder andharderforindividualsorsmallgroupstooperateoffthegrid.Inotherrespects, withtheriseoffailedstatesandthe“feralcities”thatcounterinsurgencyexpertDavid Kilcullen warns of in Out of the Mountains, their space to operate might be increasing. 105 The question about the future threat of terrorism is not so much whetherandwhenanewwavemightemerge,ashowchanginggeopolitics,ideology andtechnologymightaffecteachofthefourstrainsandwhethertheymightmutate intonewformsofpoliticalviolence. 27 1Thearticleappearedinthreeversions:DavidC.Rapoport,“TheFourthWave:September11andthe HistoryofTerrorism,”CurrentHistory,100,no.650(2001)419‐424;“TheFourWavesofRebel TerrorandSeptember11”,Anthropoetics8,no.1(2002);“TheFourWavesofModernTerrorism”,in AudreyKurthCroninandJamesLudes(eds.),AttackingTerrorism:ElementsofaGrandStrategy (WashingtonDC:GeorgetownUniversityPress;2004).46‐73. 2Seee.g.DavidC.Rapoport,“TheFourWavesofModernTerrorism”,inJohnHorganandKurt Braddock(eds),TerrorismStudies:AReader(London:Routledge:2012). 3SamuelP.Huntington,TheThirdWave:DemocratizationintheLateTwentiethCentury,(Norman: UniversityofOklahomaPress:1991);“Democracy’sThirdWave”JournalofDemocracy,2,no.2 (1991),12‐34. 4SeealsoRapoport’searlierworkalongsimilarlines:DavidC.Rapoport,“Introduction”,Journalof StrategicStudies,10,no.4(1987),1‐10;and“SacredTerror:AContemporaryExamplefromIslam”, inWalterReich(ed.),OriginsofTerrorism:Psychologies,Ideologies,Theologies,StateofMind (Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,1990). 5Rapoport,“TheFourWavesofModernTerrorism”(seenote1above),47. 6LindsayClutterbuckwasoneofthefirsttorefutethisargumentbyoutliningthecriticalroleplayed byIrishnationalistgroupslikeClanNaGaelandTheSkirmishersinthedevelopmentofterrorist practiceinthenineteenthcentury.SeeLindsayClutterbuck,“TheProgenitorsofTerrorism:Russian RevolutionariesorExtremeIrishRepublicans?”,JournalofTerrorismandPoliticalViolence,16:1 (2004),154‐181. 7Rapoport,““TheFourWavesofModernTerrorism”(seenote1above),47. 8Rapoport,“TheFourWavesofModernTerrorism”(seenote1above),47. 9Rapoport,“TheFourWavesofModernTerrorism”(seenote1above),48. 10DianeStone,“TransferandTranslationofPolicy”,PolicyStudies,33,no.6(November2012),483‐ 499. 11BarbaraLevittandJames.G.March,“OrganizationalLearning”,AnnualReviewofSociology,14 (1988),319‐340;James.G.March,“ExplorationandExploitationinOrganizationalLearning, OrganizationScience,2,no.1(1991),SpecialIssue:OrganizationalLearning:PapersinHonorof(and by)JamesG.March,71‐87. 12SeeRobertWinthrop,DictionaryofConceptsinCulturalAnthropology(NewYork:Greenwood, 1991)andEverettRogers,DiffusionofInnovations(NewYork:FreePress,2003). 13MauriceDuverger,PoliticalParties:TheirOrganizationandActivityintheModernState(London: Methuen,1954). 14RichardS.KatzandPeterMair(eds):HowPartiesOrganize:ChangeandAdaptationinParty OrganizationsinWesternDemocracies,(London:Sage,1995). 15SeePeterWaldmann,“Social‐revolutionaryterrorisminLatinAmericaandEurope”,inToreBjørgo (ed.),RootCausesofTerrorism:Myth,realityandwaysforward(London:Routledge,2005).Seealso ManusMidlarsky,MarthaCrenshawandFumihikoYoshida,“WhyViolenceSpreads:TheContagionof InternationalTerrorism”,InternationalStudiesQuarterly,24,no.2(June1980),262‐298. 16NikolaiMorozov,TheTerroristStruggle(1880),republishedinWalterLaqueur(ed.),Voicesof Terror:Manifestos,WritingsandManualsofAlQaeda,Hamas,andotherTerroristsfromaroundthe worldandThroughouttheAges(NapervilleIll.:ReedPress,2004),81 17MarieFleming,“Propagandabythedeed:Terrorismandanarchisttheoryinlatenineteenth‐ centuryEurope”,StudiesinConflict&Terrorism,4,no.1‐4(1980),1‐23 18DavidC.Rapoport,“TheFourWavesofModernTerrorism”(seenote1above),52 19Huntington,“Democracy’sThirdWave”(seenote3above),13. 20NickSitterandTomParker,“FightingFirewithWater:NGOandCounter‐TerrorismPolicyTools”, GlobalPolicy,5,no.2(2014)159‐168. 21PaulJ.DiMaggio&WalterW.Powell,"Theironcagerevisited"institutionalisomorphismand collectiverationalityinorganizationalfields",AmericanSociologicalReview,48(1983),147‐60. 28 22PeterHart,TheI.R.A.atWar1916‐1923(Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,2003);Lindsay Clutterbuck“TheProgenitorsofTerrorism”(seenote6above);CharlesTownshend,“TheIrish RepublicanArmyandtheDevelopmentofGuerillaWarfare,1916‐1921”,TheEnglishHistorical Review,94,no.371(1979),318‐345;CharlesTownshend,TheRepublic:TheFightforIrish Independence,(AllenLane,2013). 23TimPatCoogan,MichaelCollins:ABiography,(London:ArrowBooks,1991)13. 24T.RyleDwyer,TheSquadandtheIntelligenceOperationsofMichaelCollins(Dublin:Mercier,2005), 65 25K.R.M.Short,TheDynamiteWar:Irish‐AmericanBombersinVictorianBritain(Dublin:Gilland Macmillan,1979),47 26ScottMiller,ThePresidentandtheAssassin:McKinley,Terror,andEmpireattheDawnofthe AmericanCentury(NewYork:RandomHouse,2011),6. 27BernardineDohrn,DeclarationofaStateofWar,TheBerkeleyTribe,31July1970at http://www.lib.berkeley.edu/MRC/pacificaviet/scheertranscript.html(accessed26July2015) 28OttoBillig,“TheLawyerTerroristandHisComrades”,PoliticalPsychology,6,no.1(March1985), 32. 29GeorgeKassimeris,InsideGreekTerrorism(Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress;2013),33 30PaulAvrich,AnarchistPortraits(PrincetonNJ:PrincetonUniversityPress;1988),13 31PeterHeehs,“TerrorisminIndiaduringtheFreedomStruggle”,TheHistorian,55,no.3(Spring 1993),469–482,474 32ChristopherCradockandM.L.R.Smith,“NoFixedValues:AReinterpretationoftheInfluenceofthe TheoryofGuerreRévolutionnaireandtheBattleofAlgiers1956‐1957”,JournalofColdWarStudies, 9,no.4(Fall2007),68‐105,80‐81 33AbuIyad,PalestiniensansPatrie:EntretiensavecÉricRouleau,(Paris:Fayolle1978),64. 34JarretBrachmanandWilliamMcCants,“StealingAlQaeda'sPlaybook”,StudiesinConflictand Terrorism,29,no.4(June2006),309‐321. 35JohnCalvert,SayyidQutbandtheOriginsofRadicalIslamism(NewYork:ColumbiaUniversity Press;2010),122. 36TonyWalkerandAndewGowers:Arafat:TheBiography(London:VirginBooks,2003),33‐34. 37MarthaCrenshaw,“TheEffectivenessofTerrorismintheAlgerianWar”,inMarthaCrenshaw(ed.) TerrorisminContext(UniversityPark,PA:PennsylvaniaStateUniversityPress,1995),474 38AmiPedahzur,TheIsraeliSecretServicesandtheStruggleAgainstTerrorism(NewYork,NY: ColumbiaStudiesinTerrorismandIrregularWarfare,2009),38 39MiaBloom,DyingtoKill:TheAllureofSuicideTerror(NewYork:ColumbiaUniversityPress,2005), 122. 40Ibid,123. 41JeffreyWilliamLewis,TheBusinessofMartyrdom:AHistoryofSuicideBombing(Annapolis,MD: NavalInstitutePress,2012),158. 42LindsayClutterbuck,“TheProgenitorsofTerrorism”(seenote6above). 43JohnGrady,TheConfederateTorpedo,Opinionator,TheNewYorkTimes,15August2014 44Thefirstcableonlyfunctionedforthreeweeksandwasnotsuccessfullyreplaceduntil1866 45AndrewMarr,MyTrade:AShortHistoryofBritishJournalism(London:PanBooks,2005),15 46PhilipMeggs,AHistoryofGraphicDesign(NewYork:JohnWiley&Sons,1998),147. 47KarlHeinzen,MurderandFreedom(NewYork:1853)reproducedinDanielBessnerandMichael Stauch,“KarlHeinzenandtheIntellectualOriginsofModernTerror”,TerrorismandPoliticalViolence, 22,no.2(2010),143–176. 48PaulBrousse,"Lapropagandeparlefait",BulletindelaFédérationJurassienne,August1877. 49Frenchtranslationofthetrialtranscript,AlbertMousset,UnDrameHistorique:L’Attentatde Sarajevo:documentsinéditsettexteintégraledessténogrammesduprocés(Paris:Payoy,1930),115. 50 Nunzio Pernicone, “Luigi Galleani and Italian Anarchist Terrorism in the United States”, Studi Emigrazione,30,no.111(September1993),469‐489,470 51MarcoPinfari,“ExploringtheTerroristNatureofPoliticalAssassinations:AReinterpretationofthe OrsiniAttentat”,TerrorismandPoliticalViolence,21,no.4(2009),580‐594,585. 52DavidGeorge,“DistinguishingClassicalTyrannicidefromModernTerrorism”,The 29 ReviewofPolitics50,no.3(Summer1988),391–396;MarcoPinfari,“ExploringtheTerroristNature ofPoliticalAssassinations”. 53NiallWhelehan,TheDynamiters:IrishNationalismandPoliticalViolenceintheWiderWorld1867‐ 1900(Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2012),77;Clutterbuck“TheProgenitorsof Terrorism”(seenote6above),162‐163. 54Short,TheDynamiteWar(seenote25above),38. 55Ibid,162and229. 56YitzhakShamir,SummingUp:AnAutobiography(London:Widenfeld&Nicholson,1994),8.. 57RichardEnglish,IrishFreedom:TheHistoryofNationalisminIreland(London:Macmillan2006). 58BruceHoffmann,AnonymousSoldiers:TheStruggleforIsrael1917–1947(NewYork:AlfredA. Knopf,2015);DavidFrench,FightingEOKA:TheBritishCounter‐InsurgencyCampaignonCyprus, 1955‐1959(Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,2015);YezidSayigh,ArmedStruggleandtheSearchfor State:ThePalestinianNationalMovement,1949‐1993(Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,1997). 59DanielBessnerandMichaelStauch,“KarlHeinzenandtheIntellectualOriginsofModernTerror”, 152 60Ibid,150‐151. 61DeborahHardy,LandandFreedom:TheOriginsofRussianTerrorsim,1976‐1979,(NewYork: GreenwoodPress,1987),chapter5. 62RichardBachJensen,TheBattleAgainstAnarchistTerrorism:AnInternationalHistory,1878‐1934, (Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,2014),26. 63FromMaytoSeptember1928BhagatSinghpublishedaseriesofarticleshehadwrittenon anarchistthoughtinKirti,thejournaloftheKirtiKisanParty 64KuldipNayar,TheMartyr:BhagatSinghExperimentsinRevolution(NewDelhi:Har‐Anand Publications,2000),70‐73. 65PhilipPomper,“RussianRevolutionaryTerrorism”inMarthaCrenshaw(ed.),TerrorisminContext, (Universitypark,PA:PennsylvaniaStateUniversity,1995),89‐99. 66AnnaGeifman,RevolutionaryTerrorisminRussia,1894‐1917(PrincetonNJ:PrincetonUniversity Press,1993),chapter8andtheepilogue. 67KevinMcDermott,“StalinistTerrorintheComintern:NewPerspectives”,JournalofContemporary History,30,no.1(1995),111‐130;WilliamJ.Chase,EnemieswithintheGates?TheCominternandthe StalinistRepression,1934–1939(NewHaven:YaleUniversityPress,2001). 68MichaelRyan,DecodingAlQaeda’sStrategy:TheDeepBattleAgainstAmerica(NewYork:Columbia UniversityPress,2013),4‐5. 69ETA’srevolutionarysocialiststrandcametodominatetheorganization,butitsfounderslookedto bothMarxist(CubaandVietnam)andnationalist(Ireland,Cyprus,thePalestinianMandate) examplesforinspiration.TeresaWhitfield,EndgameforETA:ElusivePeaceintheBasqueCountry (London:Hurst&Co,2014),40‐42. 70ReportedbyGeorge.A.Crawford,inalettertoEliThayer,4.August1879,publishedasan appendixinG.W.Brown,ReminiscencesofOldJohnBrown:ThrillingIncidentsofBorderLifein Kansas(Rockford,IL:AbrahamE.Smith,1880). 71MaxBoot,InvisibleArmies:AnEpicHistoryofGuerrillaWarfarefromAncientTimestothePresent (NewYorkLiveright,2013),214 72Ibid,217 73KenChowder,“TheFatherofAmericanTerrorism”,AmericanHeritage,51,no.1(February/March 2000),68‐79. 74WalterLaqueur,Terrorism(London:WidenfeldandNicholson,1977),33‐38. 75JeffreyWilliamLewis,TheBusinessofMartyrdom,125 76MiaBloomandJohnHorgan,“MissingTheirMark:TheIRA’sProxyBombCampaign”,inMichaelA. InnesandWilliamBanks(eds.),MakingSenseofProxyWars:States,Surrogates&theUseofForce (Dulles,VA:PotomacBooks,2012),39 77Chowder,“TheFatherofAmericanTerrorism”(seenote73above). 78RichardMitchell,TheSocietyoftheMuslimBrothers(Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,1969),206‐ 207. 30 79Ibid,58‐62 80Hasanal‐Banna,FiveTractsofHasanal‐Banna(1906‐1949):ASelectionfromtheMajmu'atRasa'il al‐Imamal‐Shahid,(Berkeley,CA:UniversityofCaliformiaPress,1978). 81RichardMitchell,TheSocietyoftheMuslimBrothers,67and70‐71 82SayyidQutb,Milestones(Daral‐lim;2007),47‐48;JohnCalvert,SayyidQutbandtheOriginsof RadicalIslamism(NewYork:ColumbiaUniversityPress;2010),225 83JohnCalvert,SayyidQutbandtheOriginsofRadicalIslamism(seenote82above),225. 84Ibid,3and265. 85N.C.AsthanaandAnjaliNirmal,UrbanTerrorism:MythsAndRealities(Jaipur:PointerPublishers, 2009),117 86Calvert,SayyidQutbandtheOriginsofRadicalIslamism(seenote83above),223. 87NaimQassem,Hizbullah:TheStoryfromWithin(London:Saqi,2007),165. 88Rapoport,“SacredTerror”(seenote4above),103‐104;AmiPedahzurandAriePerliger,Jewish TerrorisminIsrael(NewYork:ColumbiaUniversityPress,2009). 89WilliamA.Tidwell,April’65:ConfederateCovertActionintheAmericanCivilWar(Kent,Ohio:Kent StateUniversityPress;1995),206‐212. 90SeeAllenTrelease,WhiteTerror:TheKuKluxKlanConspiracyandSouthernReconstruction(Baton Rouge:LouisianaStateUniversityPress,1971),3‐27. 91DavidC.Rapoport,“Beforethebombstherewerethemobs:Americanexperienceswithterror”,in JeanRosenfeld(ed.),Terrorism,IdentityandLegitimacy:TheFourWavestheoryandpoliticalviolence (London:Routledge,2011),151. 92JamesM.LutzandBrendaJ.Lutz,GlobalTerrorism(London:Routledge,2004),171‐174. 93LaqueurTerrorism(seenote74above),95‐96. 94MartinEvans,Algeria:France’sUndeclaredWar(Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress),2012,chapter9. 95MichaelBurleigh,SmallWars,FarawayPlaces:TheGenesisoftheModernWorld:1945‐65(London: Macmillan,2013),329. 96DonatellaDellaPorta,InstitutionalResponsestoTerrorism:TheItalianCase,inAlexP.Schmidand RonaldD.Crelinsten(eds)WesternResponsestoTerrorism(London:FrankCass,1993).Seealso AnnaCentoBull,ItalianNeofascism:TheStrategyofTensionandthePoliticsofNonreconciliation (Oxford:BerghahnBooks,2011). 97ClaireSterling,TheTerrorNetwork:TheSecretWarofInternationalTerrorism(NewYork,NY:Holt, RinehartandWinston;1981),1 98HeidiBeirichetal,TerrorFromtheRight(Montgomery,AL:SouthernPovertyLawCenter,2012) 99WalterGriffin,“‘Dirtybomb’partsfoundinslainman’shome”,BangorDailyNews,10February 2009,http://bangordailynews.com/2009/02/10/politics/report‐dirty‐bomb‐parts‐found‐in‐slain‐ mans‐home/accessed26July2015 100GeorgeMichael,LoneWolfTerrorandtheRiseofLeaderlessResistance(Nashville,TN:Vanderbilt UniversityPress,2012),39‐41,111. 101DougStanglinandMelanieEversley,SuspectinCharlestonchurchrampagereturnstoSouth Carolina,USAToday,19June2015. 102NOU2012:14,Rapportfra22.juli‐kommisjonen(Oslo:Departementenesservicesenter,2012). 103JessicaStern,“TheProteanEnemy”,ForeignAffairs,82,no.4(July/August2003),27‐40. 104Rapoport,“Beforethebombstherewerethemobs”(seenote91above). 105DavidKilcullen,OutoftheMountains:TheComingAgeoftheUrbanGuerrilla(Oxford:Oxford UniversityPress,2013).
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