Globalization and Emerging Technologies: The Example of Nanotechnology Ishwar K. Puri* Department of Engineering Science and Mechanics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24060, USA Abstract: Despite uncertainties in predicting their economic and societal impact, due to their market potential, emerging technologies offer emerging economies with the promise of leapfrog platforms for new industries and possibilities for more established economies to maintain their global competitiveness. For instance, nanotechnology is viewed as an enabling and potentially disruptive technology that is both pan‐industrial and convergent, and as one that could provide major improvements such as inexpensive sustainable energy, environmental remediation, radical advances in medical diagnosis and treatment, and more powerful IT capabilities. Access to emerging technologies in the global society depends upon the invested resources, the local level of education and workforce training, and the prevalent knowledge infrastructure. Due to political factors, the local development of these technologies necessitates both nation‐specific, and regional and global strategies. Prediction, uncertainty and potential Predictions of the impact of emerging technologies, other than for near market applications, involve many uncertainties (Anton, Silberglitt et al. 2001). Current evaluations of the impacts of nanotechnology are located on a continuum extending from incremental progress to a radical disjunction from current science and technology. Some currently envisioned applications of nanotechnology which are seen as technically feasible may never be realized, while unanticipated future breakthroughs may lead to the rapid development of applications that are currently unforeseen. In the case of textiles it is argued that major breakthroughs will come only in the long run, beyond 2015‐2020 (Kaounides, Yu et al. 2007). The oft‐quoted figure of a nanotechnology market worth $1 trillion obscures discussions on the high financial risks that investors face when investing in an emerging technology. This distortion is rarely acknowledged and the figure is continuously used to justify and rationalize the financial potentials of nanotechnology (Ebeling 2008). So, why play in such an environment? Government policies for nanotechnology more often resemble an embrace of imagination rather than systematic strategic decision‐making based on the value of their own effort, competitors’ efforts, and the environment in which these occur. The reason for such exuberance is simple. Nanotechnology is an enabling and potentially disruptive technology that is both pan‐industrial and convergent. For instance, although the realization of the full potential of nanomedicine may be years or decades away, recent advances in nanotechnology‐related drug delivery, diagnosis, and drug * Address correspondence to [email protected]. I. K. Puri: Globalization and Emerging Technologies development are beginning to change the landscape of medicine, e.g., through site‐ specific targeted drug delivery and personalized medicine (Morrow Jr, Bawa et al. 2007). Thus, nanotechnology is viewed as having the potential to provide emerging economies with leapfrog technology platforms through the formation of new industries. Established economies likewise see nanotechnology as an emerging economic wave that will help retain their competitive advantage (Romig Jr, Baker et al. 2007). Indeed, the dynamic is such that if, in 2006 the US had suddenly closed all its university centers and simultaneously Japan all its governmental research institutes in nanotechnology, those actions would altogether have affected only 11% of institutions worldwide. The global nanotechnology‐related institutional growth is so strong that such a closure would have been compensated for by growth through new nanotechnology institutions in less than three months (Schummer 2007). Past and present discussions of nuclear energy, agricultural biotechnology and embryonic stem cells illustrate that nanotechnology might raise societal concerns that arise not because of the underlying science or engineering but due to the specific applications involved (Mosterín 2002; Dowling 2004). For instance, while the scientific basis could be similar, the medical uses of biotechnology generally raise different concerns from those that arise from agricultural applications (Gaskell and Bauer 2001). Since the term “nanotechnology” encompasses a wider range of basic science, methods and engineering approaches than does biotechnology, it is likely therefore to lead to a much larger set of potential applications. Fortunately, most issues arising from their use and applications will most likely not be new or unique to nanotechnologies (Wood, Jones et al. 2003). An example of improvements through nanotechnology is the promise of smaller, cheaper, and more ubiquitous sensing devices (Roco and Bainbridge 2003). These devices could be linked over networks to provide greater safety, security, and better healthcare. However, these could also be used to limit individual or group privacy through covert surveillance, for collecting and distributing personal information without consent, and for concentrating access to this information to enable policing, profiling, and social sorting (Bainbridge 2003). Here, it is important to note that the newness of a technology does not itself offer evidence against its potential uses (Dowling 2004). In many cases, the underlying legal and ethical issues raised by such developments are similar to those our society has already faced. For instance, a discussion of privacy issues involving nanosensors is similar to one about the use of radio frequency identification (RFID) technology to replace bar codes. Access and collaboration: Who will benefit and who might lose out It has been predicted that nanotechnology will provide major improvements, such as inexpensive sustainable energy, environmental remediation, radical advances in medical diagnosis and treatment, and more powerful IT capabilities (Roco and Bainbridge 2001; Roco and Bainbridge 2003). Since these possibilities 2 I. K. Puri: Globalization and Emerging Technologies have profound implications for the global society and international economy, the important question to ask is who will benefit and, more crucially, who might lose out (Dowling 2004)? For instance, the appropriate ownership of intellectual property is advantageous (Thursby and Thursby 2003), but experience in genetics shows that patents that are too broad or do not strictly meet the criteria of novelty can work against the public good (Dowling 2004). One concern is that broad patents could be granted for emerging technologies that could stifle broad global innovation by hindering access to basic information. Global competition for emerging technologies, such as thorough stem cell, proteomic, and nanotechnology research, arises from the desire to reap advantages from a science that promises much in comparison to the little it has already delivered. However, globalization and the international movement of the capital, labor and materials necessary for successful innovation in these fields makes this global competition a complex political task (Salter 2008). It is not universally easy to pursue research and development (R&D) in emerging technologies though global collaborations. While knowledge and products do not know borders, the policies and regulatory frameworks of various countries related to R&D are still fragmented (Roco 2008). Moreover, embargos and government policies can hinder technical cooperation. It has become more difficult in the post 9/11 world, to exchange R&D work for many emerging technologies across international boundaries. Material transfer across international borders requires extensive and sometimes cumbersome protocols (Banerjee 2007). This, along with other political factors, necessitates both nation‐specific, and regional and global cooperation strategies to invest and develop in emerging technologies. Investment Nations that enjoy long‐term economic competitiveness have typically higher levels of investment R&D. They are able to support research institutions that produce world‐class talent and an industrial sector that maximizes the potential of these individuals to produce world‐class products and services (Nature Review Microbiology Editorial 2008). Developed nations typically have the necessary infrastructure for scientific innovation already in place so that the role of the state is simply to find methods to support it. In contrast, for many developing nations the difference between the ambition to become a global player and its realization is considerable. Emerging economies are also much less advantageously placed in their access to the global financial markets to enable early stage development of nascent technologies (Salter 2008). Large R&D budgets help but offer no foolproof guarantee for breakthrough innovation. For instance, Lucent and Motorola did not foresee and react effectively to a rival competitor Nokia (Boutellier, Gassmann et al. 2000; Fallah and Lechler 2008). Nonetheless, at a national level, R&D investment is key for a nation’s effective global competitiveness in emerging technologies, since immediate access to basic scientific advances also provides an initial market advantage. The emerging economies recognize this. In China, R&D spending rose to over $87 billion in 2007, third worldwide behind Japan ($139 billion) and the United States ($344 billion) 3 I. K. Puri: Globalization and Emerging Technologies (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development 2007). Thus, some Asian nations have rapidly advanced their nanotechnology research in recent years (Kostoff, Koytcheff et al. 2007). For companies, emerging technologies form the basis for strategic experiments that require development of new knowledge and capabilities and respond to nonlinear shifts in the industry environment (Katila 2002; Katila and Ahuja 2002; Govindarajan and Trimble 2005). In 1970 complex technologies, such as for aerospace and telecommunications applications, comprised 43% of the 30 most valuable world goods exports, but by 1996 they represented 84% of those goods (United Nations 1975, 1996; Kash and Rycroft 2002). Innovation networks involving alliances and agreements deal with uncertainty, e.g., the difficulty of predicting exactly which combinations of knowledge, skills and know‐how will be needed, faster and with more flexibility (Rycroft and Kash 2004). Nonetheless, while globalization is on the rise, the national component of the organization and work of scientific teaching and research in most cases remains relatively insular (Shinn 2002). We thus note the potential for international innovation partnerships to overcome various pitfalls, e.g., delayed participation, sticking with the familiar, reluctance to fully commit, and lack of persistence (Day and Schoemaker 2000), if these barriers are overcome. Education and workforce training Qualified workers are required to develop and handle new knowledge, to integrate it, and to promote innovation. Creating a pipeline for such workers through an education infrastructure that is also informed about the synergy between the knowledge society (intellectual drive), the industrial society (to assist productive means), and the civil society (civic and personal well being) is essential. The stakeholders involved in the education infrastructure must have a visionary function, since they are responsible for detecting early signs of change, developing scenarios, real‐time technology assessments, and must be committed to long‐term planning keeping human development in perspective (Roco 2008). They must be able to facilitate technological innovation and accommodate the trend toward greater complexity. Indeed, income inequality between individuals and nations is attributed to the result of differences in knowledge and skills, since increasingly knowledge rather than ownership of capital generates new wealth (Reich 1991; Drucker 1993; Spring 2008). Thus students must be educated with skills for the global workplace so that they can continually adapt frequent technological innovations (World Bank 2003; Monahan 2005; Spring 2008). A national commitment for developing a knowledge‐based economy is more easily maintained during a period of economic growth. When economies enter a period of reduced growth, the more difficult circumstances invariably force governments to reassess their investments in education and research, and hence there is always the risk that committed funds could be diverted to other sectors. There is also the potential for a shift in funding policy to provide more support to education and research that has an obvious economic impact at the expense of fundamental education and curiosity‐driven, basic research, which is the basis of emerging technologies (Nature Review Microbiology Editorial 2008). An informed 4 I. K. Puri: Globalization and Emerging Technologies and engaged stakeholder constituency can be energized to prevent major downsides, since specialized knowledge can become a very short‐term resource. Learning resources through the education infrastructure on the other hand are key to innovation. Such workers provide the economy with an ability to adapt to changing economic and technological conditions and reinforce competitive advantages (Rycroft and Kash 2004). From 1990 to 2002 the patents granted to all U.S. overseas subsidiaries in Europe fell from about 70% to 65%, while in China and India this proportion grew from 0.1% to 2.3%, reflecting both market interest and improvements in the science and engineering (S&E) infrastructure in these nations (Hicks 2004). Thus, emerging economies that seek to foster innovation are better served by investing in their public S&E institutions rather than enhancing foreign manufacturing activity (Hegde and Hicks 2008). There is some evidence of the nascent formalization of globalized R&D partnerships involving S&E institutions and industry (Cleave 2008). Knowledge infrastructure Universities are critical sites for the initial development of emerging technologies due to their strengths in conducting basic research. Worldwide, universities accounted for 70.5% of nanotechnology research articles from 1990‐ 2004 with a corresponding 22.2% share for public research institutes. The initial role of the private sector was more limited. It was the source of 7.3% of such articles, although its contribution was more prominent in the United States (12.4%) and Japan (12.3%), indicating industry leadership in the area from both nations (Miyazaki and Islam 2007). Unlike university budgets or numbers of graduates, the number of articles produced by an economy is a partial measure that does not inflate the efforts of unproductive people and resources. Thus, it reflects the research base of a national system of innovation based on its knowledge infrastructure (Hegde and Hicks 2008). Technological innovation arises due to the interactions and feedback between university researchers, industrial product developers, intermediary organizations, and end‐users (Hessels and van Lente 2008). Increasingly, innovation in our knowledge‐based societies occurs through reflexive communications between universities, industries, and governmental agencies that form a triple helix, and the hybrid organizations that emerge at their interfaces. Although, like business, scientific specialties also operate differently in different national institutions, these new mechanisms integrate market pull and technology push. Regardless of national differences, basic research is being increasingly linked to useful applications through a series of intermediate processes such as government‐initiated programs that facilitate university–industry interactions in the triple helix. The configuration provides synergistic puzzles that participants, analysts, and policymakers who participate in the helix must solve (Etzkowitz and Leydesdorff 2000). Thus, an “endless frontier” of basic research, one that has only long‐term practical results expected from it, is no longer funded as an end in itself, 5 I. K. Puri: Globalization and Emerging Technologies but is instead replaced by an “endless transition” model in which basic research is linked to utilization through a series of intermediate processes that are typically stimulated by the government (Callon 1998). This confluence arises from the third mission of universities: in addition to their traditional roles in teaching and research they must also make contributions to economic growth. The lack of synergy between universities, industry and business is a serious detriment for the development of scientific and technical collaborations, and thus innovation (Archibugi and Iammarino 1999). Such a synergy leads to the formation of an innovating region in which in which firm‐formation is tied to a research base. In the US, following early bets on the futures of the electronics and computer industries, Stanford and MIT made similar investments in molecular biology, thereby becoming loci for the biotechnology industry just a few decades later (Etzkowitz and Klofsten 2005). Thus, successful triple helix examples that have been critical for the market development of emerging technologies in the United States include Silicon Valley in California and the Boston Corridor that are adjacent to these universities. Summary Despite uncertainties, investments in emerging technologies are attractive for both developed and emerging economies. These technologies offer emerging economies with a promise of leapfrog industries while more established economies see the potential to retain their competitive advantage. Global competition for emerging technologies leads to the question of access, i.e., who benefits and who loses out? 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