Environmental Policy:
Limits of Science and the
Value of Public Discourse
Jan Zientek
Senior Program Coordinator
Rutgers Cooperative Extension of Essex County
621‐A Eagle Rock Avenue
v: 973‐228‐3179
Roseland, NJ 07068
f: 973‐364‐5261
[email protected]
Key Concepts
The Scientific Method
Uncertainty
Statistical Analysis
Data and samples
Normal Distribution
Type I and Type II Errors
Political Use of Science
Public Participation in Policy
What is Science?
• a process for evaluating empirical knowledge
• a way of knowing about the world
• the organized body of knowledge gained by
the scientific method
• power
• Science is just one way of knowing and
describing the world.
• Historically humans have come up with other
ways of understanding or explaining the world:
– Superstition
– Myth
– Magic
– Art
– Faith
Science Does Not Know
Good From Bad
• Human values determine
whether a policy objective or
outcome is good or bad.
• Science allows us to look
into the future
–sort of …. by Hypothosizing
We do not theorize
We Hypothesize
What is an Hypothesis?
• An hypothesis is a preliminary or tentative explanation by the
researcher of what the researcher considers the outcome of
an investigation will be.
• It is an informed/educated guess.
Hypothesis Testing
• A null hypothesis states that the results observed in a study
are no different from what might have occurred as a random
event.
• In statistics, the only way of supporting your hypothesis is to
refute the null hypothesis.
Science is by its nature
uncertain
A scientist does not expect to ever
prove anything with 100% certainty
We give odds!
What Do We Need for An
Experiment?
•
•
•
•
•
•
A question or observation
A Hypothesis
Design and procedure
Data
Analysis
Conclusions
A Simple Experiment
• Hypothesis: the loss of my socks is due to alien abduction
This is Data!
Statistics Helps Us See
The Normal Distribution
Also know as the
“Bell Curve”
Observation A and Observation B
Sample Size and the
Appearance of Normalcy
• http://people.ucalgary.ca/~nosal/src/Applets/GraphNorm/
GraphNorm.html
• http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/NormalDistrib
ution/?version=skip1&browser=unknown
Sample Size and the Appearance of
Normalcy
normal distribution.wmv
http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/NormalDistribution/?version
=skip1&browser=unknown
• Type I ( alpha) Error:
Rejecting a null hypothesis
that is true
• Type II (beta) Error:
Accepting a null hypothesis
that is false
Who pays the costs of an
enviromental policy?
• Type I error: producer pays
• Type II error: consumer pays
SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Smoking
Causes Lung Cancer, Heart Disease,
Emphysema, And May Complicate Pregnancy.
• The U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA) has established a drinkingwater standard of 10 milligrams per liter
(mg/L) nitrate as nitrogen (U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, 1995).
MiracleGro
•
Total Nitrogen: 15%
9.2% urea nitrogen
5.8% ammonium nitrogen
Available phosphate: 30%
Boron: .02%
Soluble Potash: 15%
Copper: .07%
Iron: .15%
Manganese: .05%
Molybdenum: .00005%
Zinc: .06%
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Copper
Boron
Iron
Manganese
Molybedenum
Nitrate
Nitrite
Phosphate
Zinc
1.0 mg/L
0.001 mg/L
0.3 mg/L
0.05 mg/L
0.003 mg/L
10 mg/L
1 mg/L
5 mg/L
5 mg/L
What is Science’s Role in
Society?
• Discovery
• Description
• Explanation
• “Predict” future effects
Antarctica
Science expands our
perspective of the world
Science is NEVER Absolutely Certain
Scientists UNDERSTAND
and ACCEPT disagreement
as the STRENGTH of
science
Scientific Controversies
• Cigarettes causing
cancer
• Cold Fusion
• Ulcers
• Love Canal
•
•
•
•
Floridated H2O
Spotted Owl
Global Warming
Avian Flu
Is Science Objective?
Favoring Objectivity
• Peer review
• Open process
• Replication of
experiments
Obstacles to Objectivity
• Source of Funding
• Personal beliefs
• Ambition
Science, because it is internal
to society, can not absolutely
be free of bias.
Scientists are Human
•
•
•
•
They make mistakes
They miss things
They have personal biases
They tire, get jealous, lie, cheat and steal
(sounds like some politicians, no?)
Science Is Used
Politically
• Uncertainty can be used to
mobilize political support for a
policy
• EPA Tightens Pollution
Standards
But Agency Ignored Advisers' Guidance
• By Juliet Eilperin
• Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, March 13, 2008
• Administrator Stephen L. Johnson also said he would push
Congress to rewrite the nearly 37-year-old Clean Air Act to
allow regulators to take into consideration the cost and
feasibility of controlling pollution when making decisions about
air quality, something that is currently prohibited by the law. In
2001, the Supreme Court ruled that the government needed
to base the ozone standard strictly on protecting public health,
with no regard to cost.
Obama Puts His Own Spin on Mix of
Science With Politics
(NY Times 03/09/09)
• President Obama’s directive to “guarantee
scientific integrity” in policy making will not
completely divorce science from politics.
With all of its problems, how has
science become so intergral to
environmental policy?
• It allows us to explain and manage
uncertainty
Why Engage the Public?
Public Discourse
•
iscovers wider range of problems and
solutions
•
ends legitimacy and authority to policy
•
reates robust policy
•
Environmental Policy
• Value based decisions
• Technical solutions implement political
choices
• Attempt to manage in the face of
uncertainty
• Determines who, when and how COST
is paid