Brigham Young University BYU ScholarsArchive International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software - San Diego, California, USA - June 2014 Jun 17th, 9:00 AM - 10:20 AM Predicting citation counts of environmental modelling papers Barbara J. Robson CSIRO Land and Water, [email protected] Aurélie Mousquès École des Mines d'Alès, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/iemssconference Part of the Civil Engineering Commons, Data Storage Systems Commons, Environmental Engineering Commons, Hydraulic Engineering Commons, and the Other Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons Barbara J. Robson and Aurélie Mousquès, "Predicting citation counts of environmental modelling papers" ( June 17, 2014). International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. Paper 14. http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/iemssconference/2014/Stream-G/14 This Event is brought to you for free and open access by the Civil and Environmental Engineering at BYU ScholarsArchive. It has been accepted for inclusion in International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software by an authorized administrator of BYU ScholarsArchive. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ,QWHUQDWLRQDO(QYLURQPHQWDO0RGHOOLQJDQG6RIWZDUH6RFLHW\L(06V WK,QWO&RQJUHVVRQ(QY0RGHOOLQJDQG6RIWZDUH6DQ'LHJR&$86$ 'DQLHO3$PHV1LJHO:74XLQQDQG$QGUHD(5L]]ROL(GV KWWSZZZLHPVVRUJVRFLHW\LQGH[SKSLHPVVSURFHHGLQJV 3UHGLFWLQJFLWDWLRQFRXQWVRIHQYLURQPHQWDO PRGHOOLQJSDSHUV D DE %DUEDUD-5REVRQ DQG$XUpOLH0RXVTXqV EDUEDUDUREVRQ#FVLURDX&6,52/DQGDQG:DWHU*32%R[&DQEHUUD$&7$XVWUDOLD E DXUHOLHPRXVTXHVGLWFDEDQRW#PLQHVDOHVRUJeFROHGHV0LQHVG¶$OqV)UDQFH D $EVWUDFW:HDVVHVVHGDOOSDSHUVSXEOLVKHGLQWZRNH\HQYLURQPHQWDOPRGHOOLQJMRXUQDOVLQWR GHWHUPLQHWKHGHJUHHWRZKLFKWKHFLWDWLRQFRXQWVRIWKHSDSHUVFRXOGEHSUHGLFWHGZLWKRXWFRQVLGHULQJ WKH SDSHU¶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¶V VFLHQWLILF LPSDFW DQG LV RIWHQ WDNHQ DV D SUR[\ IRU WKH SDSHU¶V TXDOLW\ &LWDWLRQ FRXQWV DUH DOVR WKH EDVLVIRUDZLGHUDQJHRIRWKHUPHWULFVWKDWDUHLQFUHDVLQJO\EHLQJXVHGDQGVRPHWLPHVPLVXVHGWR DVVHVVWKHTXDOLW\RIMRXUQDOVDQGWKHSHUIRUPDQFHRISXEOLVKLQJVFLHQWLVWVHJ $PH] *DVWHU DQG*DVWHU.HOO\DQG-HQQLRQV/D]DULGLV9LQNOHU &LWDWLRQVUHFHLYHGE\SDSHUVKDYHEHHQVKRZQWREHLQIOXHQFHGE\GLVFLSOLQDU\GRPDLQ,JOHVLDVDQG 3HFKDUURPDQJHQGHUVHQLRULW\DQGVWDWXUHRIWKHDXWKRUV5RVVLWHU6O\GHUHWDO :X DQG :ROIUDP SUHVWLJH RI WKHLU LQVWLWXWLRQ :X DQG :ROIUDP MRXUQDO RI SXEOLFDWLRQ HJ6O\GHUHWDOFRXQWU\RIUHVLGHQFHRIDXWKRUV:RQJDQG.RNNRDQGZKHWKHURUQRW WKHDUWLFOH+LWFKFRFNDQGWKHXQGHUO\LQJGDWD3LZRZDUDQG9LVLRQDUHDYDLODEOHRQDQ RSHQDFFHVVEDVLV /RQJHUSDSHUVHVSHFLDOO\UHYLHZDUWLFOHVDQGRWKHUVWKDWWKHPVHOYHVFLWHPDQ\UHIHUHQFHVKDYHEHHQ IRXQG WR JDUQHU PRUH FLWDWLRQV LQ HFRORJ\ /HLPX DQG .RULFKHYD E ELRORJ\ )DZFHWW DQG +LJJLQVRQ WKH HQYLURQPHQWDO VFLHQFHV 9DQFOD\ DQG RWKHU ILHOGV $OH (EUDKLP HW DO 'LGHJDKDQG7KHOZDOO 6HYHUDO VWXGLHV 'LGHJDK DQG 7KHOZDOO *D]QL DQG 'LGHJDK /HLPX DQG .RULFKHYD E KDYH IRXQG WKDW SDSHUV ZLWK PXOWLSOH DXWKRUV DUH PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ FLWHG WKDQ VROHDXWKRUHG SDSHUVHVSHFLDOO\ZKHQWKLVLQYROYHVLQWHUQDWLRQDOFROODERUDWLRQ'LGHJDKDQG7KHOZDOO*ODQ]HO /HLPXDQG.RULFKHYDD6RRU\DPRRUWK\ )DZFHWW DQG +LJJLQVRQ DVVHVVLQJ WKH FLWDWLRQ FRXQWV RI SDSHUV SXEOLVKHG LQ OHDGLQJ ELRORJ\MRXUQDOVLQIRXQGWKDWSDSHUVZLWKDKLJKGHQVLW\RIHTXDWLRQVLQWKHPDLQWH[WUHFHLYHG IHZHU FLWDWLRQV WKDQ RWKHU SDSHUV HDFK HTXDWLRQ SHU SDJH LQ WKH PDLQ WH[W RI WKH SDSHU ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D UHGXFWLRQ LQ WKH QXPEHU RI SDSHUV 7KH DXWKRUV FRQFOXGHG WKDW HTXDWLRQV UHGXFHWKHDFFHVVLELOLW\RIWKHSDSHUWRDZLGHUHDGHUVKLS7KLVLVDILQGLQJWKDWPD\EHRIFRQFHUQWR PRGHOOHUVDVHTXDWLRQVDUHWKHWRROVRIRXUWUDGH(QYLURQPHQWDOPRGHOOLQJLVDVSHFLDOLVHGGLVFLSOLQH Page 1390 %-5REVRQHWDO9DU\LQJWKHWHPSRUDOUHVROXWLRQRIULYHUVHGLPHQWDQGQXWULHQWERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQV«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x &LWDWLRQ FRXQW WKH QXPEHU RI WLPHV WKH SDSHU KDG EHHQ FLWHG DW WKH WLPH RI DVVHVVPHQW -XO\$XJXVWDVLQGH[HGE\:HERI6FLHQFH x 3DJHFRXQWWKHQXPEHURIMRXUQDOSDJHVWDNHQXSE\WKHDUWLFOH x $XWKRUFRXQWWKHQXPEHURISHRSOHVKDULQJDXWKRUVKLSFUHGLW x 5HIHUHQFHFRXQWWKHQXPEHURIDUWLFOHVLQFOXGHGLQWKHSDSHU¶VUHIHUHQFHOLVW x $EVWUDFWOHQJWKWKHQXPEHURIOLQHVLQWKHDEVWUDFW x 'LIIHUHQWLDOHTXDWLRQV7KHQXPEHURIGLIIHUHQWLDOSDUWLDOGLIIHUHQWLDORULQWHJUDO HTXDWLRQVLQ WKHPDLQWH[WRIWKHPDQXVFULSW x 7RWDOHTXDWLRQVWKHWRWDOQXPEHURIHTXDWLRQVLQWKHPDLQWH[WRIWKHPDQXVFULSW x -RXUQDOWKHMRXUQDOLQZKLFKWKHSDSHUZDVSXEOLVKHG(06RU(FR0RG x &RQWLQHQW7KHJHRJUDSKLFUHJLRQLQZKLFKWKHUHDOZRUOGDSSOLFDWLRQLVORFDWHG x 'LVFLSOLQH WKH GRPDLQ RI HQYLURQPHQWDO VFLHQFH RU PRGHOOLQJ WR ZKLFK WKH SDSHU ZDV PRVW UHOHYDQW (DFK SDSHU ZDV DVVLJQHG WR RQH RI WKH IROORZLQJ FDWHJRULHV DTXDWLF HFRORJ\ SDSHUV WHUUHVWULDO HFRORJ\ SDSHUV WKHRUHWLFDO HFRORJ\ K\GURORJ\ K\GURG\QDPLFV ZDWHU TXDOLW\ PHWHRURORJ\ PRGHO HYDOXDWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV XQFHUWDLQW\DQDO\VLVWHFKQLTXHVPRGHOYLVXDOLVDWLRQDQGWUDQVGLVFLSOLQDU\ x 6FHQDULRV758(ZKHQWKHSDSHUGHVFULEHVDSSOLFDWLRQRIDPRGHOWRPDQDJHPHQWRUFKDQJH VFHQDULRV)$/6(RWKHUZLVH x 3HUIRUPDQFH PHWULFV 758( ZKHQ WKH SDSHU UHSRUWV TXDQWLILFDWLRQV RI WKH PRGHO¶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¶V ZHEVLWH DW KWWSZZZEFIXVFHGXa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age 1391 %-5REVRQHWDO9DU\LQJWKHWHPSRUDOUHVROXWLRQRIULYHUVHGLPHQWDQGQXWULHQWERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQV« JDPFLWDWLRQVAa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¶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age 1392 %-5REVRQHWDO9DU\LQJWKHWHPSRUDOUHVROXWLRQRIULYHUVHGLPHQWDQGQXWULHQWERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQV«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age 1393 %-5REVRQHWDO9DU\LQJWKHWHPSRUDOUHVROXWLRQRIULYHUVHGLPHQWDQGQXWULHQWERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQV« 7KH *$0 DSSURDFK SURGXFHG VLPLODU UHVXOWV SDJH FRXQW MRXUQDO RI SXEOLFDWLRQ WKH QXPEHU RI GLIIHUHQWLDO HTXDWLRQV WKH QXPEHU RI RWKHU HTXDWLRQV DQG WKH OHQJWK RI WKH DEVWUDFW ZHUH WKH PRVW VLJQLILFDQW FRYDULDWHV FRPELQLQJ WR SURGXFH D PRGHO ZLWK DQ DGMXVWHG U RI 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ KRZHYHU WKLV PRGHO DQG DOO *$0 DQG */0 YDULDQWV ZH WULHG IRU WKLV GDWDVHW SURGXFHG KHWHURVFHGDVWLFUHVLGXDOVLQGLFDWLQJWKDWLWFDQQRWEHWUXVWHG )LJXUH 3UHGLFWHGYVREVHUYHGFLWDWLRQFRXQWIURP WKH UDQGRP IRUHVWPRGHO 6ROLGOLQHLQGLFDWHVD UHODWLRQVKLS)LOOHGFLUFOHV LQGLFDWHVDPSOHVLQFOXGHGLQWKHWUDLQLQJGDWDVHWRSHQFLUFOHVLQFOXGH REVHUYDWLRQVKHOGEDFNIRUWHVWLQJ 7DEOH([DPSOHUHVXOWVRI:LOFR[RQ0DQQ:KLWQH\WHVWVIRUVLJQLILFDQFHRIYDULRXVVWDWHPHQWV )LQGLQJ SYDOXH 3DSHUVZLWKILYHRUPRUHDXWKRUVKDGKLJKHUFLWDWLRQFRXQWVWKDQSDSHUVZLWKIHZHU WKDQILYHDXWKRUV 3DSHUVUHSRUWLQJPRGHOVDSSOLHGWRORFDWLRQVLQ$VLDKDGORZHUFLWDWLRQFRXQWVWKDQ SDSHUVUHSRUWLQJDSSOLFDWLRQVLQ1RUWK$PHULFD$XVWUDOLDRU(XURSH 3DSHUV UHSRUWLQJ DSSOLFDWLRQV LQ $QWDUFWLFD RU WKH $UFWLF KDG ORZHU FLWDWLRQ FRXQWV WKDQSDSHUVUHSRUWLQJDSSOLFDWLRQV$XVWUDOLDRU(XURSH 3DSHUV WKDW UHSRUWHG DSSOLFDWLRQ WR VFHQDULRV KDG KLJKHU FLWDWLRQ FRXQWV WKDQ SDSHUVWKDWGLGQRW 3DSHUVWKDWSXEOLVKHGSHUIRUPDQFHPHWULFVKDGKLJKHUFLWDWLRQFRXQWVWKDQSDSHUV WKDWGLGQRW 3DSHUVRISDJHVRUPRUHKDGKLJKHUFLWDWLRQFRXQWVWKDQSDSHUVRIOHVVWKDQ SDJHV Page 1394 %-5REVRQHWDO9DU\LQJWKHWHPSRUDOUHVROXWLRQRIULYHUVHGLPHQWDQGQXWULHQWERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQV« 3DSHUVRIEHWZHHQDQGSDJHVKDGKLJKHUFLWDWLRQFRXQWVWKDQSDSHUVRIOHVV WKDQSDJHVWKHVKRUWHVW 3DSHUVLQWKHWRSZLWKUHVSHFWWRQXPEHURIUHIHUHQFHVFLWHGLHWKRVHFLWLQJ RUPRUHUHIHUHQFHVKDGKLJKHUFLWDWLRQFRXQWVWKDQSDSHUVLQWKHQH[W 3DSHUV LQ WKH QH[W TXDUWLOH LH WKRVH FLWLQJ EHWZHHQ DQG UHIHUHQFHV KDG KLJKHU FLWDWLRQ FRXQWV WKDQ SDSHUV LQ WKH IROORZLQJ WKRVH FLWLQJ EHWZHHQ DQGUHIHUHQFHV 3DSHUVLQWKHERWWRPTXDUWLOHLHWKRVHFLWLQJIHZHUWKDQUHIHUHQFHVKDGKLJKHU FLWDWLRQFRXQWVWKDQWKRVHFLWLQJEHWZHHQDQGUHIHUHQFHV 3DSHUV WKDW LQFOXGH QR GLIIHUHQWLDO RU LQWHJUDO HTXDWLRQV KDG KLJKHU FLWDWLRQ FRXQWV WKDQSDSHUVWKDWGLGLQFOXGHGLIIHUHQWLDORULQWHJUDOHTXDWLRQV 3DSHUVWKDWLQFOXGHGEHWZHHQDQGGLIIHUHQWLDORULQWHJUDOHTXDWLRQVKDGKLJKHU FLWDWLRQFRXQWVWKDQSDSHUVWKDWLQFOXGHGRUPRUHGLIIHUHQWLDORULQWHJUDOHTXDWLRQV &21&/86,216$1'5(&200(1'$7,216 7KHVHUHVXOWVVXJJHVWWKDWWKHQXPEHURIFLWDWLRQVWKDWDQHQYLURQPHQWDOPRGHOOLQJMRXUQDOSDSHUZLOO UHFHLYH FDQ WR VRPH H[WHQW EH SUHGLFWHG IURP HDVLO\ TXDQWLILHG DWWULEXWHV RI WKH SDSHU LWVHOI EXW WKDW WKHPDMRULW\RIYDULDWLRQPXVWFRPHIURPRWKHUOHVVTXDQWLILDEOHIDFWRUV7KLVLVUHDVVXULQJDVWKHVH IDFWRUV GRXEWOHVV LQFOXGH TXDOLW\ RI WKH ZRUN QRYHOW\ DQG QHHG IRU WKH UHVHDUFK DQG FODULW\ RI SUHVHQWDWLRQ 3DSHUTXDOLW\LVGLIILFXOWWRDVVHVVREMHFWLYHO\3HUKDSVWKHPRVWVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGPHDVXUHRITXDOLW\LI DYDLODEOH IURP MRXUQDO HGLWLQJ RIILFHV ZRXOG EH WKH VFRUH RXW RI JLYHQ WR HDFK PDQXVFULSW E\ UHYLHZHUVGXULQJWKH UHIHUHHLQJSURFHVV3UHYLRXV ZRUNKRZHYHUKDVIRXQGRQO\D ZHDNFRUUHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ VFRUHV DVVLJQHG E\ PDQXVFULSW DVVHVVRUV DQG FLWDWLRQ FRXQWV RI SDSHUV (\UH:DONHU DQG 6WROHW]VNL 2XU UHVXOWV VKRZ WKDW IDFWRUV DIIHFWLQJ FLWDWLRQ FRXQWV LQ WKH ILHOG RI HQYLURQPHQWDO PRGHOOLQJ DUH EURDGO\VLPLODUWRWKRVHDIIHFWLQJFLWDWLRQFRXQWVLQRWKHUILHOGV$XWKRUVZLVKLQJWRPD[LPLVHFLWDWLRQV RI WKHLU SDSHUV PD\ ZLVK WR FRQVLGHU SXEOLVKLQJ ORQJHU PRUH VXEVWDQWLYH SDSHUV RQ KLJKO\ JHQHUDOLVDEOH WRSLFV ZRUNLQJ ZLWK PXOWLSOH FROODERUDWRUV DQG OLPLWLQJ WKH QXPEHU RI GLIIHUHQWLDO HTXDWLRQVLQFOXGHGLQWKHPDLQWH[WRIWKHSDSHU $ ORQJHU YHUVLRQ RI WKLV SDSHU FRQVLGHULQJ VHYHUDO DGGLWLRQDO SRWHQWLDO SUHGLFWLYH YDULDEOHV DQG DVVHVVLQJWKHUHVXOWVLQPRUHGHSWKLVLQSURJUHVV $&.12:/('*0(176 7KHVHFRQGDXWKRU$XUpOLH0RXVTXqVFRQWULEXWHGWRWKLVSDSHUDVSDUWRIDQLQWHUQVKLSXQGHUWDNHQDW &6,52 DV SDUW RI KHU %DFKHORU RI (QJLQHHULQJ GHJUHH DW WKH eFROH GHV 0LQHV G¶$OqV )UDQFH :H WKDQN 'U $OH[DQGHU =ZDUW IRU WKH VXJJHVWLRQ RI XVLQJ D UDQGRP IRUHVW DSSURDFK IRU DQDO\VLV RI RXU GDWDDQGIRUVWDWLVWLFDODGYLFH 5()(5(1&(6 $OH (EUDKLP 1 6DOHKL + (PEL 0$ +DELEL 7DQKD ) *KROL]DGHK + 6H\HG 0RKDPPDG 0 2UGL$(IIHFWLYHVWUDWHJLHVIRULQFUHDVLQJFLWDWLRQIUHTXHQF\,QWHUQDWLRQDO(GXFDWLRQ6WXGLHV $PH] / &LWDWLRQ 0HDVXUHV DW WKH 0LFUR /HYHO ,QIOXHQFH RI 3XEOLFDWLRQ $JH )LHOG DQG 8QFLWHGQHVV-RXUQDORIWKH$PHULFDQ6RFLHW\IRU,QIRUPDWLRQ6FLHQFHDQG7HFKQRORJ\ 'LGHJDK ) 7KHOZDOO 0 :KLFK IDFWRUV KHOS DXWKRUV SURGXFH WKH KLJKHVW LPSDFW UHVHDUFK" &ROODERUDWLRQMRXUQDODQGGRFXPHQWSURSHUWLHV-RXUQDORI,QIRUPHWULFV Page 1395 %-5REVRQHWDO9DU\LQJWKHWHPSRUDOUHVROXWLRQRIULYHUVHGLPHQWDQGQXWULHQWERXQGDU\FRQGLWLRQV«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age 1396
© Copyright 2026 Paperzz