OPEC Strategy Conference Dossier Chair: Carolyn Ours Crisis Director: Sean Rumage Dear Delegates, It is an honor to invite you to the 21st Virginia International Crisis Simulation, the University of Virginia’s annual collegiate Model United Nations conference. VICS XXI will be held at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville from March 31 to April 3, 2016. VICS offers nineteen innovative and interactive crisis committees, both historical and contemporary. We are committed to expanding the scope of what a crisis committee can do. As I write this letter in early November, our chairs are crafting their committees around topics ranging from the Space Race of the 1950s to a Summit of the American Gun Lobby. We are committed to expanding the scope of what a crisis committee can do, especially in our famous ad-hoc, the Secretary General’s Good Offices, and in our pilot ad-hoc, the Directors General's Good Offices. I can think of no better setting for the conference than the Grounds of the University of Virginia. VICS provides you with opportunities to interact with the University’s rich history and with the many resources it has to offer. For example, on Friday morning, VICS encourages delegates to explore Charlottesville. VICS offers a series of tours of the city's attractions. These events extend discussion outside of committee and they give you the chance to meet members of the International Relations Organization and of the university community. We also invite you to explore Charlottesville, one of the country’s most exciting college towns. VICS hosts four social events in the city, which take you beyond a typical Model UN experience and provide opportunities to get to know delegates outside of committee. I look forward to welcoming you to the University of Virginia and Charlottesville in March. If you have any questions, please reach out to me or the Chargé d’Affaires, Leah Day, [email protected] or by phone at (703) 344-4275. Sincerely, Michael Treves Secretary General VICS XXI 1. Representative of Saudi Arabia: Ali Al-Naimi Formerly the joint president and chief executive of Saudi Aramco, the largest oil company in the world (which is state owned), Ali Al-Naimi is now the Saudi Arabian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources. As the OPEC member with the highest production levels (more than 11m b/d), Saudi Arabia has the most unilateral capacity to affect the oil price through cutting or increasing production. However, with a budget deficit of almost 15% of GDP, Al-Naimi will have to deal with tougher policies at home while also navigating the murky waters of the international oil market. 2. Representative of Iran: Bijan Namdar Zangeneh Considered the top authority on Iranian oil and energy, Zangeneh brings 32 years of post-revolution cabinet experience to his current position as Iranian minister of petroleum. While some parliamentarians in his home government see him as a “relic” of past administrations and are suspicious to his past ties to opposition movements, he remains dedicated to protecting the long-term economic success of Iran through smart management of energy resources. He also serves as head of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF). After the removal of oil sanctions, he hopes to lead Iran in increasing production in the face of financial and infrastructural obstacles, the challenge of regaining its market share, and regional rivalries with Saudi Arabia. 3. Representative of Algeria: Dr. Salah Khebri Recently promoted as the Minister of Energy of Algeria, Khebri formerly served for the Algerian oil and gas giant Sonatrach in a variety of different positions. His experience with the industry extends even further back, however, as he was a lecturer at numerous institutions on subjects such as applied operations research and the oil economy. Algeria is currently expending its limited foreign reserves at a rapid rate, and as one of OPEC’s smaller producers, it is in favor of a higher oil price. 4. Representative of Angola: José Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos Vasconcelos is currently serving in his second nonconsecutive term as Angolan Minister of Petroleum; he also served as President of OPEC for the year 2009. Arriving at his current position following an engineering career with Sonangol, the state-owned oil company, he maintains good relations with other international oil companies and hopes to increase Angola’s oil production through research and exploration. What the nation lacks in infrastructure to transform crude oil into final products, he hopes to make up for in investment in refineries, partnership with countries like Germany, and preparation of the citizen population for petroleum industry careers. His philosophy regarding education and expansion is intended to increase the petroleum share of Angola’s GDP and couple with a growing natural gas sector for economic gain. 5. Representative of Ecuador: Carlos Pareja Yannuzzelli Hailed by Ecuador’s president as the man for the job, Yannuzzelli became the new Minister of Hydrocarbons in November, leaving his post as General Manager of the state-owned EP Petroecuador. Aside from his numerous positions within that organization, he also was the Minister Consul General of Ecuador in Houston, Texas, a city known for its proximity to the recent shale oil boom in the United States. He therefore has firsthand knowledge about the American industry that others do not, and is a source to be trusted on the matters of shale oil. 6. Representative of Indonesia: Sudirman Said Suderman Said is the Energy and Mineral Resources Minister of Indonesia. Before being appointed to his current position, he worked for the state-owned petroleum and energy resources companies, as well as the state-owned weapons manufacturers. He worked to coordinate recovery programs in the wake of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and the Nias earthquake of 2005 through the Agency for the Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of Aceh and Nias. He has faced some controversy among other members of the administration over comments he made regarding possible defamation and backroom dealing. 7. Representative of Iraq: Adil Abd Al-Mahdi A member of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council – a powerful Shi’a party – that was based in Iran for a period of time, Al-Mahdi was a Vice President of Iraq as well as the Finance Minister in the Interim government. Once coming within one vote of being nominated to be Iraq’s prime minister, he is now the Minister of Oil of a nation that has been torn apart ethnically and militarily for much of the last decade. With ISIS and Kurdish groups fighting for control of oilfields in the north of the country, Iraq has been the center of (to this point largely unfounded) speculations of supply shocks and will likely continue to be so into the future. 8. Representative of Kuwait: Anas Khaled Al-Saleh Anas Al Saleh served as both Kuwaiti Minister of Finance and Minister of Commerce and Industry before assuming his current position of Deputy Prime Minister in January of last year. He has also shown a commitment to regional economic growth through his work with the Islamic Development Bank, IMF, and African Development Bank. His innovative and transparent approach to oil policy was initially received with shock by the Kuwaiti people, but he believes that a conservative policy of reserve maintenance and deficit spending will have prepared Kuwait well for a climate of rising oil prices. Hundreds of development plans are in the works for the coming year, including increased production and job creation in the banking sector. His recognition of the need for foreign investment and the subsequent creation of the KDIPA have demonstrated a commitment to improving long-term trade and investment strategies. 9. Representative of Libya: Abdourhman Ataher Al-Ahirish Prior to being the representative of Libya, Al-Ahirish was OPEC’s President, a role he held for one year, as is the custom term in the organization. Currently holding the post of Vice Prime Minister of Corporations in the Libyan government, Al-Ahirish owes his position as delegate to the OPEC decision in 2014 to recognize the government of Abdullah al-Thinni, following the lead of the United Nations. Of course, that doesn’t mean all is fine and dandy in the Libyan oil market – Libya has been exempted from participating in production cut decisions in recent meetings since its production has already decreased so much since the overthrow of Muammar Qaddafi. 10. Representative of Nigeria: Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu As of November 2015, Kachikwu has served as Minister of State for Petroleum, stepping down from his position as OPEC president at the end of November. Prior to his public service, Kachikwu served as Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and worked for both Exxon Mobil Africa and Texaco Nigeria Limited. He has transitioned from the private to public sector with a renewed dedication to government transparency and investment. Nigeria is Africa’s largest oil producer, but despite the fact that 90% of its GDP comes from oil production, there remains an oil shortage, caused by its need to export crude and reimport refined products. This has caused public unrest and criticism of the previous presidential administration. Kachikwu has recognized the importance of large-scale international cooperation in addressing the current oil crisis and was one of the first to call for an OPEC emergency session. 11. Representative of Qatar: Mohammed Bin Saleh Al-Sada Currently the Minister of Energy and Industry of Qatar, Al Sada has previously been affiliated with Qatar Petroleum, RasGas liquefied natural gas, and Qatar Chemical Company, among others. Natural gas is the future for this small gulf country, since it contains the third-largest natural gas fields in the world. After gas and oil prices were decoupled following the Japanese earthquake in 2011, Qatar stands to weather the storm of low oil prices fairly well. However, with the 2022 FIFA World Cup preparations already underway, there is a limit to how long the country will want the oil price to remain low. 12. Representative of the United Arab Emirates: Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei Al Mazrouei serves as Minister of Energy for the United Arab Emirates. Prior to assuming this position in 2014, he worked extensively in the private sector, focusing his efforts on reservoir engineering, gas services, and real estate development. As Minister of Energy, he also controls electric and water resources in the country. His past commitments have demonstrated commitment to exploring oil resources and production opportunities in both the Middle East and Africa. He was recently appointed to the position of managing director of the International Petroleum Investment Company, which invests time and financial resources into energy resources, including pipeline building, refinery constructions in the UAE, petrochemical development, and portfolio management. He intends to increase state capacity for oil production to satisfy consumer demand in the medium-term, and has expressed deep understanding of the need to respond to the market in terms of production levels. 13. Representative of Venezuela: Eulogio Del Pino Venezuela is at a political crossroads after parliamentary elections gave opposition parties a large enough majority to make changes to the constitution (though that ability was taken away when the country’s Supreme Court suspended three members of parliament as their election victories are investigated). Because the government is so dependent on oil prices, it is currently gasping for money, a fact that Del Pino, the current Chairman of Petroleos de Venezuela, is more than aware of. With a background giving him plenty of technical expertise, Del Pino will need to keep things from falling apart at home long enough to achieve the policy changes Venezuela wants within OPEC. 14. Director-General of OPEC Fund for International Development: Suleiman Jasir Al-Herbish The OPEC Fund for International Development is a financial institution founded by OPEC whose goal is to focus on sustainable development through building human capacity and promoting international partnership among developing nations of the global South. Serving in his third, five-year term following unanimous reelection is Al-Herbish, hailing from Saudi Arabia. He has long been a champion for the elimination of energy poverty and widespread access to sustainable energy. He has manifested his passions in the Fund and guided it through fundamental changes and repositioning. He has made significant changes to financing mechanisms and advocated for inter-organizational cooperation, in addition to reforming internal HR and communications operations. His academic background lies in the field of economics. 15. Head of the PR & Information Department: Hasan Hafidh Hafidh brings a wealth of knowledge about the Iraqi energy sector into his current post, as well as a number of notable connections in the media. He has previously worked for Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, and Dow Jones Newswires. In charge of practically every report that gets published by the organization, Hafidh serves as an important link between OPEC and the rest of the world. Therefore, Hafidh will have a lot of oversight when it comes to what information gets released – and what doesn’t. 16. Head of the Energy Studies Department: Oswaldo Tapia The Energy Studies Department “is responsible for monitoring, analyzing, and forecasting world energy developments in the medium and long term” and is a key factor in calculating possible demand, which is in turn used to determine OPEC production guidelines. It essentially serves as OPEC’s research division. Tapia has made statements to organizations such as the IMFC, providing OPEC’s projections for the future and determinations of the current state of the market. 17. Head of the Data Services Department: Adedapo Odulaja A Nigerian with a history working with biostatistics of insect physiology and ecology, Odulaja heads the Data Services Department, which, along with Energy Studies and Petroleum Studies, falls within the Research Division. Odulaja is in charge of processing all the data used for OPEC’s research purposes. More broadly, his department is responsible for analyzing the oil market as a whole, especially supply and demand and wider trends in the world economy. 18. Head of the Petroleum Studies Department: H. Ghanimi Fard The Petroleum Studies department is in charge of monitoring short-term developments in the oil and product markets for the purpose of cooperative and individual decision-making. Hojatollah Ghanimi Fard is the current head of the department. Prior to assuming this role, Ghanimi-Fard served as executive director Company for international affairs, and later investment affairs, of the National Iranian Oil, where he fought to gain the good faith of investors despite sanctions imposed by the United States. He has conducted extensive research and economic analyses on the economic pressures of the oil market in the short and long term, including the influence of speculation. 19. Head of the Administration & IT Services Department: Abdullah Alakhawand Alakhawand has an extensive history working in the oil sector in Kuwait. Before working as a Senior Engineer both at Kuwait Gulf Oil Company and Kuwait National Petroleum Company, he also held a position at the College of Telecommunication and Air Navigation. Alakhawand is responsible for ensuring that the organization’s IT services operate without issue and that bureaucratic affairs are running smoothly. 20. Head of the Finance and Human Resources Department: Jose Luis Mora The Finance and Human Resources Department is responsible for all financial transactions and regulations, as well as the management of staff. Dr. Jose Luis Mora serves as head of the department, and has so since August of 2013. Prior to assuming these responsibilities, he served as a consultant in the areas of infrastructure and economic development. He has significant experience in the areas of urban planning and development, which he developed through his work in consulting. He also has an academic background in social movements, governance, and public policy and has published research on the investment policies of the oil market. 21. General Legal Counsel: Asma Muttawa Very involved in both internal and external affairs, Muttawa gives legal advice for anything that OPEC does. While she doesn’t have an extensive history in the oil industry, she has served as a legal advisor for major international companies in Libya as well as a number of UN organizations. In this committee, Muttawa will serve as the source of legal analysis of the committee’s past and present actions, ensuring that the organization doesn’t break the law (too much). 22. Secondary Representative of Saudi Arabia: Nasser A. Al-Dossary Al-Dossary serves as one of the national representatives to OPEC for Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest petroleum exporter, whose GDP is 50% dependent on oil. He also is Vice President of the Saudi Association for Energy Economics, a nonprofit working to foster the discussion of energy economics and facilitate international communication and community education on the issue. Al-Dossary has committed Saudi Arabia to continuing to meet increasing energy, specifically petroleum, demands over the next fifteen years and protecting the market share of low-cost exporters as high-cost ones continue to enter the market. 23. Secondary Representative of Algeria: Achraf Benhassine As the Advisor of Minister of Energy of Algeria, Benhassine is putting his prior research to good work. About a decade ago, he completed his PhD on the evolution of international energy markets at the Laboratory of Economy of Production and International Integration. This research focused almost exclusively on Venezuela, so has a vast working knowledge on not only his own country, but Venezuela as well. 24. Secondary Representative of Venezuela: Nélida Izarra Ms. Izarra is the National Representative to OPEC from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, whose export economy is almost entirely dependent on petroleum. She also worked as Director General of the Office of Strategic Planning under the Ministry of Popular Power of Petroleum and Mining. Venezuela has benefitted from sales and partnerships with Brazil, Ecuador, and Cuba, where discounted oil prices are exchanged for health programs and refinery construction. China also imports Venezuelan oil to avoid energy dependence on the United States. 25. Secondary Representative of Nigeria: Omar Farouk Ibrahim Ibrahim has a work history not only within Nigeria, but within OPEC as well. In 2008, he was the Head of PR and Information, so he has a good understanding of the organization and has a number of connections within it. He now works as Acting Group General Manager at Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, a company that has particularly faced struggles due to the low oil price. 26. Secondary Representative of Iraq: Ali Nazar Faeq Al-Shatari Al-Shatari is Iraq’s National Representative to OPEC. The Iraqi government has advocated against unilateral production cuts. Some statements have been issued that the unanimous decision-making structure of OPEC has negatively impacted the price of oil, which in turn damages the economic returns for all. The Iraqi government is also entering conversations with international oil companies to reform policies regarding relations between the two. 27. Secondary Representative of Iran: Mehdi Asali Asali has long been Iran’s expert on OPEC affairs, working in a related role since 2005. He is now the General Director of OPEC Affairs and Ministry of Petroleum Energy Assemblies. He will have a lot to navigate within Iran’s oil markets soon, since the lifting of economic sanctions will irrevocably change the country’s oil industry. If the committee decides to cut production, he will have to fight hard to ensure Iran still gets a share of the market. 28. Secondary Representative of Qatar: Sultan K. Al-Binali In addition to his duties as National Representative of Qatar, Khalifa Al-Binali is the Executive Director of Qatar Petroleum Marketing, and previously was Director of Qatar Petrochemical Company. He has been quoted espousing Qatar’s abidance to OPEC-established quotas and guidelines, capping oil production at the advised limit. Qatar is OPEC’s smallest producing member, its production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ties it to Asia via their dependence on LNG for feedstock supply. 29. Secondary Representative of Libya: Abdelkarim M. Omar Alhaderi Aside from serving as a part of the Libyan OPEC delegation, Alhaderi is also involved with the Gas Exporting Countries Forum. Alhaderi is constrained by the same forces as Al-Ahirish in the sense that his abilities are largely dictated by the country’s current political state. If conflict intensifies, the government’s already-fragile financial health could easily fail, a bad sign for the largely state-owned oil industry. 30. Secondary Representative of Angola: Kupessa Daniel Kupessa is the National Representative to OPEC from Angola, where an increasing amount of oil has been found in reserves offshore. In order to continue its growth as an exporting power, it needs to focus on attracting investors for onshore drilling as well. The state-owned oil company is Sonagol. Angola is a large contributor to the Chinese market and is deemed a safe and valuable investment for drilling. Its output rose from 1.722 million bpd to 1.762 million bpd between October and December of 2015. CONTACT US We would appreciate hearing your feedback about out conference. Please direct all inquiries and comments to our Secretary-General. Michael Treves Secretary-General [email protected] You can also contact us at the mailing address below: IRO c/o The International Relations Organization at the University of Virginia PO Box 400435 Newcomb Hall Station Charlottesville, VA 22904-4435 Non-Affiliation Statement Although this organization has members who are University of Virginia students and may have University employees associated or engaged in its activities and affairs, the organization is not a part of or an agency of the University. It is a separate and independent organization which is responsible for and manages its own activities and affairs. The University does not direct, supervise or control the organization and is not responsible for the organizations contracts, acts, or omissions.
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