LINK Project – Final Report Introduction 1.1 The Research Project The central idea behind this project is that, if we want to improve our new housing, we need to overcome people’s resistance to the old ideas of prefabrication and standardisation. The main focus of the project is on the purchaser and end user of housing, that is the owner-occupier. The aims of the research will be achieved in a two stage process. The first stage involves the development and testing of new predominantly financial models though which the resistance to pre-fabrication in housing can be eased. The second stage involves the practical, on-site demonstration of both product and process developments which can ease market penetration of, and confidence in, pre-fabrication and standardisation. The second stage is a ‘near-market’, developmental phase which, it is hoped, will be carried out with industrial sponsorship. As an introduction, section one of this report will first document the various issues surrounding the potential increase in the use of prefabrication and standardisation in housing. Section two will consider various case studies from the housing industry, each of which is illustrative of moves towards the greater use of prefabrication or standardisation. Section three reports on a study that examined the views of developers and other professionals, including those from the financial sector. Section four then goes on to report on several strands of the project which sought to understand the nature of any potential resistance to prefabrication, and also to explore ways of overcoming it. The main studies carried out in this respect are: 1) 2) 3) 4) A study of attitudes towards various house types; A study of attitudes towards alternative cladding materials; A study looking at social attitudes to innovative housing design; A study of attitudes of home purchasers towards various financial packages. The report will conclude with an overall discussion of the findings, and conclude with a series of recommendations arising from the various studies carried out as part of this research project. 1.2 Prefabrication and Standardisation in Housing At the core of this project are the types of prefabrication and standardisation which may or may not be resisted by clients and the market. There exists a vast array of these building types, which differ both in the technologies used and in the likely impact on the public. At one end of the scale there are standardised building systems which use quality controlled, manufactured components to create houses which can look identical to conventionally constructed buildings. These systems may employ, for example, timber, concrete or steel frames, with a wide variety of cladding materials. In this context we should not forget that a brick is a standardised, prefabricated component. At the other end of the scale we have fully prefabricated buildings, which can present an appearance to the world ranging from a fair simulation of a traditional, masonry construction to a futuristic glass and steel ‘pod’. 1 LINK Project – Final Report Another ‘traditional’ form of standardisation in housing is the ‘pattern book’ approach, which aims to standardise form rather than materials or manufacture. An extension of this approach is the rigid and detailed design brief in the public sector, which produces what in practical term’s amounts to a standardised house. 1.3 Historical Context Historically, there have been many proponents of the concepts of standardisation and pre-fabrication in housing. Lethaby in 1911 once said that we should aim to produce houses as efficient as a bicycle, which, as Vale (1996) points out, is very much a standardised object. Since then, others such as Le Corbusier and Gropius, have made similar comparisons (although more often with ships, automobiles or aeroplanes than the bicycle). It is important that the key criteria in prefabrication and standardisation are recognised as relating to the processes as opposed the products. The prefabrication of components, elements, or even entire structures off-site as an alternative to working in-situ has been extensively applied in the past, although recently developed approaches have both refined and expanded the practical application. Any building requires that the construction be broken into stages, regardless of the degree of prefabrication employed. The quality of the finished product depends as much on selection of materials and attention to detail as it does on the construction method. It is the case however that a number of buildings constructed in the past making use of prefabrication in their construction were judged to be of poor quality. In the UK following World War II, there was an organised and state-led drive for the mass provision of (mainly social) housing. Sustained by decades of steady economic growth, vast and open-ended programmes of housing construction were undertaken. Particularly in Scotland, the extent of state intervention in this process was unmatched elsewhere in Europe (Glendinning and Watters 1999). The concept of the “prefab” home grew in prominence, and referred in the main to two types of construction - a completely prefabricated aluminium bungalow, and various house types incorporating degrees of off-site factory construction. Each variation on the theme of prefabrication has impacted on society’s view of the appropriateness of using such technologies to house people. Although the prominence of “prefab” homes in terms of construction output dwindled by the 1960s, the connection between a conceptual process and a realised product had been established. For almost two decades between 1960 and the mid 1970s, a programme of standardised and mass produced social housing followed that of the “prefab” home throughout the UK. With particular regard to high rise system built housing of the 1960s, the application of a standardised approach to usually state-owned housing firmly established a connection between very specific building types and the concept of standardised building. Although many examples exist of standardised construction, or at least standardised design, being applied in the UK prior to this time (for example Edinburgh New Town, Glasgow town plan), a new and powerful connection has been forged. The social acceptability of the mass produced housing built in the UK in the past 50 years has varied considerably, with current reactions to current technologies heavily influenced by past errors in design and construction. Whatever the reason for the undoubted physical and social failure of a lot of post-war prefabricated housing, 2 LINK Project – Final Report the results of this project show that the considerable stigma is attached to the idea of the 'prefab', rather than to prefabrication or standardisation per se. It is not however the role of this report to chronicle either the failures or the successes of the history of the post-war 'prefab' With both prefabricated and standardised construction, it is vital to remember that the likely lifespan of such housing constructed between 1946 and 1975 is generally considered to be less than that of “traditional” built housing. Most modern construction, which uses non-masonry materials, also tends to have predicted a lifespans less than those of masonry built housing. Any perceptual links between the ideas of prefabrication, standardisation and non-permanence may therefore prove vital in the acceptance of new approaches to construction. 1.4 Prefabricated Construction Methods – Present day Challenges Bearing in mind the problems associated with certain prefabricated and standardised buildings in the past, it is also useful to identify strengths which emerged from that work, and which can be readily applied now. Standardisation and pre-assembly within construction has been successful in many, sometimes prominent, projects including Hong Kong airport, much modern hotel construction and the second Severn bridge crossing. The importance of modular construction using a range of materials is also gaining in importance, and will continue to do so. From the occupant’s perspective, standardising the construction process can satisfy any number of definitions of “value”. For example, a balance of lower time, optimum cost and high quality can be achieved, with due attention also given to whole life assessment. The resultant early completion, user satisfaction and ease of maintenance and replacement all indicate that standardisation and prefabrication have great potential for the future. The current large demand for new housing surely points toward the need for such an approach to be applied. Standardisation can be generic, client-specific, supplier led or project-specific. Similarly, prefabrication can take a number of forms and the term can refer to components, sub-assemblies, volumetric pre-assembly and modular building (Sparksman et al. 1999). The selection of the appropriate level of prefabrication and standardisation will depend on the case to hand, and should be clearly driven by the stated “value needs” of a given project. Systems and components already available incorporating timber, steel, concrete and a combination of these materials, are providing potential solutions in the design and manufacture of housing. Standardisation of the process need not however, in a post-Fordist world in which the economic production of one is widely predicted, lead to standardisation of the product. It should be possible through standardising the process, to arrive at socially desirable, sustainable and technically sound solutions. An important distinction to be made is that between process and product. Both standardisation and prefabrication suggest not necessarily functionally or aesthetically distinct products from more conventional construction, but more routes toward the attainment of stated goals. With regard to housing, rather than viewing such processes as barriers to innovative and satisfactory design, providing the aims of any project are clearly stated it should be possible to work towards maximising value for all concerned. 3 LINK Project – Final Report Demands set in the UK by the Government sponsored Egan (1998) have moved current thinking towards improving efficiency in construction, and driving towards greater value and quality. Similarly, given the need for sustainability and the generally important consideration of environmental and social values in the longer term, it is essential that a long term view be taken and that the consequent needs for flexibility, maintenance and eventual disposal (or re-use) be addressed at the design stage. It is clear that a wide range of short term goals can be addressed through different levels of standardisation, and that the prefabrication of components, or the use of modular building types, can provide the user with a flexible and personalised living space. Important past mistakes concerning a lack of quality, attention to detail, and consideration of the life cycle clearly must be recognised. The design team must also recognise where housing is constructed in large volumes, that a duty is owed to ensure that the resulting buildings adequately address the needs of the householder, with regard to emotional satisfaction, function and economic performance. Prefabricated and standardised construction methods provide reliable, tested and flexible tools with which the design team must work to satisfy such demands. Advances in technology and new organisational structures allow concepts like standardisation and prefabrication potentially to address many of the problems facing the house-building industry, such as a shortage of labour skills and the need for greater client involvement. However, there are various hindrances to change in this respect (Sparksman et al., 1999), including a general pessimism about past mistakes. It seems that rather than culminating in the standardised housing types of past experiences, the trend in thinking is towards ‘mass-customisation’ and ‘agile production’ (Barlow, 1999), which greatly increases the number of choices offered to customers, while retaining the efficiencies of the production philosophy. In the context of this trend towards a customer focussed house-building strategy (Roy & Cochrane, 1999), it is considered useful to have an understanding of market preferences, as well as perceptions of the nature and meaning of house and home by potential occupants. The issue of market preferences has been documented elsewhere (see Roy & Cochrane, 1999), and will not be discussed here, other than to say that preference tends to be directed at the second hand housing market, as current new-housing is perceived by house-buyers as offering less choice and flexibility. This is important in a time of increasing diversity of housing demand. 1.5 Skills Shortages One of the main concerns of UK Government about the state of the construction industry is the low and diminishing level of skilled labour. Both the reduction in craft skills of the various building tradespeople and the declining numbers of people in most of the trades has been a major concern for Egan and other industry reports and is a significant motivation in funding prefabrication and standardisation research for EPSRC and DTI. A particular concern giving rise to interest in more manufactured buildings is the lack of skilled bricklayers and plasterers and this difficulty coincides with interest in reducing wet trades in housing in a bit to speed up and streamline the construction process. 4 LINK Project – Final Report Roy and Gaze (1999) point out that… ‘The traditional craft-based build process prevalent in the UK is labour intensive with a long lead-time, and is difficult to control for product quality. It is also not suitable for configurable designs that would help to customise the home to individual needs, and the industry has been criticised for excessive standardisation of its products. Attempts at industrialised housing, found in many other countries, have usually failed in the past due to lack of clear objectives and inadequate R&D’ They point out that Ball (1996) has argued that such industrialisation has not developed in the UK due to the absence of specialist sub-contractors and adequately trained labour. They argue however that… ‘the skills needed, although new to house-builders, are not high in relation to the country’s manufacturing skill-base and, to an extent, exist in the commercial-building sector’. DTI and EPSRC have funded a ‘sister project’ to this one in the MCNS Programme, which has been carried out by a consortium led by Westminster University. Their aims were: x To assess how far the extension of manufacturing-based methods in the British construction industry is deterred through existing skill and education/training structures. x To describe the skills, education and training of personnel at all levels involved in more traditional housebuilding construction and in construction using standardised, prefabricated components - with examples from Britain, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. x To assess the degree of multi-skilling entailed in traditional and innovative construction. x To draw up a skill classification matrix referring to type of process, firm and client, and recommendations on training and education requirements. (Clark, 2002) This project concentrated heavily on on-site productivity of labour as the main indicator of construction efficiency. It’s ethos related directly to the consideration of construction as manufacturing process and as such it is a parallel study to the current project but does not cover the same ground. For example, the Westminster project takes no account of the design, materiality or value of the home to individual occupants and purchasers, which is central to this project. Members of the project team have been in consultation with the Westminster team and have contributed to discussions and seminars. 5 LINK Project – Final Report 1.6 Technological Approaches to Prefabrication and Standardisation 1.6.1 Geographical Comparison The research team carried out a literature review and desk study of the available information on different approaches to prefabrication and standardisation in housing. The primary purpose of this study was to identify the most likely future scenarios for housing in the UK in the medium to long-term future. This clearly needed to involve international comparison of approaches and technologies, since it is quite likely that new approaches to housing may be introduced from countries where prefabrication is more advanced and arguably, the construction industry is somewhat less conservative. A print out of the full database can be seen in Appendix A. The team identified almost 100 different companies currently offering prefabricated buildings, or partially prefabricated, buildings within the UK and numerous companies operating elsewhere in for example, USA, Germany, Scandinavia and Japan. Many of the companies represented in the database are either not producing housing or are not dedicated solely to housing. Rather, they are producing buildings using technologies, which could readily be applied to the housing sector. Of the UK companies, 20-25% are constructing what might be considered to be ‘conventional’ timber frame solutions (the proportion rises in Scotland). It should be noted that the desk study, which aimed to achieve 100% coverage of generic approaches to prefabrication and standardisation, as opposed to 100% coverage of all the companies involved, is not amenable to statistical reduction. However certain general conclusions can be drawn from it and these are summarised below. 1.6.1.1 USA American culture, with its ideas of impermanence and the ‘pioneer’, takes a very different view of the home to that of Europeans. In certain circumstances, for example, mobile homes are much more acceptable than they are to European sensibilities. Therefore many types of prefabricated (in US terms ‘manufactured’) homes are generally accepted, despite a difference in aesthetics from a traditional home, (a home finished in brick or block). In addition, in many parts of the US the ‘traditional’ home is considered to be a ‘stick-built’ timber house. In the US, market conditions before the Second World War were also quite different from those in the UK. In the US, construction followed the principles of a free market economy with factory production and commercial distribution, which was mainly in the hands of entrepreneurs and engineers. Manufactured homes in the US usually consist of a steel frame, with panel infills constructed of either steel or timber, or some derivative. Timber is expensive in the US, but when timber is used it usually used for more prestigious developments, where quality, rather than cost, is the driving factor. Developed from the ‘Terran House’ of the post war period, most manufactured homes currently on the market do not look dissimilar, and provide all mod-cons, spacious accommodation, energy efficiency and deliver a 'whole house package'. 6 LINK Project – Final Report Elemental prefabrication is the most common type of housing prefabrication in the US. However, a recent survey of American architects showed that most felt that European architects were ahead of their American counterparts regarding construction technology and innovation due to architects having more 'esteem' in Europe (Architectural Record, The 1999 survey). They also stated that clients in Europe are more likely to pay more for innovative approaches. In the US, although steel is the most common prefabricated material, timber and concrete are also used fairly commonly. That is, the US market has not devoted itself to one material. 1.6.1.2 Finland In Finland the predominant type of housing up to the 1930's was ‘log cabins’ for low density housing and concrete and brick for higher density housing developments. A boom in Finnish agriculture led to an increased need for standardisation, which was usually in the form of a timber frame. Aalto, returning to Finland in 1937, designed the first standardised timber house to meet the needs of the working population. The AA system developed by Aalto and Ahlström is probably the best known and most innovative of the many prefabricated wood house systems created in the 40's. Aalto at this time succeeded in introducing modern concepts of architecture to prefabrication (Detail, 1, 1997). This type of timber system was common up to the fifties. The prefabrication took the form of standard panels made from timber, some of which were manufactured in Sweden. After the fifties, timber was used in larger developments, and also other materials were being more frequently used combined with timber. By the seventies timber had been mostly replaced by concrete and steel, with more standardised components being used due to a boom in housing. Today, there is the beginning of a swing back towards timber because of psychological and health aspects as well as ecological gains. 1.6.1.3 Sweden Sweden followed much the same route as Finland, but is seen as more as the manufacturing capital for prefabrication. The war accelerated the shift from traditional construction to framed structures with wall panels. The Swedish 'gift' houses as they are known played a major role at this period. These were designed in Finland but manufactured in Sweden, providing single family housing with complete fabrication of wall units, and were given to Finland after the Winter War. These were 'sold' to clients, most commonly to self-builder single families. In Sweden prefabricated technology is much the same today as was common after the Second World War, however other criteria are used in the design methodologies. In Sweden, not only the economic and construction benefits are the sole reason for using prefabrication, other criteria such as energy efficiency, low maintenance, sustainable materials are also considered. Sweden also heads the research and development of material manufacturing in timber and concrete. The use of steel in Scandinavia is not common. An example of modern innovation in standardisation is the IKEA 'flat-pack' house (timber/concrete composite). 1.6.1.4 Japan Japan has a rich tradition of timber construction, for centuries all buildings were constructed using the durable timber available on the islands. After the second world war, western architecture (the modern movement) turned to materials such as steel, concrete and glass, wood being excluded in all types of construction except in some 7 LINK Project – Final Report types of housing. Since the 80's there has been a change in this perception with the influence again coming from the west. Still outside the realm of housing, timber has little influence. One of the main differences between the Japanese and UK markets lies in customer attitudes. In Japan prefabrication is seen as the quality alternative rather than the cheap norm. Companies such as Misawa homes have factories for the mass production of prefabricated houses constructed predominately of steel and concrete. In addition, due to Japan's unique Land ownership system, companies in Japan can be ensured of a regularly recurring housing demand (the average life span is only 25 years, compared to 60+ in the UK). In Japan, ownership of the plot of land is the permanent feature, possibly driven by the geographical nature of the island. A recent DTI trade mission to Japan (Building Homes, June 1998) discovered that Misawa homes, only the fifth largest housebuilders in Japan, has 33 factories and 207 sales centres, supported by a Research & Development arm. This company produces 47,000 units annually, equivalent to the combined output of the UK's ten largest housing companies. In Japan there will be 1.3 million homes built per year, compared with the UK's 200,000 (in 1998). The fact that Misawa Homes has developed a new material perhaps demonstrates how far ahead of the UK the industry is. ‘New Ceramics’, giving better U-values than concrete but as light as wood and fire proof, can be easily prefabricated for use in a home. These New Ceramic homes, the development cost of which was £80m, have already been exported to Germany and Taiwan. 1.6.1.5 Netherlands/Belgium The aesthetics of Dutch and Belgian housing lends itself to standardisation, with much of the housing already designed to a replicated aesthetic. Many panel systems used in Holland are now making their way into the UK including ‘Tunnel-form’ construction and the ‘Esspanel’. Like the Americans, the Dutch use many different materials in their prefabrication, and are particularly innovative in their use of panel systems for housing. Much of the prefabricated housing industry was necessitated by damage sustained during the Second World War. Unlike in the UK, there has not been such an anti-prefabrication backlash in subsequent years. Similarly to Japan, there is another reason that in Holland prefabrication is more acceptable. In Holland, many houses are demolished and re-built, as opposed to being refurbished, as would be more likely in the UK. In addition Dutch building standards are higher than in the UK, ensuring that prefabrication and other fast track methods of construction (such as tunnel form) are popular so as to reduce costs (Building Homes, May 1998). 1.6.1.6 Germany As in England, the Germans have been wary of timber construction, especially in large developments. Prefabrication is vastly more widely accepted in Germany than in the UK. In West Germany prefabrication holds 11% of the overall market share of housing while in the East the market share is more than 24%. The use of steel, timber panel, concrete framing and masonry panel systems is growing rapidly, with a 8 LINK Project – Final Report many greener, ecological designs also being marketed. German clients favour ‘onestop-shop’ packages that include financial services, assistance with finding sites and a range of standard, customisable house types. This has led, since re-unification, to packages offered by contractors, architects and building societies that combine expertise. In many cases, building societies have been concerned with the increase in house prices, which prevented young families looking for their first home. These building societies recognise that a reduction in housing cost by 22% could generate millions of extra homes and hence, of course, millions of extra customers. It is arguably part of the function of this research project to generate the same kind of concern amongst funders in the UK (Building Homes, June, 1998). 1.6.1.7 Britain In the aftermath of the Egan report, the idea that a completely furnished, ready-tooccupy dwelling can be craned onto a prepared site in a matter of weeks is appealing, if a little novel, for our house-building industry. After the Second World War, the shortage of housing required a quick fix solution that was both affordable and quick to construct. These buildings, mostly steel frame, sometimes timber, were equipped with mod cons and proved popular, generally outliving their expected lives. In the sixties further innovative use of prefabricated structure and panels resulted in a number of disasters, some of which, notably Ronan Point, were very visible and high profile. These disasters have given prefabrication the 'bad-name' it still ostensibly has today. They were reinforced by bad publicity surrounding the apparent failure of some timber frame housing in England in the early 1980s. Despite being commonplace in Japan and Scandinavia, where purchasers can order a customised new home from a catalogue of components, modular construction has not achieved universal acceptance. However, it is fairly common for certain specialist applications, such as the Travelodge variety of ‘family hotel' and the drive-in fast-food outlet. Greenwich's Dome may be the largest enclosed space in Europe, but not to be outdone, McDonald's has built the largest fast-food restaurant in Europe just next door (2200m2) in a period of just 15 weeks, using modular construction. This is to add to their 'fastest in the world title' in Runcorn Cheshire. This project epitomises some of the benefits that are achievable using a modular design. The installation of the light steel prefabricated modules took just two hours, most of the fitting out being done in the factory also. A key factor in the title, was the fact that a prefabricated steel piling system was used for the foundations. The arguments for modularisation are persuasive - speed of construction, quality control through off-site production and economy, providing there is sufficient volume. But so far, design awards for modular buildings have been rather thin on the ground. The database, which was compiled in the initial stages of the research project, suggests that timber is not currently the most popular prefabrication material for frames in the UK. In addition, a number of prefab companies have moved from timber-frame towards steel-frame (for example Volumetric Ltd). The database also suggests that timber-frame is making a comeback, due to the drive for sustainable 9 LINK Project – Final Report materials, an example of such is the ‘Timber Dwelling Project’. The fact that the database consists primarily of new, innovative solutions, which have been reported in the popular, professional or academic press may skew this data somewhat, however. That is, many companies who just continue to build ‘conventional’ timber frame houses in small numbers are missing from the database. It is also important to note that many of the 'millennium villages' planned in the UK, use some form of prefabricated elements. In Britain, steel and concrete are more commonly used in prefabrication, and usually for large projects (i.e. flats, commercial premises, etc). Regarding steel, there are four main manufacturers that could offer prefabricated homes, and these are Yorkon, Volumetric, Britspace Modular Building Systems and Terrapin (all these companies are supplied by British Steel, however all of these commonly construct motels, restaurants, etc rather than housing. Indeed, in the database, most of the articles that describe off-site factory prefabrication use steel-frame. An exception is the proposed Arup factory that will use concrete as it's main frame and panel. In the database, concrete is the second favourite prefabricated material, although some articles indicate its unsuitability in the housing market, though the ground floor and foundations are an exception. Concrete prefabrication dominates the ground floor, basement and foundation areas, for obvious reasons. Many of the articles in the database describe steel-frame construction as having more versatility than timber, being able to be used with a wide range of prefabricated panels. Generally timber-frame and concrete-frame prefabricated structures are specified with timber infill panels and concrete infill panels respectively, whereas steel-frame utilises a wide range of alternatives which may include plastic, stone, ceramic, concrete or timber as well as glass. It implies that steel-frame offers the architect more control over the aesthetics of a building. In Britain, factory prefabrication or a combination of some on-site fabrication and factory fabrication is preferred to on-site prefabrication (as in tunnel form, or tilt-up construction). Indeed almost 75% of the articles found detail that a combination of factory prefabrication and on-site 'wet' work is most commonly used, but mostly the prefabrication is for elements of the construction only rather than whole modules and pods. In the UK there are no factories for manufactured construction elements that are totally dedicated to housing though there are a number proposed for the near future which hope to conform with the Egan report. As such, there is little evidence that prefabrication is being used other than to make housing more affordable. Figure 1 shows the amount of housing built in Scotland during the period since the Second World War. The graph shows three distinct stages, the first period has the highest public sector peak, was mostly during the post war years (1945-60) constructed mostly with prefabrication technology. At the beginning of the 60's package-deal homes were more the norm for this period of building boom. Since 1975 the public sector has declined rapidly being replaced by private sector housing. This has resulted in a move away from prefabricated technology (Home Builders, Glendinning & Watters,1999). 10 LINK Project – Final Report 1.6.2 The Way Forward Housing types that we feel are appropriate areas for further study include single family homes in the suburban and rural environments, where the aesthetics and popularity of prefabrication is expected to be less than city centre or urban environments. There are parallels with the earlier ‘prefab’ boom of the post war period of 1945-60 during, which much of the prefabricated housing was sited in suburban environments, with varying degrees of success. It is also important to access other benefits, which could apply to prefabrication other than the construction and economic benefits. Much of the overseas literature that has been gathered on construction systems which use prefabrication, not only focus on the construction and economic gains but also on the quality of the prefabrication. It is noted that the term 'quality' is always difficult to define, but for the purposes of this study it might include any of the following; (a) Housing as a product. Easy maintenance, replaceability and extendibility. (b) Sustainable prefabrication using sustainable materials from local sources, many small factories compared to one large centralised one, etc. (c) Energy efficiency with ecological design (d) Low running costs and renewable energy sources (e) Healthy environments within the home (f) Smart homes and working from home (g) Integrated, local heating and power systems (h) Recycling and re-use Figure 1 Number of Houses Built in Scotland by Sector, 1945-97 40000 35000 Number of houses 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 7 19 9 3 5 19 9 1 19 9 19 9 7 9 19 8 5 19 8 19 8 1 3 19 8 9 19 8 19 7 5 7 19 7 3 19 7 19 7 9 1 19 7 7 19 6 19 6 3 5 19 6 1 19 6 19 6 7 9 19 5 5 19 5 19 5 1 3 19 5 9 19 5 19 4 5 19 4 19 4 7 0 Date Public Sector Private Sector Figure 1 - Number of Houses Built in Scotland, 1945-971 1 It should be noted that the figures for 'private sector' house construction include those built by housing associations or housing cooperatives 11 LINK Project – Final Report It should be noted that were the suggestion by the German financial sector, that capital costs of housing could be reduced by up to 22% through the use of prefabrication, to be correct (Building Homes, June, 1998), the savings could be considerable. If the 4.4 million homes required by 2016 in the UK were to reap these benefits using, total savings could be up to £450 million. This money could target such issues as energy efficiency, ecological design, sustainable building materials, and renewable energy. 12 LINK Project – Final Report 1.7 Stakeholders There are many potential stakeholders that changes in the housing product would have an effect on. Clearly, the developer gains financially from a process which enables the construction of similar houses at a lower cost. However, if the construction process were to be made explicit in some way, either through description or design, there is a potential for resistance to become evident. This resistance might be from the owner-occupier, or it might be from the various other stakeholders, such as: x x x x x x x Planners, Developers, Lenders, Architects, Manufacturers, Insurers, Builders. The views of these various stakeholders will be explored in section two, with a view to understanding the key groups on which to target specific measures to overcome any potential resistance if this is deemed appropriate. 1.8 Overcoming Resistance As stated earlier, this project is primarily concerned with the nature of any potential resistance to the product of the prefabrication process. The various studies presented here aim to understand resistance from the point of view of the various stakeholders outlined in section 1.7. Moreover, after exploring the nature of this resistance (or lack of), the study looking at financial packages will show that there are various means by which resistance from the perspective of the potential occupant might be overcome. The feasibility of any such measures will be discussed in the concluding section of this report. 13
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