APUSH READING NOTES THE REAGAN-BUSH ERA: 1981-1993 OVERVIEW Ronald Reagan, in many respects, changed the political landscape of America. He was the first two-term President since Eisenhower and left office with a high approval rating in 1989. He is certainly the dominant political figure of the 1980s, along with Gorbachev and Thatcher. He will be remembered for a number of reasons, but most importantly, his election meant a fundamental reexamination of the functions and responsibilities of the federal government. What is the government supposed to do? Is the government manageable? How is government to fulfill its constitutional command that it "promote the general welfare?" What is the "general welfare?" Taking a very long view, one can argue that Reagan challenged many of the assumptions associated with liberalism and the New Deal welfare state. George Bush was Reagan’s V-P and was considered more moderate than Reagan. His election in 1988 is often viewed as the “third” Reagan election. He served for four years and was unable to hold the office in the face of the Clinton challenge in 1992. I. THE 1980 ELECTION A. THREE GREAT ISSUES FOR CARTER 1. Inflation 2. The Hostage Crisis (444 days) 3. The appearance of "indecisiveness" B. THEMES OF THE CAMPAIGN 1. Carter touted his foreign policy successes (i.e. the Camp David Accords) and stressed Reagan's liabilities -- a return to the era of "states' rights" and the risk of pronounced militarism. 2. Reagan stressed his mantra of "government being the problem" not the solution, the need for a stronger defense posture, the "discomfort index" (inflation + unemployment = more than 25), the need to balance the federal budget, and his willingness to make sizeable cuts in government spending. C. THE KENNEDY CHALLENGE 1. Kennedy disliked Carter and viewed him as an outsider 2. The Senator mounted an anti-Carter campaign at the Democratic Convention which seriously hurt the sitting President D. ENTER JOHN ANDERSON 1. Anderson, a former Republican Congressman from Illinois, mounted a vocal third party candidacy, foreshadowing a third party movement that would continue throughout the 1980s and 1990s. 2. Anderson was a fiscal conservative and social liberal and he argued that the two major parties were too captive to special interest groups to tackle the difficult issues of the day. E. ELECTION OUTCOME 1. Reagan wins 50.75% of the popular vote, Carter 41.02%, and Anderson 6.61%. 2. 53% voter turnout 3. Reagan wins the Electoral College vote 489-49. 4. Republicans gain 33 seats in the House, cutting into the Democratic Party's hold on that body (243-192, and Republicans gain 12 seats in the Senate to take control of that body (5347). This was the biggest mid-term gains by either party since 1958. Rykken1 5. Reagan's coalition included some traditionally Democratic voters (so-called "Reagan Democrats"). The Democratic Party leaves the election of 1980 fractured and bruised. II. PERSONAL BACKGROUND: RONALD WILSON REAGAN A. EARLY LIFE 1. Born in 1911 in Tampico, Illinois 2. Generally humble background -- father an alcoholic in search of work throughout much of Reagan's early life. 3. Attended school in Dixon, Illinois (an "All-American" boy) 4. Attended Eureka College in Illinois, graduating in 1932 5. Sports Announcer for the Chicago Cubs from 1932-37. B. PERFORMING CAREER AND MILITARY STINT 1. First film: "Love is on the Air" in 1937 2. Most famous film in 1940: "Knute Rockne: All American" (remember the Gipper?) 3. Altogether Reagan made 50 movies, mostly in the "B" category, including "Hellcats of the Navy" in which he played opposite his future wife, Nancy Davis. 4. His performing career stretched from 1937-1964. His familiarity with the public, of course, made him a natural for the political arena. 5. He served in the Army Air Force from 1942-45 and was primarily involved with making training films. 6. Union Leadership: He served as President of the Screen Actors Guild from 1947-52 and 1959-60. He was on the front lines during the black days of the McCarthy "witch hunts" of the early 1950s. Generally perceived as a successful union leader. 7. Marriages: His first wife was Jane Wyman (1940-48). They had two children, Maureen and Michael. His second wife is Nancy Davis (1952-present). They also had two children, Patty and Ron, Jr. 8. Years as a TV Star: 1954-65. He hosted the General Electric Theater, a popular program that brought him a great deal of attention. He also was a regular on "Death Valley Days" -a western -- and this cemented his image in many minds as the "cowboy." C. POLITICAL EVOLUTION AND THE RISE TO POWER 1. Reagan originally was a New Deal Democrat and, in fact, voted for FDR in 1932 at the age of 32. 2. He campaigned for Truman in 1948. 3. During the 1950s, he became increasingly conservative in his views. Though remaining a Democrat, he campaigned for Ike in both 1952 and 56. 4. In 1960, he headed up a group known as "Democrats for Nixon" 5. In 1962, he formally switched his party allegiance and began to be more involved in California politics. 6. The Goldwater candidacy of 1964 was Reagan's first big moment politically. His nominating speech of Goldwater at the Republican convention, coupled with his fundraising speech ("the speech") made him an instant hit among conservatives. 7. In 1966 he won the governorship of California and was re-elected in 1970. 8. Conventional wisdom: First term as governor is often considered a mess, the second term quite successful. In many respects, he represents or symbolizes the "establishment" in the late 1960s vs. the disaffected youth (especially in southern California!). Rykken2 9. He is a minor Presidential candidate in 1968, a somewhat more important player in 1976. During this period, however, the moderate wing of the Republican Party holds sway, and his time is yet to come. III. THE REAGAN POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY A. CONSERVATISM DEFINED 1. By most estimates, Reagan is the most purely conservative President since Hoover. The first picture Reagan hung in the Cabinet Room, interestingly enough, was that of Calvin Coolidge. Bear in mind that Reagan would have been in his teens while Cool Cal was in the White House. 2. By 1964, Reagan is clearly identified with the right wing of the Republican Party. He will be highly successful at garnering the support of both the fiscal and social conservatives within the Party. B. REAGAN'S THEMES 1. Government is the problem, not the solution! 2. We must reduce the size of the federal system! He believed that the "New Dealism" of the 1930s and beyond had led to a bloating of the system by the mid-1950s. 3. We must return power to the states! (New Federalism) This accent on "decentralization" is a trademark of the Reagan years. Governors like Tommy Thompson will be part of this movement. Ironically, this emphasis on "state power" will spawn a new wave of reform governors across the country --- like William Clinton in Arkansas! 4. Taxes must be reduced and the budget balanced! 5. Defense spending must be increased! 6. Reagan also had a series of "pet issues" that he spoke of continually, yet never really was able to "sell": the line-item veto, prayer in schools, putting a stop to abortion, for example. C. THE "REAGAN PERSONALITY" 1. His humor and extreme self-confidence endeared him to many 2. Somewhat appealing to the "anti-intellectual" crowd in the sense that he had a somewhat "homespun" appeal. He certainly did not possess, for example, the intellectual appeal of Richard Nixon or Woodrow Wilson. 3. According to many historians, Reagan is the most "thoroughly ideological" President of the modern period. 4. His personality naturally created a leadership style similar to Ike. 5. His age, of course, is an important factor here: He was 15 years old when Coolidge was in office, 22 when FDR was first elected, 41 when Ike was first elected, 50 by the time Kennedy was in office, 63 when Nixon resigned, 69 when first elected himself, and nearly 78 years old when he left office. ** Note: Historian Teddy White points out that the landslide elections since WW II have primarily marked Republicans as the winner. There have been 6 (52, 56, 64, 72, 80, 84) and 5 of those were Republican victories -- one of them a very direct repudiation of the incumbent - 1980. Rykken3 IV. THE REAGAN ADMINISTRATION A. KEY PLAYERS 1. VP: George Bush (Reagan's erstwhile opponent in 1980) 2. Secretary of State: Alexander Haig until 1982, George Schultz for the remainder 3. Secretary of Treasury: James Baker (one of the "Big Three" along with Deaver and Meese) 4. Secretary of Defense: Caspar Weinberger and Carlucci 5. Attorney General: Smith until 1985, Meese for the remainder 6. Education: Terrell Bell until 1985, William Bennett for the remainder 7. Chief of Staff: Don Regan first, then Howard Baker 8. Head of the Office of Management and Budget: David Stockman 9. National Security Advisor(s): Several here. McFarlane, Poindexter, eventually Colin Powell. The first two mentioned become embroiled in Iran-Contra. V. THE REAGAN "AGENDA" A. ECONOMIC PROGRAM: "REAGANOMICS" 1. Reagan was an advocate of "supply-side" theory which essentially meant two things: Significant reductions in federal spending coupled with a major tax cut. The thinking behind this model, first advocated by JFK in 1961, is that the tax cut would stimulate consumer spending, thereby spurring economic growth. Additionally, of course, cuts in government spending would be fiscally responsible in terms of dealing with the national debt. 2. The largest tax cut in American history was passed, then, in 1981: The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (30% reduction) 3. The Recession of 1981: Bankruptcies, soaring unemployment (11% by 1982), loss of tax revenues placed this tax cut in "doubt" 4. In 1982, the government passed the largest tax increase in American history to attempt to reverse the situation -- answering the need for increasing revenues. B. INCREASED DEFENSE SPENDING 1. Increased defense spending had begun during that last year of the Carter Administration. 2. During Reagan's tenure, we would have the largest increase in defense spending in peacetime ever in our history ($1.9 trillion over 8 years) 3. The defense spending, simultaneous with the initial tax cut, of course, meant soaring deficits (George Bush, ironically enough, had attacked Reagan on this issue during the 1980 primaries, calling it "voodoo economics" and warning of the deficit!). VI. THE SECOND TERM A. THE ELECTION OF 1984 1. Mondale/ Ferraro vs. Reagan/Bush 2. Mondale spoke openly of the need for a tax increase, committing political suicide 3. 1984 will be a huge landslide for Reagan. He wins by over 17 million votes and 525 to 13 in the Electoral College! B. DOMESTIC AGENDA: 1985-89 1. Consistency and continuation of major themes of first term Rykken4 2. Priorities that gained much attention after 1984: Expansion of Medicare to include "catastrophic health insurance"/ Strengthening the Social Security Trust Fund/ Simplification of the Tax Code (1986 Tax Reform Act). TRANSITION President Reagan enjoyed unusually high popularity ratings at the end of his second term, but because of the 22nd Amendment, could not run again in 1988. His political heir -- George H.W. Bush -- benefited from the Reagan popularity and was elected 41st President of the United States. VII. ECONOMIC BACKDROP: WHAT HAPPENED IN THE 1980s? A. LONG-TERM IMPACT OF REAGAN'S POLICIES 1. Recall the concept of "supply-side" economics 2. The Recession of 1982 and beyond a. GNP fell by 2.5% in '82/ Unemployment rose to above 10% b. Nearly 1/3 of America's industrial plants lay idle c. Farmers suffered mightily 3. Upside: Inflation came under control for the first time in several years 4. By 1983-84 (heading into election year), some sectors of the economy were rebounding 5. US began a period of strong economic growth (through 1987) a. On the surface this looked good b. Much of the growth, however, was based on increased deficit spending c. The national debt tripled while Reagan was at the helm d. The situation of the poor and lower middle class deteriorated, in spite huge increases in wealth for the upper class e. Recall that this is also a period of huge defense spending increases f. The dramatic "crash" of the Stock Market in 1987 signaled lowered confidence in the economy ANALYSIS: Bush profited from the Reagan economic trends in the short run (as in, getting elected) but was truly hurt by some of the long-term implications of the growing deficits (both the national debt and the trade deficit). VIII. BUSH AND THE ELECTION OF 1988 A. STATUS QUO WAS THE MESSAGE 1. Bush campaigned promising a continuation of the prosperity that Reagan had brought 2. Dukakis argued that the less fortunate in society were hurting badly and that the government had to curb defense spending and reduce the debt 3. Bush made his famous "Read My Lips, No New Taxes" pledge in the campaign and it became the "mantra" for his Presidency B. BUSH LOSES THE RIGHT WING: THE 1990 BUDGET DEBATE 1. During his first year in office, Bush followed a conservative fiscal program and remained faithful to the Reagan approach Rykken5 2. With a growing deficit and a deficit-reduction law in place (Gramm-Rudman-Hollings), Bush became somewhat trapped in a situation where no new spending programs could be passed AND spending cuts would have to be made. 3. He pursued policies that "strayed" from the Reagan plan somewhat -- i.e. he signed a sweeping environmental bill that imposed new federal standards on urban smog, auto exhaust, toxic air pollution and acid rain, but most of the costs were assigned to the polluter themselves. He also signed a far reaching law related to physical access for the disabled, but most costs, again, were transferred to businesses. He greatly encouraged a campaign of volunteerism ("thousand points of light") for social beneficence. 4. THE ECONOMIC DEAL OF 1990 a. Gaining effective control of the deficit became a major problem for Bush b. The long-term impact of the "Savings and Loan" Crisis of the mid to late 1980s was being dramatically felt. Fraud, mismanagement, lax regulation, and economic downturns in certain areas of the country led to widespread insolvencies in the S and L industry. The federal government was left "holding the bag" so to speak (multi billion dollar pricetag) c. From January through June of 1990, Bush got locked into a major budget battle with the Congress. He agreed, to the chagrin of his fellow Republicans, to a significant tax increase, reversing his pledge from the campaign. 5. BUDGETARY WOES OF 1991 AND 1992 a. A combination of economic recession, losses incurred from the S and L situation, and escalating health care costs for Medicare and Medicaid offset any significant deficit reduction. b. 1992 was a "pessimistic" year for many Americans, which of course, tends to work against any incumbent. Bush faced an economy that was mired in recession and a mounting federal deficit. Many felt a change in direction was needed. IX. THE BUSH FOREIGN POLICY A. PANAMA: December 20, 1989 1. Bush received broad bi-partisan support for the brief US invasion of Panama 2. The goal of the invasion was the deposing of Manuel Noriega 3. The "crack" cocaine addiction of the 1980s became a centerpiece of Bush's domestic focus (the "war on drugs") 4. The US had compelling evidence that Noriega was involved in drug smuggling operations 5. Although getting rid of Noriega was the biggest motive for the invasion, Bush also cited that we were going in to safeguard the lives of US citizens living in Panama (we still controlled the Canal) and to restore democracy. 6. Noriega eventually turned himself in to US authorities, was tried, and found guilty of drug trafficking and racketeering. B. DEALING WITH THE SOVIET UNION 1. Turmoil in Eastern Europe was driving US policy with the Soviets at this point 2. Democratic reforms and the overthrow of Soviet-installed regimes happened almost overnight and Bush was the first President that had to confront that situation 3. Bush and Gorbachev had met in 1989 (Malta). Building on the negotiations that had begun under Reagan, Bush and Gorby moved successfully on several fronts. Rykken6 a. Bush announced in January of 1990 that the US would cut its troop strength in Europe to 195,000 (down from as many as 500,000 during the height of the Cold War) b. By late 1990, the Soviets accepted the notion of a unified Germany with full German membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) c. On July 31, 1991, Bush and Gorbachev signed START I which mandated cuts of 30-40% in the nuclear arsenals of both sides 4. Bush and Yeltsin a. In almost breathtaking fashion, the Soviet Union ceased to exist in 1991 and was replaced by the Russian Federation. Boris Yeltsin was the leader of the new entity. b. Bush and Yeltsin continued the arms negotiations initiated in the START Process C. THE GULF WAR (We will deal with this separately) D. NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT (NAFTA) 1. Trade agreement negotiated with Mexico and Canada 2. The central notion was to pursue "free and open markets" across borders 3. Initiated intense ratification debate that carried over to Clinton Rykken7
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