Forum: Security Council
Issue: The question of the continuing instability in the former Warsaw Pact countries
Student Officer: Mattia Colombo
I-Introduction
Since the official dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialists Republics (USSR) and of the Treaty
of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance (Warsaw Pact) there have been 24 conflicts in
the former USSR and Warsaw Pact territories. Some of those are currently being fought, some
others are recognised as Frozen Conflicts. The area is subject to perpetual political and conflictual
instability. A situation of great instability like the one present in these areas, influences also the
political and economical landscape of countries that are not currently part of those conflicts and
degradates the regions in which strifes are present. The situation should be, therefore, brought back
to stability.
II-Definition of Key Terms
●Frozen Conflict:A conflict is defined frozen when active armed conflict has been brought to an
end, yet the issue causing the conflict hasn’t been solved, since the two entities engaging war
haven’t come to an agreement. The conflict may, therefore, reignite at any moment, thus creating an
unsafe and unstable environment. Such conditions have often been imposed on territorial disputes.
In order for a conflict to become frozen there must be an entity with a superior power to the one of
the combatants that imposes a ceasefire.
●Mujaheddin: Islamic guerilla fighter
●Casus Belli: Anact that causes a war
III-History of the Warsaw Pact
The 4th of April 1949 in Washington D.C., 12 countries (USA, France, UK, Canada, Italy,
Belgium, Portugal, Luxembourg, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Netherlands), signed the Atlantic
Treaty, which gave birth to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - Organisation du Traité de
l'Atlantique Nord (NATO-OTAN). In the mid- 1950s the US and a number of other NATO
members began to advocate making West Germany part of the alliance and allowing it to form a
national army under restrictions. The USSR warned that it would have taken its measures against
such a provocative action. West Germany joined NATO on the 5th of May 1955. On the 14th of
May 1955 the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance or Warsaw Pact was
signed.
The members of the Warsaw Pact were: the USSR, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, the German
Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania.
Members of the Warsaw Pact (Author: Wikipedia User Nafignafig)
The signing of the Warsaw Pact consisted in the creation of the Political Consultant Committee,
which handled political issues and the Combined Command of the Pact Armed Force, a
multinational army with the purpose of defending the Pact’s members. During the 36 years since the
birth of the Warsaw Pact until the end of the Cold War, the NATO and the Warsaw Pact never
directly fought against each other. The two most important events to which the Warsaw Pact’s
Soviet Army took part were the removal of Imre Nagy’s government in Hungary after the
declaration of Hungary’s withdrawal from the Pact and the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia, which
stopped Alexander Dubček’s liberalisation during the Prague Spring. Following the actuation of the
Perestroika and Glasnost reforms in the USSR, which brought to its fall, and the deposing of
communist governments in other member nations, the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and
Mutual Assistance was officially disbanded in 1991.
IV-History of the Instability in Europe and Caucasus
During the period of decline of the USSR one conflict began, this being the following:
●Nagorno-Karabakh War: In 1988, towards the end of the Soviet Union, this conflict began in the
region of Nagorno-Karabakh, geographically located in Azerbaijan. The war was fought between
the Azerbaijani troops and groups of Armenian secessionists. The region, which is mostly inhabited
by Catholic Armenians, was included in the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan when the
Soviets took control over the area in the 1920s. Towards the 1980s the URSS influence loosened
and the frictions between the Azerbaijani and Armenian exploded into war. After the dissolution of
the CCCP, the region declared itself independent, thus fuelling the war. It is currently controlled by
the ethnic Armenian, yet its status has not been recognised. In 1994 the Russian Federation ordered
a ceasefire and the conflict is considered a frozen war. Hostilities reignite periodically even
nowadays.
During the years following the end of the USSR and of the Warsaw Treaty at least 23 conflicts
started in what was previously known as the Soviet Bloc, those being the following:
●First South Ossetia War:South Ossetia is geographical part of Georgia, although its inhabitants are
believed of descending from tribes which migrated in the region from Asia. In twilight of the Soviet
Union, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, a nationalist, became the President of Georgia, thus fuelling the
separatist sentiment in the South Ossetians. In 1991 the region declared its intent in seceding, which
ended up in several strifes between the Ossetian and the Georgian army. In 1992 the region declared
itself independent. During 1992 the strifes periodically continued, until the Russian Federation
imposed the ceasefire and the two countries came to an agreement. South Ossetia became a de facto
independent region, while still being part of Georgia. The agreement only prevented the conflict to
reignite, while not completely solving the issue.
●War in Abkhazia: During the 80s, when the Georgian Anti-Soviet movement started demanding
independence from the USSR, the Pro-Soviet Abkhazia started its movement for independence
from Georgia. The conflict ignited when Abkhazian troops attacked Georgian Students that were
protesting against the secession. The first conflicts began during 1990, but the real war began in
1992, when Abkhazian troops attacked Government buildings in Sukhumi. The Confederation of
Mountain Peoples of the Caucasus and ethnically Armenians soldiers supported Abkhazia. After
many episodes of ethnic cleansing perpetrated by both sides and after several ceasefires, in 1993 the
war ended thanks to Russian support to Abkhazia. Since then Abkhazia has been a de facto
Independent state. The conflict reignited in 1998 with the Six-Days war in Abkhazia, it started on
May the 18th 1998 and the ceasefire was negotiated on May the 26th 1998.
●Georgian Civil War:Zviad Gamsakhurdia, as the first President of Georgia had to deal with both
Ossetian and Abkhaz separatists. In 1991 the opposition against the Gamsakhurdia Government
organised a Demonstration in Tbilisi which was suppressed by the police, this resulted in the
increasing of popularity of the Opposition Movement, which took control over Tbilisi, forcing the
President to escape. The Opposition Movement started to attack Pro-Gamsakhurdia protesters.
Thanks to the Presence of the so called “Zviadists” Gamsakhurdia was able to keep control over the
nation from Armenia. In 1993, Gamsakhurdia took advantage of the struggle in Abkhazia that the
new Government was facing, and returned to Georgia. Eduard Shevardnadze was at the
Government and the offensive led by Gamsakhurdia made him join the Commonwealth of
Independent States in order to obtain military help from Russia. The Russian and Georgian forces
contrasted the action of the Zviadists and Gamsakhurdia was forced to escape whilst being chased
by governmental forces. He died under mysterious circumstances and it was reported that he had
shot himself. The Georgian Civil war lasted 3 years and shaped Georgian Society, the political
instability generated by it lasted for over a decade. In 2004 Zviad Gamsakhurdia was rehabilitated
by the President and his supporters were released from prison.
●East Prigorodny Conflict:The conflict began in 1992, since the Prigorodny District, whose
population is ethnically Ingush, started demanding independence from Russia. The conflict had
ethnic grounds, since there is tension between Ingush people and Ossetian, who inhabit the region
in which the District is located. Russian forces contrasted both the contendants, while favoriting the
Ossetian. Tension is still present between the two populations.
●Transnistria War:The dissolution of the USSR was the main cause of the Transnistrian War, since
it was generated by the desire of Transnistria, which was at the time a part of Moldova and is
geographically collocated between Moldova and Ukraine, to maintain deep connection with both
Russia and Ukraine. At the time ⅔ of Moldovans were of Romanian descents and wanted to have a
closer link with Romania, this contrast generated a conflict between Transnistria and Moldova since
Transnistrians didn’t agree with this policy and, therefore, wanted independence. At the time
Moldova officially adopted Moldovan as the official language even though Transnistrians were and
still are Russophones. In 1992, some separatists backed by Russia attacked Moldova. The conflict
between lasted only 4 months, in June 1992 a ceasefire was signed by Boris Yeltsin and the
Moldovan president at the time,Mircea
Snegur. Today Transnistria is an independent state recognized only by Nagorno-Karabakh,
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia has not recognized the country, but maintains a consulate in its
territory. Recently the country has been under coverage by Western Media, since its annexation to
Russia would create the conditions for a further isolation of Ukraine from the rest of Europe.
●Russian constitutional crisis:In 1993 President Boris Yeltsin adopted an economic policy that
made prices increase, decreased government spending and increased taxes. Vice President
Alexander Rutskoy declared the policy an “economic genocide”, The Supreme Soviet and the
Congress People’s Deputies also opposed the reforms Yeltsin extended the Presidential mandate in
order to carry out the reforms. The Parliament responded by refusing to nominate Yegor Gaigar, the
man who had theorised the “shock therapy” as prime minister and took on the control over the
parliamentary army. Yeltsin and the Parliament then agreed on giving the latter the power to
nominate prime ministers. The Parliament then voted to amend the Constitution and strip Yeltsin of
his powers,in the following months it started gaining more and more power to the detriment of the
presidency. Yeltsin signed to earn special power, the Heads of the Parliament declared the action
unconstitutional, yet the constitutional court did not. Yeltsin took on power with a coup d’etat and
declared the Supreme Soviet dissolved, during mass protest there were casualties. Yeltsin pushed
his new constitution through, yet the new Parliament voted against his economic reform.
●First and Second Chechen War:In 1991 Chechnya, a tiny oil-rich region in North Caucasus,
declared independence under the name of Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, in 1994 Russian Troops
invaded Grozny, the capital of Chechnya and started what was thought to be a “blitzkrieg”, however
the conflict lasted 2 years and ended on the 30th of August 199, when the Khasav-Yurt Accord was
signed. Said Accord consisted of a formal ceasefire. The situation remained stable until 1999.
Among the chechens separatists there were islamists that declared jihad on all the Russians, said
guerrillas were quickly dubbed “freedom fighters” by the Western medias. The attempt to create a
central Government in Chechnya failed because of the presence of said jihadists, most of those were
part of a puritanical movement name Wahhabism which was in contrast with Chechnya’s Sufi
traditions. Wahhabists controlled small zones of Chechnya and when the Mufti of the Chechen
Republic of Ichkeria and later President of the Chechen Republic, Akhmad Abdulkhamidovič
Kadyrov, publically opposed them. Kadyrov allied with the new Russian Prime minister, Vladimir
Putin, in order to contrast the action of jihadists. In 1999 the Second Chechen War started, on one
side the Russian army together with some Chechen Clans, on the other the Republic of Ichkeria
together with various Mujahedins. In 2003 the Chechen Republic, a Republic within the Russian
Federation, was born and Kadyrov was elected president. The separatists started attacking Russia.
The jihadists targeted the Russian population through suicide bomber, one of which killed Kadyrov.
Kadyrov’s son, Ramzan Kadyrov came into power and was elected president three years later, in
2007. The so called “freedom fighters” became “Islamic insurgents” in the Western media coverage
of the matter. In 2009 the situation had been solved and the remaining conflicts were left to the
police to be dealt with. The conflict ended with Russia’s victory and the leader of the separatist
movement urged other separatists to stop the conflict. Kadyrov is considered an eccentric leader and
has been accused of having used paramilitary squads in order to harm jihadists’ families, separatists
and civilians who aided them. Today Chechnya is a “de facto” independent state, which however, is
loyal to the Kremlin.
●War of Dagestan: The war in Dagestan began when the Islamic International Brigade (IBB)
invaded Dagestan, the war lasted two months and began in september 1999. The IBB came from
Chechnya and declared parts of Dagestan and Chechnya independents, whilst declaring a holy war
against Russia. The Russian-Dagestani army wiped out the jihadists and the War of Dagestan
constituted the casus belli for the Second Chechen War, since the IBB came from Chechnya and
many Islamic separatist groups from Chechnya perpetrated the concept of holy war against the
Russians and supported the IBB.
●Pankisi Gorge Crisis: The Pankisi Gorge area is the region of Georgia in which Islamist forces
have their bases and from which they send support to jihadists in Chechnya and other Islamist
groups. In the early 2000 a situation of political crisis was generated by the pressures of both the
USA and Russia towards Georgia because of the situation in the Pankisi Gorge region. On
September 2003 Georgia regained full control over the region and in January 2005 Georgia
withdrew its Internal troops. The situation in Pankisi Gorge is not yet solved, since many Pankisi
are militants in the Caucasus Emirate and jihadists organisations are still present in the region.
●2004 Adjara Crisis: The Adjara Crisis was a political crisis between the central powers of Georgia
and the autonomous republic of Adjara since the president of Georgia at the time, Mikhail
Saakashvili wanted to impose the central government’s authority over the region and this policy
was in contrast with policy of maintaining power adopted by the President of Adjara, Aslan
Abashidze. The contrast between the two generated political instability. The small region of Adjara
was governed at the time by the Abashidze family and there was particular tension at the time
between Tbilisi and Batumi, Adjara’s capital, because of the “Rose Revolution” which had just
struck the country and which overthrew the previous political order of Georgia. Abashidze asked
Moscow for aid, since Russia detained a military base in Adjara. Military confrontation became a
reality when Saakashvili was denied access to Adjara in March 2004. The two leaders started
accusing each others and sending each other ultimatums. In May protest rallies against Abashidze
were organised in Batumi. Georgian Special Forces entered Batumi and disarmed pro-Abashidze
militants, Abashidze flew to Russia later that day, after a meeting with Russian Security Council
Igor Ivanov.
●War in Ingushetia: The Republic of Ingushetia is a republic within the Russian Federation, it is
located in the North Caucasus region and its inhabitants, the Ingush have close historical, cultural
and linguistic ties with the Chechen. The Ingush never shared the desire to resist the Russian
Domination, which is typical of the inhabitants of Chechnya. Ingushetia was made part of the
Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Republic during the Soviet rule. After a series of attacks carried out
by radical Muslims, in 2007 the War in Ingushetia began. The war has been described as a civil war
by human rights activists and by the opposition. The Government described the conflict as an
uprising. In 2009, after an attempt on the life of President Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, in which 25
people died. Moscow introduced new security measures and many militants linked to the attempt
were arrested. In 2015 President Yunus-Bek Yevkurov announced the end of the conflict. As of
2016 only few North Caucasus Militants remain present and active in the Ingush territory.
●Russo-Georgian War: In 2008 tensions between Russia and Georgia rose, once again over the fate
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The casus belli was the shooting down of an unmanned Georgian
Drone in Abkhazia. The drone was shot down by a Russian missile. In April Russia started sending
unarmed troops over to Abkhazia in order to counter a possible Georgian incursion. Georgia
accused Russia of planning a military intervention. In August South Ossetian attacked Georgian
peacekeeper, thus breaking a ceasefire. Georgian troops entered the region, in response to this
Russia moved its troops to the front and began air strikes in South Ossetia. After diplomatic action,
the 15th of August 2008 a ceasefire was signed by Russian and Georgian representatives. Russia
withdrew its troops, however Russia formally recognised South Ossetia and Abkhazia as
independent.
V-History of the Instability in Central Asia
●Tajikistan Civil War: In 1991 the Supreme Soviet declared Tajikistan independent. Tajikistani
Communist Leader Rahmon Nabiyev won the elections and became the first President of Tajikistan.
In 1992 anti government demonstrations escalated into civil war between Islamists, pro-democratic
forces and pro-government forces. Nabiyev was subsequently obliged to resign and Emomali
Rahmonov, a pro-Nabiyev communist, took control over the nation. In 1994 a ceasefire was
negotiated between the government and the rebels, a new constitution was voted through
referendum and the presidential system was reestablished. Rahmonov was voted President of
Tajikistan. Rahmonov holds the position of President of Tajikistan even to these days. Conflicts
later started on the Afghan border, with the Afghan taliban factions supporting the Tajikistani
Islamists. In 1997 the conflict ended, Rahmonov and the United Tajik Opposition (UTO) negotiated
a peace accord, and a National Reconciliation Commision was formed. Rahmonov negotiated peace
also with the Islamists by appointing one of the Islamist faction leaders First Deputy Prime
Minister. In 2000 the National Reconciliation Commision had its last meeting in which it was
decided to change currency and institute a bicameral parliament.
●2010 South Kyrgyzstan Ethnic Clashes:On April the 7th 2010 President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was
ousted and this generated tensions in the southern region of Kyrgyzstan. Some Pro-Bakiyev
members of the Kyrgyz community seized Govern officicies and took hostages, whilst the Uzbek
population showed sympathy for the new government, led by Roza Otunbayeva, the new interim
president. Confrontations began between Kyrgyzs and Uzbeks in the area of Osh. An other reason
for the clashes is the unsatisfaction of the Uzbeks in the terms of representation in the Government
and integration. After the end of the conflict, Kyrgyzstan Government decided to put in action an
ethnic integration plan, in order to prevent similar conflicts in the future.
VI-Euromaidan and Russo-Ukrainian Conflicts
On November the 21st 2013 approximately 2000 protestants gathered in Maidan Nezalezhnosti in
Kiev, the protest started after the Government suspended the preparation for signing the EU
Association Agreement. Pro-EU parties and the opposition led the protest in the following days.
The 24th of November between 50000 and 200000 people gathered in the Maidan chanting
“Ukraine is Europe”, some protesters attempted to storm the Government Building. Both Protesters
and the Police used Tear Gas in the confrontations. On the 26th the Prime Minister announced the
continuation of the negotiating process over the Association Agreement. Universities started
checking attendance in order to collect the names of the students that were participating to the
protest and forbade the students to join the protest. On the 29th of November it became clear that
Ukraine did not sign the Agreement. The 30th November special police units attacked the protesters
and civilians in the proximity of the Maidan with batons, stun grenades and tear gas. On the same
day the opposition parties set up the Headquarters of National Resistance all over Ukraine. Riots
began on the 1st of December. The 11th of December clashes with police started, which would have
gone on until February and that turned in what is known as the 2014 Ukrainian Revolution between
the 18th and the 24th of February. The Revolution resolved with President Yanukovych fleeing to
Russia and the dismissal of the second Azarov Government. Russia recognised the Revolution as a
coup d’etat.
A new government was formed, formally led by the “Fatherland” party, a centre right party,
however this government was implemented with members and former members of “Svoboda” and
the Right Sector, members of the defunct “UNA-UNSO” and “Tryzub” were given, together with
the already mentioned members of “Svoboda”, key positions in the Ministry of Defense, the Armed
Forces, Law Enforcement, National Security and Intelligence.
The victory of the Maidan protestor also brought to the repeal of the Law on regional languages,
which created contrast between Kiev and Crimea.
Crimea is a russophone region, which is officially part of Ukraine.
In Crimea after the Ukrainian coup d’etat, control was taken by Kremlin-backed forces and, in 2014
the Crimean population voted to join Russia, such referendum is considered illegal by the Western
World and Ukraine. The UN GA adopted a resolution, which recognises the aforementioned
referendum as illegal in March 2014.
In March 2014 a different conflict started in Ukraine, more precisely in the regions of Donetsk and
Luhansk, together called Donbass. The Donbass area is the industrial and russophone core of
Ukraine. After the Revolution, in this area some pro-Russian demonstrations were held, this
demonstration quickly turned in conflicts, in which the Russian Federation supposedly funds and
supports the rebels. After two ineffective
ceasefires, the conflict is currently frozen, with the coming into effect of the third ceasefire on
september the 1st 2016. In 2015 the Rebels and Russia negotiated with Ukraine in Minsk, the result
of the summit is the decision that Donbass will not secede, however will have region elections and
will be given some special powers and autonomies. Ukraine will not call elections until its control
over the Ukraine-Russia border is restored, the rebels are not willing to give such concession.
VII-Situation in Affected countries
The dissolution of the Warsaw Pact meant the birth of 15 nations, most of those are broken,
corrupted and in crisis situations and have been since their very birth. There are few exceptions, the
most memorable being the Baltic Republics: Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Said countries have
completely and successfully adapted to the western world and may today be considered western
countries. The Baltic Republics are part of NATO, the EU and the Eurozone. The Baltic Republics
utilised the technology left by the USSR in order to specialise in informatics and electronics, the
actuation of such a cleaver development plan is what made the Baltic Republics part of the Western
World so quickly.
There are few dictatorships, countries like Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Turkmenistan, in
which former Communist Party leaders and functionaries have taken power after the end of the
USSR and are still in power today.
There is Russia, which is struggling to maintain control through political and economic influence
over the former East Bloc.
The vast majority of the countries is in either in a political or economic crisis, sometimes both. The
presence of crises together with the presence of frozen conflicts that are still unresolved to these
days created a situation of decadence in most of the 15 countries, with the most memorable one
being Georgia, which is still struggling with three frozen conflicts.
The presence of Islamic terrorist groups such as ISIS and affiliated organization in the Caucasus
and in Central Asia is also a problem, since many countries are currently struggling in order to
disband Islamists, fight terrorism and create a peaceful environment for their citizens.
Source: The Guardian, Justin Burke, “Post-Soviet world: what you need to know about the 15
states”, 9/06/14
VIII-Possible Solutions
The problem of instability is vast and impossible to cover in its vastness, yet most of the wars share
common grounds.
One of the main reasons for the continuous instability in the ex-Soviet Bloc is the presence of
profound and numerous unrecognised ethnical differences. The lack of a strong central Government
that was present in the past is at the basis of the instability in the area, since countries felt and feel
entitled to impose their cultural control over all the ethnically groups present in the area they want
to control. There are many possible solutions to the problem, the first one is the regulamentation of
the Self-determination principle, already present in the UN’s Charter, under International Law,
which would give countries like Abkhazia and South Ossetia recognition and would take away, for
instance, Georgia’s justifications on perpetuating the war and on trying to reestablish control over
the area. Said regulations, however should also cover in which cases Self Determination isn’t
recognised and the most obvious way to determine whether an ethnicity should or should not be
allowed to determine whether or not to be a part of a certain country or another one, is to establish a
Court with the only purpose of deliberating on such a topic. Another possible solution includes
giving ethnicities more control over the area in which they are present, whilst still being part of the
country.
An other reason is the development of political instability in the area because of the sudden
disappearing of the central government that controlled all the USSR. Sadly, since this problem
wasn’t covered when it first presented itself, there is nothing much that can be done about it,
however in the East Bloc countries there is the creation a new political class is needed, a political
that differs from the previous one, which was mainly made up by ex-USSR functionaries. Education
is fundamental in giving birth to this new political class so, the encouragement and establishment of
educational programmes with the aim of both creating a sense of citizenship and generating interest
towards politics could improve the situation.
One of the causes of many of the conflicts in the Area, especially in the North Caucasus Region in
the presence of Islamic Terrorist Groups such as ISIS affiliated groups and the North Caucasus
Emirate. Taking action against Jihadist groups is mandatory in order to reach a peaceful or semi
peaceful situation in the area.
IX-Sources and Useful Links
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2014/12/chechnya-russia-20-years-conflict-20
14121161310580523.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/13/world/europe/2008-georgia-russia-conflict/index.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/country_profiles/default.stm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/09/-sp-profiles-post-soviet-states
http://www.bbc.com/news/10313948
http://journal-neo.org/2016/08/03/western-coup-in-ukraine-an-ongoing-disaster/
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/03/11/jean-claude-juncker-damns-obama-plan-forukraine.html
http://journal-neo.org/2015/10/10/threat-of-terrorism-in-central-asia/