Let a Thousand Variants Bloom
The Evolution of the Chinese Civil War and the Long, Twilight Struggle
by Jason Matthews
"You fell victim to one of the classic blunders!
The most famous is never get involved in a
land war in Asia . . ."
— Vizzini in film The Princess Bride, 1987
This sage advice was also purportedly
relayed by General Douglas MacArthur to
President John F. Kennedy (D). After the
Bay of Pigs fiasco in Cuba in 1961, Kennedy
was also struggling to develop a coherent
policy for the Vietnam conflict. For his part,
MacArthur believed Kennedy was getting
very poor advice from the Pentagon. From
the Philippines in WWII to the Korean War,
MacArthur had come by his wisdom the hard
way. After the debacle at the Yalu River in
1950, China must have been front and center
in his thinking.
American Relations With Imperial China
But military entanglements with China
were not always a strategic taboo. From the
19th Century onward, the interaction between
the West and China has been both complex
and largely unhappy. Chinese relations with
Britain, France and Russia followed the
familiar pattern of mercantilism succeeded
by pseudo or actual colonialism. This pattern
found its ugliest illustration in the Opium
Wars, when Britain forced Chinese ports to
remain open to imported opium at bayonet
point. Even in the context of the time, the
war was seen as an act of exploitation and
cynicism.
Yet, early on, the United States was able to
stand apart from the darker elements of this
relationship. America was a relatively young
country with her own knee-jerk resentment
of the imperial powers. U.S. policy toward
China was largely dictated by three sometimes conflicting interests: trade, religion and
immigration. The trade interest was obvious
and still has contemporary reverberations.
Even then, China was a potentially enormous
market, and the United States had a surplus of
goods that required customers. The American missionary experience in China can be
tied to the Great Awakening of the 1850s.
American Protestants were caught up in a
new zeal for social activism. It had enormous
repercussions for many aspects of American
life, but particularly curious was its impact
on US foreign policy. Finally, another ugly
current running through American thought
was "yellow peril." This was essentially a
fear held by the majority of Americans that
they would be overwhelmed by Asian im-
Imperialism French political cartoon (late 1890s) shows a pie
—
representing "Chine" (French for China) being divided between
Queen Victoria (UK), William II (Germany), Nicholas II (Russia), the
FrenchMarianne and the MeijiEmperor (Japan). AstereotypicalQing
official throws up his hands to try and stop them, but is powerless.
migration. Naturally enough, this concern
emanated from California which was still in
the throes of a gold rush. But compounding
the need for imported Chinese labor was the
epic scale of railroad construction occurring
across the country and epitomized by the
"golden spike" of the transcontinental railroad.
In 1882, the fear of Chinese immigration
sparked Congressional legislation known as
the Chinese Exclusion Law. It put a total ban
on the import of Chinese labor. Though the
law was met by diplomatic protests, China was
perceived as too weak to press the case for her
citizens during the Chinese Diaspora. Shockingly, these laws remained on the books until
well into the Second World War.
While US missionaries had a mitigating
impact on US policy, the Chinese gradually
viewed Americans through the same lens as
other western powers in China. It is true
that the United States issued the Hay notes,
seeking to prevent the "carving up" of China
into spheres of influence. However, America's
"Open Door" policy really reflected US
commercial concerns more than any principled interest in Chinese self-determination.
Commenting on US East Asian policy, one
historian has characterized it as "sentimental
imperialism," and that seems to reflect the
Sino-American experience nicely.
By the 1890s, the United States had fully
become "one of the gang" as demonstrated by
the targeting of American missionaries and
US participation in the suppression of the
Boxer Rebellion.
That unhappy episode in Sino-American
relations was brought on by Chinese resentment of repeated humiliations by the West.
The Boxers were a Chinese religious and
martial arts cult. They believed that it was
their destiny to drive Western influence from
China. The Boxers were also certain that they
were impervious to Western bullets. Tragically for their cause, neither proved to be the
case. In perhaps a vision of things to come,
the western nations, including the United
States, assembled forces to relieve the Boxer's
Siege of Peking. After the West's victory, the
Empress Dowager, who had first covertly,
and then brazenly supported the Boxers, was
compelled to even greater humiliation. At the
dawn of the 20th Century, the Qing dynasty
hung on by a thread. It was a thread that
would be cut quickly.
Russian Relations With Imperial China
Russian Relations With Imperial China
stretch back to 1669. In that year, Tsar Ivan
the IV and Emperor Kangxi concluded
the treaty of Nerchinsk. It turned out to
be a precedent setting event for China. In
all of her previous treaties, foreign nations
were dealt with by the "Ministry of Tributory Affairs." In other words, a subordinate
entity that was to pay tribute to the Middle
Kingdom. However, the Treaty of Nerchinsk,
setting the border between China and Russia,
elevated Russia to the same status as "those
pesky Mongols"— a non-tributory kingdom.
But despite this early precedent of equality, Russian policy towards China has always
had a whiff of avarice. Like her longstanding
efforts to acquire Constantinople, Russia's
strategy revolved around access to year round
ports. Vladivostok in Siberia was an important part of Russia's pacific ambitions, but
like St. Petersburg in the West, it was subject
to the limitations of the weather and ice.
However, Port Arthur, located in Manchuria, would provide a linchpin for Russian
power projection into the Sea of Japan and
throughout China. As with the other imperial
powers, Russia was eager to carve the Chinese
melon. She acquired a "sphere of influence"
over Manchuria and a lease on Port Arthur
Historical Background — Chinese Civil War Variant — Twilight Struggle
that did not technically expire until 2003.
The Russians were also eager to capitalize on
Manchuria's natural resources. The Manchurian Railway symbolized Russia's economic
dominance of the region. It also strengthened
the development and communications network for the Russian Far East and Vladivostok. Integrated into the Trans-Siberian
Railroad, the Manchurian Railway epitomizes
the colony without empire approach followed
by many powers in China.
The Russian sphere of influence also created a bizarre footnote of history known as
the "Harbin" Russians. Harbin, China is a
city in Manchuria established by Russian
railway workers and construction teams.
Since it
was built from scratch, the architecture of
the original buildings is obviously Russian.
Harbin became an important stop on the
Manchurian railway, and after the Russian
Revolution played host to 200,000 White
Russians fleeing the revolution. For a time,
Harbin China was the last preserve of Imperial Russia. Over the course of time, many of
these Harbin Russians returned to the Soviet
Union or moved elsewhere in China or to the
west. Nevertheless, the Soviet Union insisted
on occupying Harbin at the end of World War
II, and rounded up any remaining "enemies" of
the Soviet Union.
Russian ambitions in China ebbed sharply
in 1905. The damage was not done by the
hands of Chinese nationalists. Rather, it was
Japan that delivered a devastating blow to
Russian prestige. The Russo-Japanese War
announced to the world the emergence of
Japan as a great power, and was an important
tipping point in Tsarist Russia's decline and
ultimate collapse during the Furst World War.
The casus belli for the war — an extension of the
Manchurian railway.
Thus, Russia would begin the 20th Century
with a wounded sense of pride where China
was concerned. Her once significant holdings
had been largely surrendered to the Japanese.
Additionally, she did not have the internal
strength for foreign adventure.
The Kuomintang Triumphant
Students of Chinese history will recognize
the familiar fin de siecle patterns of China in
the 1930s. Once again a tottering and corrupt
dynasty was pushed over the edge. China's vast
territory descended into a period of warlordism. The overthrow of the imperial dynasty
began in earnest on October 11th, 1910. Dr.
Sun Yat Sen had been waiting in the wings,
in the United States, where he was raising
money from the wealthy Chinese immigrants.
He was elected provisional president of the
Republic of China. But the intellectual leader
of the movement had not considered the selfserving nature of the leadership of its military
arm. Yuan Shikai insisted on leading the first
Republican Government, and used his post
to transform the new republic into a classical
military dictatorship. The Kuomintang was
formed from the opposition to Yuan. This
would devolve into a series of small wars between successive claimants to the
government in Beijing. In the meantime,
Sun and his May Fourth Movement
established its own government in Southern
China. Ultimately, Sun Yat Sen would seek
Moscow's help in its war of national
liberation and unity. Soviet intelligence on
the Chinese communist party at the time was
that it was too weak to lead a national
movement. By contrast, the Komintang
already had a substantial membership. By
1923, Soviet advisers began to arrive in
China to help organize the Kuomintang along
Communist Party lines. In one of the great
ironies of history, Chiang Kai Shek would
be an early participant in this collaboration.
By 1925, Dr. Sen had died of cancer, leaving
Chiang Kai Shek as his natural successor.
Chiang decided to undertake the long delayed
campaign against the northern warlords. His
campaign was a resounding success, and the
Western Powers, having cynically recognized
successive warlord regimes in Beijing, rather
quickly latched onto Chiang's new "legitimate" government.
However, Chiang's success also gave
breathing space for the Kuomintang's internal
squabbles to come to the fore. The uneasy
coalition of left wing and right wing groups
began to unravel, and Chiang moved
decisively to ensure that the right wing prevailed. Ultimately, the Chinese Communist
Party and the left wing of the KMT decided
to splinter off. In the Chinese equivalent of
the Night of the Long Knives, on April 12th
1927, Chiang ordered communists within the
KMT in Shanghai to be arrested and several
executed. This same purge of communists
was then carried to the other Kuomintang
controlled provinces of China. By 1928,
Chiang could reasonably claim to be in control of all of China. He established his capitol
in Nanjing, and began "phase 2"— political
tutelage — of Dr. Sen's three stage plan of
national revolution.
Enter The Rising Sun
Having defeated Imperial China and
Russia in successive wars, Japan had become
the preeminent actor in Manchuria. But,
Japanese ambitions did not end there. At
first, neither side was in a position to indulge
in full-scale conflict. So, the war began in fits
and starts through a series of "incidents."
The first such occasion was called the
Mukden incident of 1931. It was used by the
Japanese to justify the occupation of Man
churia. They established the puppet state
of Manchukuo and placed Pu Yi, the last
Qing emperor of China, as its nominal head.
However, in 1937, the Incident at Marco Polo
Bridge finally brought the gloves off, and
full-scale war ensued. The war effort forced
another truce between Chaing's forces and
the Communists, but it was never much more
than an uneasy truce. Japan made enormous
territorial gains up through 1938, though
the Nationalist government was capable of
the occasional heroic stand, as at Shanghai.
Ultimately though, the Kuomintang was
forced into a scorched earth approach. As the
Chinese retreated further and further into the
interior, Japanese manpower was stretched
too thin for further gains. A virtual stalemate
was reached by 1940. Japan had not attained
its true objective. The Japanese government
had hoped to partition China into a series of
pliant puppet states similar to Manchukuo. In
so doing, they sought to guarantee an outlet
for Japanese industry and population, while
at the same time, ensuring desperately needed
raw materials. Yet, apan's methods in China
created a bitter resistance to their objective.
Japan's puppet governments were next to
useless, having no legitimacy either locally or
internationally. They ensured no cooperation,
safety or commerce. Only Japanese soldiers
could do that. So, apan continued to feel
the pinch of the western embargoes of raw
materials, and its control of China extended
no further than the cities and the railroads.
Japan's ongoing need for raw materials
ultimately led her down a course that radically
altered the strategic balance in the Second
Sino-Japanese War. On December 7th, 1941
Japan bombed the U.S. Pacific Fleet laying at
anchor in Pearl Harbor. Overnight, China
went from an international sideshow, to a central front in the Western strategy for defeating
Japan. The Sino-American relationship would
once again be the most important one in Asia.
America had already been involved in the
margins of the Sino-Japanese conflict. There
were volunteer efforts like the famous Flying
Tigers that were fighting with Chinese forces
prior to U.S. entry into the war. But within a
year, the China, Burma, India (CBI) theater
would be a major focus of allied effort. As
coastal China was occupied by the Japanese, the United States needed to ensure an
overland route to its new erstwhile ally. This
overland route was threatened by the Japanese
who were compelling Commonwealth forces
to retreat from Burma and were placing
raising alarms within India itself. When the
Burma Road finally fell, the Chinese resupply
fell to allied aircraft. Ultimately, the United
States would build another overland road to
China, this one originating in Assam, India
Twilight Struggle — Chinese Civil War
and terminating in Kunming, China. The
newly supplied and armed Kuomintang army
demonstrated a growing competence. They
participated alongside allied forces in the
recapture of Burma. Furthermore, within
China they were able to draw Japanese into
ambushes and Pyrrhic victories such as the
series of battles at Hengyang-Changsha.
However, even with the Japanese threat
pressing all around, Chiang never forgot that
there were really two wars going on in China
at the same time. The Chinese Communists
had suffered a series of debilitating defeats,
but in 1936 the remnants of the Chinese
Communist armies had unified after the
"Long March" to Shaanxi Province. The epic
march also laid to rest the endless squabbling
over tactics and leadership within the Chinese
Communist Party. Mao Tse-tung was now
the unquestioned leader of the Communist
forces. While there was a nominal alliance
between Chiang and the Communists to resist
the Japanese, in truth, the Communist forces
rarely confronted Japanese forces directly.
Instead, they used the period to reorganize,
reequip and prepare for the resumption of
hostilities with the Kuomintang. Chiang
had something very similar in mind, but also
understood that if he was going to continue
to enjoy American favor and supplies, he must
show direct effort against the Japanese. Nevertheless, when the opportunity arose, Chiang
struck another blow against the Communists.
Kuomintang demanded that Communist New
Fourth Army abandon Anhui and Jiangsu
provinces. As they reluctantly complied, the
Kuomintang ambushed the withdrawing army
and decimated it. Thus ended what little
coordination existed between Chiang and
Mao's armies.
"Vinegar Joe" Stillwell
When the United States Army looked
around for an offucer to send to the Chinese
theater, there was really only one logical
choice for the job — Joseph Stillwell. "Vinegar Joe" as he would be called for his direct
and critical manner, had served three tours
in China and spoke fluent Chinese. At the
outbreak of the war, he was considered one
of the Army's most able corps commanders. However, his leadership of the theater
would be marked by endless squabbles over
commander authority. Stillwell was subjected
to a particularly clumsy command arrangement. He was Chiang's Chief of Staff, but he
was also the Deputy Commander-in-Chief
of the Theater. He tangled with the Commonwealth's Field Marshall Archibald Wavell,
as well as his brother officer Claire Chennault. But his greatest venom he reserved for
Chiang Kai Shek. He was convinced that the
Chinese were hoarding supplies and doing
everything that they could to avoid frontal
combat with the Japanese. Furthermore,
Stillwell was certain that the Chinese soldier
was as capable as any other in World War II.
What was required was reform of the Chinese
military leadership. That, of course, put him
on another direct collision course with Chiang
who relied on the Chinese offucer corps for
political support and legitimacy as much as
military leadership. In 1944, President Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) unceremoniously brought
Stillwell home. The reasons for his return are
still disputed, but tantalizingly, some accounts
indicate that Stillwell thought the United
States was backing the wrong side, and had
made some diplomatic inroads with Mao. He
may have even succeeded in getting Mao to
agree to US General offucers leading communist troops. Whatever his ultimate intentions,
they came to naught. FDR had determined
that Nationalist China was going to be one
of the great powers after the war, and Chiang
would be the leader of that state.
Yet even without Stillwell's reforms and
grand designs, the Japanese position in China
was crumbling. The last spasm of Japanese
strength was Operation Ichi go, targeted at
Chennault's recently constructed airbases
(an idea Stillwell had opposed). However, in
1945, the Chinese had pushed North from
Burma and had also taken Guangxi. General
Ablert Wendemyer, Stillwell's replacement,
had planned a further offensive with its objective set as Shanghai. However, the atomic
bombs dropped on Hiroshima on August 6th
and Nagasaki on August 9th cut short these
plans. Suddenly, the Soviets were in Manchuria, the Japanese were surrendering in droves,
and Chiang's army — which had been doing
some honest fighting — was worn and out of
position to exploit the peace.
"joined" the Nationalist cause before the war,
defected to the Japanese and participated in
their ineffectual, puppet governments. Chiang
did not really want these elements back in his
ranks, so he got too clever by half. He decided
to welcome the "reformed" warlords back to
the nationalist cause — but then left them in
hopeless positions against the Communists.
He reckoned that this course would assure the
destruction of the warlords while also bleeding the Chinese Communists. For the most
part, Chiang was correct about the impact on
the warlords and the Communists, but he did
not consider the result on Chinese popular
opinion. Popular resentment of the Nationalists for retreating before the Japanese advance
was already high. But for Chiang to associate
himself with the Quisling warlords was the
final straw. While a tactical success, the warlord gambit was a strategic defeat in the battle
for Chinese popular sentiment.
The Soviets, for their part, had launched
an enormous invasion of Manchuria in the
last month of the war. Eighty divisions came
pouring into "Manchukuo" between the
bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The
Soviets would also carry the offensive into
North Korea, and settle an old dispute about
the Kurile Islands and Sakahlin. Through an
agreement with Chiang, the Soviets occupied
Manchuria for a longer period than initially
imagined. Chiang used the breathing space to
arrange for an American airlift of his troops
to cities in Manchuria. The Soviets, ever
pragmatic and cynical, used the opportunity
to dismantle Manchuria's industrial base and
ship it back to the Soviet Union. Full scale
warfare between the Communists and the
Nationalists was avoided at this stage by negotiations between Chiang and Mao. When the
talks collapsed on June 26th, 1946 the "War of
National Liberation" resumed in earnest.
Jockeying For Position
The People's Republic
In the immediate aftermath WWII, the
United States insisted that Japanese forces
surrender to the Nationalist Army. But there
was one catch, in most of Japanese occupied
China, there was no Nationalist army. Furthermore, in Manchuria, the Communists had
been waging a guerrilla war for years. So they,
and their Soviet allies, were well positioned
to capitalize on the unexpected cessation of
hostilities. As a result, Chiang renewed the
struggle with Mao — facing a very serious
positional disadvantage. Unfortunately for
Chiang, he compounded his positional disadvantage with a strategic blunder that may very
well have cost him the war. With the Japanese
out of the picture, Chiang had two pressing
problems — the communists and the remaining warlords. Several of the warlords who had
Chiang's position in China crumbled
rather quickly. The battle against corruption
and the reform of internal administration
of Nationalist areas had been nearly wholly
neglected. Furthermore, in an effort to secure
Manchuria, Chiang had spread his forces too
thin. Now, rather than a consolidated force
with the capability to go on the offensive,
they were strung out along long supply lines
from central China. They went from a force
in being to a local constabulary — restricted to
defending themselves inside major cities. Not
surprisingly, initiative shifted to the Communists. The circumstances in Washington
also came into play. Firstly, it is important to
remember who Harry Truman (D) was, and
how he got there. When chosen to be FDR's
vice-president during his fourth term, Truman
-
Historical Background — Chinese Civil War Variant — Twilight Struggle
was a no-nonsense Senator from Missouri.
His reputation in Washington had been made
by ferreting out waste, fraud and corruption
among government contracts for the war.
One can only imagine his attitude toward the
Nationalist government when the very real
accounts of mismanagement and misappropriation reached his ears. Upon completion
of the famous "White Paper" outlining the
history of Sino-American relations and setting out a future course of American policy,
Truman is said to have remarked "They're all a
bunch of damned thieves!" George Marshall,
too, who Truman had sent to mediate between
Mao and Chiang, was doubtful that anything
other than direct US military intervention
would save the Nationalist government. That,
however, was not in the cards, for an American military looking to draw down after a long
war.
By early 1949, the writing was on the wall.
The Communists had taken Beijing without
a shot being fired, and in April of that year,
they crossed the Yangtze River meeting little
resistance. Nationalist troops everywhere were
defecting to the Communists and bringing
their equipment with them. Chiang was
in full-blown retreat south. On October
1st, 1949 Mao declared the existence of the
People's Republic of China. Chiang was able
to escape to Taiwan with 600,000 troops and
about 200,000 civilian refugees. He declared
Taipei to be the temporary capital of the
Republic of China. Mopping up operations
continued through 1950, but the Nationalists were able to defend their position at the
Battle of Kuningtou. Fought over the island
of Quemoy, this Nationalist victory was the
turning point that allowed for the present day
reality of "two Chinas."
and hundreds of tanks and aircraft to Mao.
However, being a peasant guerrilla army, most
of the advanced equipment was beyond the
Communists' ability to maintain. It would
require the defection of better-trained Nationalist troops to truly utilize these arms. Also on
the training front, the Soviets forced Japanese
POWs to assist in the training of Chinese
Communist forces. Some Japanese troops
actually fought and died for the Communist
cause. Finally, North Korea formed an important staging area for the Chinese Communists
and tens of thousands of Koreans from the
Russian occupied sector participated in the
fighting in China.
American Embarrassment
While American policy towards China
throughout the period had been somewhat indifferent, the onset of the Korean War would
change all of that. Suddenly, the complete
loss of the Nationalist cause was the source of
political embarrassment. President Truman
was compelled to dispatch the US 7th Fleet to
the Straights of Formosa. The Republicans in
Congress were howling "Who Lost China?"
This may have been in part a reaction to their
concern over losing the 1948 presidential
Soviet Assistance To Mao
Stalin's attitude toward the Chinese Communists and revolution in China had always
been cautious. Firstly, China's communist
movement simply did not comport with a
proper communist revolution. Mao decided
to use the peasant class as the base of his
revolution. Stalin had just spent the past 20
years brutally collectivising Russia's peasant
class. So from the very start, there was an element of suspicion and concern about Chinese
methods and approaches. Stalin seems to
have preferred Communist revolutions firmly
secured at Soviet bayonet point, rather than
spontaneously produced. Of course, these
concerns would ultimately result in a fullfledged break between Moscow and Beijing by
the time of Khrushchev. So, the Soviets were
slow to react and did not quite meet Chinese
communists expectations. However, they did
send thousands of rifles and artillery pieces
Mao Zedong (Wade-Giles: Mao Tse-tung)
(1893 —1976) was aChinese military and political leader who
led the Communist Party of China (CPC) to victory against
the
Kuomintang (KMT) in the Chinese Civil War, and was the leader of
the People's Republic of China (PRC) from its establishment in1949
until his death in 1976. Mao remains a controversial figure to this
day. He is generally held in high regard in mainland China.
However, many of Mao's socio-political programs, such as the
GreatLeap Forward andtheCultural Revolution, areblamed
for causing severe damage to the culture, society, economy,
and foreign relations of China, as well as a probable death toll
in the tens of millions.
election. But in any case, with difficulty in
China, Vietnam and Korea it was a refrain
that had resonance with the American people.
Though the House Committee on Unamerican Activities actually predated the Chinese
Civil War, it would find a new lease on life.
Furthermore, political demagogues like Joseph
McCarthy would be unleashed in the United
States Senate and send the American public
into a period of fear and introspection. Was
the United States really ready for the Communist challenge, or had we already lost?
Years later President Lyndon B. Johnson (D)
remarked that Truman's strategy for China left
him no choice but to back South Vietnam to
the hilt in the 1960's. The Chinese Civil War
has never technically ended. The uneasy truce
across the Taiwan Straights is a testament to
pragmatism in the face of power.
The Chinese Civil War
and Twilight Struggle
In short, the Chinese Civil War is conveniently swept under the rug in Twilight
Struggle. There are a number of uncertainties at the close of World War II that we fiat
into existence — Israel, Pakistan and India,
North and South Korea, a unified Vietnam
and a separate East Germany. There was
originally a subsystem for uniting and dividing
some of the countries where this was a real
possibility, but in the end this subsystem was
too cumbersome and did not really add any
interest to gameplay. Furthermore, it required
some impractical playing pieces — so we just
snapped our fingers and did away with it all.
We imposed the historical settlement on all of
these places.
However, in the case of China, that bit of
historical determinism also creates an inappropriate anachronism. As all players know,
we abstracted China's role in the Cold War
to a single card — initally possessed by the
Soviets. Yet, historically speaking, at the start
of the game the Soviets do not really possess
the China Card and are in no position to use
it. Furthermore, it does not require too great a
leap of imagination to assume that if the Soviets had not invested something in the Chinese
revolution, Mao and the United States might
have reached a modus vivendi. There is more
than a little evidence to suggest that Mao
wanted exactly that. So giving the Soviets the
China Card at the outset — face-up, is a clean
rule. But, it is probably less reflective of the
reality of the situation than it should be. So,
for people looking for a bit more historical
nuance to the Chinese situation in Twilight
Struggle, I offer the following variant.
(Continued on page 48 with the Chinese
Civil War Variant Rules.)