BOUNDARY DELIMITATION
BELIZE
Submitted to:
Elections and Boundaries Commission
February 2004
Submitted by the Task Force:
Mr. Gian Ghandi
Mrs. Noreen Fairweather
Mrs. Myrtle Palacio
BACKGROUND
A three person Task Force was appointed by the Elections and Boundaries Commission
with the following Terms of Reference:
1. Definition and limitations in the Constitution and the Representation of the
People Act
2. Geographical and statistical limitations
3. Recommendations in respect of impediments in:
a) Adjusting the existing boundaries and
b) Affecting the existing numbers of constituencies
The Task Force members are:
Mr. Gian Ghandi, Legal Council, Min of Finance
Mrs. Noreen Fairweather, Lands Information Officer, Min. of Natural Resources
Mrs. Myrtle Palacio, Chief Elections Officer, Elections and Boundaries Dept.
The following are findings and recommendations of the Task Force for this phase of the
Boundary Delimitation Project. The paper is divided into five sub-topics, namely, legal
framework, geographical analysis, statistical analysis, history of boundary delimitation in
Belize, a formula for population quota. Each sub-topic ends with the Task Force’s views
as the last paragraph. The paper ends with a summary of the recommendations.
I. LEGAL FRAMEWORK (Structure and Rules)
The Belize Constitution sets out both the authority and the criteria for boundary
redistricting, while the ROPA sets out the regulations for the adjustment of records and
Electoral Lists. Section 90 (1) and (3) empowers the Elections and Boundaries
Commission (EBC) to make proposals for the redistricting of electoral divisions to the
National Assembly, the body authorized to make the final decision.
Section 90 (1) (a) and (b), establishes the number of divisions and the criteria for
boundary delimitation.
• Each division to “have as nearly as may be, equal number of persons….”
• Total number of electoral divisions to be not less than 28
In making the above determination the EBC is guided by Section 90 (2), which stipulate
that consideration be given to:
1. Transport and other facilities of the division
2. Physical features of the division
Lastly, Section 91 stipulates that boundary changes “come into operation at the next
general election held after [the] re-division…”
The Task Force is of the view that the requirements in Section 90 (1) (a) of the Belize
Constitution can be satisfied if the disparities in the number of voters in the electoral
divisions are within a reasonable tolerance limit. This will be consistent with the
practice in other jurisdictions bearing in mind that in fixing the boundaries Section 90
(2) requires the EBC to have regard to transport and other facilities and the physical
1
features of the divisions. These differences in the physical and other characteristics of
the division would justify differences in the number of voters in the divisions, provided
that such differences are within reasonable limits.
II. GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS
There are twenty-nine electoral divisions in Belize at present. The first twenty-eight were
established prior to the 1984 elections and the twenty-ninth in 1993. Since then,
boundaries for several constituencies were adjusted from time to time (Appendix i).
Some schedules for these divisions do not precisely define the geographical boundaries of
each electoral division. For example, in the rural areas, most boundaries are described by
only including the names of communities. Subsequently, many of these communities
have grown and many new ones have developed. To address such situations, the
Elections and Boundaries Department created additional polling areas in order to ensure
that all electors are included on the Electoral Roster.
Almost all the current schedules, particularly in the rural areas, describe boundary limits
that consist of arbitrary (imaginary) lines, which oftentimes divide property boundaries
and communities. The following are some examples:
1. Toledo District—the boundaries shown (Appendix ii)
• Have been arbitrarily delineated and cut through property boundaries
• Did not take into account transportation routes making it difficult for
electors to reach their polling stations
• Disregarded administrative boundaries with electors living in the Stann
Creek District polling in Toledo District
Appendix iii shows where this situation was improved significantly, after the boundary
adjustments of 2002. The communities in the two divisions were confined district
administrative boundaries, and new and extended communities were identified.
2. Cayo South/Central—Buena Vista Village
According to the present boundary description, Buena Vista Village is located
partly in Polling Area 87 (Cayo South), and in Polling Area 78 (Cayo Central). In
an effort to resolve eligibility to vote in the Cayo South By-election (October
2003), a survey team from the Ministry of Natural Resources and the
Environment lent support to the Elections and Boundaries Department to verify
the boundary. It was discovered that 85% of the village is located in the Cayo
South Electoral Division, the remaining 15% in Cayo Central.
3. Corozal District
In the Joseito Layout at Corozal Bay and San Andres Village in Corozal North,
the polling area boundaries overlap on house lots, also in Alta Mira, Consejo and
Copper Bank.
Natural geographic features (physical) such as roads and rivers, as well as, surveyed
boundaries should be used, where possible, to establish boundaries. The use of natural
boundaries and maintaining contiguous polygons alleviates the aforesaid scenarios, as
2
well as, support the immediate detection of unassigned geography, that is, any area that
has not been described will easily be seen by simple inspection of the electoral maps.
This will help tremendously to eliminate the current situation where there is much
ambiguity with regards to elector location.
Notwithstanding the significant merits of utilizing natural geographic features, there are
some impediments. People settle where they do for a number of reasons including,
access to sources of income, connectivity and amenities, and oftentimes result in roads
and rivers, particularly in rural areas, that pass through communities. The community of
Duffy Bank where people reside on both banks of the Macal River is one such example.
Therefore, it is important to consider the facilities of communities and not alienate
portions as a result of using natural features.
The Task Force is of the view that geography and other physical features are critical,
and should be utilized where necessary, and to include complete communities within
polling areas where possible.
III. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
The population of the Electoral Roll of Belize as at September 2003 is 126,977 (Table 1).
Cayo South, with a population of 8,818, is the largest while the smallest, Pickstock, has
2,018. The variance between the two is a ratio of 4:4. However this is not a new
phenomenon for Belize. A new Electoral Roll produced for the 1998 General Election,
immediately after the Re-registration exercise, showed the same two divisions as the
largest and smallest respectively. The margin of difference between the two was a ratio
of 3.5:1. This is an indication that there is very little change in the distribution of electors
over the last five years.
An observation gleaned from Table 1 is that the rate of growth for each division ranges
from 41.2% for Cayo South to 13.0% for Collet. Other fast growing divisions next to
Cayo South are Lake Independence (35.0%), Cayo Central (32.0%) and Queen Square
(31.2%). Most of the increases occurred between August 2002 and February 2003, and
may have been influenced by the impending election. Stann Creek West (42.1%) and
Toledo East (-5.6%) show unusual growth due to the boundary changes in October 2002.
Table 1
3
Growth Of Electoral Roll
August 1998 – September 2003
No. of Electors
Electoral Division
Re-Registration 1998
September 2003
% of Growth
Freetown
Caribbean Shores
Pickstock*
Fort George
Albert
Queen's Squaare
Mesopotamia
Lake Independence
Collet
Port Loyola
Belize Rural North
Belize Rural Central
Belize Rural South
Corozal Bay
Corozal North
Corozal South East
Corozal South West
Orange Walk Central
Orange Walk North
Orange Walk East
Orange Walk South
Cayo North
Cayo Central
Cayo West
Cayo South*
Dangriga
Stann Creek West
Toledo East
Toledo West
1,988
3,058
1,489
1,693
1,738
1,904
1,707
4,024
2,479
4,349
2,526
3,524
2,653
4,031
3,052
3,704
3,171
2,654
3,949
4,162
3,936
5,045
4,107
3,286
5,186
3,346
3,304
4,533
3,575
2,524
4,016
2,018
2,068
2,288
2,719
2,144
6,193
2,849
5,783
3,343
4,625
3,713
5,307
4,009
4,763
3,903
3,402
5,029
5,485
5,303
6,841
6,040
4,682
8,818
4,257
5,704
4,291
4,915
21.0
23.9
26.2
18.1
24.0
31.2
20.4
35.0
13.0
24.8
24.4
23.8
28.5
24.0
23.9
22.2
18.8
22.0
21.5
24.1
25.8
26.3
32.0
29.8
41.2
21.4
42.1
-5.6
27.3
Total Registered Voters
Variance ratio (largest/smallest)*
94,173
3.5:1
126,977
4.4:1
Two other observations are as follows. Firstly, Belize’s population demonstrates high
mobility for demographic and geographic reasons. This is not echoed in the Electoral
Roll, as the tendency is to remain at the initial registration address and/or ancestral
address. Although the law provides for transfer of addresses, this is generally overlooked
and less than 0.5% transfer annually, with the exception of 2002, when there was an
influx of transfers of approximately 2.5%.
Secondly, Belize has a large percentage of uncommitted voters, persons who are not loyal
to any particular political party. The trend in voting behaviour in post-independent
Belize demonstrate frequent changes in government, and wide margin of seats in favour
of the winning party. A comparative description of election outcomes by electoral
4
division and political party for the last five elections, 1984 to 2003, demonstrates that
there are no marginal seats to greatly affect election outcome in favour of one party or the
other.
The Task Force is of the view that the potential to affect the outcome of elections other
than through the will of the people has not manifested itself in the political history of
Belize. At this juncture adjustment to the divisions may be kept to a minimum.
IV. HISTORY OF BOUNDARY DELIMITATION
Since the election 1954, Belize has increased electoral divisions three times. In 1961, the
divisions increased from nine to eighteen, Belize District being the recipient of six of the
nine new divisions (Appendix i). A second increase of ten new divisions came in 1984,
and Belize District increased by four, to twelve. The third and last increase was by one,
and occurred in 1993, leaving the Belize District with thirteen electoral divisions
altogether.
Boundary adjustments have also been conducted from time to time. In 1998, adjustments
were made to boundaries of Cayo South and Cayo Central. Similar adjustments were
made in other divisions in 1997 and 1998 (Table 2). In 2002, the boundaries of Stann
Creek West and Toledo East electoral divisions were adjusted to provide for:
• Maintenance of electoral boundaries to remain within administrative boundaries
• Natural boundaries, such as, major highways and rivers to correct anomalies in
Toledo East
Two issues stand out in the history of Boundary Redistricting in Belize
• Electoral Divisions remain within administrative boundaries
• Belize District has the larger share of constituencies
In relation to the latter issue, Belize City was the main hub of economic, political and
social activities. It still is, as presently Belize City provides for not only its 70,000
residents, including 45,000 voters, but also for all of Belize. Approximately 25 busloads
of commuters come to Belize City to work every day from the north and west of the
country, while numerous others commute on a weekly basis.
The Task Force is of the view that divisions remain within district administrative
boundaries, and that Belize District maintain the same number of divisions.
V. A FORMULA FOR POPULATION QUOTA
5
Many Commonwealth countries, such as Trinidad and Tobago, devise a formula to arrive
at a population quota for each electoral division. A tolerance level or limit is the one
criterion utilized in boundary redistricting. The following demonstrates the calculation to
arrive at a national average number of electors per division, which is the basis for the
varying tolerance levels shown in the three scenarios of Table 2.
# of electors as at April 2003
# of electoral divisions
National Average (126,539/29)
126,539
29
4,364
Table 2
National
Maximum and Minimum electors Permissible per Division
Item
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Tolerance Levels
10% (437)
15% (655)
20% (873)
Maximum Electors permissible
4,801
5,019
5,237
Minimum Electors permissible
3,927
3,709
3,491
Table 2 demonstrates tolerance levels in three situations. Scenario 1 has a tolerance limit
of 10%, whereby each division is not more than 110% and not less than 90%. At this
level, the maximum permissible number of electors in any division is 4,801 and the
minimum is 3,927. The second circumstance shows a tolerance limit of 15%, whereby
each division is not more than 115% and not less than 85%. At this level the maximum
number of electors permissible in any division is 5,019 and the minimum is 3,709.
Similarly, Scenario 3 presents a tolerance limit of 20%, with a maximum number of
electors permissible in any division as 5,237 and the minimum as 3,491.
In each of three situations, Belize City Divisions and the Cayo District Divisions prove to
be the most challenging. In Belize City, 7 divisions fall far below the minimum and 2
divisions above the maximum. In the Cayo District, 3 out of 4 divisions fall far above the
maximum, in such a manner that requires an increased number of divisions.
The Task Force is of the view that to maintain the practice and precedent set at 2002,
of keeping the divisions within the administrative districts, the best tolerance level is
scenario 2 at 15%. Also, to add two more divisions to the Cayo District as it is
overwhelmingly large. The following tables demonstrate minimum/maximum levels by
district at 15% tolerance limit.
Minimum/Maximum Levels By District
Maintaining the September 2003 statistics, the following tables demonstrate
minimum/maximum levels by district at 15% tolerance level.
6
1. Belize District:
Number of electors as at September 2003
Number of electoral divisions
Average number of electors per division
Item
44,233
13
3,403
Scenario
Tolerance Levels
15% (510)
Maximum Electors Permissible
3,913
Minimum Electors Permissible
2,893
2. Corozal District
Number of electors as at September 2003
Number of electoral divisions
Average number of electors per division
Item
17,982
4
4,496
Scenario
Tolerance Levels
15% (674)
Maximum Electors Permissible
5,170
Minimum Electors Permissible
3,822
3. Orange Walk District:
Number of electors as at September 2003
Number of electoral divisions
Average number of electors per division
Item
19,219
4
4,805
Scenario
Tolerance Levels
15% (720)
Maximum Electors Permissible
5,525
Minimum Electors Permissible
4,085
7
1. Stann Creek District:
Number of electors as at September 2003
Number of electoral divisions
Average number of electors per division
Item
9, 961
2
4,980
Scenario
Tolerance Levels
15% (747)
Maximum Electors Permissible
5,727
Minimum Electors Permissible
4,233
2. Toledo District:
Number of electors as at September 2003
Number of electoral divisions
Average number of electors per division
Item
9,206
2
4,603
Scenario
Tolerance Levels
15% (690)
Maximum Electors Permissible
5,293
Minimum Electors Permissible
3,913
3. Cayo District:
Number of electors as at September 2003
Number of electoral divisions
Average number of electors per division
Item
26,376
6
4,396
Scenario
Tolerance Levels
15% (654)
Maximum Electors Permissible
5,050
Minimum Electors Permissible
3,742
8
SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS
The following summarizes the views of the Task Force in respect of each sub-topic and is
recommended that the Elections and Boundaries Commission consider these as guiding
principles for boundary delimitation:
1. Set a tolerance limit of 15% for each constituency
2. Utilize geographic and physical features such as roads, rivers, crests of hills,
park and/or estate boundaries as the prevalent features to define the limits of
electoral boundaries and polling areas
3. Maintain electoral divisions within district administrative boundaries
4. Keep adjustments to a minimum—transfer adjoining polling area or part of
from the division with excess to the division with deficiency
5. Expand the Cayo District by 2 divisions to 6
6. All boundaries to be contiguous and where it is not possible to utilize natural
boundaries and physical features, geographic referencing should be used
7. The inclusion of complete communities within polling areas where possible
9
Appendix i
Constituency and Boundary Changes by Year of Change
Year of Change
1945
No. of Seats/
Division
6
New Constituencies
1954
9
Belize District:
Belize North, Belize South, Belize West, Belize Rural, Orange Walk, Corozal, Cayo,
Stann Creek, Toledo
1961
18
Belize District:
Freetown, Pickstock, Fort George, Albert, Collet, Mesopotamia,
Belize Rural North & South
Cayo District:
Cayo North & South
Corozal District:
North & South
Orange Walk District:
North & South
Toledo District:
North & South
Stann Creek District:
Town & Rural
1984
28
Belize District:
Caribbean Shores, Lake Independence, Queen Square, Port Loyola
Cayo District:
Cayo West, Cayo Central
Corozal District
Corozal Southwest/East, Bay
Stann Creek & Toledo Districts
Name change
Orange Walk District:
Orange Walk Central, Orange Walk East
1993
29
1997
29
a) Belize District:
Belize Rural Central
b) Boundary adjustments to:
Port Loyola, Collet (2 of 1993)
Boundary delimitation changes to:
Cayo Central and Cayo South (11 of 1997)
1998
29
Boundary adjustments to:
Caribbean Shores, Freetown, Fort George, Pickstock, Belize Rural South,
Belize Rural Central, Corozal North, Corozal Bay, Corozal South West, Orange Walk
North, Orange Walk East, Orange Walk Central (16 of 1998, 13 of 1998)
2002
29
Boundary adjustments to:
Stann Creek West and Toledo East—Independence, Placencia, Seine Bight Village and
surrounding Communities of the Stann Creek District moved from Toledo East to Stann
Creek West (11 of 2002)
Northern, Cayo, Toledo, Stann Creek, Belize (2)
Source: “Who & What in Belizean Elections—1954 to 1993”, Myrtle Palacio
“A Framework for Voter Education”, Myrtle Palacio
10
11