California’s Voter Turnout Rates in Primary Elections:
2004-2014
Fact Sheet
This fact sheet highlights CCEP’s research on California’s
primary election voter turnout rates. Statewide voter
turnout, both eligible and registered, has declined in
recent statewide primary election cycles. We continue to
see disparities in Latino and Asian-American turnout rates
compared to rates for the general electorate.
California Registered Voter Turnout
Figure 1
2004-2014 Primary Elections
60%
55.8%
50%
Facts
• Latinos and Asian Americans, as well as the total
electorate, experienced an overall decline in registered
voter turnout (percentage of registered voters who voted)
from 2010 to 2014.
40%
47.5%
44.8%
43.1%
32.8%
30%
32.9%
32.9%
25.4%
28.4%
28.1%
30.5%
25.0%
23.9%
23.3%
23.1%
20%
25.4%
15.9%
22.5%
18.6%
16.7%
13.3%
10%
• The highest primary registered turnout for the decade was
in the 2008 presidential primary.
• Over the past decade, primary election turnout rates have
been much lower than general election turnout rates.
• General presidential election registered turnout rates were: 72.4% (2004), 76.2% (2008), and 69.6% (2012). For general midterm elections, registered voter turnout rates were: 54.9% (2006), 58.0% (2010), and 41.8% (2014).
California Eligible Voter Turnout in Primaries
2010-2014
25%
Figure
2
24.2%
22.1%
20%
18.4%
15%
11.7% 11.3%
11.7%
11.8%
10.1%
10%
8.2%
5%
0%
2010
California
Civic
Engagement
Project
2012
Asian
2014
Latino
Total Turnout
Data source: Statewide Database
0%
2004 March
2006 June
California
Civic
Engagement
Project
2008 Feb*
2008 June
2010 June
Total Turnout
2012 June
Latino
2014 June
Asian
Data source: Statewide Database
*California held a special presidential primary in February 2008. It also held its standard primary in June of that same year for
all other statewide elected positions and ballot initiatives.
Facts
• Total eligible turnout in California (percentage of adult
citizens who voted) has declined over the past three
primary elections. The year 2014 saw a record-low
eligible turnout.
• Latino and general population eligible voter turnout
declined in primary elections between 2010 and 2014.
• Voter turnout among eligible Latino and Asian American
voters for the past three elections was considerably
lower than it was among the general population.
• Asian-American eligible voter turnout in primary
elections from 2010 to 2014 has not changed
significantly.
• In 2014, the total eligible voter population (adult
citizens) in California was 24 million with 6.6 million of
those Latino and 3 million Asian American.
California Civic Engagement Project
Facts
• The Latino share of California’s total vote in each statewide
primary election has increased less than one percentage
point over the decade from 2004-2014.
Percent of the Total California Vote
Figure 3
2004-2014 Primary Elections
25%
20%
• The Asian-American share of California’s total vote in each
statewide primary election has increased 2.2 percentage
points over the decade.
16.5%
15%
13.0%
11.5%
12.0%
11.8%
11.1%
12.3%
10%
5%
0%
5.30%
2004 March
5.70%
2006 June
California
Civic
Engagement
Project
6.17%
2008 Feb*
6.4%
2008 June
6.47%
6.20%
2010 June
Latino
2012 June
7.5%
2014 June
Asian
Data source: Statewide Database
*California held a special presidential primary in February 2008. It also held its standard primary in
June of that same year for all other statewide elected positions and ballot initiatives.
• The 2008 presidential primary saw the highest Latino share
of California’s total vote in the entire decade.
• The Latino and Asian-American share of California’s vote is
significantly smaller than each group’s share of the eligible
voter population. In 2014, Latinos and Asian Americans
were 27.5% and 12.3% of the eligible voter population,
respectively. What Does this Mean for Political Participation and Voter Turnout in California?
These data illustrate California’s consistently low statewide primary turnout rates and the significant group disparities in primary
turnout rates. Primary elections have historically yielded much lower turnout rates than general elections. The Latino and
Asian American share of the California vote in each election is not commensurate with each group’s share of the eligible voter
population. If disparities in voter turnout remain for Latinos and Asian Americans, these groups will continue to be dramatically
underrepresented in California’s primary voting electorate. Voter registration and engagement efforts targeting California’s Latinos
and Asian Americans could have a significant impact in terms of increasing these groups’ political representation in the state.
What Should One Expect in Future California Primary Elections?
California’s past primary voter turnout rates indicate the range of likely turnout in future primary elections. Over the past three
elections, registered voter turnout in primary elections was in the low 20-30 percentage-point range. Registered voter turnout
for Latinos was 12 to 15 percentage points lower than the general registered turnout. A registered voter turnout rate in future
primary elections that is higher than this range would be a strong level of participation. At the same time, registered voter turnout
higher than what was seen in the 2008 presidential primary would be exceptional as that election’s registered voter turnout rate
was the highest turnout rate for a California primary election since 1980.
Since February 2008, primary eligible turnout in the state has stayed below 25%. Latino and Asian-American primary eligible
turnout was considerably lower. High primary eligible turnout for these groups would still be much lower than the primary eligible
turnout for the general population. The 2016 election has so far generated a high level of voter interest, as evidenced by increased voter registration numbers. It
appears likely that California will see higher-than-normal turnout rates in both the upcoming primary and general elections.
About the California Civic Engagement Project (CCEP)
In 2011, The California Civic Engagement Project (CCEP) was established at the UC Davis Center for Regional
Change to inform the public dialogue on representative governance in California. The CCEP is engaging in
pioneering research to identify disparities in civic participation across place and population. It is well positioned
to inform and empower a wide range of policy and organizing efforts in California to reduce disparities in state
and regional patterns of well-being and opportunity. Key audiences include public officials, advocacy groups,
political researchers and communities themselves.
For more information about the California Civic Engagement Project,
contact the CCEP Director, Mindy Romero, Ph.D., at 530-665-3010 or [email protected].
Visit our website at: http://regionalchange.ucdavis.edu/ccep
California Civic Engagement Project
Updated 5/10/2016