AQUATIC CONSERVATION: MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS Aquatic Conserv: Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst. 20: 127–131 (2010) Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/aqc.1098 Editorial Requiem for a river: extinctions, climate change and the last of the Yangtze DAVID DUDGEON School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China Received 12 December 2009; Accepted 4 January 2010 INTRODUCTION Freshwater biodiversity is under global threat, with some of the largest and most charismatic species in the world’s great rivers facing possible extinction (Dudgeon et al., 2006; Stone, 2007). One such iconic species was the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji, Lipotes vexillifer, confirmed as the first human-caused cetacean extinction in 2007 (Turvey et al., 2007). As the sole representative of the monotypic Lipotidae, it represents the loss of an entire evolutionary lineage. Unfortunately, the baiji was one of a host of Yangtze species that are now gravely threatened. This reflects the dramatic degradation and modification of the river ecosystem that has occurred since the 1950s (reviewed by Dudgeon, 1992, 1995, 2005a), ratcheting up the effects of centuries of extensive human impact. What is the prognosis for Yangtze biodiversity? YANGTZE RIVER HEALTH The Yangtze River (or Chang Jiang) is, by length and discharge, the largest river in China, and the third longest in the world. The catchment of 1.8 million km2 sustains over 400 million people, and much of the landscape is human dominated. The Yangtze originates at 5400 m elevation in the glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau, flowing south through Sichuan Province into Yunnan Province then north and east into Sichuan again. There it is joined by the Min Jiang (Figure 1) at which point the river has descended to an elevation of approximately 300 m. This upper mainstream section of the Yangtze is referred to as the Jinsha Jiang. From its intersection with the Min Jiang, the Yangtze is navigable for well over 2000 km down to the sea, although the channel is bisected by the giant Three Gorges Dam (TGD) – the largest hydropower facility in the world – and the Gezhouba Dam further downstream. Chongqing (190 m elevation), a vast conurbation of around 32 million people, is situated at the top of the Three Gorges, while the TGD approximately 320 km further downstream, marks the beginning of the Yangtze floodplain. The floodplain is characterized by numerous lakes including Poyang Lake (China’s largest lake) and Dongting Lake, and is flat enough to allow passage of ocean-going vessels. Together with other commercial boat traffic (numbering 4210,000 large vessels), they serve the major cities of the floodplain, such as Wuhan (49 million people), Nanjing (almost 8 million) and Shanghai (420 million) situated at the river mouth, as well as Yichang (4 million) adjacent to the TGD and, especially, burgeoning Chongqing further upstream. These cities contribute over 25 billion tons of wastewater — around half China’s total — to the Yangtze each year, much of it untreated (Wu et al., 1999; SEPA, 2004; Dudgeon, 2005a). Point-source pollution by sewage and industrial wastes is compounded by diffuse pollution including nitrogen (196 kg ha 1: 3.6 times the world average rates), phosphorus, and pesticides from agricultural land, as well as contaminants from vessels (Li and Zhang, 1999; Xue et al., 2008). The national network for monitoring water quality in Chinese rivers established by the State Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA, raised to ministry status in 2008 and referred to herein as MEP) produces annual reports that incorporate data from many sites along the Yangtze. Water is graded according to six levels or classes: i.e. I to V and ‘Worse than Grade V’ (see MEP, 2008). Pollution in the Yangtze has increased in recent years, with higher burdens in the lower course and in smaller tributaries (reviewed by Xue et al., 2008). Only 31% of water samples from the Yangtze and its tributaries (mainly in the upper Jinsha Jiang) are of first or second class quality and much of the river is third class or poorer. Even in the Three Gorges Reservoir, only 80% of samples meet the class III standard (i.e. o10,000 faecal coliforms L 1; o1.0 mg L 1 *Correspondence to: David Dudgeon, Division of Ecology and Biodiversity, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China. E-mail: [email protected] Copyright r 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 128 D. DUDGEON Figure 1. The Yangtze River showing the positions of the Three Gorges Dam and Gezhouba Dam, People’s Republic of China, as well as details of the upper Yangtze Basin and Jinsha River and the position of Chongqing city. The original boundaries of the Upper Yangtze River Rare and Endemic Fishes Reserve are indicated by stippling. The approximate locations of 13 dams that are planned or under construction are shown also: 1 5 Xiaonanhai; 2 5 Xiangjiaba; 3 5 Xiluodo; 4 5 Baihetan; 5 5 Wudongde; 6 5 Guanyinyan; 7 5 Ludila; 8 5 Longkaikou; 9 5 Jin’anqiao; 10 5 Ahia; 11 5 Liyuan; 12 5 Liangjiaren; 13 5 Hutiaoxia. The positions of two additional dams that have been proposed at Luzhou (upstream arrow) and Jiangjin (downstream arrow) within the reserve are shown also, as well as the only confirmed spawning site for Chinese paddlefish (asterisk). ammonia), but this is not surprising given its location downstream of Chongqing. Levels of persistent organic pollutants are rising, posing threats to the drinking water of major cities along the river (Xue et al., 2008), with media reports characterizing the lower Yangtze as ‘cancerous’. In addition to pollution, the Yangtze biota must contend with overexploitation and flow regulation (Dudgeon, 1995, 2000). The Yangtze formerly contributed around 70% of China’s freshwater catch (0.5 million t y 1) but yields fell to half this value between 1954 and 1970, and have declined further to 100 000 t y 1 (Fu et al., 2003; Chen et al., 2004). Anadromous Reeve’s shad (Tenualosa reevesii), which once supported a lucrative fishery, is now virtually extinct due to the combined effects of overfishing, pollution and dams obstructing migrations (Wang, 2003; Chen et al., 2004). Much of the present Yangtze fishery yield depends upon the well-established practice of stocking the river and its floodplain lakes with cultured fry of major carp (Fu et al., 2003). This measure has implications for the genetic variability of indigenous carp, but may reduce fishing pressure on rare species. LIKELY EXTINCTIONS OF YANGTZE MEGAFISHES The Yangtze hosts 261 fish species, 177 of them endemic (Fu et al., 2003: estimates of richness vary slightly among authorities). No comprehensive conservation assessment of Yangtze fishes has been attempted, but 25 species are listed in the National Red Data Book for threatened Chinese fish (Yue and Chen, 1998) and receive nominal legislative protection. They include China’s largest freshwater fishes: the Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis), Yangtze sturgeon (Acipenser dabryanus) and Chinese paddlefish (Psephurus gladius). Copyright r 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Although all three are Grade-1 Nationally Protected Species, which cannot be fished, their populations have experienced marked declines (Wei et al., 1997, 2004). The Yangtze sturgeon and Chinese paddlefish are Yangtze endemics categorized by the IUCN as critically endangered; the Chinese sturgeon is endangered, but the status of all three species needs updating (IUCN, 2009). The Gezhouba Dam, constructed on the Yangtze mainstream in 1981, blocked breeding migrations, fragmented populations and degraded spawning sites of sturgeons and paddlefish (Dudgeon, 1995, 2000; Wei et al., 1997; Chen et al., 2004). The TDG, an even more effective barrier to migration, ensured that paddlefish reproduction was limited to the upper section of the river. This species is on the verge of extinction. Zhang et al. (2009) failed to detect any paddlefish during a 3year hydroacoustic and fisheries study of the upper Yangtze, even in reaches adjacent to its only known spawning site in the lower Jinsha. Only three adult paddlefish have been captured during the last decade (most recently in 2003); juveniles have not been recorded since 1992 (Zhang et al., 2009). Like the paddlefish, Yangtze sturgeon are now restricted to the upper Yangtze, whereas the Chinese sturgeon is confined to the lower course. Since 1983, over 100,000 larvae of Chinese sturgeon obtained by artificial propagation have been released into the Yangtze each year (Wei et al., 1997, 2004). Stocking of inbred fish may be responsible for a genetic bottleneck in the remnant wild population (Zhang et al., 2003), but could result from population decreases associated with dam building that destroyed spawning areas. Artificial propagation of Yangtze sturgeon has been achieved recently, with release of juveniles advocated (Gao et al., 2009), but may be inadvisable given the low genetic variability of wild populations caused by substantial declines in abundance between 1958 and 1999 (Wan et al., 2003). Yangtze sturgeon are ‘seldom captured’ Aquatic Conserv: Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst. 20: 127–131 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/aqc EXTINCTIONS, CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE LAST OF THE YANGTZE (Gao et al., 2009), and the only individuals collected by Zhang et al. (2009) during their 3-year paddlefish survey were several small ‘hybrid sturgeon’. Establishment of captive breeding populations of sturgeons and paddlefish as an ‘insurance policy’ of ex situ conservation has been advocated repeatedly (Yue and Chen, 1998; Wei et al., 2004; Zhang et al., 2009), and was also proposed for the baiji (for details, see Dudgeon, 2005b). Given the failure to implement those ex situ conservation measures, one might conclude that the paddlefish and Yangtze sturgeon will follow the baiji into extinction. DECLINES IN CHARISMATIC YANGTZE ANIMALS The status of Yangtze megafishes is mirrored by other species: the Chinese alligator (Alligator sinensis) is critically endangered in the wild (IUCN, 2009), and while many individuals are held in captivity, there is limited scope for reintroduction to the lower Yangtze for this ‘animal without a habitat’ (Thorbjarnarson and Wang, 1999). The Yangtze giant soft-shell turtle (Rafetus swinhoei), which may be the largest freshwater turtle species on Earth, is apparently extinct in the wild and classified as critically endangered (IUCN, 2009). A single female and at least one male survive in captivity in China, but breeding has yet to be achieved. The Chinese giant salamander (Andrias davidianus) — the world’s largest amphibian, and one of only three surviving Cryptobranchidae — is likewise critically endangered owing to the combined effects of dams, pollution and overexploitation (Wang et al., 2004). The black finless porpoise, Neophocaena phocaenoides asiaeorientalis is the only freshwater population of porpoises in the world. This subspecies is endemic to the Yangtze where it is confined to the floodplain. Steep declines in abundance and distribution are attributable to the same factors that eliminated the baiji — entanglement with fishing gear, pollutants, collision with vessels, sand mining and dams limiting access to floodplain lakes — fuelling fears that these porpoises may soon be extinct (Zhao et al., 2008). Lower Yangtze wetlands, especially Poyang and Dongting Lakes, have been degraded by pollution, sedimentation, land reclamation, and changes in flood regime, making them less suitable as wintering habitat for rare or threatened water birds, such as white-fronted and swan geese (Anser albiforns and A. cygnoides), white and black storks (Ciconia boyciana and C. nigra), Japanese crane (Grus japonicus) and the Siberian white crane (G. leucogeranus) (Dudgeon, 1999). Floodplain mammals that have declined along the Yangtze due to habitat loss and hunting include the Chinese water deer (Hydropotes inermis) and Père David’s deer (Elaphurus davidianus). The latter is extinct in the wild, but has been reintroduced under captive management in Yangtze Tianezhou Reserve (IUCN, 2009). 129 building a new dam on the Jinsha River in 2005 (Figure 1). Now completed (but not yet operating), the Xiluodu Dam (12.6 million kW; 278 m tall) ranks second in size to the TGD. It will be part of a 12-dam cascade along the Jinsha River but, because construction is not proceeding in a coordinated fashion (Liu, 2009), the ultimate number of dams could exceed this number. The combined height of the completed dam cascade may exceed 2000 m with devastating consequences for the Jinsha (Chen and Yin, 2008; see also Yao et al., 2006). The tailwaters of each dam will extend backward to the dam wall of its upstream counterpart, so that the river will descend in a series of stepped impoundments with few or no free-flowing sections. Work on Xiluodu began in 2004 before MEP had approved environmental impact assessments on the proposed project, and work ceased temporarily in 2005 prior to MEP sanction of hastily-compiled reports and studies of potential impacts on fish. MEP also fined CTGPC for breaches of regulations. Temporary suspensions on construction of other dams in the cascade have done little to slow or limit dam development. A clear indication that impacts on river ecology are not a primary concern of ministerial or provincial officials is the construction of Xiangjiaba Dam (6 million kW; 161 m tall) within the boundaries of the 500 km long Upper Yangtze River Rare and Endemic Fishes Reserve. That reserve was designated by the State Council of China in 1987 to protect paddlefish and Yangtze sturgeon as well as habitat for the Chinese giant salamander and 69 endemic or ‘rare and precious’ fish species including Asia’s only catostomatid (Myxocyrinus asiaticus). To circumvent concerns about conservation, the CTGPC successfully petitioned the State Council in 2005 to amend the reserve boundaries to exclude the part of the river where Xiangjiaba is situated. Xiluodu is immediately upstream of the original boundary. The CTGPC has also announced plans to build the 195-m tall Xiananhai Dam within the reserve, close to its downstream border 30 km from Chongqing (Figure 1). The details and schedule of the project, which were subject to a 2008 environmental assessment commissioned by the Chongqing municipal government, have yet to be released. A petition to the State Council to further amend the reserve boundaries has yet to be heard (Liu, 2009). Irrespective of whether any adjustment is made, the tailwaters of Xiananhai Dam will extend upstream transforming much of the reserve into an impoundment. The reserve could be compromised further by additional proposals for a pair of dams at Luzhou and Jiangjin (Figure 1; Chen and Yin, 2008). Whether or not these two dams are built, the prospect for fish in the Upper Yangtze is grim. In-stream habitat will be profoundly altered, populations of rare fish will be fragmented, and breeding migrations or transport of floating eggs and larvae will be impaired. While the need for additional fish reserves has been highlighted (Fu et al., 2003), and sites identified (Park et al., 2003), the chances of official designation seem limited. Moreover, the integrity of potential sites has been or will be damaged by the dam cascade. UPPER YANGTZE DAM CASCADE While the upper Yangtze does not experience the high levels of pollution and intensity of human impact that pervade the lower course, a serious threat looms. The China Three Gorges Project Corporation (CTGPC), a state-authorized investment institution responsible for the construction of the TGD, began Copyright r 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CLIMATE CHANGE Much of the rationale for the upper Yangtze dam cascade is hydropower generation. Dams on the Yangtze could help reduce carbon emissions which would otherwise result from Aquatic Conserv: Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst. 20: 127–131 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/aqc 130 D. DUDGEON burning China’s huge reserves of sulphur-rich coal. However, the ecological costs will be high with an associated and growing extinction debt. Furthermore, irreversible climate change may already be affecting the Yangtze basin. Chinese and Indian glaciologists have warned of rapid retreats of Himalayan glaciers in Tibet and Kashmir (Khadka, 2009). Although the widely quoted figure that melt rates are so fast that there is ‘high likelihood’ these glaciers will disappear by 2035 (Cruz et al., 2007) has been discredited (Khadka, 2009; Black, 2010) glacier melt combined with thawing permafrost could result in a 29% increase in runoff in the Yangtze headwaters (Anon, 2009). While melt water is less important than rainfall as a supply for the Yangtze, these forecasts suggest an immediate future of increasing flows, followed by a longer-term decline and periodic water scarcity (Cruz et al., 2007). Increasing deviations from the natural flow regime caused by dams, glacier melt, and increased seasonality of monsoonal rains will combine to alter profoundly the flow cycles to which the Yangtze biota are adapted and upon which they depend, thereby adding to the thermal stresses imposed by gradual warming. They will also result in further dams for water storage and flood control intended to enhance human water security. Other consequences of climate change are addressed in a soon-to-be released report by World Wide Fund for Nature that reports an annual mean temperature rise of 0.711C between 2001 and 2005 in the Yangtze Basin (for a summary, see Anon, 2009). Predictions include increased frequency of extreme events such as floods and droughts, with lower dryseason water levels and increasing temperatures reducing the extent of floodplain wetlands and habitat for water birds. Changes in temperature already appear to be affecting fish migrations within the Yangtze and bird migration pathways (Anon, 2009). SUMMARY AND PROSPECTS: THE LAST OF THE YANGTZE? The synopsis of threats to Yangtze biodiversity presented here is far from comprehensive: for instance, it fails to include the impacts arising from an ambitious scheme, conceived by Mao Zedong in 1952, to transfer water from the Yangtze to the Yellow River and arid lands of northern China (Dudgeon, 1995). An eastern route along the coast through the ancient, but now refurbished, Grand Canal will transfer water from the lower Yangtze; work on this route is virtually complete. A middle route transferring water from a major Yangtze tributary (the Han Jiang) has been under construction since 2003, whereas a western route, intended to divert water from the headwaters, has stalled due to engineering difficulties. The project will bring manifest benefits to the north, but will not be without impacts on the Yangtze. Reduced discharge, increased pollution burdens and saline intrusion in the estuary are among the likely outcomes (Dudgeon, 1995, 1999). Degradation of the Yangtze by pollution, overfishing, flow regulation, dense boat traffic, sand mining, and sedimentation, in combination with construction of a dam cascade upstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir, is driving extinctions of large charismatic animals. Smaller less conspicuous species are certain to be declining also. Climate change, and human adaptation to it, will worsen an already grave situation, in part Copyright r 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. because China’s strategy for limiting emissions of greenhouse gases (currently 450% of the global total) depends on reductions in the carbon intensity of its development: i.e. less fossil fuel burned per unit of GDP. This will increase demands for hydropower in the foreseeable future especially given the likely continued growth of the Chinese economy. Much of the Yangtze will soon be a mere semblance of its natural state, offering few prospects for persistence of what remains of the river’s unique biodiversity. Polemicist and cultural historian Raymond Williams (1921–1988) wrote ‘To be truly radical is to make hope possible, rather than despair convincing’, a passage that should resonate with conservation biologists. Large-scale conservation planning and action at the scale needed to effect improvements for Yangtze biodiversity are precisely those that will run contrary to the hydropower and engineering projects needed to sustain economic development and enhance human water security in China. For that reason alone, it is difficult to be optimistic about the Yangtze. The extinction of the baiji is but one example of the failure of biodiversity concerns to gain traction in wider discussions about development or national plans in China. 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Aquatic Conserv: Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst. 20: 127–131 (2010) DOI: 10.1002/aqc
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