W H AT ’ S T H E AT M O S P H E R E L I K E T O D AY ? Atmosphere Monitoring CAMS, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Vincent-Henri Peuch (ECMWF) Copernicus EU Copernicus EU Copernicus EU www.copernicus.eu F R O M S C I E N C E TO Atmosphere Monitoring AC T I O N A B L E I N F O R M AT I O N After a decade (or more), air quality forecasts and related products have found their way to decision makers and the public. Credits: CAMS (INERIS, Met Norway) C O P E R N I C U S : Atmosphere Monitoring A F L A G S H I P E U R O P E A N P R O G R A M M E With its principles defined shortly after the Kyoto protocol was adopted, Copernicus contributes to the international commitment to monitor effectiveness of policies and treaties regarding the Earth’s environment and climate Copernicus is harnessing world leading science and technology to equip society to understand and adapt to our changing environment. Data is full, free and open to all. Funding: €4.3 billions for 2014-2020 Sentinels THE COPERNICUS VALIE-ADDING CHAIN Atmosphere Monitoring Services led by ECMWF * Mostly based on the principle of subsidiarity from EU Member states * Over 1300 users of daily NRT / operational CAMS users and there was over 40000 monthly visitors of the website in Feb. 2017. CCAMS A M SSERVICE S E RCHAIN VICE Atmosphere Monitoring CHAIN In-situ observations Space Agencies National scale 15 C A M S Atmosphere Monitoring G L O B A L S Y S T E M : N W P A N D C O M P O S I T I O N Space Agencies C-IFS Fire emissions Anthropogenic emissions The model itself: • ECMWF 4D-var and meteorology (T511) • Integrated chemistry and aerosol representation • Integrated natural biosphere model DATA ASSIMILATION Atmosphere Monitoring IS ESSENTIAL No “silver bullet”… you need to combine information ENVISAT/SCIAMACHY GOSAT/TANSO METOP-A/IASI CH4 OVER Atmosphere Monitoring 70 DATA STREAMS USED DAILY Timeliness Atmosphere Monitoring OF OBSERVATIONS Real Real-Time Near-Real-Time A posteriori Final < 2-3 hours < 2-3 days < 1 month < 1 year Applications Automated Filtering, flagging Assimilation/ Forecast (Verification) Semi-automated Verification (Assimilation for Delayed-Mode applications) Manual, Expertise Semi-validated Validation Interim re-analyses R&D Expertise+ Validated Re-analyses Assessments Validation R&D QC/QA USE MAIN GLOBAL DAILY PRODUCTS Atmosphere Monitoring AOD CO CO2 NO2 • 40 km horizontal resolution at 60 model levels; two 5-day forecasts per day (chemistry and aerosols) • 16 (-> 9) km horizontal resolution at 137 model levels; one 5-day forecast per day (CO2, CH4, linear CO) OPERATIONAL Atmosphere Monitoring OBS MONITORING MONITORING AND VALIDATION Observation-minus-model statistics are automatically generated for instruments that are being assimilated or monitored. INDONESIAN Atmosphere Monitoring FIRES, AUGUST-OCTOBER 2015 High resolution (~9 km) total column CO forecast [1018 molec/cm2] • Total column CO as tracer of smoke emitted from forest and peatland fires in Sumatera and Kalimantan • High resolution forecast at native resolution of ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS, approx. 9 km). • Typical high values for smoke (e.g. tropical Africa, Amazon) are 10 x 1018 molec/cm2. • The fields cover the entire globe, but only the area of interest is plotted here. • CAMS analyses of aerosol optical depth (AOD) compared against AERONET observations at Singapore. • Organic Matter aerosol (i.e. smoke) largest contributor throughout August to November. • Generally good agreement (correlation coefficient ~0.8) between analysis and observations. M. Parrington,16 S. Massart (ECMWF) GLOBAL Atmosphere Monitoring AIR PM10 FORECASTS NO2 Guangzhou Shanghai Beijing PM2.5 QUALITY FP7 PANDA and MarcoPolo, http://www.marcopolo-panda.eu/forecast/ ozone CARBON WEATHER Atmosphere Monitoring A. Agusti-Panareda, S. Massart (ECMWF) http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu @CopernicusECMWF Newsletter W H AT ’ S T H E AT M O S P H E R E L I K E T O D AY ? Atmosphere Monitoring Follow us! Copernicus EU Copernicus EU Copernicus EU www.copernicus.eu
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