www.REbuyers.org #GoCleanRE 0 Perspec7ves on the Market REBA Summit, 2016 May 19, 2016, Microso8 HQ Redmond WA www.REbuyers.org #GoCleanRE 1 Agenda Drivers for ambi7on State of the market Obstacles to growth UHliHes and customer engagement Policy space www.REbuyers.org #GoCleanRE 2 Corporate Ambi7on 60% of the US Fortune 100 and 43% of the US Fortune 500 have a GHG, RE or EE target 70%
60%
60%
56%
50%
43%
40%
30%
30%
20%
10%
0%
F100
F250
F500
F250-500
www.REbuyers.org 3 Corporate Ambi7on •  Percentage of US Fortune 500 with Targets by Sector Power Forward 2.0 4 5 Accelera7ng Corporate Ambi7on As of May 2016 … 12 US Fortune 500s set
100% RE targets (Out of 58) … 20 ICT companies have 100% goals
… 12 US Fortune 500s commiSed to set Science‐based targets (= 8% of all 157 SBT‐companies) www.REbuyers.org 6 Buyers’ Principles… … are gaining momentum. Welcome to 7 new signatories! We
www.REbuyers.org 7 Buyers’ Principles… 8 Agenda Drivers for ambiHon State of the market Obstacles to growth UHliHes and customer engagement Policy space www.REbuyers.org #GoCleanRE 9 Corporate Renewable Deals –
2012 – 2016 3.4
Capacity (GW)
Salesforce
3.21
3.2
3
Philips
Corning
General
Motors
Google
2.8
Google
2.6
Google
Switch
2.4
2.2
2
Cisco
1.8
Walmart
1.6
Kaiser Permanente
1.4
1.18
1.2
Yahoo
1
0.8
BD
0.6
0.4
0.2
Google
0.05
Apple
Apple
0.56
Facebook
Microsoft
Mars
Dow Chemical
Google
Kaiser Permanente
IKEA
Apple
2014
2015
Google
0
2012
IKEA
Walmart
Microsoft
2013
Amazon
Owens Corning
Owens Corning
Equinix
Equinix
Procter & Gamble
Equinix
HPE
Switch
Amazon
Facebook
Amazon
Amazon
Bloomberg
Apple
Google
General
Motors
Procter &
Gamble
Google
Iron Mountain
0.43
Google
3M
Steelcase
Lockheed
Martin
Salesforce
2016
Publicly announced contracted capacity of corporate Power Purchase Agreements, Green Power Purchases, Green Tariffs, and Outright Project Ownership
in the United States and Mexico, 2012 – 2016. Excludes on-site generation such as rooftop solar PV. Last updated: May 10, 2016.
Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.businessrenewables.org/ or contact [email protected]
#GoCleanRE 10 Wind is the Primary Fuel Source Solar gained substanHal market share in 2015 Contracted Capacity (MW) by Technology 2008 ‐ 2014 Wind Solar 2,238 40 2015 ‐ 2016 YTD Wind Solar 2,778 815 Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org
For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.rmi.org/business_renewables_center or contact [email protected] #GoCleanRE 11 Corporate Market Share is Growing Corporates signed ~19% of wind PPAs in 2014, and ~56% in 2015 Contracted Wind Capacity (MW) by Type 2014 Non‐Corporate PPAs Corporate PPAs 2015 2,236 514 1,989 2,382 Source: AWEA, RMI Analysis Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org
For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.rmi.org/business_renewables_center or contact [email protected] #GoCleanRE 12 28 Corporates Have Signed Deals Capacity (MW) 1,839 3M F 500 120 F 500 538 HPE F 500 112 Walmart F 500 377 Philips 65 Equinix 330 General Motors F 500 64 Microso8 F 500 285 Salesforce F 500 64 IKEA 263 SC Johnson 53 Owens Corning F 500 250 Corning F 500 50 Facebook F 500 238 BD F 500 30 Apple F 500 220 Lockheed MarHn F 500 30 Dow Chemical F 500 200 Iron Mountain 27 Mars 200 Steelcase 25 Switch 179 Yahoo 23 Kaiser Permanente 153 Cisco F 500 20 Procter & Gamble F 500 138 Bloomberg 20 Google F 500 Amazon Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.businessrenewables.org/ or contact [email protected]
Capacity (MW) Buyer Buyer #GoCleanRE 13 28 Developers Have Signed Deals Sorted by Capacity (MW) Developer Capacity # of # of Developer (MW) Deals Corporates Capacity # of # of (MW) Deals Corporates NextEra Energy Resources 691 8 5 Pa\ern Energy Group 150 1 1 EDF Renewable Energy 587 6 6 Enel Green Power 134 2 2 Invenergy 570 4 4 Pioneer Green Energy 116 1 1 MidAmerican Energy 545 2 2 SunPower 105 3 2 Apex Clean Energy 336 4 3 Alterra Power 100 1 1 RES Americas 310 2 2 Tradewind Energy 100 1 1 First Solar 295 3 2 Community Energy 80 1 1 Chermac Energy 239 1 1 Cypress Creek Renewables 61 1 1 Duke Energy Renewables 233 3 3 Spartan Renewable Energy 53 1 1 SunEdison 217 2 2 ConstellaHon 42 1 1 EDP Renewables 215 4 4 Akuo Energy 40 1 1 Iberdrola Renewables 208 1 1 Enbridge 40 1 1 BNB Renewable Energy 200 1 1 New Jersey Resources 27 1 1 Bordas Wind Energy 200 1 1 NRG 20 1 1 Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.businessrenewables.org/ or contact [email protected]
#GoCleanRE 14 Agenda Drivers for ambiHon State of the market Obstacles to growth UHliHes and customer engagement Policy space www.REbuyers.org #GoCleanRE 15 PTC/ITC – Not an Obstacle Was previously the largest barrier for near‐term growth PTC/ITC Extension Details 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022+ Solar ITC 30% 30% 30% 30% 26% 22% 10% Wind ITC* 30% 24% 18% 12% 0% 0% 0% Wind PTC* (per MWh) $23 $18 $14 $9 $0 $0 $0 *Wind projects can choose between the ITC and PTC Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org
For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.rmi.org/business_renewables_center or contact [email protected] #GoCleanRE 16 2016 Has Been Behind 2015 So Far MW 2013 2014 Q1 0 0 Q2 0 2015 642 705 Q3 279 Q4 278 2016 291 188 250 226 200 625 1692 Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org
For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.rmi.org/business_renewables_center or contact [email protected] #GoCleanRE 17 Register! If you haven’t done it earlier, please register by sending a SMS to 22333 with the text rebavote www.REbuyers.org #GoCleanRE 18 How Many GW Will be Signed in 2016? Send a SMS to 22333 with the text: 2 3 4 5 6 more www.REbuyers.org #GoCleanRE 19 #GoCleanRE 20 Obstacle #1 – Low Gas Prices This is now the largest market barrier Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices – Historical and Futures Price ($/mmBtu) 15 10 5 0 Jan '00 Jan '05 Jan '10 Avg Henry Hub Spot Jan '15 Jan '20 Jan '25 Henry Hub Futures Source: EIA, SNL Financial Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org
For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.rmi.org/business_renewables_center or contact [email protected] #GoCleanRE 21 Obstacle #2 – Corporate Engagement Only 18 of 223 companies with sustainability goals signed deals Fortune 500 Companies with Sustainability Targets Fortune 100 12 54 66 1 Fortune 101‐250 Fortune 251‐500 80 5 Signed Deals 71 81 223 (45%) of Fortune 500 with sustainability goals 76 Haven't Signed Deals Source: Power Forward 2.0 – WWF, Ceres, Calvert, DGA; RMI Analysis Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org
For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.rmi.org/business_renewables_center or contact [email protected] #GoCleanRE 22 Obstacle #3 – Regulated Markets 2014 US GDP vs. 2014 Electricity ProducHon vs. 2015‐2016 Deals GDP 100% = $17.2 Trillion VerHcally Integrated UHlity Open Wholesale Market Electricity Produc7on 100% = 4,093 TWh 2015‐2016 Deals Signed 100% = 3.6 GW 41% 32% 68% 9% 59% Out of the 0.3 GW signed in regulated states, 87% were for new loads 91% Source: EIA 2014, Bureau of Economic Analysis 2014, RMI Analysis Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.businessrenewables.org/ or contact [email protected] #GoCleanRE 23 What Does This Mean for Sellers? 1
Corporate buyers can no longer be ignored 2
Corporate buyers do not behave like uHliHes 3
New approaches are needed to address corporate demand Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.businessrenewables.org/ or contact [email protected]
#GoCleanRE 24 ConnecHng Buyers and Sellers BRC •  117 members Market Place •  11.1 GW •  Demand posHng •  CO2 calculaHon *The data shown above are illustraHve and do not represent real projects. Copyright 2016 by Rocky Mountain InsHtute www.REbuyers.org For more informaHon, please visit h\p://www.businessrenewables.org/ or contact [email protected]
#GoCleanRE 25 Agenda Drivers for ambiHon State of the market Obstacles to growth U7li7es and customer engagement Policy space www.REbuyers.org #GoCleanRE 26 Corporate Large‐Scale Deals by Type GW 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2013 PPA 2014 UHlity RE Purchase Source: Business Renewables Center
2015 UHlity Green Tariff 2016 Ownership 27 We Focus on States with Regulated Markets
28 Nevada
North Carolina
29 Utah
Virginia
30 Washington
Minnesota
Colorado
31 Nebraska Iowa
Arizona
Oklahoma
Georgia
32 Collabora7on with U7li7es WRI and WWF with buyers principles signatories are engaging with u7li7es or regulators in one way or another in all of these markets. 33 An unusual partnership to improve RE opportuni7es Building   Trust & understanding   Joint learning   RE product innovaHon   Outreach to regulators 34 U7lity‐Corporate Buyer Collabora7ve Forum Strategic insights   1st generaHon of uHlity‐offered RE products   Customers perspecHves on design features for 2nd generaHon uHlity‐offered RE products   Areas of collaboraHon www.REbuyers.org 35 U7lity‐Corporate Buyer Collabora7ve Forum Get involved! Get the report: www.buyersprinciples.org/resource/ uHlity‐buyer‐dialogue‐insights www.REbuyers.org 36 Agenda Drivers for ambiHon State of the market Obstacles to growth UHliHes and customer engagement Policy space www.REbuyers.org #GoCleanRE 37 Legisla7ve and Regulatory Policies on the Minds of Corporate Buyers  Power Purchase Agreements   Off site   On site (including 3rd party financing)   Green Tariffs   Community Solar   Net Energy Metering   Renewable Porxolio Standards   Clean Power Plan ….And the appetite of business for engaging in
policy is growing
38 Preliminary Buyer Survey Results Buyers priori7ze policies with direct procurement impact 30%
25%
27%
20%
15%
18%
17%
15%
13%
10%
10%
5%
0%
Onsite/3rd2 Offsite/PPAs
Net/
Party/
Metering
Financing/
(PPA/or/
leasing)
Community/ Utility/ Green/ Renewable/
Solar/or/
Tariffs
Portfolio/
Shared/
Standards
Renewables
39 Large customer engagement is growing Source: David Gardiner and Associates 40 Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs)  At least 25 states authorize or allow third party PPAs for solar PV  4 states currently disallow 3rd party PPAs or otherwise restrict them through legal barriers (NC, KY, OK, FL)  Company needs: simplify and standardize policies, permiyng, incenHves and other processes for direct procurement throughout the country  Upcoming opportuniHes to expand third party access to renewable energy in NC, SC, FL, VA. 41 Agenda Drivers for ambition
State of the market
Obstacles to growth
Utilities and customer engagement
Policy space
www.REbuyers.org 42 Procurement Trends by Sector Annual Industry Survey  WWF/WRI & the Corporate Eco Forum conducHng 2nd annual industry survey  Purpose: Insight on RE procurement pracHces by sectors. Would you be willing to contribute to annual industry survey on corporate RE procurement prac7ces? If YES => text/SMS to 22333 + your name www.REbuyers.org 43 44