Country Profile
South Sudan
July 2011
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The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment
Country Profiles Series Editor
J. J. Messner
Country Profile Written by
J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Joelle Burbank and Kendall Lawrence
The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CCPPR11SS (Version 07Z)
Circulation: PUBLIC
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Profile
South Sudan
Introduction
Pressures
Capacity
Combined
Failed States
Index Score
Failed States Index
Rank
Average
Indicator Score
Year-on-Year
Core 5 + 2
Average Score
Core 5 + 2
Rank
Capacity Minus
Pressures
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
This profile of South Sudan provides an overview of a new country that has previously never been assessed on its own. Thus,
many of the assessment figures used are those of all of Sudan, based on 2011 analysis of the entire country prior to the
formal split. Some general figures (for example, population) are approximations, and many of these figures are not yet agreed
upon internationally. Though this profile does not attempt nor purport to predict the future of South Sudan, it is nevertheless
intended to highlight the pressures experienced by the new nation.
High Pressure
Low Capacity
Background
As the world’s newest nation, the South
Sudan’s contemporary history as a nation is
short, and is focused primarily on its
separation from its northern neighbor, Sudan.
After engaging in a civil war that lasted over
20 years that killed more then 2.5 million
people and displaced more then 5 million,
many of the underlying causes for the
conflict were not solved. Religious, ethnic
and regional divides were all highlighted and
exploited during the war and have continued
to exhibit a large influence over Sudan’s
politics. Since the 2005 Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA), several violent
struggles between the Janjaweed militia and
rebel groups such as the Sudan People's
Liberation Army (SPLA) and others have
occurred, which have resulted in death tolls
between 200,000 and 400,000, with another
2.5 million people being displaced. The
independence referendum was negotiated
under the auspices of Intergovernmental
Organization Authority for Development and
passed with 98% voting for independence
from Sudan.
Comparative Statistics
Population
GDP Per Capita (PPP)
12,000,000
China
Seychelles
1,339,000,000
86,500
US$
Life Expectancy
2,210*
Qatar
US
D.R. Congo
42.0
$ 91,379
US
$ 319
years
3
18.0
years
Japan
82.6 years
Japan
44.6 years
Swaziland
39.6 years
Uganda
17.6 years
* Figures for Sudan as South Sudan statistics unavailable
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Median Age
The Fund for Peace
Indicators
Social, Economic &
Political Pressures
Social & Economic Indicators (Pre-Partition Sudan)
Demographic
Pressures
Refugees
and IDPs
Group
Grievance
Human
Flight
Uneven
Development
Poverty and
Decline
8.5
9.6
9.9
8.2
9.1
6.4
26th
3rd
1st
9th
3rd
63rd
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Weak
Year-on-Year Trend
Year-on-Year Trend
Year-on-Year Trend
Year-on-Year Trend
Year-on-Year Trend
Year-on-Year Trend
Improved
5-Year Trend
Improved
Steady
Steady
5-Year Trend
Improved
5-Year Trend
Steady
Improved
5-Year Trend
Steady
5-Year Trend
Improved
Steady
Improved
5-Year Trend
Improved
All scores include Sudan and South Sudan as a whole, prior to partition.
Recent Improvements and Declines
The referendum in January resulted with
98.83% of the electorate opting for
secession. Independence has the potential of
changing many of the issues that surround
the region if they are given the attention
they require.
About 85% of oil coming from Sudan comes
from the South. Although oil revenue will be
split with the north as part of a negotiated
agreement, it will continue be a large
resource for the new Republic of South
Sudan. There is insufficient data to estimate
the GDP per capita for the new country.
•
Religious and racial violence led to the
split from the north, however ethnic and
tribal conflict could be a source of violence
within the newly formed county. The
Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), the
force that has dominated the south for
decades is formed mainly from the Dinka
tribe causing a power imbalance with the
other tribes of South Sudan.
•
Internal violence between the SPLA and
opposition groups has led to population
displacement.
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•
Drought has exacerbated food scarcity and
food prices.
•
98%
of South Sudan's governmental
income is derived from oil revenues,
making it the most oil dependent nation on
earth. Agriculture still comprises most of
the local economies.
•
Development activity is centered on Juba
and often does not make it out to isolated
rural communities.
South Sudan
Political & Military Indicators (Pre-Partition Sudan)
Legitimacy of
the State
Public
Services
Human
Rights
Security
Apparatus
Factionalized
Elites
External
Intervention
9.4
9.0
9.7
9.6
9.9
9.5
9th
6th
2nd
4th
1st
7th
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Poor
Year-on-Year Trend
Year-on-Year Trend
Year-on-Year Trend
Year-on-Year Trend
Year-on-Year Trend
Year-on-Year Trend
Improved
Improved
5-Year Trend
Steady
5-Year Trend
Steady
Steady
5-Year Trend
Improved
5-Year Trend
Steady
Steady
Steady
5-Year Trend
Worsened
Steady
5-Year Trend
Improved
All scores include Sudan and South Sudan as a whole, prior to partition.
Recent Improvements and Declines
•
The
SPLA
faces
multiple
short-term
challenges, including problems regarding
accountability, logistics, a lack of mobility,
and poor tactical communications. The
urgent need for training and new
equipment, as well as insufficient funds to
support development, will continue to
hamper the security services.
•
•
As recently as 2010, in an attempt to put
down a local rebellion by the Shilluk
kingdom, the SPLA was accused of using
rape and torture against civilians and
members of the royal family. This is one of
four major tribal rebellions that the SPLA
has put down with such measures.
Foremost in the long list of challenges
faced by the government of South Sudan is
the task of creating an inclusive and
representative administration among
different tribes with a history of bitter
enmity.
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The SPLA, which has a history of committing
human rights abuses, will be the professional
army of South Sudan. A significant challenge
exists in creating a lasting, professional army
out of the militia that has been the de facto
security provider in the South for decades.
Restoring the monopoly of force to an
unstable South Sudanese state presents
obvious difficulties.
Looking Ahead
Trends and Outlook
Dividing a Nation: Possible Scenarios for South Sudan
As South Sudan becomes an independent
nation, it will represent only the fourth
occasion that the Fund for Peace has divided
a country for the purpose of analysis. Most
recently, Serbia has been divided twice since
the beginning of the Failed States Index: in
2007, Serbia and Montenegro were analyzed
separately after the previous union was
dissolved; more recently in 2011, Kosovo was
removed from analysis on Serbia (though
Kosovo is not analyzed as part of the Failed
States Index). The chart, right, demonstrates
the performance of Serbia and Montenegro
after their division.
Although it is difficult to forecast trend lines,
particularly given the fact that North and
South Sudan have never been scored as
separate countries, considering baseline
conditions, one can project alternative
scenarios for stability in the two countries.
Splitting Up: Serbia & Montenegro, 2007-2011
Montenegro gains
independence from
Serbia
90
70
Serbia &
Montenegro
60
Montenegro
50
2005
2006
2007
2008
political diversity within the new country.
•
In addition to issues of governance, there
will be challenges of building capacity.
These include ensuring that the security
forces not only respect human rights, but
also have the training and equipment
needed to provide security. In addition, the
government will need to encourage broadbased economic development through fair
and transparent management of the oil
money (on which the nation will depend)
and the provision of basic services.
Prior to independence, much attention was
been placed on relations between the
South and the North. While these dynamics
will remain relevant, internal divisions will
gain greater prominence now that the
South must learn to govern itself. The
SPLM will need to be able to work
constructively with opposition parties
while managing ethnic, regional and
Kosovo
Serbia
With support from the international
community, South Sudan may succeed. But
there is the possibility that in the short term
it will become less stable than before. Some
of the issues that could affect this outcome:
•
Kosovo split
from Serbia
assessments
•
Finally, South Sudan will face enormous
social and demographic pressures in terms
of food security, drought, and displaced
populations.
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2009
2010
2011
One dynamic that needs much more attention
from policy makers and practitioners is the
stability of northern Sudan, postindependence. Like South Sudan, northern
Sudan will likely come under increased
pressure. It is unclear how the independence
of South Sudan will affect the calculations of
the Darfur rebels, for instance. Southerners
living in the north could be targeted with
violence. Sectarian divisions and the
repression of minorities could increase. If
northern Sudan is destabilized it could affect
the entire region.
Pressures on stability, as viewed through the
CAST framework and Failed States Index need
to be monitored and managed in both
countries, now more than ever.
South Sudan
Multi-Year Pressures Trend (Pre-Partition Sudan)
114
110
The large chart represents a magnified
portion of the full scale, shown below:
108
120
106
90
104
60
102
30
100
98
2005
Alert
Failed States Index (Pressures) Total Score
112
0
2006
2007
05
2008
06
07
08
09
2009
10
11
2010
2011
Outlook for South Sudan
As a result of the January 2011 referendum
for independence, South Sudan formally
declared its autonomy from the Republic of
Sudan on July 9. Amid the celebration, there
is growing recognition that from the start, the
world’s newest country is guaranteed to face
enormous pressures both from within its
territory and from across the border. Testing
its legitimacy, the Government of South
Sudan will face the challenge of
accommodating minority groups struggling
for representation and power within the new
structure. At the same time, the state will
need to establish control over the entire
territory without violating the human rights
of those groups which are loathe to integrate
politically and militarily. Border skirmishes
between the SPLA and northern forces are
likely, which could implicate affinity groups
that straddle both countries, further
complicating the internal pressures cited
above. Disputes with the Republic of Sudan
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over oil revenues could prove combustible,
with implications for development and
security in South Sudan. These political and
security issues will occur in the context of
ethnic tensions, poverty, drought, disease,
population displacement, rudimentary
infrastructure, and inadequate essential
service delivery. It will take much work and
support for the Republic of South Sudan to
succeed.
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