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Developing
Honduras
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March 31, 2009
Poverty and Development – Professor Bruce Moon
Livia Amado
Anne-Marie Boucher
Mark Degenhart
Kyle Gentile
Hilary Lewis
Ciara Lowery
Dan Newcombe!
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&
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%
Prevalence of Stunted Height due to
Malnutrition
% Children Under 5 Years Old
Source: World Bank 2007
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
%
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4&9$,"#$% 0)% ,+,"/% ")*% 2",#0)"/% +,;")% ",$"-?% H80-% "480$9$2$)5% 0-% 58$% :,&*+45% &'% ")% "//0")4$%
"2&)#% #&9$,)2$)5% "#$)40$-.% *&)&,-.% )&)#&9$,)2$)5"/% &,#")0D"50&)-% ]TEM-^.% ")*% /&4"/%
4&22+)053% &,#")0D"50&)-% ]="5$,% ;&",*-^.% =8048% ",$% 48",#$*% =058% &:$,"50)#% 58$% -3-5$2-%
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'"9&,";/3% =058% 58"5% &'% 05-% ,$#0&)"/% )$0#8;&,-?% B5% 0-% 80#8$,% 58")% 58$% c"50)% 72$,04")%"9$,"#$%]ZY%
:$,4$)5^%")*%2+48%80#8$,%58")%58"5%&'%05-%)$0#8;&,-%E+"5$2"/"%]g[%:$,4$)5^%")*%T04","#+"%]gg%
:$,4$)5^j%]F0-8$,%PQQY.%WY^?%H8$%'&//&=0)#%48",5%-8&=-%580-%#$)$,"/%0)4,$"-$%0)%="5$,%4&9$,"#$%
% of Population
")*%4&))$450&)%'&,%,+,"/%,$#0&)-%"4,&--%-$9$,"/%3$",-?%%
90
%%
80
%%
70
%%
60
%%
50
%%
40
%%
30
%%
20
%%
10
%%
0
%%
Access to Potable
Water
Source: US AID 2006
Tot
Coverag
al%
Rural
%
e%
coverag
Rural
%
e%
connectio
n%
197
4%
198
8%
199
3%
Year
199
9%
200
1%
&
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,+,"/% ",$"-?% H8$% :,&;/$2% &'% ="5$,% A+"/053% 0-% &)$% =8048% 4")% /$"*% 5&% 2&,$% *$9"-5"50)#%
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!"#$%!B%&'%"#%
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2$"-+,$2$)5-%",$%&'5$)%:+5%0)%:/"4$%5&%5,"41%:,&#,$--?%B)%2$"-+,0)#%-+48%-5"50-504-%,$#",*0)#%
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-$4+,053S% A+"/053.% :,&<02053% ")*% A+")5053?% iF&,% 0)5$,)"50&)"/% ,$:&,50)#% :+,:&-$-% :$&:/$% ",$%
4/"--0'0$*%"-%$)N&30)#%"44$--%5&%="5$,%0'%58$3%8"9$%"9"0/";/$%"5%/$"-5%PQ%/05$,-%"%*"3%&'%4/$")%="5$,%
',&2%"%-&+,4$%/$--%58")%O%10/&2$5$,%',&2%58$0,%8&2$j%]a)05$*%T"50&)-%PQQ\.%WQIWO^?%%
Real-Time Streamflow and Rainfall Data for the Ulua Watershed
Source: US Geological Survey 2008
%
!"#$%6K%&'%"#%
%
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0)% 58$% 2":% &'% 58$% =$-5$,)% ,$#0&)% &'% (&)*+,"-?% c"#&% *$% t&N&"% 0-% 58$% /",#$-5% /"1$.% ;+5% 58$%
:,$-$)4$%&'%/",#$%;&*0$-%&'%="5$,%0-%,",$%=0580)%58$%(&)*+,")%/")*-4":$%")*%-$$20)#/3%)&5%")%
02:&,5")5%'"45&,%5&%58$%-+::/3%&'%="5$,%]c0;,",3%&'%6&)#,$--%PQQg^?%%
Water and Sanitation Coverage by Percentage of
Households
Source: Fisher 1999
Origin of water
Pipe
Public
Private or Collective
Well
River or other
Total
(%)
89
57
32
5
6
Urban
(%)
97
88
9
1
2
Rural
(%)
82
24
58
10
8
Income quintile (%)
1
3
4
5
76
92 95
96
24
63 72
80
52
29 22
16
11
4
3
3
13
4
2
1
)
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,09$,-% ")*% [X% ',&2% #,&+)*="5$,?% b$:,$-$)50)#% &)/3% [?gX% &'% 5&5"/% ="5$,% -+::/3.% 58$% ,+,"/%
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",$"-%")*%"2&)#%58$%:&&,$,%4050D$)-?%
Access to Potable Water
Source: Fisher 2003%
%
!"#$%66%&'%"#%
%
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%
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Water Use by Sector
Source: US AID 2000
Country
Dominican
Republic
Guyana
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Peru
Colombia
Bolivia
Total Use
(Cubic kilometers)
Per capita Use
(Cubic meters)
Domestic
(% total)
Industrial
(% total)
Agricultural
(% total)
3.4
1.6
1.3
2
0.9
1.3
20.1
10.7
1.4
405.4
2163.9
205
175.5
133.2
256.3
775.7
254.3
166.8
32.1
1.7
24.8
6.5
8.2
14.4
8.4
50.3
13.3
1.7
0.9
15.8
13.4
11.2
2.5
10.1
3.8
3.5
66.2
97.4
59.4
80.2
80.6
83
81.6
54.9
83.3
%
%
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-+;-5")50"//3% /&=$,% 58")% 2&-5% &58$,% 4&+)5,0$-.% =058% 58$% $<4$:50&)% &'% "% '$=% 4&+)5,0$-% 0)% 58$%
6$)5,"/%")*%V&+58%72$,04")%,$#0&)-?%%
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-$,0&+-%58,$"5%5&%58$%-"'$53%&'%05-%="5$,%-&+,4$-?%H8$%,$-:&)-$%5&%580-%58,$"5%$)4&2:"--$-%58&-$%
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2&*$,)0D"50&)% &'% 58$% ="5$,% ")*% -")05"50&)% -$45&,% 8"9$% :,&#,$--$*% -/&=/3% ")*% :",50"//3?% F&,% "%
)+2;$,%&'%3$",-.%58$,$%8"-%;$$)%")%&)#&0)#%*$;"5$%;$5=$$)%58$%)"50&)"/.%-5"5$.%")*%2+)040:"/%
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H8$%'&//&=0)#%48",5%#09$-%"%-+22",3%&'%58$%i*$9$/&:2$)5%&'%="5$,%4&9$,"#$%")*%-")05"50&)%")*%
:&:+/"50&)%=058%"44$--?j%%
Evolution of the Coverage and Population with Domestic Connection
to Water and Sanitation
Source: US AID 2006
Complete water coverage
Urban
Rural
Complete sanitation coverage
Urban
Rural
1974
32.60%
75.30%
12.90%
14.40%
41.90%
1.60%
1988
56.00%
80.00%
39.00%
27.00%
53.00%
8.00%
1993
60.00%
83.00%
40.00%
25.00%
50.00%
5.00%
1999
59.00%
75.00%
44.00%
68.00%
88.00%
49.00%
2001
74.30%
90.00%
69.00%
78.00%
94.00%
61.00%
%
%
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58$%,0#85%',&2%ORRWIORRR?%
Effects of Hurricane Mitch on Budget Allocation
Source: Central Bank of Honduras
%
%
%
%
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%i!"9$*%,&"*-%",$%58&-$%-+,'"4$*%=058%4,+-8$*%-5&)$%]2"4"*"2^%")*%83*,&4",;&)%;0)*$,%&,%;05+20)0D$*%"#$)5-.%
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PQQW^?%
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%
Formal Electricity Coverage
1989-2001
World Bank 2003
Year
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Households
851,201
879,482
908,688
938,817
970,055
1,002,218
1,009,802
1,036,694
1,063,726
1,169,974
1,195,341
1,197,815
1,230,391
(% of households)
33
35
36
38
40
43
45
47
50
50
52
55
62
%%
(&=$9$,.% "% #,$"5$,% *09$,-053% &'% $/$45,04053% ,$-&+,4$-% =&+/*% ;$% ;$)$'040"/% ;$4"+-$% &'% 4/02"5$%
9",0";0/053% 0)% 58$% ,$#0&)?% iB)% PQQY.% (&)*+,"-% #$)$,"5$*% gZX% &'% 05-% $/$45,04053% ',&2% 58$,2"/%
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0)%"%/&--%&'%:,&*+4509053?%B)%PQQ\.%58$%G_B%'&+)*%58"5%(&)*+,"-%/&-5%[X%&'%-"/$-%"-%"%,$-+/5%&'%
0)4&)-0-5$)5%$/$45,04053.%=8048%="-%4&)-0-5$)5%=058%58$%"9$,"#$%,$#0&)"/%*"5"?%H8$%02:&,5")4$%&'%
$/$45,04053%5&%*$9$/&:2$)5%0-%4/$",J%58$%=$"/580$,%:$&:/$%;$4&2$%58$%2&,$%$/$45,04053%58$3%=0//%
*$2")*?%(&=$9$,.%58$%*$9$/&:2$)5%&'%58$%$/$45,04053%0)*+-5,3%8"-%;$$)%#,&=0)#%"5%"%,"5$%58"5%
4")% 2$$5% 58$% )$$*-% &'% 58$% :$&:/$?% b$/0";0/053% ,"58$,% 58")% "2&+)5% &,% "44$--% 5&% 58$% $/$45,04053%
,$-&+,4$%0-%58$%2&-5%02:&,5%48"//$)#$%'"40)#%58$%0)*+-5,3%5&*"3?%%
%
%
!"#$%#"%&'%"#%
%
Correlation between Income and Access to
Electricity
Source: World Bank 2003
%
F0)"//3.% -"'$53% &'% ;&*3% ")*% :,&:$,53% 0)% 58$% '"4$% &'% 4090/% ")*% 0)5$,)"50&)"/% =",.% 58$'5.% ,":$.%
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%
Personal Security Incidents (Per 100,000)
Source: Winslow
Murder
Rape
Robbery
Aggravated assault
Honduras
154.02
1.17
5.12
44.4
Japan
1.1
1.48
2.71
15.4
USA
6.3
34.4
165.2
360.5
Burglary
Larceny
Motor vehicle theft
4.28
3.23
25.83
187.93
1198.13
28.37
862
2728.37
459
%
H8$%#$)$,"/%5,$)*%&'%58$-$%2$"-+,$2$)5-%="-%0)4,$"-0)#%0)%(&)*+,"-%;$5=$$)%ORRg%")*%ORRW?%
G80/$% "##,"9"5$*% "--"+/5% ")*% ;+,#/",3% *$4,$"-$*% -/0#85/3.% -$,0&+-% 0)4,$"-$-% 0)% 58$% &58$,%
2$"-+,$2$)5-% =$,$% &;-$,9$*% ]$<4/+*0)#% /",4$)3.% =8048% ="-% )&5% ,$:&,5$*^?% H8$-$% '0)*0)#-%
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e&,$&9$,.%0)%4&2:",0-&)%5&%-&2$%&'%05-%)$0#8;&,-.%(&)*+,"-%$<:$,0$)4$-%,$/"509$/3%80#8%/&--$-%
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%
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Primary School Completion Rate
P(14(-.)*+)F('(?%-.)Q=()R1*3@)
Source: World Bank 2007
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Public Expenditure on Education
Source: UNESCO 2008
GDP Per Capita ($)
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
%
% of Total Government Expenditure
Public Expenditure on Education
Source: UNESCO 2008
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
%
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Population Age 15-64
% of Population
Source: World Bank 2007
5
8%
5
7%
5
6%
5
5%
5
4%
5
3%
5
2%
5
1%
5
0%
4
9%
4
8%
198
4%
198
6%
198
8%
199
0%
199
2%
199
4%
199
6%
199
8%
Yea
r%
200
0%
200
2%
200
3%
200
4%
200
5%
200
6%
200
7%
200
5%
200
6%
200
7%
%
Labor Force Participation Rate
% of Population Age 15-64
Source: World Bank 2007
8
0%
7
0%
6
0%
5
0%
4
0%
3
0%
2
0%
1
0%
0%
198
4%
198
6%
198
8%
199
0%
199
2%
199
4%
199
6%
199
8%
Yea
r%
200
0%
200
2%
200
3%
200
4%
%%%
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'&,$0#)%4":05"/.%(&)*+,"-@%4+,,$)43.%58$%c$2:0,".%2+-5%,$2"0)%0)%*$2")*%&)%'&,$0#)%$<48")#$%
2",1$5-?%%M)%"%80-5&,04"/%)&5$.%58$%4+,,$)43%8"-%;$$)%-5";/$%*+,0)#%58$%:"-5%-$9$,"/%3$",-?%%7-%
3&+%4")%-$$%',&2%58$%iU<48")#$%b"5$j%48",5.%"'5$,%3$",-%&'%*$4/0)0)#%9"/+$%0)%4&2:",0-&)%5&%58$%
aV%*&//",.%58$%c$2:0,"%8"-%;$$)%-5";/$%-0)4$%PQQg?%%
Official Exchange Rate
Source: World Bank 2007
LCU per US dollar
PQ%
OW%
O\%
O[%
OP%
OQ%
W%
\%
[%
P%
Q%
%
7-%4")%;$%-$$)%',&2%58$%#,":8%&'%iB)'/"50&)%b"5$j.%58$%0)'/"50&)%,"5$%8"-%;$$)%*$4,$"-0)#%"5%58$%
-"2$%502$%$<48")#$%,"5$-%8"9$%;$$)%-5";0/0D0)#?%%
%
%
%
%
%
!"#$%LB%&'%"#%
%
Inflation Rate, Consumer Prices
Source: Wold Bank 2007
Yg%
Annual %
YQ%
Pg%
PQ%
Og%
OQ%
g%
Q%
%
T$<5%=$%=0//%:,$*045%'+5+,$%4+,,$)43%-5";0/053%;"-$*%&)%(&)*+,"-@%;"/")4$%&'%:"32$)5-?%%F0,-5.%
=$% =0//% *090*$% 58$% ;"/")4$% &'% :"32$)5-% 0--+$-% "::/04";/$% 8$,$% 0)5&% 5=&% '+)*"2$)5"/%
4&2:&)$)5-?% % M)% &)$% 8")*.% =$% =0//% $<"20)$% 58$% '/$<0;0/053% &'% 58$% ;"/")4$% &'% 02:&,5-% ")*%
$<:&,5-.% ")*% "-% -+48.% 0)% =8"5% ="3-% (&)*+,"-@% 5,"*$% *$'0405% 4&+/*% ;$% ,$*+4$*?% % M)% 58$% &58$,%
8")*.%=$%=0//%")"/3D$%58$%4+,,$)5%4":05"/%'/&=-%58"5%'0)")4$%580-%*$'0405.%"-%=$//%"-%:,&-:$45-%'&,%
'+,58$,%'0)")4$?%
%
(&)*+,"-%8"*%"%Y?P%;0//0&)%aV%*&//",%5,"*$%*$'0405%0)%PQQZ?%H80-%0-%*&+;/$%=8"5%05%="-%0)%PQQg%")*%
&9$,%YQ%502$-%=8"5%05%="-%0)%ORRQ%]BeF%PQQZ^?%7'5$,%")"/3D0)#%58$%4&2:&-050&)%&'%02:&,5-%")*%
$<:&,5-.% 58$% *"5"% ,$9$"/% -&2$% 02:&,5")5% 5,$)*-.% =8048% -8$*% /0#85% &)% ;&58% -+;-5")50"/%
0)"*$A+"40$-%"-%=$//%"-%4&)50)+0)#%02:,&9$2$)5-%&'%58$%(&)*+,")%;"/")4$%&'%5,"*$?%G$%;$#0)%
=058% 58$% '&//&=0)#% #,":8.% =8048% *0-:/"3-% 5,$)*-% 0)% 58$% $<:&,5-% ")*% 02:&,5-% &'% 4&22$,40"/%
-$,904$-?% 6&22$,40"/% -$,904$-% ",$% 4&2:,0-$*% &'% 4&2:+5$,-.% 4&22+)04"50&)-.% ")*% &58$,-%
4"5$#&,3.%0)%"**050&)%5&%0)-+,")4$%")*%'0)")40"/%-$,904$-.%5,")-:&,5%-$,904$-.%")*%5,"9$/%-$,904$-%
!"#$%AK%&'%"#%
%
]G&,/*%C")1%PQQZ^?%H8$%0)4,$"-$%0)%;&58%02:&,5-%")*%$<:&,5-%8"-%;$$)%,$/"509$/3%$9$).%=058%"%
-+;-5")50"/%#":%&44+,,0)#%&)/3%0)%58$%2&-5%,$4$)5%3$",-?%c&&10)#%*$$:$,%"5%58$%4&2:&-050&)%&'%
58$-$% 4&22$,40"/% -$,904$-.% =$% 8"9$% *0-:/"3$*% 58$% :$,4$)5"#$% &'% 4&22$,40"/% -$,904$-%
"44&+)5$*% '&,% ;3% $"48% 4&2:&)$)5% ")*% 8"9$% +-$*% 58$% 3$",-% ORRg.% PQQQ.% ")*% PQQg% '&,%
4&2:",0-&)?%%
%
Commercial Services Trade
Value of Services (Millions of
USD)
1,200
1,000
800
Source: World Bank 2007
6&22$,40"/%-$,904$-%$<:&,5-%
6&22$,40"/%-$,904$-%02:&,5-%
600
400
200
0
%
1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
72&)#% 4"5$#&,0$-% &'% $<:&,5-.% 5,"9$/% -$,904$-% -5")*% &+5% "-% 8"90)#% 0)4,$"-$*% -+;-5")50"//3% "-% "%
:,&:&,50&)%&'%5&5"/%4&22$,40"/%-$,904$%$<:&,5-?%%G80/$%5,"9$/%-$,904$-%8"-%-$$)%")%0)4,$"-$%"-%"%
:,&:&,50&)% &'% &9$,"//% 4&22$,40"/% -$,904$-% $<:&,5-.% 58$% &58$,% 4"5$#&,0$-% 8"9$% -$$)% "% ,$/"509$%
*$4/0)$?% H,"9$/% -$,904$-% 0)4/+*$% 0)*+-5,0$-% /01$% 5&+,0-2.% =8048% 8"9$% )&5% '+//3% *$9$/&:$*% 0)%
(&)*+,"-% ;+5% 8"9$% "% #,$"5% :&5$)50"/% '&,% #,&=58% ")*% $<:")-0&)% 0)% 58$% '+5+,$?% % H8+-.% 5,"9$/%
-$,904$-% -$$2% 5&% 4&)-505+5$% 58$% ",$"% &'% #,$"5$-5% :&5$)50"/% '&,% (&)*+,"-@% 4&22$,40"/% -$,904$%
$<:&,5%$<:")-0&)?%%
!"#$%A!%&'%"#%
%
%
Composition of Commercial Services Exports
72&)#%4&22$,40"/%-$,904$%02:&,5-.%5,")-:&,5%-$,904$-.%*$-:05$%*$4/0)0)#%',&2%\QX%0)%ORRg%5&%
Source: World Bank 2007
6&2:+5$,.%4&22+)04"50&)-.%")*%&58$,%
[RX%0)%PQQ\.%4&2:,0-$%"%/",#$%2"N&,053?%%H8$%&58$,%",$"-%$058$,%,$2"0)$*%4&)-5")5%&,%'/+45+"5$*%
B)-+,")4$%")*%'0)")40"/%
H,")-:&,5%
&)/3% 20)+5$/3% 0)% &,*$,% 5&% 2"1$% +:%
'&,% 580-% *$4,$"-$% &'% 5,")-:&,5% -$,904$-?% H,"9$/% -$,904$-.% '&,%
2000
2006
1995
H,"9$/%
0)-5")4$.%-"=%")%0)4,$"-$%',&2%OWX%0)%ORRg%5&%PWX%0)%PQQ\?%H,"9$/%-$,904$-%8"-%;$$)%58$%&)/3%
-+-5"0)$*% 0)4,$"-$% "2&)#% "//% 4"5$#&,0$-% &'% 4&22$,40"/% -$,904$% 02:&,5-.% =8048% 0-% &;-$,9$*% 5&%
2&9$% 0)% -5$:% =058% 58$% -02+/5")$&+-% 0)4,$"-$% &'% 5,"9$/% -$,904$-% "-% "% :,&:&,50&)% &'% $<:&,5-% "-%
=$//?%6&2:+5$,-.%4&22+)04"50&)-.%")*%&58$,%-$,904$-%'/+45+"5$*%",&+)*%PgX.%=80/$%0)-+,")4$%
%
")*%'0)")40"/%-$,904$-%4&2:,0-$*%"%,"58$,%0)-0#)0'04")5%-/09$,?%%%%
%%%%%%
%
%
B)%4&2:",0-&)%=058%4&22$,40"/%-$,904$-.%58$%5,"*$%&'%2$,48")*0-$%8"-%"%2+48%#,$"5$,%:&5$)50"/%
5&%02:"45%5,"*$%;"/")4$?%e$,48")*0-$%$<:&,5-%")*%02:&,5-%0)4/+*$%"#,04+/5+,"/%,"=%2"5$,0"/-.%
'&&*.%'+$/.%2")+'"45+,$-.%")*%&,$-%")*%2$5"/-%]G&,/*%C")1%PQQZ^?%7-%=05)$--$*%',&2%58$%#,":8%
;$/&=.%58$%5,"*$%&'%2$,48")*0-$%0)%(&)*+,"-%8"-%=05)$--$*%")%"/",20)#%*09$,#$)4$%&'%02:&,5-%
")*% $<:&,5-% -0)4$% 58$% -5",5% &'% 58$% 20//$))0+2?% 7'5$,% ,$2"0)0)#% ,"58$,% 4&)-5")5% '&,% ";&+5% "%
*$4"*$.% 2$,48")*0-$% $<:&,5-% 8"9$% -$$)% &)/3% 2&*$-5% #,&=58% 4&2:",$*% 5&% 58$% $<:/&-0&)% &'%
2$,48")*0-$%02:&,5-?%%
!"#$%A6%&'%"#%
%
Merchandise Trade
Source: World Bank 2007
%W?QQ%%
%Z?QQ%%
Billions of US Dollars
%\?QQ%%
e$,48")
*0-$%
$<:&,5-%
%g?QQ%%
%[?QQ%%
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4/&-$,% "5% 48")#$-% 0)% 4&2:&-050&)% &'% 2$,48")*0-$% 5,"*$.% ,$9$"/0)#% 5,$)*-% 58"5% -$$2% 5&% &''$,%
-&2$%8&:$%;+5%"/-&%&58$,-%58"5%-8&+/*%4,$"5$%:")04?%H8$%;,$"1*&=)%&'%2$,48")*0-$%$<:&,5-%0)%
ORRg%0-%"%:",504+/",/3%*0-5+,;0)#%&;-$,9")4$.%#09$)%05-%8$"93%*$:$)*$)4$%+:&)%'&&*%$<:&,5-?%B5%
0-% "/-&% 4,+40"/% 5&% )&5$% 58$% 5020)#% &'% 580-% #,":8.% 58,$$% 3$",-% ;$'&,$% (+,,04")$% e0548% 0)% ORRW.%
=8048% *$9"-5"5$*% 58$% 4&+)5,3-0*$% &'% (&)*+,"-% ")*% 58$% "#,04+/5+,"/% :,&*+4509053% '&,% 3$",-% 5&%
'&//&=?% H8$% '&//&=0)#% #,":8-% #09$)% '&,% PQQQ% ")*% PQQ\% $48&% 580-% *$:$)*$)4$% +:&)% '&&*.% ;+5%
58$,$% 0-% "% 5,$)*% 5&=",*-% *09$,-0'04"50&)% &'% $<:&,5-% 58"5% -8&+/*% -$)*% "% -0#)% &'% 8&:$.% $-:$40"//3%
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:&-0509$%2&9$%=8048%0-%/$--%,$/0")5%&)%58$%+):,$*045";0/053%&'%58$%4/02"5$%"-%=$//%"-%58$%/0205$*%
-+::/3%&'%)"5+,"/%,$-&+,4$-?%%
%
!"#$%A#%&'%"#%
%
Composition of Merchandise Exports
!BBL)
Source: World Bank 2007
7#,04+/5+,"/%,"=%2"5$,0"/-%
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