MORMON PRESIDENTS AND MOSQUES NEXT DOOR An Examina8on of American A<tudes Toward Religious Minori8es in 2012 Public
Religion
Research
Institute
Daniel Cox, Director of Research at the Public Religion Research Ins8tute Data Sources •  Public Religion Research Ins8tute, PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey, May 2012 •  Public Religion Research Ins8tute, American Values Survey, September 2011 •  PRRI Religion and Poli8cs Tracking Survey, December 2011 •  PRRI Religion and Poli8cs Tracking Survey, October 2011 •  Public Religion Research Ins8tute, Pluralism, Immigra8on, Civic Integra8on Survey, August 2011 •  Public Religion Research Ins8tute, PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey, July 2011 •  Pew Research Center, Poli8cal and Media Survey, July 2011 •  Pew Research Center, Religion & Public Life Survey, August 2009 Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 2 MORMONS AND MUSLIMS IN CONTEXT Favorability of Religious Groups in the U.S. Knowledge about Beliefs of Mormonism and Islam Percep8ons of Similarity or Difference with Mormons and Muslims Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 3 Knowledge of the Religious Beliefs and PracDces of Mormons and Muslims How Much Do You Know About... A lot A li]le Nothing at all 57 60 55 50 40 29 30 20 14 27 17 10 0 The religious beliefs and prac8ces of Muslims The religious beliefs and prac8ces of Mormons Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, Pluralism, Immigra8on, Civic Integra8on Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 4 InteracDon with Muslims and Mormons Frequency of ConversaDons with Muslims and Mormons Once a day Occasionally Seldom Never 50 45 41 40 40 43 40 36 39 35 28 30 27 24 25 23 20 15 10 13 11 6 6 11 6 5 0 Muslim Mormon African American Hispanic Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, Pluralism, Immigra8on, Civic Integra8on Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 5 Similarity/Difference of Religious Beliefs Do You Think the Muslim Religion and Your Own Religious Beliefs Are Similar or Different? 17 Do You Think the Mormon Religion and Your Own Religious Beliefs Are Similar or Different? Very similar 3 19 14 3 18 Somewhat similar 19 Somewhat different Very different 24 36 47 Don't know/Refused Source: Pew Research Center, 2009 Religion & Public Life Survey, August 2009 (N=4,013) Excludes the Unaffiliated and Muslims/Mormons Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 6 Feelings Toward Religious Groups in the U.S. Favorability of Religious Groups Among All Americans Favorable opinion Unfavorable opinion 90 Can't rate/Refused 84 83 80 67 70 58 60 50 45 46 40 32 30 20 20 9 10 9 12 10 7 7 8 0 Atheists Muslims Mormons Catholics Jews Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, Pluralism, Immigra8on, Civic Integra8on Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 7 Comfort with a Mormon & Muslim Serving as President How Comfortable Would You Be with a Muslim or a Mormon Serving as President of the U.S.? Comfortable 70 60 Uncomfortable 63 52 50 44 40 33 30 20 10 0 A Mormon serving as President A Muslim serving as President Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 8 MITT ROMNEY AND THE MORMON QUESTION Comfort with a Mormon President Knowledge about Romney’s Faith Views Among Evangelicals Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 9 Comfort with a Mormon President by Religious TradiDon How Comfortable Would You Be with a Mormon Serving as President of the U.S.? 70 60 50 Comfortable 64 52 50 44 46 Uncomfortable 47 49 40 30 61 47 50 35 29 20 10 0 All Americans White Mainline Protestants Catholics Unaffiliated White Black Protestants Evangelicals Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 10 Knowledge of Romney’s Religion Knowledge of Mi_ Romney's Religious Beliefs % of voters that know Romney is a Mormon 70 65 60 52 51 50 43 40 30 20 10 0 All Voters Republican Voters Independent Voters Democra8c Voters Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey, May 2012 (N=1,006) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 11 The GOP Base and Views of Mormons Views about Mormonism and the Religious Beliefs of Mormons Percentage of voters who say Mormonism is not a Chris>an religion All Voters 36% 49% White Evangelical Republican Tea Party 39% 31% Percentage of voters who say Mormons have different religious beliefs than their own 66% 68% All Voters White Evangelical 61% Republican Tea Party 50% Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 12 Knowledge of Romney’s Faith and Favorability Increasing Concurrently Increased Knowledge of Romney's Faith and Favorability Among White Evangelical Voters Favorable view of Romney Know Romney is Mormon 80 67 70 55 60 50 44* 63 52 40 40 30 20 10 0 Jul-­‐11 Aug-­‐11 Sep-­‐11 Oct-­‐11 Nov-­‐11 Dec-­‐11 Jan-­‐12 Feb-­‐12 Mar-­‐12 Apr-­‐12 May-­‐12 Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey, July 2012 (N=1,012); PRRI Religion and Poli8cs Tracking Survey, October 2011 (N=1,019); PRRI Religion and Poli8cs Tracking Survey, December 2011 (N=1,012); PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey, May 2012 (N=1,006) Note: July 2011 number is among white evangelical Protestants overall and not white evangelical Protestant voters Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 13 The White Evangelical Vote If the 2012 PresidenDal ElecDon Were Held Today, Who Would You Vote For? Mi] Romney 80 70 68 Barack Obama 67 60 50 40 30 19 20 22 10 0 All White Evangelical Voters White Evangelical voters who say Romney's religious beliefs are different from their own Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, PRRI/RNS Religious News Survey, May 2012 (N=1,006) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 14 Measuring Hidden Concern about a Mormon President Survey Experiment: How Many Statements Worry or Bother You? Control Treatment A A family member marrying a born-­‐again Chris8an A B An atheist teaching elementary school in your community B C A Mosque being built near your home C A Mormon becoming president of the United States D 0.98 Mean number of statements selected (Out of 3) 1.40 (Out of 4) Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 15 Measuring Hidden Concern about a Mormon President Expression of Hidden Concern about a Mormon Becoming President among Voters All Voters White Evangelical White Mainline Unaffiliated Catholic Democrat Independent Republican Conserva8ve Moderate Liberal Direct Measure of Concern % 42 Indirect Measure of Concern % 42 Hidden Concern % Pts. 0 47 30 48 42 50 38 36 39 43 46 49 57 43 41 54 37 30 42 38 41 2 27 -­‐5 -­‐1 4 -­‐1 -­‐6 3 -­‐5 -­‐5 Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 16 MUSLIMS IN AMERICAN SOCIETY Challenges to Assimila8on and Civic Integra8on Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 17 Challenges to Muslim AssimilaDon and Acceptance in the U.S. • 1) Value Incompa8bility • 2) Cultural Encroachment • 3) American Foreign Policy; Geopoli8cs • 4) Islamic Extremism and Terrorism Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 18 1) Islam at odds with American Values Islam at Odds with American Values and Way of Life Agree 60 50 Disagree 54 47 48 43 40 52 40 30 20 10 0 General Public Millennials Seniors Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, Pluralism, Immigra8on, Civic Integra8on Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 19 2) Comfort with Muslims in Society Feeling of Comfort with Muslims in Society Comfortable 60 51 50 48 Uncomfortable 57 53 51 46 45 41 40 30 20 10 0 Muslim women wearing Mosque being built near the Burqua your home Group of Muslim men praying at an airport Muslim teaching elementary school Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, Pluralism, Immigra8on, Civic Integra8on Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 20 2) PercepDons that American Muslims want to Establish Shari’a Law American Muslims ulDmately want to establish Shari'a law as the law of the land in the U.S. Disagree Agree Don't Know 9 30 61 What It Means to Be American: ALtudes in an Increasingly Diverse America Ten Years AOer 9/11 21 3. PercepDons of Muslims’ Views of the U.S. •  In general do you think that people in Muslim countries have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable opinion of the United States? •  16% Favorable •  79% Unfavorable •  5% Don’t know (Vol.) •  Do you think the unfavorable opinions that people in Muslim countries have about the U.S. are generally jus8fied or not jus8fied? •  24% Jus8fied •  73% Not jus8fied •  4% Don’t know (Vol.) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 22 4) Support for Extremism Among U.S. Muslims Support for Extremism Among Muslim Americans Great deal Fair amount Not too much None at all 40 33 30 25 20 15 12 10 0 All Americans Source: Pew Research Center, Poli8cal and Media Survey, July 2011 (N=1,501) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 23 4) Commiing Acts of Violence: ChrisDans vs. Muslims The Double Standard EvaluaDng Violence Commi_ed by Self-­‐IdenDfied ChrisDans and Muslims Yes 90 No Don’t know/Refused 83 80 70 60 50 44 48 40 30 20 13 10 4 9 0 Believe perpetrator really is Chris8an Believe perpetrator really is Muslim Source: Public Religion Research Ins8tute, Pluralism, Immigra8on, Civic Integra8on Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450) Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 24 Conclusions? •  The Mormon Ques8on –  There is evidence that Romney’s faith influenced voters, par8cularly evangelical voters in the primary elec8on who strongly supported Santorum, but this also had a lot to do with other cultural factors as well (Massachuse]s, Wealthy background etc.) –  In the general elec8on evangelicals will come home. »  White mainline Protestants? •  Muslims in American Society –  Future trends? –  Genera8on differences –  New Data Mormon Presidents and Mosques Next Door 25 MORMON PRESIDENTS AND MOSQUES NEXT DOOR An Examina8on of American A<tudes Toward Religious Minori8es in 2012 Follow us Online: Ø  www.facebook.com/publicreligion Ø  www.twi]er.com/publicreligion Ø  www.publicreligion.org Public
Religion
Research
Institute
Daniel Cox, Director of Research at the Public Religion Research Ins8tute