OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
Situation and problems of decrease of Japanese students
in Science and Technology fields
Yasushi Ogura
National Institute for Educational Policy Research, Japan
OECD/GSF ‘Declining interest in science studies among young people’ committee member
OECD/PISA Science Expert Group member
The results of Japanese students in PISA 2003 showed their high level of achievements in
the domains of mathematical literacy, scientific literacy, and problem solving. PISA tells us
the situation of how well young people are prepared to meet the challenges of today’s
knowledge societies. It does not tell, however, the situation of preparation of young people
who are coming to Science and Technology (S&T) fields to study and work and then engage in
researches, developments or productions in S&T.
In many countries within OECD including Japan, there is a concern of declining interest
among young people in studying S&T and then decreasing the number of young people who go
on to S&T fields. Situations of and activities to this problem in various countries have been
researched and discussed in GSF committee on ‘Declining interest in science studies among
young people’.
This presentation introduces some features of situation and effective results of activities in
Japan.
1
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
1. Decrease of Japanese students in Science and Technology
Decrease of the number of young people in S&T fields will lead the lack of human resources in
researches, developments or productions in S&T fields. It is predicted in Japan that the
number of students who study in S&T fields will be rapidly decreased.
1.1 Change in the number of new entrants to universities
In 1998 and after, the proportion of new entrants in Engineering Science and Natural Science
to all new entrants in universities has been gradually decreased to the level of 20.5% in 2003,
while it had been about stable during 1985-1998 at the range of 22-23%. Alternatively, the
field of medical sciences and new interdisciplinary fields have been growing their proportions
of students in universities after 1998. Engineering Science has reduced their number of new
entrants by 8.3% from 1998 to 2003.
Proportion of new entrants to universties by specialty
(Based on MEXT 'Gakko-kihon Tyosa' data)
45%
40%
Humanities
Social Science
Natural Sciences
Engineering Science
Agriculture
Health
Merchant
Home Economics
Education
Arts
Others
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
86
87
19
19
19
85
0%
2
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
1.2 Change in the number of candidates to universities
Admission ratio of the number of candidates to the number of new entrants in universities
can be compared by academic fields. During the 10 years of 1990’s, the admission ratio in
Engineering Science had been decreasing and then about stable after 2000. During this
period, the ratio in Natural Science has been about stable at the lowest level among fields.
Across all fields, the ratio had depressed between 1998 and 1999. For a long time period, the
ratio in Engineering Science has been decreasing. The field of Engineering Science was used
to be the most popular one in the late 1980’s, but it has now become a less popular field as
well as Natural Science.
Ratio of candidates for admission and entrants to universities
by specialty (Based on MEXT 'Gakko-kihon Tyosa' data)
12.0
10.0
8.0
Humanities
Social Science
Natural Sciences
Engineering Science
Agriculture
Health
6.0
4.0
2.0
3
03
20
01
02
20
20
99
00
20
19
97
98
19
19
95
96
19
19
93
94
19
19
91
92
19
19
89
90
19
19
87
88
19
19
19
19
85
86
0.0
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
1.3 Decrease of younger population
Average number of new births from one woman is now 1.29 that is the lowest record in Japan,
while the average life length of Japanese is the longest of the world. The total population will
start to decrease from 2007. It is predicted that the size of producing age population (15 to 64
year olds) will be 14% in 2020 and 20% in 2030 less than that in 2000. Assumed the same
proportion (approx. 88%) of high school graduates to the whole population of the same age,
number of high school graduates will be decreased 20% in 2010 and 23% in 2020 from the in
2000. Hence, number of university students in S&T fields will also be decreased if the
proportion to all university students will not change. Namely, it will be difficult for industry to
recruit human resources in S&T fields. At the same time, schools may suffer from lacking
science and mathematics teachers.
‘Population Pyramid’ in 2003
(Japan Statistical Yearbook 2005)
4
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
2. Interest in S&T fields
Making it higher the proportion of students who want S&T studies and jobs in the same
cohort can solve the problem of lacking human resource in S&T fields. In terms of this aspect,
there is a large room to elevate the level of interest in S&T fields in Japan.
2.1 Interest in S&T jobs
In the result of IEA/TIMSS 2003 questionnaire, about 20% of Japanese 8th graders
affirmatively answered to ‘I would like a job that involved using science’, while the
proportions were 40-50% in Australia, England, USA, and so on. Much higher proportion of
students in many countries is interested in getting a S&T related job than that in Japan.
'I would like a job that involved using science.'
(IEA/TIMSS2003, Grade 8, Selected Countries)
TIMSS 2003 Science Score
600
Singapore
ChineseTaipei
Korea
550
HongKong
England
Japan
Australia
NewZealand
UnitedStates
Scotland
500
Norway
Malaysia
Italy
450
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Percentage of students responded 'Agree a lot' or 'Agree a little'.
5
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
2.2 Motivation – comparison among OECD countries
In the OECD/PISA 2003 questionnaire, various indices were measured as background
variables to explain the level of mathematical literacy. (PISA in 2006 will explore the
background factors of scientific literacy.)
Instrumental Motivation to do Mathematics is an index composed of responses in four
questions such as an example of ‘Making an effort in mathematics is worth it because it will
help me in the work that I want to do later on’ and an important predictor for course selection,
career choice and performance.
The result of Japanese 15 year olds was at the top level in mathematical literacy, but at the
bottom level in the Instrumental Motivation to do Mathematics as shown in the graph below.
Japanese students are hardly aware of the value of studying mathematics on their future.
Instrumental Motivation to do Mathematics & Mathematical Literacy
e.g. 'Making an effort in Mathematics is worth it because it will help me in the work
that I want to do later on.' (OECD/PISA2003, Selected Countries)
PISA 2003 Mathematical Literacy Score
550
Finland
Korea
Netherlands
Japan
Canada
Belgium
525
Switzerland
Australia
New Zealand
Iceland
Denmark
Sweden United Kingdom
Germany
Ireland
Slovak Republic
Norway
Poland
Spain
United States
Czech Republic
France
Austria
500
Luxembourg
475
Portugal
Italy
450
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Average of Index 'Instrumental Motivation to do Mathematics'
6
0.8
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
2.3 Motivation – comparison with other subjects
In the questionnaire result of 2004 National curriculum achievement survey (NIER, 2005) for
5th grade through 9th grade students, the proportion of students who answered affirmatively
to the question ‘the <subject> is important regardless of entrance examinations’ (<subject> is
replaced by each name of five subjects) was the lowest in Science among five subjects as
shown in the graph below. Science is thought as relatively the most unimportant subject by
Japanese students.
Proportions of students who think the study of each subject is
important regardless of entrance examinations from grade 5 to 9
(Based on National Curriculum Assessment data: NIER, 2005)
100
90
Percentage (%)
80
70
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
Grade 9
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Japanese
Social
Math
7
Science
English
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
3
Findings of effective activities
Increasing the number of students in S&T fields is urgent need in Japan. There have been
various activities at elementary and secondary education. In 2002, MEXT has started
national initiative called as ‘Kagaku-Gijyutsu Rika Daisuki Plan’ (Science Literacy
Enhancement Initiatives, in english) in which various activities for promoting S&T education
has been organized and supported.
At this moment, some effective activities have been found in results of research.
3.1 Science learning from science experts
Inviting science experts (scientists, engineers) to science lessons is not an easy activity for
schools because of the limitations of human and financial resources. However, students who
have experienced this type of activity are significantly more motivated to learn science than
students who have not. The graph below is an example of this effect. This type of learning is
one of activities most emphasized in the ‘Kagaku-Gijyutsu Rika Daisuki Plan’
'I want to listen to scientists or engineers talk.'
and specialist visit study. (N=20984, Ogura, 2005)
5.00
5.Strongly Agree ← 3.Neither → 1.Strongly Disagree
4.50
All differences between groups of without and
with are statistically significant
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
Grade5
Grade6
Grade7
Without Specialist Visit Study
Grade8
Grade9
Grade10
With Specialist Visit Study
8
Grade11
Grade12
National Average
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
3.2 Science learning by visiting science museums and research institutes
Visiting science and technology museums or research institutes to have science lessons for
students is not an easy activity for schools because of the difficulty of making enough time
and the limitation of financial resources. However, students who have experienced this type of
activity are significantly more motivated to learn science than students who have not. The
graph below is an example of this effect. This type of learning is also one of activities
emphasized in the ‘Kagaku-Gijyutsu Rika Daisuki Plan’
'I study and learn by myself what I am interested in about science.'
and science museum study (N=20984, Ogura, 2005)
5
5.Strongly Agree ← 3.Neither → 1.Strongly Disagree
4.5
4
Differences in Grade 7 through Grade 12 between groups of without
and with are statistically significant
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
Grade5
Grade6
Grade7
Without Sci Museum Study
Grade8
Grade9
With Sci Museum Study
9
Grade10
Grade11
National Average
Grade12
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
3.3 Science learning by going out (field study)
Going out into the field to study science in nature with living things is not an easy activity for
schools because of the difficulty of making enough time, limitation of financial resources, and
safety issues. However, students who have experienced this type of activity are significantly
more motivated to learn science than students who have not. The graph below is an example
of this effect.
'I am interested in studying life of plants and animals and their environment.'
and field study experience. (N=20984, Ogura, 2005)
5
5.Strongly Agree ← 3.Neither → 1.Strongly Disagree
All differences except in Grade 5 between groups of
without and with are statistically significant
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
Grade5
Grade6
Grade7
Without Field Study Experience
Grade8
Grade9
Grade10
With Field Study Experience
10
Grade11
Grade12
National Average
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
3.4 Science learning by doing a project
Having students do projects in which they design investigations on specific questions and
make research reports or presentations during science lessons is not an easy activity for
schools because of the difficulty of making enough time and individualized teaching. However,
students who have experienced this type of activity are significantly more motivated to learn
science than students who have not. The graph below is an example of this effect. This type of
learning is one of activities emphasized in the ‘Kagaku-Gijyutsu Rika Daisuki Plan’,
especially in the ‘Super-Science High schools’.
'Ability to solve questions and test hypotheses will be enhanced by learning science.'
and science project during lesson. (N=20984, Ogura, 2005)
5.00
5.Strongly Agree ← 3.Neither → 1.Strongly Disagree
All differences between groups of without and
with are statistically significant
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
Grade5
Grade6
Grade7
Without Science Project during lesson
Grade8
Grade9
Grade10
Grade11
With Science Project during lesson
11
Grade12
National Average
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
3.5 Independent scientific research
Despite out-of-curriculum, Japanese youngsters practice well the independent scientific
research during summer holidays. About 70% of all students have experienced it at least once
by grade 9, and the average times of experience is about 2.5 in all students. Students who
have experienced this type of activity are significantly more motivated to learn science, even
more in students who have experienced 3 times or more, than students who have not, as
shown in an example of the graph below.
'I often read articles related to science in news papers, journals or books.'
and experience of independent scientific research. (N=20984, Ogura, 2005)
5.00
5.Strongly Agree ← 3.Neither → 1.Strongly Disagree
4.50
All differences between groups of without
and with are statistically significant
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
Grade5
Grade6
Grade7
Grade8
Grade9
Grade10
Without experience of independent scientific research
With experience of independent scientific research
3 times or more experiences of independent scientific research
National Average
12
Grade11
Grade12
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
3.6 Effect of activities in ‘Rika-daisuki schools’
As a national measure under the ‘Kagaku-Gijyutsu Rika Daisuki Plan’, 105 elementary and
62 lower-secondary schools in 19 areas had been designated as ‘Rika-daisuki schools’ for two
years since 2003. In designated schools, science and mathematics programs with focusing on
observations and experiments, enrichment of elective subjects and advanced learning had
been practiced. Designated schools were not special ones, and participated students were not
selected and essentially the same group of students in normal schools at the start of the
program. Hence the difference of outcome between these groups at the end of the two years’
program suggests the effect of activities.
Elementary school level
School averages of students’ affirmative awareness in science learning were compared
between ‘Rika-daisuki schools’ whose students had participated in their two years’ program
and normal schools randomly sampled.
Next graph shows one of results of 6th graders at elementary school level , in which horizontal
axis represents the infrequent level of ‘advanced science educational activities’ that is derived
from the four types of activities, i.e., science learning from science experts, science learning by
visiting science museums and research institutes, science learning by going out, and science
learning by doing a project, and vertical axis shows school average of students’ affirmative
responses to the question : ‘Ability of solve questions and test hypotheses will be enhanced by
learning science’.
As the regression line suggests, the more advanced science educational activities are frequent
(left side on the horizontal axis), the more responses of students of the school are affirmative.
Though there are variances among schools within ‘Rika-daisuki schools’ and within normal
schools in the level of advanced science educational activities and the level of school average
of students’ responses, ‘Rika-daisuki schools’ in general practiced more frequently of advanced
science educational activities than normal schools, and their students showed more
affirmative awareness in science learning.
13
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
Relationship between intensity of scientific school activities
and awareness of science at 6th grade level
GR OUP
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A
B
Group A:
National Sample
Schools (n=68)
Group B:
Rika-daisuki
Eleme ntary
Schools (n=100)
]
]
Y= 4.6 5 - 0 .08 * X
R2 = 0. 17
]
]
( Q2_15: 'Abili ty to
solve que stions
and te st hypotheses
w ill be enhanced
by lea rning science.)
]
2.00
5.00
7.50
10.00
12.50
15.00
Sc hool Avera ge of S cientific Activ ities
(L ess num ber m eans m ore freq uen t a ctiv ities)
14
Ba sed on the data
from Ogura (2005),
Ogura , JS T (2005)
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
Lower-secondary school level
Next graph shows the result of the same analysis for 8th graders at lower-secondary school
level. As in the elementary school level, the more advanced science educational activities are
frequent, the more responses of students of the school are affirmative. ‘Rika-daisuki schools’
in general practiced more frequently of advanced science educational activities than normal
schools, and their students showed more affirmative awareness in science learning. However,
compared to the case in elementary schools, advanced science educational activities are less
practiced, and the level of students’ affirmative awareness in science learning is lower as a
whole.
Relationship between intensity of scientific school activities
and awareness of science at 8th grade level
GR OUP
5.00
]
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5
1
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2
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3.00
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2.00
5.00
7.50
10.00
12.50
15.00
Sc hool Avera ge of S cientific Activ ities
(L ess num ber m eans m ore freq uen t a ctiv ities)
15
A
B
Group A:
National Sample
Schools (n=74)
Group B:
Rika-daisuki
Junior-high
Schools (n=55)
Y= 4.2 4 - 0. 07 * X
R2 = 0.1 2
( Q2_15: 'Ability to
solve questions
and test hypotheses
will be enhanced
by learning science.)
Based on the data
from Ogura (2005),
Ogura, JST (2005)
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
3.7 Effect of activity ‘Super Science High schools’
As a major national measure under the ‘Kagaku-Gijyutsu Rika Daisuki Plan’, 26
upper-secondary schools around the nation had been designated as ‘Super Science
High-schools (SSH)’ for three years since 2002. In designated schools, special programs
focusing on science, mathematics and technology, with emphasis on cooperative measures
with universities and research institutes had been practiced. Designated schools were
relatively high achievement schools, and participated students were selected by entrance
examinations and have had higher level of interest in and motivation to science learning than
the students in normal schools had from the start of the program.
School averages of students’ affirmative awareness in science learning were compared
between ‘SSH’ whose students had participated in their three years’ program and normal
schools of academic course randomly sampled (main stream of university candidates, about
half of all high-school students belong to this course). Next graph shows the result for 12th
graders. The axes represent the same meaning as in the previous graphs.
As the regression line suggests, the more advanced science educational activities are frequent,
the more responses of students of the school are affirmative. Though there are variances
among schools within ‘SSH’ in the level of advanced science educational activities and the
level of school average of students’ responses, ‘SSH’ in general practiced more frequently of
advanced science educational activities than normal schools, and their students showed more
affirmative awareness in science learning. However, this difference does not directly mean the
effect of activities in SSH, because their students had higher motivation to science learning at
the start of activities. Rather, this difference suggests the successful result of appropriate
advanced science educational activities practiced for highly motivated students.
16
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
Relationship between intensity of scientific school activities
and awareness of science at 12th grade level
GR OUP
5.00
]
S
S
S
SS
S
5
1
_
2
Q
r
o
f
e
g
a
r
e
v
A
l
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4.00
S
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]
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3.00
]
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2.00
5.00
7.50
10.00
12.50
Group A:
National Sample
Schools (n=79)
Group C:
Super-Science High
Schools (SSH) (n=26)
Y= 4.7 6 - 0. 12 * X
R2 = 0.4 4
( Q2_15: 'Ability to
solve questions
and test hypotheses
will be enhanced
by learning science.)
15.00
Sc hool Av era ge of S cientifi c Activ ities
(L ess num ber means more freq uent activi ties )
17
A
C
Based on the data
from Ogura (2005),
Ogura, JST (2005)
OECD/Japan Seminar, June 23-24, 2005, Tokyo
4. Suggestions
In order to improve the level of interest in S&T among Japanese at elementary and
secondary school level and to increase students coming to S&T fields to study at universities
and engage actively in S&T fields in future, following measures can be suggested:
Providing for more students and in more frequently
a. opportunities to learn science from science experts
b. opportunities to visit science museums and research institutes to learn science
c. opportunities to go for field and study science in nature with living things
d. opportunities to do science projects in science lessons
e. supports to develop their own scientific researches
As the level of interest in S&T fields improves,
f.
expanding the proportion of admission of new entrants in Engineering Science and
Natural Science
References
IEA (2005) TIMSS 2003 International Databese. (http://timss.bc.edu/)
MEXT (from 1985 to 2003) ‘Gakko-kihon Tyosa’ report. (in Japanese)
MEXT (2004) Annual Report on the Promotion of Science and Technology, FY 2003.
(http://www.mext.go.jp/english/news/2004/10/04111001.htm)
NIER (2005) Results of 2004 National curriculum achievement survey – elementary and
lower-secondary schools. (in Japanese ,
http://www.nier.go.jp/kaihatsu/katei_h15/index.htm)
OECD (2004) Learning for Tomorrow’s World: First Results from PISA 2003.
(http://www.oecd.org/)
Ogura (2005) Results of survey on students’ motivations toward science learning – national
situation. (in Japanese, http://www.nier.go.jp/ogura/tokutei.html)
Ogura & JST (2005) Results of survey on students’ motivations toward science learning –
Rika-daisuki & Super Science High schools. (in Japanese,
http://www.nier.go.jp/ogura/tokutei.html)
Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2005), Japan Statistical
Yearbook. (http://www.stat.go.jp/)
18