Recidivism Among Offenders
Released Pursuant to
Retroactive Application of the
2007 Crack Cocaine Amendment
2007 Crack Cocaine Amendment
S
Sentence
M
Modifications
difi i
• 25,500 motions for a reduced sentence pursuant to
the amendment decided by the courts have been
reported
t d to
t the
th Commission
C
i i (as
( off April
A il 14)
• 64.4% of those motions were granted
• Average sentence reduction 17% (26 months)
Source:
Crack Cocaine Recidivism Study
• Research question: Did recidivism increase among
crack cocaine offenders who served shorter sentences
because of retroactive application of the 2007
amendment?
• Staff undertook a study of two groups:
• crack cocaine offenders receiving a modified sentence
pursuant to the 2007 Crack Cocaine Amendment
• a comparison group of crack cocaine offenders that met the
eligibility criteria for the 2007 Crack Cocaine Amendment
but who were released prior to the effective date of that
amendment
Crack Cocaine Recidivism Study Design
• Studyy groups:
g p
1. Offenders whose sentence was reduced pursuant to
the 2007 Crack Cocaine Amendment and who were
released between July 1,
1 2008 and November 30,
30
2008 (n=848)
2. Offenders released between March 1, 2007 and
F b
February
29
29, 2008 after
ft serving
i their
th i original
i i l
sentence (n=484)
• All offenders followed for two years, or until
returned to prison
Crack Cocaine Recidivism Study Design
• Operational Measure of Recidivism:
– a re-conviction for a new offense,
– a re
re-arrest
arrest with no conviction disposition information
available, or
– a supervision
p
revocation (p
(probation or supervised
p
release).
• Data Sources: USSC Records
Records, FBI “RAP”
RAP sheets
Overall Recidivism Results
Comparison
Group
2007 Amendment
Group
%
%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
Recidivism
32.6%
30.4%
No Recidivism
67.4%
69.6%
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Type of Recidivism Event
Comparison
Gro p
Group
2007 Amendment
Gro p
Group
%
%
Total
100.0
100.0
Arrest
25.0%
23.2%
Revocation
7 6%
7.6%
7 2%
7.2%
67 4%
67.4%
69 6%
69.6%
No Recidivism
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Most Frequent Type of New Offense
Re-Arrested
Arrested Offenders
for Re
2007 Amendment Group
Comparison Group
%
%
Total
100.0
Total
100.0
Drug Possession
20.7
Drug Possession
21.8
DUI
12.4
Assault / Battery
13.7
Assault / Battery
10.7
Drug Distribution
i ib i
13.7
Drug Distribution
9.9
DUI
9.6
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Time to Recidivism
Comparison Group
50 0
50.0
2007 Amendment Group
Percent
45.0
40.0
35 0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20 0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
3 Months
6 Months
9 Months
12 Months
18 Months
24 Months
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Gender
Comparison
Group
2007 Amendment
Group
%
%
100.0
100.0
Male
90.9%
91.5%
Female
9.1%
8.5%
Total
Of the 1,332 cases, 95 were missing gender information.
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Recidivism Rate by Gender
Comparison Group
100.0 Percent
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40 0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
32.6
30.1
2007 Amendment Group
33 9
33.9
31.4
20.5
15.4
Total
Male
Female
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Race/Ethnicity
Comparison
p
Group
2007 Amendment
Group
%
%
100.0
100.0
White
9 5%
9.5%
7 7%
7.7%
Black
85.7%
87.4%
Hispanic
3.9%
4.5%
Other
0.8%
0.4%
Total
Of the 1,332 cases, 122 were missing race/ethnicity information.
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Recidivism Rate by Race and Ethnicity
Comparison Group
2007 Amendment Group
100 0 Percent
100.0
90.0
80.0
70 0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
32 6 30.6
32.6
30 6
28.3 28.1
33 0 30.3
33.0
30 3
Total
White
Black
30.0
36.8 36.4
20.0
10.0
0.0
Hispanic
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Criminal History Category
Comparison
Group
2007 Amendment
Group
%
%
Total
100.0
100.0
Category I
29.3%
27.2%
Category II
14.8%
16.7%
Category III
25.8%
25.6%
Category IV
15 0%
15.0%
13.7%
Category V
7.7%
8.5%
Category VI
7 5%
7.5%
8.3%
Of the 1,332 cases, five were missing criminal history information.
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Recidivism Rate
by Criminal History Category
Comparison Group
100 0
100.0
2007 Amendment Group
Percent
90.0
80.0
00
70.0
60.0
40.0
30.0
46.0
45.8
50.0
33.135.5
32.830.4
28.227.5
50.0
43.1
44.3
32.8
20.618.2
20.0
10.0
0.0
Total
Category I
Category II Category III Category IV Category V Category VI
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Weapon Use
Comparison
Group
2007 Amendment
Group
%
Total
100.0
100.0
NO Weapon SOC or
924c
78.5%
71.7%
Weapon SOC or 924c
21.5%
28.3%
Of the 1,332 cases, one was missing weapon information.
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Recidivism Rate by Weapon Use
Comparison Group
P
t
100.0 Percent
90.0
80.0
70 0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40 0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
32 6
32.6
30.4
Total
2007 Amendment Group
33 4
33.4
29.8
No 924c/Weapon SOC
29.8
32 1
32.1
924c/Weapon SOC
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Position of Sentence Relative to
the Guideline Range
Comparison
Group
2007 Amendment
Group
%
%
100.0%
100.0
Within Range
61 5%
61.5%
63 8%
63.8%
Above Range
0.2%
0.5%
Gov’t Sponsored
Below Range
32.5%
30.6%
Non-Gov’t Sponsored
Below Range
5 8%
5.8%
5 1%
5.1%
Total
Of the 1,332 cases, 22 were missing guideline range information.
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Recidivism Rate by Position of Sentence
Relative to the Guideline Range
Comparison Group
100.00 Percent
100
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
32.8 30.6
30 0
30.0
20.0
10.0
00
0.0
Total
30.3 28.8
Within Range
2007 Amendment Group
35.5 35.3
40.7
25 6
25.6
Gov't Sponsored
Below Range
Non-Gov't
Sponsored Below
Range
Source: U.S. Sentencing Commission FY 2011 Crack Recidivism Files; U.S. Sentencing Commission FY1992-2010 Datafiles, USSC FY 1992-2010.
Summary
• 2007 Crack Cocaine Amendment Group and
Comparison Group are very similar with respect to
personal, offense, and offender characteristics
• There was no statisticallyy significant
g
difference in
recidivism rates between those of offenders whose
sentences were reduced pursuant to the 2007 Crack
Cocaine Amendment and the Comparison Group