Examination of Impacts That Desert Power Generation Has on
EU/MENA Countries
By
Moustafa Ahmed El-Sayed Shaaban
A Thesis Submitted to
Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University
and
Faculty of Engineering at Kassel University
in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of
Master of Science
In
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Faculty of Engineering
Cairo University
Giza, Egypt
Kassel University
Kassel, Germany
2011
Examination of Impacts That Desert Power Generation Has on
EU/MENA Countries
By
Moustafa Ahmed El-Sayed Shaaban
A Thesis Submitted to
Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University
and
Faculty of Engineering at Kassel University
in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of
Master of Science
In
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Under Supervision of
Prof. Dr. A. Khalil
Mechanical Power
Department
Faculty of
Engineering
Cairo University
Mr. Stefan Perras
Senior Strategy Analyst
Dii GmbH
Munich
Germany
Prof. Dr. J. Schmid
Mechanical Power
Department
Faculty of
Engineering
Kassel University
Faculty of Engineering
Cairo University
Giza, Egypt
Kassel University
Kassel, Germany
2011
Examination of Impacts That Desert Power Generation Has on
EU/MENA Countries
By
Moustafa Ahmed El-Sayed Shaaban
A Thesis Submitted to
Faculty of Engineering at Cairo University
and
Faculty of Engineering at Kassel University
in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of
Master of Science
In
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Approved by the
Examining Committee
Prof. Dr. A. Khalil
Prof. Dr. J. Schmid
Dr. H. El-Nokrashy
Thesis Advisor
Thesis Advisor
Member
Faculty of Engineering
Cairo University
Giza, Egypt
Kassel University
Kassel, Germany
2011
Contents
Page
List of Tables ..................................................................................................................................... VII
List of Figures......................................................................................................................................IX
Nomenclature ......................................................................................................................................XI
Acknowledgements............................................................................................................................ XV
Declaration for the Master’s Thesis................................................................................................. XVI
Abstract .......................................................................................................................................... XVII
1
2
Chapter One: Introduction.......................................................................................................... 20
1.1
Desertec concept................................................................................................................... 20
1.2
Goal of this thesis ................................................................................................................. 21
1.3
Approach.............................................................................................................................. 22
Chapter Two: Desert Power Generation Scenarios.................................................................... 23
2.1
2.1.1
Morocco......................................................................................................................... 33
2.1.2
Algeria ........................................................................................................................... 36
2.1.3
Tunisia........................................................................................................................... 40
2.1.4
Libya.............................................................................................................................. 44
2.1.5
Egypt ............................................................................................................................. 48
2.1.6
Other MENA countries.................................................................................................. 52
2.2
3
All MENA countries.............................................................................................................. 30
Exports to Europe ................................................................................................................. 55
Chapter Three: Identifying Impact Parameters......................................................................... 59
3.1
Economical ........................................................................................................................... 59
3.1.1
3.2
GDP............................................................................................................................... 60
Social .................................................................................................................................... 63
3.2.1
Job generation .............................................................................................................. 63
3.2.2
Know-how transfer....................................................................................................... 63
3.2.3
Grid infrastructure....................................................................................................... 63
3.2.4
General infrastructure ................................................................................................. 65
3.3
Environmental...................................................................................................................... 66
3.3.1
CO2 emission................................................................................................................. 66
IV
3.4
Political................................................................................................................................. 67
3.4.1
4
Chapter Four: Impact Assessment Methodology ....................................................................... 69
4.1
Economical ........................................................................................................................... 69
4.1.1
4.2
Social .................................................................................................................................... 71
Job generation .............................................................................................................. 71
4.2.2
Know-how transfer....................................................................................................... 72
4.2.3
Grid infrastructure....................................................................................................... 73
4.2.4
General infrastructure ................................................................................................. 73
Environmental...................................................................................................................... 75
4.3.1
4.4
Conflicts ........................................................................................................................ 75
Chapter Five: Results and Discussion ......................................................................................... 76
5.1
Economical ........................................................................................................................... 76
5.1.1
5.2
GDP............................................................................................................................... 76
Social .................................................................................................................................... 78
5.2.1
Job generation .............................................................................................................. 78
5.2.2
Know-how transfer....................................................................................................... 81
5.2.3
Grid infrastructure....................................................................................................... 84
5.2.4
General infrastructure ................................................................................................. 86
5.3
Environmental...................................................................................................................... 89
5.3.1
5.4
CO2 emission................................................................................................................. 89
Political................................................................................................................................. 91
5.4.1
7
CO2 emission................................................................................................................. 75
Political................................................................................................................................. 75
4.4.1
6
GDP............................................................................................................................... 69
4.2.1
4.3
5
Conflicts ........................................................................................................................ 67
Conflicts ........................................................................................................................ 91
Chapter Six: Conclusion and Recommendations........................................................................ 95
6.1
Conclusion on the present work .......................................................................................... 95
6.2
Recommendations for future work...................................................................................... 96
Chapter Seven: References.......................................................................................................... 97
Annex A: GDP................................................................................................................................... 101
A-1: GDP expenditure approach components definition................................................................... 101
V
A-2: Impact on GDP assessments model.......................................................................................... 102
A-3: GDP values in MENA countries and Europe............................................................................ 104
A-4: Impact on GDP in details......................................................................................................... 105
Annex B: Social parameters.............................................................................................................. 108
B-1 Job generation per technology................................................................................................... 108
B-2 Know-how transfer details ........................................................................................................ 110
B-3: Grid infrastructures details ....................................................................................................... 121
B-4 General infrastructure details .................................................................................................... 131
Annex C: CO2 emission reduction calculation .................................................................................. 136
VI
List of Tables
Table 2-1: All MENA countries, the most likely scenario ....................................................................... 30
Table 2-2: All MENA countries, the best scenario.................................................................................. 31
Table 2-3: All MENA countries, the conservative scenario..................................................................... 31
Table 2-4: Morocco, the most likely scenario......................................................................................... 33
Table 2-5: Morocco, the best scenario................................................................................................... 34
Table 2-6: Morocco, the conservative scenario...................................................................................... 34
Table 2-7: Algeria, the most likely scenario ........................................................................................... 37
Table 2-8: Algeria, the best scenario ..................................................................................................... 37
Table 2-9: Algeria, the conservative scenario ........................................................................................ 38
Table 2-10: Tunisia, the most likely scenario ......................................................................................... 41
Table 2-11: Tunisia, the best scenario ................................................................................................... 41
Table 2-12: Tunisia, the conservative scenario ...................................................................................... 42
Table 2-13: Libya, the most likely scenario............................................................................................ 45
Table 2-14: Libya, the best scenario ...................................................................................................... 45
Table 2-15: Libya, the conservative scenario ......................................................................................... 46
Table 2-16: Egypt, the most likely scenario............................................................................................ 49
Table 2-17: Egypt, the best scenario ...................................................................................................... 49
Table 2-18: Egypt, the conservative scenario......................................................................................... 50
Table 2-19: Other MENA countries, the most likely scenario ................................................................. 52
Table 2-20: Other MENA countries, the best scenario ........................................................................... 53
Table 2-21: Other MENA countries, the conservative scenario .............................................................. 53
Table 2-22: Assumed technical parameters of bipolar electricity lines ................................................... 55
Table 2-23: Exports to Europe, the most likely scenario......................................................................... 55
Table 2-24: Exports to Europe, the best scenario................................................................................... 56
Table 2-25: Exports to Europe, the conservative scenario...................................................................... 56
Table 2-26: Share of electricity imports from MENA desert in European electricity consumption........... 58
Table 4-1: Specific investment, operation and maintenance cost ............................................................ 70
Table 4-2: Domestic share in investment, operation and maintenance cost ............................................ 70
Table 4-3: Domestic and import specific investment, operation and maintenance cost ........................... 71
Table 4-4: Jobs per MW installed capacity ............................................................................................ 71
Table 4-5: Number of programs per 1000 MW....................................................................................... 72
Table 4-6: Number of outputs for general infrastructure per 1000 MW.................................................. 74
Table 4-7: Output description................................................................................................................ 74
Table 4-8: CO2 emission from different source of energy in kg/MWh ..................................................... 75
Table 5-1: Impact of desert power generation on GDP in EUMENA countries....................................... 76
Table 5-2: Job generation from the three scenarios ............................................................................... 79
Table 5-3: Impact on know-how transfer ............................................................................................... 82
Table 5-4: General infrastructure requirement for Wind, CSP and PV plants ........................................ 86
Table 5-5: Impact on general infrastructure .......................................................................................... 87
VII
Table 5-6: CO2 emission reduction ........................................................................................................ 89
Table 5-7: Perspectives EU risks and mitigation.................................................................................... 92
Table 5-8: Current MENA region conflicts and solution ........................................................................ 93
VIII
List of Figures
Figure 1-1: Power generation from renewables in MENA...................................................................... 20
Figure 1-2: Study scope......................................................................................................................... 21
Figure 1-3: The Study Flowchart........................................................................................................... 22
Figure 2-1: Market expansion phases of a renewable energy technology ............................................... 23
Figure 2-2: Parameters of renewable energy market development ......................................................... 24
Figure 2-3: Growth rate of CSP production capacities during the three phases of market introduction, in
relative and absolute terms of annual solar electricity generation, calculated for 2500 kWh/m²/y
irradiance. ............................................................................................................................................ 25
Figure 2-4: Growth rates of PV and wind energy in Germany................................................................ 26
Figure 2-5: Electricity demand in MENA focus countries ...................................................................... 27
Figure 2-6: Electricity demand in total MENA and Europe.................................................................... 27
Figure 2-7: Installed capacity, All MENA countries, the most likely, the best and the conservative
scenarios............................................................................................................................................... 32
Figure 2-8: Generated electricity, All MENA countries, the most likely, the best and the conservative
scenarios............................................................................................................................................... 32
Figure 2-9: Installed capacity, Morocco, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios .......... 35
Figure 2-10: Generated electricity, Morocco, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios ... 35
Figure 2-11: Installed capacity, Algeria, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios .......... 39
Figure 2-12: Generated electricity, Algeria, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios ..... 39
Figure 2-13: Installed capacity, Tunisia, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios .......... 43
Figure 2-14: Generated electricity, Tunisia, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios ..... 43
Figure 2-15: Installed capacity, Libya, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios ............. 47
Figure 2-16: Generated electricity, Libya, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios ........ 47
Figure 2-17: Installed capacity, Egypt, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios ............. 51
Figure 2-18: Generated electricity, Egypt, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenario ......... 51
Figure 2-19: Installed capacity, other MENA countries, the most likely, the best and the conservative
scenarios............................................................................................................................................... 54
Figure 2-20: Generated electricity, other MENA countries, the most likely, the best and the conservative
scenarios............................................................................................................................................... 54
Figure 2-21: Power export to EU, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios..................... 57
Figure 2-22: Electricity export to EU, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios............... 57
Figure 2-23: Share of electricity imports from MENA desert in European electricity consumption in
absolute value and percentage............................................................................................................... 58
Figure 3-1: Impacts parameters ............................................................................................................ 59
Figure 3-2: Economic development in EU countries .............................................................................. 61
Figure 3-3: Economic development in MENA focus countries................................................................ 62
Figure 3-4: Economic development in MENA countries......................................................................... 62
Figure 5-1: Impact of desert power generation on GDP in EUMENA countries..................................... 77
Figure 5-2: Job generation from the three scenarios.............................................................................. 80
IX
Figure 5-3: Impact on know-how transfer.............................................................................................. 83
Figure 5-4: Grid infrastructure investments cost in MENA focus countries, other MENA countries and
total MENA (2012-2050) ....................................................................................................................... 85
Figure 5-5: Impact on general infrastructure......................................................................................... 88
Figure 5-6: CO2 emission reduction in MENA focus countries .............................................................. 90
Figure 5-7: CO2 emission reduction in different regions ........................................................................ 90
X
Nomenclature
Definitions:
The ratio of the net electricity generated, for the time considered, to the energy
Capacity factor that could have been generated at continuous full-power operation during the
same period, it is in percent.
It is a form of energy resulting from the presence and flow of electric charges,
Electricity
its unit is Watt.hour (Wh).
Energy
The ability to perform work, SI unit is Joule.
It is the average amount of work done or energy converted per unit of time, SI
Power
unit is Watt (W) or Joule/sec
Units:
Feddan
GW
4200 square meter
Giga Watt= 109 Watt
GWh/y
Giga tons of carbon/year= 109 tons of carbon per year=billion tons of carbon
per year
Giga Watt hour per year= 109 Watt.hour per year
Hectare
10,000 square meter
GTC/a
kW
kWh/ m²/y
m2
Kilo Watt= 103 Watt
Kilo Watt hour per square meter/year= 103 Watt.hour per square meter per
year
Square meter
m/s
Mt/y
Meter per second
Mega ton per year=106 ton per year=million ton per year
MVA
Mega Volt Ampere = 106 Volt ampere
MW
ppm
TWh/y(TWh/a)
Mega Watt= 106 Watt
Parts per million
Tera Watt hour per year= 1012 Watt.hour per year
USD
Abbreviations:
United States dollar
ADEME
Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie in France
ADEREE
Agency for Development of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
(formerly CDER) in Morocco
ANME
National Agency for Energy Conservation in Tunisia
XI
AR
AUPTDE
Autoregression
Arab Union of Producers, Transporters and Distributors of Electricity in
Jordan
Bio
Billion
BMZ
Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung,
(The Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development) in
Germany
CAGR
Cumulative annual growth rate
CDER
Center for Development of Renewable Energy in Morocco
CEA
Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique in France
CHP
Combined heat and power
CIEMAT
CNRST
CO2
CSERS
CSP
DAAD
DANIDA
Dii
Centro de Investigacion Energetica Medioambiental y Tecnologica in Spain
Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique in Morocco
Carbon dioxide
Center for Solar Energy Research and Studies in Libya
Concentrated Solar Power
Deutsche Akademische Austauschdienst,
German Academic Exchange Service
Danish International Development Agency
Desertec Industrial Initiative in Germany
DLR
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (German Aerospace Center) in
Germany
DNI
Direct normal irradiance
ECREINetwork European clusters and regions for eco-innovation and eco-investments network
EIB
European Investment Bank
EIT
European Institute of Innovation and Technology
EMPower
Enable and motivate sustainable Power markets
XII
ENEA
ENSEM
ENTSO-E
ETAP
EU
Ente per le Nuove tecnologie, l’Energia e l’Ambiente in Italy
Ecole Nationale Supérieure d’Electricité et de Mécanique in Morocco
European network of transmission system operators for electricity
Eco-Technologies Action Plan
European Union
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
GHG
Green House Gases
HVAC
High Voltage Alternate Current
HVDC
High Voltage Direct Current
IEA
International Energy Agency
INES
Institut National pour l’Energie Solaire in France
IPCC
Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change in Switzerland
ISCC
Integrated Solar Combined Cycle
KIC
Knowledge and Innovation Community
KSA
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
MASEN
ME
Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy
Middle East
MED-EMIP
Euro-Mediterranean Energy Market Integration Project
MEDREC
The Mediterranean Renewable Energy Centre in Tunisia
MEDRING
Mediterranean Electrical Ring
MENA
Mio
MIRA
Middle East North Africa
Million
Mediterranean Innovation and Research Coordination Action
XIII
MSP
NA
The Mediterranean Solar Plan
North Africa
NEAL
New Energy Algeria
NERC
The National Energy Research Center in Syria
NREA
New and Renewable Energy Authority in Egypt
NREL
National Renewable Energy Laboratory in USA
OL
PROSOL
Tunisia
PV
RCREEE
RE
REAOL
REMENA
SC
Overhead lines
Solar Promotion in Tunisia
Photovoltaic
Regional Center for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in Egypt
Renewable energy
The Renewable Energy Authority of Libya
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency for the Middle East and North
Africa region
Submarine cables
SME
Small and medium enterprises
SNA
System of National Accounts
SVAR
The Structural Vector Autoregressive
UAE
United Arab Emirates
UC
Underground cables
UDES
UNFCCC
COP-16
USTO
VAR
Unité de Développement des Equipements Solaires in Algeria
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the sixteenth
Conference of the Parties in Cancún, Mexico
Université des Sciences et de la Technologie d'Oran in Algeria
Vector autoregression
XIV
Acknowledgements
In the name of “ALLAH”, great thanks to the one above all of us, the omnipresent God
“ALLAH”, for answering my prayers for giving me the strength and patience to continue this
study. To him I dedicate this thesis, and all praise, prayer and peace upon the Messenger of
ALLAH Prophet Muhammad, “peace be upon him”. This dissertation was implemented with the
guidance and the help of several individuals who in one way or another contributed and extended
their valuable assistance in the preparation and completion of this study. First and foremost, my
utmost gratitude to Mr. Stefan Perras, Senior Strategy Analyst in the Desertec Industrial
Initiative (Dii) and my thesis advisor, whose sincerity and encouragement I will never forget.
Mr. Perras has been my inspiration as I hurdle all the obstacles in the completion of this research
work. Throughout my thesis-writing period, he provided me encouragement, sound advice, good
teaching, and lots of good ideas. I would have been lost without him. Special thanks to all
members in the Desertec Industrial Initiative (Dii). It is difficult to overstate my gratitude to my
supervisors, Prof. Dr. Adel Khalil, faculty of Engineering at Cairo University, and Prof. Dr.
Juergen Schmid, faculty of Engineering at Kassel University. Thanks for their enthusiasm,
inspiration, great efforts to explain things clearly and simply and for their patience and steadfast
encouragement to complete this study. They had kind concern and consideration regarding my
work. I would like to thank also the academic staff of the REMENA program who gave me
valuable information about renewable energy and energy efficiency and assisted me in this
study; the administration staff of the REMENA program who played an important role in the
management of this program and solving our troubleshooting during the study; my colleagues in
this program who assisted me in REMENA courses studying and understanding and for
providing a stimulating and fun environment in which to learn and grow; the German Academic
Exchange Service (DAAD) and The Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and
Development (BMZ) who are responsible to finance this program; all RCREEE members who
provided me with valuable information during my internship in November 2010; all who taught
me during my whole life. I wish to thank my parents. They bore me, raised me, supported me,
taught me, and loved me. Last but not least, I wish to thank my entire extended family for
providing a loving environment for me, especially, my wife and my first newly born daughter
“Hager”.
XV
Declaration for the Master’s Thesis
XVI
Abstract
Chapter one introduces the Desertec concept, the goal and scope of the thesis and the approach
of the study. There is a great potential for solar and wind energy in the Middle East and North
African (MENA) region. The long-term goal of the Desertec concept is to provide a substantial
part of the energy needs of the MENA countries as well as to meet about 15% of Europe’s
electricity demand by 2050 by renewable energy generated in the MENA region. The aim of this
thesis is to study the impact of power generated from the desert on European and MENA
countries. The study will focus on five MENA countries; Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and
Egypt. . The study will include 44 countries (26 Europe, 13 Middle East, 5 North Africa). In the
second chapter, three scenarios are designed for desert power generation from Morocco, Algeria,
Tunisia, Libya and Egypt specifically and remaining MENA countries as a whole in the years
2012, 2020 and 2050. A certain percentage is estimated to be exported to Europe which
corresponds to about 15% of European electricity demands by 2050. The three scenarios are the
most likely, the best and the conservative scenario. This chapter describes how these scenarios
are designed. The most likely is based on data from the national strategies in each country in
renewable energy. The unavailable data will be taken from DLR’s studies, “MED-CSP (2005)”
and “TRANS-CSP (2006)”. The other two scenarios are deviations from the most likely
scenario. The best scenario is 25% higher than the most likely scenario. The conservative
scenario is based on 10% lower renewable market growth from the most likely. The third chapter
identifies the impact parameters. These parameters are economical (GDP), social (job generation,
know-how transfer, grid infrastructure, and general infrastructure), environmental (CO2
emission) and political (conflicts). This chapter gives a brief description of these parameters and
shows their importance in relation to the desert power generation in the MENA region and
export to Europe. Chapter four describes the method that correlates the installed capacity and
electricity generated in MENA countries and export to Europe with the impact parameters
throughout the years 2012, 2020 and 2050. These methods differ from one parameter to another.
In case of GDP, it is assessed from the investments and operation costs in USD/MW of the
installed power as these costs represent an addition to the GDP. The domestic costs will be added
to MENA countries GDP while the import costs will be added to the European GDP. The job
generation is assessed according to the specific gross (direct + indirect) employment in
jobs/MW. The know-how transfer and general infrastructures are assessed by assuming a target
of outputs as a result of installation of 1000 MW from renewable. The grid infrastructure is
assessed by making some assumptions regarding the required High Voltage Alternating Current
(HVAC) lines and substations per 500 MW installed capacity. Then, interpreting these
requirements in terms of specific investments cost for grid upgrading (USD/MW). The CO2
emission is measured according to the specific emission in kg/MWh of generated electricity
generated by different resources like CSP, PV, wind, coal, oil and natural gas. The reduction of
these emissions is deduced by comparing the installation of renewable power plants with
XVII
conventional ones with fossil fuel mix. The political conflicts are not directly correlated to the
installed capacity from renewables, however, it is assessed by suggesting solutions for some
conflicts that are already present and risks from critics side as a result of export of electricity
from the MENA region to Europe. Chapter five presents the results of applying these
methodologies. The addition to the GDP for total MENA countries in 2050 can be about 1360
billion USD in the most likely scenario. For Europe, the addition can be about 330 billion USD
in 2050. The number of jobs that can be generated in total MENA countries in 2050 can be about
1.6 million jobs in the most likely scenario. For Europe, the number of jobs that can be generated
in 2050 can be about 350,000 jobs. It shows also that the number of jobs will grow in the MENA
region from 0.5 to 1.6 million jobs from 2020 to 2050. It shows also that Egypt has the highest
impact on know-how transfer where the number of programs will exceed 1000 programs by 2050
in all scenarios. Total MENA can achieve about 8,000 programs by 2050. This total number of
programs is distributed between training, undergraduate, postgraduate programs and internships.
From 2021 to 2050, Egypt will have the highest grid investments cost of about 11 billion USD
followed by Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, and Libya with the lowest grid investments. The other
MENA countries and total MENA will have grid investments cost in the period between 2021
and 2050 of about 30 billion USD and 50 billion USD respectively. In total MENA countries, the
total number of general infrastructure outputs which includes 10 sectors (roads, water supply,
housing camps, fossil fuel, grid availability, industrial area, agricultural area, educational center,
housing city, market building) increases from about 150 in 2012 to reach about 400 in 2020 then
about 5500 in 2050. They are equally distributed among the sectors but interpreted differently.
The other MENA countries can reduce about 800 million tons of CO2 in 2050. All MENA
countries together can achieve a reduction of about 1500 million tons in 2050. This amount
includes the reduction to Europe due to export of electricity which is about 270 million tons.
Chapter six draws a conclusion on the results. The study shows that the impact on all parameters
discussed behaves more positively on both MENA and European countries. The installation of
renewable power plants in the desert will increase the economy. In addition, it will improve the
social parameters. Moreover, this project will play an important role in reducing CO2 emissions
in MENA countries. Politically, it will play a role in solving many conflicts in MENA countries
and make more stability and security in the region. Although the export portion to Europe is only
small amount but the project as a whole will have a great positive effect on the MENA region as
well as on Europe.
XVIII
“I would put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope
we do not have to wait till oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
(Thomas Alva Edison, 1847-1931)
XIX
1 Chapter One: Introduction
1.1Desertec concept
There is a great potential for solar and wind energy in the Middle East and North African
(MENA) region. The huge deserts there offer enormous solar resources. The area receives in six
hours as much energy from the sun as mankind consumes in one year (Dr. Gerhard Knies).
Furthermore, in some of the MENA countries there are areas that belong to the world’s top sites
in terms of wind potential. These significant resources would allow the local MENA countries to
generate renewable energy and by this supply their growing energy demands. Additionally, they
could export part of the generated renewable power to Europe through interconnected power
lines. The deserts in MENA region would provide a secure and sufficient energy for the future
world population from clean and renewable sources. Electricity can be generated from these
sources, and existing technologies would be able to deliver this energy to the different energy
markets. The long-term goal of the Desertec concept is to provide a substantial part of the energy
needs of the MENA countries as well as to meet about 15% of Europe’s electricity demand by
2050 by renewable energy generated in the MENA region.
Figure 1-1: Power generation from renewables in MENA
Source: (1)
20
1.2 Goal of this thesis
The aim of this thesis is to study the impact of power generated from the desert on European and
MENA countries. The study will focus on five MENA countries; Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia,
Libya and Egypt. The other MENA countries will be studied as a whole. European countries will
be studied also as a whole and the study will assess the impact of exporting 18% of power
generated from desert in MENA from CSP, PV and wind to Europe by 2012. The study will
include 44 countries (26 EU, 13 ME, 5 NA) see below:
Figure 1-2: Study scope
Source: (2)
NA countries (MENA focus): Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt
ME countries (Other MENA): Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA),
Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen
EU countries (Dii relevant): Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia,
Cyprus, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Macedonia, Malta,
Moldova, Montenegro, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Slovak Republic,
Slovenia, Spain and Switzerland
21
1.3Approach
There is a strong relationship between the economical, social, political and environmental
development in any countries and its energy supply. The study will analyze the impact of desert
power generation throughout these categories. The flow chart below describes
describes how the study will
be accomplished.
Identify
desert
power
generation
scenarios
in
2012,2020
,2050
Define the
impact
parameters
Develop a
methodology
to assess
impact of
desert power
generation on
defined
parameters
Apply
methodology
on each
scenario
Figure 1-3: The Study Flowchart
22
Consolidate
and evaluate
results
2 Chapter Two: Desert Power Generation Scenarios
In this chapter, three scenarios are designed for desert power generation from Morocco, Algeria
Algeria,
Tunisia, Libya and Egypt specifically and remaining MENA countries as a whole in the years
2012, 2020 and 2050. From the renewable power generated in MENA countries a certain
percentage is estimated to be exported to Europe
Europ which corresponds to about 15% of European
electricity demands or more by 2050. The study concentrates here on using wind energy and
solar energy from both CSP and PV technology for power production.
The German Aerospace Center (DLR) conducted several studies
udies concerning renewable energy in
the MENA region like the MED-CSP,
MED
Trans-CSP, Aqua-CSP
CSP and EnerMENA studies. The
MED-CSP
CSP study focuses on power generation mix forecast in the MENA region including the
introduction of renewable energy sources till 2050. The scenario for electricity supply is based
on electricity demand modeling scenario which is a function of population, economy growth and
efficiency gains.
According to the MED-CSP
CSP scenario, market expansion of renewable energy technology is
limited by technical, economical, social and environmental barriers. It usually goes through four
phases as shown in figure 2-1::
Phase 1
High technology cost and expansion requires preferential investment
Phase 2
Prices become competitive but production capacities are still limited
Phase 3
Production catches up and the market is defined by demand
Phase 4
As demand grows the availability of resources may become limiting
Figure 2-1:: Market expansion phases of a renewable energy technology
Source: (3 p. 111)
23
A number of parameters (figure 2-2) are set up to predict the market development of renewable
energy. This includes:
Figure 2-2: Parameters of renewable energy market development
Source: (3 p. 113)
Regarding the growth rates of renewable electricity generation technologies, Germany, as an
example, showed that 20-40% is a reasonable long-term growth rate for technologies that have
achieved a level of 10 GW or higher of installed capacity and growth rates of around 30 % per
year can usually be maintained only for a few years up to a maximum of one decade.
There are other constraints that affect market growth rate e.g. overall economic situation,
availability of suitable sites, and technology acceptance.
24
Source: (3 p. 117)
Figure 2-3: Growth rate of CSP production capacities during the three phases of market introduction, in
relative and absolute terms of annual solar electricity generation, calculated for 2500 kWh/m²/y
irradiance.
Figure 2-3 shows the annual growth rates and the absolute new capacity installed per year for
CSP in the MED-CSP scenario. In Phase 1, it is easy to double CSP capacity at a low level but
the availability of finance is the limiting factor. After 2015 within Phase 2 the financing barriers
are overcome, but the technology growth rates now become the limiting factor, with total
installed power capacities over 10 GW. This phase continues with a growth rate of roughly 30 %
per year over a maximum of 10 years. Then, after 2025 within Phase 3, the growth rates are
subsequently reduced as the demand for CSP electricity becomes the limiting factor, while the
absolute capacity installed every year is maintained at a high level. In the case of CSP in MENA,
Phase 4 is never achieved, because the solar energy resource is so vast that it never becomes the
limiting factor for this region of the world. This figure shows how the trend of growth rates has
been used as one of the limiting barriers for CSP market development.
In 2000, wind capacity in Germany amounted to about 6 GW, but in the year 2003 Germany was
the greatest wind energy producer worldwide, with a total installed wind power capacity of 14.6
GW and by the end of 2009 reached about 26 GW. A similar development at a lower level was
experienced by photovoltaic systems with 57 MW installed in 2000, 435 MW in 2003 and about
10 GW by the end of 2009. The German Feed-In Law for Renewable Energies and the
Renewable Energy Act are the main pillars of this explosive development, which was only
possible under the favorable conditions granted by those instruments. Like in the beginning of
any market deployment, capacity levels were usually low, and the installed capacity was easily
doubled from one year to the other, with growth rates often exceeding 100 % per year. Between
2000 and 2009, both wind and PV capacities have increased in Germany by a factor of over 4
and 20 times respectively. Figure 2-4 shows how the technology growth rate and the regulatory
framework affected the market of wind and PV in Germany. This could be a learned lesson for
25
MENA countries to forecast their renewable energy market development and how it could be
affected by the growth rate of the technology and the regulatory framework.
250
Growth rate of wind and PV energy in Germany
%/y
200
150
100
50
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Years
Wind energy
Photovotaic energy
Figure 2-4: Growth rates of PV and wind energy in Germany
Source: (4), (5 p. 11)
Regarding the time pattern of electricity demand as another barrier for market expansion, there is
a demand for electricity (GWh/y), peak power (GW of installed capacity including reserves), and
a certain time structure. This time structure defines how much power capacity is required at
what time, defined by the load curve in terms of GW that varies for every hour of the year.
Annual electricity generation and peak power capacity are related according to the equation:
Generated Electricity (GWh/y) = Peak Power Capacity (GW) ⋅ Capacity Factor ⋅ 8760 h/y
This shows that the higher the capacity factor of a power plant, the more contribution to
electricity generated, and the better is its economic performance, especially, if the investment
cost is high. There is usually an additional 25% of secured capacity, higher than the national
peak load, acting as a reserve capacity. Although PV and wind power are resource dependent ,
the other renewable energy technologies can be applied in a demand driven manner, providing
peak load, intermediate load and base load capacity on demand and serving as backup capacity
for the fluctuating resources(3 pp. 111-118). Moreover, new storage technology is now emerging
for wind and PV (e.g. compressed air storage, battery storage)
Figures 2-5 and 2-6 below show the electricity demand in MENA and European countries. To
meet this growth in electricity demand there should be sufficient supply. This supply will most
probably be from renewable sources due to the depletion of fossil fuels. Figure 2-5 shows that
Egypt has the highest electricity consumption where it will reach more than 600 TWh/a in 2050.
Algeria and Morocco show equal electricity consumption. Tunisia and Libya shows also
26
comparable electricity consumption. Figure 2-6 shows that Europe’s electricity demand will
decrease after 2020. It will be lower than the electricity demand of the MENA region in 2050.
700
Electricity consumption in
MENA focus countries
600
TWh/a
500
400
300
200
100
0
Years
Morocco
2012
2020
2050
30.7
57.2
235.1
Algeria
46.7
80.6
249.0
Tunisia
15.9
24.3
65.9
Libya
23.6
27.2
43.9
Egypt
111.5
171.5
631.3
Figure 2-5: Electricity demand in MENA focus countries
Source: (6)
3500
3000
Electricity consumption in MENA and Europe
TWh/a
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Years
Other MENA
2012
2020
2050
613.0
778.8
1679.8
Total MENA
841.5
1139.5
2904.9
Europe
2636.8
2785.48
2555.13
Figure 2-6: Electricity demand in total MENA and Europe
Source: (6), (7)1
1
Europe’s electricity consumption does not include Albania and Moldova from the relevant Dii Europe countries
27
In this study, the first scenario is the most likely; it is based on data from the national strategies
in each country in renewable energy. The unavailable data will be taken from DLR’s studies,
“MED-CSP (2005)” and “TRANS-CSP (2006)”. This will be the reference scenario since most
of the limiting parameters are assessed in both MED-CSP and TRANS-CSP studies. This
scenario takes into account all policy measures to support renewable energy either under way or
planned around the world. It also assumes that the targets set by many countries for renewables
are successfully implemented. Moreover, it assumes increased investor confidence in the sector
established by a successful outcome from the current round of climate change negotiations,
which were set to culminate at UNFCCC COP-16 in Cancún, Mexico, in December 2010.
The other two scenarios are deviations from the most likely scenario. One with positive deviation
and the other is with negative deviation. The focus of this study is not to calculate the deviation
but rather to evaluate the respective impacts on several parameters. The study therefore focuses
here on how the impact parameters are affected by one scenario and the reasonable change from
this scenario at a higher or lower level. The positive deviation is in absolute terms higher than the
negative deviation due to the worldwide trends towards renewable energy and the fear from
global warming and climate change consequences resulted from elevated CO2 emissions from
fossil fuels burning.
So, the second scenario is the best scenario; it is 25% above the most likely scenario. It assumes
that the renewable market expansion will be 25% higher. This is due to the creation of a good
market environment for renewable energy technologies supported by a well defined frame
condition for energy policy and regulation; more availability of finance; higher technology
growth rates; increased energy demand accompanied by a rise in fossil fuel prices and
consequently rising CO2 certificate trading price. The full load hours will remain the same as in
the most likely. This is the most ambitious scenario. It examines how much this industry could
grow in a best case. The assumption here is that all policy options in favor of renewable energy,
along the lines of the industry’s recommendations, have been selected, along with the political
will to carry them out. It assumes also a rapid and coordinated increase of new grid capacity
especially “High Voltage Direct Current” (HVDC) to harvest desert energy and make it available
and export it to industrial countries and emerging economies with high and growing electricity
demand. This can be observed through the formation of foundations and institutions that are
mainly concerned with renewable energy projects in MENA countries like the DESERTEC
Foundation and the Desertec Industrial Initiative (Dii) in Germany, Regional Center for
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (RCREEE) in Egypt, in addition to new governmental
authorities that are specified for renewable energy like the New and Renewable Energy
Authority (NREA) in Egypt, Agency for Development of Renewable Energy and Energy
Efficiency (ADEREE) 2 and Moroccan Agency for Solar Energy (MASEN) in Morocco, New
Energy Algeria (NEAL) in Algeria, National Agency for Energy Conservation (ANME) and The
Mediterranean Renewable Energy Centre (MEDREC) launched by the Italian government in
2
Former: Center for Development of Renewable Energy (CDER)
28
Tunisia. There are also national targets and strategies for renewable energy like the Tunisian
Solar Plan; Egypt’s target of 20% of installed capacity is from renewable energy by 2020, and
Morocco’s target of installing 2000 MW from wind and 2000 MW from CSP by 2020. This will
be explained in more details for individual countries later.
The third scenario is the conservative scenario; it is based on 10% lower renewable market
growth from the most likely. A high risk perception by potential investors is usually associated
with new technologies, further elevating their cost. It assumes that the investors prefer low cost
equipment with a previous experience by other countries than high cost ones with no previous
experience e.g. 600 kW instead of 5 MW wind turbines or building nuclear power stations
instead of CSP plants. It assumes also the unclear energy policy frame condition and internal
political instability in MENA countries does not attract investors. Moreover, the discovery of
new reserves for oil or natural gas makes the policymaker reluctant to renewables. In addition to
the lower growth of energy demand due to energy efficiency awareness and application. This can
be observed in the strategies in some MENA countries like in Egypt, the recent commissioning
of a 1200 MW El-Dabaa nuclear power plant is seen as a means of meeting rising domestic
energy demand while protecting the export value of its substantial natural gas reserves (8 p. 2).
No CSP projects are held in Libya and Tunisia till 2010. In addition, the lack of know-how of
this technology in MENA countries adds more challenges in their energy resource development.
The following is a detailed study of these scenarios for 5 selected MENA focus countries
individually, the other 13 remaining MENA countries as a whole, and the export to Europe with
figures and graphs that shows the future trend of desert power generation:
29
2.1All MENA countries
It includes 18 countries, 5 from North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt) and
13 from the Middle-East (Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA),
Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Yemen). In
table 2-1, the data is obtained from the “MED-CSP (2005)” study. It shows an overview of the
prospected electricity generated and installed capacity of wind, PV and CSP in MENA countries
as a whole. It can be observed also that about 540 GW should be installed from these three
technologies in 2050, producing about 2300 TWh in this year which is slightly lower than the
electricity consumption in Europe in 2050 which is about 2555 TWh. Tables 2-2 and 2-3 show
the best scenario and the conservative scenario respectively. In the best scenario, electricity
generated from CSP alone in 2050 can cover 96% of Europe’s electricity consumption in the
same year regardless the losses. On the other hand, if the total electricity generated from these
three technologies in the best scenario is exported, it could cover Europe’s electricity demand
taking into account 10% losses. But at the same time, MENA region’s electricity consumption
may exceed that of Europe in 2050. So, there will be more competition and hesitation about
whether to export or to use it domestically, and this may cause conflicts.
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Total
Electricity
Capacity
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
Sources
2010
16.10
7.0
2012
21.70
9.5
2020
43.90
19.4
2050
182.60
80.3
2.80
0.4
14.00
1.8
58.80
7.3
1964.30
355.2
3.90
2.5
7.80
4.7
23.60
13.3
196.20
108.9
22.80
9.9
43.50
16.0
126.30
40.0
2343.10
544.4
(6)
Table 2-1: All MENA countries, the most likely scenario
30
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
16.10
7.0
2012
27.10
11.9
2020
54.90
24.3
2050
228.30
100.4
2.80
0.4
17.50
2.3
73.50
9.1
2455.40
444.0
3.90
2.5
9.80
5.9
29.50
16.6
245.30
136.1
22.80
9.9
54.40
20.0
157.90
50.0
2928.90
680.5
Table 2-2: All MENA countries, the best scenario
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
16.10
7.0
2012
19.5
8.6
2020
39.5
17.5
2050
164.3
72.3
2.80
0.4
12.6
1.6
52.9
6.6
1767.9
319.7
3.90
2.5
7.0
4.2
21.2
12.0
176.6
98.0
22.80
9.9
39.2
14.4
113.7
36.0
2108.8
490.0
Table 2-3: All MENA countries, the conservative scenario
Figures 2-7 and 2-8 below show a comparison between the three scenarios for desert power
generation from MENA countries as a whole in terms of installed capacity and generated
electricity. It can be seen that after 2020 there will be more trends towards CSP technology as
compared to PV and wind energy. This is because the potential for CSP in MENA region is
greater than for PV and wind energy due to the presence of vast areas in the deserts with high
solar irradiation. Also because CSP will become more competitive due to achieved cost
reductions until then and good wind sites will become rare, but good solar sites are plentiful. It
shows also that the total installed capacity of these three technologies will be about 10 times in
2050 compared to 2020. Moreover, the cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of installed
capacity between 2012 and 2020 is 12.1% while between 2020 and 2050 is 9.1%. This is
consistent throughout the three scenarios.
31
600
500
GW
GW
the most likely
9.1%
400
300
200
12.1%
100
0
700
600
GW
700
the best
CAGR
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
2050
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
2010
2012
Wind
Year
the conservative
600
0
2010
700
CSP
2020
2050
PV
Year
0
2010
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
2050
PV
Year
the most likely
2500
3000
TWh/a
3000
TWh/a
TWh/a
Figure 2-7: Installed capacity, All MENA countries, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
the best
2500
3000
2000
2000
2000
1500
1500
1500
1000
1000
1000
500
500
500
0
0
0
2010
2012
2020
Wind
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2010
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
2050
PV
Year
the conservative
2500
2010
Figure 2-8: Generated electricity, All MENA countries, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
32
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2.1.1 Morocco
Morocco has significant potential for solar power generation and wind farms. There are currently
four wind farms operational in Morocco with a total capacity of 280 MW. Morocco plans to have
about 1,000 MW of wind power operational by 2012 and 2000 MW in 2020. The country also
aims at providing 2,000 MW capacity through CSP plants by 2020. Some projects are already on
the way, e.g. the Ouarzazate CSP project is intended to have a capacity of 500 MW by 2015 and
will be tendered by the state agency MASEN. There is also the Integrated Solar Combined Cycle
(ISCC) power plant in Ain Beni Mathar with a solar share of 20 MW as published by National
Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) web site. The country already has 6 MW installed
capacity from PV and plans to have 24 MW by 2012 and 480 MW by 2020. The data in table 2-4
is obtained from different sources; some are from the website of the Ministry of Energy, Mines,
Water and Environment in Morocco where it contains some press reports and presentations and
some from Renewable Energy Development Center (CDER) presentations, the missing data is
obtained from the “MED-CSP (2005)” study excel sheet but it does not contain data for 2012, so
it is interpolated linearly. Due to the data mix, the electricity generated is calculated by
multiplication of installed capacity with the full load hours. Tables 2-5 and 2-6 show the best and
the conservative scenarios respectively.
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Sources
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
0.76a
280c
2708b
2012
2.70a
1000c
2708b
a
a
2020
5.42a
2000c
2708b
2050
18.70a
6900b
2708b
0.16
c
20
b
8000
3.33
d
416
d
8000
16.00a
2000c
8000 b
150.00a
27300b
5500b
0.01a
6c
1500b
0.04a
24c
1532d
0.80a
480c
1660b
17.00a
10000b
1700b
0.93
306
6.07
1440
22.22
4480
185.70
44200
a Calculated by multiplication of installed capacity with full load hours
b (6)
c (9)
d Calculated through linear interpolation
Table 2-4: Morocco, the most likely scenario
33
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
0.76
280
2708
2012
3.38
1250
2708
2020
6.78
2500
2708
2050
23.38
8625
2708
0.16
20
8000
4.16
520
8000
20.00
2500
8000
187.50
34125
5500
0.01
6
1500
0.05
30
1500
1.00
600
1660
21.25
12500
1700
0.93
306
7.58
1800
27.78
5600
232.13
55250
Table 2-5: Morocco, the best scenario
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
0.76
280
2708
2012
2.43
900
2708
2020
4.88
1800
2708
2050
16.83
6210
2708
0.16
20
8000
3.00
374.4
8000
14.40
1800
8000
135.00
24570
5500
0.01
6
1500
0.03
22
1500
0.72
432
1660
15.30
9000
1700
0.93
306
5.46
1296
20.00
4032
167.13
39780
Table 2-6: Morocco, the conservative scenario
Figures 2-9 and 2-10 below show a comparison between the three scenarios for desert power
generation from Morocco in terms of installed capacity and generated electricity. It can be seen
that after 2020 there will be more trends towards CSP technology as compared to PV and wind
energy and the electricity production from CSP will be the highest due to high solar potential and
reduced cost. It shows also that the total installed capacity of these three technologies can reach
about 45 GW with about 200 TWh electricity generation in the year 2050. Moreover, the CAGR
of installed capacity between 2012 and 2020 is 15.2% while between 2020 and 2050 is 7.9%.
This is consistent throughout the three scenarios.
34
the most likely
60
GW
GW
GW
60
the best
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
10
0
0
0
50
40
7.9%
30
20
15.2%
2010
CAGR
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
2050
PV
Year
2010
2012
Wind
2020
2050
PV
Year
CSP
the conservative
2010
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
2050
PV
Year
the most likely
200
250
TWh/a
250
TWh/a
TWh/a
Figure 2-9: Installed capacity, Morocco, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
the best
200
250
200
150
150
150
100
100
100
50
50
50
0
0
2010
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
PV
2050
Year
2010
Wind
2012
CSP
2020
2050
PV
Year
0
2010
Figure 2-10: Generated electricity, Morocco, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
35
the conservative
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2.1.2 Algeria
According to its geographical situation, Algeria holds one of the highest solar reservoirs in the
world. The insulation time over the quasi-totality of the national territory exceeds 2000 hrs
annually and may reach 3900 hrs (high plains and Sahara). The daily obtained energy on a
horizontal surface of 1 m2 is of 5 kWh over the major part of the national territory, or about 1700
kWh/m2/year for the north and 2263 kWh/m2/year for the south of the country (10 p. 4). Algeria
has a moderate wind speed (4 to 6 m/s). This energy potential is ideal for the water pumping
especially in the high plains. It has an installed capacity of about 2280 kW from PV for 20
villages and 73.3 kW from wind used mainly for pumping. New Energy Algeria(NEAL), an
institution set up to carry out projects that make use of renewable energy, has invited expressions
of interest in a hybrid solar-gas project that will be set up at Hassi R’mel. The complex will
comprise a 130 MW combined cycle, with a gas turbine power of the order of 80 MW and a 75
MW steam turbine. A 25 MW solar field, requiring a surface of around 180,000 m2 of parabolic
mirrors, will be the source of non-fossil energy. A project that is similar to that in Morocco(11).
Two more projects are planned; two 400 MW ISCC plants with 70 MW of CSP each are going to
be developed between 2010 and 2015 (12 p. 44).The data in table 2-7 is totally taken from the
“MED-CSP (2005)” study. There was no strategic planning for development in renewable
energy as it depends mainly on natural gas and has enough reserves of it, but recently the
Algerian government is undertaking an aggressive new renewable energy development plan.
Over the next 20 years, Algeria hopes to produce as much electricity from renewable sources as
it currently produces from its natural gas power plants. The issue of renewable energy was on the
agenda of the meeting by the Council of Ministers on December 5th 2010, where they studied a
communication relating to the creation of the Algerian Institute of Renewable Energy under the
presidential directives ordering the promotion of these new power sources. These directives have
already resulted in the promulgation of the law on energy control in 1999 and the law on
renewable energies in 2004. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika gave the government the task of
coming up with measures to encourage investment and capitalize on the results of scientific
research, particularly in renewable energies, to benefit the economy. He also ordered the
government to bring a credible national plan to develop new and renewable energies before the
Council of Ministers in 2011. On an official visit to Germany on December 8th 2010, President
Abdelaziz Bouteflika and Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to set up a joint economic
commission to develop the Desertec project (13). Tables 2-8 and 2-9 show the best and
conservative scenarios respectively.
36
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Sources
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
Total
Electricity
Capacity
(6)
2010
0.70
391
1789
2012
1.10
627
1789
2020
2.80
1570
1789
2050
17.50
9800
1789
0.20
25
8000
0.30
34
8000
5.30
67
8000
164.80
30000
5500
0.30
188
1478
0.50
354
1509
1.70
1020
1635
13.90
8300
1675
1.20
605
1.90
1015
9.80
2657
196.20
48100
Table 2-7: Algeria, the most likely scenario
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
0.70
391
1789
2012
1.40
784
1789
2020
3.50
1962
1789
2050
21.90
12250
1789
0.20
25
8000
0.40
43
8000
6.60
84
8000
206.00
37500
5500
0.30
188
1478
0.60
443
1509
2.10
1275
1635
17.40
10375
1675
1.20
605
2.40
1270
12.20
3321
245.30
60125
Table 2-8: Algeria, the best scenario
37
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
0.70
391
1789
2012
1.00
564
1789
2020
2.50
1413
1789
2050
15.80
8820
1789
0.20
25
8000
0.25
31
8000
4.80
60
8000
148.30
27000
5500
0.30
188
1478
0.45
319
1509
1.50
918
1635
12.50
7470
1675
1.20
605
1.70
914
8.80
2391
176.60
43290
Table 2-9: Algeria, the conservative scenario
Figures 2-11 and 2-12 below show a comparison between the three scenarios for desert power
generation from Algeria in terms of installed capacity and generated electricity. Like in
Morocco, it can be seen that after 2020 there will be a trend towards CSP technology as
compared to PV and wind energy and the electricity production from CSP will be the highest. It
shows also that the total installed capacity of these three technologies can reach around 50 GW
with about 200 TWh generated electricity in the year 2050. This should encourage the country to
be directed more towards CSP technology especially as it has a large desert area that can be
exploited. Moreover, the CAGR of installed capacity between 2012 and 2020 is 12.8% while
between 2020 and 2050 is 10.1%. This is consistent throughout the three scenarios.
38
the most likely
40
10.1%
20
60
GW
GW
GW
60
the best
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
the conservative
12.8%
0
2010
CAGR
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
2050
2010
Year
2012
2020
Wind
CSP
PV
2050
2010
2012
Wind
Year
CSP
2020
2050
PV
Year
the most likely
200
250
TWh/a
250
TWh/a
TWh/a
Figure 2-11: Installed capacity, Algeria, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
the best
200
250
200
150
150
150
100
100
100
50
50
50
0
0
2010
2012
2020
Wind
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2010
the conservative
0
2012
2020
Wind
CSP
PV
2050
Year
Figure 2-12: Generated electricity, Algeria, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
39
2010
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
2050
PV
Year
2.1.3 Tunisia
Renewable energy is part of the responsibility of the Ministry of Industry, Energy and Small and
Medium Enterprises. It is supported by the National Agency for Energy Conservation (ANME),
which plays an important role in fostering research and development as well as designing and
implementing policies and strategies. Wind power is considered the most promising renewable
pathway. By 2011, the national government aims to ramp up wind power capacity to 240 MW,
currently there are 54 MW of wind turbines operating. A 120 MW wind farm is under
construction in Bizerte in North Tunisia. With regard to solar energy, the Tunisian government
puts a strong focus on solar water heaters. PV modules have been installed in 12,500 households
and 200 schools in rural areas. Furthermore, photovoltaic pumping applications are relatively
developed in Tunisia with a total existing capacity of 255 MW. In order to further expand
national renewable energy production, the Tunisian government adopted a policy titled “Plan
Solaire Tunisien” in September 2009. The plan aims at reducing energy use by 22% by 2016
through an expansion of renewable energy production. The solar plan encompasses a total of 40
technology projects. The project portfolio is not limited to solar energy but also includes wind
energy projects and energy efficiency initiatives. In the field of solar energy, both projects for
solar thermal applications and decentralized and centralized power generation are being pursued.
Projects for centralized power generation add up to a capacity of approximately 100 MW for
CSP plants and 20 MW for PV operations. Furthermore, the government aims at establishing
manufacturing capacities for PV modules with a total capacity of 14 MW per year. The
capacities of all planned wind power projects cumulate to 280 MW (14 pp. 97.98, Annex 5).
Mitsui Engineering aims to build a tower-type concentrated solar power plant (CSP) with
capacity of 5 MW in El Borma in southern Tunisia after conducting a feasibility study next year
under a joint project of the Japanese and Tunisian governments. The El Borma plant will be
combined with a 39 MW gas-turbine combined cycle (15). Table 2-10 shows the most likely
scenario, where there is no plan for CSP till 2012, but maybe in their solar plan, there will be the
first CSP plant by 2016. Tables 2-11 and 2-12 show the best and conservative scenarios
respectively.
40
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Sources
Wind
2010
2012
2020
2050
Electricity
0.10
0.40
3.00
7.50
Capacity
54a
240a
1680
4200
Full Load Hours
1789
1789
1789
1789
CSP
Electricity
0.00a
0.00a
1.40
43.30
a
a
Capacity
0
0
180
7900
Full Load Hours
0a
0a
8000
5500
PV
Electricity
0.30b
0.40
0.60
5.00
Capacity
255a
276 c
360
3000
Full Load Hours
1485
1517
1643
1683
Total
Electricity
0.48
0.80
5.00
55.80
Capacity
309
516
2220
15100
(6)
a (14 pp. 97,98 Annex 5)
b Calculated by multiplication of installed capacity with full load hours
c Calculated through linear interpolation
Table 2-10: Tunisia, the most likely scenario
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
0.10
54
1789
2012
0.50
300
1789
2020
3.80
2100
1789
2050
9.40
5250
1789
0.00
0
0
0.00
0
0
1.80
225
8000
54.10
9875
5500
0.30
255
1485
0.50
345
1517
0.75
450
1643
6.30
3750
1683
0.48
309
1.00
645
6.35
2775
69.80
18875
Table 2-11: Tunisia, the best scenario
41
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Full Load Hours
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
0.10
54
1789
2012
0.36
216
1789
2020
2.70
1512
1789
2050
6.80
3780
1789
0.00
0
0
0.00
0
0
1.26
162
8000
39.00
7110
5500
0.30
255
1485
0.36
248
1517
0.54
324
1643
4.50
2700
1683
0.48
309
0.72
464
4.50
1998
50.30
13590
Table 2-12: Tunisia, the conservative scenario
Figures 2-13 and 2-14 below show a comparison between the three scenarios for desert power
generation from Tunisia in terms of installed capacity and generated electricity. On the contrary,
there is a trend towards wind energy compared to Morocco and Algeria; this is because it has a
good wind regime (around 6 m/s) especially in coastal areas. CSP and PV are also promising in
the future. It shows that the total installed capacity of these three technologies can reach about 15
GW with about 60 TWh electricity generation in the year 2050. This is lower than in Morocco
and Algeria but it shows a good balanced resource mix. Moreover, the CAGR of installed
capacity between 2012 and 2020 is 20% while between 2020 and 2050 is 6.6%. This is
consistent throughout the three scenarios. In addition, the Tunisian government is working on
solar water heater also, and it shows great success especially after implementing the PROSOL3
Tunisia program.
3
It is a program aiming at the development of the use of Solar Water-Heater (SWH) in the residential sector,
through the implementation of a number of encouraging measures.
42
15
6.6%
10
20%
5
0
GW
20
the most likely
the best
GW
GW
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
2010
CAGR
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
20
2050
2010
Year
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
the conservative
0
2050
2010
Year
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
2050
Year
60
the most likely
70
60
TWh/a
70
TWh/a
TWh/a
Figure 2-13: Installed capacity, Tunisia, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
the best
70
60
50
50
50
40
40
40
30
30
30
20
20
20
10
10
10
0
0
0
2010
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2010
2012
2020
Wind
CSP
PV
2050
Year
Figure 2-14: Generated electricity, Tunisia, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
43
the conservative
2010
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
PV
2050
Year
2.1.4 Libya
Libya has significant wind and solar energy potential. In 2004 measurements of the wind speed
statistics has been conducted and showed that there is a high potentiality for wind energy in
Libya. The average wind speed at a 40 m height is between 6-7.5 m/s (16 p. 159). The region
around the city Misurata would have the highest realizable energy output. Libya’s goal was to
install up to 10 MW of wind turbines until 2010. The region with the highest amount of solar
radiation is located in the south of Libya. The accessible radiation depends not only on global
radiation, but cloud coverage and exposition are also very important. A study for the Center of
Global Development is proposed to build CSP plants in the Northwest area between Ghadamis
and Al Quaryah ash Sharqiyah. 1,865 kW of PV capacity were installed in Libya in 2006. The
amount is increasing significantly; especially decentralized electricity generation in rural areas is
being encouraged. Photovoltaics are also used in agriculture to supply water pumps with
electricity instead of using diesel. The long-term plan was to install an overall PV capacity of 10
MW until 2010. The Renwable Energy Authority of Libya (REAOL) was founded to promote
the development of renewable energy in Libya. REAOL has set a target to cover 10% of Libya’s
energy supply from renewable energy resources by the year of 2020 and 30% by 2030. In order
to meet these objectives, REAOL has developed a roadmap for the expansion of renewable
energy production capacity. REAOL handed the roadmap over to the Ministry of Electricity and
Energy. The ministry, which has been disbanded in 2008, approved the roadmap (17 pp. 127129, Annex 6). Table 2-13 shows the most likely scenario. Data are obtained from a study done
by RCREEE and funded by the Danish International Development Agency (DANIDA) in 2010.
Missing data is obtained from the “MED-CSP (2005)” study. In 2012, data is linearly
interpolated and the electricity generated is calculated by multiplication of installed capacity with
full load hours. Tables 2-14 and 2-15 show the best and the most likely scenario respectively.
44
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Sources
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Wind
2010
2012
2020
2050
Electricity
0.02a
1.63a
2.87a
7.46b
Capacity
10c
850c
1500c
3900b
Full Load Hours
1912b
1912h
1912b
1912b
CSP
Electricity
0.00c
0.80a
6.40a
22.00b
Capacity
0c
100c
800c
4000b
c
d
b
Full Load Hours
0
8000
8000
5500b
PV
Electricity
0.02a
0.03a
0.24a
3.96b
c
c
c
Capacity
10
20
150
2400b
Full Load Hours
1455b
1486d
1610b
1649b
Total
Electricity
0.03
2.45
9.51
33.41
Capacity
20
970
2450
10300
a Calculated by multiplication of installed capacity with full load hours
b (6)
c (17 pp. 127-129, Annex 6)
d Calculated through linear interpolation
Table 2-13: Libya, the most likely scenario
Wind
2010
2012
Electricity
0.02
2.03
Capacity
10
1063
Full Load Hours
1912
1912
CSP
Electricity
0.00
1.00
Capacity
0
125
Full Load Hours
0
8000
PV
Electricity
0.02
0.04
Capacity
10
25
Full Load Hours
1455
1486
Total
Electricity
0.03
3.07
Capacity
20
1212.5
Table 2-14: Libya, the best scenario
45
2020
3.59
1875
1912
2050
9.32
4875
1912
8.00
1000
8000
27.50
5000
5500
0.30
187.5
1610
4.95
3000
1649
11.89
3062.5
41.77
12875
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Wind
2010
2012
2020
Electricity
0.02
1.46
2.58
Capacity
10
765
1350
Full Load Hours
1912
1912
1912
CSP
Electricity
0.00
0.72
5.76
Capacity
0
90
720
Full Load Hours
0
8000
8000
PV
Electricity
0.02
0.03
0.22
Capacity
10
18
135
Full Load Hours
1455
1486
1610
Total
Electricity
0.03
2.21
8.56
Capacity
20
873
2205
Table 2-15: Libya, the conservative scenario
2050
6.71
3510
1912
19.80
3600
5500
3.56
2160
1649
30.07
9270
Figures 2-15 and 2-16 below show a comparison between the three scenarios for desert power
generation from Libya in terms of installed capacity and generated electricity. Like Tunisia, there
is a trend towards wind energy as compared to Morocco and Algeria; this is because it has a
good wind regime (around 7 m/s) especially in the North. The daily average of solar radiation on
a horizontal plane is 7.1 kWh/m2/day in the coastal region and 8.1 kWh/m2/day in the southern
region, with average sun duration of more than 3500 hours per year (16 p. 153). CSP and PV are
therefore promising in the future. It shows also that the total installed capacity of these three
technologies can reach about 10 GW with about 35 TWh electricity generation in the year 2050.
Moreover, the CAGR of installed capacity between 2012 and 2020 is 12.3% while between 2020
and 2050 is 4.9%. This is consistent throughout the three scenarios. However, in 2050 the
installed capacity can reach 5 times that in 2020. Although the installed capacity from wind and
CSP are comparable in 2050, the output electricity from CSP is still higher. This is due to the
fluctuation in wind energy and because the storage capability is still not as developed (e.g.
batteries) as it is in CSP (e.g. molten salts).
46
the most likely
12
12
10
4.9%
8
6
4
12.3%
2
0
2010
CAGR
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
2050
PV
14
the best
GW
14
GW
GW
14
2010
Year
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2010
the conservative
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
PV
2050
Year
the most likely
40
50
TWh/a
50
TWh/a
TWh/a
Figure 2-15: Installed capacity, Libya, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
the best
40
50
40
30
30
30
20
20
20
10
10
0
0
2010
2012
2020
Wind
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2010
the conservative
10
0
2012
2020
Wind
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2010
Figure 2-16: Generated electricity, Libya, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
47
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2.1.5 Egypt
Egypt’s strategy, which was approved in February 2008, aims to contribution of renewable
energies by 20% of the total electricity generation by the year 2020. The share from the gridconnected wind power will be 12% of the total electricity generation, and that represents about
7,200 MW of total capacities in 2020. Also, other renewable energy applications, led by
hydropower and solar energy, will have a significant contribution. There are many promising
areas with high wind speeds of about 10 m/s average in the Gulf of Suez, some areas located on
both sides of the Nile River, and some areas in Sinai. The total capacity of wind farms reached
430 MW (5 MW of wind farms in Hurghada and a 425 MW wind farm in Zafarana) at the end of
2009. There is also another 120MW wind farm in cooperation with Denmark in the phase of
implementation and it was planned to be operational by June 2010. Thus, the total installed
capacity should be 550 MW by the end of 2010. In 2012/2013, a 200 MW wind farm in
cooperation with Germany, European Union and European Investment Bank (EIB) at the Gulf of
El-Zayt is planned to start its operation. Thus, the total capacity from wind energy will reach 750
MW by 2012. Egypt is endowed with high intensity of DNI ranging between 2000 – 3200
kWh/m2/year from North to South. Solar PV systems are one of the best renewable energy
applications in remote areas with small loads of scattered houses, and can fuel a wide range of
loads. Estimated total capacity of PV panels installed in Egypt is about 10 MW of utmost for the
purposes of different kinds of lighting, water pumping, telecommunications, refrigeration,
advertising and other uses. For CSP, there is an Integrated Solar Combined Cycle Power plant
located in Kuraymat. The capacity of the project is 140 MW including a solar share of 20 MW
and was expected to be completed and operational by the end of 2010. Solar projects are
considered one of the main aspects to increase the contribution of renewable energies. The 5 year
plan (2012 - 2017) includes two solar thermal electricity generation plants, with total capacity of
100 MW and four photovoltaic plants with total capacity of 20 MW (18 pp. 8, 10-12, 15-17, 19).
Thus, the total installed capacity from CSP will reach 120 MW and 30 MW from PV by 2020.
Tables 2-16, 2-17 and 2-18 below show the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
respectively.
48
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Sources
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Wind
2010
2012
2020
2050
Electricity
1.66a
2.26a
21.71a
67.54a
Capacity
550c
750c
7200c
22400b
Full Load Hours
3015b
3015d
3015b
3015b
CSP
Electricity
0.16a
0.16a
0.96a
394.90a
c
c
c
Capacity
20
20
120
71800b
b
d
b
Full Load Hours
8000
8000
8000
5500 b
PV
Electricity
0.02a
0.03a
0.06a
36.03a
c
d
c
Capacity
10
14
30
17300b
Full Load Hours
1838b
1877d
2034b
2083b
Total
Electricity
1.84
2.45
22.73
498.46
Capacity
580
784
7350
111500
a Calculated by multiplication of installed capacity with full load hours
b (6)
c (18 pp. 8, 10-12, 15-17, 19)
d Calculated through linear interpolation
Table 2-16: Egypt, the most likely scenario
Wind
2010
2012
Electricity
1.66
2.83
Capacity
550
938
Full Load Hours
3015
3015
CSP
Electricity
0.16
0.20
Capacity
20
25
Full Load Hours
8000
8000
PV
Electricity
0.02
0.03
Capacity
10
18
Full Load Hours
1838
1877
Total
Electricity
1.84
3.06
Capacity
580
980
Table 2-17: Egypt, the best scenario
49
2020
27.14
9000
3015
2050
84.42
28000
3015
1.20
150
8000
493.63
89750
5500
0.08
38
2034
45.03
21625
2083
28.41
9187.5
623.08
139375
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
h/a
TWh/a
MW
Wind
2010
2012
2020
Electricity
1.66
2.04
19.54
Capacity
550
675
6480
Full Load Hours
3015
3015
3015
CSP
Electricity
0.16
0.14
0.86
Capacity
20
18
108
Full Load Hours
8000
8000
8000
PV
Electricity
0.02
0.02
0.05
Capacity
10
13
27
Full Load Hours
1838
1877
2034
Total
Electricity
1.84
2.20
20.46
Capacity
580
705.6
6615
Table 2-18: Egypt, the conservative scenario
2050
60.78
20160
3015
355.41
64620
5500
32.42
15570
2083
448.62
100350
Figures 2-17 and 2-18 below show a comparison between the three scenarios for desert power
generation from Egypt in terms of installed capacity and generated electricity. There is a trend
towards both wind energy and CSP. PV is also promising in the future. It shows that the total
installed capacity of these three technologies can reach about 100 GW with about 500 TWh
electricity generation in the year 2050. This is a huge amount as compared to the previous
MENA focus countries. The figures show also that the CAGR of installed capacity between 2012
and 2020 is 32.3% while between 2020 and 2050 is 9.5%. This is consistent throughout the three
scenarios. In 2050, the installed capacity can reach 5 times of that in 2020. It shows also that the
CSP technology penetration will be more than wind after 2020.
50
GW
GW
the most likely
120
100
9.5%
80
60
40
32.3%
20
0
2010
CAGR
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
2050
Year
140
140
the best
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
0
2010
the conservative
GW
140
2012
Wind
2020
CSP PV
2050
Year
2010
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
PV
2050
Year
the most likely
500
700
600
500
the conservative
400
500
400
300
400
300
300
200
200
200
100
100
0
0
2010
the best
TWh/a
600
TWh/a
TWh/a
Figure 2-17: Installed capacity, Egypt, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
PV
2050
Year
2010
100
0
2012
2020
Wind
CSP
PV
2050
Year
Figure 2-18: Generated electricity, Egypt, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenario
51
2010
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
PV
2050
Year
2.1.6 Other MENA countries
The following section is about the remaining 13 Middle East countries. Data is obtained from the
“MED-CSP (2005)” study, and the best and conservative scenarios are applied on it as explained
in tables 2-19, 2-20 and 2-21. They show a promising potential in the three fields (Wind, CSP
and PV) but with more emphasis on CSP. This is clear from the available direct solar radiation in
this region most of the year. In addition, there are enough sea water resources surrounding the
Gulf region that can be used for cooling towers and for desalination to meet their demands for
fresh water. United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel are leaders in the Middle East in the field of
renewable energy. There is a city in UAE called MASDAR CITY that is built on the idea to use
only renewable resources, and Masdar, the Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company which plans this
city, is also planning CSP projects. One of these projects is Shams 1 project with a capacity of
100 MW. It is located in Madinat Zayed in Abu Dhabi and should start operation in 2012. It is a
Joint Venture between Masdar (UAE), Abengoa (Spain) and Total (France) with a share of 60%,
20% and 20% respectively (19).
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Total
Electricity
Capacity
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
Sources
2010
8.1
3.8
2012
10.6
5.1
2020
20.5
9.9
2050
63.8
33.1
2.0
0.3
9.4
1.2
39.0
4.8
1189.4
214.3
2.4
1.6
4.8
3.0
14.5
8.3
120.4
68.0
12.6
5.7
24.9
9.3
74.0
23.0
1373.6
315.4
(6)
Table 2-19: Other MENA countries, the most likely scenario
52
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
8.1
3.8
2012
13.3
6.3
2020
25.6
12.3
2050
79.8
41.3
2.0
0.3
11.8
1.5
48.8
6.0
1486.8
267.9
2.4
1.6
6.0
3.7
18.1
10.3
150.5
85.0
12.6
5.7
31.1
11.6
92.5
28.7
1717.0
394.2
Table 2-20: Other MENA countries, the best scenario
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
TWh/a
GW
Wind
Electricity
Capacity
CSP
Electricity
Capacity
PV
Electricity
Capacity
Total
Electricity
Capacity
2010
8.1
3.8
2012
9.6
4.6
2020
18.4
8.9
2050
57.4
29.8
2.0
0.3
8.5
1.1
35.1
4.3
1070.5
192.9
2.4
1.6
4.3
2.7
13.1
7.4
108.3
61.2
12.6
5.7
22.4
8.3
66.6
20.7
1236.2
283.8
Table 2-21: Other MENA countries, the conservative scenario
Figures 2-19 and 2-20 below show a comparison between the three scenarios for desert power
generation from Middle East in terms of installed capacity and generated electricity. There is a
great change towards renewables after 2020. In addition, it shows also that the total installed
capacity of these three technologies can reach about 300 GW with about 1400 TWh electricity
generation in the year 2050. This equals to 3 times the capacity and electricity in Egypt in 2050.
And this indicates the high potential in Egypt for this technology. Moreover, the CAGR of
installed capacity between 2012 and 2020 is 12.1% while between 2020 and 2050 is 9.1%. This
is consistent throughout the three scenarios.
53
300
400
the best
GW
the most likely
GW
GW
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
the conservative
9.1%
200
100
12.1%
0
2010
2012
Wind
CAGR
2020
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2010
2012
2020
Wind
CSP
PV
2010
2050
Year
2012
Wind
2020
CSP
PV
2050
Year
1600
the most likely
1400
1800
1600
the best
TWh/a
1800
TWh/a
TWh/a
Figure 2-19: Installed capacity, other MENA countries, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
1400
1800
1600
1400
1200
1200
1200
1000
1000
1000
800
800
800
600
600
600
400
400
400
200
200
200
0
0
0
2010
2012
2020
Wind
CSP
PV
2050
Year
2010
2012
Wind
CSP
2020
PV
2050
Year
the conservative
2010
Wind
Figure 2-20: Generated electricity, other MENA countries, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
54
2012
CSP
2020
PV
2050
Year
2.2Exports to Europe
It is assumed that 18% of power and electricity generated from MENA deserts is exported to
Europe. It is assumed also that 10% of this electric energy generated is lost during transmission
lines, with a maximum distance of 3,000 km and line losses of 3% per 1,000 km, in addition to
station losses, see table 2-22. This will end up with the contribution of about 15% of European
electricity consumption from desert power generation in MENA by 2050 in the most likely
scenario which is the long term goal of the Desertec concept. Table 2-22 shows the different
types of HVDC cables with different voltage levels and different maximum capacity and the life
time. It shows also the losses either from the cable for 1,000 km and for the station.
Capacity
Station losses
Line losses
Lifetime (yr)
max. (MW)
(%)
(%)
800
6400
0.6
3
40
HVDC OL
600
4000
0.7
4.5
40
HVDC OL
500
3000
0.7
5
40
HVDC OL
600
2200
0.7
3.5
40
HVDC UC
500
1600
0.7
2.7
40
HVDC SC
600
2000
0.7
2.7
40
HVDC SC
OL= overhead line , UC= underground cable , SC= submarine cable
(20 p. 91)
Source
Voltage (KV)
Table 2-22: Assumed technical parameters of bipolar electricity lines
Tables 2-23, 2-24 and 2-25 show the three scenarios on the exported electricity to Europe. It
shows that in 2050 about 100 GW from the desert power generated should be allocated to
Europe, so that about 380 TWh will be fed into the European grid from MENA region after the
losses.
Unit
TWh/a
Item
2012
43.5a
Total electricity generated in MENA from desert
power (solar and wind)
16a
GW
Total installed capacity in MENA from desert power
(solar and wind)
TWh/a
Electricity export to Europe before 10% losses
7.8 b
TWh/a
Electricity export to Europe after 10% losses
7.0 c
GW
Power export to Europe
2.9 b
Source a (6)
b Calculated through multiplication of 18% from the first two rows
c Calculated through subtracting 10% from the third row
Table 2-23: Exports to Europe, the most likely scenario
55
2020
126.3a
2050
2343.1a
40a
544.4a
22.7 b
20.5 c
7.2 b
421.8 b
379.6 c
98.0 b
Unit
Item
Total electricity generated in MENA from
TWh/a
desert power (solar and wind)
Total installed capacity in MENA from desert
GW
power (solar and wind)
TWh/a Electricity export to Europe before 10% losses
TWh/a Electricity export to Europe after 10% losses
GW
Power export to Europe
2012
2020
2050
54.4
157.9
2928.9
20.0
50.0
680.5
9.8
8.8
3.6
28.4
25.6
9.0
527.2
474.5
122.5
2012
2020
2050
39.2
113.7
2108.8
14.4
36.0
490.0
7.0
6.3
2.6
20.5
18.4
6.5
379.6
341.6
88.2
Table 2-24: Exports to Europe, the best scenario
Unit
Item
Total electricity generated in MENA from
TWh/a
desert power (solar and wind)
Total installed capacity in MENA from desert
GW
power (solar and wind)
TWh/a Electricity export to Europe before 10% losses
TWh/a Electricity export to Europe after 10% losses
GW
Power export to Europe
Table 2-25: Exports to Europe, the conservative scenario
Figures 2-21 and 2-22 below show a comparison between the three scenarios in terms of
installed capacity and generated electricity for export from MENA to Europe. They show that the
export will be more significant after the year 2020. Moreover, the CAGR of installed capacity
between 2012 and 2020 is 12.1% while between 2020 and 2050 is 9.1%. This is consistent
throughout the three scenarios. There are still some challenges and researches about the method
of export to decrease the losses.
Comparing between HVDC, HVAC cables, hydrogen and methane as means of transportation,
HVDC was found to be the most competitive, efficient and economic transmission technology.
56
the most likely
600
500
9.1%
400
300
200
12.1%
100
0
2010
2012
2020
the best
600
700
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
2010
2012
2020
Total MENA CSP, PV and wind
Export to EU
2050
Total MENA CSP, PV and wind Year
Export to EU
CAGR
700
GW
GW
GW
700
2010
2050
Year
the conservative
2012
2020
2050
Total MENA CSP, PV and wind Year
Export to EU
2500
the most likely
3000
2500
TWh/a
3000
TWh/a
TWh/a
Figure 2-21: Power export to EU, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
the best
3000
2500
2000
2000
2000
1500
1500
1500
1000
1000
1000
500
500
500
0
0
0
2010
2012
2020
Total MENA CSP, PV and wind
Export to EU after 30% losses
2050
Year
2010
2012
2020
Total MENA CSP, PV and wind
Export to EU after 30% losses
2050
Year
Figure 2-22: Electricity export to EU, the most likely, the best and the conservative scenarios
57
the conservative
2010
2012
2020
Total MENA CSP, PV and wind
Export to EU after 30% losses
2050
Year
Now, after applying the scenarios on the export portion, we can compare it with the European
electricity consumption expected throughout the same years of study. It was found that in 2050
the most likely scenario can cover about 14.9% of total European electricity consumption.
Furthermore, the best scenario can reach 18.6%, and in the worst case 13.4% in the conservative
scenario. Figure 2-23 shows the share of electricity imports from MENA desert to Europe after
the expected losses in absolute values and in percentage.
Scenario
TWh/a
Total European electricity
consumption
Electricity Import
Percentage
Electricity Import
Percentage
Electricity Import
Percentage
TWh/a
%
TWh/a
%
TWh/a
%
The most
likely
The best
The
conservative
2012
2020
2050
2636.8 a
2785.5 a
2555.1a
7.0
0.3
8.8
0.3
6.3
0.2
20.5
0.7
25.6
0.9
18.4
0.7
379.6
14.9
474.5
18.6
341.6
13.4
TWh/a
a (7)
Source
Table 2-26: Share of electricity imports from MENA desert in European electricity consumption
500
20.0
EU electricity import
400
15.0
%
300
Percentage of EU electricity
consumption import from
solar and wind
from MENA
10.0
200
100
5.0
0
2012
0.0
2020
2050
Year
Imports from MENA, the conservative scenario
2012
2020
The conservative scenario
The most likely scenario
The best scenario
Import from MENA, the most likely scenario
imports from MENA, the best scenario
2050
Year
Figure 2-23: Share of electricity imports from MENA desert in European electricity consumption in
absolute value and percentage
After introducing the different power generation scenarios, the following chapter will identify
the impact parameters that could be affected from desert power generation.
58
3 Chapter Three: Identifying Impact Parameters
In this chapter, the potential parameters that can be affected
affected by desert power generation are
identified. Power
ower generation affects all general life aspects within the country and affects also the
neighboring countries. This thesis concentrates on renewable energy generation mainly from
CSP and PV plants and wind
nd farms but not on conventional sources.
These parameters are divided into four main categories;; economical, social, environmental and
political.
Economical
GDP
Social
Environmental
Job
generation
CO2 emission
Political
Conflicts
Know-how
transfer
Grid Infrastructure
General Infrastructure
Figure 3-1: Impacts parameters
3.1 Economical
Great efforts should be made to facilitate the economical and social development in the MENA
region. One of the major instruments will be the trade and investments
investment which in turn will provide
new jobs andd increased political stability (21 p. 12).
There are many studies that show the relationship between electricity consumption and economic
growth measured by real Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Some of them found that economic
growth is affected by electricity or energy consumption both directly and/
and/or indirectly (growth
hypothesis), others that energy consumption is affected by economic growth like in the “MEDCSP (2005) study” (conservation hypothesis), others that energy consumption and real GDP
were interdependent and that there was bidirectional causality among them (feedback
hypothesis) or even that there was no causality relationship among the variables (neutrality
hypothesis) (22 p. 3).
For MENA countries, the installation of new power supply will cause the industry, agriculture
and trade flourish. Especially from a new technology perspective this will trigger the industry for
materials that are used in the power generation, for instance, the construction building materials,
mirrors
irrors and glass for CSP and PV or blades for wind turbines. It will induce new industry for
energy storage materials. Moreover, using such plants for sea water desalination, this can
59
enhance the use of this water for desert irrigation, and increase the agricultural land area and
production. As a result a new large market will be available that improves the trade inside and
outside the countries.
For European countries, more economic development can result from desert power generation
through the export of technology, know-how, and experience to MENA countries that lack such
things. In addition, the power transmitted to Europe will differentiate and stabilize their energy
supply which is important for some industries that critically depends on electricity.
So, it is clear that there is a strong relation between country’s economy and power generation
from the desert. The best economic parameter that can be used is the GDP. This study will
concentrate on the impact of power generation from the desert on economic growth measured by
GDP.
3.1.1 GDP
The GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a geographical
entity within a given period of time. It is:
Gross because the depreciation of the value of capital used in the production of goods and
services has not been deducted from the total value of GDP;
Domestic because it relates only to activities within a domestic economy regardless of
ownership (alternatively: "national" if based on nationality);
Product refers to what is being produced, i.e. the goods and services, otherwise known as the
output of the economy. This product/output is the end result of the economic activities within an
economy. The GDP is the value of this output.
Value is made up of prices and quantity. An economy can increase the value of its GDP either by
increasing the price that will be paid (e.g. by raising quality) for its goods and services, or by
increasing the amount of goods or services that it produces. In order to avoid double-counting, it
is important that GDP measures each product or service only once, i.e. the "final value". There
are different approaches to measure the GDP; one of them is the Expenditure approach to GDP
(Effective Demand):
For any of the calculation methods, it is essential for GDP that the expenditure for consumption
is final for the given time period used (mostly annual or quarterly), i.e. the same resources will
not be used for further production in the same period. Next to final consumption expenditure,
investments by firms (into capital goods) are also part of final demand in as far as the investment
goods are durable and are not used up in the same period. Applying this logic yields two basic
components of GDP from the expenditure side:
Consumption Expenditure + Investment Expenditure = GDP
In modern accounting practice, two modifications to this basic identity are made. The first one is
to treat the government and private sector separately, based on the different tasks and incentives
underlying these two sectors. The second one is to account for the fact that not all domestic
production leads to domestic consumption, but exports and imports change this picture. The
above aggregate will already include imports as their final consumption is on the domestic
60
market (even though production is abroad). But it will not include exports as these are used for
final consumption on the world market, yet their production is at home. One way to correct for
this is to use net exports (exports minus imports, denoted "X"), thereby capturing the net
contribution of foreign production to domestic consumption (23 pp. 10,73). The definition of
each component can be found in annex A-1.
C
+
I
+
G
+
X
= GDP
Consumption + Investment + Government spending + (Export-Import) = GDP
The following figures show the growth in GDP from 2005 till 2050 in MENA focus countries,
other MENA countries and all MENA as well as European Union countries as a whole. The real
values are present in table A-1 in annex A-3. Figure 3-3 shows the economy development in
MENA focus countries. It shows comparable growth between Egypt and Algeria, and between
Libya and Morocco. Egypt and Algeria show the highest economy developments, where the
GDP increases from about 230 billion USD to about 420 billion USD between the years 2020
and 2050 with an average growth rate of 2.8% per year. Libya and Morocco show lower
economy developments. Their GDPs increase from about 130 billion USD to about 230 billion
USD between the years 2020 and 2050 with an average growth rate of 2.6% per year. Tunisia
shows the lowest economy developments, where the GDP increases from about 50 billion USD
to about 100 billion USD between the years 2020 and 2050 with an average growth rate of 3.3%
per year.
GDP Billions USD
30,000
Economic development in EU
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2008
2012
2020
2050
Year
Figure 3-2: Economic development in EU countries
Source4: (24)
4
Data is obtained in 2008 from the World Bank.2012, 2020 and 2050 are estimates based on average annual
growth rates for the period (2007-2050) obtained from: (Energy revolution world energy scenario third edition,
2010, p.51)
61
Billions USD
$450
$400
Economic development in MENA focus countries
$350
$300
GDP
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2008
Algeria
2012
Morocco
2020
Tunisia
Egypt,
2050 Year
Libya
Figure 3-3: Economic development in MENA focus countries
GDP
Billions USD
Source5: (24)
$7,000
Economic development in MENA countries
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
2008
2012
Other MENA
2020
All MENA
2050
Year
Figure 3-4: Economic development in MENA countries
Source5: (24)
5
Data is obtained in 2008 from the World Bank. 2012, 2020 and 2050 data are estimates based on average annual
growth rates for the period (2007-2050) obtained from: (Energy revolution world energy scenario third edition,
2010, p.51)
62
3.2Social
The social parameters are important for decision makers to encourage investments in huge
projects. Economic growth is usually accompanied by increase in standards of living and positive
social development in different aspects. The main impact parameters that can be affected by
desert power generation used in this thesis are job generation, know-how transfer, grid
infrastructure, and general infrastructure.
3.2.1 Job generation
The introduction of new power generation plants generates a lot of jobs whether directly or
indirectly related. And since the power is generated from a new technology, this will require the
assistance of experts and training for new staff. Moreover, this new technology will encourage
the industry to domestically manufacture the plant components. Also during the construction
period more jobs will be generated. The direct jobs generated are those that are involved in the
plant itself, for example, civil engineers in construction and plant operators, while the indirect
jobs generated are those that are involved in supplier and customers from the plant, for example
the construction parts manufacturer as a supplier. However, new industrial companies which will
get electricity from this new power plant can be considered as a consumer.
3.2.2 Know-how transfer
One of the most important social parameters that will be affected by the introduction of new
power generation is the know-how transfer. Since most MENA countries are still in the
beginning of renewable energy era, they have not the good experience with large capacity wind,
PV or CSP plants and how to face troubleshooting. This can be observed in the introduction of
new educational programs and training in this field and the establishment of research centers
concerned in renewable energy. Examples of this application are the EnerMENA program, the
REMENA master program and the Desertec University Network (DUN).
3.2.3 Grid infrastructure
The electricity grid is the collective name for all the cables, transformers and infrastructure that
transports electricity from power plants to the end users. In all networks, some energy is lost as it
is transmitted. But moving electricity around within a localized distribution network is more
efficient and results in less energy loss. The existing electricity transmission (main grid lines)
and distribution system (local network) was mainly designed and planned 40 to 60 years ago. All
over the developed world, the grids were built with centralized large power plants and high
voltage alternating current (AC) transmission power lines connecting up to the areas where the
power is used. A lower voltage distribution network then carries the current to the final
consumers. This is known as a centralized grid system, with a relatively small number of large
power stations mostly fuelled by coal or gas. In the future the grid network needs to be changed
63
in a way that it does not rely on large conventional power plants but instead on clean energy
from a range of renewable sources. These will typically be smaller scale power generators
distributed throughout the grid. A localized distribution network is more efficient and avoids
energy losses during long distance transmission. There will also be some concentrated supply
from large renewable power plants. Examples of these large generators of the future are the
massive wind farms already being built in Europe’s North Sea and the plan for large areas of
concentrating solar mirrors to generate energy in Southern Europe or Northern Africa. The
challenge ahead is to integrate new generation sources and at the same time phase out most of
the large scale conventional power plants, while still keeping the lights on. This will need novel
types of grids and an innovative power system architecture involving both new technologies and
new ways of managing the network to ensure a balance between fluctuations in energy demand
and supply. The key elements of this new power system architecture are micro grids, smart grids
and an efficient large scale super grid. The three types of system will support and interconnect
with each other (25 pp. 40,41).
Developing cross-border interconnections is considered as a key condition by the countries of the
two shores of Mediterranean to reinforce the reliability of their electrical systems and to optimize
the installed capacity by creating an integrated Mediterranean energy market. The main subregional groups around the Mediterranean Sea are more or less in the advanced stages of linkage
or integration:



In Europe, exchanges take place within the UCTE power system (Union for the
Coordination for the Transmission Electricity)6, which is comprised of 23 European
countries, 35 transmission system operators (TSO) and which supplied around 450
million people for a total electricity consumption of around 2,600TWh in 2007 via
230,000 km of high voltage lines.
On the Eastern flank, the Turkish block does not yet operate synchronously with other
systems despite the existence of many interconnections such as those to Azerbaijan,
Armenia, Bulgaria, Georgia, Iran, Iraq and Syria. The interconnections between Turkey
and Bulgaria and between southern Turkey and the northern part of Syria, however, are
not currently used (these relate to “pocket” operations and do not ensure electrical
continuity). Nevertheless, Turkey will still need to be connected in an asynchronous
mode to other neighboring countries (Iran, Armenia, Georgia, etc.) except Syria.
In the Maghreb area, Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia are interconnected. The electrical
liaison between the Maghreb and Europe has been since 1997 existing by means of two
Spain-Morocco lines via the Strait of Gibraltar. Currently two 700 MVA, 400 kV AC
6
On 01 July 2009 UCTE was wound up. All operational tasks were transferred to ENTSO-E (European network of
transmission system operators for electricity).
64


undersea lines are in operation. Discussions are ongoing between Morocco and Spain to
increase the transfer capacity.
The South-Eastern Mediterranean system (Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon) are
already interconnected. Lines between Egypt and Libya have been since 1998 existing
but are not operational.
The electrical systems of Israel, Cyprus and Malta are mostly isolated; however Israel is
connected with the Palestinian Territories.
Inter-Mediterranean electrical exchanges are quite limited, especially between the Maghreb
countries, despite the strong interconnections and a history of cooperation. The only link that
fully functions, essentially in the North-South direction, is the Spain-Morocco interconnection
(26 pp. 26,27).
Since the old national grid can withstand only limited capacity, it must be upgraded to meet the
requirements of higher installed capacity. Moreover, there should be a good control system and
prediction tools to stabilize the fluctuations in electricity generated from renewables. Wind and
PV are resource driven, so any change in solar irradiation or wind pattern will affect the output
of the plants which in turn can affect the grid negatively. CSP is basically also resource driven,
but efficient storage solutions are available to buffer intermittence and to extend power
production even after sunset.
3.2.4 General infrastructure
The main challenge in generating electricity from the desert is the creation of infrastructure in
the desert. The desert is free from any infrastructure that allows people to work there. New roads
need to be constructed to assist the transportation of power plants construction materials and
labors. Water storage for drinking, construction and even more important for operation (steam
generation for CSP, cleaning of mirrors or PV panels) is required. Furthermore, batteries or new
transmission lines for illuminations and electrically supplied machines, and means of
transportation need to be set up. After the construction of these plants, there will be a great
potential for developing the infrastructure using the electricity or heat generated. For instance,
they will generate fresh water by desalination that can be used for drinking or irrigation of the
deserts, thus improving the agriculture production. They will supply electricity for the
surrounding area and this can help in building of new cities, houses and infrastructures for daily
living (e.g. medical services, etc.) in the desert which in turn reduces the condensation of
population in main cities and reduces the population density. It will allow also for building new
industries in the desert that create new jobs and enhance the national economy.
65
3.3 Environmental
Fossil fuel powering represents a great threat to the natural world and the development of
civilizations. The high rate of climate change cannot be overcome by natural adaptation but
enforces us to change our local living conditions with severe implications for plants, animals and
human (27 p. 7). More than 80% of world’s generated energy comes from fossil fuels. The
current energy debate is dominated by energy security, carbon emissions and energy price. There
are different proposals how to solve such problems of which solar energy is negligible (21 p. 11).
There has been strong emphasis to replace fossil fuels for renewable energy sources, since the
negotiation of the Kyoto protocol. This Protocol obliged industrialized countries to limit their
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, namely carbon dioxide (CO2). Fossil fuels combustions in
conventional power plants play a major rule in raising CO2 concentration. This has increased
negative impacts on climate change and caused global warming. Simultaneously, most energy
balances of developed and developing countries reveal increasing shares of electricity on total
energy production largely contributing to CO2 emissions. Therefore, the negative environmental
impact of the energy sector may be remarkably alleviated by a larger share of renewable energy
sources on total electricity generation. These sources are crucial to achieve sustainability by
reducing the GHG emissions and to improve the security of energy supply for countries
dependent on fossil fuels imports as e.g. Morocco (22 p. 2).
3.3.1 CO2 emission
CO2 is the most important polluting gas, being responsible for 58,8 % of the GHG emissions
worldwide (22 p. 8).The advantage of renewable energy sources for power generation over fossil
fuels is that there is almost no CO2 emission. They do not need burning fossil fuels in their
operation except for CSP which use a small portion of backup fuel (natural gas) to stabilize the
output. Mankind has to decrease the GHGs emissions, mainly CO2 and methane till the year
2050 by 60-70%. So, there should be a development in the technology of energy production to
lower this emission. The required technology is already available and the market for renewable is
increasing but needs to be accelerated (28 p. 9).There is no doubt that electricity from the desert
will speed this up and especially the process of cutting European emissions of CO2 and increase
EU energy supply security (21 p. 11). As the recently yearly CO2 increase rate is about 3.5
GTC/a7 in the atmosphere, more than 3 GTC/a must be stored in the terrestrial biosphere. The
ultimate goal of CO2 emission reduction is to avoid the +2°C maximum warming goal and a
climate system sensitivity of 3°C. EU adopted a target of 20 % CO2 emission reduction in 2020
which is a good sign but still a first major step and other industrialized regions have to follow (29
p. 16). The EU leaders also offered to increase the EU’s emissions reduction to 30%, on
condition that other major emitting countries in the developed and developing worlds commit to
do their fair share under a global climate agreement. United Nations negotiations on such an
agreement are ongoing (30). The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) stated in
7
GTC/a = Giga tons of carbon per year = billion tons of carbon per year
66
2001 that the CO2 content of the atmosphere should be 450 ppm (parts per million) in order to
keep global warming in a range of 1.5 to 3.9°C. The deployment of desert power generation can
reduce the emissions from 1790 Mt/y in the year 2000 to 690 Mt/y in 2050 instead of growing to
3700 Mt/y in a business as a usual case. The German Scientific Council on Global
Environmental Change has recommended a maximum emission of 1-1.5 tons/cap/y (31 p. 41).
3.4 Political
Energy security is important for every country to achieve political stability. Since energy is the
driving force for nation’s development, any change either in energy demands or supply will
affect their development and dependence on other countries. An example of the political
importance of energy is the Russians cut off gas supplies to the Ukraine in early 2006. Great
efforts are being made in Europe to decrease dependence on imports especially from unstable
suppliers (21 p. 12). But this is not the case with the Desertec project, since there will be more
than one supplier for the same customer and the energy transported here is electricity, so there
will be different routes for transmitting the electricity.
3.4.1 Conflicts
All large energy projects involve a measure of technical and market risk, but investment in North
African countries could raise additional concerns, namely the issue of political risks. It is
reported that political risks, including regulations and political stability, were identified more
frequently as a cause of concern than financial, cultural and natural risks. There are three types of
risks to be most important for investors which are those connected with:



the effects of state monopoly
the lack of a stable legal framework
bad corporate and public governance, including corruption and bureaucratic procedures.
Others identify different kinds of political risks as major barriers for investment, starting from
regulatory barriers and uncertainty regarding future regulations, moving to geopolitical risks, and
finishing with terrorism and sabotage risks, the actions not of governments but of nongovernmental social groups taken against energy infrastructure (32)
While addressing political and security threats that are relevant to the European–North African
energy interrelationship two key threat categories are identified:
1. Decisions by North African governments that threaten energy supply to customers
abroad. Much like in the case of Russia and its Eastern European neighbors, this would
entail a scenario in which a North African government deliberately halts the delivery of a
given form of energy to its customers for political or economic reasons. This scenario
could be relevant for fossil energy carriers as well as all forms of electricity generated by
renewable energy technologies.
67
2. Threats to energy infrastructure from terrorist activity, insurgency and sabotage, with
potential consequences for domestic and international supply. Contrary to the first
scenario, this would involve a non-state actor or other third party disrupting an energy
transport or generation system. Political and security approaches to tackle this problem
therefore differ substantially from the previous (33 pp. 1,2).
According to an assessment done by the World Bank, for North African countries, there are
significant problems with the political instability and violence in Egypt and Algeria. In Algeria,
the ease of starting a business is very low ranking (141st out of 193 countries globally),
registering property (162nd), and paying taxes (166th). In Morocco these included protecting
investors (164th) and employing workers (168th). In Egypt these included closing a business
(128th), enforcing contracts (152nd), and dealing with construction permits (165th). According to
another assessment done by the World Bank on companies having foreign direct investments, it
was shown that corruption is the most significant problem (64% in Algeria and 60% in Egypt)
followed by high taxes (55% in Morocco and 50% in Egypt), and complicated regulations (34%
in Egypt and 30% in Algeria). In most North African countries, the investment climate is heavily
influenced by ineffective bureaucracies. For example, in Morocco, 50% of all surveyed
companies remarked that they needed to employ a full-time staff member just to deal with
bureaucracies. A related major assessment, conducted by the civil society organization
Transparency International, led to the Corruption Perception Index. This indicated significant
problems, ranking Algeria 92nd, Egypt 115th, and Morocco 80th, with worse rankings signifying
higher levels of perceived corruption (32). This shows how importance the political stability is,
whether internal or external, in relation to the investments in renewable energy projects and
electricity export to Europe.
Thus, the study will focus on these previous parameters and link the impact of electricity
generation in the MENA region and electricity export to Europe on them. The following chapter
will illustrate the different methodologies that are applied for the assessment of these parameters.
68
4 Chapter Four: Impact Assessment Methodology
4.1 Economical
4.1.1 GDP
As it was mentioned in chapter three, GDP is a function of country’s private consumption,
investment, government expenditure, export and import. And desert power generation data exists
mainly of three variables which are the year, the installed capacity and the country. Here, there
are three main years in focus: 2012, 2020 and 2050. And there are five MENA focus countries:
Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, 13 other MENA countries and Europe. There are
different models that are used to predict the change in GDP with energy production like the
Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) methodology and Input-Output methodology
(explained in Annex A-2). Due to the complexity of these models, this thesis will focus here on
what can be added to the economy as a result of desert power generation. The construction of
new renewable power plants involves investment cost and operation and maintenance cost. Part
of these costs will be represented as imports since not all the construction parts, operation and
maintenance can be done by local people domestically. Thus, the investment cost and the
operation and maintenance cost fall under the investment component of GDP. The imported part
will be subtracted from these costs. These imports will be an addition to the GDP for Europe,
since Europe will be the complementary part in the construction of this project. Table 4-1 shows
the investment cost and operation and maintenance cost in USD / kW for the three technologies
(Wind, CSP and PV). Table 4-2 shows the domestic share in these costs in percentage. It is
assumed that the operation and maintenance costs will have 90% domestic share in 2012 and
2020. While in 2050, the share in all costs will increase due to know-how transfer. The domestic
share in investment cost in case of wind and CSP will be the higher than in PV due to the
complexity in PV panels manufacturing which are the main parts of the power plant. While in
case of wind it may be still difficult for MENA countries to manufacture the motor only and for
CSP, it will be the same for the receiver and steam turbine manufacture. Table 4-3 shows the
domestic and import share in USD. According to the installed capacity, the addition to the GDP
can be calculated.
69
PV
Investment cost
USD/kW
O&M cost8
USD /kW/a
CSP
Investment cost
USD/kW
O&M cost
USD/kW/a
Wind
Investment cost
USD/kW
O&M cost
USD/kW/a
2007
2012
2015
2020
2050
3746
3036 a
2610
1776
761
66
49 a
38
16
10
2007
2012
2015
2020
2050
7250
6204 a
5576
5044
4160
300
269 a
250
210
155
2007
2012
2015
2020
2050
1255
998
894
51
45
41
1510
1351
58
54 a
a
(25 pp. 54,55)
a Linearly interpolated
Table 4-1: Specific investment, operation and maintenance cost
Source
Domestic share
2012
a
2020
2050
Investment cost
53%
53%
70% c
c
c
O&M cost
90%
90%
100% c
Investment cost
60% b
60% b
80% c
CSP
O&M cost
90% c
90% c
100% c
Investment cost
65% a
65% a
85% c
Wind
O&M cost
90% c
90% c
100% c
Source a (34 p. 15)
b (3 p. 150)
c Assumed
Table 4-2: Domestic share in investment, operation and maintenance cost
PV
8
Operation and maintenance cost
70
a
Domestic cost
Import cost
PV
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
1609
941
533
1427
835
228
Investment cost
USD/kW
44
14
10
5
2
0
O&M cost
USD/kW/a
CSP
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
3722
3026
3328
2482
2018
832
Investment cost
USD/kW
242
189
155
27
21
0
O&M cost
USD/kW/a
Wind
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
878
649
760
473
349
134
Investment cost
USD/kW
48
41
41
5
5
0
O&M cost
USD/kW/a
Table 4-3: Domestic and import specific investment, operation and maintenance cost
4.2 Social
4.2.1 Job generation
This is studied quantitatively. Data about the gross employment effect from wind, PV and CSP is
obtained from the “MED-CSP (2005)” study. The installed capacity in MENA region from these
three technologies is obtained also from the “MED-CSP (2005)” study. Data about both the gross
employment effect and installed capacity is interpolated for the year 2012 because it is missing
in the “MED-CSP (2005)” study. Thus, the number of jobs per MW is simply calculated by
dividing the gross employment by the installed capacity. Table 4-4 shows the number of jobs per
MW for each technology. This can be used for estimation of the available jobs in each country.
Jobs/MW
Wind
PV
CSP
2012
2
7
68
2020
1
5
58
2050
1
1
4
Table 4-4: Jobs per MW installed capacity
71
4.2.2 Know-how transfer
The know-how transfer is based on how much education and training in a certain new
technology is generated in a certain country. It can be a training or education program,
undergraduate, or postgraduate program, research institute or internships in renewable energy
organizations. Actually, it is difficult to quantify such parameter, but it can be correlated to the
planned and prospected numbers of programs and research institute construction in the field of
renewable energy. Some data are taken from EnerMENA study by DLR, the Desertec University
Network (DUN), Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency for the Middle East and North Africa
region (REMENA) master program, the national government strategies in education and training
programs in renewable energy authorities. It is assumed, as shown in table 4-5 that for every
1000 MW installed capacity from renewable energy, there should be provided one training
program, one undergraduate course regarding renewable energy basics, three postgraduate
programs with more field specialization, especially in technical, economical and regulatory
aspects and 10 internships for students in international companies in foreign countries that have
large experience in this field.
Program type
No. Of
programs/1000
MW
Training Undergraduate
program course
1
Postgraduate Internships Total
program
1
3
10
15
Table 4-5: Number of programs per 1000 MW
These programs have the following features:




Training program offered by relevant authority for their employee
Undergraduate course for electrical and mechanical engineering students
Three postgraduate programs relevant to renewable energy; one for technical, one for
economical, and one for policy and laws (regulatory)
10 internships in relevant authorities and companies abroad
72
4.2.3 Grid infrastructure
The study will focus on the expected development in the grid infrastructure in MENA and
Europe. It will show also the possible interconnection between the North and South
Mediterranean countries and their expected costs. Additionally, it will present the grid
requirements for some prospective renewable energy projects in the MENA region.
The construction and upgrading of the grid is site dependent. There are many factors that
contribute in choosing the best site for renewable power generation, but not only the technical
potential. It considers also other environmental and geological factors. In addition to the distance
from the nearest existing grid, cost reduction is also important. To correlate the installed capacity
from renewable in the three scenarios with the expected cost of new grid connection, some
assumptions are made. Based on recent construction of such systems in the MENA region, a cost
of 200,000 USD per km of HVAC line and about 20 million USD total for two substations on
either side of the line are estimated. For AC configurations, it is assumed a bi-pole line with a
power rating of 500 MW and voltage of +/- 400 kV (35). It is assumed also that the average
distance for interconnection is 10 km for grid access and 200 km for the grid interconnection per
500 MW installed capacity. In addition, only one station will be installed costing 10 million
USD. Thus, the total investment cost of a new grid interconnection will be 52 million USD/500
MW installed capacity (10 million USD for one substation + 2 million USD for HVAC line 10
km for grid access + 40 million USD for HVAC line 200 km for grid interconnection). The
specific investment cost is 104,000 USD per MW9.
4.2.4 General infrastructure
The general infrastructure is used as a function of all requirements for the project construction
like new roads, water supply, accommodation during construction and operation and others.
Table 4-6 below illustrates how the general infrastructure will be assessed. It will be evaluated
qualitatively as well as quantitatively. First, for each technology the required input of the
infrastructure will be identified. This is because not all infrastructures are required in the same
way for the three technologies. Second, table 4-6 shows the number of outputs per 1000 MW of
installed capacity from renewable energy in each sector. These sectors are grouped into two
categories; the supply and the demand. The supply represents the infrastructures that are required
for the power plants construction, operation and maintenance. The demand represents the
outcomes that result from the power plant installation in terms of services and products that will
be in the same area of the power plants. These outcomes will consume electricity and energy
from the power plants in efficient mode and will offer services for employees working in the
power plants.
9
It is assumed that the cost does not change with time and there is a linear relationship between the cost and the
capacity of the cable and the station.
73
Sector
Roads
Outputs/1000MW
1
Sector
Water
Supply
1
Industrial Agricultural
Area
Area
1
1
Supply
Housing
Camp
1
Fossil
Fuel
1
Grid
Availability
1
Demand
Educational
Center
1
Housing
City
1
Market
Building
1
Outputs/1000MW
Total No. Of
10
Outputs/1000MW
Table 4-6: Number of outputs for general infrastructure per 1000 MW
The table below shows a description of these sectors. (Own assumptions)
Roads
Water
supply
Housing
camp
Fossil fuel
Grid
availability
Industrial
area
Agricultural
area
Educational
center
Housing city
Market
building
One road linking to the nearest major city
One source sufficient for all water consumption processes
One camp for housing during construction
One unit of fossil fuel sources either in the form of a big fuel storage tank or
pipeline for co-firing and thermal processes
One grid connected to the main grid
Composed of three different industrial firms
This is about 10 Feddans
1 Feddan=4200 m2
One institute for education (school, research center, training center,etc.)
Composed of 20 buildings, each 5 stores, each store has three apartments
One market building
Table 4-7: Output description
74
4.3 Environmental
4.3.1 CO2 emission
The emission of CO2 from the different technologies PV, CSP and wind will be assessed
according to the data obtained from the “MED-CSP (2005)” study as shown in table 4-8 and will
be compared with the emission from coal, natural gas and oil in a mix similar to the actual mix in
each country in 2008 according to International Energy Agency statistics (36). Then, the results
will show the reduction in CO2 emission. Actually the emission from renewable will be only
during construction but not during operation except for CSP. There will be emission from cofiring of backup fuel.
Technology
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Kg/MWh kg/MWh
750
Wind
450
PV
950
CSP
(6)
a Linearly interpolated
Source
2010
12
130
363
2012
12 a
124 a
305 a
2020
12
100
71
2050
12
60
16
Table 4-8: CO2 emission from different source of energy in kg/MWh
4.4 Political
4.4.1 Conflicts
This will be studied qualitatively. According to MENA region’s political status, current and
prospective conflicts will be assessed in relation to the electricity generated from the desert.
Regarding Europe, critics may arise from the import of electricity from MENA desert and
investments there but not internal conflicts in Europe. The electricity generated from the desert
might solve some conflicts as well as evolve others. Examples of conflicts which will be
discussed are the Egypt - Nile basin conflict and the Morocco - Western Sahara conflict.
After designing the methodology for assessment, the following chapter will show the results and
commentary of applying it on the electricity generation scenarios.
75
5 Chapter Five: Results and Discussion
5.1 Economical
5.1.1 GDP
Table 5-1 shows the impact of desert power generation in terms of billion USD that can be added
to GDP in the years 2012, 2020 and 2050. It takes into account the domestic investment,
operation and maintenance costs of desert power for MENA countries as an addition to the GDP.
For Europe, the import portion of investment, operation and maintenance costs is considered an
addition to its GDP. It does not take into consideration the negative impact on GDP due to losses
in the conventional power plants. It can be observed from the table that the addition to the GDP
for total MENA countries in 2050 can be about 1360 billion USD in the most likely scenario
with a range of 1224-1700 billion USD in the other two scenarios. For Europe, the addition can
be about 330 billion USD with a range of 413-298 billion USD in the other two scenarios in
2050. There are other additions to the GDP not mentioned here that come from the electricity
price and multiplier effects due to investments in other industries. This could be for example
indirect generated jobs, new services (educational, health care, etc) and others. The detailed
calculation of GDP impact can be seen in annex A-4, table A-2. Figure 5-1 shows an illustration
of the impact of desert power generation on GDP in EUMENA countries for the three scenarios.
For MENA focus countries, Egypt shows the highest positive impact on GDP where the addition
will be about 275 billion USD in 2050 in the most likely scenario. Morocco and Algeria show
comparable impact of about 120 billion USD in the most likely scenario. Tunisia and Libya show
the lowest impact of about 75 billion USD in the most likely scenario. It can be observed that in
2020 the impact is very low (less than 10 billion USD) in MENA focus countries, this is because
the development of renewable energy projects will be in the early stages and there will be more
dependency on imports. It shows also that the five MENA countries will have impact close to the
impact on the other 13 MENA countries, where in 2050 the addition for total MENA will be
about 1400 billion dollars and for other MENA countries about 800 billion USD. That shows the
importance of these North African countries in the field of renewable energy in the future.
Most likely scenario
Addition to GDP in
Billion USD
Morocco
2012
2020
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2.61
8.27
106.04
3.27
10.33
132.55
2.35
7.44
95.44
Algeria
1.30
2.27
116.84
1.63
2.84
146.05
1.17
2.04
105.16
Tunisia
0.68
2.08
32.51
0.85
2.60
40.63
0.61
1.87
29.26
Libya
1.22
3.75
18.36
1.52
4.69
22.95
1.10
3.37
16.52
Egypt
0.80
5.38
277.41
1.00
6.72
346.76
0.72
4.84
249.67
Other MENA countries
14.44
30.24
809.82
18.06
37.80
1012.27
13.00
27.21
728.84
Total MENA
23.70
49.55
1360.57
29.63
61.94
1700.72
21.33
44.60
1224.52
15.79
32.87
331.16
19.73
41.09
413.95
14.21
29.58
298.04
Europe
Table 5-1: Impact of desert power generation on GDP in EUMENA countries
76
350
300
1800
The most likely scenario
1600
1400
Billion USD
Billion USD
250
200
150
800
50
400
200
2012
Morocco
Libya
300
0
2020 Years 2050
Algeria
Tunisia
Egypt
2012
Other MENA
1800
The best scenario
1600
200
150
1200
1000
800
400
50
200
0
2012
Morocco
Libya
300
The best scenario
600
100
350
2020 Years 2050
Total MENA
1400
250
Billion USD
Billion USD
1000
600
0
0
2020 Years 2050
Algeria
Tunisia
Egypt
2012
Other MENA
1800
The conservative scenario
1600
2020 Years 2050
Total MENA
Europe
The conservative scenario
1400
250
Billion USD
Billion USD
1200
100
350
The most likely scenario
1200
200
1000
150
800
600
100
400
50
200
0
2012
Morocco
Libya
0
2020 Years 2050
Algeria
Tunisia
Egypt
2012
Other MENA
2020 Years
Total MENA
Figure 5-1: Impact of desert power generation on GDP in EUMENA countries
77
2050
Europe
5.2 Social
5.2.1 Job generation
Table 5-2 shows the impact of desert power generation in terms of number of jobs that can be
generated in the years 2012, 2020 and 2050. It takes into account the gross employment
including direct and indirect jobs, foreign and domestic share. For Europe, it considered only the
foreign share including both direct or indirect jobs. It assumes that the foreign share in MENA
jobs will be 60% in Wind and PV and 40% in CSP till 2020. Then, due to growing know-how
and technology transfer, these percentages is estimated to be 30% in Wind and PV and 20% in
CSP in 2050. It does not take into consideration the negative impact on job generation due to
unemployment that could results in the conventional power plants. It can be observed from the
table that the number of jobs that can be generated in total MENA countries in 2050 can be about
1.6 million jobs in the most likely scenario with a range of 1.5-2 million jobs in the other two
scenarios. For Europe, the number of jobs that can be generated in 2050 can be about 350,000
jobs with a range of 320,000-440,000 jobs in the other two scenarios. The detailed calculation of
job generation can be seen in annex B-1, table B-1.
Figure 5-2 shows an illustration of the impact of desert power generation on job generation in
EU/MENA countries for the three scenarios. For MENA focus countries, Egypt shows the
highest impact on employment where the number of jobs will be about 330,000 jobs in 2050 in
the most likely scenario. Morocco and Algeria show comparable impact of about 140,000 jobs in
the most likely scenario in 2050 but Morocco is higher. Tunisia and Libya show the lowest
impact of about 20,000-40,000 jobs in 2050 in the most likely scenario with Tunisia being
higher. It shows also that the number of jobs will grow in the whole MENA region from 0.5 to
1.6 million jobs from 2020 to 2050. That means it will be in 2050 more than three times the
number in 2020. This will be a positive solution for the unemployment which in turn will
produce more internal political stability and affects positively on the economy.
78
Scenario
Number of jobs
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Other MENA
countries
Total MENA
Europe
Most likely scenario
Best scenario
2012
47,096
7,404
2,412
12,640
3,758
2020
122,076
11,415
14,722
49,583
17,161
2050
129,849
140,850
39,700
22,944
332,507
2012
58,870
9,259
3,015
15,800
4,698
163,596
338,916
985,455
246,300
108,900
2012
42,386
6,709
2,168
11,376
3,382
2020
109,868
10,256
13,250
44,625
15,445
2050
116,864
126,765
35,730
20,649
299,256
204,495 423,645 1,231,818
147,236
305,025
886,909
522,632 1,650,789 307,875 653,290 2,063,486
228,319
352,850
136,125 285,399 441,063
Table 5-2: Job generation from the three scenarios
223,570
99,150
473,062
207,103
1,492,903
319,723
79
2020
152,595
14,282
18,403
61,979
21,451
2050
162,311
176,063
49,625
28,680
415,634
Conservative scenario
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
no. of jobs
Thousands
450
400
2012
Algeria
no. of jobs Thousands
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2020 Years 2050
Tunisia Libya Egypt
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2020 Years 2050
Tunisia Libya Egypt
2020 Years 2050
Total MENA
Europe
the best scenario
2012
Other MENA
the conservative scenario
2012
Morocco Algeria
the most likely scenario
2012
Other MENA
the best scenario
Morocco
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2020 Years 2050
Tunisia Libya Egypt
Thousands
no. of jobs Thousands
2012
Morocco Algeria
no. of jobs Thousands
the most likely scenario
no. of jobs
no. of jobs Thousands
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2020 Years 2050
Total MENA
Europe
the conservative scenario
2020 Years 2050
2012
Other MENA
Total MENA
Figure 5-2: Job generation from the three scenarios
80
Europe
5.2.2 Know-how transfer
Table 5-3 shows the impact of desert power generation on know-how transfer. It gives an
indication about the prospective total number of programs that could be generated in MENA
countries during the years 2012, 2020 and 2050. It reveals a progressive development in the
knowledge and experience in the field of renewable energy. It shows also that Egypt has the
highest impact where the number of programs will exceed 1000 by 2050 in all scenarios. This is
because Egypt has the initiative trends towards renewables since the construction of the high
dam.
Figures 5-3 illustrate these numbers for MENA focus countries, other MENA and total MENA
countries in the three scenarios. As it was mentioned in the previous chapter, this total number of
programs is distributed between training, undergraduate, postgraduate programs and internships.
It can be observed that by the end of 2012 Morocco will have the highest number of programs
followed by Algeria, Libya, Egypt and Tunisia. The other MENA countries will have about 150
programs and total MENA will have about 250 programs by the end of 2012. In 2020, Egypt will
have the highest number of programs of about 120 programs followed by Morocco, Algeria,
Libya and Tunisia with the lowest number of programs. The other MENA countries and total
MENA will have number of programs in 2020 of about 350 and 600 respectively. In 2050, Egypt
will still have the highest number of about 1700 programs then Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, and
Libya with the lowest number. The other MENA countries and total MENA will have in 2050
total number of programs of about 5000 and 8000 respectively. The details about impacts on
know-how transfer and some examples of programs in Europe and MENA countries can be
found in annex B-2.
81
Total no. of programs
Scenario
Morocco
Most likely
Best
22
27
2012
67
84
2020
663
829
2050
Algeria
Most likely
Best
15
19
2012
40
50
2020
722
902
2050
Tunisia
Most likely
Best
8
10
2012
33
42
2020
227
283
2050
Libya
Most likely
Best
15
18
2012
37
46
2020
155
193
2050
Egypt
Most likely
Best
12
15
2012
110
138
2020
1673
2091
2050
Other MENA countries
Most likely
Best
139
173
2012
345
431
2020
4730
5913
2050
Total MENA
Most likely
Best
240
300
2012
600
750
2020
8166
10208
2050
Table 5-3: Impact on know-how transfer
82
Conservative
19
60
597
Conservative
14
36
649
Conservative
7
30
204
Conservative
13
33
139
Conservative
11
99
1505
Conservative
125
310
4257
Conservative
216
540
7349
350
2012
25
20
15
10
5
0
Morocco
the best
Algeria
160
200
150
100
50
Tunisia
the
conservative
Libya
the most
the best
the
likely
conservative
Other MENA Total MENA
Egypt
800
2020
140
Total no. of programs
Total no. of programs
250
0
the most likely
120
100
80
60
40
20
2020
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
the most
likely
Morocco Algeria
2500
the best
Tunisia
the most
the best
the
likely
conservative
Other MENA
Total MENA
the
conservative
Libya Egypt
12000
2050
2000
Total no. of programs
Total no. of programs
2012
300
Total no. of programs
Total no. of programs
30
1500
1000
500
0
2050
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
the most
likely
Morocco
Algeria
the best
Tunisia
the
conservative
Libya
the most
the best
the
likely
conservative
Other MENA
Total MENA
Egypt
Figure 5-3: Impact on know-how transfer
83
5.2.3 Grid infrastructure
Figure 5-4 shows the estimated grid infrastructure costs to cope with the newly installed
renewable electricity capacity in MENA focus countries, other MENA countries and total
MENA. It can be observed that by the end of 2012 Morocco will have the highest grid
investments of about 150 million USD followed by Algeria, Libya, Egypt and Tunisia with the
lowest grid investments. The other MENA countries will have grid investments of about 1 billion
USD and total MENA of about 1.7 billion USD by the end of 2012. From 2013 to 2020, Egypt
will have the highest grid investments cost of about 680 million USD followed by Morocco,
Tunisia, Algeria and Libya with the lowest grid investments. The other MENA countries and
total MENA will have grid investments cost in the period between 2013 and 2020 of about 1.4
billion USD and 2.5 billion USD respectively. From 2021 to 2050, Egypt will still have the
highest grid investments cost of about 11 billion USD followed by Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia,
and Libya with the lowest grid investments. The other MENA countries and total MENA will
have grid investments cost in the period between 2021 and 2050 of about 30 billion USD and 50
billion USD respectively. The real value and an overview of the grid infrastructure map in
MENA countries, obtained from the Arab Union of Producers, transporters and distributers of
Electricity (AUPTDE) can be checked in annex B-3.
84
100
50
0
Bio USD
2.5
2.0
Most likely
Best
Grid investments cost
2012
3.5
3.0
1.0
0.5
Conservative
Total MENA
Most likely
Best
10000
Grid investments cost
2021-2050
4000
2000
0
Most likely
Best
Grid investments cost
2013-2020
Conservative
Most likely
Best
70
60
Grid investments cost
2021-2050
50
2.0
40
1.5
30
1.0
20
10
0.0
Other MENA
12000
6000
0.5
0.0
14000
8000
2.5
1.5
7
Grid investments cost
2013-2020
Conservative
Bio USD
Conservative
6
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Mio USD
Grid investments cost
2012
Bio USD
150
Mio USD
Mio USD
200
Other MENA
Conservative
Total MENA
Most likely
Best
0
Other MENA
Conservative
Total MENA
Most likely
Figure 5-4: Grid infrastructure investments cost in MENA focus countries, other MENA countries and total MENA (2012-2050)
85
Best
5.2.4 General infrastructure
Table 5-4 shows the required infrastructure during the construction and operation of the power
plant. Accommodation (housing camp) is not necessary in case of PV because the installation is
not so complicated like the case in Wind and CSP. Water is important for PV and CSP for
cleaning and steam generation in case of CSP. Gas or fossil fuels are required only for CSP as a
backup fuel or in Integrated Solar Combined Cycle (ISCC) power plant.
The infrastructure
Roads
Grid availability
Demand centers
Telecommunications
Accommodation
Water availability
Gas or fossil fuel
Wind
x
x
x
x
x
PV
x
x
x
x
x
CSP
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Table 5-4: General infrastructure requirement for Wind, CSP and PV plants
Table 5-5 gives an indication on the gross output from desert power generation on general
infrastructure throughout the years 2012, 2020 and 2050. It shows also the number of outputs per
each sector described in the previous chapter. They are equally distributed among the sectors but
interpreted differently. For example, in 2050 Egypt will gain 1115 total number of outputs and
112 outputs per sector in the most likely scenario. These 112 outputs are interpreted as the
construction of 112 new roads, 112 new water resources linked to the power plants (e.g. canal
digging, wells, and storage tanks construction), 112 housing camps will be constructed in the
period between 2012 and 2050, 112 different sources of fossil fuel supply, 112 new grid
connection, 336 new industrial firms, 1120 Feddans of new agricultural area, 112 new
educational center, 2240 new energy efficient housing building with a total number of 33600
apartments and 112 market building. The growth of these infrastructures is correlated to the
installed capacity growth rate.
Figures 5-5 below illustrate the impact on general infrastructure on MENA focus countries, the
remaining MENA countries and total MENA countries for the three scenarios. It can be observed
that in 2012 Morocco will have the highest number of outputs while Tunisia will have the lowest
one. In 2020, Egypt will have the highest number of outputs. In 2050, Libya will have the lowest
number of outputs and the other MENA countries and total MENA will have in 2050 total
number of outputs of about 3000 and 6000 respectively. These show a great development in the
deserts and the widespread of the general infrastructure that allows for exploiting it by 2050. A
more details about impacts on general infrastructure can be found in annex B-4 with some
examples on projects.
86
Scenario
Morocco
Total no. of outputs
No. of output per sector
Algeria
Total no. of outputs
No. of output per sector
Tunisia
Total no. of outputs
No. of output per sector
Libya
Total no. of outputs
No. of output per sector
Egypt
Total no. of outputs
No. of output per sector
Other MENA countries
Total no. of outputs
No. of output per sector
Total MENA
Total no. of outputs
No. of output per sector
Most likely
2012
14
1
2012
10
1
2012
5
1
2012
10
1
2012
8
1
2012
92
9
2012
160
16
Best
2020
2050
2012
2020
45
442
18
56
4
44
2
6
2020
2050
2012
2020
27
481
13
33
3
48
1
3
2020
2050
2012
2020
22
151
6
28
2
15
1
3
2020
2050
2012
2020
25
103
12
31
2
10
1
3
2020
2050
2012
2020
74
1115
10
92
7
112
1
9
2020
2050
2012
2020
230
3154
116
287
23
315
12
29
2020
2050
2012
2020
400
5444
200
500
40
544
20
50
Table 5-5: Impact on general infrastructure
87
Conservative
2050
553
55
2050
601
60
2050
189
19
2050
129
13
2050
1394
139
2050
3942
394
2050
6805
681
2012
13
1
2012
9
1
2012
5
0
2012
9
1
2012
7
1
2012
83
8
2012
144
14
2020
40
4
2020
24
2
2020
20
2
2020
22
2
2020
66
7
2020
207
21
2020
360
36
2050
398
40
2050
433
43
2050
136
14
2050
93
9
2050
1004
100
2050
2838
284
2050
4900
490
250
2012
Total no. of outputs
Total no. of outputs
20
15
10
5
0
Morocco
Best
150
100
50
Algeria
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Tunisia
Conservative
Libya
Most likely
Egypt
Best
Other MENA
600
2020
Total no. of outputs
Total no. of outputs
200
0
Most likely
Conservative
Total MENA
2020
500
400
300
200
100
0
Most likely
Morocco
Algeria
1600
Best
Tunisia
Conservative
Libya
Most likely
Egypt
Best
Other MENA
8000
2050
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Conservative
Total MENA
2050
7000
Total no. of outputs
Total no. of outputs
2012
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
Most likely
Morocco
Algeria
Best
Tunisia
Conservative
Libya
Most likely
Egypt
Other MENA
Figure 5-5: Impact on general infrastructure
88
Best
Conservative
Total MENA
5.3 Environmental
5.3.1 CO2 emission
Table 5-6 shows the emission reduction possibilities of CO2 from desert power generation for the
three scenarios. There is a great potential of CO2 emission avoiding in the future from MENA
countries. This offers many carbon certificates for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
project that can assist in financing the installation of renewable energy project in the desert. In
Morocco, the reduction can increase from 17 million tons in 2020 to 150 million tons in 2050 in
the most likely scenario. In Algeria, the reduction can reach about 85 million tons in 2050 in the
most likely scenario. In Tunisia and Libya, the reduction is about 20 to 25 million tons in 2050 in
the most likely scenario which is lower due to lower desert power generation. In Egypt, there is
the largest saving opportunity where it can reach a reduction of about 248 million tons CO2 in
2050 in the most likely scenario.
Figures 5-6 and 5-7 illustrate the figures of the table. Figure 5-5 shows that MENA focus
countries can reduce the CO2 emission by about 500 million tons with a range of 480 to 650
million tons in 2050. Figure 5-6 shows that other MENA countries can have also a good
contribution in reducing the emission where they can reduce about 800 million tons of CO2 with
a range of 700 to 980 million tons in 2050. All MENA countries together can achieve a reduction
of about 1500 million tons with a range of 1300 to 1800 million tons in 2050. This amount
includes the reduction to Europe due to export of electricity which is about 270 million tons. The
details for calculation of CO2 emission reduction is explained in annex C.
Scenario
CO2 emission
reduction (Mio Tons)
Morocco
Most likely
Best
Conservative
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
3.97
17.12
150.12
4.97
21.40
187.64
3.57
15.41
135.10
Algeria
0.70
3.89
85.79
0.88
4.84
107.25
0.63
3.49
77.22
Tunisia
0.33
2.20
25.70
0.41
2.80
32.15
0.30
1.98
23.17
Libya
1.27
5.45
20.27
1.59
6.81
25.34
1.15
4.90
18.24
Egypt
1.18
11.39
247.92
1.48
14.24
309.90
1.07
10.25
223.12
11.08
39.23
784.09
13.85
49.04
980.11
9.97
35.31
705.68
22.74
74.91
1475.28
28.42
93.63
1844.10
20.47
67.42
1327.75
4.2
13.6
267.1
5.3
17.1
333.9
3.8
12.3
240.4
Other MENA
countries
Total MENA
Europe
Table 5-6: CO2 emission reduction
89
2012
2020
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Years 2050
Libya
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
the best scenario
Mio Tons CO2
the most likely scenario
Mio Tons CO2
Mio Tons CO2
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2012
Egypt
Morocco
2020
Algeria
Tunisia
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Years 2050
Libya Egypt
the conservative scenario
2012
Morocco
Algeria
2020
Tunisia
Years 2050
Libya Egypt
Figure 5-6: CO2 emission reduction in MENA focus countries
the most likely scenario
3000
2500
Mio Tons CO2
Mio Tons CO2
3000
3500
2000
1500
1000
1500
1000
0
Years 2050
Europe
2000
1500
0
the conservative scenario
2500
2000
500
2020
Total MENA
3000
2500
500
2012
Other MENA
3500
the best scenario
Mio Tons CO2
3500
1000
500
0
2012
2020
Other MENA
Total MENA
2050
Years
Europe
Figure 5-7: CO2 emission reduction in different regions
90
2012
Other MENA
2020
Years 2050
Total MENA
Europe
5.4 Political
5.4.1 Conflicts
Here, this work will discuss some risks that could evolve as a consequence from the Desertec
project from the critics’ point of view and their solution. Moreover, it will discuss how this
project can solve two of the conflicts in MENA region which are: The Moroccan Western
Sahara’s conflict and Egypt-Nile basin countries conflict.
Perspective risks for EU
Mitigation
Dependence on political By 2050, MENA countries will have the same population size
instable countries in MENA and economic power as Europe and hence similar energy
demand. Thus, it will be more dangerous to Europe to isolate this
region is dangerous
region than to co-operate for sustainable energy supply.
Otherwise, the depletion of resources with growth in population
and energy demand can result in competition for survival and
occupancy by the stronger countries over the weak ones. It is
unlikely that countries which are mutually dependent to become
involved in conflicts. Moreover, as mentioned in the above
impacts of desert power generation, this project will increase the
economy, generate a lot of job opportunities, improve the
technology and education by know-how transfer and exploit the
desert by building new cities, agricultural area and new market
in MENA region. All of these impacts will relief the internal
political instability (37). On the other hand, the EU’s relationship
with North African states in the domain of energy cannot be
regarded as one-sided exporter–consumer dependence. In recent
years the European Union has initiated several policy initiatives
in order to coordinate policies across the Mediterranean more
closely (Barcelona Process, Union for the Mediterranean) and
funded various market integration and harmonization projects
(Med-Ring, RECREEE, MED-EMIP) (33 p. 2).
Terrorist’s attack on power First, this attack is probable in all countries not only in MENA
line or power plants could countries. Second, the target of the Desertec project is that the
affect on Europe’s energy imported percentage from MENA countries from desert power
covers 15% of Europe energy demand by 2050. The future
demand.
energy mix includes 25% reserve capacity for emergencies.
Hence, there would be enough energy available even if all the
desert power plants and the HVDC transmission lines fail
simultaneously, which is highly unlikely to happen. A more
advantage of HVDC over HVAC that energy supply will
continue even if short circuit occurs. In addition, there will not
be one large transmission line or one big power plant, but
hundreds of power plants in a net of renewable energy sources
located on several countries. Thus if one line or one power plant
is attacked, there will be another channels for energy supply. As
91
can be seen in Europe, mutual networks and interconnecting
ensures peace and cohesion amongst countries (37).
Moreover, The possibility of attacks on energy infrastructure by
non-state actors cannot be dismissed entirely, but in the light of
the experience of the past decades and the fact that renewable
energy infrastructure being large is not significantly more
vulnerable to attack than its oil and gas counterparts, such
attacks would be likely to remain rare and their impact limited.
Grid lines are the most vulnerable component of such an
infrastructure, but the impact of an attack would generally be
short-lived. Attacks on electricity generation facilities are
significantly less likely, as such sites can be protected more
easily. Technologies differ somewhat in their vulnerabilities to
attacks and sabotage; a PV facility can be repaired more quickly
than wind or CSP facilities. While off-shore wind parks are
possibly the least vulnerable to attacks, their deployment in
North Africa will be limited to few Moroccan sites due to wind.
The threat of cyber attacks against renewable energy
infrastructure is unlikely to come from small groups of local
insurgents who have discovered individual website hacking as a
new tool of gaining publicity. Instead, such attacks would
probably be initiated by intelligence agencies seeking to identify
weaknesses in the European power sector or in North African
economies (33 pp. 11, 12).
Table 5-7: Perspectives EU risks and mitigation
92
Current conflict
Solution
The Moroccan - Western It is important to look for the stability and security of people
Sahara’s conflict
living in the Western Sahara and neighboring countries. Since
energy resources are the main pillars for this security, thus, if we
have two parties in this area, one for Morocco and the other for
the Polisario (the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic), those
with higher share in the investments of desert power generation
in this area will be the owner and the governor of it.
Egypt - Nile basin countries It is not fair that Egypt and Sudan have the biggest share (about
conflict
90%) of the Nile River. Egypt has a good solar potential. With
growth in population, the present amount of water from the river
will not be enough to match the demand. In this case, Egypt can
make use of CSP plants in sea water desalination. By this means,
water supply will match the demands and even with reserve.
Moreover, the Nile river can be distributed equally per capita
among the 10 countries10 along the Nile River. The Aqua-CSP
study discussed water demands and supply more deeply but it is
consistent with the present share in the Nile River till 2050.
Table 5-8: Current MENA region conflicts and solution
Regarding the status quo of the internal conflicts in MENA countries, it roots from the lower
standards of living, the unemployment, low individual income, the rise in daily living products’
prices and the increase in fuel’s price that consequently increases the transportation tickets’
prices.
The 2010–2011 Tunisian revolution is an intensive campaign of civil resistance, including a
series of street demonstrations taking place in Tunisia. It was like the spark that caused the ice
ball to roll on. The events began in December 2010 and led to the ouster of longtime President
Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011. Street demonstrations and other unrest have continued
to the present day.
The demonstrations were precipitated by high unemployment, food inflation, corruption, a lack
of freedom of speech and other political freedom and poor living conditions. The protests
constituted the most dramatic wave of social and political unrest in Tunisia in three decades and
have resulted in scores of deaths and injuries, most of which were the result of action by police
and security forces against demonstrators. The protests were sparked by the self-immolation of
Mohamed Bouazizi on December 17 and led to the ousting of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali
28 days later on 14 January 2011, when he officially resigned after fleeing to Saudi Arabia,
ending 23 years in power. The protests inspired similar actions throughout the Arab world; the
10
Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan and
Egypt
93
Egyptian revolution began after the events in Tunisia on 25 January 2011 and also led to the
ouster of Egypt's longtime president Hosni Mubarak on 11 February 2011; furthermore, protests
have also taken place in Morocco, Algeria, Yemen, Jordan, Bahrain and elsewhere in the wider
Middle East and North Africa. Till 23rd of February, many protests in Libya also asking for the
change in the governmental system especially after thousands of people are killed and the ouster
of Libya’s longtime president Al Gaddafi. It will most probably end up like what happened in
Tunisia and Egypt. These events surprised all countries all over the world. It can make a great
change in all plans and strategies for investments and co-operation. It also affected greatly the
economy of many MENA countries even those that are not involved in the revolution.
So, the internal stability is as important as the instability between two countries in the region.
Although such conflicts increases the risks of investments in the MENA region and pushes the
gear for implementing this project backward may be lower than the conservative scenario but
this project could be a preventive as well as a corrective measure for the internal conflicts. This
is because it will increase the national income of the countries, provide many job opportunities,
save fossil fuel consumption thus reduce the transportation costs, increase the agricultural area
and the agricultural products in turn, and prevent the sudden cut in electric current that Egypt for
example suffered a lot these days due to the high load on the power plants.
94
6 Chapter Six: Conclusion and Recommendations
6.1
Conclusion on the present work
According to the results obtained from this study, it is concluded that there is a huge treasures in
MENA deserts. These treasures are worth more than fossil fuels or even gold. This is because
they are sustainable and everlasting. However, fossil fuels and gold are depleting. These
treasures are solar and wind energy. They can cause a developmental revolution in MENA
countries in all aspects of their life. Energy means life, movement, growth and development.
Although the investment in these technologies is still high as compared to the conventional
power plants, but according to the learning curve it will be competitive even before 2020,
provided that the market growth and the regulatory and policy environment is supporting. It can
be observed also that MENA focus countries have the highest potential for desert power
generation and export to Europe.
The study shows that he impact on all parameters discussed behaves more positively on both
MENA and Europe countries. The installation of renewable power plants in the desert will
increase the economy in terms of GDP either directly or through multiplier effects. In addition, it
will improve the social parameters where it adds new direct and indirect jobs. It enhances the
technology and know-how transfer which will enable the co-operation between MENA and
European Universities and institutes. Also, it enforces the upgrading of existing grid and
construction of new ones in remote areas to assist in the transmission of electricity between
MENA countries and export to Europe, thus introduce a large market for electricity.
Additionally, it improves the general infrastructure required for the installation of the renewable
power plants and make use of the electricity and heat produced from these power plants in the
introduction of products and services to the desert. Moreover, this project will play an important
role in reducing CO2 emissions in MENA countries and help in avoiding climate change and
global warming which could bring great danger to the world. Politically, it will play a role in
solving many conflicts in MENA countries and make more stability and security in the region
since it will be like a large game in which the candidate who will leave it will lose it.
Although the export portion to Europe is only small amount but the project as a whole will have
a great positive effect on Europe. First, it will guarantee the supply of secure and sustainable
energy. Where the dependency on wind and PV alone in addition to other renewable in Europe is
not enough to meet their increasing demands and these resources are fluctuating and still difficult
to be stored. However, electricity from CSP is more secure and can be easily stored. The
potential of CSP in MENA is in general higher than in Europe. Furthermore, MENA represents a
huge market for manufacturer of renewable energy power plants in Europe. Europe has a larger
experience and better knowledge than MENA in the manufacturing of wind turbines, PV panels,
invertors and CSP receivers, steam turbines and collectors. In addition, Europe has the know-
95
how also in the operation and maintenance of these plants. All of these will add to Europe more
benefits that are represented in GDP, job generation, CO2 emission reduction and secure
electricity supply.
It is not difficult for MENA countries to achieve the best scenario which will bring more
benefits, but even if they keep on the conservative scenario, there will be still substantial
benefits. They have to think more about the green future. This project can be succeeded if all
levels in the community are participating in it. The governments put the regulatory framework;
the investors finance it and the public consume electricity and energy efficiently. There can be
hope only for a society which acts as one big family, not as many separate ones.
6.2
Recommendations for future work
The study does not take into consideration all the negative impacts that can results from the
installation of renewable power plants in MENA deserts. For example, the negative impacts on
fossil fuel utility. In addition, the GDP parameter can be analyzed more in details by using the
input-output model described in annex A-2. The job effects should be evaluated for both directly
and indirectly related to power generation and how this will affect on unemployment crisis in
these countries. The grid infrastructure upgrading should be analyzed more accurately with site
specific technical measurements and forecasting the change in investments cost with time. The
general infrastructure should be assessed in more details and correlated to site specific projects.
The negative environmental impact should be evaluated in addition to the impact on other
GHGs. The other MENA and European countries should be studied in more details individually.
Other renewable sources like biomass, geothermal and tidal energy can be involved. The
different storage mechanisms and their comparison from the technical and economic point of
view can be added to the study. Detailed assessments on water desalination possibilities could
also be done. Due to climate change and the rise in temperature in most MENA countries, there
is an increasing trend towards the usage of air conditioning units. These units consume too much
electricity and increase the load during summer. One more advantage of the CSP plants, it can be
used as a source for electricity, water by desalination, heat and cooling by solar absorption
technique. MENA region has high solar potential and high CSP potential. Thus, MENA
countries can save a lot of electricity and fuels and consume their free solar energy for cooling.
96
7 Chapter Seven: References
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2. Desertec countries. [pptx document] Munich, Germany : Dii, 2010.
3. Trieb, Franz. MED-CSP. Stuttgart : DLR, 2005.
4. Knoll, Beate. PHOTON Europe GmbH. PHOTON Europe GmbH Web site. [Online] August
25, 2010. [Cited: December 10, 2010.] http://photon.de/photon/photon-aktion_installleistung.htm.
5. Neddermann, B. Status der Windenergienutzung in Deutschland. s.l. : DEWI GmbH, 2010.
6. Trieb, Franz. DLR. DLR website. [Online] April 16, 2005. [Cited: August 2, 2010.]
http://www.dlr.de/tt/MED-CSP.
7. —. DLR. DLR web site. [Online] June 2006. [Cited: August 2, 2010.]
http://www.dlr.de/tt/TRANS-CSP.
8. At the cross roads: Energy futures for North Africa. Mason, Michael and Kumetat, Dennis.
London : Energy Policy, 2010. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.12.031.
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Water and Environment, Morocco Web site. [Online] June 2010. [Cited: December 3, 2010.]
www.mem.gov.ma.
10. Algerian renewable energy assessment: The challenge of sustainability. Boudghene
Stambouli, Amine. Oran : Energy Policy, 2010. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.005.
11. Ministry of Energy and Mining, Algeria. Ministry of Energy and Mining, Algeria Web site.
[Online] September 2005. [Cited: August 10, 2010.] http://www.memalgeria.org/english/index.php?page=projet-hybride-solaire---gaz.
12. Richter, Christoph, Teske, Sven and Short, Rebecca. Concentrating solar power global
outlook 2009. s.l. : Greenpeace international, SolarPaces, ESTELA, 2009.
13. Ouali, Mohand. Magharebia. Magharebia Web site. [Online] December 14, 2010. [Cited:
December 30, 2010.]
http://www.magharebia.com/cocoon/awi/xhtml1/en_GB/features/awi/features/2010/12/14/featur
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100
Annex A: GDP
A-1: GDP expenditure approach components definition
Consumption “C” is normally the largest GDP component in the economy, consisting of private
household final consumption expenditure in the economy. These personal expenditures fall under
one of the following categories: durable goods, non-durable goods, and services. Examples
include food, rent, jewelry, gasoline, and medical expenses but do not include the purchase of
new housing.
Investment “I” includes business investments e.g. in equipments and does not include
exchanges of existing assets. Examples include construction of a new mine, purchase of
software, or purchase of machinery and equipment for a factory. Spending by households (not
government) on new houses is also included in Investment. In contrast to its colloquial meaning,
'Investment' in GDP does not mean purchases of financial products. Buying financial products is
classed as 'saving', as opposed to investment. This avoids double-counting: if one buys shares in
a company, and the company uses the money received to buy plants, equipment, etc. The amount
will be counted toward GDP when the company spends the money on those things. Counting it
when one gives it to the company would result in counting it twice the amount that only
corresponds to one group of products. Buying bonds or stocks is a swapping of deeds, a transfer
of claims on future production, not directly an expenditure on products.
Government spending “G” is the sum of government expenditures on final goods and services.
It includes salaries of public servants, purchase of weapons for the military, and any investment
expenditure by a government. It does not include any transfer payments, such as social security
or unemployment benefits.
Exports “E” represent gross exports. GDP captures the amount a country produces, including
goods and services produced for other nations' consumption, therefore exports are added.
Imports “I” represent gross imports. Imports are subtracted since imported goods will be
included in the terms government spending, investment, or consumption, and must be deducted
to avoid counting foreign supply as domestic.(38)
101
A-2: Impact on GDP assessments model
Structural Vector autoregression (SVAR)
It is an econometric model used to capture the evolution and the interdependencies between
multiple time series, generalizing the univariate AR models. All the variables in a VAR are
treated symmetrically by including for each variable an equation explaining its evolution based
on its own lags and the lags of all the other variables in the model. Based on this feature,
Christopher Sims advocates the use of VAR models as a theory-free method to estimate
economic relationships, thus being an alternative to the "incredible identification restrictions" in
structural models(39).
The Input-Output model:
In economics, an input-output model uses a matrix representation of a nation's (or a region's)
economy to predict the effect of changes in one industry on others and by consumers,
government, and foreign suppliers on the economy. Wassily Leontief (1905-1999) is credited
with the development of this analysis. Francois Quesnay developed a cruder version of this
technique called Tableau économique. Leontief won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic
Sciences for his development of this model. And, in essence, Léon Walras's work Elements of
Pure Economics on general equilibrium theory is both a forerunner and generalization of
Leontief's seminal concept. Leontief's contribution was that he was able to simplify Walras's
piece so that it could be implemented empirically. The International Input-Output Association is
dedicated to advancing knowledge in the field of input-output study, which includes
"improvements in basic data, theoretical insights and modeling, and applications, both traditional
and novel, of input-output techniques."
Input-output depicts inter-industry relations of an economy. It shows how the output of one
industry is an input to each other industry. Leontief put forward the display of this information in
the form of a matrix. A given input is typically enumerated in the column of an industry and its
outputs are enumerated in its corresponding row. This format, therefore, shows how dependent
each industry is on all others in the economy both as customer of their outputs and as supplier of
their inputs. Each column of the input-output matrix reports the monetary value of an industry's
inputs and each row represents the value of an industry's outputs. Suppose there are three
industries. Column 1 reports the value of inputs to Industry 1 from Industries 1, 2, and 3.
Columns 2 and 3 do the same for those industries. Row 1 reports the value of outputs from
Industry 1 to Industries 1, 2, and 3. Rows 2 and 3 do the same for the other industries.
While most uses of the input-output analysis focuses on the matrix set of inter-industry
exchanges, the actual focus of the analysis from the perspective of most national statistical
agencies, which produce the tables, is the benchmarking of gross domestic product. Input-output
tables therefore are an instrumental part of national accounts. As suggested above, the core input102
output table reports only intermediate goods and services that are exchanged among industries.
But an array of row vectors, typically aligned below this matrix, record non-industrial inputs by
industry like payments for labor; indirect business taxes; dividends, interest, and rents; capital
consumption allowances (depreciation); other property-type income (like profits); and purchases
from foreign suppliers (imports). At a national level, although excluding the imports, when
summed this is called "gross product originating" or "gross domestic product by industry."
Another array of column vectors is called "final demand" or "gross product consumed." This
displays columns of spending by households, governments, changes in industry stocks, and
industries on investment, as well as net exports. In any case, by employing the results of an
economic census which asks for the sales, payrolls, and material/equipment/service input of each
establishment, statistical agencies back into estimates of industry-level profits and investments
using the input-output matrix as a sort of double-accounting framework.
The mathematics of input-output economics is straightforward, but the data requirements are
enormous because the expenditures and revenues of each branch of economic activity have to be
represented. As a result, not all countries collect the required data and data quality varies, even
though a set of standards for the data's collection has been set out by the United Nations through
its System of National Accounts (SNA): the replacement for the current 1993 SNA standard is
pending. Because the data collection and preparation process for the input-output accounts is
necessarily labor and computer intensive, input-output tables are often published long after the
year in which the data were collected--typically as much as 5-7 years after. Moreover, the
economic "snapshot" that the benchmark version of the tables provides of the economy's crosssection is typically taken only once every few years, at best, although many developed countries
estimate input-output accounts annually and with much greater recency (40).
103
A-3: GDP values in MENA countries and Europe
GDP
USD
2008
2012
2020
2050
GDP
growth
%/y
Algeria
166,545,000,000
190,860,570,000
239,491,710,000
421,858,485,000
3.65%
Bahrain
21,902,892,584
24,706,462,835
30,313,603,336
51,340,380,217
3.20%
Egypt
162,283,000,000
185,976,318,000
233,362,954,000
411,062,839,000
3.65%
Iraq
31,313,406,342
45,072,720,488
56,984,362,411
86,523,531,348
3.20%
Israel
134,247,000,000
145,844,000,000
166,990,000,000
202,101,000,000
3.20%
Jordan
21,237,672,807
23,956,094,926
29,392,939,165
49,781,105,060
3.20%
KSA
468,800,000,000
528,806,400,000
648,819,200,000
1,098,867,200,000
3.20%
Kuwait
148,024,000,000
166,971,072,000
204,865,216,000
346,968,256,000
3.20%
Lebanon
29,264,273,985
33,010,101,055
40,501,755,195
68,595,458,221
3.20%
Libya
93,167,701,863
106,770,186,335
133,975,155,279
235,993,788,819
3.65%
Morocco
88,882,967,742
101,859,881,032
127,813,707,613
225,140,557,290
3.65%
Oman
42,970,923,623.26
48,471,201,847
59,471,758,295
100,723,844,973
3.20%
Qatar
73,314,808,876.01
82,699,104,412
101,467,695,484
171,849,912,005
3.20%
Syrian
55,204,301,075
62,270,451,613
76,402,752,688
129,398,881,720
3.20%
Tunisia
40,308,984,660
46,194,096,420
57,964,319,941
102,102,658,144
3.65%
Turkey
734,853,000,000
828,914,184,000
1,017,036,552,000
1,722,495,432,000
3.20%
UAE
205,051,176,000
231,297,726,528
283,790,827,584
480,639,956,544
3.20%
Yemen
26,576,054,478
29,977,789,451
36,781,259,398
62,294,271,696
3.20%
2,115,823,634,776
2,386,649,060,028
2,928,299,910,530
4,959,490,599,916
3.20%
2,667,011,289,041
3,018,310,111,815
3,720,907,757,363
6,355,648,928,169
3.43%
Europe
14,783,291,614,000
15,593,415,995,000
17,302,454,388,000
24,887,850,391,000
1.37%
Reference
See pages 61 and 62
Other
MENA
countries
Total
MENA
Table A-1: GDP in MENA and European countries
104
A-4: Impact on GDP in details
Morocco
Domestic cost Mio
USD
Most likely scenario
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
Investment cost
38.62
451.81
5327.00
48.27
564.77
6658.75
34.76
406.63
4794.30
O&M cost
1.05
6.91
100.00
1.31
8.64
125.00
0.94
6.22
90.00
Investment cost
1548.46
6052.80
90854.40
1935.57
7566.00
113568.00
1393.61
5447.52
81768.96
O&M cost
100.62
378.00
4231.50
125.78
472.50
5289.38
90.56
340.20
3808.35
Investment cost
877.91
1297.40
5243.31
1097.38
1621.75
6554.14
790.12
1167.66
4718.98
O&M cost
48.26
81.00
282.90
60.33
101.25
353.63
43.44
72.90
254.61
Total Billion USD
2.61
8.27
106.04
3.27
10.33
132.55
2.35
7.44
95.44
PV
CSP
Wind
Algeria
Domestic cost Mio
USD
Most likely scenario
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
Investment cost
569.61
960.11
4421.41
712.82
1200.13
5526.76
513.30
864.10
3979.27
O&M cost
15.45
14.69
83.00
19.34
18.36
103.75
13.92
13.22
74.70
Investment cost
126.56
202.77
99840.00
158.20
254.22
124800.00
115.39
181.58
89856.00
O&M cost
8.22
12.66
4650.00
10.28
15.88
5812.50
7.50
11.34
4185.00
Investment cost
550.45
1018.46
7447.02
688.28
1272.75
9308.78
495.14
916.61
6702.32
O&M cost
30.26
63.59
401.80
37.84
79.46
502.25
27.22
57.23
361.62
Total Billion USD
1.30
2.27
116.84
1.63
2.84
146.05
1.17
2.04
105.16
PV
CSP
Wind
Tunisia
Domestic cost Mio
USD
Most likely scenario
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
Investment cost
444.11
338.86
1598.10
555.13
423.58
1997.63
399.05
304.97
1438.29
O&M cost
12.05
5.18
30.00
15.06
6.48
37.50
10.83
4.67
27.00
Investment cost
0.00
544.75
26291.20
0.00
680.94
32864.00
0.00
490.28
23662.08
O&M cost
0.00
34.02
1224.50
0.00
42.53
1530.63
0.00
30.62
1102.05
Investment cost
210.70
1089.82
3191.58
263.37
1362.27
3989.48
189.63
980.83
2872.42
O&M cost
11.58
68.04
172.20
14.48
85.05
215.25
10.42
61.24
154.98
Total Billion USD
0.64
2.08
32.51
0.80
2.60
40.63
0.58
1.87
29.26
PV
CSP
Wind
Libya
Most likely scenario
Best scenario
105
Conservative scenario
Domestic cost Mio
USD
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
Investment cost
32.18
141.19
1278.48
40.23
176.49
1598.10
28.96
127.07
1150.63
O&M cost
0.87
2.16
24.00
1.09
2.70
30.00
0.79
1.94
21.60
Investment cost
372.23
2421.12
13312.00
465.28
3026.40
16640.00
335.00
2179.01
11980.80
O&M cost
24.19
151.20
620.00
30.23
189.00
775.00
21.77
136.08
558.00
Investment cost
746.22
973.05
2963.61
932.78
1216.31
3704.51
671.60
875.75
2667.25
O&M cost
41.02
60.75
159.90
51.28
75.94
199.88
36.92
54.68
143.91
Total Billion USD
1.22
3.75
18.36
1.52
4.69
22.95
1.10
3.37
16.52
PV
CSP
Wind
Egypt
Domestic cost Mio
USD
Most likely scenario
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
Investment cost
22.53
28.24
9215.71
28.16
35.30
11519.64
20.27
25.41
8294.14
O&M cost
0.61
0.43
173.00
0.76
0.54
216.25
0.55
0.39
155.70
Investment cost
74.45
363.17
238950.40
93.06
453.96
298688.00
67.00
326.85
215055.36
O&M cost
4.84
22.68
11129.00
6.05
28.35
13911.25
4.35
20.41
10016.10
Investment cost
658.43
4670.64
17021.76
823.04
5838.30
21277.20
592.59
4203.58
15319.58
O&M cost
36.20
291.60
918.40
45.25
364.50
1148.00
32.58
262.44
826.56
Total Billion USD
0.80
5.38
277.41
1.00
6.72
346.76
0.72
4.84
249.67
PV
CSP
Wind
Other MENA
countries
Domestic cost Bio
USD
Most likely scenario
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
Investment cost
4.75
7.78
36.21
5.94
9.73
45.26
4.27
7.01
32.59
O&M cost
0.13
0.12
0.68
0.16
0.15
0.85
0.12
0.11
0.61
Investment cost
4.58
14.62
713.22
5.72
18.27
891.53
4.12
13.16
641.90
O&M cost
0.30
0.91
33.22
0.37
1.14
41.52
0.27
0.82
29.90
Investment cost
4.45
6.40
25.14
5.56
8.00
31.42
4.00
5.76
22.62
O&M cost
0.24
0.40
1.36
0.31
0.50
1.70
0.22
0.36
1.22
Total Billion USD
14.44
30.24
809.82
18.06
37.80
1012.27
13.00
27.21
728.84
PV
CSP
Wind
Total MENA
Domestic cost Bio
USD
Most likely scenario
2012
2020
2050
Best scenario
2012
PV
106
2020
Conservative scenario
2050
2012
2020
2050
Investment cost
7.56
12.52
58.01
9.45
15.65
72.51
6.81
11.27
52.21
O&M cost
0.21
0.19
1.09
0.26
0.24
1.36
0.18
0.17
0.98
Investment cost
6.70
22.09
1182.11
8.38
27.62
1477.63
6.03
19.88
1063.90
O&M cost
0.44
1.38
55.06
0.54
1.72
68.82
0.39
1.24
49.55
Investment cost
8.34
12.58
61.02
10.43
15.73
76.27
7.51
11.33
54.92
O&M cost
0.46
0.79
3.29
0.57
0.98
4.12
0.41
0.71
2.96
Total Billion USD
23.70
49.55
1360.57
29.63
61.94
1700.72
21.33
44.60
1224.52
CSP
Wind
Europe
Foreign cost Bio
USD
Most likely scenario
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
Investment cost
6.71
11.10
24.86
8.38
13.88
31.08
6.04
9.99
22.38
O&M cost
0.02
0.02
0.00
0.03
0.03
0.00
0.02
0.02
0.00
Investment cost
4.47
14.73
295.53
5.58
18.41
369.41
4.02
13.26
265.97
O&M cost
0.05
0.15
0.00
0.06
0.19
0.00
0.04
0.14
0.00
Investment cost
4.49
6.78
10.77
5.61
8.47
13.46
4.04
6.10
9.69
O&M cost
0.05
0.09
0.00
0.06
0.11
0.00
0.05
0.08
0.00
Total Billion USD
15.79
32.87
331.16
19.73
41.09
413.95
14.21
29.58
298.04
PV
CSP
Wind
Table: A-2: Impact on GDP in details
107
Annex B: Social parameters
B-1 Job generation per technology
Morocco
Job generated (no. of jobs)
Most Likely scenario
2012
2020
Best scenario
2050
2012
2020
Conservative scenario
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
2000
2777
6181
2500
3471
7726
1800
2499
5563
CSP
44928
116795
109436
56160
145993
136794
40435
105115
98492
PV
168
2505
14233
210
3131
17791
151
2254
12809
Total
47096
122076
129849
58870
152595
162311
42386
109868
116864
Most Likely scenario
Algeria
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
Job generated (no. of jobs)
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
1254
2180
8778
1568
2724
10973
1128
1962
7900
CSP
3672
3913
120259
4590
4905
150324
3348
3504
108233
PV
2478
5322
11813
3101
6653
14767
2233
4790
10632
Total
7404
11415
140850
9259
14282
176063
6709
10256
126765
Most Likely scenario
Tunisia
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
Job generated (no. of jobs)
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
480
2333
3762
600
2916
4703
432
2099
3386
CSP
0
10512
31668
0
13139
39585
0
9460
28501
PV
1932
1878
4270
2415
2348
5337
1736
1691
3843
Total
2412
14722
39700
3015
18403
49625
2168
13250
35730
Most Likely scenario
Libya
Job generated (no. of jobs)
2012
2020
Best scenario
2050
2012
2020
Conservative scenario
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
1700
2083
3493
2125
2603
4367
1530
1874
3144
CSP
10800
46718
16035
13500
58397
20043
9720
42046
14431
PV
140
783
3416
175
978
4270
126
704
3074
Total
12640
49583
22944
15800
61979
28680
11376
44625
20649
Most Likely scenario
Egypt
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
Job generated (no. of jobs)
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
1500
9997
20065
1875
12496
25081
1350
8997
18058
CSP
2160
7008
287820
2700
8760
359775
1944
6307
259038
PV
98
157
24623
123
196
30778
88
141
22160
Total
3758
17161
332507
4698
21451
415634
3382
15445
299256
Most Likely scenario
Other MENA countries
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
Job generated (no. of
jobs/1000)
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
10
14
30
13
17
37
9
12
27
CSP
133
282
859
166
353
1074
120
254
773
PV
21
43
97
26
54
121
19
39
87
Total
164
339
985
204
424
1232
147
305
887
108
Most Likely scenario
Total MENA
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
Job generated (no. of
jobs/1000)
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
19
27
72
24
34
90
19
27
72
CSP
194
426
1424
243
533
1780
175
384
1281
PV
33
69
155
41
87
194
30
62
139
Total
246
523
1651
308
653
2063
224
473
1493
Most Likely scenario
Europe
Best scenario
Conservative scenario
Job generated (no. of
jobs/1000)
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
11
16
22
14
20
27
11
16
22
CSP
78
171
285
97
213
356
70
153
256
PV
20
42
46
25
52
58
18
37
42
Total
109
228
353
136
285
441
99
207
320
Table B-1: Job generation from desert power
109
B-2 Know-how transfer details
Scenario
Morocco
2012
2020
2050
Algeria
2012
2020
2050
Tunisia
2012
2020
2050
Libya
2012
2020
2050
Egypt
2012
2020
2050
Other
MENA
countries
2012
2020
2050
Total
MENA
2012
2020
2050
Scenario
Morocco
Most likely
Training
program
1
4
44
Training
program
1
3
48
Training
program
1
2
15
Training
program
1
2
10
Training
program
1
7
112
Training
program
Undergraduate
course
1
4
44
Undergraduate
course
1
3
48
Undergraduate
course
1
2
15
Undergraduate
course
1
2
10
Undergraduate
course
1
7
112
Undergraduate
course
Postgraduate
program
4
13
133
Postgraduate
program
3
8
144
Postgraduate
program
2
7
45
Postgraduate
program
3
7
31
Postgraduate
program
2
22
335
Postgraduate
program
Internships
Total
14
45
442
Internships
22
67
663
Total
10
27
481
Internships
15
40
722
Total
5
22
151
Internships
8
33
227
Total
10
25
103
Internships
15
37
155
Total
8
74
1115
Internships
12
110
1673
Total
9
23
315
Training
program
16
40
544
9
23
315
Undergraduate
course
16
40
544
92
230
3154
Internships
139
345
4730
Total
160
400
5444
240
600
8166
Training
program
Undergraduate
course
28
69
946
Postgraduate
program
48
120
1633
Best
Postgraduate
program
Internships
Total
110
2012
2020
2050
Algeria
2012
2020
2050
Tunisia
2012
2020
2050
Libya
2012
2020
2050
Egypt
2012
2020
2050
Other
MENA
countries
2012
2020
2050
Total
MENA
2012
2020
2050
Scenario
Morocco
2012
2020
2050
Algeria
2012
2
6
55
Training
program
1
3
60
Training
program
1
3
19
Training
program
1
3
13
Training
program
1
9
139
Training
program
2
6
55
Undergraduate
course
1
3
60
Undergraduate
course
1
3
19
Undergraduate
course
1
3
13
Undergraduate
course
1
9
139
Undergraduate
course
5
17
166
Postgraduate
program
4
10
180
Postgraduate
program
2
8
57
Postgraduate
program
4
9
39
Postgraduate
program
3
28
418
Postgraduate
program
18
56
553
Internships
27
84
829
Total
13
33
601
Internships
19
50
902
Total
6
28
189
Internships
10
42
283
Total
12
31
129
Internships
18
46
193
Total
10
92
1394
Internships
15
138
2091
Total
12
29
394
Training
program
20
50
681
12
29
394
Undergraduate
course
20
50
681
116
287
3942
Internships
173
431
5913
Total
200
500
6805
300
750
10208
Training
program
1
4
40
Training
program
1
Undergraduate
course
1
4
40
Undergraduate
course
1
35
86
1183
Postgraduate
program
60
150
2042
Conservative
Postgraduate
program
4
12
119
Postgraduate
program
3
Internships
Total
13
40
398
Internships
19
60
597
Total
9
14
111
2020
2050
Tunisia
2012
2020
2050
Libya
2012
2020
2050
Egypt
2
43
Training
program
0
2
14
Training
program
1
2
9
Training
program
1
7
100
Training
program
2
43
Undergraduate
course
0
2
14
Undergraduate
course
1
2
9
Undergraduate
course
1
7
100
Undergraduate
course
7
130
Postgraduate
program
1
6
41
Postgraduate
program
3
7
28
Postgraduate
program
2
20
301
Postgraduate
program
24
433
Internships
36
649
Total
5
20
136
Internships
7
30
204
Total
9
22
93
Internships
13
33
139
Total
7
11
2012
66
99
2020
1004
1505
2050
Other
Internships
Total
MENA
countries
8
8
25
83
125
2012
21
21
62
207
310
2020
284
284
851
2838
4257
2050
Total
Training
Undergraduate
Postgraduate
Internships
Total
MENA
program
course
program
14
14
43
144
216
2012
36
36
108
360
540
2020
490
490
1470
4900
7349
2050
N.B. The total number of programs is not a summation of individual programs, so it may be
higher or lower due to approximation
Table B-2 detailed impact on know-how transfer
This study presents the results of know-how transfer as an impact of desert power generation
according to the strategies of MENA and European countries. It shows that this know-how
transfer can be accomplished through either the formation of clusters between MENA countries
alone or between MENA and EU countries. This is facilitated by the establishment of centers or
agencies specified in renewable energy and energy efficiency, for instance, NREA in EGYPT,
ADEREE in Morocco. Developing an industrial capacity in the renewable energy will require
significant efforts from MENA countries in order to acquire operational know-how in terms of
producing equipment, operating and maintaining the renewable energy installations. In addition
to developing local businesses in the clean energy sector, manufacturing a significant share of
components locally may also reduce the investment costs of renewable energy projects. Thereby,
112
it contributes to addressing the issues related to the competitiveness of renewable energy
technologies. Know-how transfer plays a key role in:




Gaining acceptance of projects by policy makers in MENA countries due to its industrial
development and job creation potential
Reducing project costs by manufacturing part of the components required on-site
Ensuring the development of proper operation and maintenance (O&M) capacities locally
which will be called upon during the lifetime of the project
Reinforcing cooperation between clusters and research centers from the EU and from
MENA countries
Several countries or regions are developing strategies to establish clusters or industrial parks
dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency, although in most cases these initiatives
seem to be at feasibility study stage. The initiatives identified in the course of the study are
presented below:
Country
Morocco
Activity
A study has been recently completed to analyze the opportunity to set up an
industrial park dedicated to solar, wind and energy efficiency components
manufacturing close to Oujda (“Kyoto Park”). The intent of the project is to
establish a regional hub aiming to supply the domestic market but focusing mostly
on regional markets (MENA and EU). This initiative benefits from the support of the
Ministry of Industry which sees an opportunity to develop manufacturing jobs in a
new dynamic sector
A solar photovoltaic industrial park project in Tiaret is currently under study, in
Algeria
partnership with the local university
A current initiative aims at revamping the existing Borj Cedria high institute of
Tunisia
environmental science and technology (linked to Carthage University) which has
been implemented with the support of external aid and focuses on renewable energy
and energy efficiency technologies.
It has launched, with the support of the EU (EU-Egypt Innovation Fund – EEIF), the
Egypt
Innovation Research and Development program. This initiative promotes
partnerships between EU and Egyptian organizations for applied research, partly in
renewable energy (mainly solar) technologies
It intends to develop in Maan (South Jordan) an industrial park and research centre
Jordan
dedicated to solar power. The project would build on nearby projects for establishing
large scale solar PV and solar CSP projects
Table B-3: Sample projects for know-how transfer (26 pp. 83,84)
For example, in Egypt in the context of NREA’s mandate in the field of education, training and
information dissemination, two well equipped facilities at NREA premises at Cairo and NREA
113
site at Hurghada were established. The facilities play an important role as centers for general and
specialized training programs with high-qualified trainers’ staff. The training programs can be
classified into:




General training programs (for two weeks) directed to students in the universities and
public sector for the purpose of awareness.
Specialized programs directed to engineers and technicians working in the field.
Training programs for NREA’ staff to improve the professional skills.
Summer training program for universities students.
Activities during 2007/2008:





2 programs for wind energy resources and wind energy projects were performed for 8
trainees from Yemen.
Programs on wind energy, solar thermal & PV applications were performed for 54
trainees from Nile Basin Countries.
Summer course for the students in the Engineering section in the universities.
Several training programs in cooperation with Hans Ziedal Foundation at Governorates
of Port Said, Alexandria and Al Gharbia.
Participation in the relevant local, regional and international events.
This shows how Egypt is progressing in know-how transfer (18 p. 19).
Interestingly, from the European side, a number of networking initiatives are being implemented
between clusters dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency development. For
example, in the framework of the European Commission-supported Eco-Technologies Action
Plan (ETAP), the ECREINetwork (European clusters and regions for eco-innovation and ecoinvestments network) project brings together 6 European regions (Rhône- Alpes, Lombardia,
Bade-Wurttemberg, Andalucía, Ile-de-France and Malopolska) in order to share knowledge on
financial instruments for SMEs (small and medium enterprises) which seek to invest in ecoinnovative projects. Over the long term, ECREINetwork aims to become the reference network
for regional support in the field of eco-innovation. The European Commission also supports the
establishment of regional “Green Energy Clusters” in order to facilitate the deployment of green
energy technology and services. This initiative aims at supporting the creation of 4 regional
Green Energy Clusters, to strengthen the existing EcoEnergy Cluster in Upper Austria, to
increase the business development of market players involved in these clusters and to establish a
platform of best practice. Several renewable energy and energy efficiency clusters in Europe
have engaged in networking initiatives to foster collaboration on joint research programs. This is
the case in France where four major clusters focusing on renewable energy and energy efficiency
114
(CAPENERGIES11, DERBI, S2E2, TENERRDIS) are in the process of formalizing a national
network of “eco-technology” clusters, under the framework of the “ecotech 2012” national plan.
The EUROPOLES project, which aims at supporting technology partnerships of SMEs and
clusters in the field of energy and environment, is supported by the European Commission and
by several partners in France (OSEO, ADEME ”Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de
l'Energie” , CEA) and in Germany (Kompetenznetze). The recent initiative from the European
Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) to establish a Knowledge and Innovation
Community (KIC) in the field of sustainable energy early 2010 might also provide new models
for enhancing innovation in the renewable energy and energy efficiency field. KICs are
innovative ‘webs of excellence’: highly integrated partnerships that bring together education,
technology, research, business and entrepreneurship. The first two to three KICs will address
themes within the following fields:



Sustainable energy
Climate change mitigation and adaptation
Future information and communication society.
The KICs will promote the production, dissemination and exploitation of new knowledge
products and best practices in the innovation sector, transforming the results of higher education
and research activities into commercially exploitable innovation. The obligatory inclusion of the
business and higher education dimensions will ensure a constant focus on delivering and
disseminating usable outcomes. In return, participating research and education organizations will
benefit from the prestige and visibility of the EIT, increasing their capacity to attract the best
possible talents ("brain-gain"). KICs will be highly integrated partnerships, building on existing
excellent partners or centers. They will be trans- or interdisciplinary in nature and may
incorporate programs or projects already in place through Europe. They shall have substantial
overall autonomy to define their internal organization and composition, as well as their precise
agenda and working methods. In particular, KICs shall aim to be open to new members from
Europe - and beyond - whenever these members add value to the partnerships. However, the
minimum condition to form a KIC is the participation of at least three partner organizations,
established in at least two different European Member States.
Supporting efforts to improve quality standards for renewable energy and energy efficiency
equipment as well as services should be considered as a key factor to develop demand for these
technologies. These developments will require:

Implementing quality labels applying on equipment as well as services, requiring the
training of renewable energy and energy efficiency manufacturers and installers. This
approach will require capacity-building and transfer of know-how from other areas
11
The first geographical target for Capenergies is the Mediterranean Region with plans for other countries already in
the pipeline, amongst which: Algeria, India, Spain, Mexico, Israel, Italy, Germany, California, Great Britain and
Tunisia, involved in these fact finding meetings.
115


Setting-up testing facilities and equipment. The analysis of the national/regional context
will define which testing activities can be carried out by dedicated renewable energy and
energy efficiency agencies and or by professional certification centers and specialized
laboratories.
Developing of bi- or multicultural training programs, based on current initiatives from
MENA countries (CDER for example) or from EU (establishment of a Mediterranean
Institute for Renewable Energy in Perpignan, for instance).
As an example, the national organization for renewable energy and energy efficiency (CDER) is
currently involved in the deployment of the QualitEnR label (for Maghreb countries with the
support of ADEME), which is a European label and covers a broader range of technologies. In
Jordan, the EU is supporting a project aimed at building national capacities in the fields of wind
energy and CSP development (including technical assistance, testing facilities and supply of
equipment for wind turbines and CSP labs). The National Energy Research Center (NERC) has
also been active in supporting capacity-building activities in the field of renewable energy and
energy efficiency. The Syrian National Energy Research Center (NERC) is currently expanding
its scope of activities and will soon develop testing equipments, similar to those developed in
Egypt (NREA) and Morocco (CDER). The exchange of experience and knowledge sharing will
undoubtedly be valuable, while developing regional quality standards that might prove overly
complex due to the necessary interaction with national certification/accreditation bodies.
Developing specialized clusters will be a key tool to foster partnerships between research
institutions and the private sector. Building on the existing research centers and technological
platforms specialized in renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies, financial and
technical assistance will be required to support the proper development of dedicated technology
platforms and clusters. Experience from European technology clusters shows that the key factors
for a successful development include:
 focusing financial resources on collaborative projects between public and private
organizations
 the involvement of industrial or business leaders and a clear governance structure for the
cluster
In order to scale-up both market visibility and resources dedicated to innovation programs,
energy technology clusters in the region would need to form a regional network. It is expected
that this approach will:
 increase business development, new partnerships and cooperation between participating
SMEs, corporate and research bodies
 facilitate the coordination of market positioning, as it is anticipated that in order to avoid
overlaps, focusing on specific technologies will enhance the visibility of
clusters/technology platforms at an international level
116
In addition, cooperation with clusters from the Northern shore of the Mediterranean will be
necessary to facilitate technology transfer and to increase partnerships with industry leaders from
the EU. The involvement of leading renewable energy and energy efficiency equipment or
service providers in local clusters will be a critical factor for the success of these initiatives and
for ensuring market access of technological innovations. The recent initiative led by
organizations from 4 EU countries to coordinate their R&D cooperation activities with MENA
countries partners in the renewable energy field is significant in this respect. A cooperation
agreement is being concluded between:
 Centro de Investigacion Energetica Medioambiental y Tecnologica (CIEMAT), Spain,
 Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique (CEA) – Institut National pour l’Energie Solaire
(INES), France,
 Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) – Jülich Institute for Nuclear
Physics, Germany,
 Ente per le Nuove tecnologie, l’Energia e l’Ambiente (ENEA), Italy.
The ambition of this project is to establish a platform for renewable energy and energy efficiency
technology exchange with MENA countries. The potential sites for the platform (probably on the
Northern shore) have already been identified. This initiative can both inspire MENA countries
for similar South-South regional cooperation projects and form an opportunity for partnering
with leading research organizations from the EU. Developing such approaches should also build
upon the experience and networks of the MIRA (Mediterranean Innovation and Research
Coordination Action) project. Regional organizations such as RCREEE will probably play a
critical role in facilitating knowledge sharing and collaboration on joint research programs in the
area. A central expertise center could play the role of a focal point for the network of renewable
energy and energy efficiency technology clusters. Actions carried out on this aspect might
include:
 Facilitating the exchange of experience and knowledge through cluster workshops
 Increasing market visibility through joint resources for marketing, business development,
export activities etc.
 Facilitating new business contacts and co-operation between the SMEs through regular
events/meetings.
 Developing joint research programs and activities (technological pilots, etc.).
Setting up specialized clusters will require support from local Governments and from
international donors, mostly on the following items:
 Assistance to the setting-up of the cluster/platform: feasibility study, strategy and action
plan elaboration, team structuring, identification of key participants (including research
bodies, industry leaders, regional development agencies, incubators, etc.);
 Training of management teams: entrepreneurship, management, marketing, export
activities
117

Co-financing of research programs and projects, as well as innovation demonstration
platforms.
 Supporting the setting-up of specific training programs with professional training centers
or with universities.
 Market visibility: communication strategy, participation to specific events, contribution
to international conferences, setting up specific events, development of information tools
(websites, brochures, seminars, etc.), facilitation of outreach to local/regional SMEs, etc.
Thus many European countries are keen on the transfer of know-how and technology to MENA
countries and between European countries to put a strong base for renewable energy market
expansion (26 pp. 83-87)
Examples of cluster application in MENA region are: EnerMENA project, Desertec University
Network (DUN) and REMENA program.
EnerMENA project:
Objectives of enerMENA:
1) Capacity Building and Optimization: this is accomplished through the organization of
advanced training courses, the establishment of capable technical staffs to ensure the
quality of CSP plants & knowledge multiplication. Moreover, it aims at the introduction
of theoretical and practical modules for project planning, yield prognosis and efficiency
upgrading.
2) Transfer of Expert Knowledge: by the transfer of CSP technology to educational and
professional institutions. In addition to supporting the establishment of skilled manpower
for the CSP market, providing support during the implementation (model university in
each country), doing workshops for professors, teachers and trainers and cooperation
with education institutions in five MENA countries, Kassel University, Solar-Institute
Jülich (SIJ)
3) Dissemination of information and Support of market development: through the
creation of a network of high precise meteorological stations in MENA region and long
term dissemination of information for scientific and development purposes.
The Overall Objective of the project is the sustainable implementation of solar power plant
technology in MENA region. It is coordinated by DLR and financed by the German Federal
Foreign Ministry. 5 MENA countries are involved in this project; Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria
& Morocco (41).
Desertec University Network:
The DESERTEC Foundation, in cooperation with the Tunisian National Advisory Council for
Scientific Research and Technology, has founded a platform for scientific cooperation for
DESERTEC. Founding members besides the non-profit DESERTEC Foundation are 18
118
universities and research facilities from North Africa and the Middle East. It is planned to
expand the network to a global platform, in order to promote the realization of the DESERTEC
Concept “Clean Power from Deserts” in different regions of the world. The DESERTEC
University Network is another main pillar of the DESERTEC Foundation’s strategy alongside
the industrial initiative Dii GmbH, which has been founded last year. From their intense contacts
with activists and experts in the desert countries we have learnt that the local education of
qualified specialists is a critical success factor for the implementation and the acceptance of our
DESERTEC Concept as said by Dr. Thiemo Gropp, Director of the DESERTEC Foundation.
The signing of the founding document took place in Tunis at the “Tunisia Solar International
Conference” – under patronage of the President of Tunisia Ben Ali. Right after the inauguration,
two universities from Germany joined the network. For several other institutes from Italy, France
and Germany the approval procedure is underway.
The objectives of the DESERTEC University Network:

International cooperation of public and private academic and scientific institutions with
the aim of contributing to the implementation of the DESERTEC Concept.

Promoting the education of skilled professionals, particularly in the desert countries,
which will soon be among the world’s biggest producers of renewable energy. This shall
help maximize those countries' share of the value creation.

Research and education for a continuous improvement of production, installation and
operation of future DESERTEC energy systems.
Founding Members of the DESERTEC University Network:
1. Cairo University, Giza, Egypt
2. German University in Cairo, New Cairo City, Egypt
3. Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
4. UDES (Unité de Développement des Equipements Solaires), Algiers, Algeria
5. USTO (Université des Sciences et de la Technologie d'Oran), Oran, Algeria
6. DESERTEC Foundation, Hamburg, Germany
7. University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
8. University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
9. Al-Fateh University, Tripoli, Libya
10. Center for Solar Energy Research and Studies (CSERS), Tripoli, Libya
119
11. National Authority for Scientific Research, Tripoli, Libya
12. Sebha University, Sebha, Libya
13. CNRST (Centre National pour la Recherche Scientifique et Technique), Rabat, Morocco
14. Ecole Nationale de l’Industrie Minérale, Agdal, Rabat, Morocco
15. Ecole Nationale Supérieure d’Electricité et de Mécanique (ENSEM-UH2C), Casablanca,
Morocco
16. Centre de Recherches et des Technologies de l’Energie, Borj-Cedria, Tunisia
17. Ecole Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Tunis, Université Tunis-El-Manar, Tunisia
18. Ecole Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Monastir, Université de Monastir, Tunisia
19. Université de Gafsa, Gafsa, Tunisia
Right after the founding ceremony, the first two institutions from Europe were accepted as
new members (for several others from Italy, France and Germany the approval procedure is
underway): Jacobs University, Bremen, Germany and the German-French University,
Saarbrücken, Germany (42).
REMENA program: Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency for the Middle East and
North Africa (MENA) Region (REMENA)
This master program provides young professionals with technical and managerial knowledge in
the renewable energy and energy efficiency sector and with intercultural competencies. Both
aspects are equally important when taking up leadership positions in the renewable energy sector
and to work effectively in the framework of international cooperation.
Two universities – the University of Kassel and the Cairo University – in cooperation with
institutions and companies in the renewable energy sector have combined their expertise to
design an attractive master program to guarantee an excellent education for young experts to
meet the needs of a sustainable energy supply. Students follow this 21 months program at three
different locations. It is an application-oriented program where graduates are expected to work
for companies and institutions in the field of renewable energies to foster the further
development on an international level (43).
120
B-3: Grid infrastructures details
Cumulative costs
Scenario
Grid investment costs
Mio USD
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Grid investment costs
Bio USD
Other MENA countries
Total MENA
Most likely
Best
Conservative
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
149.76
465.92
4596.80
187.20
582.40
5746.00
134.78
419.33
4137.12
105.56
276.33
5002.40
132.03
345.38
6253.00
95.06
248.66
4502.16
53.66
230.88
1570.40
67.08
288.60
1963.00
48.26
207.79
1413.36
100.88
254.80
1071.20
126.10
318.50
1339.00
90.79
229.32
964.08
81.54
764.40
11596.00
101.92
955.50
14495.00
73.38
687.96
10436.40
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
0.96
2.39
32.80
1.20
2.99
41.00
0.87
2.15
29.52
1.66
4.16
56.62
2.08
5.20
70.77
1.50
3.74
50.96
Additional costs
Scenario
Grid investment costs
Mio USD
Morocco
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
Egypt
Grid investment costs
Bio USD
Other MENA countries
Total MENA
Most likely
Best
Conservative
2012
201320220
20212050
2012
20132020
20212050
2012
20132020
20212050
149.76
316.16
4130.88
187.20
395.20
5163.60
134.78
284.54
3717.79
105.56
170.77
4726.07
132.03
213.36
5907.62
95.06
153.61
4253.50
53.66
177.22
1339.52
67.08
221.52
1674.40
48.26
159.54
1205.57
100.88
153.92
816.40
126.10
192.40
1020.50
90.79
138.53
734.76
81.54
682.86
10831.60
101.92
853.58
13539.50
73.38
614.58
9748.44
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
0.96
1.43
30.41
1.20
1.78
38.01
0.87
1.28
27.37
1.66
2.50
52.46
2.08
3.12
65.57
1.50
2.25
47.21
Table B-4: Investments costs of grid infrastructure in MENA countries.
Elements in the new power system architecture:
A micro grid: a hybrid system based on more than one generating source, for example solar and
wind power, is a method of providing a secure supply in remote rural areas or islands, especially
where there is no grid-connected electricity. This is particularly appropriate in developing
countries. In the future, several hybrid systems could be connected together to form a micro grid
in which the supply is managed using smart grid techniques.
A smart grid is an electricity grid that connects decentralized renewable energy sources and
cogeneration and distributes power highly efficiently. Advanced communication and control
technologies such as smart electricity meters are used to deliver electricity more cost effectively,
with lower greenhouse intensity and in response to consumer needs. Typically, small generators
such as wind turbines, solar panels or fuels cells are combined with energy management to
121
balance out the load of all the users on the system. Smart grids are a way to integrate massive
amounts of renewable energy into the system and enable the decommissioning of older
centralized power stations.
A super grid is a large scale electricity grid network linking together a number of countries, or
connecting areas with a large supply of renewable electricity to an area with a large demand ideally based on more efficient HVDC (High Voltage Direct Current) cables. An example of the
former would be the interconnection of all the large renewable based power plants in the North
Sea. An example of the latter would be a connection between Southern Europe and Africa so that
renewable energy could be exported from an area with a large renewable resource to urban
centers where there is high demand (25 p. 41)
Expected developments in MENA region:
Jordan - Syria
Doubling of the existing 400 kV interconnection between Syria’s and Jordan’s grid (from 350 to
700 MW in commercial capacity) is envisaged for the future.
Syria – Iraq
The interconnection consists of a 400 kV AC single circuit OL with a length of 165 km. It runs
from Tayem (Syria) to Qa’im (Iraq). The 400 kV on the Syrian side has been completed.
Jordan - Palestinian Territories
A new 400 kV between the two countries is envisaged in order to supply power to the West
Bank. The line will connect the new in Amman West to a new in Jerusalem East. The Amman
West will be connected to the 400 kV transmission backbone of Jordan through two lines
towards Samra and Qatraneh. According to the information received from the Palestinian Energy
Authority, the schedule for the lines commissioning is at the beginning of 2013.
Egypt - Jordan
The existing 400 kV submarine interconnection between Egypt and is expected to be reinforced
in order to double the interconnection capacity up to 1100 MW.
Egypt - Palestinian Territories
The Gaza Strip is planned to be fully connected to the Egyptian network. The Islamic
Development Fund will finance the project. The line from El-Areesh (Egypt) will provide 150
MW to Gaza. Once decided, the project is expected to be completed in 12-18 months.
122
Egypt – Libya – Tunisia – Algeria - Morocco
A plan exists concerning the creation of a 400/500 kV transmission backbone from Egypt to
Morocco.
Libya - Italy
A feasibility study for a 1000 MW, 500 kV DC submarine cable, 520 km in length, was
completed in February 2008.
Algeria - Spain
A feasibility study for a HVDC connection from Algeria to Spain by means of a 240 km
submarine cable with a capacity of 2000 MW was completed in 2003. It will link Terga (Algeria)
to the Litoral de Almeria (Spain). The project is under negotiations for a possible
implementation, but no firm decisions have been taken so far.
Algeria - Italy
A feasibility study was completed in June 2004 with two solutions for a 500 - 1000 MW,
400/500 kV DC interconnection being analysed:


A “direct” line between El Hadjar (Algeria) and Latina (Italy) with a capacity of 1000
MW;
An “optimized” line between El Hadjar (Algeria) and South Sardinia (Italy) with two 500
MW lines.
No firm decisions have been taken so far for the implementation of the project.
Tunisia - Italy
A feasibility study was carried out in 2004-2005 for an interconnection of the electricity grids of
Tunisia and Italy through a 400 kV HVDC link. The transfer capacity was determined to be
approximately 400 MW in a first stage (monopolar scheme). After the reinforcement of the 400
kV AC grid in Sicily a second pole is to be installed, allowing to attain a target capacity of the
interconnector of 1000 MW. The length of the interconnection will be slightly less than 200 km.
The link is expected to be in operation by 2015 depending on the progress on the construction of
new generation in Tunisia (44 pp. 76-78).
Greece - Egypt.
Greece is considering a link to Crete, which could be extended to Egypt.
123
Besides the construction of submarine interconnections, which are extremely costly, the
reinforcement of existing links could provide short term additional capacity for the export of
electricity, mostly through the reinforcement of the interconnection between Spain and Morocco
(an additional 700 MW AC cable) and adding new 400 kV overhead circuits between Turkey
and Greece and/or Bulgaria. When the current and planned projects are completed, the MENA
countries will be linked together via the MEDRING (Mediterranean Electrical Ring), an electric
ring that encircles the Mediterranean region and is linked to the European network. The
MEDRING project, which would interconnect all Mediterranean systems, is expected to enhance
system stability, optimize generation capacity, and develop commercial energy exchanges
between countries linked by the electrical ring (26 pp. 27-29). Table B-5 shows the investments
costs of sample trans-Mediterranean interconnection projects. Table B-6 shows the grid
infrastructure requirements of prospective renewable energy projects in MENA focus countries.
Figures B-(1-6) show the grid interconnection for MENA focus countries and total MENA (45).
Project
Capacity (MW)
1000
Spain - Algeria
1000
Italy - Algeria
1000
Italy - Tunisia
1000
Italy - Libya
(26
p.
81)
Source
Table B-5: Investments cost of sample projects
Project
Kom Ombo
CSP plant
Farafra Oasis
PV plant
Country
Egypt
Egypt
The Gulf of El
Zayt Wind farm
Egypt
Sabha CSP
plant
Shahat PV
plant
Libya
Ghadamis PV
plant
Libya
Libya
Investment costs (Mio Euro)
800
700
700
900
Grid infrastructure requirements
Grid connection will be to a 66 kV medium voltage line 1 km
north of the site. A new substation is required
Grid connection to the medium voltage distribution network of
the village is through the substation of the Diesel power plant
which is located 200 m away from the site. The PV plant can be
directly connected to low voltage bar at the diesel power station
in case it is operated as a fuel saver.
The erection of the 22kV/220 kV substation and 220 kV
Overhead transmission Line inter-connection to the corridor of
the 220 kV Overhead Transmission Line Hurghada Zafarana.
A 220 kV line passes close to the site and connects to the 220
kV substation situated around 10 km away.
A substation at 220/66 kV levels is situated less than 3 km away
from the site. Grid connection to the substation should be
possible since capacity foreseen for the PV plant will not
exceed 8 MWp.
Grid connection should be possible to the medium voltage
66/11 kV substation located less than 6 km away.
124
Power generated from the site will be evacuated through a 60
kV line passes the Northeast corner of the site and connects to a
60/225 kV substation located around 8 km away. Power
transmission will not pose a problem since the medium voltage
network would be appropriate for this project size, and the
nearby load centre also requires around 50 MW supply
capacity.
Algeria
A 220 kV transmission line connecting Nââma and Saida
Nââma CSP
traverses near the Eastern parameter of the proposed site. The
plant
nearest 60/220 kV substation is located 25 km away from the
project site.
( see annex B-4 General infrastructure)
Source
Table B-6: Grid infrastructure requirements for sample projects
Ouarzazate
CSP plant
Morocco
Figure B-1: Morocco Grid interconnection, source: (AUPTDE, 2010)
125
Figure B-2: Algeria Grid interconnection, source: (AUPTDE, 2010)
Figure B-3: Libya Grid interconnection, source: (AUPTDE, 2010)
126
Figure B-4: Tunisia Grid interconnection, source: (AUPTDE, 2010)
127
Figure B-5: Egypt Grid interconnection, source: (AUPTDE, 2010)
128
Figure B-6: MENA Grid interconnection, source: (AUPTDE, 2010)
Expected developments in Europe:
Although we know that there are technically enough resources to power the whole continent with
renewables – solar in the south, wind in the north plus geothermal, biomass and cogeneration – a
new network of interactive smart grids will be needed, in turn interconnected with a ‘super grid’
providing transmission capacity for large scale renewables such as offshore wind and
concentrated solar power from North Africa. This new grid design also needs to take into
account rare events when weather-based renewable energy in certain areas drops below the
supply level needed. The problems could occur particularly in winter, when electricity demand is
high and solar production low.



In an extreme summer event of high demand and extremely low wind (as in August
2003), the available power from locally distributed solar PV would be enough to
compensate for the lack of wind. Therefore no change to the existing grid would be
needed.
In an extreme winter event of high demand and low solar power production in most parts
of Europe, combined with low wind power production in Central and Northern Europe
(as in January 1997), electricity would have to be transmitted from Northern Europe
(mainly hydro power) and from Southern Europe (mainly solar power) into Central
Europe. For this to be achieved by renewable energy, a new super grid would be needed.
In an extreme autumn event (as in November 1987), with very low solar radiation and
low wind production, reinforcement of the existing high voltage grid, as well as
installation of the proposed super grid, would be sufficient.
129
To be able to provide a reliable, secure power supply to Europe, taking into account extreme
weather and high demand scenarios, it is therefore proposed:
 Strengthening 34 high voltage AC interconnections between neighboring countries in
Europe: 5,347 km of upgrades at a cost of approximately 3 billion Euros.
 17 new or strengthened high voltage DC interconnections within Europe: 5,125 km of
upgrades at a cost of approximately 16 billion Euros.
 Up to 15 new high voltage DC ‘super grid’ connections, including 11 within Europe of
up to 6,000 km at a cost of approximately 100 billion Euros and 4 links between Europe
and Africa to import concentrating solar electricity with a total length of 5,500 to 6,000
km at a cost of approximately 90 billion Euros. Altogether the proposal would cost
around 209 billion Euros per year up to 2050 (25 p. 46).
130
B-4 General infrastructure details
a) Roads:
Suitable roads are important to access the sites and to transport the plant’s equipment. For a CSP
plant, the access road shall allow the transportation of large equipment, such as boiler domes,
steam turbines, heat exchangers, among others. For Wind mill, it shall allow the transportation of
wind turbines, the long tower segments and especially the long blades. For PV, it shall allow the
transportation of PV panels.
b) Grid availability
In order to evacuate the energy produced by the power plants, Medium Voltage grid (usually for
PV applications up to 10 MWp) or High Voltage grid (usually for Wind, CSP and PV
applications greater than 10 MW of installed capacity) should be available on the surroundings
of the potential location. A connection point or availability of sub-stations on the surroundings of
the plant’s location will be an advantage and it is strongly recommended.
c) Demand centers
Demand centers nearby will be an advantage for the location of a power plant, in order to avoid
transmission losses and to take advantage of the other potential available infrastructure. In
addition, this will trigger the construction of housing and manufacturing companies nearby.
Moreover, this can introduce new agriculture area irrigated through water desalinated by CSP
plants.
d) Telecommunications
In order to transmit the electricity production information and any other important events of the
plant (alarms, monitoring signals, etc.), telephone connection or wireless communication should
be available nearby the site, especially when the plant is located in an isolated region.
e) Accommodation
During the construction of these renewable power plants, there should be suitable shelters for
labor working in the desert. Since the construction can take more than one year, it will be more
saving for time and fuel in transportation of labor every day. These shelters can be used after
construction for operating personnel and other local people. This will be less important in case of
PV power plants during construction.
f) Water availability
For CSP applications, water availability in the site of interest represents an important advantage
for the better performance of the solar power plant (solar field and power block). If water is not
available at the location, dry cooling for the power block can be implemented and water can be
131
transported for washing the collectors, but this solution will result in a plant’s lower efficiency
and in higher plant’s operative costs. For PV applications water availability is also an advantage
(periodic washing of modules is necessary), but it is not as critical as in the case of CSP
applications.
g) Gas or fossil fuel pipeline
In a CSP application, gas or other available fossil fuels will be necessary to support the energy
production of the plant during the hours when the solar irradiation is not enough to produce
(efficiently) electric energy. Fossil fuels are also utilized to avoid the freezing of the thermal
fluid which transmits the solar energy to the power block of the power plant. The fossil fuels can
also be transported by other means, for example by trucks or vessels, but it will have a negative
effect in the economies of the project. Taking into consideration the infrastructure information, it
will be possible to locate the best potential regions for the location of a solar plant.
Therefore, all of the previous inputs are required partly or totally during the construction and
operation of renewable power plants (46 pp. 7,8).
The following paragraphs will show some examples of general infrastructure requirements in
renewable energy projects in MENA focus countries:
Egypt:
CSP: The Kom Ombo site is a barren land located at N 24.62° and E 32.89° at the border of the
village Faris, Kom Ombo, and about 40 km North of Aswan and 150 km South of Luxor. Access
to the site is through a paved road connecting Kom Ombo to the desert highway Aswan-Luxor.
Grid connection will be to a 66 kV medium voltage line 1 km north of the site. A new substation
is required. Water for cooling is available at large quantities from the river Nile at 2 km distance.
Water for mirror cleaning can be obtained from a treatment station just 400 m from the site. The
total available land for the CSP plant is approximately 750 hectares. The site is flat though
slightly sloping to the East. The soil is compacted sand-gravel sediments. Minor leveling will be
required to prepare for flat collector fields. (47 p. 5)
PV: Farafra Oasis has been selected as all relevant information on the power system were
available and overall project conditions were most attractive. The site in Farafra Oasis is also a
barren land situated at N 27.05° E 27.96° which is 300 km west of the city of Asyut in Central
Egypt . This site is adjacent to an off-grid diesel power station which is located at the eastern
perimeter of the village. Access to the site is via a gravel road coming from the highway El
Farafra – El Wahat. Grid connection to the medium voltage distribution network of the village is
through the substation of the Diesel power plant which is located 200 m away from the site. The
PV plant can be directly connected to low voltage bar at the diesel power station in case it is
operated as a fuel saver. The total suitable area for a PV plant installation amounts to around 80
hectares where there is a potential for plant extension in the Southern and Western perimeters.
132
The terrain structure is simple and flat. It is an exposed area free of trees, forest or other natural
obstacles. No dunes are observed on the site and in the vicinity (48 pp. 4,5).
Wind farm: Civil works to be carried out for a wind park at the “KfW area” in the Gulf of El
Zayt site (49 pp. 69,70) are:







foundation works (earth and concrete works)
gravel road construction works for the roads and the installation platforms (cut
and fill, aggregate recovery from pits near the site, leveling and compaction)
foundations for compact stations or ring main stations next to the turbines
trench works (excavation, sand bed preparation, refilling, pipe laying in case of
road crossing)
pipeline crossing constructions according to safety standards of the pipeline
company for roads and power cables
the erection of the 22kV/220 kV substation
the 220 kV Overhead Transmission Line interconnection to the corridor of the
220 kV Overhead Transmission Line Hurghada Zafarana.
Libya:
CSP: The site considered for CSP power development is in the District of Sabha, 10 km South of
the capital Sabha city in Central Libya. The site in Sabha is a barren land located at N26°47’40’’
and E14°26’35’’ with altitude of 490 m above mean sea level and gentle terrain slope of around
0.5% . The site has stony desert landscape with no vegetation and is non arable. The land of the
site is owned by the government, thus a full concession for land use could be expected. Access to
the site is through the adjacent motorway A16 linking Sabha City. A 220 kV line passes close to
the site and connects to the 220 kV substation situated around 10 km away. Water needed for
mirror washing and power block make-up could be sourced from ground water supply. This
however requires further assessment concerning the availability and quantity of water that could
be extracted from the ground (50 pp. 3,4).
PV: Among the number of sites investigated by the expert team, the sites in Shahat and
Ghadamis had been selected for this pre-feasibility study as these sites showed better conditions
due to their favourable topography, high solar resource intensity, access to road network, and
medium voltage transmission line.
i)
Shahat Site: The Shahat site, located at N32°45'36", E21°53'24", is approximately 5
km south of Shahat city. Shahat is a touristic city situated in Northern part of Libya,
close to the Mediterranean Sea. A total of 15 hectares is available in the site with
additional potential area for plant expansion at the later stage. The terrain is not
complex though slightly sloping to the South at 3%, and it is an exposed area free of
trees, forest or other natural obstacles. Soil conditions are regarded as suitable as it
133
ii)
comprises of normal soil, though the terrain needs to be cleared of rocks in order to
be used for module installation. Site access is through a paved road adjacent to the
site. A substation at 220/66 kV levels is situated less than 3 km away from the site.
Grid connection to the substation should be possible since capacity foreseen for the
PV plant will not exceed 8 MWp (51 p. 3).
Ghadamis Site: The Ghadamis site, located at N30°10'4.8", E9°45'21.6", is 25 km
east of Ghadamis city. Ghadamis is a touristic city located in the Western part of
Libya, close to the border with Algeria and Tunisia. The site in Ghadamis is not
complex, mainly flat, and suitable for PV application. The site is also non arable. The
total suitable area for PV plant installation amounts to approximately 500 hectares
with the possibility of further expansion into adjacent areas. Soil conditions are
regarded as suitable which comprise mainly of sand and small rocks. Site access is
through motorways A5 or A7 which are adjacent to the site. Grid connection should
be possible to the MV 66/11 kV substation located less than 6 km away (51 p. 3).
Morocco:
CSP: A site in Ouarzazate has been selected for this pre-feasibility study as it showed better
conditions due to its excellent topography, wind protection by the Atlas Mountains, high altitude
and solar resource intensity, availability of surface and ground water for cooling, good
infrastructure as well as its proximity to a medium voltage transmission line Around 1,000
hectares of land in a near rectangular shape and at an average altitude of 1,250 m above mean sea
level (AMSL) are available for CSP development near Ouarzazate. It is located about 10 km
North-East of the tourist town of Ouarzazate on the Eastern side of the Atlas Mountains. The
geographical coordinates at the centre of the site are N 31°01’46’’/W 06°’52’10’’. The landscape
at the site is a stone desert characterized by virtually no vegetation and no productive use of the
land whatsoever. The ground is composed of compacted sediments. Although the region is
characterized by an arid climate, it is protected from sand storms and supplied by river water due
to the proximity of the mountains. The nearby Mansour-Eddahbi Dam assures continuity of the
water supply throughout the year round. Alternatively, water could also be extracted from the
nearby dry riverbed situated north of the site. For both options, however, water availability
should be further assessed since the project may compete for water supply from agriculture and
domestic consumption. Power generated from the site will be evacuated through a 60 kV line
passes the northeast corner of the site and connects to a 60/225 kV substation located around 8
km away. Power transmission will not pose a problem since the medium voltage network would
be appropriate for this project size, and the nearby load centre also requires around 50 MW
supply capacity (52 pp. 3,4).
134
Algeria:
CSP: Among the 10 sites initially submitted for CSP assessment, the site in Nââma has been
selected for this pre-feasibility study as it showed better conditions due to its favourable
topography, high solar resource intensity, access to road and rail network and high voltage 220
kV transmission line, and availability of water supply The Nââma site is located at 33.4°N and
0.35°E and about 20 km north of the county’s capital Nââma. The site has desert landscape with
little vegetation and is not used for productive purposes. The soil is composed of small stones
and sand. The site is considerably flat with gentle terrain slope below 0.5%. Around 500 hectares
of land (~ 1 km in East-West direction and ~5 km in North-South direction) is available for solar
thermal power development. The size of the site would allow for a CSP plant capacity of at least
100 MWel with up to 8 full load hours (FLH) thermal energy storage (TES). Transportation to
the site is possible via rail, road and air. The railway line connects to the north of the county, and
the road to the national road number 6. The airport at Mecheria, located 3 km from the site,
offers direct air connection to Alger with Air Algerie twice a week. A 220 kV transmission line
connecting Nââma and Saida traverses near the Eastern parameter of the proposed site. The
nearest 60/220 kV substation is located 25 km away from the project site. Natural gas for
auxiliary heating and freeze protection could be sourced from the gas pipeline situated north of
the project site. The gas can be supplied at pressure of 75 bar. Water could be supplied to the site
from the following 2 sources:


Local water distribution system from the nearby town, Mecheria, which is 5 km away
from the site
Ground water reservoir (a capacity of 100 m3/day could be obtained from a ground water
reservoir 3 km away from the project site) (53 pp. 2,3).
135
Annex C: CO2 emission reduction calculation
Morocco
The Most Likely scenario
The Best scenario
The Conservative scenario
emission in Mio ton
CO2
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
0.03
0.07
0.22
0.04
0.08
0.28
0.03
0.06
0.20
CSP
1.01
1.14
2.40
1.27
1.42
3.00
0.91
1.02
2.16
PV
0.00
0.08
1.02
0.01
0.10
1.28
0.00
0.07
0.92
Oil only
4.55
16.67
139.28
5.69
20.83
174.09
4.10
15.00
125.35
NG only
2.73
10.00
83.57
3.41
12.50
104.46
2.46
9.00
75.21
Coal only
5.76
21.11
176.42
7.20
26.39
220.52
5.19
19.00
158.77
Total RE
1.05
1.28
3.64
1.31
1.60
4.56
0.95
1.15
3.28
Mix(0.6 coal, 0.25
oil. 0.15 NG)
5.02
18.40
153.76
6.28
23.00
192.20
4.52
16.56
138.38
CO2 Reduction
3.97
17.12
150.12
4.97
21.40
187.64
3.57
15.41
135.10
Algeria
The Most Likely scenario
The Best scenario
The Conservative scenario
emission in Mio ton
CO2
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
0.01
0.03
0.21
0.02
0.04
0.26
0.01
0.03
0.19
CSP
0.09
0.38
2.64
0.12
0.47
3.30
0.08
0.34
2.37
PV
0.06
0.17
0.83
0.07
0.21
1.04
0.06
0.15
0.75
Oil only
1.43
7.35
147.15
1.80
9.15
183.98
1.28
6.60
132.45
NG only
0.86
4.41
88.29
1.08
5.49
110.39
0.77
3.96
79.47
Coal only
1.81
9.31
186.39
2.28
11.59
233.04
1.62
8.36
167.77
Total RE
0.17
0.58
3.68
0.21
0.72
4.60
0.14
0.52
3.31
Mix(0.02 oil. 0.98
NG)
0.87
4.47
89.47
1.09
5.56
111.86
0.78
4.01
80.53
CO2Reduction
0.70
3.89
85.79
0.88
4.84
107.25
0.63
3.49
77.22
Tunisia
The Most Likely scenario
The Best scenario
The Conservative scenario
emission in Mio ton
CO2
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
0.00
0.04
0.09
0.01
0.05
0.11
0.00
0.03
0.08
CSP
0.00
0.10
0.69
0.00
0.13
0.87
0.00
0.09
0.62
PV
0.05
0.06
0.30
0.06
0.08
0.38
0.04
0.05
0.27
Oil only
0.60
3.75
41.85
0.75
4.76
52.35
0.54
3.38
37.73
NG only
0.36
2.25
25.11
0.45
2.86
31.41
0.32
2.03
22.64
Coal only
0.76
4.75
53.01
0.95
6.03
66.31
0.68
4.28
47.79
Total RE
0.05
0.20
1.08
0.07
0.25
1.36
0.05
0.18
0.98
Mix(0.1 oil. 0.9 NG)
0.38
2.40
26.78
0.48
3.05
33.50
0.35
2.16
24.14
CO2Reduction
0.33
2.20
25.70
0.41
2.80
32.15
0.30
1.98
23.17
Libya
The Most Likely scenario
The Best scenario
The Conservative scenario
emission in Mio ton
CO2
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
0.02
0.03
0.09
0.02
0.04
0.11
0.02
0.03
0.08
136
CSP
0.24
0.45
0.35
0.30
0.57
0.44
0.22
0.41
0.32
PV
0.00
0.02
0.24
0.00
0.03
0.30
0.00
0.02
0.21
Oil only
1.84
7.13
25.06
2.30
8.92
31.33
1.66
6.42
22.55
NG only
1.10
4.28
15.04
1.38
5.35
18.80
0.99
3.85
13.53
Coal only
2.33
9.03
31.74
2.92
11.29
39.68
2.10
8.13
28.57
Total RE
0.27
0.51
0.68
0.33
0.64
0.85
0.24
0.46
0.61
Mix(0.59 oil. 0.41
NG)
1.54
5.96
20.95
1.92
7.45
26.19
1.39
5.37
18.86
CO2Reduction
1.27
5.45
20.27
1.59
6.81
25.34
1.15
4.90
18.24
Egypt
The Most Likely scenario
The Best scenario
The Conservative scenario
emission in Mio ton
CO2
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
0.03
0.26
0.81
0.03
0.33
1.01
0.02
0.23
0.73
CSP
0.05
0.07
6.32
0.06
0.09
7.90
0.04
0.06
5.69
PV
0.00
0.01
2.16
0.00
0.01
2.70
0.00
0.01
1.95
Oil only
1.84
17.05
373.85
2.29
21.31
467.31
1.65
15.34
336.46
NG only
1.10
10.23
224.31
1.38
12.79
280.39
0.99
9.21
201.88
Coal only
2.33
21.59
473.54
2.91
26.99
591.93
2.09
19.43
426.19
Total RE
0.08
0.33
9.29
0.10
0.42
11.61
0.07
0.30
8.36
Mix(0.22 oil. 0.78
NG)
1.26
11.73
257.21
1.58
14.66
321.51
1.14
10.56
231.49
CO2Reduction
1.18
11.39
247.92
1.48
14.24
309.90
1.07
10.25
223.12
Other MENA
countries
emission in Mio ton
CO2
The Most Likely scenario
The Best scenario
The Conservative scenario
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
0.13
0.25
0.77
0.16
0.31
0.96
0.11
0.22
0.69
CSP
2.87
2.77
19.03
3.59
3.46
23.79
2.59
2.49
17.13
PV
0.59
1.45
7.22
0.74
1.81
9.03
0.53
1.31
6.50
Oil only
18.64
55.50
1030.20
23.30
69.38
1287.75
16.78
49.95
927.18
NG only
11.18
33.30
618.12
13.98
41.63
772.65
10.07
29.97
556.31
Coal only
23.61
70.30
1304.92
29.51
87.88
1631.14
21.25
63.27
1174.42
Total RE
3.59
4.47
27.02
4.49
5.58
33.77
3.23
4.02
24.32
Mix(0.05 coal, 0.37
oil. 0.58 NG)
14.68
43.70
811.11
18.34
54.62
1013.89
13.21
39.33
730.00
CO2Reduction
11.08
39.23
784.09
13.85
49.04
980.11
9.97
35.31
705.68
Total MENA
The Most Likely scenario
The Best scenario
The Conservative scenario
emission in Mio ton
CO2
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
0.26
0.53
2.19
0.33
0.66
2.74
0.23
0.47
1.97
CSP
4.26
4.17
31.43
5.33
5.22
39.29
3.84
3.76
28.29
PV
0.97
2.36
11.77
1.21
2.95
14.72
0.87
2.12
10.59
Oil only
32.63
94.73
1757.33
40.78
118.41
2196.66
29.36
85.25
1581.59
NG only
19.58
56.84
1054.40
24.47
71.04
1317.99
17.62
51.15
948.96
137
Coal only
41.33
119.99
2225.95
51.66
149.98
2782.43
37.19
107.99
2003.35
Total RE
5.49
7.06
45.39
6.87
8.83
56.74
4.94
6.36
40.85
Mix(0.23 coal, 0.28
oil. 0.49 NG)
28.23
81.97
1520.67
35.29
102.46
1900.84
25.41
73.77
1368.60
CO2Reduction
22.74
74.91
1475.28
28.42
93.63
1844.10
20.47
67.42
1327.75
Europe
The Most Likely scenario
The Best scenario
The Conservative scenario
emission in Mio ton
CO2
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
2012
2020
2050
wind
0.04
0.09
0.35
0.05
0.11
0.44
0.04
0.08
0.32
CSP
0.69
0.68
5.09
0.86
0.85
6.36
0.62
0.61
4.58
PV
0.16
0.38
1.91
0.20
0.48
2.38
0.14
0.34
1.72
Oil only
5.29
15.35
284.69
6.61
19.18
355.86
4.76
13.81
256.22
NG only
3.17
9.21
170.81
3.96
11.51
213.51
2.85
8.29
153.73
Coal only
6.69
19.44
360.60
8.37
24.30
450.75
6.03
17.49
324.54
Total RE
0.89
1.14
7.35
1.11
1.43
9.19
0.80
1.03
6.62
Mix(0.51 coal, 0.06
oil. 0.43 NG)
5.09
14.79
274.44
6.37
18.49
343.05
4.59
13.31
246.99
CO2Reduction
4.21
13.65
267.08
5.26
17.06
333.86
3.78
12.28
240.38
Table C-1: CO2 emission from different energy sources
The table above shows the CO2 emission due to electricity generated from wind, CSP and PV for
the three scenarios in the years 2010, 2012, 2020 and 2050 from MENA focus countries, other
MENA countries, whole MENA and exported electricity to Europe. It shows also the emission if
the same electricity is generated using coal, oil, natural gas or a mix of fossil fuels according to
IEA 200812. The total RE is the sum of CO2 emission from renewable energy mix of wind, CSP
and PV. CO2 reduction is the difference between the emissions from fossil fuels mix and from
RE mix. The figures below shows a comparison between CO2 emission from RE mix and from
fossil fuel mix for the countries under study on the three scenarios.
12
Source: (36)
138
25
700
RE mix the most likely scenario
Mio Tons CO2
Mio Tons CO2
20
15
10
5
2010
Morocco
25
2012 Years 2020
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
300
200
2010
Egypt
Morocco
700
RE mix the best scenario
2012 Years 2020
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
2050
Egypt
Fossil Fuel mix the best scenario
600
Mio Tons CO2
Mio Tons CO2
400
0
2050
20
15
10
5
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
2010
Morocco
2012 Years 2020
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
2050
2010
Egypt
Morocco
700
RE mix the conservative scenario
600
Mio Tons CO2
20
Mio Tons CO2
500
100
0
25
Fossil Fuel mix the most likely scenario
600
15
10
5
Algeria
Tunisia
Libya
2050
Egypt
Fossil Fuel mix the conservative scenario
500
400
300
200
100
0
2010
Morocco
2012 Years 2020
2012 Years 2020
Algeria Tunisia Libya
0
2050
Egypt
2010
Morocco
2012 Years 2020
Algeria Tunisia Libya
2050
Egypt
Figure C-1: CO2 emission comparison from MENA focus countries on the three scenarios
139
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Mio Tons CO2
Mio Tons CO2
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
0
2010
2012 Years 2020
2050
Other MENA
Total MENA
Europe
3500
RE mix the best scenario
Fossil Fuel mix the best scenario
3000
Mio Tons CO2
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2050
Europe
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
2010
2012 Years 2020
Other MENA
Total MENA
0
2050
Europe
2010
Other MENA
3500
RE mix the conservative scenario
Mio Tons CO2
2010
2012 Years 2020
Other MENA
Total MENA
2012 Years 2020
2050
Total MENA
Europe
Fossil Fuel mix the conservative scenario
3000
Mio Tons CO2
Mio Tons CO2
Fossil Fuel mix the most likely scenario
500
2010
2012 Years 2020
Other MENA
Total MENA
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
3500
RE mix the most likely scenario
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2010
2012 Years 2020
2050
Other MENA
Total MENA
Europe
2050
Europe
Figure C-2: CO2 emission comparison other MENA countries, total MENA and Europe on
the three scenarios
140