DSO-Design Statistical Methodology and Production Direction CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) GENERAL METHODOLOGY November 2015 NATIONAL ADMINISTRATIVE DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS MAURICIO PERFETTI DEL CORRAL Chief Statistician CARLOS FELIPE PRADA LOMBO Deputy Chief Statistician LUIS HUMBERTO MOLINA MORENO General Secretary Technical Directors EDUARDO EFRAÍN FREIRE DELGADO Methodology and Statistical Production JUAN FRANCISCO MARTÍNEZ Synthesis and National Accounts LILIANA ACEVEDO ARENAS Censuses and Demography RAMÓN RICARDO VALENZUELA Regulation, Planning, Standardization and Normalization MIGUEL ANGEL CÁRDENAS CONTRERAS Geo-statistics ERIKA MOSQUERA ORTEGA Dissemination, Trade and Statistical Culture Bogotá, D. C., 2015 © DANE, 2015 No reproduction, partial or full, may be undertaken without prior authorization from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, Colombia. Direction of Methodology and Statistical Production (DIMPE) Eduardo Efraín Freire Delgado Technical Coordination1 María Ximena Caicedo Moreno (coordinator), Clara Inés Gutiérrez Perdomo, María Teresa Rojas Linares, Jorge Andrés Tenorio Neira, Alexander González Coca, Vanesa Montoya Naranjo, Diana Marcela Sánchez Castro and Julieth Alejandra Solano Villa. Technical staff Sample Design: Irma Inés Parra Ramírez (coordinator), Oscar Andrés Bautista Alfonso, Nancy Janneth Rodriguez Rodriguez; Systems Design: Néstor Alonso Valbuena Gómez (coordinator), Jakeline Suárez Cabezas. Logistics: Marisol Sabogal Hoyos (coordinator). _________________________________________ 1 The Technical Coordination, that previously developed the methodology of the investigation, was in charge of Eduardo Efraín Freire Delgado, with the collaboration of José Moncada Mantilla, Louis Marc Ducharme, Édgar Sardi Perea, Dora Sanchez de Aponte, Ruth Orjuela de Nensthiel, Luis Carlos Gomez, Manuel Ramirez, Alvaro Montoya Castillo and Ambrosio Bazan. Advisory equipment Adolfo León Cobo Serna, Alejandro Reyes González, Carlos Alfonso Huertas Campos, José David Pulido Pescador, Héctor Manuel Zarate Solano (Banco de la República), Gabriel Armando Piraquive Galeano (National Planning Department) and Camilo Herrera Mora (Raddar). International advisers Louis Marc Ducharme (Director Prices and Enterprises Statistics, StatisticsCanada) Jacob Ryten (Director Prices and Enterprises Statistics, StatisticsCanada). Design and Layout Direction of Diffusion, Trade and Statistical Culture, DANE ISSN 0120 - 7423 CONTENTS FOREWORD…………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................................8 1. BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................................10 2. DESIGN OF THE RESEARCH ..............................................................................................14 2.1. THEMATIC DESIGN.....................................................................................................14 2.1.1. Needs of information ............................................................................................ 14 2.1.2. Objectives............................................................................................................... 14 2.1.3. Scope ...................................................................................................................... 15 2.1.4 Reference framework ............................................................................................ 15 2.1.5. Design of indicators .............................................................................................. 22 2.1.6. Planning of results................................................................................................. 48 2.1.7. Design of the questionnaire ................................................................................. 53 2.1.8. Standards, specifications or rules of validation, consistency and imputation ........ 56 2.1.9. Classifications used ............................................................................................... 58 2.2. STATISTICAL DESIGN ..................................................................................................60 2.2.1. Basic components ................................................................................................. 60 2.2.2. Statistical units....................................................................................................... 62 2.2.3. Periods of reference and collection ..................................................................... 63 2.2.4. Sample desing ....................................................................................................... 65 2.3. DESIGN OF EXECUTION ..............................................................................................67 2.3.1. Traninig system ..................................................................................................... 67 2.3.2 Preparatory activities ............................................................................................ 69 2.3.3. Design of instruments........................................................................................... 70 2.3.4. Collection of the information ............................................................................... 71 2.4. SYSTEMS DESIGN ........................................................................................................79 2.5. DESIGN OF THE METHOD AND MECHANISMS FOR QUALITY CONTROL ...............83 2.6. DESIGN OF THE ANALYSIS OF RESULTS ....................................................................91 2.6.1. Statistical analysis.................................................................................................. 91 2.6.2. Context analysis .................................................................................................... 91 2.6.3. Committee of experts ........................................................................................... 91 2.7. DESIGN OF THE DISSEMINATION ..............................................................................92 2.7.1. Administration of the data repository ................................................................. 92 2.7.2. Products and instruments of dissemination ...................................................... 92 2.8. DESIGN OF THE EVALUATION OF QUALITY..............................................................94 3. RELATED DOCUMENTATION ...........................................................................................95 GLOSSARY OF TERMS ……………………………………………………………………………………………96 BIBLIOGRAPHY .....................................................................................................................98 ANNEXES…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….100 FOREWORD The National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE), a government agency, is responsible for coordinating and regulating the National Statistical System (SEN). Within the Statistical Planning and Harmonization project, it works for strengthening and consolidating the SEN. The following processes support this commitment: the production of strategic statistics; the generation, adaptation and dissemination of standards; the consolidation and harmonization of the statistical information and the coordination of instruments, actors, initiatives and products, all actions geared towards the improvement of the quality of strategic statistical information, its availability, timeliness and accessibility in order to respond to the increasing demand for such information. Conscious of the need and obligation to offer the best possible products, DANE has developed a standard guide for the documentation of the methodologies of statistical operations so as to contribute to the visualization and understanding of the statistical process. Through this instrument, the organization produces methodological documents, for use by specialists and the general public. They present in a standard manner, the main technical characteristics of the processes of each research. They are complete, of easy reading, which allows its analysis, control and evaluation. This series of documents, favors the transparency, confidence and credibility of the technical quality of the institution for a better understanding and use of the statistical information produced following the principles of coherence, comparability, integrity and quality. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 7 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology INTRODUCTION From the institutional point of view, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a statistical research for measuring the average percentage variation of the prices of a set of final goods and services demanded by consumers. The information of the CPI allows analyzing different situations of economic character and is used for decision making inside the government and within private institutions. The resulting index is used mainly as factor of adjustment in the determination of wages, financial statements and in the solution of labor or fiscal claims. The CPI is used to calculate the loss of purchasing power of the currency, to establish the evolution of prices in the commodity flow balances of the national accounts and as an instrument of analysis of the behavior of the economy. The first calculations of the CPI were done by Banco de la República (Central Bank) towards 1923. In the same year the General Comptroller Office was created and took over, among others, the function of structuring the official statistics. It produced a first work on price indexes from surveys of expenditures of the working class in Santafé de Bogotá, in 1937. Later on other cities were introduced in the surveys: Medellín (May 1938 base), Bucaramanga (September 1945 base), Barranquilla (October 1946 base) and Manizales (October 1947 base). Since DANE initiated this type of research in 1954, it established elements of methodological, conceptual and structural character, that can be considered as standards and which reflect an institutional effort of permanent renovation, to offer a statistical exercise as close as possible to the reality of the price effects on the final consumption expenditure of the Colombian households. The Decree 3167 (December 26, 1968), explicitly established within DANE’s functions the elaboration of the CPI: “[…]…It shall establish price indexes for the main goods and services at the producer, wholesale and consumer level; it shall collect the required elements and periodically publish the summary of the corresponding results” (Chapter I, article 2, paragraph J). Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 8 DANE implements regularly the revision of the CPI with the purpose of incorporating methodological and operative improvements in order to align the statistical production of the index with the new developments generated by more advanced statistical systems. In accordance with the international recommendations and standards, the CPI must be updated at least every ten years. Following these standards, in 2008, DANE realized the most recent update of the index for Colombia. The process of updating the CPI follows closely the following references: the recommendations, standards and norms (regulatory frame of the statistical organizations) set by the United Nations, the International Labor Organization (UNOIT), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as the experience of prestigious statistical institutes with international tradition such as that of Canada, United States and France, and that of national and international experts in this particular field. The basic documents used as references regarding the best practices to be followed in this update were: the Manual of Consumer Price Index “Theory and Practice”, of the International Labor Organization (ILO), International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development (OCDE), the Data Quality Assessment Framework for the CPI of the International Monetary Fund, Standard for the Calculation of a Harmonized CPI for the State Members of the Andean Community and the EUROSTAT. Good Practices Manual. The process of revision followed by DANE produced a new version of the index that includes the update of the household basket and weights for the calculation, as well as the increase of the geographic coverage of the indicator, using the most recent National Income and Expenditure Survey, carried out between years 2006-2007. This document intends to be a practical guide that summarizes the main information included in the methodologies (thematic, statistical, sampling and elaboration of indicators) and other documents that are part of the Quality Management System and of the Documentary System of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Processes. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 9 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology 1. BACKGROUND Initial exercises on CPI date back to 1917. Later on, the General Comptroller Office made some exercises on retail prices. Since 1950, with the strengthening of DANE, productions of price indices are among its functions, thanks to the recommendations of the economic missions on the consolidation of the planning system. From 1954, five revisions have been made including the weighting system, the increase of its geographic coverage, and the selection of basket of products for the follow-up of prices. They are presented below: IPC-20 Basic Survey: households income and expenditure surveys, realized in August 1953 in Bogota, and October 1953 in Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Manizales and Pasto. Base Period and time coverage: Bases: July 1954 - June 1955 = 100; time coverage: from July 1954 to December 1978. Index Coverage a) Geographic: It refers to the population of seven cities: Bogota, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Manizales and Pasto. The criteria used for their selection were the level of income, the population density, the climate and the location. b) Socioeconomic: The households of the included cities were stratified in two major categories of occupation: those whose head was an employee and those whose head was a worker. The following aspects were considered in the socio-economic classification: the type of occupation of the members of the household determined by the type of work performed (intellectual or physical), the qualification required for the normal performance in the position, the functions attached to the position and the standard of living measured by the conditions of the dwelling. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 10 The independent workers, the non-familiar groups and the households including only adults were excluded from this process of classification. IPC-40 Basic Survey: the structure of consumption used to establish the weights for the calculation of the CPI is that observed in the Income and Expenditure Survey (EIG), carried out on 1970 in the seven main cities of the country, which was considered as adequate to take into account the evolution of prices from this date to the base period. Base Period and time coverage: Base December 1978 = 100; time coverage: from January of 1979 to December of 1988. Index coverage: a) Geographic: the information is representative of the population of seven cities: Bogota, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Manizales and Pasto. b) Socioeconomic: the unipersonal households, the collective households (ore collective living quarters) and the high income households were excluded from the reference population. The 1970 Income and Expenditure Survey (EGI) revealed that the consumption structures depended, to a large extent, on the level of income of the households, more than the occupational categories used to classify them. This was the reason to change the previous classification of households between workers and employees for the classification of households between low and medium income, excluding from the index the high income households. IPC-60 Basic Survey: the Income and Expenditure Survey (EGI) realized between March 1984 and February 1985 was the basis for the IPC-60. In this survey, the weekly expenses were reported on a daily basis by the housewife using the notebook method used for Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 11 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology the first time in DANE researches. The survey included 52 weeks of collection and it covered fifteen cities. Base Period and time coverage: Base December 1988 = 100; time coverage: from January1989 to December 1998. Index Coverage a) Geographic: the information is representative of the population of thirteen cities with its respective metropolitan areas or zones of influence, and contributes to a greater representativeness of the urban national index with: Bogotá, Medellín, Cali, Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Manizales, Pasto, Pereira, Cúcuta, Montería, Neiva, Cartagena and Villavicencio. b) Socioeconomic: the reference population was defined as the set of private households located in the area of thirteen cities. The unipersonal households, collective homes and high income households were excluded. Considering that the purchasing power of the homes constitutes a determining variable of the consumption structure, the IPC-60 continues using two differentiated groups for low income and medium income households. Base Period and time coverage: base December 1988 = 100; time coverage: from January 1989 to December 1998. IPC-98 Basic Survey: the 1994-1995 Income and Expenditure Survey (EGI), was collected over the period March 1994 - February 1995. For the construction of the basket the values of consumption were adjusted taking into account the evolution of relative prices of goods and services between the survey period and December 1998. Base Period and time coverage: the base of the index corresponds to the prices averages of the month of December 1998, that is to say, the base of the index is December1998 = 100; the time coverage is from: January 1999 to December 2008. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 12 Index coverage: a) Geographic: it covers the population of 13 capital cities of departments, and includes some metropolitan areas. The cities with local index are: Bogotá; Medellín with Bello, Envigado and Itagüí; Cali and Yumbo; Barranquilla and Soledad; Bucaramanga with Floridablanca and Girón; Manizales and Villa Maria; Pasto; Pereira and Dosquebradas; Cúcuta and Los Patios, El Zulia and Villa del Rosario; Cartagena; Montería; Neiva and Villavicencio. b) Socioeconomic: the reference population was defined as the set of particular households in the urban area of thirteen cities; unipersonal households and collective households were excluded. The IPC-98 defined three groups differentiated by income: low, medium and high. The setting up of the CPI-98 is the revision of the index that has included the largest number of changes, a reason to consider it as the strongest version in the last years. The most noticeable modifications are: the change in the dissemination and production system of the index (including a fixed level and another flexible) that makes possible a quick update of the basket for the follow-up of prices), the form of calculation (using geometric ratios) and the use of models for implicit adjustment for quality. CPI-08 This is the most recent revision of the index; it includes an update of the households’ basket and of the weights for the calculations weights of calculation, as well as the increase of geographic coverage of the index. Its base is the more recent Income and Expenditure survey 2006-2007. It includes in addition a rationalization in the number of basic expenditures and items for the follow-up of prices. The technical details of this revision constitute the fundamental body of the methodology that appears in the rest of this document. In terms of time coverage, it covers from January 2009 to date. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 13 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology 2. DESIGN OF THE RESEARCH 2.1. THEMATIC DESIGN 2.1.1. Needs of information The purpose of the CPI is to establish the average monthly percentage variation of the retail prices of a representative set of goods and services consumed by households. It makes possible to analyze the economic context and is extremely useful in the decision making process of the Government and private institutions. In this sense, the index is used mainly as factor of adjustment in the determination of wages, financial statements and in the solution of labor or fiscal demands. Also, the CPI is frequently used to calculate the loss of purchasing power of the currency, in the commodity flow balances of the national accounts and as an element of analysis of the behavior of the economy. 2.1.2. Objectives General objective To aggregate, obtain and disseminate, on a monthly base, the average variation of prices of a basket of goods and services, representative of the consumption of the households, with the purpose of strategically guide the economic analysis and decision making both of the government and of the private institutions. Specific objectives To measure the average percentage variation of the prices of a selection of goods and services of household’s final consumption, which is used for the short term economic analysis. To collect monthly information in order to perform indexing processes. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 14 To determine the sources reporting prices, rates and fees in order to implement its collection and determine their changes. To construct the basket of representative goods and services for the CPI. 2.1.3. Scope The CPI measures the average percentage variation of the prices of a representative set of final goods and services consumed by households. It does not calculate the value of the family shopping basket. The data collection procedure includes 24 cities. 2.1.4 Reference framework a. Theoretical Framework1 As a part of the design of an indicator that presents the evolution of consumer prices, it is necessary to decide between the construction of an index of constant utility, known as Cost of Living Index (COLI) and a fixed basket index. In practice, the fixed basket indices are considered a good approach to the Cost of Living Indices (COLI). Cost of Living Index (COLI) Two different types of utility functions must be taken into account in their construction; the first one considers each individual as an independent consumer, whereas the second considers the aggregate of the consumers. Actually, given the typical statistical instruments (surveys) available, the construction of these two utility functions becomes difficult. In a COLI the basket of goods and services must include all those that belong to the structure of the expenditure of households without exception. This implies that it is 1 The theoretical framework described below is based on the IMF document: Consumer Price Index Manual. Theory and Practice; 2006. (In particular for concepts as COLI, CPI, Fixed weights, Variable weights and Fisher Indices). Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 15 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology not possible to apply criteria of selection of the basket from the characteristics of the goods and services, the forms of acquisition or the mechanisms of payment. Within the framework of a COLI, the function of demand depends on the prices, the quantities and the utilities: COLI = f (Pr, Q, Ui) Where: Pr = Prices, Q = Quantities, Ui = Utility Within this framework, the elaboration of a COLI tries to reveal the change required in the minimum expenditure to acquire a basket of goods and services that maintain the level of utility or well-being obtained by the consumer, when comparing and analyzing two periods. This exercise must take also into account that the utility depends on other variables besides prices, such as fashion or trend, social weights and political changes. (The households well-being will depend on the physical and social factors in which they are immersed, a reality that is not included within the concept of price). Consumer Price Index (CPI) Actually, the compilation of this type of indicators arises as an alternative that produces results close to COLI. In this case, a structure of consumers’ preferences is determined and remains fixed. As a consequence the problem of construction of a price indicator for the consumer is reduced to the measurement of quantities and prices. The structure of preferences used corresponds to the structure observed in the households’ expenditure and consumption at a given moment in time (this period might be chosen as the base period or any other current period). In the bibliography the indices known as of the Lowe type, are those that allow to determine the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 16 percentage change in the total cost for acquiring a given set of quantities (generally called basket) between any two periods being compared. In the case of consumer price indexes, the goods and services included are those for which it is possible to identify: acquisition prices, brands, qualities and units for the follow-up of prices; that is to say, they are final consumption goods and services. In this way the field of application of the research on prices is defined and is differentiated from the scope considered in the cost of living index. The success of a fixed basket index depends on representing the actual patterns of expenditure and consumption of the households when selecting the goods and services for the basket for the follow-up of prices. The population under study and the geographic coverage of the exercise are also critical contributors to the good quality of the results. The conditions in which the CPI could approach a COLI should guarantee, among others: A certain level of utility or well-being. A certain level of consumer preferences. A defined state of physical and social environment. Types of compound indices Compound Index. There are three possibilities for the calculation formula of compound indices: 1) A fixed weight index in which the weights correspond to the base period of the exercise; 2) An index with variable weights corresponding to the current period; and 3) A mix of the first two also called superlative index. Using compound indices allows to diminish the implicit biases of fixed baskets consumer prices and to fulfill the objective of the indicator, which is to inform on the variations of prices that affect the consumer. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 17 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Fixed weights Index Fixed Weights. When two periods of time are considered, a Laspeyres type index (theoretical designation of a fixed weights index) tries to respond to the question: Which is the increase or the reduction of the purchase value of a basket of goods and services, if the quantities of purchase of the first period remain fixed? These fixed quantities correspond to the pattern of expenditure and consumption of the base period of the exercise and, therefore, to the structure of preferences demonstrated by the households. The changes that appear in the value of purchase are supposed to represent the real variations of prices. (International Labor Organization- ILO. Geneva, 2003). The theory of indices indicates that the Laspeyres type indices may present an upwards bias as compared with the constant utility indices as they do not take into account that households may substitute products as they observe changes in relative prices or in their income level. Variable weights Indices Variable Weights. A variable weights index or Paasche type index tries to answer the question: Which is the increase or the reduction in the value of purchase of a basket of goods and services if the quantities currently bought had the same prices of the initial period? In the variable weights indices the structure of weights (and consequently the structure of preferences of the households) corresponds to the current period. Thus it is possible to associate the changes in the value of the basket to real variations of prices. (International Labor Organization- ILO. Geneva, 2003). The theory of indices indicates that the Paasche type indices may, in opposition to what happens with the fixed weights indices, present a downwards bias because the structure of consumption for calculating the variation is the structure of consumption of the current period, and since this structure reflects the price conditions of the current period, the estimated variations of prices may be smaller. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 18 Superlative or ideal Fisher index The Fisher indices appears as an alternative solution to the biases that may be introduced by the Laspeyres type or Paasche type indices. In that sense, they represent an approach to the COLI. Thus the ideal Fisher index pretends to incorporate the changes of price suitably reflected by a Laspeyres type index and the changes in the patterns of consumption introduced into a Paasche index. As the Fisher type index corrects the previously mentioned biases, they are also known as superlative or ideal Fisher indices. Actually, for the construction of the superlative index the information requirements are greater that in the individual case of the other indices because it is necessary the previous construction of the Paasche and the Laspeyres indices. The following tables present a practical example of the calculations made for each of the previously mentioned indices. Table 1 presents the structure of expenditure and consumption of two products and two periods of time 1 and 2. The vectors of quantity are Q1 (period 1) and Q2 (period 2); the vectors of prices (P1 and P2), and finally the values V1 and V2 determined as the product of prices by quantities. Table 1. Expenditure and consumption in two periods 1 and 2 Item Quantity in 1 Price in 1 Value in 1 Quantity in 2 Price in 2 Value in 2 Beef 1,0 1,0 1,0 0,8 1,6 1,28 Chicken 1,0 1,0 1,0 2,0 0,8 1,60 Total 2,0 2,88 Source: Example given in the Boskin Report - US Congress To develop the Laspeyres type index (Table2), the quantities observed in the first period remain fixed (Q1), and they are valued according to the prices of the first and the second period, and two total values of the basket are obtained. Finally, and on the Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 19 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology basis of the changes registered in the total value of the basket between the two moments, the index value of period 2 as compared to period 1 is 1,20. Table 2. Laspeyres type Index Item Beef Chicken Total Quantity in 1 Price in 1 Value in 1 Quantity in 1 Price in 2 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 2,0 1,0 1,0 1,6 0,8 Value estimated 2 1,6 0,8 2,4 Change 1,20 In the case of the development of the Paasche index (Table 3), the quantities used to value in both periods of time correspond to the structure observed in the second period (Q2). The index value of period 2 as compared to period 1 is 1, 03. Table 3. Paasche type index Item Beef Chicken Total Quantity in 2 Price in 1 Value in 1 Quantity in 2 Price in 2 0,8 2,0 1,0 1,0 0,8 2,0 2,8 0,8 2,0 1,6 0,8 Value estimated 2 1,3 1,6 2,9 Change 1,04 Source: Exercise mentioned in the Boskin report - Congress of the United States The calculation of the superlative or Fisher type index requires using the Laspeyres and Paasche indices and corresponds to the square root of their product: (CPI Manual IMF,ILO; OECD; WB,UN, 2006): ISF = √ITL ∗ ITP Where: ISF = ITL = ITP = Fisher Index Laspeyres type Paasche type Index Index ISF = √1,20 ∗ 1,03 =1,11 Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 20 b. Conceptual framework Laspeyres Index: fixed basket (or fixed weights) price index. This index uses the basket of goods and services of the base period. The base period is the period of reference of weights and prices. (Manual of Consumer Price Index: Theory and Practice, op. cit. p. 517). Index Number: value that shows the temporal or the space changes of a magnitude. The important characteristics in the construction of an index number are their coverage, base period, system of weights and the averaging of observations method. (OCDE - Data and Metadata Reporting). Monthly Variation: Percentage change of a month with respect to the previous month. Such rates are expressed as (Mt/Mt-1) - 1) *100 (Statistical Data and Metadata Exchange- SDMX; BIS and others 2006, Metadata Common Vocabulary.) c. Legal Framework Decree 3167 (December 26, 1968) established as a function of DANE to produce the CPI: “To establish price indexes at the producer, whole sale and consumer level, of the main goods and services, to periodically collect the prices and to publish the summary of the obtained results”. d. International References At international level most consumer price indices are designed according to the Consumer Price Index Manual (op. cit.). It includes the recommendations on the methodological particularities that affect the calculation of an index, its scope (use), basic conceptual framework, construction of weights, selection of sources, sample design and compilation of prices (International Monetary Fund, 2006). Another reference is the DQAF elaborated by the Department of Statistics of the IMF, for the evaluation of the quality of the CPI, including its main components: integrity, rigorous methodological procedures, exactitude, reliability, and utility of the statistics for the user. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 21 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Since 1995, several countries, among them Colombia, have taken the recommendations on the CPI from the Boskin report (United States) as a reference because it provides the elements of an in depth evaluation of the operational or design biases that may be introduced (Boskin, 1996). The process of design and compilation of the CPI at DANE takes into account the international recommendations in the mentioned documents, and those derived from the experiences of Statistics Canada. e. National References The CPI follows the National Code of good practices for Official Statistics. (DANE, 2011), which may be consulted in the following link: http://www.dane.gov.co/files/sen/bp/Codigo_nal_buenas_practicas.pdf 2.1.5. Design of indicators2 The following pages describe the most relevant aspects taken into account in the construction of weights and in the selection of the basket of products been followed in the CPI. Since the basic input for this activity is the EIG, this description includes the filters applied to the information collected through this survey with the purpose of limiting the results according to the scope of the CPI. a. Basic information The basic information to calculate the weights of the CPI and the selection of the basket for price collection is derived from a specialized survey that DANE applies with regularity, denominated Income and Expenditure Survey (EIG). 2 The aspects related with the calculation of weights and the basket selection are supported theoretically on IMF’s Manual: CPI, Theory and Practice (IMF, 2006). Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 22 The EIG has been applied by DANE in several periods (1970, 1984-1985, 1994-1995 and most recently in 2006-2007), and allows the construction of the patterns of expenditure and consumption of the households of the country. It inquires on the expenditures of each member of the household, their frequency (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, half-yearly and annual), as well as the level of income. The EIG applied in 2006-2007 also collected information in rural areas, and included the variable “place of purchase”, incorporating new forms of trade, directly related to the technological evolution and the strategies of trade: sales by Internet, through catalog and specialized fairs. The results obtained for this variable in particular are especially useful in the design and implementation of the collection of prices required by the CPI, since it provides information on the habits of consumption of the households and the type of establishment where the acquisition of the goods and services takes place. The survey incorporated also the variable “frequency of purchase”, questionnaire 2: urban and rural, in questionnaire 3: notebook of less frequent expenses; the resulting data allowed to detect changes in the habits of purchase of the households, related to the periodicity of purchase of the goods. Additionally, the EIG added questions identifying the characteristics of the expenditure in food by urban and rural households3. b. Generation of weights The data collected by the EIG demonstrate that there is a certain number of goods and services typically demanded by an important number of households. Nevertheless, each household selects a different combination from this set (in terms of quantities, and frequency of purchase), which determines, for each person, his/her specific patterns of expenditure or consumption, without limiting the possibility of generating individual aggregations of patterns, with the purpose of obtaining a national average or generalized pattern of consumption. This pattern defines the structure of weights of the expenditure (prices * quantities) and the selection of a basket of goods and services for monitoring prices. The basic inputs required for the structural conformation of the CPI are weights (relative importance) of each item within total households’ expenditure, and the 3 For more details on the EIG survey please refer to the methodological document: http://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/fichas/Ingresos_gastos.pdf (EIG Survey 2006-2007) Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 23 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology basket for monitoring prices. With these elements the fixed and flexible structure of the CPI may be created. Summarizing: it is possible to determine an average consumption pattern that defines basic consumptions, which combined with the monthly collection of prices, makes the calculation of the CPI possible. The CPI is defined as a statistical indicator that measures the average change of the prices of a representative set of consumption goods and services, acquired by resident households within the national territory through a monetary expenditure. It is necessary to determine those articles included within the scope of the research. Consumption Goods or services: goods or services that the members of the household use for the satisfaction of their wants and needs. This definition excludes the investments made by households in financial assets such as shares or bonds, the purchase of a dwelling, of artworks, gold, or precious stones. Monetary expenditure: it originates when a household pays using cash, a check, a debit or credit card, or any other form of financial liabilities. The CPI is limited to monetary expenditures, because they are observable and can easily by registered. The CPI excludes those goods or services provided free of charge , donations of religious or charitable character, as well as the payments of income taxes, contributions to social security and gratuities because they do not correspond to purchases of goods and services. In the case of the licenses, they are excluded because there is no clear relationship between the payment and the counterpart received by the household in terms of the service offered with occasion of the supervision, regulation or control by public entities. The international reference (IMF, 2006) does not determine a clear position on the matter and suggests the need of analysis of the particular cases of each country. In the Colombian CPI the licenses required to own and use land, vehicles including cars, motorcycles, airplanes and boats for fishing and recreation are classified conventionally as taxes so that they are excluded from the measurement4. In the case of insurance, the CPI compilation manual recognizes two types of them: life and nonlife insurances, where the household makes a unique payment, which 4 In the case of taxes, the payments made by the household does not entitle for a clear counterpart from the Government, in terms of a service offered with a given frequency, quantities and particular specifications. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 24 includes the payment for the coverage of the risk and the payment for the insurance service itself. Payment for the coverage of the risk: it corresponds to the part of the premium that is allocated to the common fund that at the end endorses the payment of the claim, if the risk event occurs. It is known as the net premium. In the case of nonlife insurance, it is treated as a transfer of resources, because the payment becomes a contribution to a common fund. In the case of life insurance, the net premium is viewed as a form of investment. In both cases, the payment for the coverage of risk should be excluded from the scope of the CPI. Payment for the insurance service: it is the part of the premium corresponding to the purchase of the insurance service provided by the insurance companies and their network. This part of the premium that covers the service must be included within the CPI. The international experience has indicated the technical difficulty to efficiently make the difference between the gross premium and its components: Gross premium = Net premium + Payment of the insurance service, It would be ideal to have direct information on the value of the payments of the insurance services. Because of the lack of information, the CPI takes the value of the gross premium as a proxy of household’s expenditure in insurance services. Nowadays the payment of insurance services include: payments for prepaid medical services, complementary plan of health social insurance services and the premiums for all risk insurance policies for cars and other vehicles. Other items excluded from the CPI The CPI excludes the interest payment that may generate a commercial transaction on credit. Consumption on own account (nonmarket operations) and generally all those cases where it is not possible the determination of the price of transaction associated to a market (operations that do not imply a relation of purchase and sale) are also excluded. Housing services expenditure The household that owns his dwelling receives a service from it. The imputed value of this service is treated as a nonmonetary expenditure included in the CPI whereas the expenditure paid by the homes renters is included as a monetary expenditure. It is important to clarify that the purchase of dwellings is considered as an investment and Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 25 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology as a consequence, is excluded from the CPI. The payment of interest on housing loans is also excluded. Weights results The weights are obtained from the information collected by the EIG in the period October 2006- September 2007, for a total of 35,998 households (total national sample). This survey defined the value of the budget dedicated by the households for the acquisition of each of the goods and services that comprise their final consumption expenditures. This research includes the expenses according to their frequencies: daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual. The construction of the structure of weights by level of income and city is based on the expenditures collected by the EIG once expanded and transformed to estimate the annual expenditure. The groups of expenditure by level of income and city that are added as to find the total weights are derived from the aggregation by functions of use and nature of the expenditure associated to each good or service. The expenditure groups are the following: foods, housing, clothing, health care, education, recreation, transport, communications, and other expenditure). The households provided information on their composition, location, age profile and income, as well as their particular and regular expenses (ex, leasing, expenses in electricity, gas, etc.), through a detailed description of their day to day expenditure over an 8 days period5. The procedures followed in the processing the EIG in a format that fit the characteristics of the CPI are summarized below: 1. Only the households located in the departments capitals covered by the CPI were selected (including their metropolitan zones, if relevant). The unipersonal and collective households were excluded. The application of this filter left a total of 24,808 households. 5 EIG has 4 questionnaires. Nº 2 and Nº 4 are used for collecting the information on day to day expenditures and personal expenditures. Module C of Questionnaire Nº 2 and Questionnaire Nº 3 are used for expenditures with frequencies above one week and for less frequent expenditures. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 26 2. The information related to donations made by the households was discarded (they are not considered expenditure by CPI). The items excluded (as investments and transfers) have been already described. 3. The records that reported forms of payment different from cash and credit were left out of the database. Among them those corresponding to consumption for own final use, payments in work or in goods, barter, exchanges or gifts. In the specific case of expenditures associated to purchases of vehicles and air tickets, the construction of weights used complementary sources: for the case of vehicles, the data produced by Econometría (private organization, specialized in the generation of information related to this activity); and for air tickets the information on the number of passengers by route, provided by the Aerocivil6. Finally, the results obtained were compared with those derived from the 1994 EIG and with those used for determining the weights in CPI 98. The EIG collected the information based on the COICOP classification (Classification of Individual Consumption according to Purpose) that uses as criterion of construction the origin of the item. Nevertheless the construction of weights and subsequent selection of the basket required to fit the results within the classification used in CPI, which is based on levels of affinity among items, following logic of substitution. The results derived from the calculation of weights for CPI 98, and for CPI 08 (today in use) are presented in the tables that follow. Table 4 shows the weights of the different expenditure groups, according to the levels of income and total population in IPC-98. When this index was constructed eight (8) groups of expenditure were used. It may be observed that the FOODS group has the greater weight followed by the HOUSING group. 6 AEROCIVIL is the public institution in charge of controlling and regulating the civil aviation activity in the country and guaranteeing its organized development. (www.aerocivil.gov.co). Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 27 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Table 4. IPC_98. Weights of the expenditure groups, by levels of income Low income Medium income High income TOTAL Food 41,42 30,18 14,70 29,51 Housing 28,31 29,12 31,37 29,41 Clothing 7,29 7,92 5,78 7,31 Health care 4,26 4,06 3,39 3,96 Education 3,57 5,30 4,95 4,81 Entertainment 2,25 3,77 4,69 3,60 7,29 12,17 23,67 13,49 5,60 7,48 11,46 7,89 CPI description Transportation and communication Other expenditure Source: DANE. The information collected by the EIG in 2007-2008 led to the weights used in the present compilation of the CPI (design IPC-08). The differentiation of the expenses on Transport and Communications modified the number of groups (CPI-08 has nine (9) expenditure groups), and the weight of the group HOUSING is greater than the weight for FOODS (See Table 5) for all income groups except the low income one. Table 5. IPC_08. Weights of the expenditure groups, by levels of income CPI description Low income Medium income High income TOTAL Food 34,66 27,09 18,24 28,21 Housing 29,74 30,42 29,66 30,10 Clothing 5,68 5,11 4,20 5,16 Health care 2,04 2,41 3,39 2,43 Education 4,79 5,99 6,83 5,73 Entertainment 2,33 3,19 4,43 3,10 Transportation 11,03 15,32 23,88 15,19 Communications 3,14 3,98 4,03 3,72 Other expenditure 6,59 6,47 5,35 6,35 Source: DANE Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 28 Levels of income (weights compilation) The compilation of CPI produces results according to the level of income of the households. The construction of weights for these levels of income (high, medium and low), takes into account the behavior of the income observed in the households of each city. The procedure was to divide the households in three groups, ordering the sample according to the average income from low to high. The households with low income correspond to the first 50% of this ordering; the medium income correspond to the subsequent 45% and finally the high income level corresponds to the upper 5% group. The structure of the households’ consumption expenditure by level of income were analyzed, with the purpose of obtaining their weights. c. Selection of the basket Monitoring prices requires the selection of a representative set of goods and services (basket), by applying general or particular criteria to the information of expenditures reported by the households. The criteria of selection of general character that were applied to the goods and services were: To determine characteristics that facilitate the monitoring of prices. These characteristics include among others, the possibility of identifying a price, a base unit, sources, as well as the selection of the monitoring specifications in order to identify the qualities of items. These elements make possible the detection of “pure price change effect”. To have a reasonable possibility of permanent availability in the market. In addition to these general conditions, the following specific criteria in the process of selection of the basket were applied: Share in expenditure This criterion defines which goods and services will be included according to their share within different levels or subtotals of expenditure (including total expenditure). The international community accepts different forms for this criterion: from the historical behavior of weights to the more recent structures of households’ consumption expenditure. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 29 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology The historical analysis of weights uses the income and expenditure surveys applied in different periods, in order to establish the evolution (gain or loss) of the relative weight of each expenditure and to decide from this analysis the inclusion or exclusion of a given item. It is also possible to apply the item inclusion criterion from a particular point in time. The date of this cross-section is based on the particularities of each country, but it is generally selected arbitrarily. By using this variant, it is possible to define cross-section criteria that might be different according to different levels of aggregation (subtotals of expenditure), based on the variability of the prices, for instance: a criterion is defined for the products included in the FOODS group and a different one for the rest of the basket. The international recommendations describe as one of the principles of construction of the baskets, to take into account the share of the expenditure within the sub-groups, but also in lower categories (class of expenditure and basic expenditure), so as to assure a greater representativeness of the price effect for each level. In IPC-08, the application of the cross-section criterion for inclusion within the basket, led to the inclusion of any good or service representing 5% or more of the expenditure within its subclass t and 0.01% or more of total expenditure. Through the application of this criterion, the selected basket represented more than 90% of the structure of household’s expenditure. Frequency of demand It is used as a selection criterion, in particular to determine the forced inclusion of an item. Most statistical systems do not carry out a frequency analysis of demand. In the case of the Colombian CPI, since the methodology of the IPC-407, this parameter of classification has been used, and it is determined as a percentage of the population. If an item is demanded by more than 30% of the households, it must be included in the basic basket disregarding its relative weight in the expenditure. Analysis of the evolution of the share of expenditure The analysis of the evolution of the structure of expenditure and consumption by households based on the information collected in EIG 1994-1995 and 2006-2007 led to the selection of goods and services whose growth in the share of 7 Used by DANE from 1979 to 1988. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 30 expenditure has been important, even if those goods and services were not initially included in the last EIG using the share of expenditure criterion. Expectations of growth in the demand for a good or service This particular criterion leads to the inclusion of products that appear for the first time in the income and expenditure survey; present a low share of expenditure and a low frequency of demand but exhibits important expectations of growth in the short and medium term. Its exclusion would cause a possible rapid outdating of the basket for monitoring prices. Composition of the CPI basket (structure) The system of item classification used by the EIG follows the scheme of the COICOPClassification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose. Its main classification criterion is based on the origin of the item. During the structuring of the basket, calculation of weights and exercises of comparison and evolution of the CPI it was necessary to relate the classification used in CPI with COICOP. In the system of aggregation of the CPI the selected goods and services are organized in a way that guarantees that each good or service occupies a unique place and that it is always possible to obtain the total of a category as a result of the aggregation of simpler levels, thus: Obtaining the Groups of expenditure from the aggregation of sub-groups. Obtaining the Sub-groups of expenditure from the aggregation of classes. Obtaining the Classes of expenditure from the aggregation of basic expenditures. Obtaining the basic expenditure from the aggregation of items or varieties. The definition of the general structure of the CPI, 1998 revision and 2008 design (IPC-98 and IPC-08); have included the following international recommendations8: 8 The recommendations have been summarized in the CPI Manual (IMF and others, 2006). Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 31 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology General criteria and conditions The classification of goods and services used corresponds to the classification of household final consumption expenditure used in National Accounts, specifically the final uses that they report. The chosen structure assures the continuity of the statistical information, and guarantees a level that allows its reasonable use by the users. The generated structure allows a certain degree of international comparability, at least with those statistical systems where the social and economic conditions of the countries make the comparison meaningful. The selected structure must minimize the biases in the measurement of the price effect associated with household final consumption expenditure, a type of bias typically present when consumer price indexes are compiled from fixed baskets. Particular criteria Functions of use from the point of view of the consumers have been identified for the estimation of aggregates. Substitution and complementarity processes in the expenditure have been identified for the construction of aggregates. Components of the new structure of the CPI From the revision made to the IPC-98, DANE derived the design of a methodologic variant applicable to price indexes of the Laspeyres type, consisting of identifying two general levels in the structure, with differences in their characteristics and the form to be used to update them. These levels consist of a fixed component complemented by a flexible level, which determines appreciable differences with respect to previous structures. Fixed level This is the part of the index structure that may be updated only with information from a new household expenditure survey. This implies that during the inter-survey period the associated weights remain unchanged. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 32 The fixed level is characterized as being the part of the structure that will be object of dissemination and publication, using the traditional framework of a Laspeyres type index (each level of expenditure has a fixed weight, determined from the EIG data). In the CPI the fixed level includes four categories. When describing them from the higher to the smaller level of aggregation we find: 1) group of expenditure, 2) subgroup of expenditure, 3) class of expenditure and 4) basic expenditure. Group of expenditure: it is the highest level of the structure, the updated version of the index keeps the concepts and nature of the groups of expenditure of IPC-98. The only difference consists on the introduction of a new group, resulting from the division in two groups of “Transport and Communications”.9 Table 6. Structure by groups of expenditure: CPI_98 and CPI_08 CPI_98 CPI_08 1. Food 1. Food 2. Housing 2. Housing 3. Clothing 3. Clothing 4. Health care 4. Health care 5. Education 5. Education 6. Entertainment and culture 6. Entertainment and culture 7. Transportation and communication 7. Transportation 8. Other expenditure 8. Communication 9. Other expenditure Source : DANE Sub-group of expenditure: it corresponds to the following level of detail of the results. (There is a conceptual equivalence between the IPC-98 and the IPC-08). Table 7 next, shows in comparative form the structure by sub-groups for CPI-08 and CPI-98: 9 The splitting of the “Transportation and Communication” group is due to the behavior of prices in the last years for these two services and a clear increase in the expenditure share of “Communication” according to EIG 2006-2007. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 33 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Table 7. Structure by groups of expenditure: CPI_98 and CPI_08 Code CPI_98 Code CPI_08 11 Cereals and bakery products 11 Cereals and bakery products 12 Roots and plantain 12 Roots and plantain 13 Vegetables 13 Vegetables 14 Fruits 14 Fruits 15 Meat and meat derivatives 15 Meat and meat derivatives 16 Fish and seafood 16 Fish and seafood 17 Milk, eggs, oils and fats 17 Milk, eggs, oils and fats 18 Other foods 18 Other foods 19 Food away from home 19 Food away from home 21 Housing services 21 Housing services 22 Fuel and utilities 22 Fuel and utilities 23 Household furniture 23 Household furniture 24 Domestic appliances 24 Domestic appliances 25 Other domestic tools 25 Other domestic tools 26 Household textiles 26 Household textiles 27 Household cleaning products 27 Household cleaning products 31 Clothing 31 Clothing 32 Footwear 32 Footwear 33 Clothing and footwear services 33 Clothing and footwear services 42 Health care goods and services 42 Health care goods and services 41 Health care professional services 41 Health care professional services 43 Private insurance expenditure 43 Private insurance expenditure 51 Training and education 51 Training and education 61 Cultural items and related 61 Cultural items and related 62 Recreational equipment 62 Recreational equipment 63 Entertainment and recreational services 63 Entertainment and recreational services 71 Personal transportation 71 Personal transportation 72 Public transportation 72 Public transportation 73 Communication services 81 Communication services 81 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 91 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 82 Personal care products and services 92 Personal care products and services 83 Jewelry and other personal items 93 Jewelry and other personal items 84 Other miscellaneous goods and services 94 Other miscellaneous goods and services Source: DANE Note: The breakdown of Transportation and Communication Services modified the codes for the shadowed groups Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 34 Class of expenditure: the identification of classes tries to catch the combined price effect, grouping very similar categories or that may work as substitutes, associating the purpose. Basic expenditure: it is the basic level of the structure, and catches a very pure price. It also corresponds to the lowest level for which fixed weights is established. In some cases, it can be the direct equivalent of a good or service. Flexible level Since version 98, the CPI has a flexible structure. That means that this level may be modified based on specialized economic and statistical analysis identifying changes in the revealed patterns of consumption in the monitoring of prices. This flexibility makes it possible to quote prices on an ampler range of goods and services, capturing therefore the heterogeneity of the demand between individuals and regions of the country. It also facilitates a more rapid update of the patterns for monitoring prices. Another advantage of using a flexible structure consists in the calculation of geometric average to calculate simple indices, making explicit the processes of substitution by consumers between items or between varieties of items. The use of the geometric averages provides mathematical consistency, since when using paired samples, the percentage variation between averages of prices, is equal to the average of percentage variations. Finally the flexible level allows to capture the price effect that entails the appearance of a new item, even when there is no associated weight of expenditure in this level (constructed from the EIG). The incorporation is applied by reweighing the expenditure among the items already included in the basic expenditure in which the new good or service could be located. The flexible level in the new CPI can comprise items or varieties of items, depending on its relative importance within the consumption expenditure pattern of the households. The basic expenditure should have the following characteristics: Basic expenditure defined by a unique item: this situation requires the identification, among the basic expenditures, of items, which level of expenditure, frequency of demand and generalized importance in all the cities that compose the geographic scope of the index, makes that they deserve this category, among them: rice, potatoes, bread, milk, cheese, medical consultation, etc. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 35 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology In these cases, the calculation of the variation of prices concentrates in identifying varieties of the same product that could constitute a substitution or a complementarity in terms of expenditure. Basic expenditure defined as an aggregate of goods or services: this situation includes the identification of some elements of the expenditure that do not have enough importance to constitute a basic expenditure individually; nevertheless the monitoring of prices of these goods and services is interesting in the short or medium term. This explain the structuring of basic expenditures by aggregating goods or services of homogenous characteristics or price behavior. For the previously described basic expenditures, the variation of prices is obtained from the average of variations, first by items and then these variations are added until the level of basic expenditure. This variant allows capturing the patterns of regional consumption, since it admits the definition of the generic basic expenditure, nourished from the different items that make up differentiated patterns of consumption. In this way the adoption of a homogenous national structure of weights by items might be avoided, and the adoption of weights according to the regional particularities is made possible. A similar situation appears respect of the difference in the patterns of consumption by income levels. In this case, the differences of structure by income levels are not produced because the goods and services are absolutely dissimilar, but because the share of expenditure assigned to each of them changes according to the income level. (What should be expected is that although the levels of prices of the same goods and services are different, their variations have the same behavior). The procedure indicates that it is always possible to monitor prices for different items according to the income level: (low, medium and high), within the broadly defined basic expenditure. The composition of the basket designed applying criteria previously defined, appears in Table 8. The composition determined in design IPC-98 and IPC-08 is described according to group, sub-group, class of expenditure and basic expenditure, and the number of items included in each basket. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 36 Table 8. Index structure. Groups, subgroups, classes, basic expenditure and items for CPI_98 and CPI_08 Structure level Groups CPI_08 CPI_98 9 8 Subgroups 34 34 Classes 88 79 Basic expenditures 181 179 Items or varieties 423 408 Source : DANE Monitoring housing prices It is generally accepted that the valuation of non-monetary expenditures should be based on market prices for actually traded similar products. In the case of estimating the imputed rentals for owner-occupied dwellings in the CPI (), the variation in the actual rentals is assigned, with the understanding that this is a good approach. This estimation excludes the inclusion of the expenditure associated with the repair and maintenance of dwellings in the CPI since these expenditures are inputs for the production of the imputed rentals. According to the characteristics of households expenditure observed in the EIG, by city, the actual rental is based on the variations in the rental of a house, an apartment or a room. The imputed rentals on the other hand, exclusively include the rentals of an apartment or a house. Methodology of calculation of the CPI The calculation of the CPI by income level has as basic input the prices of goods and services reported by each source. All the sources of CPI are classified as follows: a) Sources from retail trade: they provide information on prices for goods and services, excluding housing rentals, domestic service, housing management services and public services. b) Sources on rentals: those sources provide information on dwelling rentals, domestic services and housing management services. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 37 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology c) Sources on public services: they provide information on prices of public utilities: electricity, telephone, water supply, sewage and waste collection services. Classification applicable to the sources described as retail trade: Large Cities In the big cities it is possible to classify the sources according to their geographic location, the characteristics of the establishment and the type of consumers who shop there: Group 1 sources. Located in zones of the city with predominance of socioeconomic strata 1, 2 and 3, that is to say, they are the retail trade businesses corresponding to those strata located in their area of influence. Group 2 sources. Located in zones of the city with predominance of socioeconomic strata 4, 5 and 6, that is to say, they are the retail trade businesses corresponding to those strata located in their area of influence. Group 3 sources. Located in the commercial zones of the cities, that is to say, without predominance of any socioeconomic stratum or residential use, they are the places where all the socioeconomic strata are supposed to shop. Small Cities The small cities have a single commercial zone located in the city center; all the retail trade establishments have been assigned to the Group 3 source. The classification by source group defines the level of income to which the prices collected will be assigned as follows: Sources group 1 and 3 participate in the calculation of the low income level. Sources group 2 and 3 participate in the calculation of the medium income level. Sources group 2 participate in the calculation of the high income level. For the case of the sources of rentals and public services the criterion applied differs, since the determination of the group refers the possible stratification: Group 1 sources. Concern strata 1 and 2. (They influence the calculation of low income level) Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 38 Group 2 sources. Concern strata 3 and 4. (They influence the calculation of medium income level) Group 3 sources. Concern strata 5 and 6. (They influence the calculation of high income level) The calculation of the CPI is based on price relatives by source from which it is possible to obtain, using geometric averages, the average variation of the price relative for each item according to the level of income. In a further stage, the weighted arithmetic average is used in the construction of the indices for the basic expenditure by income levels and total. The aggregation using the arithmetic average allows to obtain the rest of indices of the structure. The calculation of the total CPI by city or at national level is based on the calculation of the indices by income level. Figure 1 presents the general scheme that defines the calculation of the CPI: in each city there is a flexible level, which aggregation generates the basic expenditures, classes, sub-groups, groups and a total for this city. The aggregation of the 24 cities included makes it possible to compile the 24 cities total. Figure 2 summarizes the impact of the collection of prices in each type of commercial source within the calculation of the CPI. The information of all those that impact the low level of income (sources type 1 and 3), make it possible to calculate the basic expenses, classes, sub-groups and groups of that level, whereas the information of sources type 2, impact exclusively the high income level. The calculations corresponding to the average level of income, on the other hand, includes the sources type 2 and 3. The aggregation of all the resulting indices by income levels (according to the expenditure aggregation), leads to the total index by income levels, for basic expenditure, classes of expenditure, sub-groups and groups. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 39 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Figure 1. General scheme for Indices compilation, by level of income for each city Figure 1. General scheme for Indices compilation, by level of income for each city. Country Total City 1 City 24 Flexible level Flexible level Basic Expenditure Basic Expenditure Basic Expenditure Class Class Class Sub-group Sub-group Sub-group Group Group Group CPI-City 1 CPI-City 24 CPI-Country Total Source : DANE Source : DANE Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 40 Figure 2. Calculation Scheme Figure 2. Calculation scheme by source group (commercial) Indices compilation scheme F L E X I B L E S T R U C T U R E Source 1 Source 3 Low income Source 2 Middle Income Higher income Total Income Expenditure B Low Income Expenditure B Middle Expenditure B Higher Income Total Expenditure B F I X E D S T R U C T U R E Class G Low income Class G Middle Class G Higher Income Total Class G Subgroup G Low income Subgroup G Middle Subgroup G Higher Income Total Subgroup G Group G Low income Group G Middle Group G Higher Income Total Group G Total Low income Total Middle Total Higher Income Total City Source : DANE Procedure of calculation The procedure of calculation of the CPI, starting from the simplest level to the total is described in the following paragraphs: Simple Relative indices by source: it represents the simple relative value of the behavior of prices for a given specification in a source (variation of the price of an item in a specific source). Its objective is to determine the behavior of the prices Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 41 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology for an item or variety between two periods of time, referring to a same base unit for the same source. The calculation form is: IRS = (Pt / P t-1) Where: IRS = Simple Relative index by source Pt = Price in the current period Pt-1 = Price in the previous period The source of information for the construction of the IRS is the Unique Collection Form (FUR), in physical and magnetic format, which is consolidated in the database. Geometric Average of simple relative indices by source: it corresponds to the first calculated aggregation, determined by the geometric average of simple relative indices by source for each item or variety; it shows the average behavior of the prices, for an item or variety, within the sources that provide information on it. The calculation form is: PGISR = n√ISR1 ∗ … ∗ ISR n Where: PGISR=Geometric average of simple indices for an item or variety ISR= simple relative index by source n = number of sources that provide the price for an item or variety Weighted arithmetic average of geometric averages of simple relative indices: the weights assigned to each level of expenditure are used. Each item or variety, determines the average behavior of the variation of the prices. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 42 This calculation allows to update the index of the basic expenditure of the previous period. The calculation formula is: IPAGB = ∑ α∗PGISR ∑α Where: IPAGB= Weighted Arithmetic Average of geometric averages of simple relative indices PGISR= Geometric average of simple indices for an item or variety a = Weigh of each item or variety referred to its basic expenditure Index of local basic expenditure: it represents the index for the first level of the fixed part of the CPI. Its objective is to determine the level of the index of each basic expenditure in the period of reference as a result of chaining the index of the previous period with the weighted arithmetic average of the geometric averages of simple relative indices for the basic expenditure. The calculation formula is: IGB t = IGB t-1 * IPAGB Where: IGB t-1 = index of basic expenditure for the immediately previous month. IPAGB = Weighted arithmetic average of the geometric averages of simple relative indices for the basic expenditure Index of total basic expenditure: it represents the index for the first level of the fixed part of the CPI for the aggregate of cities and for each city (adding income levels). Its objective is to determine the level of the index of total basic expenditure in the period of reference as a result of a double- weighted average of the level of the indices of expenditure by income levels. The formula is: Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 43 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology IGBT = ∑ ∅ ∗ β ∗ IGB ∑∅ ∗ β Where: IGBT= index of total basic expenditure IGB = index of basic expenditure by income levels Ø = weight of the level of national or local income in the national total = weight of the basic expenditures in the income level of the city Index of expenditure class: the index of expenditure class represents the index for the second level of the fixed part of the CPI. Its objective is to determine the level of the index of the expenditure class in the period of reference as the result of a weighted arithmetic average of the level of the indices of the basic expenditure that form each class IGC = of expenditure. The formula is: ∑ β ∗ IGB ∑β Where: ICG = index of expenditure class IGBT = index of basic cost = weight of the basic expenditures Index of expenditure subgroup: the expenditure sub-group represents the index for the third level of the fixed part of the CPI. The calculation formula is: ISG = ∑ β ∗ ICG ∑β Where: ISG = index of expenditure sub-group Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 44 ICG = index of expenditure class = weight of the expenditure class Index of expenditure group: the expenditure group represents the index for the fourth level of the fixed part IGG = of the CPI. The formula is: ∑ β ∗ ISG ∑β Where: IGG = index of expenditure group ISG = index of expenditure sub-group = weight of the expenditure sub-group Total index as average of the expenditure groups: represents the index for the total CPI, as an average of the expenditure groups. The formula is: ITG = ∑ β ∗ IGG ∑β Where: ITG = total index of expenditure groups IGG = index of the expenditure group = weight of the expenditure group Total index as average of basic expenditures: it represents the index for the total CPI, as an average of basic expenditures. The formula is: ITG = ∑ β ∗ IGB ∑β Where: Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 45 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology ITG = total index of expenditure groups IGB = index of basic expenditure = weight of the basic expenditure Methodology of calculation applied for certain items of the CPI There are particular calculations applied to certain items of the basket for monitoring prices. The form of calculation for each item is described as follows: Vehicles. The calculation is performed through a model by components that defines the quality of the item based on its technical characteristics. It requires the identification of the more important parts and characteristics of the vehicle and the changes that appear. (Within the analyzed components are the brand and model of the vehicle, the supplied characteristics of performance of the motor, conditions of the braking and injection subsystems and the variables associated with the size of the vehicle as well as the accessories). Computers. The calculation is performed using a hedonic model developed by Statistics Canada and applied in Colombia considering that the technological goods have a global market, meaning that the variations determined by the technological innovations modify in a similar way the quality offered in the goods. A hedonic model makes it possible to have parameters that define how similar or not (possibility of substitution) may be two specifications of computers, admitting that due to the technological innovation it is not likely that two computers be exactly equal in two periods of time. The model requires as input information, the data on RAM, the capacity of the hard disk and the speed of processing, assigning a maximum coefficient of variation to accept that two computers may be qualified as substitutes. Lotteries. The collection of data and the analysis of the item lotteries require information on the price of the tickets, the number of tickets (and fractions of them) offered to the public and the associated prize. The analysis of the price has to consider the probability of winning and the value of the prize. The analysis of the information incorporates the three above mentioned elements: price of the ticket (or fraction); probability of winning and amount of the winnings, in order to determine the price that affects the public. An increase of the winnings, a Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 46 decrease in the number of tickets supplied by drawing10 or a reduction in the price of tickets, imply a real decrease of the price of the lottery; whereas decreasing the value of the prize, increasing the number of tickets supplied by drawing, or increasing the value of the ticket (fraction), increase the final price of the lottery. The individual and aggregate analysis of the three components determine the effect of the price for this item within the calculation. Nevertheless, the behavior of the sale price of the ticket (fraction) is a fundamental element to be considered within the variation, since it is the effect with greater incidence in the public. The collection of data on lotteries takes place in all the cities that have this service. Nevertheless, given the participation that certain particular brands have in the market of other cities, an item “national lottery” is constructed. It adds the variation of the lotteries with national presence (extending its local market). The identification of the lotteries with national market and its relative weight with respect to the local lotteries is part of the updating process of the flexible level of the collection basket. Insurances (all risk policies for vehicles). Due to the difficulties in the determination of the payment for the insurance service, and its differentiation with respect to the gross premium, the monitoring of prices of insurance is defined by this value. In the case of all risk insurances for vehicles, data are collected in the main and greater capital cities. Each has observations and price relatives that affect their zone of influence. Soccer. Soccer is included within the basic expenditure of the item “Entertainment and recreation related services”. The price of the entry tickets to the matches of the official tournaments is monitored. The definition of the proportion of households attending the stadiums includes the professional teams of the tournament a reach a minimum average number of assistants per year. For tournament B, the teams that are included are those for which the average number of attendants surpasses the minimum number reported by the teams of tournament A. The calculations take into account the proportion of assistants to one or other team (in the cases of cities that have more than one team), as well as the reports on 10 A reduction in the number of issued fractions or tickets increases the probability of winning and implies a reduction in the price; the increase of the number of issued fractions or tickets reduces the probability of winning and implies a net price increase; there is an inverse relationship between these two variables. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 47 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology average number of assistants according to the categories of seats in the stadium, with the purpose of establishing the changes observed among those categories. The price changes are calculated on a monthly basis by comparing the price corresponding to the period of reference, with the price of the immediately previous month, taking care that the structure of assistants (category of places), be comparable. Public Utilities. The calculation of public utilities (electricity, water supply, sewage system, refuse collection, domiciliary gas and telephone) requires the prices practiced in each of the socio-economic strata (incorporating the particular treatments for subsidies or contributions); as well as the average consumption of households and the number of users. The definition of the price for the calculation of the simple relative index initiates with the establishment of the value of the average invoice corresponding to the households belonging to each strata: Average Invoice Value by stratum= Fixed charge11+ (Price per consumed unit * monthly average households consumption by stratum) It is important to mention that when the price per consumed unit is structured in price bands (for example, when “sumptuary” consumptions are introduced, which price is higher); the calculation of the average value of the invoice by stratum includes this differential and the average consumption reported by the service enterprises monthly. In order to calculate the public utilities by income level, the average values of the invoices by stratum are added, using a weighted arithmetic mean, in which the weight of each stratum is based on the number of users. 2.1.6. Planning of results The results of the CPI are published monthly in a technical bulletin, a press release, annexes in Excel and a presentation that describes the results for the national total and by cities. A dynamic consultation procedure is also available, by which the users have access to historical series that they can control using different variables such as city, income level, group, sub-group, and basic expenditures as well as different types 11 This value may be conditioned by contributions and subsidies depending on the stratum. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 48 of indicators: index, change, contribution and share (monthly, current year and last 12 months). Indicators for dissemination The following paragraphs describe the indicators generated by the CPI (monthly) and the mechanisms that make it possible to link series of indices. The main indicator generated by the CPI is the index. Nevertheless, the research also provides changes, contributions and shares (monthly, current year and last 12 months). Changes A monthly change is the ratio of the index in the month of reference to the index of the previous month, less 1 in percentage terms. VM = ( Index in the month of reference − 1) ∗ 100 Index in the previous month Where VM is the monthly change Change in current year is the ratio of the index of the month of reference with the index of December of the previous year, less 1 in percent terms. Index in the month of reference VAC = ( − 1) ∗ 100 Index in December of the previous year Where VAC is the change in the current year Change in the last twelve months is the ratio of the index in the month of reference with the index of the same month of the previous year, less 1 in percent terms. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 49 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Index of the month of reference V12M = (Index of the sane month one year before − 1) ∗ 100 Where V12MA is the change in the last twelve months Contributions A contribution measures how much each hierarchic level in the classification (group; sub-group, class and basic expenditure) contributes to the monthly, current year or last twelve months changes of the CPI. Monthly contribution CM = ( Ia,last month ) ∗ Pa ∗ VMa /100 ITN,last month For example, the monthly variation of the CPI was 1.50% in June of 2009, and the contribution of the basic expenditure “rice” was 0.25 percentage points. This means that the basic expenditure “rice” contributed 0.25 percentage points to the total variation of 1.50%. (It is possible to find negative contributions to the variation). Current year contribution: Ia,December last year CAC = (I TN,December last year ) ∗ Pa ∗ VACa /100 Last twelve months contribution: Ia,same month a year ago C12M = (Index TN,same month a year ago ) ∗ Pa ∗ V12Ma /100 Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 50 Where: a = hierarchic level I = index of the hierarchic level TN = total national P = consideration of the hierarchic level VM = monthly variation of the hierarchic level VAC = variation current year of the hierarchic level V12M = variation twelve months of the hierarchic level Share It is the percentage of the contribution of each hierarchical level (basic, class, subgroup and group) expenditure to the variation of the total index. Monthly Share: CMhierarchical level PM = ( ) ∗ 100 Monthly variation Assume that the monthly variation of the CPI was 1.50% in June of 2009, and that the share of the basic expenditure rice was 15.00%. This means that the basic expenditure “rice” participate with 15.00% in the total variation of the CPI (It is possible to find negative shares, constructed from variations that indicate losses in prices). Current year share: CAChierarchical level PAC = ( ) ∗ 100 Current year variation Participation last 12 months: Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 51 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology C12M hierarchical level P12M = (Last twelve ) ∗ 100 months variation Linking Methodology This paragraph has the purpose of offering to the users the necessary tools to link the series of the IPC-08 with the old base IPC-98. The connection procedure, also known as base change, is obtained following the “fixed ratio method”. The fixed ratio is given by the indices for the same period of time. Examples a. How to obtain the value of the index for January 2009 in base 98? Data available: Index December 2008 published in base 98 = 191,63 Index January 2009, published in base 08 = 100,59 January 09 CPIBase 98 = December 08 CPIBase 98 December 08 CPIBase 08 January 09 ∗ CPIBase 08 = (191,63 ∗ 100,59) = 192,76 100 b. How to obtain the value of the index November 2008 in base 08? Index November 2008 published in base 98 = 190,78 Nov 08 December 08 CPIBase CPIBase 08 08 Nov 08 = December CPIBase 98 CPIBase 98 08 Therefore Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 52 Nov 08 CPIBase 98 = December 08 CPIBase 08 December 08 CPIBase 98 Nov 08 ∗ CPIBase 98 = (190,78 ∗ 100) ∗ 190.78 = 99,56 191,63 The process turns out to be reiterative in each of the indices to link. It is necessary to modify the period of reference considering that the variations should not depend on the linking procedures. An alternative method consists in obtaining a “linking coefficient”, calculated as the ratio of the last index of previous base (in this case, CPI December 2008 base 1998=191.63) and the first index of the new base (in this case, CPI December 2008 base 2008= 100.00. The coefficient can multiply each index of the new base to find the linked series. The results obtained by this alternative method are equal to the exposed ones previously. 2.1.6.1. Output tables design The output tables published by the CPI, correspond to the different possible groupings defined: geographic (total and for each city); thematic discrimination (income group: total, low, medium and high); level of aggregation in the expenditure classification (total, group, sub-group, class and basic expenditure); required indicator (index, change, contribution and share); and period of reference (monthly, current year and last 12 months). For better information, the contents of each predefined table may be consulted in Annex 1. 2.1.7. Design of the questionnaire For the collection of prices of the basket of goods and services of IPC (IPC-98), a Unique Collection Form (FUR) was designed; during the first years it was completed on physical support. In August 2004, DANE implemented the use of Mobile Capture Devices (DMC) to directly capture the prices in the visited sources. At the moment the DMC are the regular tool for the collection of information harvesting of information is used, except in high risk zones. The design of the FUR is kept within the applicative SatForms installed in the DMC. Next the used physical form in CPI appears (Figure 3). Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 53 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology First module Includes the logo of DANE and the identification of the research: Consumer Price Index (CPI)-24 cities. In the physical form the law of statistical reserve is enunciated, to inform the informant sources on the confidentiality with which the information is treated by DANE. Also it includes the number of page and the total of pages that must be generated by source (page__ of ___). Figure 3. Unique form of collection Source: DANE Second module In the second segment (city) appears the city code (From the Political- Administrative Classification of the Country- DIVIPOLA and the name of the city). The third segment includes the source code (sector, section, and block, zone of assignment, group and consecutive number of the source). See Table 9. Table 9. Structure of the coding system for the sources Field description Length Initial position Final position Department code 2 1 2 Municipality code 3 3 5 Sector number 4 6 9 Section number 2 10 11 Block number 2 12 13 Group code 1 14 14 Class code 2 15 16 Source consecutive number 4 17 20 Total 20 Source : DANE Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 54 In the second module are also included: Name or trade name of the establishment Address of the establishment Telephone numbers of the establishment Name of the informant Previous Code. (If a previous code existed that identified the source) E-mail Fax The second module includes Section four (4-PERIOD). Period of reference for the information. The year (four digits), the month (two digits): January 01; February 02, etc.: Finally there is a box with information on items previously reported by the source, with the purpose of controlling the number of articles to collect. Questionnare body Element Nr Name Contents 5 CODE Item code (7 digits) group, subgroup, class and basic expenditure. 6 NAME-SPECIF. Item name with details of specification. These are particular to each source: trademark, variety, model, etc. 7 BASE UNIT Quantity and measure unit that the system uses as price reference. The systen converts price to this unit when the quantity reported corresponds to other unit. 8 LAST UNIT Measure unit or quantity used in a former collection. 9 LAST PRICE Price reported in the previous collection (without conversion). It is a cash price including VAT on the item. 10 11 NEW INPUT An X indicates that the item has the feature of new input WAITING PERIOD An X indicates that the item has the feature of waiting period IMMEDIATE REPLACEMENT An X indicates that the immediate replacement of the item has been made. 12 Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 55 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Element Nr Contents Name 13 COMPLEMENTARY SOURCE Completed with an X only if the information originates in a complementary source.Element 17must be completed. 14 CHANGE OF REFERENCE An X indicates that the item has the feature of change of reference. 15 16 17 18 19 INPUT OUT QUANTITY REPORTED An X indicates that the item has the feature of input out. CURRENT PRICE NOTES. New issues during collection This is a cash price and includes de VAT on the item. COMPLEMENTARY SOURCE Includes NAME , ADDRESS, TELEPHONE if a complementary source has been used. DATE OF COLLECTION DD/MM/YYYY Quantity reported for the item. Normally uses a code of a precodified listing. If not, it is described in the field provided in the MCD. See foot-note12. The fields to indicate the responsibility of the collector, the supervisor and the informant have to be completed by each of them. (For the case of the MCD, the system defines the person in charge from the profile corresponding to the access key). When using the paper form, the collector and supervisor must write down their names and include their signature, and ask for the signature and/or seal of the informant. (In the case of MCD, the informant data will be taken from the report of visited sources by city, zone and source). 2.1.8. Standards, specifications or rules of validation, consistency and imputation Consistency and basic validation of the information are realized by the DMC according to the incorporated requirements in the specifications of validation and consistency. 12 The specification used for describing the product (section 6) may change depending of the item reported: the characteristics that define a service are different from those uses for defining a good, for instance the trademark or the reference. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 56 Information as consecutive number, city code, code and name of the source, year and month of collection must be within the format. It is always possible that the fields used to define the new technical new features are not completed (when there are situations that do not justify the inclusion of a new feature). In the validation specifications the name of the variable, field, description, values that may have and the observation with respect to its completion are included. (Annex 2). Imputation processes Imputation tries to grasp the price effect that must reflect the indicator when the collector faces the temporary absence of an article or variety. The technical new feature waiting period identifies those articles for which it is impossible to locate price and specifications, and requires the assignment of a “ waiting period” for that item (brand, reference), to be again in the market. Design of processing and imputation methods The imputation procedure begins with the field observation of the temporary absence of the specification (variety) in the source that is being visited. In that case, a “waiting period” (PE) in the DMC or the physical form is registered as a technical feature. The imputation process is done with all the information collected for the month, in the city and level of income corresponding to the item. The procedure initiates with the grouping of the sources, according to the group source that corresponds to it: group 1, 2 or 3. A program calculates the geometric average of relatives by source for each item or variety, for the city and corresponding source group: PGR = Pt Pt ∗ …∗ √ Pt−1 Pt−1 n−1 Where: PGR = Geometric average relative Pt = current price Pt-1 = previous price n = number of quotes collected Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 57 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology The variation obtained is applied to the previous price of articles marked with period in delay, accepting that average variation of the market must approach the variation generated for a source in particular, if the article were available for supply: Current price = Previous Price * Relative Geometric Average the imputation mechanism does not alter the variation average observed of the totality of sources (after incorporating the quotes described with period in delay), which implies that the execution of the procedure is innocuous for effects of the calculation of the average variation prices, but allows to maintain the sources/items that experience a temporary absence of the specification (brand/reference). Given the rules of application of the new feature it cannot be consecutively applied and the total number of records with this newness cannot surpass 5% of the total of quotes for a specific item. 2.1.9. Classifications used The classification of goods and services included in the CPI research is based on the structure used by National Accounts and on the classification that was used in the IPC60 and the IPC-98. It is important to mention that the used classification maintains the lineaments of the classification of the individual consumption by purposes (Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose) - (COICOP) of the United Nations. The IPC−08, describes nine groups of expenditure (obtained splitting the group “Transport and communications”, used in IPC-98). Annex 3 describes the classification structure by the groups, sub-groups, classes of expenditure and basic expenditure. On the other hand, the index codifies the cities according to the DIVIPOLA. This structure of classification allows to maintain the historical continuity of the information of the research. For operative reasons the CPI classifies their sources of information in agreement with the characteristics of the goods and services that they supply. After they describe the classes of applicable sources in the index: Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 58 Table 10. Classes of sources Code 1 Description of the class of source Market-places, street markets 2 Supermarkets 3 Cooperative and social allowance funds supermarkets 4 Proximity (neighbourhood) markets 5 Specialized stores 6 Pharmacies and perfumer's shops 7 Specialized services establishments 8 Restaurants and chain food services 9 Rented housing 10 Hypermarkets 18 Official (public) educational establishments 19 Private schools (Controlled regime)* 20 Private schools (Free supervised regime) 21 Private schools (Free regulated regime) Source : DANE * The controlled and free (supervised and regulated) regimes refer to the payments at the charge of the student. Law 115 (1994) Decree 2253 (1995) Also, the new technical features are codified within the base, as follows: Normal report13. CR = Change of reference. Used when the collected variety presents differences in its quality and it is not possible to compare the prices. IS = Immediate Substitution. Used when the collected variety presents small changes with respect to the observed in the previous period, which allows to compare the prices PE = Waiting period. Indicates the temporary absence of the item in the source. IS = Input (quote) out. Used when the source does not sell the item. IN = Input (quote) new. Used when a new item or specification is included. 13 The quote of price is collected normally. It does not require particular indication in the database. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 59 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology 2.2. STATISTICAL DESIGN 2.2.1. Basic components Universe Constituted by all the establishments where the consumer goes to acquire goods or services for final consumption. It includes: retail trade establishments, real estate agencies or informal services of dwellings rentals, schools, higher education institutions, public services companies, health care institutions, etc. For the specific case of education, the universe is constituted by the official and nonofficial schools that offer education at pre-school, primary, secondary and intermediate levels, besides the educational establishments for formal higher education and those devoted to non-formal education. With the purpose of observing the variation of prices for dwellings rented and the owner occupied dwellings, the information is collected starting from the universe of all the rented dwellings existing in the 24 cities covered by the CPI. Objective population Corresponds to all the establishments in which the consumer acquires goods or services for final consumption. It includes retail trade establishments, real estate agencies or informal services of dwellings rentals, schools, higher education institutions, public services companies, etc. Statistical Framework CPI uses a probabilistic design in the development of the collection of information for some items included in the groups of Education and Housing. For the rest of the basket, the selection of sources is generated from non-probabilistic methods due to the complexity to locate up-date and complete frameworks allowing the selection of sources. The frameworks used for items related to Education are the Directory of Schools (2006) and the Directory of Institutions for Higher Education (2007). For the case of collecting dwelling rentals, the framework corresponds to the geographic base by blocks, based on the General Census (2005). Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 60 Variables Definition The variables included considered in the CPI are: Classification variables: City; level of income; group; sub-group: class and basic expenditure. Variable of analysis : Prices Calculated variables: Geometric average of relative of prices and weighted arithmetic average. Sources of data In the collection of prices of the items of the basket (except those associated to education expenditures, collected in schools and institutions of higher education, and the dwelling rentals) the selection of sources is generated from the expert criteria of the logistics personnel present in each one of the cities and is verified according to the geo-referenced information. The selection of sources must follow a minimum of inclusion criteria: the source enjoys an excellent affluence of buyers, has a large variety of items for retail sale and offers real possibilities of permanence in the market, so that it makes possible the regular follow-up of prices. The selection criteria are focused on representing the different places where the consumers acquire their goods and services. Geographic coverage CPI collects information in 24 capital cities of department, including the metropolitan areas for some of them. They concentrate an important part of the population of the country and represent a predominant economical and demographical dynamics. There are some items which prices are formed in a single city (typically Bogotá), for example mobile telephony, of long distance telephone service or newspapers with national circulation. In these cases, the items are marked as “national conformation”, to imply that the prices are collected exclusively in Bogotá although the impact of the change in the prices reaches the rest of the country. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 61 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology For the case of other items as the insurance “all risk” for vehicles, the collection is made in certain cities that compile the variations that finally reach their zone of influence (“regional conformation”). Geographic breakdown The CPI publishes results for 24 capital cities of department, and some metropolitan areas that correspond to the municipalities covered. The cities and metropolitan areas are: Bogotá; Medellín, Bello, Envigado and Itagüí; Cali and Yumbo; Barranquilla and Soledad; Bucaramanga and Floridablanca; Piedecuesta and Girón; Manizales and Villa María; Pasto; Pereira and Dosquebradas; Cúcuta, Los Patios, El Zulia and Villa of Rosario; Montería; Neiva; Cartagena; Villavicencio; Riohacha; Armenia; Quibdó; Sincelejo; Valledupar; Popayán; Ibagué; San Andrés; Santa Marta; Tunja and Florencia. Thematic breakdown CPI generates results according to the level of income: low, medium and high for each one of the 24 cities included and the total. The information is available for each level of expenditure: group, sub-group, class and basic cost. 2.2.2. Statistical units Unit of observation The establishments where the consumer acquires final goods and services. Unit of analysis It corresponds to the items included in the basket even though the publication requires the aggregation of items in the construction of the first fixed level (basic expenditure). Unit of sampling The establishments where the consumer acquires final goods and services. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 62 2.2.3. Periods of reference and collection Period of reference The investigation uses as period of reference the previous month. Period of collection The collection frequency related to the frequency of modification of prices. This was the reason for defining a group of frequencies: open, monthly, bimonthly, quarterly, four-month, semester and annual. This regularity guides the frequency for collection. Regularity category “open” refers to the fact that collection must be executed at the moment in which prices modify. It has been observed that prices may change at any time of the month, it is necessary to realize a special follow-up throughout the period in such a way that the changes may be detected in any day of the month. For all the items and in all the periodicities, the selected sample must be distributed uniformly over the days (months), taking into account the characteristics of each source: its group and class. Table 11 describes the periodicities associated with each item group. In clothing, for example, it is observed that the collection periodicity is quarterly. This implies that 1/3 of the sources must be collected every month of the year, assuring that for the month of reference it includes the movement of prices of the sources to be collected in this period. Thus, the sources visited in month 1, will be collected again in months 4, 7 and 10. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 63 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Table 11. Frequency of data collection Frequency Element Monthly Food Two-monthly Household supplies Personal care products Health care products Personal items Alcoholic beverages Quarterly Clothing and footware Home electrical appliances Furniture Health care services Other Each 4th month Rentals for housing Semiannual Higher education Yearly Schools Open Public services Urban transportation Transportation (intercity) Fuel Newspapers Lotteries Soccer Air tickets Source: Dane Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 64 2.2.4. Sample Design The sample design for the calculation of indices is a non-probabilistic one, due to the operative difficulty to have a complete and up-to-date the inventory of marks, that allow to identify all the sources of goods and services selected in the basket; nevertheless the size of sample is controlled to guarantee a minimum of sources for an item given the variability of the prices. This process - to control the size of sample-, is realized monthly, according to the following procedure: STEP 1. For each item the geometric average of the variation of prices between the present month and the previous one (relative) is calculated. STEP 2. From the geometric average the variance of the relative indices of the items prices is obtained. STEP 3. The quotient of the square root of the variance and the estimated price is calculated (relative error or coefficient of variation). Considering that there is seasonality in the prices, the previous steps are realized for each month of the year, obtaining then 12 relative errors for price per item. a) The record with the maximum relative error for each item is identified. b) In this record the values of the variance and the average relative index of prices is taken. c) Finally, the size of sample is calculated with the variance and the average relative index of prices considering a sampling error of 5%. The generation of errors that can be evaluated (relevant) it has been established that the analyzed item must have, at least, 5 sources for prices. The basket includes certain items of the education and housing groups. The information is collected in schools, institutions of higher education and in the rented dwellings. These sources are selected using a probabilistic design. Education institutions: the design is a stratified random sampling with probability of selection proportional to the size of the institutions in terms of number of students. The stratification variables are: city, sector (official, nonofficial) and classification of the school level (pre-school, primary, secondary and intermediate). Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 65 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Rented Housing: Selection with a probabilistic sample design of clusters and stratified. Clusters: they are integrated by the existing rented dwellings in selected blocks. Strata: city, socioeconomic stratum and number of houses in the block. The sample selects blocks; the collection process implies a preliminary task of logistic character recognized as “re-enumeration”, consisting in listing the dwellings of the selected block and identifying those that are rented. They are included as source for CPI for real rentals expenditure if they belong to a block with more than 3 rented dwellings. Sample size It is calculated based on the variability of the geometric average and a relative error (ESREL) fixed of 5%, considering the following formula: VAR (PG) TM = (ESREL∗PG)2 Where: Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 66 2.3 DESIGN OF EXECUTION 2.3.1. Training System The training of the staff assigned to the collection, supervision, analysis and local and central coordination is a factor of vital importance to succeed in any statistical procedure and is part of the process of continuous improvement. The training of the staff working on the Consumer Price Index project is oriented towards the improvement of the human resource. This process is based on the partaking of knowledge, the reading of the documents that support the statistical operation, and on sharing the experiences in the practice of the survey. A suitable training prepares the staff, to develop at the best, which has a direct impact on the perception on the research by the sources of information, as well as on the organization in charge of the generation of statistical information. The training plan concentrates mainly on self-training, based on practical exercises as a method to apprehend the theoretical basis included in methodological documents. The process of learning and apprehension of the knowledge will consider, when possible, techniques that promote the interaction of the staff in charge of the activity with the trainees. Nevertheless it is necessary to establish strategies that allow all to participate actively, avoiding that the staff with greater experience limits the interaction time of the most recent members. In order to achieve this objective activities are designed such as dramatizations and presentations in charge of all the participants (and not exclusively of the coordinators or those who exert these tasks). For that purpose, collectors, supervisors and analysts, develop small presentations of no more than 20 minutes, where the points listed below are developed including through practical exercises. Nevertheless, the coordinating staff has to be present in these activities, in order to correct and/or to verify the content of the presentation. The following is the list of topics to be developed within the training activities: Conceptual framework Geographic coverage Reference population Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 67 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Basket for observation of prices Classification of the structure of the basket Concept of item or variety Specifications of the item (Brands and Qualities) Base Unit /Collected Unit/ Base Quantity /Collected Quantity Base Price/Collected Price Calculation of variations of prices between two periods Geo-reference and Cartography (Sector, section, block) Housing unit Possible classification of sources Selection of sources Inclusion of new sources/Replacement of sources. Sources for rentals, administration costs and domestic service. Sources generated by the probabilistic survey/Sources generated by the non-probabilistic survey. New features of technical character definition - application - process system – effect in the index Imputation, promotions, special prices and discounts Periodicity of collection Items described as of monthly observation Definition and concepts associated with the “geometrical average” Items included in the national concept Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 68 Considerations on the field work Unique Collection Form and its use in the MCD sources (physical FUR) System of collection (FUR/MCD) The previously described activities imply among others, presentations by the staff in charge of the collection, the staff in charge of the supervision, the staff in charge of the analysis, the coordinating staff, field or survey assistant, readings, practical exercises - case studies, workshops, dramatizations and debates. The training exercises must take into consideration the operative particularities of each city, as well as the observations sent from DANE’s Headquarters, A complete training takes place at least once in a year (at time of the hiring process) or if the field staff without experience in collection for indices exceeds 50% of the total. At the end of these presentation exercises, all the participants should participate in the discussion of a real life practical case, in order to link the theoretical knowledge with the lived practical reality. Once this module has been finalized, it is possible to go on with the next 9 (one for each groups of expenditures of the CPI). 2.3.2 Preparatory activities Awareness process The awareness process is the responsibility of the collector (and is part of the support activities of the supervisor of the zone) and has to be implemented when he/she visits the source. The collector should explain to the source DANE’s statistical work, the objectives of the visit and of the CPI, as well as the uses of the index. The purpose of this awareness process is to improve the communication of the field staff with the source, so that the source would accept to provide the required information, in the conditions that have been stated. When it is possible, the staff could provide documents presenting the CPI, with special emphasis on the basic information. Selection of the staff Once DANE Headquarters has sent the financial resources and the required profiles for the vacant positions, the territorial directions must determine within the Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 69 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology candidates those who satisfy the actual requirements for the job, a process that consists in verifying and classifying the candidates according to their suitability for each position. The positions of the operative scheme of the CPI carried out within the territorial directions and which are in charge of the contact with the sources and the collection of quotes are the following: Collector: They are in charge of collecting the information related to the surveys. Supervisor: They are in charge of validating the information sent by the collectors. Analyst: They are in charge of controlling the coverage and the quality of the information. Once the staff has been hired, the training begins for the whole group, using tools like video projector, pamphlets, guidelines and dramatizations, as described in the section on the training system. On the other hand, the positions that apply for DANE Headquarters are those related to the logistics, thematic and systems operations. Logistic staff: They are in charge of the analysis, revision, correction and cleansing of the information coming from the territorial directions using the control of the data of the national aggregate. Thematic staff: They are in charge of the definition and updating of the methodological design of the research. Systems staff: They are in charge to provide the support, maintenance and development of the software required by the research. 2.3.3. Design of instruments The instruments for the process of the collection and control of data are: Collection Manual: It includes the basic instructions that collectors have to follow. Supervision Manual: It includes the basic instructions that supervisors have to follow. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 70 Critic Manual: It includes the basic instructions that information analysts have to follow. Users’ Manual for mobile devices: It includes the instructions and procedures to be followed in the use of the MCD. CPI User Manual: It includes the instructions and procedures to be followed in the use of the Oracle analysis platform. 2.3.4 Collection of the information The FUR is used for the collection of the information for the CPI. Presently, this form is completed using a mixed system of collection: paper (according to particular situations in the field) or directly using the MCD. The collection of quotes supposes a personal visit; information cannot be collected by telephone and, in no case, this function can be delegated to another person. The information been collected cannot be informed to third parties. The collected information is validated by the supervisor, who at the request of the analyst and based on his results, visits the source and validates the information collected in a term no greater than two days after the visit of the collector. The analyst is the person in charge of analyzing and cleansing all the collected information. The working groups are conformed in a proportion of three collectors for one supervisor and one analyst. The field work is organized so as to distribute the load; this system is generated starting off with the programming of the information of the month (the sources that must be visited in the month of reference, to collect items according to their periodicity). Based on the forms that are automatically prepared, the collectors, together with the supervisors, review, validate and determine their daily routes of work in the collection forms, indicating the sources they plan to visit. This task must be developed in such a way to distribute the workload in a balanced way over the month with the exception of the two last days that must be dedicated to the collection of perishable and the follow up of the behavior of prices of monthly observed items. Daily the analyst must unload the information collected the previous day and load the device with the sources to be visited and the items that each collector has to capture. In doing so, he controls that the programming is being implemented according to Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 71 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology what has been previously established. The collectors and supervisors begin the cycle for the day initiating their tasks from the daily programming that is loaded in the MCD. For the case of items with daily, semimonthly, quarterly, four-month, semester and annual periodicity, the collection takes into account the periodicity of each item of the basket and the distribution assigned to each of the sources. For foods, for example the sources are visited once a month. Nevertheless, for items of the clothes group (to be observed on a quarterly basis), the logistic staff must guarantee that the sample is distributed uniformly in a third part for each month; and so on for each component elements of the basket. Similarly, the homogenous distribution must guarantee that the visits to the sources are realized approximately in the same dates, for example, the food source “XXX” visited the tenth day, must be visited approximately on the same date in the following month (guaranteeing that the interval between observations is a month); for items with other periodicities, the dates of collection must be selected so that the prices are observed with the required periodicity; for example for a clothes item, source “XXX” visited on January 15 must be visited again on April 14 to16; July 14 to 16; October 14 to 16 and January 14 to 16. With respect to the collection of items with open periodicity (also denominated monthly observed items) the logistic team constantly verifies the variation of prices for every day of the month, with the purpose of guaranteeing that the index catches the changes observed throughout the period. This is the case for instance of movies, lottery, urban transport, taxi, fuels, etc. Supervision and control of the collection process The supervision procedure implies a series of activities directed to the control of the quality of the collected information, the identification of atypical situations with the sources and special behaviors of the quotes derived from the collection. The activities of the supervisor begin with the delivery of the list of sources to be collected in the month to the collector. In order to verify that this list corresponds to the sources to be visited in the corresponding period, the sources are classified by geographic zones. The lists are remitted in physical or magnetic form. Once the information has been collected and in agreement with the report of the analyst and the selection of routes to be supervised daily, he/she visits the sources to establish the veracity of the information, applying the rules indicated by the Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 72 coordinator and included in the collection manual. The items (codes) to be reviewed must be reported in the supervision list: Their record must follow the guidelines referring to the analysis and verification of the characteristics of quotes such as the relative representativeness of the sources, the selective supervision, increase or decrease of price, as well as the application of technical new features with its proper justification. In the case of inconsistencies found during the supervision process, the corrections are realized, the relevant observations are included and the information is returned to the analyst. The supervision process must concentrate on two fundamental aspects: the data related to the source and the data with respect to items or varieties. The data regarding the source include the revision and verification of: Name Address and phone number Period of collection Group and class During the supervision process and according to its results, the supervisor should inform the corresponding analyst of all the new features. In the case of the introduction of a new source, it is fundamental for the supervisor to verify the characteristics of the corresponding group and class. The data of items or varieties include the verification of the quality and completeness of the information for each item. The information associated with each item includes prices, observations and specifications. Generally the variables that must be reviewed are the following: Brand or variety Primary characteristics Secondary characteristics Base Unit Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 73 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Previous quantity and previous price Collected quantity and present price Technical new features, when required Observations, when required The supervisor initiates his verification with the data of the source and continues with information on items or varieties. Within the supervision over items, he must verify that the information of items being reviewed includes the minimum required specifications to identify it; if not, he/she has to add those considered necessary to recognize the variety that is being compared between the quoted periods. The supervisor must calculate the variations of prices taking into account the collected quantity, the present price and the observations of the collected period as compared to the previous period. In case the data provided by the source are inconsistent with respect to those obtained by the collector, it is fundamental that this situation be commented and to determine if the informant (person) is the same or not. If such is the case, it is necessary to verify with the collector, the information provided by the source, in order to identify and to correct the bias that can derive when consulting a different informant in each visit (the bias that can take place when consulting with a different interlocutor collector/ supervisor or in each visit). Since in the first days of the month, the supervisor does not have any task in terms of supervision (as the working cycle initiates), it is his/her responsibility to accompany and support the collectors of his/her team, with the purpose of evaluating all the process of information taking, that implies among others, to obtain a suitable interaction with the source, by means of the presentation, personal identification as DANE’s staff, expression, technique of interview (access to the information), surveying techniques (to complete or to clarify answers) and other abilities that guarantee the quality of the information taken in the field. As part of the control and continuous improvement tasks, the supervisor and his/her working team (analysts and collectors), must find time to discuss, and to clarify the doubts generated in the field process as well as to comment the omissions and inconsistencies that have been found. These results must be included in the supervision report or, if they are object of a conciliation, they must be discussed with Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 74 the whole group in order to apply the new feature procedure that best adjusts to the situation, according to the methodology of the CPI. It is important to mention that the role of the supervisor is crucial, because it is his/her specific responsibility to validate the information collected in field, applying the technical parameters established to guarantee the control and quality of the process. The control required by the analysis activities corresponds to the local coordinator and/or his (her assistant, who can define a random supervision of some sources, and report on the organization of the review and the results of the supervision. Monthly, the collection of prices has to be reviewed directly by the local coordinator and/or his/her assistant, in order to state situations such as: Existence of the source Volume and quality of the collected information, verifying the date of collection Treatment (communication) of the informant by the collector and vice versa Other relevant aspects in the collection process Operative scheme The collector receives from the analyst the information concerning the route of work or collection of the different goods and services. The collection of prices initiates with the selection of the source following the established criteria. Then the collector must evaluate the specification or variety of the item “most sold” and collect the whole range of its specifications (characteristics that determine unambiguously the item). The most common specifications are, for example, the brand of the good; its packaging; the reference, etc. The collector reviews constantly that this variety continues among the most sold in the source; if it is no longer the case, he/she must find the most sold specificity and include it in the periodic collection. With this procedure the methodology assures that the prices variation incorporated in the index corresponds to the items of greater demand in the market. The collection also implies the quoting of the variety been followed, and the verification of the specifications that allow to identify it. It also includes observing the behavior of the market. Finally, the collector should be alert to the presence of new Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 75 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology sources in the market and the new features that present the goods and services of the basket. It must be underlined that the collector must visit personally the informants and obtain directly the retail prices of the goods and services in the sources that require it. If a personal interview with the informant is not possible, the collector must inform his/her supervisor of this situation, who will have to indicate the procedure to be followed to decide on a revisit to secure the data. (In the development of this situation the MCD should indicate “pending of collection”, so as to identify the pending records). The supervisor has a direct control on the collection tasks and he must verify the information raised in field. The supervision of the sources and items is defined by the local analyst and the local coordinator, who analyze the collected information and require the revisits as needed. Finally the local coordinator of the survey and/or his/her assistant verifies the information of the city and sends the data to DANE’s Head Quarters. Methods and mechanisms of the collection process The collection of the CPI begins on the first working day of a month, and finalizes on the last working day. Each collector and supervisor are assigned a specific zone. They can access the corresponding information in the following way: Space to digit the password to access the software of the device. Name of the programmed sources. Heading of the form. General information of the source: name, code, address, phone number, zone and month to collect. Code of the item, specification, unit and price, technical new features and observation. The collection requires the actual control of the process that is performed among others, from the analysis of the data by source, the obtained coverage and the parameters associated with the quality and trustworthiness indicators. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 76 Data transmission The collection, analysis and calculation of the CPI is executed in a database management system, that allows the access in real time to the information collected in the cities by the controls established in the central level. The information that has been collected and analyzed in the different levels flows through states, according to the operative state in which they are classified. Within the local level, the possible states are the following: Pending of collection. In the collection process: records that are unloaded in the MCD and pending of uploading in the system. Collected: records that include information on collection in the field. Supervised: records that include information on supervision. For supervision from the local level: records that have been selected for supervision. In supervision: records that Have been unloaded in the MCD and pending of supervision. Locally analyzed: records that have the approval of the local analyst. Local Quality control: records ready for obtaining the approval of the local coordinator of the survey or his/her assistant. When this revision is performed, this information transfers to the jurisdiction of DANE’s Headquarters and changes to the state “for verification at central level” or “available at central level”. In this step it is understood that the information is transmitted, since the data cannot be updated by the local level. For verification at central level: records that are object of the analysis of the central analysts. Available at central level: records that are under the responsibility of the logistic team at DANE’s Headquarters. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 77 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology To be supervised from the central level: records marked by the central analysts to be supervised by the cities (a supervision requested from DANE’s Headquarters). Analyzed at Central Level: records that have the approval of the central analyst. Central Quality control: records ready for final approval of the central coordinator. Reviewed at Central Level: it includes the set of records validated by the logistic team. Available for calculation: state of the records ready to enter the calculation (all the processes of information analysis have culminated). In case the collection is done on paper, the information should be digitized at local level using the MCD. Control of coverage With the purpose of controlling the coverage and the analysis of the flow of information at the central level, the cities send a daily information to DANE’s Headquarters based on the schedule of collection. There is also a schedule of physical shipments when required. The reports produced by the software characterize the records by state (records by items, city, class and group source), so that the central and local analysts and coordinators can determine the coverage obtained in each of the states of the information. On the other hand, the analysis performed at the local and central level includes the validation of the information, the verification of the correct application of the technical new features, the analysis of the average prices, the verification of the qualities and specifications of each item (variety), the detection of inconsistencies and the request of new features to be supervised. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 78 2.4 SYSTEMS DESIGN The collection, analysis and calculation of the CPI are performed in a database management system that is used for its administration and information management. Within the benefits derived from the use of the system implemented from 2012, we find the following: To have a centralized system that facilitates the control and the administration of the whole process. To have a unique data repository avoids the lack of coordination in the updates between the local systems and the headquarters. To use a robust basic database engine: ORACLE. To facilitate the online follow-up by DANE’s Headquarters office of the advance the collection process in each city, so as to monitor the coverage and quality of the information. Main modules The more relevant functional modules within the design of the system for CPI include the parametrization module, the quality control module, the collection (that includes the component of analysis) module, the calculation module, the generation of reports module that includes different options associated with the user. Parametrization module: this module allows the designated user to include the profiles of the staff: data collector, supervisor, local analyst, local coordinator, central analyst, central coordinator and technical secretary. This module also includes the determination of the cities where the data collection is performed, the basket (items) of products to be quoted, including the characteristics associated to each item, such as: applicable specifications for each of them, measurement units, collection schedule, etc. Similarly, this module indicates the sources to be followed, to open an operative period (each beginning of the month) and to determine its impact on the collection of prices for those items designated as of “national basket” or “regional basket”: effects of the collection in one city that impacts the collection of others. Quality control module: this module gives access to the indicators of quality and to the different workloads. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 79 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Collection module: this module is used to program the local collection, to realize the analysis of the information and to program the supervision process. In the analysis section, it is possible to review the information from indicators such as: the average of prices and variations, minimum and maximum value of observation; average variations calculated by item, city and level of income and distribution of the records: collected and pending, among others. Calculation module: this module performs the central closing of the process (the records are sent for calculation) and executes the calculation. Reports module: this module generates reports for the control of the operation, including those on the process of collection and programming, and supervision; on the characterization of the sample; on the verification of the state of the base at the end of the month and calculation procedures, among others. User module: this module updates the password of the users. There is a restricted access to the modules according to the profile assigned to each user, for example, the staff at the local level, have access to the information of their city and assigned (s) zone (s), whereas the staff at the central level has a broader access to the data. Database Once the information has been collected and analyzed, it is hosted into a unique centralized database, so that it can be verified in real time. The collected data are digitized using the Mobile Capture Device (MCD), and are entered into the CPI database in their “collected” state; as each city and the central level advance in their processes of revision, the records change progressively their state. The edition permissions of the information derive from the process itself; when the city level is in charge of the verification of the information. The local staff may modify the information; on the other hand, if the analysis is a responsibility of the central level, the central staff have an edition permission. Nevertheless, the system keeps track of each modifications, of the date of the change and of the identification of who realized the correction. The entrance to the platform is only allowed through the identification of the user and a password controlled by the central level. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 80 Anonymization The anonymization of the CPI database requires the establishment of a protocol that guarantees the statistical reserve of the sources. This protocol is presently under revision. The information collected by the CPI is under statistical reserve, which implies that only aggregated data can be disseminated, so that it is not possible to identify any specific source. Cleansing of the database The cleansing of the database depends on the processes of supervision and local and national analysis. All the changes performed by the different staff are registered in the base, which guarantees their follow-up. The states listed under the chapter: “data transmission” of this document, describe the different states in which it is possible to locate a record in the base. The system can be described as a constant flow of information that allows to follow how the registry (quote) goes through the different required quality controls until arriving to the final stage in which it is available for calculation. Description of the data processing process The data collected and analyzed in the CPI can only reviewed and modified by the logistic and thematic personnel directly involved with the research. The structure of the database includes all the necessary information so that the monthly process is performed directly by the staff without intervention of the systems team. There are no specific treatments to the data, excluding the calculation of the variation for the case of the records marked with the technical new feature “period in periods of delay”14 Consistency and correction mechanisms The consistency of the information is determines by the controls located at the local and central level, which purpose is to check the consistency of the variations in the quotes as compared to the local and national reality. At aggregated level, and after realizing the closing of the month, the consistency is checked on the basis of the 14 For more information please refer to the section “content of the imputation process” of this same document. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 81 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology reports generated by the system, which provide the average variations for some aggregates15. With this report it is possible to identify any atypical record so as to ask for its verification before the production and dissemination of the index. There are no possible corrections after the calculation and the dissemination processes. Generation of results and tables of results The index is produced on the fifth day of every month (in the case this day is a holiday, it is produced on the previous Saturday). Due to the sensitivity of the results, the process of calculation and dissemination are performed in an isolated environment within DANE’s Headquarters. The thematic staff in charge (coordinator and technical secretary) of the research have required and obtained the isolation of the network of electronic equipment involved in the calculation, asking from all staff to turn off their cell phones or any other electronic communication device. The calculation uses a software within the Oracle platform, whereas the generation of the bulletin, press release, presentations and Annexes in Excel uses a specialized module that has been developed in FOX. The generation of all the dissemination products is automatic, but after having been reviewed, validated and verified. Integrality of the database Because the database is centralized (all the data are included into a unique server16), it is not necessary to aggregate local bases. Regarding the collection of micro data, the MCD generate back up, so that it is possible to retrieve the collected information in case of any anomalous situation. 15 This option is only available for the staff at the central level. 16 The research has mechanisms to locate the information in case of failure of the official server. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 82 2.5. DESIGN OF THE METHOD AND MEC HANISMS FOR QUALITY CONTROL The statistical production proceeds in two levels: the local level and the central level. The six territorial directions of DANE represent the local level. These directions include the information of the twenty-four cities selected in the country. On the other hand, the central level is in charge of the statistical production that takes place at Headquarters. Each level has its own responsibility in the quality control process: At the local level, each office and sub-office must organize, prepare, collect, realize, supervise and capture the information related to the research. Each Territorial Direction is responsible for the statistical quality of the monthly procedures of collection and analysis; for this reason it must require from the staff in charge of the coordination and supervision of the process, the truthful and actual fulfillment in the different stages that have been established. At the central level, the functional structure considers a technical coordinator and a technical secretary, in charge of the technical and methodologic aspects, a coordinator of the logistic team, with a support for the research, and staff in charge of the analysis, validation, cleansing, correction and consistency of the information reported by each city belonging to the geographic coverage of the research. At the local level, the functional structure considers an operative coordinator, a coordinator of indices, a support for the research, analysts, supervisors and data collectors, which number depend on the number of quotes of the items observed in each city. The operative coordinator is the person responsible for the research within the Territorial Direction. The coordinator of indices is in charge of the operative process and of its proper operation, whereas the technical support is the person in charge of supporting the coordinator in the coordination, instruction, training, and follow-up of the tasks assigned by DANE Headquarters or the coordinator of indices. The analyst must analyze and cleanse all the information that has been collected, so as to assure its optimal quality when sending it to DANE’s Headquarters according to the established schedule. The supervisors are in charge of validating the information Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 83 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology collected in the field and of performing the adjustments when required for the information to be reliable and of quality. The collectors are in charge of visiting all the sources that are part of the sample of the research, of collecting the information and of developing the process of sensitization of the informants. Analysis of the information It initiates when the central or local analyst receive the records. He/she must execute this task all throughout the month, in order to guarantee the fluidity of the process for all the records, and to avoid the accumulation of the process at any time of the month. The information of the CPI is analyzed using a specific module, which first objective is to allow the evaluation of the consistency of the information collected in each city, with the purpose of detecting errors and to correct prices or determine new observations. This process considers the valuation of the data included for the period of reference of each of the items included the basket, a process that requires realizing different types of analysis to validate and provide final consistency to the collected data. The basic coherence of the information is obtained through the following procedures: The horizontal analysis of the data. Using horizontal analysis, the historical records of prices and technical new features applied in previous periods are reviewed; the specifications of each item are revised to see whether they adjust to the parameters established in the manuals of the research. The absolute previous and present prices are analyzed, a verification is done that the previous and present collected quantities have a relationship or an equivalence with the unit and quantity indicated for each item (unit and quantity of measurement), the registered variations are reviewed and the observations that collectors and supervisors indicate are validated. This analysis also considers the verification of the collection specifications, in order to establish whether the variation in the price has a relationship or not with a possible change in the quality of the collected variety. This exercise provides the analyst with sufficient information for him/her to make decisions regarding the behavior of the change in prices. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 84 The vertical analysis of the data. On the other hand, the vertical analysis reviews the prices and the minimum and maximum changes; the behavior of the prices and their variations is analyzed within a local and national context, and the previous and present average prices and the variations are evaluated. Analysis of auxiliary tables. The central and local analysts use the information presented in the auxiliary tables generated by the system, with the purpose of completing the information required for the decision making process with respect to the records they have to review. The information for the calculation of the group source tables on the screen for analysis is cumulative, that is, it considers all the information of the records that enter the system and depend on all the filters excepting the state. The auxiliary tables include: Reference tables for prices and variations that calculate the prices and variations: maximum, average and minimum for the month, in current year and twelve months and by city. Table of prices (minimum, maximum and average) that presents the prices and variations of the actual records of the month. Table summarizing the quotes and new technical features, in order to determine the total number of quotes that must arrive when finalizing the month, the collected ones and technical new features. Table of geometric average by levels of income, in order to visualize the result of the geometric averages by city, for each item and level of income. Table of ranges of prices and variations in order to analyze the distribution of the sample. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 85 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Information Context. All the local and central staff have to take into consideration the behavior of the market known through mass media such as news in TV or by radio, newspapers, consultations through Internet and magazines, so that to have all instruments at hand for the proper decision making, based on the objectives and scope of the CPI. In the cities, it is recommended to resort to mass media of local character. Within the analysis of the behavior of items included in the food group, the historical results of the Producer Price Index and of the SIPSA (System of Prices of the Farming Sector) that reports the prices of transaction in the different whole sale markets (wholesale prices) are used, as well as the data published by different mass media. The analysis using sources of information other than the data collected for the CPI, considers the methodological differences of these results, but it helps identifying tendencies of the behavior of the prices, and is a useful complement for the analysis. Expectations of inflation an important parameter of analysis of the results derives from the studies on the expectations of inflation reported by the different agents operating in the market. Analysis of results. Immediately after the calculation, the technical secretary (directly in charge of the calculation of the index) and the thematic coordinator, verify and analyze the results. The task implies the analysis of the most relevant data and their historical variations corresponding to each publication level, as well as the comparison of the results with the previously established context analyses in order to verify the consistency of the results. Indicators of quality The analysis of the process of production of the CPI includes the generation of the quality indicators, a tool which calculation initiates in the local level and that concludes with the analysis of the tasks performed at the central level. The indicators have constant follow-up and their results are published within the technical bulletin of the index. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 86 Indicators of quality at local level Rate of answer or coverage by sources Index (ITRF): it represents the relationship between the number of sources visited in the month and the number of sources expected to be visited in the month. The visited sources are those in which the collector appears, independently of whether the source actually provides the information, is in processes of liquidation or temporary closings. The objective of this indicator is to determine the degree of answer or “coverage” in terms of the visited or surveyed sources, as compared to the expected number of sources that had been programmed or selected for the research. This indicator is calculated as follows: ITRF = (visited sources/expected sources) *100 100 is the ideal value of the indicator, that is, when all the expected sources are visited. A value below 92 must be justified with documents that indicate the reasons for such a low level; in addition, an evaluation of the need to take a remedial action is due. It is possible that the index present values greater than 100% when new sources are entered. Non imputation or local estimation Index (INIL): it represents the difference between the total number of records and those marked as technical new features by the cities, which represent imputation, and its relationship with the total of records expected for the collection period. The objective of this indicator is to establish the level of imputation of the research. This indicator is calculated as follows: INIL = (RES - Records for imputation or estimation)/RES) * 100 Where: INIL = Non imputation or local estimation Index RES = expected number of records for the period of collection = number of items previously reported for collection per period Understanding the INIL. 100 is the ideal value of the indicator. A value below 92 must be justified with documents that indicate the reasons for such a low level; in addition, an evaluation of the need to take a remedial action is due. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 87 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Local quality Index 1 (IDCL1): it represents the quality of the chain of processes that allows obtaining the products. It is generated through the verification of the quality of the work in each stage of the collection and analysis. It is calculated from the identification of the errors and omissions, assigning them to the minimum unit level of information that is object of measurement (sources or records), but takes also into account the volume of work that is correctly carried out, for the same level of measurement. This indicator is calculated as follows: IDCL1 = (ICR + ICC+ICCA)/3 It is calculated as an arithmetic average between the quality index of the collection analysis and the quality index of capture. IDCL1= local quality index 1 ICR = collection quality index ICA = analysis quality index The interpretation of the indicator is similar to what has been previously commented. Local quality Index 2 (IDCL2): it represents the quality of the chain of processes that allows obtaining the product. It results from the comparison of the sum of errors and omissions generated in all the stages of collection and analysis, with the total number of expected records. The objective is to determine the quality level of the processes of production as the difference between the total number of expected records and the sum of processes that did not adjust and were excluded from the production process. This indicator is calculated as follows: IDCL2 = ((RES-TPNC)/RES) *100 Where: IDCL2 = Local quality Index 2 TPNC = sum of errors and omissions in the processes of supervision and analysis quality control RES = number of expected records Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 88 Indicators of quality at central level The quality indicators at the central level are as follows: Rate of answer or coverage by records Index (ITRR): it represents the relationship between the number of records or variables collected with actual information per period of collection, and the expected number of records or variables to be collected according to previous process of collection per period. The objective of this indicator is to determine the degree of “actual” answer or “coverage” in terms of the records, as compared to the expected number of records in the research. This indicator is calculated as follows ITRR = (actual records/expected records) *100 Where: ITRR = (RES - NT/RES) *100 RES refers to the number of items previously selected for collection. NT refers to the number of records number referred as CR (change of reference) No imputation or central estimation Index (INIC): it represents the difference between the total number of records and the number of records marked with a technical new feature from the central level, which determines the imputation process and its relationship with the total number of expected records for the period. The objective of this indicator is to determine the level of imputation or estimation of the research. This indicator is calculated as follows INIC = (RES - Records marked for imputation or estimation)/RES) * 100 RES = number of expected records Trustworthiness Index (ICFA): it is the simple average of all the quality indicators of the chain of processes that allows obtaining the product, from those calculated at the local level and at the Territorial Direction, until those calculated in the central level. The objective is to determine the quality level of the productive processes of the research. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 89 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology This indicator is calculated as follows ICFA = (ITRF + ITRR + INIL + INIC + IDCL1 + IDCL2)/6 Where: ICFA = Trustworthiness index ITRF = Rate of answer of sources index ITRR = Rate of answer of records index INIL = Local no imputation index INIC = Central no imputation index IDCL1 = Local quality index 1 IDCL2 = Local quality index 2 Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 90 2.6. DESIGN OF THE ANALYSIS OF RESULTS 2.6.1. Statistical analysis The descriptive analysis of data in the CPI concentrates on the validation of the variation of prices of the items of the basket of reference (Pt), between the periods of time and on a monthly basis. Its purpose is to identify the pure variation in the prices (that is, one that does not depend on the changes in the quality of the collected variety). This validation includes the analysis of the available information in order to identify possible errors and to determine the economic support required by any atypical behavior. The analysis is performed in two stages of the operative process. The first one takes place at the local level, whereas the second is performed in a centralized way; its objective is to verify the information of the national aggregate. 2.6.2. Context Analysis The variations of the CPI are compared with the results of other researches of DANE which thematic coverage is related to the measurement of the CPI and are sufficiently timely to provide results for the month of the process. For instance, the results corresponding the food group are compared with the information from SIPSA (system of prices of the farming system), in particular in the case of the behavior of the prices taken in wholesale markets for perishable foods; this variation is compared considering the methodological differences between the CPI and SIPSA data. The results of the CPI without services are also compared to the information published by the IPP for the total internal supply. On the other hand, the historical coherence of results is checked by reviewing the historical variations. All these tools allow the thematic analysis of the evolution of the prices (ups and downs) Finally there is a review of the news referring to the behavior of the different economic sectors and transmitted by the mass media such as TV news, newspapers, magazines and consultations in Internet. 2.6.3. Committee of experts There is an internal committee that reviews the monthly results of the research that includes internal users; there exists also an external committee, including typically external users of the information. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 91 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology On the other hand, in case that significant changes occur in some section of the methodology of the index, internal and external meetings are held in order to enrich the analysis of the proposals included in the methodology. 2.7 DESIGN OF THE DISSEMINATION The variables been disseminated correspond to the monthly, current year and twelve months index number, variations, contributions and shares. The information is published on DANE’s webpage (www.dane.gov.co) on day 5 of each month (In case this date a holiday, it is anticipated to the closest Saturday). In case the dissemination occurs on a Saturday, it takes place at 12 noon, whereas if the day is a working day, it happens at 7 p.m. 2.7.1. Administration of the data repository The consolidated database is hosted within a server of exclusive use for indices at DANE’s Headquarters. It is from this database that consultations and the products required for the dissemination through the press bulletin are generated. At present, these software use Visual FoxPro and Oracle. The application for the central handling of this database is administered by a specific user. 2.7.2. Products and instruments of dissemination The dissemination products result of the research that occur to know monthly are: Press release It presents the evolutions of some monthly aggregates for the national total and by cities according to groups of goods and services, emphasizing the variation of the basic expenses that contributed more to the variation of the total index. Its presentation is flexible and depends on the particular conditions of the moment. Technical bulletin Besides the information included in the press release, it presents more detailed figures (by sub-groups, basic expenditures and classifications), for the national total, by cities and levels of income. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 92 Presentation The presentation put forward the general results for the month, within a historical context of the monthly variations, of those in current years and last twelve months, information of the basic expenditures that presented the higher variations and higher shares within the total variation. Finally it also includes the general results for the 24 cities. The tables presenting monthly result of the CPI are part of the instruments of dissemination. The variables incorporated within the Annexes are as follows: Index, variation, contribution and share (for the month, current year and last twelve months) Finally, the products that are available for general consultation are: the Methodology of the CPI17 and the fixed weighting System18 (available on DANE’s webpage). Additionally, there is a dynamic consultation system, where users can obtain historical data of the Index applying selection filters. The information indicated above is also available in the databanks of the organization, where the results can be certified if required: Variation for the month, current year and last twelve months Contributions for the month, current year and last twelve months Index numbers base December 2008 = 100 Linked CPI series since 1954 National Information (broken down by cities and levels of income 17 http://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/fichas/Met_IPC_Ago13_11_14.pdf 18 http://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/esp/indices-de-precios-y-expenditureos/indice-de-preciosal-consumidor-ipc/86-economicas/precios/3030-sistema-de-ponderaciones-24-ciudades Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 93 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology 2.8 DESIGN OF THE EVALUATION OF QUALITY To meet the quality standards is fundamental in the process of production of statistics. In this sense the design of the evaluation of the production process of the CPI is an important mechanism for its proper use. The evaluation of the quality of the product is a continuous process that includes several stages from its design to the process of production and dissemination of the results. It includes among others: Certification with international experts: it consists of periodic visits of experts of different international organisms who review of all the processes associated with the index: component of systems, calculation and capture software (validation processes), design of the sample, results and dissemination and finally the approach to the external and internal users. Satisfaction Survey among users: it is a tool used to perceive the needs of users. It is developed with the Databanks of the organization that are the first channel of contact with the users. International Recommendations: during the process of design, as well as in the permanent production of the CPI, the index receives technical assistance from international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other National Statistics Offices with recognized experience in indices that produce reports including evaluations and recommendations on the process. Internal and external Committees: They hold monthly meetings, in which they review the results of the research in a context of short term economic analysis. It is also a channel through which to inform specific users on the results of the CPI in an explicit and confidential way. These two committees meet after the publication of the results. It is a way to receive suggestions and recommendations from users and advisers. Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 94 3. RELATED DOCUMENTATION In this section are referenced the documents related to the thematic design of the CPI. They are the following: Methodology of the IPC-08. Specifications of consistency and validation used as guide in order to evaluate the information reported in the instruments of collection (FUR and MCD) and the structure of the tables of result (Annex 3). Methodology of statistical design: this document includes the methodological considerations guiding the process of imputation of the IPC-08. Guidelines for the construction of confidence indicators of price indexes and expenditures, with the purpose of guaranteeing the production of the IPC-08 within optimal quality standards. Methodology of the design of the required systems for the production of IPC-08. Manuals for the collection, capture, supervision and revision (used by the analyst) that guide the field work at the local level. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 95 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology GLOSSARY OF TERMS19 Basic Unit: unit of measurement to which the observed price is converted when the quote is observed on an item that has a different quantity. This conversion of the price is necessary, since the prices can only be compared when they refer to the same unit of weight, volume or quantity (units). The basic unit agrees corresponds with the minimal unit in which the item might be sold. Change of reference: new feature through which to face the change of quality of a specification. The absence can be due to the conditions of the market or to changes in the primary characteristics of a specification, understood as those that differentiate a product from another or even among varieties of the same product. The change of reference is a procedure for “catching” implicitly the changes of quality in items. Complementary source: it appears as an alternative to replace the absence of a specification in a given source in which a perfect substitution cannot be applied or it is not possible to apply a change of reference, looking for a specification of equal quality in another establishment, without change in the characteristics of the item. In this source no new feature of technical character can be applied. If the specification does not appear again in the original establishment, a new specification has to be determined. If this is not possible, another source has to be used or the specification has to be assigned to an existing source where it has not been quoted. Delay Period without information: period of collection without information for some item or product, because the brand or the variety of an item is not available. It is used when the absence of information is supposed to be temporary. Elementary aggregate: it is a relatively homogenous set of goods both in terms of its physical characteristics and in the behavior of the variations of prices of its components. Immediate substitution: it is a procedure developed to respond to the absence of a specification replacing it by a “perfect substitute”, considering all the characteristics of quality, and using as an approximation to this concept the price, the quantity and the brand. The effect on the calculation system should be within the minimum acceptable range of variation. 19 Source: http://sen.dane.gov.co:8080/senApp/module/conceptosModule/index.html; Metodología IPC_98; Metodología IPC_60 Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 96 Mobile Capture Device (MCD): movable technological tool that used in the CPI with the purpose of directly capturing in the field the inion of all the goods and services that conform the basic basket. Sources: the commercial, municipal or educative establishments that sell one or several items, or provide a service to the final user. Tariffs: prices of goods or services that are determined by a very restricted number of producers or distributers. The producers or distributers can influence the behaviors of the consumers imposing their prices to the different segments of the market, according to the characteristics of the consumers. This situation occurs with public utilities. Unique Collection Form (FUR): it corresponds to the design of the collection form with can be used as printed sheets or in a mobile device. This form is designed by type of sources, and can include simultaneous information for one or several items of different brands, varieties or specifications. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 97 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology BIBLIOGRAPHY Boskin, M. (1996). Toward a more accurate measure of the cost of living, final report to the Senate Finance Committee. Washington D.C, United States: Diane Pub co. Comité técnico proyecto nuevo IPC. (1997 y 1998). Reuniones técnicas, observaciones y comentarios a los documentos del Proyecto. Bogotá, Colombia. (Technical meetings, observations and comments to the Project document). Código Nacional de Buenas Prácticas de las Estadísticas Oficiales. (2011). Bogotá. Imprenta Nacional de Colombia. DANE. (National Good Practices Code for Official Statistics). Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE). Bogotá, Colombia. Metodología IPC-60. Bogotá, Colombia. DANE Grupo de Trabajo IPC. (2002). Manual de Recolección IPC-98. (working party CPI 2002; collection manual). Grupo de Trabajo IPC. (2002). Metodología IPC-98. (proceedings of the working party). Grupo de Trabajo coordinadores, IPC. (1996). Memorias de Seminarios del IPC, supervisores y recolectores. (working party: proceedings of the seminar on C¨PI fir coordinators, supervisors and collectors). (1997-1998) Informes de evaluación Proyecto, Statistics Canada Symposium. (Evaluation reports). (1998). Guía de uso del Nuevo IPC. Bogotá, Colombia. (Users guide for the new CPI). (1992). Revisión 1992 IPC. Moncada, M. Metodología IPC-60. Bogotá: DANE. Ducharme, L.M. (1994). Re-engineering the Canadian Consumer Price Index: Proceedings of Statistics Canada. Otawa, Canadá. Symposium. Freire, E. Informes del proyecto Nuevo IPC - Primer y segundo semestre de 1997. Bogotá: DANE- Universidad del Valle (Report on the new CPI). Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 98 ILO/IMF/OECD/UNECE/Eurostat/The World Bank Consumer price index manual: Theory and practice Geneva, International Labour Office, 2004. ILO Geneva 2003Report III: Consumer Price Index Seventeenth International Conference on Labor Statistics Geneva. Statistics Canada. (1992). The Consumer Price Index Reference Paper. Ottawa, Canada: Statistics Canada. Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 99 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology ANNEXES ANNEX 1. Main tables of results of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Table 1. Index of the previous and present month, monthly and accumulated variation, by levels of income by cities and national total Table 2. Indices and monthly variation by groups of goods and services, by cities Table 2a. Index and monthly variation by group of goods and services, by cities for the low income group Table 2b. Index and monthly variation by group of goods and services, by cities for the medium income group Table 2c. Index and monthly variation by group of goods and services, by cities for the high income group Table 3. Index of the previous and present month, monthly variation, in current year and last 12 months Table 4. Monthly variation, in current year and last twelve months, by groups of goods and services, according to levels of income for the national total and by cities Table 5. Index of the previous and present month, monthly variation, in current year and last twelve months, by level of income, according to sub-groups of goods and services, national total and by cities Table 6. Index and monthly variation by income levels, according to groups, subgroups, class of expenditure and basic expenditure for the national total and by cities Table 6.A. Index and variation year run by income levels, according to groups, subgroups, class of expenditure and basic expenditure for the national total and by cities Table 6.B. Index, variation twelve months by income level, according to groups, subgroups, classes of expenditure and basic expenditure for the national total and by cities Table 7. Present index, variation and monthly contribution, by levels of income according to groups, sub-groups, classes of expenditure and basic expenditure Table 7a. Present index, variation and contribution in current year, by income levels according to groups, sub-groups, classes of expenditure and basic expenditure Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 100 Annex 2. Logical soundness standards for the CPI collection unique format (FUR) Denomination IPC01 Name Field Number Numerical Description Printing consecutive number Value Notes Must be Number included Bogota, Medellin, Cali, Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Manizales, Pasto, IPC02 City Text City name Pereira, Cucuta, Monteria, Neiva, Must be included Cartagena, Villavicencio, Riohacha, Armenia, Quibdó. IPC03 Code Numerical Source code IPC03 Name Text Name of the source IPC03 Address Alfanumerical IPC03 Phone Numerical Address of the source Telephone of the source Group, class, Must be consecutive included Must be Text included Street, Number Must be included Number Group, Subgroup, IPC05 Code Numerical Code of the item Class, Expenditure, Must be Basic Expenditure, included Consecutive Reference IPC06 specificati Text ons Specifications for Basic and secondary Must be price follow-up characteristics included Quantity and base IPC07 Base unit Alfanumerical unit for price calculations Number and unit Must be included Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 101 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Annex 3. IPC Structure IPC Structure Structure Level GROUP Description of the expenditure Code FOODS 1000000 Cereal and bakery products 1100000 Cereals 1110000 Basic expenditure Rice 1110100 Basic expenditure Corn flour and other flours 1110200 Basic expenditure Pasta products in all forms 1110300 Basic expenditure Cereal preparations 1110400 Basic expenditure Other cereals 1110500 Bakery products 1120000 Basic expenditure Bread 1120100 Basic expenditure Other bakery products 1120200 Tubers and plantain 1200000 Tubers 1210000 Basic expenditure Potatoes 1210100 Basic expenditure Yucca 1210200 Basic expenditure Other tubers 1210300 Plantain 1220000 Plantain 1220100 Vegetables 1300000 Subgroup Class Class Subgroup Class Class Basic expenditure Subgroup Class Fresh vegetables 1310000 Basic expenditure Onions 1310100 Basic expenditure Tomatoes 1310200 Basic expenditure Carrots 1310300 Basic expenditure Green vegetables mix 1310400 Basic expenditure Other fresh vegetables 1310500 Vegetables 1320000 Basic expenditure Beans 1320100 Basic expenditure Green peas 1320200 Basic expenditure Other dried vegetables 1320300 Basic expenditure Canned vegetables 1320400 Fruits 1400000 Fresh fruits 1410000 Oranges 1410100 Class Subgroup Class Basic expenditure Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 102 Annex 3. IPC Structure (Continuation) IPC Structure Structure Level Description of the expenditure Code Basic expenditure Bananas 1410200 Basic expenditure Tomate de arbol 1410300 Basic expenditure Blackerry 1410400 Basic expenditure Other fresh fruits 1410500 Preserve or dried fruits 1420000 Preserve or dried fruits 1420100 Meat and Meat derivatives 1500000 Class Basic expenditure Subgroup Class Meat 1510000 Basic expenditure Beef 1510100 Basic expenditure Pork 1510200 Basic expenditure Chicken 1510300 Meat derivatives 1520000 Cold meats and sausages 1520100 Fish and seafood 1600000 Fresh, frozen or canned fish 1610000 Fresh, frozen or canned fish 1610100 Other seafood 1620000 Other seafood 1620100 Milk, fats and oils, eggs 1700000 Eggs 1710000 Eggs 1710100 Milk and derivatives 1720000 Basic expenditure Milk 1720100 Basic expenditure Cheese 1720200 Basic expenditure Other milk derivatives 1720300 Oils and fats 1730000 Basic expenditure Oils and fats 1730100 Basic expenditure Fats 1730200 Other food 1800000 Brown sugar and sugar 1810000 Basic expenditure Brown sugar 1810100 Basic expenditure Sugar 1810200 Coffee and chocolate 1820000 Class Basic expenditure Subgroup Class Basic expenditure Class Basic expenditure Subgroup Class Basic expenditure Class Class Subgroup Class Class Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 103 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Annex 3. IPC Structure (Continuation) IPC Structure Structure Level Description of the expenditure Code Basic expenditure Coffee 1820100 Basic expenditure Chocolate 1820200 Seasonings 1830000 Basic expenditure Salt 1830100 Basic expenditure Other seasononings 1830200 Groceries 1840000 Basic expenditure Soups and creams 1840100 Basic expenditure Sauces and dressings 1840200 Basic expenditure Gels, sweets, candies 1840300 Basic expenditure Other groceries 1840400 Non alcoholic beverages 1850000 Basic expenditure Juices 1850100 Basic expenditureB Carbonated and malt beverages, 1850200 Basic expenditure Otlher non alcoholic beverages 1850300 Food away from home 1900000 Food in restaurants 1910000 Lunch 1910100 Fast food 1920000 Basic Expenditure Hamburguer 1920100 Basic Expenditure Hot fast food 1920200 Other meals away from home 1930000 Basic Expenditure Cafeterias 1930100 Basic Expenditure Cold fast food 1930200 HOUSING 2000000 Expenses associated with housin 2100000 Dwelling rentals 2110000 Actual rentals paid by tenants 2110100 Owner occupied dwellings 2120000 Class Class Class Subgroup Class Basic Expenditure Class Class GROUP Subgroup Class Basic Expenditure Class Basic Expenditure Imputed rentals for housing Other Class associated with expenditures associated with housing Other Basic Expenditure 2120100 expenditures housing 2130000 2130100 Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 104 Annex 3. IPC Structure (Continuation) IPC Structure Structure Level Subgroup Class Basic Expenditure Class Description of the expenditure Code Gas and fuels 2200000 Gas and fuels 2210000 Gas 2210100 Public utilities 2220000 Basic Expenditure Electricity 2220100 Basic Expenditure Water,refuse and sewage collection 2200200 Household furniture 2300000 Subgroup Class Complete sets 2310000 Basic Expenditure Living room 2310100 Basic Expenditure Dining room 2310200 Basic Expenditure Bedroom 2310300 Other furniture, lighting and decoration 2320000 Other furniture, lighting and decoration 2320100 Domestic appliances 2400000 Appliances for household rutine tasks 2410000 Basic Expenditure Refrigerator 2410100 Basic Expenditure Kitchen 2410200 Basic Expenditure Washing machine 2410300 Basic Expenditure Other household appliances Class Basic Expenditure Subgroup Class Class Spare parts, repair and 2410400 rental of 2420000 household appliances Basic Expenditure Subgroup Repair of household appliances 2410100 Domestic tools 2500000 Class Kitchen tools 2510000 Basic Expenditure Cooking pots and pans 2510100 Basic Expenditure Other domestic tools 2510200 Class Table tools 2520000 Basic Expenditure Glass, ceramic and chine ware 2520100 Basic Expenditure Cutlery, flatware and silverware 2520200 Other home utensils 2530000 Other home utensils 2530100 Household textiles 2600000 Bedroom 2610000 Class Basic Expenditure Subgroup Class Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 105 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Annex 3. IPC Structure (Continuation) IPC Structure Structure Level Description of the expenditure Code Basic Expenditure Bedlinen, sheets, pillowcases 2610100 Basic Expenditure Blankets, eiderdowns, 2610200 Basic Expenditure Matresses, pillows 2610300 Class Bathroom 2620000 Basic Expenditure Curtains 2620100 Basic Expenditure Towels, table linen, furniture covers 2620200 Cleaning materials 2700000 Subgroup Class Soaps, detergents and softeners 2710000 Basic Expenditure Soaps 2710100 Basic Expenditure Detergents, bleaches, softeners 2710200 Cleaners, insecticides and waxes 2720000 Basic Expenditure Cleaners and desinfectants 2720100 Basic Expenditure Insecticides 2720200 Basic Expenditure Waxes 2720300 Other cleaning utensils 2730000 Basic Expenditure Kitchen paper 2730100 Basic Expenditure Other cleaning utensils 2730200 CLOTHING 3000000 Clothing 3100000 Men's clothing 3110000 Basic Expenditure Men's shirts 3110100 Basic Expenditure Men`s pants 3110200 Basic Expenditure Men's underwear 3110300 Basic Expenditure Other men's clothing 3110400 Class Class GROUP Subgroup Class Class Women's clothing 3120000 Basic Expenditure Women's blouses 3120100 Basic Expenditure Women`s pants 3120200 Basic Expenditure Women's underwear 3120300 Basic Expenditure Other women's clothing 3120400 Children's clothing 3130000 Basic Expenditure Boys' shirts, girls' blouses 3130100 Basic Expenditure Children's pants 3130200 Basic Expenditure Other clothing for children 3130300 Class Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 106 Annex 3. IPC Structure (Continuation) IPC Structure Structure Level Basic Expenditure Description of the expenditure Code Children's underwear 3130400 Baby's clothing 3140000 Basic Expenditure Baby's shirts and dresses 3140100 Basic Expenditure Diapers 3140200 Footwear 3200000 Men's footwear 3210000 Men's footwear 3210100 Women's footwear 3220000 Women's footwear 3220100 Sports footwear 3230000 Sports footwear 3230100 Children footwear 3240000 Children footwear 3240100 Clothing services 3300000 Clothing services 3310000 Basic Expenditure Tailoring and hiring 3310100 Basic Expenditure Laundry and cleaning 3310200 Footwear service 3320000 Footwea repair and cleaning 3320100 HEALTH 4000000 Health services 4100000 Consultation 4110000 Basic Expenditure General medicine consultation 4110100 Basic Expenditure Specialized medicine consultation 4110200 Exams 4120000 Laboratory 4120100 Diagnostic images 4120200 Hospitalization and other related services 4130000 Hospitalization and ambulance services 4130100 Health products and materials 4200000 Medicines and other related expenditure 4210000 Basic Expenditure Medicines 4210100 Basic Expenditure Contraceptives and other products 4210200 Class Subgroup Class Basic Expenditure Class Basic Expenditure Class Basic Expenditure Class Basic Expenditure Subgroup Class Class Basic Expenditure GROUP Subgroup Class Class Basic Expenditure Class Basic Expenditure Subgroup Class Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 107 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Annex 3. IPC Structure (Continuation) IPC Structure Structure Level Class Basic Expenditure Description of the expenditure 4220000 Orthopedical devices and others 4220100 Private Subgroup Code Orthopedical devices and others health insurance and other expenditures 4300000 Private health insurance 4310000 Basic Expenditure Private health insurance 4310100 Basic Expenditure Services delivered at home or outside 4310200 Compulsory health system expenses 4320000 Complementary payments 4320100 EDUCATION 5000000 Teaching, education 5100000 Class Class Basic Expenditure GROUP Subgroup Class Enrollment and attendance fees (basic, 5110000 intermediate levels), training Basic Expenditure Enrollment fees 5110100 Basic Expenditure Attendance fees 5110200 Enrollment fees (Higher and non-formal Class education) 5120000 Enrollment fees 5120100 Other education related costs 5130000 Other education related costs 5130100 School supplies 5200000 Textbooks, notebooks and other supplies 5210000 Basic Expenditure Textbooks 5210100 Basic Expenditure Notebooks 5210200 Basic Expenditure Other school supplies 5210300 Other school related expenses 5200000 Other school related expenses 5200100 RECREATION AND CULTURE 6000000 Basic Expenditure Class Basic Expenditure Subgroup Class Class Basic Expenditure GROUP Subgroup Cultural materials and other related items 6100000 Class Cultural materials 6110000 Basic Expenditure Books 6110100 Basic Expenditure Magazines 6110200 Basic Expenditure Newspapers 6110300 Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 108 Annex 3. IPC Structure (Continuation) IPC Structure Structure Level Description of the expenditure Code Games,toys, hobbies, masks, disguises, Class decorations 6120000 Games,toys, hobbies, masks, disguises, Basic Expenditure decorations 6120100 Gardens, plants, flowers and products for Class pets 6130000 Gardens, plants, flowers and products for Basic Expenditure Class pets 6130100 Products for hobbies 6140000 Basic Expenditure Records 6140100 Basic Expenditure Sports devices and equipment 6140200 Recreational items and equipment 6200000 Subgroup Class Video equipment 6210000 Basic Expenditure Television sets 6210100 Basic Expenditure Other video and image equipment 6210200 Reception and Class Basic Expenditure 6220000 Reproduction of sound equipment Other Class reproduction of sound equipment equipment for culture 6220100 and entertainment 6230000 Computers, printers and other devices 6230100 Entertainment services 6300000 Recreation and entertainment services 6310000 Basic Expenditure T.V. Services 6310100 Basic Expenditure Tourism 6310200 Basic Expenditure Entertainment related services 6310300 Basic Expenditure Cultural services 6310400 Basic Expenditure Subgroup Class Other expenses related with recreation Class Basic Expenditure Class Basic Expenditure GROUP Subgroup and entertainment 6320000 Games of chance 6320100 Pets services 6330000 Pets services 6330100 TRANSPORTATION 7000000 Personal transportation 7100000 Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 109 Consumer Price Index (CPI) General Methodology Annex 3. IPC Structure (Continuation) IPC Structure Structure Level Description of the expenditure Code Purchase of vehicles and others for Class transportation 7110000 Basic Expenditure Vehicles 7110100 Basic Expenditure Others for transportation 7110200 Expenses Class Basic Expenditure operating personal 7120000 Fuel Oil 7120100 purchase and car maintenance Basic Expenditure services 7120200 Basic Expenditure Parking service 7120300 Basic Expenditure Mechanical services 7120400 Basic Expenditure Battery 7120500 Basic Expenditure Tires 7120600 Public transportation 7200000 Subgroup Class Urban transportation 7210000 Basic Expenditure Bus 7210100 Basic Expenditure Vans (or small buses) 7210200 Basic Expenditure Taxi 7210300 Basic Expenditure Other forms of urban transportation 7210400 Intercity transportation 7220000 Basic Expenditure Intercity bus 7220100 Basic Expenditure Other forms of intercity transpoprtation 7220200 Air transportation 7230000 Air ticket 7230101 COMMUNICATION 8000000 Communication 8100000 Postal service 8110000 Post letter service and other services 8110100 Telephone services 8120000 Telephone services 8120100 Celular phones and similar equipment 8130000 Celular phones and similar equipment 8130100 OTHER EXPENSES 9000000 Class Class Basic Expenditure GROUP Subgroup Class Basic Expenditure Class Basic Expenditure Class Basic Expenditure GROUP for transportation Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE) 110 Annex 3. IPC Structure (Final) IPC Structure Structure Level Subgroup Description of the expenditure Code Alcoholic beverages 9100000 Alcoholic beverages 9110000 Basic Expenditure Beer 9110100 Basic Expenditure Rum (aniseed) 9110200 Basic Expenditure Other alcoholic beverages 9110300 Cigarettes and cigars 9120000 Cigarettes 9120100 Personal care products 9200000 Personal hygiene 9210000 Basic Expenditure Oral hygiene 9210100 Basic Expenditure Corporal hygiene 9210200 Basic Expenditure Skin care 9210300 Basic Expenditure Hair care 9210400 Basic Expenditure Other products related with personal care 9210500 Class Class Basic Expenditure Subgroup Class Class Personal care services 9220000 Basic Expenditure Haircut and hairdress 9220100 Basic Expenditure Other services related with personal care 9220200 Jewellery and other personal items 9300000 Jewellery 9310000 Basic Expenditure Gold and silver jewels 9310100 Basic Expenditure Watches 9310200 Other personal items 9320000 Other personal items 9320100 Subgroup Class Class Basic Expenditure Class Other goods and services 9400000 Basic Expenditure Financial services 9400100 Basic Expenditure Banking services 9400200 Insurance associated with transportation 9420000 Vehicle insurance 9420100 Class Basic Expenditure Bogotá D. C., Cundinamarca 2015 111
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