Social Science & Medicine 50 (2000) 1547±1556 www.elsevier.com/locate/socscimed Social change and HIV in the former USSR: the making of a new epidemic Laetitia Atlani a,*, Michel CaraeÈl b, Jean-Baptiste Brunet c, Timothy Frasca d, Nikolai Chaika e a National Centre for Scienti®c Research, Centre National pour la Recherche Scienti®que (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Ethnologie et de Sociologie Comparative UMR 7535 Paris X-Nanterre University, France b Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland c European Centre for the Epidemiological Monitoring of AIDS, Saint-Maurice, France d Consultant UNDP, New York, USA e Pasteur Institute, City Department for STD, St Petersburg, Russia Abstract This paper describes the development of the recent HIV epidemic in countries of the former Soviet Union. It explores the socio±political and economic roots of an injection-drug-driven HIV epidemic associated with a drug culture that facilitates HIV transmission. This review, based on many unpublished reports, studies and ®eld notes, discusses the new social and health context in which the epidemic is developing. The evidence of a growing number of drug users in the region is discussed and drug injection behaviour described. The authors present selected data on the heterosexual transmission of HIV and linkages between the drug-linked HIV epidemic and its further spread into the non-injecting population. The potential overlap with the still uncontrolled syphilis epidemic that began in 1990 is probably a key factor in the future of HIV spread in the region. Until now, HIV infection among STD patients has been extremely low. However, rapid changes in sexual norms and behaviours, the growing commercial sex industry, and increased mobility soon may aect the current situation. The huge economic and socio±political crises currently aecting the region have created a ``risk situation'' for the spread of HIV. Concerns are raised about the appropriateness and the scope of government and non-governmental approaches to the exploding HIV and STD epidemics. 7 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: HIV; STDs; Social change; Former USSR; IDUs; Sex workers Introduction * Corresponding author. CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ethnologie et de Sociologie Comparative, Universite de Paris X-Nanterre, MAE 21 Allee de l'Universite, 92023, Nanterre Cedex France. Tel.: +33-146692511; fax: +33-146692511. E-mail address: [email protected] (L. Atlani). If disease is an expression of individual life under unfavourable conditions, then epidemics must be indicative of mass disturbances of mass life. (Eisenberg, 1984) 0277-9536/00/$ - see front matter 7 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. PII: S 0 2 7 7 - 9 5 3 6 ( 9 9 ) 0 0 4 6 4 - 5 1548 L. Atlani et al. / Social Science & Medicine 50 (2000) 1547±1556 Our conception of the determinants of an epidemic changes as the epidemic evolves: at certain times, pressure arises to track infection and improve access to health care systems; at other times, the emphasis has been on individual risk factors, risk-taking or on ``risk groups''; eventually, rising poverty and social deprivation may ®gure more predominantly in policy making. The HIV epidemic is a good example of such contrasting views. In the early years of AIDS, medical authorities tended to view HIV as a communicable virus to be handled in traditional ways: through identifying the ``carriers'' of the virus, tracking transmission routes, and heading o new infections by patientfocused policies, such as contact tracing and partner noti®cation. Later, under the in¯uence of psychological theories of behavioural change, individuals at risk were the focus, with the underlying assumption that the individuals who receive the intervention will make rational decisions about their behaviour and that they have the power to make the necessary changes. Social and environmental variables were treated as independent. In recent years, the approach to HIV/AIDS has thus broadened to focus not only on individual risk-taking behaviour, but also on the immediate environmental and societal factors that in¯uence such behaviour, including the in¯uence of communities on individuals (Tarantola, 1992; Tawil et al., 1995; Barnett and Whitesite, 1997; CaraeÈl et al., 1997). The earlier concepts of risk and risk-taking were broadened to include new concepts such as ``risk situation'' and vulnerability, resulting from societal factors that aect adversely one's ability to exert control over one's own health. The case of the new HIV epidemic that recently emerged in the former Soviet Union is particularly illustrative of these often contradictory views. It may be an extreme and rare example of a ``risk situation'' in which economic collapse and the deterioration of the health-care system coincide with changes in moral norms and values among many social groups. Not surprisingly, in recent years, all health indicators have dropped sharply in the countries of the former Soviet Union, and new epidemics, including HIV and STDs, are rising. The eects on health of the politico±economic transition that occurred after the collapse of the communist system in the early 1990s have probably few parallels in history. This transition is characterised by a rapid decline in gross domestic product (GDP), especially aecting industrial production, and high in¯ation. With the beginning of privatisation, the role of the underground economy expanded, generating severe economic inequalities (UNDP, 1996, 1997, 1998). Anyone dependent on the state budget, especially pen- sioners, the disabled, the unemployed, civil servants and military personnel, experienced a sharp drop in living standards. The sudden collapse of the Soviet system disrupted the very basis of the organisation of production. Previously, the system provided universal human security, including full employment, controlled prices of essential goods, universal health care, education and a broad safety net to guarantee residents' minimum needs. Centralisation often resulted in heavy concentrations of certain industries in particular regions or cities with heavily dependent communities, comparable to the ``company town'' phenomenon in the West. These industries not only provided jobs but also welfare, health and social services. The disruption caused by the shutdown of these industries was so severe that people had no time to adjust materially or psychologically. Poverty became widespread. In a 1995 opinion poll in Kazakhstan, 75% of those surveyed stated that they had purchased no consumer goods at all in the previous year (Karavan, 1995). Delays of many months in the payment of wages have become commonplace. These dramatic economic changes have been associated with a deterioration in the health of the peoples of the former Soviet Union. With gross domestic product falling by as much as one-half, real health spending was cut by comparable amounts. The budget reductions slashed real wages of health workers, capital investments in the health sector, and purchases of pharmaceuticals and supplies (Healy and McKee, 1997). In 1960, 6.6% of the USSR's GDP was spent on public health. By 1985 the ®gure had fallen to 4.6%, and in 1994 to 1.7%. By comparison, spending on health care in OECD countries averages 7 to 8% (Powell, 1998). Health costs, which increased due to the partial privatisation and commercialisation of many health services, were suddenly transferred from the state to households. Macroeconomic decline had broader health consequences as well: heating shortages induced increased rates of pneumonia, deteriorating water supplies led to epidemics of infectious diseases such as cholera, and the interruption of immunisations caused outbreaks of diphtheria. Inevitably, the region's health indicators worsened: non-communicable diseases showed such startling increases that Russian boys born in 1993 are expected to live 5 years fewer than those born in 1989 (Adeyi et al., 1997). In Ukraine, male life expectancy was estimated to have dropped from 66 in 1989 to 61 in 1995 (Barnett and Whitesite, 1997). Some authors link this phenomenon both to deteriorating health care as well as increased alcoholism and smoking (Bobak et al., 1998). In Russia, Cornia (1997) has shown a strong correlation between the decline in life expectancy and the increase in ``psycho- L. Atlani et al. / Social Science & Medicine 50 (2000) 1547±1556 logical stress'', measured by levels of unemployment and labour turnover and the increased rate of divorce. Another indicator of stress is the raising rate of suicide. Between 1960 and 1993, the ocial number of suicides per year in Russia increased 43%, from 39,000 to 56,000 and had further risen to 67,000 by 1995 (Powell, 1998). These ®gures include only those deaths registered as suicides. Bobak et al. (1998) noted that poor health status in Russia might be related to the dysfunction of social structures, socio±economic deprivation and lack of perceived control on the environment and one's health. Linking risk behaviour to social structural change is still problematic in current behaviour change theories (Giddens, 1979). In addition, fundamental data and cross-disciplinary studies in the region are lacking that might establish the link between social dimensions of risky behaviour and speci®c aspects of the drastic changes in organisational, institutional, health and economic conditions in the former USSR. By these standards, the data collected for this paper are bare beginnings. Nonetheless, both the recent second Conference on AIDS and Social Sciences in Europe and the second International Conference on AIDS held in 1998 expressed a growing concern about determinants of the HIV epidemic in Eastern Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union and oered timely opportunities to assemble relevant literature. This paper utilises the information assembled at these events, supplemented by other papers, published and unpublished reports and ®eld notes from Atlani.1 In this article, we discuss selected aspects of the determinants and dynamics of the new HIV epidemic in the countries of the former Soviet Union, where the societal changes were deepest and most sudden. An explosive HIV epidemic among injecting drug users Little attention was paid to the HIV epidemic in the former USSR during its early years, due to the low rates persisting in the region and the pressure of more immediate social upheavals. From 1988 until about 1994, health ocials from the region tended to downplay the threat of HIV, pointing to the extremely low levels of infection. The isolated outbreak of nosocomial infections among Russian children in 1988 was seen as exceptional. The majority of the few, adult reported cases of HIV infection 1 The ®rst author has regularly visited several countries of the former Soviet Union (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Ukraine) since 1995 to work on HIV prevention. Her work was commissioned by UNDP and Path®nder International. Additional ®eldwork was funded by the CNRS. 1549 were detected among homosexual men. Even as the silent epidemics in Russia (1991±95) and the Ukraine (1993±94) were ending, many local public health experts concurred that HIV infection in their countries was ``stable''. It was generally thought that, with a systematic application of a broad range of preventive measures in health care settings, the situation would remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. The assumption that prevention could be concentrated in formal health care settings showed that health ocials were oblivious to the implications of social transformations. Indeed, a few years later, the situation has changed dramatically: the HIV epidemic is now escalating in many of the countries of the former Soviet Union, with an explosive spread among intravenous drug users (IDUs). In 1997, transmission through injecting drug use accounted for most of the 100,000 estimated new HIV infections in the region (UNAIDS/ WHO, 1998). In Ukraine, where some 80% of the estimated 15,000 infections reported in 1997 were among drug users, half of the noti®cations occurred in 1997 (UNAIDS/WHO, 1998; Scherbinskaya et al., 1998). The two Ukrainian cities of Odessa and Nykolayev are the most aected. In the ®rst, HIV prevalence among IDUs was 1.4% in January 1995, 13% in August of the same year, and 31% in January 1996. In the second city, the ®gures are 0.3% in 1994, 17% in 1995 and 57% in January 1996 (Kobysha et al., 1996; Khodakevich et al., 1997). In the Russian Federation, more than 60% of the new HIV cases recorded in 1996 were among IDUs, compared to 28% for the 1987±1995 period, when sexual transmission predominated. Homosexual contact then accounted for 29% of the cases, and parental transmission during medical treatment another 25% (Danziger, 1996; Ingram, 1997). In 1997, according to various authors, between 74 and 90% of new infections were among IDUs (Harstock and Kozlov, 1998; UNAIDS/WHO, 1998; Rhodes et al., 1999). Kazakhstan is also facing an injecting drug-related HIV epidemic. Together with its Central Asian neighbours, it has become a major tracking route for opium and heroin from Afghanistan, the world's largest source. Even if injecting drugs emerged only in 1994, most users began injecting recently and the majority of the estimated 40,000 drug users are unemployed youth (Ellis, 1996; Kumar, 1998). By April 1999, Kazakhstan had recorded 882 cases of HIV infection and 24 cases of AIDS. Turar Cheklikov, director of Kazakhstan National AIDS Centre, said that 80% of the infections are the result of injection drug use. It would have been unthinkable a few years ago for us to suggest that children from 11 to 13 years old 1550 L. Atlani et al. / Social Science & Medicine 50 (2000) 1547±1556 would take drugs. (quoted by Russia Today Online 04/28/99) Belarus also faces a sharp increase in registered cases of HIV infection since 1996, mostly among the estimated 4000±7000 IDUs in the city of Svetlogorsk. Before June 1996, six out of 33 (18%) registered IDUs tested HIV positive in one study. By October 1996, 482 cases of HIV infection had been registered, mostly among IDUs (Dhene et al., 1999). Moldova is following the same pattern, with 77% of HIV cases in 1997 found to be IDUs (Hamers, 1997). For several reasons, doubts remain about the validity of these sero-prevalence data based on mass screening and screening of the so-called high-risk populations. For a person to be registered as HIVpositive, two tests must be performed as well as clinical investigation. Many HIV infections may not be registered as people refuse follow-up procedures or health structures are unable to provide them or ful®l reporting requirements. In Ukraine, for example, Kobysha et al. (1996) reported that only between 50±80% of drug users listed in police, drug treatment or prison records had been tested for HIV. In addition, registered HIV infections may re¯ect an over-reporting bias among IDUs. According to Hamers (1997) processing is proliferating in former Soviet states, and trac is being re-routed or newly introduced into the Balkans and along the Silk Road. Free-market economies and open borders have facilitated the exchange and transport of drugs, along with other goods. Opium derivatives are now easily available in these countries, including heroin recently introduced to new users as well as home-produced poppy extracts. In addition, the creation of new convertible currencies has made previously uninteresting markets attractive to international drug trackers. At the same time, widespread economic collapse makes drug dealing an attractive career choice. Organised crime groups have also emerged in many post-communist countries and have moved into drug production and tracking, while law enforcement structures are weakened or corrupt (Grund, 1996). Several reports mention the strengthening of a regional narcotics ma®a with strong links to the drug-producing and -tracking cartels of the Golden Crescent and Golden Triangle (UNDCP, 1997). Increase in drug demand In Ukraine in 1995 the number of diagnosed HIV infections among IDUs was exactly the same as the reported number of HIV infections acquired through injecting drug use (Hamers, 1997). Finally, people living with HIV may not be recorded, as many are only detected when diagnosed with AIDS (Barnett and Whitesite, 1997). All these factors imply that data on HIV prevalence among IDU should be interpreted with caution and that trends over time are probably more signi®cant that absolute numbers. There are many gaps in the available knowledge on the characteristics of IDUs and their sub-populations as well as on the dynamics of viral transmission among them. However, several factors seem to drive this new HIV epidemic: a sharp increase in drug supply, increased demand for drugs, and a shift in the culture of drug use. The scale of drug use is impossible to estimate precisely. Ocials and social workers generally agree that the increase in the last few years is considerable and that the proportion of users injecting is rising. Alarming anecdotal reports also indicate an increasingly younger age of initiation and the use of combinations of drugs that make rehabilitation more dicult. The number of IDUs found to be HIV-positive also has climbed at an increasingly rapid rate since 1992, and these ®gures are likely to represent only around 10% of all drug users, including non-dependent consumers. In Russia, the ocial estimate of illicit drug users in treatment rose from 91,000 in 1994 to 350,000 in 1997. Unocial sources claimed in 1998 that there were as many as 2.5 million drug users in Russia, of whom two-thirds are believed to inject. Perhaps 10±15% of the population has experimented with illegal drugs. In a recent study among school children in St. Petersburg (Russia), 21% reported experimentation with illicit drugs and 5% reported intravenous consumption (Davidova et al., 1998). Brunet, quoting ocial sources, reported 200,000 IDUs for that city alone (Brunet, 1997). Change in drug supply Social and cultural factors aecting injecting drug use The world production of heroin quadrupled in the last decade, creating new markets in the production areas and along transport routes (Burrow et al., 1998). Since the collapse of the USSR, opium growing and No systematic assessments of the determinants of drug demand have been conducted in the region. Opium poppies have long been cultivated in the former USSR, and drug injecting is not an entirely new Since IDUs tested are those ocially registered as such by the police, they probably represent a biased sample of all IDUs. L. Atlani et al. / Social Science & Medicine 50 (2000) 1547±1556 phenomenon (Rhodes et al., 1999). However, the recent expansion of drug use is evident, as shown in Odessa (Ukraine) where one survey among 500 street IDUs, found that 58% were younger than 25 years of age and that 66% were neither employed nor studying (De Jong, 1996). In the former USSR, the current combination of socio±economic and political factors has created what local people call the ``transition trauma''. Apart from the discontent and hopelessness generated by the current misery, a substantial ``generation gap'' has arisen in which anything perceived as coming from parents or traditional institutions Ð including information about drugs Ð is immediately dismissed. Today, the post communist economic malaise hits young people especially hard. Many youths have few prospects for even minimum economic stability. Independent housing for young families is out of reach, as state-backed mortgages have been abolished. At the same time, increased travel and access to western media via satellite television provide attractive images of a variety of alternative lifestyles. It increasingly presents stylish and exciting pictures of youth and beauty, frequently laced with covert or open references to drug use. Injecting drug use may appear to some youth subgroups as an expression of ``reactive hedonism'' (Grund, 1996) in which drugs increasingly substitute for or supplement traditional patterns of heavy alcohol consumption, but without the natural checks and balances that arise when people have jobs, a minimum of economic perspectives and associated responsibilities and security. For other sub-groups, drug consumption is clearly associated with unemployment and lack of perspective. Today, many in the younger generation see no grounds for hope in the future, given the sense of ``failure'' of the society their parents and elders worked so hard to build. Drug culture and consumption The spread of HIV in the region is also directly in¯uenced by current methods of drug production and consumption. Cultivation of poppies is increasing in the Central Asian Republics and in Russia as well. Poppy straw produced in the region is probably the most widely used source of opioids, including Russian and Ukrainian ``chromie'' (black) or ``himier'' (chemistry), as well as ``hanka'' in Russia and Kazakhstan 2 Field notes from work in the Kyrgyz Republic commissioned by UNDP in 1995, 1997 and 1998 (5 months). Personal communications with key informants in charge of services for IDUs in both the NGO and governmental sectors, based in Bishkek and Osh. 1551 (Rhodes et al., 1999). In Ukraine, the main injected drug is dimethylmorphine, a home-made liquid substance made from poppy straw, and in some countries of the region, drug users inject ephedrone, a derivative of ephedrin (De Jong, 1997). Liquid ``amphetaminlike'' drugs, ``vint'' (screw) or ``belie'' (white), are also produced in the region from ephedra or ephedrin (Rhodes et al., 1999). Sharing of equipment, the principal risk factor for HIV drug injection, is described as common in the region, with around 60% of regular users reporting borrowing and lending equipment (Davidova et al., 1998; Saar et al., 1998). Many potentially risky sharing behaviours have been reported in the region, and this sample is probably not complete. In addition to sharing equipment, speci®c risk practices facilitate the spread of HIV in the four countries with an explosive HIV drug-related epidemic. These practices are associated with the preparation and the distribution of homemade opium where the poppy straw is processed with the use of a range of chemicals. A strong group culture exists among IDUs, which may stimulate the sharing of injection equipment, as well as the purchasing and preparing of drugs and avoiding detection. Increased risk is also associated with the rental of injection equipment in so-called shooting galleries or parks. As the average age of IDUs decreases and initiation occurs as early as 13 or 14 years in some countries, young and inexperienced users tend to buy pre-packaged drugs rather than prepare their own ®xes. These preparations may come in used or non-sterile syringes. Central Asian professionals working on drug harm reduction call this phenomenon the ``Odessa syndrome'', referring to the situation in that Ukrainian city which pre®gured similar experiences elsewhere in the region.2 Opium straw is commonly processed at home for later consumption elsewhere (kitchen production): or it may be produced for a larger number of drug addicts (garage production). Group preparation (2±4 people) is preferred in order to save on drugs and other processing materials and to generate group solidarity. Producers and dealers may save drugs in contaminated reservoirs before distribution. IDUs in the region tend to share homemade drugs through ``backloading'', a distribution technique in which the syringes of a group of users are loaded ``at the back'' with a single syringe (De Jong, 1996, 1997). Even if drug users provide their own equipment when buying from the dealer Ð who is quite often a user himself Ð syringes are ®lled from the dealer's larger syringe or from the container. Chemicals are used during the drug preparation, and blood may be added at the end of the process. The blood is supposed to act as an adsorbent of these chemicals or as an alternative neutralising agent when 1552 L. Atlani et al. / Social Science & Medicine 50 (2000) 1547±1556 no other is available, or as a way to reduce the acidity of the preparation. The practice may also be used to establish the quality of the drug Ð if the blood coagulates quickly, it is a sign of high quality Ð or to provoke a euphoric rush (Reynolds, 1997; Boekham and Zmushko, 1998). The extent of the practice of adding blood to the drug during preparation is still unknown, but it has led several narcotics agencies in former Soviet Union countries to question the usefulness of establishing needle and syringe exchange services. Bridging populations: the key for further HIV spread ``Bridge'' populations can be de®ned as those men and women who have sex with both high-risk and lowrisk partners. ``Bridging'' risk behaviour involves possible transmission of HIV across dierent physical modes of transmission and across dierent risk behaviour subpopulations (De Jarlais and Padian, 1997). Morris et al. (1996) suggested that men having sex with both commercial and non-commercial sex partners in Thailand played a signi®cant role in HIV transmission in Thailand. Barnett and Whitesite (1997) highlighted in Ukraine the signi®cant ``bridging'' role of IDUs in spreading HIV from the drug user population to other populations through unprotected heterosexual intercourse. In Ukraine, most IDUs were described as not aware of the risks of unsafe sex: more than 50% reported sex with multiple partners, most of them being non-drug users (De Jong, 1996). In the context of the social factors described above, how important is the risk of HIV transmission from IDUs to the rest of the population? The HIV epidemic may or may not spread in the region, depending on the likelihood of expansion from the localised IDU epidemics to the so-called general population through sexual contact. Widespread HIV transmission among sexual partners of IDUs is likely to occur due to their low level of protected sex, according to behavioural surveys. Prostitution and drug use From the little data available, an increased risk of HIV transmission from IDUs practising commercial sex seems likely. Reports from Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and other countries of the former USSR suggest that a fraction of both 3 Field notes from work on non-governmental responses to HIV and AIDS in Kazakhstan, commissioned by UNDP and Path®nder International in 1995 and 1998 (6 weeks). Personal communications with local AIDS activists in Almaty. female and male IDUs practise prostitution. In Ukraine, 10±20% of IDUs engaged in sex with multiple partners in order to obtain drugs or money, and most sex workers working on the streets were also IDUs (Konings, 1996). A similar situation has been reported in Latvia, with low levels of condom use and an association between sex workers and opiate use; as well as in Lithuania, where both male and female IDUs are reported to be involved in the sex trade (Konings, 1996). In Kazakhstan, local AIDS activists report an increase of IDUs among sex workers, who turn to sex work to ®nance their ®xes and where the relatively high cost of drugs is not the only economic incentive for prostitution among IDUs. They note that police practices and the legal situation contribute to this link. An average consumer will need between US$60 and 300 a month for drug purchases. Other costs, such as bribes, are additional. Prosecution often stimulates drug tracking and consumption. There are usually two grounds for drug-related arrest: if caught for consumption, the user may be sent to one of the now under-budgeted treatment centres and, upon release, will be watched by police for a year. If arrested for tracking, the user may be sent to prison. Schools and health care centres are supposed to identify suspects and often notify police and treatment centres, which co-ordinate their activities closely. In practical terms, treatment centres, health services and the police may be indistinguishable to drug users. Once a person is registered as an IDU or simply known by the police unocially, he/she may be arrested for presumption of both consumption and dealing. Under these circumstances, it appears that police may extort bribes, with the threat of a new prison term. Some IDUs have reported that they have then been regularly ``contacted'' by the police and thus had to generate income to pay the bribes and avoid imprisonment. Further prostitution or drug tracking may be the source of these funds.3 According to many anecdotal reports, commercial sex activities have increased exponentially in the region, arising both from increased demand, increased poverty among women, and the opportunities for quick and sizeable material rewards. However, no data on the size of the prostitute population are available, and the extent to which men frequent prostitutes is not known. Prostitution in the former USSR is described as an adaptation strategy for thousands facing loss of their previous income (Kon and Riordan, 1993; Visser et al., 1993; Kon, 1995; Lunin et al., 1995). In the Latvian capital of Riga, where an estimated 6000 prostitutes are active, about 1000 of the poorest come from rural areas or abroad to work on the streets. They are often adolescents, and child prostitution has also been L. Atlani et al. / Social Science & Medicine 50 (2000) 1547±1556 reported. Among 107 sex workers surveyed, unemployment and miserable living conditions were the main reasons for their recruitment to prostitution (Konings, 1996). Economic crisis also leads to temporary or ``seasonal'' sex work in foreign countries involving women from the Community of Independent States (CIS). Women facing severe hardships leave home and become sex workers to secure the means for their families' survival. Such situations are common in Central Asia and the Caucasus where poor women travel abroad for short periods, mainly to Turkey, practice commercial sex long enough to accumulate a small amount of capital, buy goods for reselling, and return home to open a small business.34 Temporary prostitution is also reported in the region particularly among youth. A study in St. Petersburg showed that 10% of teenagers and young adults consider prostitution as an acceptable and legal way of making money (Afanasyev and Skorobogatov, 1995). In Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, underground commercial sex occurs among young women from well-educated families. They are often students relying on money from their families and educated along Muslim principles. The girls enter prostitution for the luxuries associated with it, especially when foreigners are involved. At the same time, they continue to live with their parents, who are unaware of their daughters' activities. The level of STDs and abortion among them is quite high, indicating that condoms are rarely used in sexual relations.4 The borderline between this activity and more permanent forms of prostitution may not always be easy to de®ne and may continue to shift as conditions change. Knowledge of HIV is high among high-class prostitutes and those working in salons, massage parlours, saunas and hotels, but condom use depends on the client. Knowledge remains low among those working in railway stations and on the streets, most of whom do not visit health services and almost never use condoms (Kurova et al., 1998). High-class prostitutes, ``call girls'' or those organised in apartments or saunas may have more options for self-protection such as condom use, while street workers rarely can enjoy this luxury. Even in the hotel-based sex industry, consistent condom use is uncommon. Among 78 sex workers in three hotels in St. Petersburg, only 44% reported using condoms with every client (Platoshina and Chaika, 1995). A 1997 study in Kyrgyzstan showed that in bathhouses, bars 4 Field notes from visits to Baku, Azerbaijan, from work commissioned by UNDP and conducted in 1997, 1998 and 1999 (3 months). Personal communications with local AIDS activists, dermato-venerologists and gynecologists. 1553 and brothel apartments (kvartira), condoms were available and used, while on the street, condom use was low (Oostvogels, 1997). In addition, the high mobility among prostitutes in the region may increase their vulnerability to HIV. Many sex workers are engaging in prostitution abroad, especially in Western Europe, for a short period before returning home. Although many sex workers come independently, the majority are recruited by international prostitution networks, which may entrap them with promises of jobs as au pair domestics, nannies or the like. Therefore, although part of a well-organised sex business, these women may have little awareness of health risks. Those working in Turkish brothels are reportedly required by pimps to meet the clients' demands and not use condoms. Furthermore, many prostitutes operate illegally in rough conditions characterised by considerable violence and crime. As such, condom use and STD treatment are not their primary concerns (Konings, 1996). The HIV±syphilis link The dynamics of intravenous drug use Ð injection culture and sexual and contraceptive behaviour Ð are known to vary over time and over geographic locations. However, given the scope of the rapidly emerging injection-drug HIV epidemic in the region, the potential exists for further spread of HIV through heterosexual transmission. Sex workers are at risk of acquiring HIV through both sexual and drug use behaviour. Wherever condom use is low, they represent one of the groups most vulnerable to both HIV and STDs and, in a still lowprevalence epidemic, they are among the ®rst hit. Few data are available on the prevalence of HIV among prostitutes in the region. Only in the Ukraine data indicate at national level a slow but persistent increase of HIV among registered sex workers over time: from a low 0.004% in 1993 to 0.4% in 1996 (Konings, 1996). A study in Kaliningrad, in the Russian Federation, reported a very high prevalence of 32% among 103 street sex workers; 33 were known to be injecting drug users (Brunet, 1997; Liitsola et al., 1998). Among sex workers and their clients, STD rates seem to have increased recently, raising a concern about their potential role as co-factors in driving a second wave of HIV infection. In Lithuania in 1996, half of 43 sex workers given a medical exam had an STD (Konings, 1996). In Latvia, no prostitutes were HIVpositive, but rates of gonorrhoea (10.2%) and syphilis (15.7%) were high (Kurova et al., 1998). In the Ukrainian city of Odessa, syphilis prevalence among a small group of prostitutes was close to 10% in 1997. In St. 1554 L. Atlani et al. / Social Science & Medicine 50 (2000) 1547±1556 Petersburg, 46% of hotel prostitutes had at least one STD in the previous year (Afanasyev and Skorobogatov, 1995). Most of the former USSR countries are currently experiencing a rapid increase in the incidence of syphilis. Since 1990, for instance, prevalence has increased in Russia from 5.4 per 100,000 inhabitants to 270 per 100,000 in 1997. Rates of increase are much higher in speci®c cities such as Kaliningrad where the syphilis morbidity rate in 1997 was almost 40% higher (365 per 100,000) than in the rest of the country (Chaika, 1998). Similar trends and levels are reported in Belarus and Kazakhstan, and to a lesser extend in Ukraine. Other STDs such as gonorrhoea and chlamydia are also reported to be increasing. As with HIV, these epidemics appear to be rooted in a combination of socio±economic factors, including changes in sexual behaviour and norms (Westho et al., 1996; Chervyakov and Kon, 1998), reduced access to appropriate health services, and inadequacy of legislation related to STD control (Linglof, 1995; Tichonova et al., 1997). However, there is still no con®rmation that the two epidemics will overlap and create a major heterosexually-transmitted HIV epidemic in the future. Discussion Although evidence from the region remains limited, there is certainly cause for alarm about the capacity of current social conditions in the former USSR to generate an explosive HIV epidemic. Experience elsewhere in the world, together with initial reports indicate that injection drug use and commercial sex are increasing due to the region's social and economic dislocation and the accompanying psychological stress and alienation, especially among young people. Just as health and welfare services deteriorate to a clearly inadequate state, drug pricing and availability patterns are changing dynamically as international producers and traf®ckers take advantage of new opportunities, such as the newly opened borders between Eastern and Western Europe. However, an increase in drug consumption does not necessarily imply an increase in drug injecting everywhere or, more signi®cantly for the HIV epidemic, an increase in the sharing of injecting equipment and addiction-related commercial sex activity. While evidence from some countries in the former Soviet Union suggests that this is indeed the case (Ukraine), it has not been demonstrated that HIV will reach other groups through bridge populations as has been seen in Thailand (Morris et al., 1996). Sexual transmission patterns also may or may not follow known routes. Here, the evidence of a dramatic increase in syphilis and other STDs suggests at least a potential for a second HIV wave, both for the increased high-risk sexual behaviour taking place and for the role of ulcerative STDs in facilitating HIV transmission. To forecast the directions of HIV spread in the former Soviet Union, more needs to be known about the determinants of risk behaviours, the dynamics of the HIV/STD epidemic, the sexual mixing patterns, and the response to various interventions in vulnerable groups. This supposes a shift from a narrow epidemiological perspective to a much broader comprehensive approach that should include more qualitative and quantitative work on behaviours and vulnerability factors. Individual behaviours occur in complex socio± economic and cultural contexts, and analysis that removes them from their broader settings ignores essential in¯uences. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is virtually impossible to disengage individual risk behaviour from environmental and economic factors in determining and understanding vulnerability to HIV. It is thus important to develop a holistic, ethnographic view of the cultural and economic context in the region. This in turn should lead to a focus not only on interventions aimed at ``persuading'' individuals or groups to adopt certain behaviours Ð still the most common approach in the countries of the former Soviet Union Ð but on interventions ``enabling'' them to do so, or at least easing the way. Opportunities still exist to prevent further spread of STD and HIV infections in the region through innovative enabling approaches such as those implemented in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan. However, experts have expressed concern about governmental policy responses in Russia and in other countries such as Belarus. In Russia, various attempts to develop sex education in schools and programs among men having sex with men were prevented by a coalition of political forces (Chervyakov and Kon, 1998). In many countries of the region, HIV/AIDS prevention and care interventions are still impeded by a social, and sometimes legal and ethical environment which is not conducive to HIV prevention or to the care and support of people living with HIV. Outdated contagious disease laws and discriminatory regulations remain in force in several countries; names and other details of persons tested HIV-positive are often recorded for contact tracing and surveillance; con®dentiality is at times compromised or non-existent; and discrimination and stigmatisation often follow a positive HIV antibody test. At the same time, the response from ``civil society'' remains generally weak. For decades, independent grassroots action was prohibited, and volunteer work L. Atlani et al. / Social Science & Medicine 50 (2000) 1547±1556 was limited to ocially sanctioned activities carried out by state-directed mass organisations. This has inhibited the development of community-based responses among those directly aected by the epidemic, particularly people living with HIV (Atlani and Frasca, 1995). Today, civil society and non-governmental organisations dealing with HIV/AIDS are burgeoning. 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